Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, October 3,2009

Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack

S. Florida at Syracuse
Play: S. Florida -6

Usf over SYRACUSE - The Bulls have won all 4 outscoring the Orange 140-33. LY the Bulls allowed SU 208 yds on 38 plays in the 1H, but just 0 yds in 18 plays in the 2H. The last time USF played here we used them as our ‘07 College GOY and they rolled 41-10 (-16’). The Bulls lost QB Grothe and now rFr Daniels (PS#75) is making his 2nd road start after facing FSU’s fastest defense ever. He delivered in his hometown with a 17-7 win over #18 FSU producing 341 of USF’s 368 yds ttl off and now looks to replace Grothe’s #’s vs Syr (983 yds and 9 TD’s L3Y). Syr defeated Maine 41-24 LW despite being outgained 430-385 as they trailed 17-10 in the 3Q before scoring 31 straight points. SU is at .500 for the 1st time in 3Y. QB Paulus (PS#4) is avg 222 ypg (68%) with a 6-4 ratio while the run game is avg just 99 ypg (3.1). The Syr D is all’g 83 rush ypg (Penn St 78), but has all’d 311 ypg pass (66%) and have notoriously had trouble with mobile QB’s. USF has the offensive edge (#49-90) and def edge (#23-85). USF is just 3-7 as an AF but SU is 4-8 as a HD.

Clemson at Maryland
Play: Clemson -12

Clemson Over MARYLAND - In last meeting here, CU RB Davis guaranteed a win over a banged up MD team and CU dominated. The visitor has won 4 straight (3 decided by 4 or less). LY the Tigers held the Terps to 74 1H yds but were outscored 14-0 in the 2H. Last time here Clemson led 30-3 in the 4Q. MD is 6-16 vs CU but upset #20 Clemson 20-17 on the road LY. Clemson has a bye next week. MD is 6-4 as a HD (lost LW vs Rutgers). MD has committed 13 TO’s in 4 gms and is 1-3 for the 1st time S/’97. QB Turner is avg 243 ypg (60%) with a 4-5 ratio. CU had some missed opportunities LW and came up short vs #11 TCU and the Tigers have lost 7 of their L/8 by a TD or less. QB Parker is avg 179 ypg (47%) with a 5-4 ratio. CU does have a lot of speed in Spiller and Ford and the defense is an improving aspect.

Toledo at Ball State
Play: Toledo -4

Toledo Over BALL ST - Toledo is the 3rd MOST exp team in the country and Ball St is the 2nd least. LY Ball dominated 31-0 and the Cards have won the L/3 by an avg of 31-12. After going undefeated in the reg ssn LY Ball St is 0-4, but has covered the L/2 as a dog incl LW vs Aub (+32). The Cardinals were only outFD’d 21-19 but were outgained 560-260. QB Page is avg 127 ypg (48%) with a 3-5 ratio. He is playing behind an inexperienced OL, which has given up 10 sks already after giving up just 14 LY. RB Lewis who led the MAC in rushing LY (124 ypg) has just 185 yds (46.2 ypg). LW Toledo led FIU 17-3 at the half but had to hold on despite a 566-372 yd edge. UT QB Opelt has thrown for over 300 yds in 3 of 4 gms. He is avg 321 ypg (58%) with a 9-4 ratio and has rushed for 127 (7.0). UT’s top rusher is Collins with 360 (6.5). Toledo is 0-4 as an AF (none S/‘06) but Toledo’s offensive edge (#44-113) is just to big for Ball St to get past.

Temple at E.Michigan
Play: Temple -6

Temple over E MICHIGAN - EM is 0-4 SU vs Temple with 4 single digit losses. LY EM QB Schmitt set school records (50 of 76, 484 yds) in a 55-52 loss as the tms comb for 49 pts in the 4Q. However, Schmitt suffered a knee inj vs Mich and is OFY. They benefitted from a bye as it gave them a chance to prep either true frosh Alex Gillett (PS#194) or Kyle McMahon (PS#288), who had 2 starts LY. This is Temple’s 1st trip to Ypsilanti in MAC play. Temple has the large def edge (#57-116) but is in the unfamiliar role of a conf AF (0-1). EM is 1-5 ATS as a HD vs non-Mich MAC teams. TU is led by QB Charlton, who is avg 206 ypg (51%) with a 3-4 ratio and RB Pierce with 184 yds (5.6). While several MAC teams have lost key players, Temple shows that they finally have the depth to compete in the MAC.

