Black Widow
6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR Minnesota -2.5
Wisconsin may be 4-0, but they've played all four games at home and they have yet to record an impressive win. They own 8-point wins over Northern Illinois and Michigan State, and also a 3-point overtime win over Fresno State. In their first road game of the season, the Badgers' true colors will show Saturday. Minnesota is now 3-1 with their only loss to Cal, a team they had on the ropes the entire game. The Golden Gophers will be prepared to stop Wisconsin's running game, having faced two of the best rushing teams in the country in Cal and Air Force already. Their defense is giving up 144 rushing yards per game, but only 3.3 yards per carry which is very impressive considering the teams they have faced. The Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog, losing 86% of the time. Wisconsin is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games overall. The Gophers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Minnesota's ability to stop the run will be the key to their victory Saturday. Take Minnesota and lay the points.
5* "Early" Non-Conference Surefire Arkansas State +21.5
HUGE LETDOWN SPOT FOR IOWA. After their 21-10 road win at Penn State, the Hawkeyes now find themselves as the No. 13 ranked team in the country with an undefeated record. But with that record comes expectations, the kind that Iowa cannot live up to. The Hawkeyes have been winning games with their defense, in spite of their lackluster offense. Iowa is putting up just 25.0 points per game and 348 yards per contest. Those aren't numbers that indicate they would have any chance to cover this huge three-touchdown spread against a good Arkansas State team. The Red Wolves are averaging 190 rushing yards/game and they return 15 total starters from a team that won six games a year ago. They led Troy 23-10 last week, and faltered down the stretch to lose 27-30. You can bet this team will be very hungry after that crushing loss, especially when facing a Top-25 team which is a chance to put their names on the map. There's no question Iowa will come out flat in this one. The Hawkeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Take Arkansas State and the points.
4* SMU/TCU Over 48.5
This is another game where we could see TCU scoring 50 points on their own against this soft SMU defense. But the Mustangs have a great offense of their own, and SMU will put up enough points to get the OVER if TCU cannot get it themselves. The Horned Frogs put up 48 points on SMU last year, so as you can see it's not a problem. SMU is scoring 31.0 points per game and giving up 28.7 points per contest this year. The Mustangs are averaging 326 passing yards and 432 totals yards per game. TCU is scoring 33.3 points per game with 425 totals yards per contest in 2009. They are rushing and throwing for more than 200 yards each for a very balanced attack which is tough to stop. TCU is 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) in home games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. The OVER is 5-0 in Horned Frogs last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Take the OVER 48.5 points here.
4* on Kent State/Baylor Over 50
Baylor might just score 50 points on their own this week, but if they don't then Kent State will put up enough points to get the OVER. The Bears scored 68 points last week in a 68-13 home win over Northwestern State. Kent State has given up 34 points each to Boston College and Iowa State in their two losses, two teams not known for having explosive offenses. Baylor is a team known for their deadly offense, as they've put up 38.0 points per game this year. They've also faced two tough defenses in Wake Forest and Connecticut, so that's a pretty impressive average when you factor that in. Kent State is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 9-3 in Golden Flashes last 12 games overall. The OVER is 9-1 in Bears last 10 games as a home favorite. Take the OVER 50 points.
4* on Eastern Michigan +6.5
Eastern Michigan should not be catching points at home against Temple. Yes, EMU is 0-3, but they've faced a very tough schedule with road losses to Northwestern and Michigan and a home loss to Army. EMU lost at Temple 52-55 last season, so you can bet they have revenge in mind. They have 17 starters back from that team, and these players have not forgotten that crushing defeat. This team is very hungry for their first win of the season, and this is easily the softest opponent they have faced thus far so they have a great chance to getting it. Temple is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after a win by 17 or more points since 1992. The Owls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. The Eagles are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games in October. Take Eastern Michigan and the points.
