Rainman
10* W Michigan
5* Oklahoma, N Carolina, Nevada
3* Stanford, Oklahoma St
1* Temple, Pitt
Joseph D'Amico
Connecticut vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -19
Woweee! This game is going to get ugly. West Virginia can't wait to avenge LYs 16-13 OT loss in which kept the Mountaineers from a BCS Bowl. UWV head coach, Dana Holgorsen stated "Our guys are going to be motivated due to the fact that they lost to UConn last year and didn't go to a BCS Bowl because of it." Talk is that West Virginia began preparing for this game Sunday night by rewatching last seasons game film. Savvy QB, Geno Smith has 1709 YP, a 65% completion rate, and a 121/3 TD/INT ratio. Now with a true ground game behind RB Dustin Harrison (365 YR and 4 TDs) the West Virginia offense is a true dual-threat. Harrison will run amok, allowing Smith to open up the passing attack against the depleted UConn secondary that got lit up 2 weeks ago by WMU QB, Alex Carder for 479 YP. The problem for the Huskies is that they have no talent at the QB position and there is no way the 90th ranked offense can compete with the #14 offense that passed all over a great LSU defense. On "D", Connecticut ranks 83rd vs. the pass. UWV has 3 receivers in Austin, Bailey, and McCartney have combined for 1240 YR and 7 TDs. On their "D", West Virginia's speed will bewilder QB McEntree, who threw 3 INTs in his only other road game vs. Vanderbilt. The Mountaineers heavy-blitzing 3-3-5 attack will completely shut down the untalented "O" of the Huskies. Their defense is way ahead of teams like Buffalo and WMU. The Huskies are 2-5 ATS their L7 vs. the Mountaineers and 1-5 ATS their L6 overall. The Mountaineers are 3-0-1 ATS their L4 Conference games and 3-0-1 ATS their L4 home games vs. teams with a losing road record. Take West Virginia.
Carolina Sports
5* Arkansas
4* S Mississippi
4* Missouri
Gameday
5* Georgia Tech
3* baylor
3* Oklahoma
3* Rutgers
3* Tennessee
Scott Spreitzer
GOY Penn St
GOM Neb
Joe Gavazzi
West Virginia -19.5
It is a pair of new coaches with Pasqualoni and Holgorsen. But all the players well remember. It was a 16-13 U. Conn victory last season that knocked West Virginia from the opportunity to play in a BCS Bowl. That came courtesy of a -4 in the TO column for the Mounties, and inspite of the fact they outgained U.Conn 414-278. They will take no prisoners this afternoon in Morgantown. While U. Conn is plodding its way from first to worst under Pasqualoni, the exciting spread offense of Holgorsen is reaching new peaks each week. Behind evolving QB Smith and a plethora of skill position players, the Mounties lit up the scoreboard again last week in a 55-10 trashing of Bowling Green. In that victory, they put up a balanced 643 yards. Combined with passing performances of 463 vs. LSU and 388 vs. Maryland in the 2 previous weeks, the Mounties enter with great momentum. That is bad news for a U. Conn pass defense that allowed 479 yards through the air to Western Michigan QB Carder LW. The plodding Huskie offense is easily contained by the unique 3-3-5 defensive looks of a blitzing stop unit. After only 40,000 fans showed up for the Bowling Green game last week, HC Holgorsen expressed his unhappiness with the turnout and challenged fans to make West Virginia a big time program by not making excuses for not showing up. With the fans in full throat, don’t expect the home team to stop scoring with the thoughts of revenge motivating them for the full 60 minutes.
Sean Higgs
10* Big East GOY - West Virginia -19
Will be taking WEST VIRGINIA here. Mountaineers look for some payback off of last years tough 16-13 loss at UCONN. You out yardage a team on the road 414 to 278 you should be in the win column. Couple in 7 total fumbles, and 4 lost and you end up with a big conference 'L' . Time for some payback though here at home. New HC Dana Holgersen has the offense clicking. QB Geno Smith is spreading the ball around and has 12 TD to just 3 INTs. RB Dustin Garrison went 32 carries for 291 last week. Randy Edsall knew exactly what he was doing leaving this program. We had Western Michigan last week as a dog-outright winner over Uconn. Huskies allowed 3 of those WRs to go over 100 yards. New Uconn HC Paul Pasqualoni has a junior making his first Big East road start in a real tough spot. Mountaineers will get after him from the jump. West Va is salavating waiting to get at this secondary, or lack of it. West Va got to 27-21 vs LSU before a 99 KO return that basically sucked the life out of the 'Neers. If Geno Smith is putting up 460 yards vs LSU's defense, man, Uconn is in for a long afternoon. West Va will score 40. I can't see the Huskies getting near 20 with this QB or their retread head coach.