Kansas State at Iowa State
Play: Kansas State +3

Kansas St (+) Over Iowa St (Kansas City) - B12 opener for both. K-St is 12-3 vs ISU winning by 27 ppg. Snyder did drop his L/2 to the Cylcones who are on a 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) run. The HT has won 4 straight but this is in KC and the Wildcats should have the crowd edge. K-St has 2 wins vs FCS tms but did outFD UCLA 19-16 on the road. QB Coffman is avg 171 ypg (58%) with a 2-4 ratio but the offense goes through RB Thomas who has 433 yds (4.8, 3 100+ yd gms). LW, Paul Rhoads became the 1st ISU HC to start 3-1 in his rookie ssn S/’31. QB Arnaud is avg 156 ypg (55%) with a 5-4 ratio. RB Robinson (3 straight 100+) has 453 yds (5.7). Both tms lost their BCS non-conf gms as expected and K-St led ULL late. ISU has dropped 9 straight B12 gms (3-6 ATS) and K-St has the coaching edge and the better def (#43-97).

W. Michigan at No. Illinois
Play: W. Michigan +7

W Michigan (+) Over N ILLINOIS - The last 3 meetings have been decided by an avg 3 ppg with WM winning all 3. LY RB West had a career best 175 yds (7.0) rushing in a 29-26 win. The Huskies suffered a letdown LW, as they lost to Idaho 34-31 a week after upsetting Purdue. NI was outgained 477-312 but came up just short. WM trailed Hofstra 7-0 and 10-3 before scoring 21 unanswered pts and finished with a 471-329 yd edge. WM QB Tim Hiller is avg 262 ypg (66%) with an 8-3 ratio, while West leads with 296 yds (4.2). NI QB Chandler Harnish is avg 169 ypg (66%) with a 5-1 ratio, while RB Me’co Brown leads with 377 (6.0). NI is 1-7 ATS as a conf HF but are 3-1 ATS and should finally be on the winning side of a close game.

Air Force at Navy
Play: Air Force +3.5

Air Force (+) Over NAVY - AF was 19-2 vs Navy from ‘82-‘02, but has lost a series high 6 straight (5 outright upsets) by just a comb 33 pts. AF has, however, outgained Navy in 4 of the 6 gms. LY Navy got 2 blocked punts returned for TD’s to pull out a 33-27 win (+6) on the road. AF did have 411-244 yd and 20-13 FD edges. TY Air Force has been impressive going 3-1 and leads the nation in rushing with 319 ypg (4.8). LW QB Dietz got his 1st career st in a 26-14 win over SDSt in which AF had a +6 TO margin including 2 defensive TD’s. Meanwhile, Navy is coming off a disappointing win against WKU in which they gave up 434 yds. Navy QB Dobbs is the leading rusher with 294 yards (3.0) and 9 TD’s. This is AF’s 3rd road game in 4 wks and is sandwiched between two MWC gms. However, Navy is the most important game on the AF schedule as the winner has won the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy the L/12Y and this game will come down to the wire (5 of L/6 decided by TD or less).

Tulsa at Rice
Play: Tulsa -15

Tulsa over RICE - The last meeting here, Tulsa (-13’) barely escaped a fired up Rice team 48-43 (Rice 700-592 yd edge). LY, TU outscored Rice 42-14 in the 2H for a 63-28 home win vs a potent Owl offense. Tulsa is just 6-9 ATS as an AF, but is on a 9-3 run as a DD fav (2-0 TY). This is also Tulsa’s 4th road game in 5 weeks, but they have a bye on deck and are off a 56-3 waxing of FCS Sam Houston St. Rice is 17-6-1 as a HD and went 5-1 ATS at home LY, but that was with a much more experienced squad. They lost 36-17 to Vandy (+7) in that role LW. That game was actually tied at the half, but Vandy scored 20 straight pts in the 2H. QB Fanuzzi, who splits snaps with Shepherd, DNP LW (shldr, check status). Tulsa has all the edges (off #33-112, D #59-112, ST #23-46). While some of the angles point to Rice, TU usually puts the hammer down against weaker foes, and already has covered their 2 road fav roles by 10 and 17 points.

Oklahoma at Miami (FL)
Play: Miami (FL) +7.5

MIAMI, FL Over Oklahoma - In the last meeting in ‘07, UM was mauled, being outgained 411-139 and outFD’d 25-7. Under Stoops, OU is 11-3 vs BCS non-conf tms in the reg ssn w/an avg score 39-23. UM is 8-1 at home vs current non-conf BCS teams winning by 21 ppg. OU is off a bye while UM just played GT and VT. UM looked very impressive up until LW (handcuffed by the Hokie def with just 209 yds) and are led by QB Harris who is avg 269 ypg (60%) with a 5-3 ratio. OU has pitched B2B shutouts vs weaker foes but did hold BYU to just 14 pts. QB Jones has filled in nicely for Bradford, avg 224 ypg (61%) with a 9-3 ratio. OU has the better def (#2-21) but the OL edge goes to the ‘Canes as they face a QB in his 1st road start in the heat/humidity of FL and need to refocus facing another tough ranked opp here.