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
CONSENSUS BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR WINNER
Ohio St -17
College Computer Crusher
College game of the year
USC -5.5
Lenny Del Genio
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Purdue -7 vs Northwestern
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The Boilermakers covered for us and 1st year HC Danny Hope last week at home vs. Notre Dame. The Notre Dame game is obviously a big deal for a 1st year HC in West Lafayette, but so too is the homecoming game which comes this week vs. Northwestern and ensures no letdown. Purdue has won 9 of 12 in this Big 10 rivalry, but has actually dropped three of the last five. Last year was the worst of those losses with the Boilers trailing by as much as 30 at one point, but let's take a closer examination of those box scores. QB Painter was yanked following a dreadful effort, but then backup Elliot came in and seperated his shoulder, leaving Painter to come back into an awkward situation. It is Elliot's team this year. Purdue turned it over five times in the 48-26 defeat and it was an interesting game overall with seven of the 13 scoring drives were of 13 yards or less. The 48 points scored by Northwestern was a series record (76 games). A poor weather forecast works to the advantage of the home team, who has rediscovered its running game while Northwestern's pass first offense will be limited. Last time here in West Lafayette, the Wildcats lost 35-17 as 13-point underdogs. They don't even have QB Bacher anymore, who threw four TD passes last year. N'western has new faces and injuries in the front seven. Boilermakers will not lose a 3rd straight home game and get the cash here. Take Purdue.
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Minnesota -3 vs Wisconsin
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This is the longest active rivarly in FBS with this being the 119th all-time meeting. The Gophers have lost five straight (and 12 of 14) in this series and seven straight in Madison. Fortunately for them, this game will be played at the new TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, possibly the first time they can take advantage of playing outdoors in the bad weather. Meanwhile, this will be the first time Wisconsin has left Madison, meaning their 4-0 start is a bit phony. Further illustrating that point is the fact the Badgers defense has allowed 400+ yards total offense to both Fresno State and Michigan State (had a +6 TO margin in those two games). Last year, Minnesota led 21-7 at the half, despite playing without WR Decker, but wound up having to settle only for the cover in a 35-32 loss as 13-point underdogs. This year, they'll have Decker, who along with QB Adam Weber, form the best QB/WR combo in the Big 10. The Gophers impressed us in staying with Cal for three quarters in the home opener (lost 35-21 thanks to four turnovers) and then last week the running game was rejuvenated (166 yards) in a 35-24 win and cover on the road vs. Northwestern. Tim Brewster's team will certainly want to win its first game in its new digs. Wisconsin is just 1-4 ATS its last five as a road underdog and 1-6 ATS when coming off a conference win. Minnesota is our Conference Game of the Week.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas St. +21.5 vs Iowa
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Obvious letdown spot for Iowa, who comes off a physical 21-10 upset of Penn State in Happy Valley and now is being asked to lay three touchdowns to an unfamiliar opponent the week before they host (possibly) unbeaten Michigan. The other key factor here is that the Hawkeyes do not have the explosiveness on offense to cover this kind of number. Through 274 snaps this year, Iowa's biggest offensive play has been 43 yards. HC Ferentz certainly won't be looking for many 50+ yard plays in this game, more likely being content to run the ball and grind out the clock, keeping his starters fresh for bigger games on the Big 10 slate. Arkansas State has several playmakers on offense, including QB Leonard and RB Arnold, both of whom are seniors, as well as a veteran WR corps. Having played at Nebraska, Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama and Texas over the course of the last three seasons means the Red Wolves are one underdog that won't be intimidated. Remember that they won outright at Texas A&M last year. With a 17-2 SU home mark vs. non-BCS schools (including 42-0 win over only other SBC opponent Florida Int'l), Iowa simply is not going to take this game seriously. Look no further than a 17-16 win over FCS Northern Iowa in Week One (needed TWO blocked FG's to preserve the win) for further proof of that. Take Arkansas State.
The King Maker
10* Toledo Rockets -5
10* South Florida Bulls -6.5
Kelso
200 unit Texas Tech -34.5
15 unit Clemson -12.5
5 unit Georgia -3.5
4 unit Kansas State +2
3 unit UCLA +5
3 unit Auburn +2
Eddie Roman
20,000 Dime Personal System Lock
GEORGIA BULLDOGS -3
7500 Dime PAC-10 Two Pack
STANFORD CARDINAL -5
CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS +5
Bob Valentino
50 DIME: CLEMSON
Larry Ness
25*GOY - Navy
20* Club 80 - Nevada
20* Perfect Storm - UTEP
Insider - Florida State
Jim Feist
20-Star College Football High Roller Mismatch
WISCONSIN VS MINNESOTA
Take: MINNESOTA
After playing 4 in a row at home, Wisconsin (4-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) heads out on the road. And this defense is suspect. They had a 34-31 victory over Fresno State with 413 total yards, but the defense gave up 468 yards (179 rushing). The Badgers also have up 30 pionts and 420 yards to Michigan State. Wisconsin has been great at home, but 3-9 ATS its last 12 away. Tim Brewster brought the spread offense to Minnesota (3-1 SU/ATS) and has junior QB Adam Weber (5 TD, 5 picks) and senior WR Eric Decker, a top talent. Wisconsin has won the last two years in shootouts, 41-34 and 35-32, but Minnesota is improved and the Badgers' weak defense will be explosed in its first road contest. Play Minnesota.