5* Oklahoma Sooners -10.5
Taking the SOONERS here. So this game is in Dallas. Still Texas. We have the #1 (USAToday)or #3(AP) team vs the #10 or #11 team. Laying 10+ on the road? Wow. We saw the Sooners bring some serious defense to their game vs Florida State. I expect the same kind of attacking defense here vs a very young Texas team. I know the 'Horns were a lowly 5-7 last year. They have exacted revenge for those losses vs Iowa State and UCLA. But really. Do either of those teams have the caliber of players like the Sooners? I am pretty sure we can combine those teams and Texas would still roll them. Sooners, led by Landry Jones should really take advantage of this young squad. Case McCoy is a sophmore making his 3rd start. Will be interesting to see how he responds here. Sooners knocked EJ Manual out a few times in his own house. I can see the same happening here. Oklahoma has Kansas up next, so they aren't looking ahead. Red Rivalry is the Sooners for the taking here!
Frank Patron
Kansas State
Sean Murphy
10* Memphis +21
10* Tampa Bay Lightning +149
BIG AL
4* Bowling Green
4* Ball State
4* Penn State
4* Arkansas
3* Wake Forest
3* Rutgers
3* Iowa State
3* San Diego State
3* Maple Leafs
3* Tigers
Ben Burns
10* UCLA
10* TCU / San Diego St Under
10* North Texas
9* Penn St
9* Missouri
9* Arkansas
Chicago Blackhawks
Texas Rangers +1½
WUNDERDOG
Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Minnesota Wild
Play: Columbus Blue Jackets
The Wild has had a three-year playoffs drought, and have not won a playoffs series since 2003. The Wild has made improvements to an offense that has ranked No. 20 or worse the last three seasons, hitting bottom a year ago where they slipped to No. 26 at just 2.48 goals per game. Nicklas Backstrom really struggled in the net last year, closing the season with just one win in his last 14 behind the net. Columbus fared well vs. the Wild a year ago as they took three of the four meetings between these clubs. The Wild closed a year ago by dropping six straight as a favorite of -110 to -150, and that positions the Blue Jackets as a live dog in this one. Columbus is the pick.
Joe Gavazzi
Boston College +21
No one but you and I will be soaring with the BC Eagle this Saturday. Even with the return of all-time leading rusher RB Harris who piled up 108 RY, the Eagles failed at home vs. a mediocre Wake team 27-19. It dropped the Eagles record for the season to 1-4 SU, ATS, with a -29 AFP. Everyone is far more in love with the Clemson Tigers’ story. They have climbed their way up the polls by going 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS +38 AFP. They have just completed 3 intense weeks of play resulting in 3 revenge victories against last year’s National Champ, Auburn, the anointed best team in the ACC, Florida State, and a perennial Top 10 team in Virginia Tech. That win proved their prowess on the defensive side of the ball as they allowed the Hokies just 3 points in 258 yards. Their backers are now expecting a 4th consecutive revenge romp after they dropped a 16-10 decision to BC in 2010. This bureau, however, says that will be unlikely for 2 reasons. First, because it is nearly impossible to play at an emotional peak 4 consecutive weeks in football. And secondly, because, although they do have a revenge motive, they will not have nearly as much respect as they have for the previous 3 foes. An inflated line that is 2 TDs higher than Week #1, the inevitable Clemson letdown, and a still decent Eagle defense allowing just 24 PPG will allow BC, behind RB Harris, to control the game overland just enough to come inside this large impost.