Colorado State at Idaho
Play: Idaho +4

IDAHO (+) over Colorado St - It’s the 3rd year of the Akey era at Idaho and the Vandals are riding high as they are off to a 3-1 start, their best since S/’94. The Vandals’ 3 wins TY equal their combined total for ‘07 and ‘08. UI is on an 8-2 ATS run (4-0 TY) after ending a 3-17 drought. UI QB Enderle is avg 240 ypg (64%) with a 5-2 ratio including 18-27 for 270 yds and 3 TD’s LW vs NI and he has spread the ball around to 10 different receivers. CSU QB Stucker is avg 237 ypg (55%) with a 6-5 ratio and he was 30-50 for 372 yds and 2 TD’s LW. CSU had a 6 gm win streak snapped LW to BYU but the Rams are 6-2 in gms decided by one score or less under HC Fairchild and are on a 5-2 ATS run. While Idaho is perfect in the ATS column, they are a fundamentally sound team that can finally use their unique home edge of the Kibbie Dome.

Member Plays

Memphis at Central Florida
Play: Memphis +7.5

Memphis (+) Over UCF - The Tigers have been outscored 94-37 in the L/2 gms at UCF. Memphis is 16-27 SU on the road under West and UCF is 8-4-1 ATS in Bright House Networks Stadium and has a bye on deck. The Knights are coming off a 19-14 loss at EC (outgained 403-336). QB Hodges will be making his 3rd start and is avg 174 ypg (63%) with a 4-5 ratio (threw 4 int LW). RB Harvey leads with 317 yds, but is avg just 3.7 ypc. Memphis also has a QB making his 3rd start in Soph Tyler Bass. He did not fare that well in his 2nd start, a 27-16 home loss to Marshall (50%, 323, 1-2) and the Tigers are now 0-3 SU/ATS vs FBS schools. Bass is avg 186 ypg (65%) with a 5-3 ratio and has also rushed for 161 (4.6). Mem should get workhorse RB Steele (119, 5.0) back here after he missed the L/2. UCF has a large ST’s edge (#4-102) and that could be the difference in what we expect to be a close game.

PURELOCK

Northern Illinois -6.5

Northcoast Earlybird

San Diego State

Wunderdog

Game: South Florida at Syracuse
Pick: 3 units South Florida -6.5

Syracuse has been a surprise this season, winning back-to-back games for the first time since 2006. While every win counts equally in the standings, you can hardly get excited about a win over Northwestern and a come-from-behind win at home over a non-BCS team in Maine. The Bulls got a bad break when they lost QB Matt Grothe for the year. No one gave them a chance going to Florida State with an untested QB, especially with the Seminoles coming off a game in which they hung 54 on BCS contender BYU. But South Florida manhandled the Seminoles, allowing them just seven points. All BJ Daniels did at QB for the Bulls was connect on two first-half TD passes. He was also the Bulls leading rusher with 126 yards. So, the Bulls may actually have an upgrade at QB here and are off to a 4-0 start. The last time these teams met it was 45-13 South Florida a year ago. Two years ago in Syracuse, the Bulls ran away with a 41-10 rout. Both of those games featured the Bulls favored by three TDs and here a TD advantage gets us the cover. I don't think Syracuse has bridged the gap that much. I'm going with South Florida here.

Game: Florida State at Boston College
Pick: 3 units Boston College +3.5

Will the real Florida State Seminoles please stand up? This is a very mysterious team. The Noles opened vs. Miami, had the Hurricanes out-stated for three quarters getting up by nine, then became a different team and lost. They played home vs. Jacksonville State as a huge favorite and needed a miracle finish just to win. They then go out to BYU, who many thought could crack the BCS Bowl bids, play big-time and hang 54 on the Cougars on the road. Then they come home against a South Florida team starting a backup QB in his first game and lose at home by 10 points. Whatever is going on something just isn't right. And Boston College isn't the kind of team that you can play an incomplete game with on the road and win. The Eagles never seem to have the talked-about team but all they do is win football games, get Bowl bids and win those. The Eagles are 26-5 at home in their last 31, so they won't be an easy out here - far from it. The Noles have not been a team to be bullish on as a favorite, standing in at just 7-16-1 ATS when posted as a chalk from 3.5-10 points. The Eagles have relished in this very same role as they are 11-3 ATS as a dog of 3.5-10. The Eagle has landed and it takes down the Noles. I'm on Boston College in this one.