BRYAN LEONARD
SATURDAY NCAA SHOCKER
Washington at Notre Dame
We played against both these teams last week and swept the board with easy covers. Washington was off their huge upset of USC and Notre Dame as always was overvalued. Well this week we will back the Huskies as the Irish continue to remain overrated.
Washington has faced much tougher defenses than this Notre Dame stop unit and had solid success. They produced 23 points and 5.8 yards per play against LSU. They then pulled off the shocker against USC who owns one of the top stop units in the nation. QB Jake Locker should have a field day moving the chains, and the Huskies look to have a key contributor WR Devin Aguilar back on the field this week. Defensively Washington will give up some points and yardage but they will be facing a depleted Irish scoring unit.
Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen and RB Armondo Allen will both play but they won't be 100%. Last week the offense struggled without the injured Michael Floyd and the team averaged just 4.8 yards per play against a questionable Purdue defense. Washington's stop unit compares with that of the Boilermakers so we can't see Claussen and company putting up much more than the 24 points they scored last week. Defensively the Irish have stopped nobody with the possible exception of Nevada who has looked terrible thus far. They allowed 5.7 yards per play to Purdue, 7.1 ypp to Michigan State and 6.1 ypp to Michigan. Even in shutting out the Wolf Pack they permitted 5.5 yards per play.
Simply put the Irish are not nearly as good as the media would have you believe. They are off three straight last second outcomes with two of those games falling in their favor. In the Charlie Weis regime Notre Dame is 8-14 ATS as a home favorite with six outright losses. Look for a high scoring affair as Washington matches the Irish all day long in another late game finish.
PLAY WASHINGTON
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
COLLEGE FOOTBALL MAGIC WAND WINNER
MINNESOTA -2.5
BIG AL
At 12:20 pm, our SEC Shocker of the Year is on the Kentucky Wildcats plus the points over Alabama. Last week, Kentucky was gashed 41-7 by the top-ranked Florida Gators, but off that loss the Wildcats fall into one of my best College Football conference systems. It's 121-68 ATS since 1980 and it plays on certain teams off a blowout loss who are matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS Win (Alabama checks into Saturday's game off a win + cover over Arkansas). Nick Saban's men are 4-0 overall, and ranked #3 in the country. But this will be a tough ballgame. In its last two wins, the Crimson Tide held each of Arkansas and North Texas to seven points. However, college favorites of -7 or more points are a dismal 10-26 ATS since 1995 on the conference road off back to back SU/ATS wins in which they didn't give up more than seven points. And if their foe has a win percentage of .600 or better, then our 26-10 stat zooms to 11-0 ATS. This will be Alabama's first true road game (after one neutral-sited, and three home games), and favorites playing their first road game at Game 5 of the season (or later) are big-time money burners vs. conference foes, including a poor 31% ATS since 1980 off a conference win. Finally, Alabama suffered a big loss in its win last week vs. Arkansas. Linebacker Dont'a Hightower suffered a knee injury and was lost for the season. Hightower's versatility (he could play both Linebacker and Defensive End) enabled Alabama's coaching staff to easily modify defensive formations without shuttling in new personnel, and the Crimson Tide will have a more difficult time, going forward, disguising its defensive schemes. This year has seen an inordinate amount of upset wins by double-digit underdogs, and an outright victory by Rich Brooks' Wildcats wouldn't be a complete surprise. Take the points.