Virginia Tech -7
Few will argue that the Va Tech coaching staff, led by 25th year HC Beamer, is one of the best in the land. Each of his coordinators has been here at least 18 years with him. The program continues to ascend since 2004. In the last 7 plus years, they have just 22 losses. In that time frame, they stand 58-35 ATS, one of the biggest money makers in the country. With that as background, you can imagine their frustration following the 23-3 home loss on this field to Clemson last week when they were outgained 323-258. Enter Miami who will pay the price. Know that the Hokies are 6-0 ATS at home following a home loss. Know also that their defense is still one of the best in the land allowing just 13 points, 250 yards, and 4.1 YPPL. New Miami HC Golden has stuck true to his word that he is looking to establish the run. Wrong place at the wrong time to work on that, Al! His own defensive front has been something of a sieve. Without facing a truly dominant rushing team, his Hurricanes have allowed 202 RYPG on 5.0 YPR. With Tech QB Thomas still a bit behind on his maturation schedule, look for the Hokies to pound the ground with RB Wilson and “Steamrolling” the ‘Canes into submission. Beamer bounces back with a fully focused effort at a value price with a team that is 42-19 ATS in league games.
Air Force +14.5
What a comeback by the Flyboys! Despite running just 51 plays to 105 for Navy, losing the chains 31-19 and the clock 41-19, they rallied from double digits down to force overtime and emerge with a 35-34 victory at Annapolis. It all but sealed consecutive CIC trophies. Now, they must travel east in consecutive weeks. Were this any other team in any other situation, it would have letdown written all over it. But the fact they are playing Notre Dame and the fact that the Flyboys remain on an even emotional keel will do them well in this matchup. As always, Notre Dame figures to have problems with the option attack. It will be their first look at it this season. It comes on the heels of destroying their biggest in-state rival, Purdue, on National TV last week. The fact that Air Force is 1-3 ATS with a -29 AFP has bloated this line to more than a touchdown from where it would have been opening week. That is not unusual for a high-profile Irish team who now stand 7-19-2 ATS on this field of late including 2-5-2 ATS under current HC Kelly. The poor history of Dame against service Academies has been long documented. With QB Jefferson providing an increasing aerial complement to the Flyboy “Flexbone”, again running for 365/6.9, expect this 39 PPG offense to make this game competitive the entire way. Though some may show concern for the loss of starting (C) Hester, he will be replaced by senior Benson who has nearly as much experience.
Southern Miss. +2.5
Long time readers know that rarely do we go against Navy, and rarely does Navy have a letdown. But since this is quite possibly the week for the latter, we will step in with the former. Navy outplayed Air Force the entire game last week. They won the chains 31-19, the clock 41-19, and the plays 105-51. But a critical penalty against QB Proctor following the go ahead score in OT led to a blocked extra point which was the difference in the 35-34 Navy loss. Now, word comes down that key RB Teich is doubtful for this game because of disciplinary action. The mental could well be as bad for Navy as it has been before any game in recent memory. Though S. Miss has seen their usual diet of spread offenses in CUSA, they have an outstanding defensive front that allows just 82/2.4 overland. With only 1 week to prepare, it may be problematic. But the biggest mismatch on the field is the balanced, explosive offense of the Golden Eagles against the Navy secondary that is sure to be exposed in much the same way Air Force QB Jefferson went 9/10 for 136 yards last week. The Middies have yet to face an offense anywhere near this explosive. In what figures to be a high scoring game, the situation and the matchups clearly point to the underdog as the value side in this.
Kansas St. +3.5
What was slated to be the continuation of a Mid-western road trip from Chicago to the Little Apple was abruptly cut short following more outrageous antics by our dynamic duo of Cheetah Leggings and Heidilicious Rock Rock. In last week’s edition, I pointed out that Heidilicious would be returning to the site of her 21st birthday celebration. One could excuse her if things got out of control as she had flashbacks of her former life. My error in judgment was clearly relying on Cheetah to be her moral compass. That will never happen! The good news is that some far reaching connections to the Chicago DA’s office has resulted in all charges being dropped with the stipulation that the girls return immediately to the Pittsburgh area. That’s the bad news. The better news is that our Feline Feature of the Week is now on a 3-0 ATS run after Northwestern easily covered vs. Illinois, last week. The great news is that this bureau has had this very game circled as the Feline Feature of the Week since early in the season. QB Franklin is stepping in admirably for graduated QB Gabbert operating a Missouri offense averaging 36 points and 517 yards. Nonetheless at 2.2 SU, they have failed in their only road tests at Arizona State and Oklahoma. Never a good omen when you are going out as road chalk for the first time this season. Kansas State played true to form last week when they dominated overland vs. Baylor 210-83 and played just enough defense (holding Baylor 120 yards below their average) to get an exciting 36-35 home win. Yet, we still get value with them at the same price point as last week because they show no flash in their offensive attack. Exactly the type of underdog we want featuring a strong, reliable running game and by far the better defense on a home field that provides the final edge. In this battle of felines, play the Wild Cats as home dog. HC Snyder now 10-5 ATS as dog in his 2nd tenure in the Little Apple!