Game: Wisconsin at Minnesota
Pick: 2 units Wisconsin +3

These two teams have certainly played some exciting high-scoring games as the last nine have soared over the total. Wisconsin has been a steady program under Coach Brent Bielema as they have not dropped a bit under his regime at 32-11 in his 43 games. Minnesota coach Tim Brewster has gotten the Gophers program back on its feet with six more wins last year compared to the 2007-08 season. Wisconsin has always been a good, strong defensive team that runs the ball well, but finally they appear to have a competent QB in Scott Tolzien that can mix things up. Tolzien has thrown for eight TD passes already with just two picks, and is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. The Golden Gophers struggled against Syracuse before winning in OT, had a battle with Air Force, and lost to California. QB Adam Weber has not been great with five TDs and five INTs, averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt. This will be just the fourth time the Gophers have laid points to Wisconsin, and they have never covered. Additionally they are just 4-14 SU and ATS against Wisconsin in their last 18 overall. This will be a close game, and the Badgers usually find a way to get it done.

Game: Toledo + USC at Parlay
Pick: 4 units on Parlay +125

I really like both of these teams to win their games outright. On the moneyline Toledo is -190 and USC is -200. When these two are put together in a two-team moneyline parlay the payout is +125. The Rockets are 47-8 straight-up over the past 15 years when scoring 28+ points in a game and I like them to score a lot in their game vs. Ball State, a team that has allowed over 30 per game this season. As for USC, they have plenty of motivation in their game against Cal. The sting of the loss to Washington two weeks ago is still fresh in their minds. They simply must win-out to hold on to any hopes of a BCS Championship. In addition, they will be playing hard for teammate Stafon Johnson who was seriously injured this week in the weight room. The Golden Bears were embarrassed last week in a 42-3 loss to Oregon and won't be right here. Jahvid Best is great, but he was shut down last year in this matchup and the USC defense has held opponents this year to just 60 yards rushing per game on average. USC doesn't lose the games vs. good competition - they lose the ones to the cupcakes. Under Pete Carroll the Trojans are 36-5 straight-up vs. teams at .600 or better. I like both Toledo and USC to notch wins and I think there is very good value on the +125 payout on a parlay of the two on the moneyline.

Game: Alabama at Kentucky
Pick: 4 units Kentucky +16

It has been a long time since Alabama has lost a regular season football game, and I don't think it will come at Kentucky. But notching a blowout is another story. The Tide boasts one of the top defenses in the country, but will be taking to the road for the first time with a raw QB in Greg McElroy and we have already seen many top 10 teams treated to a loss already this season. Kentucky fell to Florida last week at home, so they aren't likely to cause 'Bama to get up for this game. And the Tide has a huge one on deck with Ole Miss on the road. So it's plausible for the Tide to think they can get away without expending much energy here. Remember a year ago, the Wildcats went into Alabama and lost by just three points as a dog of the same amount as posted at home here for this one. Once more Kentucky is the “Mildcats” no more as they have grabbed the money in 21 of their last 31 as a dog of 10.5 or more. When you mark them as a home dog of 10.5 or more it becomes very profitable as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 in that situation. It looked easy last year for Alabama and it wasn't. Now the Tide must try to topple the same number on the road with a QB making his first appearance out of the comforts of home. I like the Wildcats here.

Game: Temple at Eastern Michigan
Pick: 4 units Eastern Michigan +7

There appears to be one given each year in the MAC. That given is that Temple won't win the conference championship, and neither will Eastern Michigan. It is hard to imagine the Owls in this spot as nearly a TD favorite on the road. The fact is that this Owls team is 6-32 ATS off a straight-up win - hardly the kind of team you want your money on. They have beaten Eastern Michigan two straight, but have failed to cover in either one and now are a road favorite. The last 10 times the Owls have taken on this role, they have failed to get the money in seven of them. The Eagles have chased an ATS loss with an ATS win in four of their last five and the Eagles are also flying high in October at 13-5 ATS. So once they get their wings in September, they have become a bad team that delivers the cash. Temple beat up on Buffalo last game 37-13. This team hasn't had many big wins over the past fifteen years, notching just 12 wins by a margin of 17+ points. In the next game after the big wins, they have gone just 2-10 ATS. It looks ugly from both sides, but getting points has been pretty for Eastern Michigan, while the Owls don't seem to take to layin’ them. Eastern Michigan gets the call here.