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Air Force plus the points against Navy. The Midshipmen are easily the best road team in college football (86-39 ATS away from home since 1988). But at home, it's a completely opposite story, as Navy is 29-49 ATS over the last 21 seasons, including 4-28 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up win (the Falcons won 26-14 last week)! That's one reason why I like the Air Force. Another is that Air Force falls into a statistical system of mine that plays on certain strong rushing teams, as underdogs, that average 4.2 yards per rush (or better). Air Force currently averages 4.8 yards per rush, and piles up a staggering 319 rushing yards per game. This system is 139-72 ATS since 1980. Air Force will also get QB Tim Jefferson back for this game. Jefferson suffered a sprained ankle two weeks ago vs. New Mexico and missed last week's action against San Diego St. Jefferson is a big part of the Falcon offense, and was named Mountain West Freshman of the Year last season after recording a 5-3 record as Air Force's starting QB. He can both run and pass, and has accounted for 317 yards this season, without turning it over. Last year, Air Force dominated Navy in the stats (outgaining the Midshipmen 411-244), but lost 33-27 due to having two punts blocked for TDs. Similarly, in 2007, Air Force also outgained Navy 474-381, but penalties and turnovers did them in. But this year, Air Force is protecting the ball well, and forcing a lot of turnovers, and ranks second in the country in turnover differential at plus 3.3 turnovers per game! The Falcons also rank 9th in the country in scoring defense (11.8 ppg). Rivalry Game of the Month on Air Force.
Opinion picks
At 8 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears plus the points over USC. To say that the Bears might have been looking ahead to this home date with their rival, the USC Trojans, might be a bit of an understatement. After all, what else could explain the thumping Jeff Tedford's men took at the hands of the Oregon Ducks up in Eugene. Cal was favored by 5 points in that game, yet inexplicably lost 42-3. However, college football home dogs of less than 20 points react EXTREMELY WELL off bad road losses in which they were favored (or an underdog of less than 3 points) when they are next matched up against teams off a win. Provided our "play-on" team (here, California) failed to cover by more than 8 points in that previous game, they are a solid 95-52 ATS off those embarassing losses. And we can tighten up our 95-52 ATS system further by requiring that our home dog lost by more than 20 points in its previous game. Then, our 95-52 stat races to 28-10 ATS. The Bears have a 9-game home win streak currently, and are 8-0 ATS in those nine games (with one off the board). NCAA Roadkill play on California.
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Syracuse plus the points over South Florida. This is a perfect situational spot for the Orange. Last week, South Florida won a huge game when it upset Florida St 17-7 as a 14-point underdog. But off that win, let's step in and fade the Bulls on the road, as .570 (or better) road favorites are a terrible 31-54 ATS off an upset win as a 7-point (or greater) underdog. Syracuse is playing better football under first-year coach Doug Marrone (a former NFL assistant and Syracuse alumnus), and is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. The Orange have won their last two games to even their record at 2-2, and are a far cry from the club that went 10-37 over the previous four seasons. Indeed, one of Syracuse's two losses (vs. Minnesota) was in overtime, so the Orange could easily be 3-1. Also, Syracuse has scored 37 and 41 points in their last two games, and that's the first time since 2004 that the Orange have surpassed the 35-point mark in back-to-back games. (Points scored is a very strong predictor of future success in College Football, so that's a good sign for this game here.) Leading the Orange attack is QB Greg Paulus, who is completing 68 percent of his passes, and the air game is accounting for almost 70% of Syracuse's offensive yards. Although South Florida pulled last week's upset behind redshirt freshman QB B.J. Daniels, the Bulls would no doubt prefer to have QB Matt Grothe behind center, but Grothe is out for the year. That is a big loss for the Bulls, and Daniels certainly wasn't perfect last week as a passer (notwithstanding the win). He completed just 8 of 21 passes and had 2 TDs, but also threw 2 interceptions. That kind of performance (a low completion percentage, with high turnovers) won't normally get the job done on the road. Look for Syracuse to extend its ATS winning streak to 4-0 this season. Take the points.
3* Kentucky (SEC Shocker of Year 100% 11-0 ATS system)
3* Air Force (Rivalry GOM.....28-4 ATS Angle!)
OP* California (NCAA RoadKill...100%ATS)
OP* Syracuse (High Noon Hanging)
OP* Texas El Paso
Ethan Law
Tennessee
The Boss
500% "Untouchable Play" Central Michigan
300% "BOOKIE BUSTER BLOWOUT PARLAY" Central Michigan, Cincy, South Florida
200% "Dog Pound" Michigan
100% Silent Assasins 100 Iowa, Oregon, TCU