Wayne Root
Pinnacle - Oregon State
Perfect Play - Penn State
Fortune 500 - Northwestern
No Limit - Missouri
Billionaire - Rutgers
Millionaire Upset GOY- Utah
ASA
5* Missouri
4* Northwestern
BIG AL
3-GAME FOOTBALL PACKAGE (5-1 LAST WEEK)!
Our 3 selections include Iowa St., Ball St., and Rutgers.At 2 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Temple. The Cardinals have played five games this season. They've won all 3 "competitively priced games" -- games with pointspreads below a touchdown -- vs. Indiana, Buffalo and Army, but have dropped their two games in which they were installed as underdogs of +20 and +40 points. Last week, they were drilled 62-6 at the best team in the country (Oklahoma) to fall to 3-2 on the season. But I love playing on winning teams in conference games off blowout losses of 21+ points, as they generally rebound. And if our team is catching 5+ points then they're 108-69 ATS. Grab the points with the home dog Cardinals.At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Pittsburgh. Rutgers has gotten off to a terrific start this season, as it's 3-1 straight-up and 3-0 ATS (with one non-lined game), and now finds itself installed as a home dog vs. Pittsburgh. But one of the things I love to do is play on .750 teams as a home dog in game 5 of the season if they're getting 6+ points. These teams cover the spread 67.3 percent of the time over the past 32 years, including 82% off back to back wins. And Rutgers does come into this game off wins over Ohio and Syracuse. Also, Pitt is an awful 11-for-38 as road favorites of -5.5 or more points over the last 30 seasons. Take Rutgers. At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iowa St. Cyclones + the points over Baylor. Last week, ISU lost its first game of the season, 37-14 to the Texas Longhorns, and the Cyclones now sit at 3-1 for the year. Baylor has had the same results as Iowa State, as the Bears won their first three games before losing last week by a point to Kansas State. But winning teams rebound much better off blowout losses than narrow losses, and Iowa State falls into our same 108-69 ATS system which has a play on Ball St. over Temple. Baylor has allowed 48, 31 and 36 points in its three lined games this season, and double-digit favorites off a loss cover just 41% of the time vs. conference foes, if our favorite gives up more than 28 ppg on defense. That doesn't bode well for Baylor here. Take the points with Iowa St. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss any of my College Football Winners on Saturday, as we look to cash for the sixth straight Saturday.
BIG AL's 89% NCAA FB ROADKILL (53-29 LAST 82)
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Auburn. The Tigers went into Columbia last week, and upset the South Carolina Gamecocks 16-13 as 10.5-point underdogs. But one of the things I love to do is fade double-digit road underdogs in conference games off upset conference road wins, if they're off back-to-back wins, as well. Over the past 32 years, these road-weary warriors stumble badly in the 2nd of back to back road games, and rarely pull a 2nd consecutive upset. Indeed, they only cover the spread 35 percent of the time. For most of the season, Auburn's defense has been a sieve, and has given up 448 yards to Utah St., 531 yards to Miss St., and 624 yards to Clemson. That doesn't bode well against an Arkansas offense that rolled up 581 yards in a 42-38 upset win vs. Texas A&M last week, and one that is averaging over 470 yards a game. The Razorbacks are a solid 8-1 ATS at home off a pointspread win, and 40-23 ATS after scoring 37+ points in their previous game. Lay the points with Bobby Petrino's troops. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss any of my other big winners on Saturday.