Game: Western Michigan at Northern Illinois
Pick: 2 units Northern Illinois -6.5

The Broncos are a one-dimensional team that relies on the pass to move the football, but many times when the field gets short they struggle to find the endzone without a running game. Despite their 271 yards passing per game, the Broncos have averaged just 24 points per game. They ran for 159 yards against a non-BCS team and, even with that, they average under 100 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos’ defense has been lacking stopping the run or pass, allowing almost 400 yards per game. The Huskies should take advantage of the Broncos inability to stop the run. Western Michigan is yielding 157 yards per game on the ground, while the Huskies are churning out 188 per game of their own with Me'co Brown averaging six yards a pop. The Huskies have allowed seven rushing TDs this season, but that isn't what Western Michigan does well. The Broncos have yet to find the win column on the road at 0-2 and have run their road ineptness to 0-5 ATS in their last five. The Huskies have come up big at 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a 3.5-10 point favorite. The Broncos are also just 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Huskies, and are 0-6 ATS on the road against Northern Illinois. I'm going with Northern Illinois to continue their home dominance in this one.

Game: Air Force at Navy
Pick: 4 units Navy -2.5

In this battle for the coveted Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, the Naval Academy has won six years in a row. While the Air Force holds a commanding 25-16 all-time edge in the series, Navy has been the better team in recent years taking out the Falcons six straight years. Air Force had a lot of problems on the road losing to Minnesota and then last week, the offense could not find the end-zone against a rather weak San Diego State team. Air Force has thrived on defense, where they lead the country averaging +3.25 turnovers per game. It will be difficult for Air Force to score on the Navy defense that is better than their No. 71 passing yards allowed ranking, mainly due to stepping up in class vs. Pittsburgh and Ohio State. Air Force usually has a decent team and isn’t listed as a dog often, but have struggled to win when they are losing their last four ATS. Navy has pounded the MWC as they have a 12-1 ATS record in their last 13 against them and, overall as a favorite of three points or less, Navy has delivered the cash to a 6-1 ATS mark. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS against Navy in the last six meetings and I don't see this as the year they break through. Navy gets the call in this one.

Game: Washington at Notre Dame
Pick: 3 units Notre Dame -12.5

The Huskies shocked the NCAAF world with a win over the USC Trojans two weeks ago, delivering a blow to the Trojans' BCS Championship hopes. Washington was one of our upset alerts that came through. But as I said last week when fading the same Huskies team, that was more about a USC letdown than the strength of Washington. The Huskies played premier in that game for sure, but they aren't really a quality team. I am again fading them this week. The Huskies caught the Trojans napping, which USC seems to do once a year. If you remember, they lost to Oregon State last year as a 24-point favorite and two years ago they lost to Stanford as a 39-point favorite. The Huskies, after their big win, returned to reality as they took to the road for the first time and lost to Stanford by 20. This is still a team that is 2-14 in their last 16 games and 1-10 in their last 11 on the road. The Huskies have dropped their last five on the road by 20, 41, 56, 34 and 34 points for an average margin of 37 points per game to teams with a winning record. The Irish come in one late TD drive at Michigan from being 4-0. They are a bit banged up, but are still head and shoulders better than this Huskies team and won't get caught napping here. The Huskies are just 1-9 ATS after scoring 20 or less and 0-6 ATS in their last six on the road. They have not covered against the Irish in five straight meetings. The Irish get a big win here.

Game: Ohio State at Indiana
Pick: 3 units Ohio State -17.5

It has been a long time since the Indiana Hoosiers have beaten Ohio State. You have to go back to 1988 (over 20 years ago) to find the Hoosiers’ last win. Over the years Ohio State has been a powerful team just about every year and Indiana would have glimpses of success, then fall back. What is amazing is the absolute dominance Ohio State has had on this Indiana team. The Hoosiers have not scored more than 17 points against the Buckeyes since 1991! The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have scored 30+ in seven of the last eight meetings. The Hoosiers, over that same period, have been held to an average of eight points per game. The Buckeyes have also won 15 straight on the road in the Big-10. This is one of the best defensive Buckeyes teams in recent years, coming to Bloomington off of two consecutive shutouts for the first time since '96. The Buckeyes aren't just winning Big-10 games they are also 23-8 ATS in their last 31 against conference foes, including 17-5 ATS on the road in conference play. The Hoosiers are cash-poor as a dog of 10+ coming in with just a 4-10 ATS mark. The Buckeyes have covered the last four against the Hoosiers. Look for Ohio State to make it five straight.

Game: S M U at T C U
Pick: 3 units T C U -28

This one should become very ugly. SMU has put up some offense with their run-and-shoot, but against some real weak defensive teams. And even against that weak competition, QB Bo Levi Mitchell has tossed eight INTs. They are going to run into the best defense they have seen in a while with TCU. I expect this offense to make a lot of errors and would not be surprised to see a couple of Horned Frog defensive scores as they will be in the Mustangs’ backfield all game long. TCU boasts a high-octane offense behind QB Andy Dalton and RB Joe Turner. WR Jimmy Young doesn't catch many, but has a way to get behind a defense and is turning in over 21 yards per catch. Last year the Frogs won by 41 and took a Mitchell serve back the other way for a score. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it again and again. Texas Christian in a blowout.

Dr. Bob

Purdue (-7) 2-Stars at -7 or less. Strong Opinion from 7.5 to 9.
Toledo (-4) 3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars from 4 1/2 to 7 (the line dropped from 4 1/2 to -4 (3 1/2 at some books) a couple of minutes before it was released on the release page and it may go back down to -4).
Michigan State (-3) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars from -3 1/2 to -5.
Oregon (-33 1/2) 2-Stars at -35 or less.
Tulsa (-16) 3-Stars at -17 or less, 2-Stars up to -20.
San Diego State (-16 1/2) 2-Stars at -17 or less. Strong Opinion from -17.5 to -19.

Strong Opinions
North Carolina (-12 1/2) Strong Opinion at -14 or less.
Temple (-6) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Georgia (-3) Strong Opinion at -3 or less.
UL Monroe (-6) Strong Opinion at -6 or less.

Strike Point Sports

4-Unit Play. Take Iowa State -2.5 over Kansas State

Outside of a bad loss to rival Iowa, the Cyclones have done this year with a 3-1 start. Iowa State has a solid balance attack on offense, and the defense has also done their part to help cover each of their spreads in victory. ISU has covered four of the last five meetings, and in this one they come in as the better overall team. Kansas State's struggles are evident, and I think Iowa State keeps it going in the right direction and scores a victory in Big 12 play.

5-Unit Play. Take LSU +3 over Georgia

While everyone is quick to label LSU as an unproven commodity, I really like them in this big SEC match-up. Defense always seems to play the biggest factor when two Southeastern powers collide, and so far the Bulldogs defense has not shown up this year. Georgia is allowing 30 points per game, and so far you can pretty much move the ball against them through the air and on the ground. But in this one I see a low scoring game, and that gives the edge to the Tigers and their strong defense. UGA is 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite. I can understand why they are favored, playing Between The Hedges, but LSU is going to leave Athens with an outright win.

4-Unit Play. Take N.C. State +2.5 over Wake Forest

Quarterback play has gone a long way to dictate ACC play this season, with most of the teams in this conference having comparable defenses and supporting weapons on offense. That being said, give me sophomore Russell Wilson. All this kid has done is set the NCAA record for most pass attempts without an interception, and right now he is the most efficient quarterback in all of college football. Conversely, Riley Skinner looks more like the turnover machine that plagued this Wake Forest team last season. N.C. State has bounced back well from their season opening loss at home to South Carolina. They make it a fourth straight victory, this one coming on the road.

4-Unit Play. Take Washington +13 over Notre Dame

It's understandable to see how UW lost at Stanford last week, given the letdown scenario, but the Cardinal were the better team that night and played exceptionally well. Now the Huskies look to find the winner's circle, and this is another big game for them. With a banged up offense and a defense that I still don't feel is doing anything special, I think the points are more than enough. Jake Locker will match Jimmy Clausen in production, and the Washington defense will make ammends for their bad effort last time out here. Maybe not an outright victory for Steve Sarkisian, but his troops get the check mark and the cover.

5-Unit Play. Take Arkansas -1.5 over Texas A&M

So far the Hogs defense has been a major disappointment. But to their credit, they have faced some stiff tests so far. And having been challenged, that benefits them more than will a puff schedule the first month for the Aggies. Playing on a neutral field, we'll ride with a well prepared SEC team. Texas A&M's 3-0 record means nothing with wins over not one legit team. So essentially it's not realistic to make a case for them. At least we know Ryan Mallett and his cannon arm can move the ball down the field, while Michael Smith is a waterbug and explosive threat out of the backfield. They get a nice win after a couple of conference setbacks.

5-Unit Play. Take Auburn +2.5 over Tennessee

Again we have another SEC match-up where defense could quite possibly dictate all night long. But even more so, Tennessee's Jonathan Crompton has been a turnover waiting to happen. In fact, he has been awful. I don't think he will find his groove against a very good Tigers defense. And while they do their part, Auburn's offense has quietly produced to the tune of 45 points and over 500 yards per game. Of course it won't be that much in Knoxville, but enough for a War Eagle victory.