3-GAME COLLEGE FOOTBALL POWER PACKAGE!
Our 3 selections include Bowling Green, Houston and San Diego St. At 2 pm, our selection is on the Bowling Green Falcons + the points over Western Michigan. Last week, BGSU was blasted 55-10 at West Virginia to fall to 3-2 on the season, but I look for the Falcons to rebound in Kalamazoo vs. the Broncos, as Bowling Green falls into a super 72-24 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winning teams off blowout losses. The Broncos have a solid passer in junior QB Alex Carder, but they've struggled to run the ball this season, and average just 88 yards per game on the ground. I look for the Falcons to try to get Western Michigan to run the football, so they can exploit this weakness. The other key to Bowling Green pulling the upset here will be for the Falcons to hold onto the ball. In its two losses this season, Bowling Green turned the ball over 11 times (while forcing one turnover). But in their three wins, they forced eight turnovers, and lost the ball just five time. The good news for the Falcons is that Western Michigan has only won the turnover battle in one of its five games this season, and has turned it over 12 times (to its opponents' eight TOs). Unless the Falcons badly lose the turnover battle, they should come within this number. Take Bowling Green + the double-digits. At 7 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over East Carolina, as Houston falls into a 118-55 ATS momentum system of mine based on its offensive output this season. The Cougars have scored an average of 45.2 ppg this season, while the Pirates are averaging just 23 ppg. Not surprisingly, the Cougars are 5-0 on the year, while East Carolina has won just once this season. One of the biggest problems for East Carolina is that it is averaging a horrid 4.3 turnovers per game -- while forcing just 2.3 TOs. Unfortunately, Houston doesn't have the turnover bug-a-boo, and has not lost the turnover battle in any of its five games this season. The Cougars are a solid 8-1 ATS their last nine as home favorites, and should light up a Pirate defense which ranked last in College football in 2010. Moreover, ECU's offensive metrics don't inspire confidence. The Pirates are averaging just 6 yards per pass attempt this season (1.4 yards worse than national average) vs. teams that otherwise give up 7.1 yards per attempt. Additionally, ECU is averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per rush (1 yard worse than the national average), and 0.5 ypr less than its foes have otherwise given up. Look Case Keenum & Co. to move to 6-0 on the season, and blow out the Pirates at Robertson Stadium.
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego St Aztecs + the points over TCU, as SDSU falls into a 72-24 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winning teams off blowout losses (the same system which also has Bowling Green this afternoon). Both teams come into this game off losses. The 3-1 Aztecs fell to Michigan two weeks ago (and had last week off), while the 3-2 Horned Frogs lost at home in overtime last week to metroplex rival SMU (and gave up 461 yards in that defeat). That loss to the Mustangs dropped TCU out of the Top 25 Poll for the first time since 2008, and the fact remains that TCU is not a great team this season. Last year, a much better TCU team struggled to defeat San Diego State, and barely won 40-35 at home at Amon Carter Stadium. This game will be played on the left coast, and the Aztecs returned much of their offensive talent this season. That doesn't bode well for a TCU squad that has surrendered over 400 yards on defense in three of their five games this season. San Diego St will lean heavily on the talents of QB Ryan Lindley (3000 yds passing each of last 2 years) and soph RB Ronnie Hillman (626 yards on just 98 carries this year). But one big addition to the offense this season has been WR Colin Lockett, who played defense last year, but is averaging over 17 ypc. Look for the Aztecs to take advantage of the bye week, and be very well-rested and prepared for a TCU squad whose secondary is giving up 410 yards passing a game. Take the home dog Aztecs here. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
JOCKEY CLUB TOP HORSE PICK
The First Lady Stakes (Grade 1), Keeneland, Race #7, approximate post @ 4:37 pm ET
Our selection in the First Lady Stakes at Keeneland Race Course is #3 Daveron to win and place. Daveron is a six year old mare trained by Graham Motion and owned by the same connections that won this past Kentucky Derby with Animal Kingdom (Barry Irwin's Team Valor International). This horse just screams turf breeding, being a German Bred daughter of Black Sam Bellamy and she has done nothing wrong since coming over into Motion's barn, grabbing four firsts and two seconds in six starts, including her last start which was a victory in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa at Saratoga at the end of August. One thing to like about Daveron's chances today - other than the fact that she's won her last three starts - is the fact that there is a ton of speed in the First Lady, and that should set up nicely for an off-the-pace horse such as this one. She won't be too far back, as Daveron isn't a dead closer, so figure that she should probably be two-to-three lengths off the lead in the early going. If all goes according to plan, she will be in a position to pounce at the top of the Keeneland stretch as the leaders begin to fade. Normally, we would say that having Eddie Castro aboard for the ride in the Keeneland meet would be a knock against any horse, but the fact that Castro has been aboard Daveron for her last five starts means that it's a blessing in disguise that he was not replaced in this spot for a more seasoned Keeneland jock.