4-Unit Play. Take California +4.5 over USC

While this Pac-10 game took a big hit with both teams already having a loss, it still remains arguably the biggest conference game of the year because the rest of the league hasn't stepped up to the plate as a full season contender. Maybe UCLA, but the winner here is still the frontrunner in my mind. And that will be Cal. Just an awful home loss to Oregon, as he Bears just didn't show up. But maybe that's good for them to get even more focused and prepared for the Trojans. Cal is still 10-1 ATS in their last eleven home games in Berkeley. And while Cal looked bad last Saturday, you could USC was just as unimpressive with a 27-6 result to lowly Wazzou. Southern Cal has failed to cover their last three spreads, and the dogged Golden Bears win outright at home.

2-Unit Play. Florida State/Boston College 'Under' 46
2-Unit Play. Penn State/Illinois 'Under' 46
2-Unit Play. Georgia Tech/Mississippi State 'Under' 46.5

Doc's Sports

8 Unit Play. Take Minnesota -2½ over Wisconsin Big Ten Game of the Year.

Now we will find out who is for real and who is just an imposter. The Gophers enter this game at 3-1, with their only loss coming against California. This team has two road victories on the season, at Syracuse and at Northwestern. As for the Badgers, they are untested, supporting a 4-0 record; however, this team has yet to be challenged on the road. You did read that right, it is October and Wisconsin has yet to play a road game this season.

The Badgers have won five straight games in this series. In 2008 the Gophers led the 21-7 at halftime, before falling, 35-32. In that game, All-Conference WR Eric Decker was injured and did not play. The 2009 squad is the best group Coach Tim Brewster has had since he took over and the offense is loaded with QB Adam Weber and a great receiving core. The offensive line is much better then the 2008 edition and they now have the ability to beat you via the ground as well as though the air.

As for the Badgers, the home cooking will not be found here. The quarterback position is in good hands with Scott Tolzien; however, the running game is not up to Wisconsin’s usually standard. The defense has had problems against Fresno State and Michigan State, as both clubs had over 400 yards of total offense. I expect this team to struggle against a strong offense, especially one like Minnesota that can beat you two ways.

Minnesota had a big win last week on the road against Northwestern and I look for a carryover here, since this team is loaded with upperclassman. Coach Brewster will remind his players that none of them have ever beaten Wisconsin. This is the first Big Ten game at TCF Bank Stadium and expect this team to be sky high. They have the edge in talent, home field, and coaching and this small line is just too good to pass up. The Ax heads North, as the Badgers streak finally come to an end! Minnesota 31, Wisconsin 20.

5 Unit Play. Take Georgia -3 over LSU Top College Selection.

As one looks at this game, it is hard to figure why Georgia is favored since they are ranked #18 and LSU is ranked #4. Throw in the fact that the Tigers are undefeated and it makes this even more questionable. The fact is that Georgia has played a much tougher schedule and not question that they are the better club. The Dawg’s rush defense has been outstanding and that does not bode well for LSU, since they rushed for just 30 yards against Mississippi State. They had only 164 yards the previous week against UL-Lafayette.

Granted LSU will be looking for revenge, but that does not mean much if you do not have the horses to execute the mission. Bulldogs will score points and I just do not see LSU keeping pace. Playing inside the hedges gives Georgia the call and this one will not be as close as you might think. Georgia 38, LSU 14.

5 Unit Play. Take Illinois +7 over Penn State Top Underdog Play.

I took the Illini last week only to get burned 30-0 as a 14 point underdog against Ohio State. This Illinois team was expected to be good with several skill players returning. With losses to Missouri and Ohio State certainly bring doubt for Coach Turner and company. Now this team finds their backs against the wall! A bad outing on Saturday may see them throw in the towel for the 2009 season. The talent is still there, now it is time for Coach Zook to prove he can be a good coach and justify his hiring after little success at Florida.

QB Williams has yet to have a good game in 2009 and the defense has struggled defending the pass. Penn State lost to Iowa last week and that was no shock to this writer. The Lions offense is just not putting up points and the defense is having problems, especially at the linebacker position hampered by injuries. This team is just not as strong as past Paterno teams and can only score in the forties against weak opponents such as Akron or Temple. My gut feeling is that the Illini will finally come to play and Juice Williams will have a breakout game. Receiving around a touchdown is a bonus as the Lions will fall to 0-2 in the Big Ten. The homer gets the call in upset fashion! Illinois 27, Penn State 20.

4 Unit Play. Take Arkansas State +22 over Iowa

I really liked the Hawks last week against Penn State and feel they have the best team in the Big Ten; however, their road schedule is brutal. As good as Iowa is, if you ever see a flat spot, it will be here coming off a big win in Happy Valley and having Michigan on deck.

As for Arkansas State, they are certainly not in the same class as Iowa, but do not underestimate this club. They return 15 starters from 2008 and are loaded with seniors. The Red Wolves are used to playing powers on the road, playing Nebraska this year, Texas A & M & Alabama in 2008, and Texas & Tennessee in 2007. Look for the Hawkeyes to go through the motions and the points look very attractive. Iowa 27, Arkansas State 14.

4 Unit Play. Take Clemson -12½ over Maryland

I am never wild about laying points on the road; however, this is a case of two clubs moving in different directions. The Tigers have lost two games thus far; however; both losses came against good teams, TCU and Georgia Tech. The Tigers were expecting a good season and cannot afford another early season loss, especially against a very untalented Maryland club. The Terrapins have only beaten James Madison, 38-35, and I question if they will win another game this season.

Both clubs have played Middle Tennessee State this season. Maryland lost to them, 32-31 and Clemson beat them, 37-14. The Tigers come in with a balanced attack and a solid defense. They lost to Maryland in 2008, 20-17, revenge will be sweet. The talent gap between the two clubs in deep and this one will be all Tigers. Clemson 34, Maryland 10.

4 Unit Play. Take Michigan State -3 over Michigan

Talk about having one’s back against one’s wall! Michigan State enters this annual battle on a three game losing streak and this is their season here. Field position really killed MSU in last week’s battle with Wisconsin. No question that this team has the talent, but I have been waiting for them to play to their ability.

This will be the Wolverines first road game of the season. I respect how Coach Rodriguez has turned around this club, but I still feel he is a couple years away from becoming a conference power. A loss by Michigan State here will probably mean I will avoid using them as a selection for the rest of the season. But this line is low and it is just too good to pass up, as the Spartans finally play to their potential. Michigan State 28, Michigan 20.

4 Unit Play. Take California +4½ over USC

Always hard to come back with a team after using them the previous week when they got their butts kicked. The Bears played well in the first quarter but then hibernated and simply gave up after that. This team might have been looking ahead and simply has too much talent not to come back strong here, especially playing in Berkley. The Trojans have won five straight in this series, but have had a major edge in talent in those games. That is not the case in 2009, as Cal returned 15 starters from 2008 and none of these players have experienced the feeling of beating USC.

Although the Trojans have the best defense of the two teams, I am not convinced QB Matt Barkley and company will be able to score points at will. The loser of this game will see there hopes for a big bowl game fade and thus I expect it to be played close to the best, in a low scoring battle. The homer pulls out all the stops here and it is just too many points for the visitor to be laying in what will be a tight match. California 24, USC 21.

Strong Opinion Plays:

Florida State by 14 over Boston College (line is 4)
Texas Tech by 42 over New Mexico (line is 35.5)

Ron Raymond
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Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
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The Huskies head coach won’t admit it, but they had their let down game last week vs. Idaho, after winning the week before against Purdue. In fact, it was the first win over a Big 10 team in over 21 years, so this my friends is your classic letdown situation. However, Northern Illinois have a nice offense and QB Chandler Harnish has a QB rating of 147.4 and he has a stud receiver in Landon Cox.
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When any NCAAF team played as Home team as a Favorite - Playing on Saturday - During the month of October - Coming off a Loss over Western Athletic opponent - Coming off a 1 ATS lost; the Home Fave (Northern Illinois) is 13-4 SU and 11-6-0 ATS.
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When any NCAAF team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Underdog - During the month of October - Last 4 years - Coming off 1 over - Allowed more than 20 points against in back to back games; The Underdog (Western Michigan) is 3-11 SU and 4-10-0 ATS in this spot the last 4 years.
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Take Northern Illinois.

Right Angle Sports

All 1 Unit

Fla Atlantic

Cincinnati

La. Monroe

BYU Under 65

Fla Int Under 55

Temple Under 47

SMU Over 49.5

Teddy Covers

20* Big Ticket: Arkansas -1

Northwestern +8
Virginia +13
Miami (FL) +7.5
Western Michigan +6.5
Iowa State -2.5

Apache

Flaming Arrow: Florida St

ASA

4* Minnesota
4* Ohio St
4* Mich St
3* Miami Fl
3* Washington

igz1 sports

3* Central Michigan -8

Pointwise Late Phones

4* OHIO ST, NEVADA

3* TULSA, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, NC ST, FLORIDA ST, SOUTH FLORIDA

2* STANFORD, WASHINGTON, LSU, VANDY, TEXAS A&M