Play #3 Daveron, to win and place in the First Lady Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
BIG AL's TIGERS/RANGERS GAME 1 WINNER -- SATURDAY!
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Texas Rangers. With the Tigers upset win over the Yankees on Thursday, the Rangers now have home-field advantage in the ALCS, so game one will be played in Arlington. But the question is: is Texas playing at home in the post-season really an advantage for them? Since last year's playoffs, Texas is just 4-6 in 10 home games against the Rays, Yankees, and Giants despite the fact that during the regular season Texas is very tough at home going a combined 103-59 in Arlington over the last two years between April and September. But despite these numbers, the biggest obstacle facing them tonight is not their home ballpark, but a couple of pitchers whose names begin with the letter V. Detroit righthander Justin Verlander was unquestionably the best starter in baseball this season, winning the AL pitching Triple Crown and if he can get a lead in the game and the Tigers can keep that lead through eight innings, then the ball will be handed to a guy named Jose Valverde and all Valverde has done this season is go 51 for 51 in save chances, including closing out the pivotal game five in New York with a perfect ninth inning. The Tigers are 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Take Detroit. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
BIG AL's SLAPSHOT CLUB: 86% NHL WINNER!
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Ottawa Senators. With a 2010-2011 record of 32-40-10 and 13th place out of 15 teams in the Eastern Conference, it's hard to imagine the Senators being worse this season, but in fact they may very well be. But even if that were to happen, that's not necessarily a bad thing as Ottawa is clearly in rebuilding mode with one of the youngest teams in the league and the future - beyond this season - may indeed be very bright. The Senators have some very good prospects, like 21-year-old LW Nikita Filatov - acquired in the off-season from Columbus - and 22-year-old prospect, C Stephane Da Costa who was the top college player available this past spring. But for the current season, it could be very ugly for this team which was 29th (out of 30) in goals per game at just 2.32. Toronto on the other hand, finished 10th in the Eastern Conference last year, and could definitely improve on that this season with the acquisition of several new players, including centers Tim Connolly from Buffalo - although currently on I-R - and Matthew Lombardi from Nashville. The Leafs opened their 2011-2012 season with a big win over Montreal and they look to make it two-in-a-row against fellow Canadian teams with a victory at home tonight. The Leafs are 12-6 off a home win (including 6-1 off a win over a division foe), while the Senators are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings vs. Toronto. Take the Maple Leafs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
BIG AL's 100% (12-0 ATS) NCAA ELITE INFO WINNER!
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Iowa. The Nitts come into this game off a 16-10 win over Indiana, and we successfully played on the Hoosiers last week as an underdog of more than two touchdowns, so we were not surprised when Penn State barely won the game vs. a mediocre Indiana squad. Now, however, we will reverse course and play on the Lions. Although they have a poor offense, and can't be trusted to lay large numbers (we've gone against Joe Paterno's men twice this year as big favorites), Penn State does play exceptional defense, and must be considered as underdogs or small favorites. For the season, the Nitts are giving up just 12 ppg, and college teams who give up 13 or less points, and who are not favored by more than six points, have been exceptional bets vs. squads who give up more than 13 ppg, covering 77.3% over the years. But that's not the best part. If our 'play-on' team (here, Penn State) failed to cover the spread in its previous game by more than a touchdown, then our "defensive darlings" are a perfect 12-0 ATS since November 2006! The Hawkeyes are giving up twice as many points this year than the Lions, and I look for defense to be the separator in Happy Valley on Saturday. Take Penn State to rout Iowa. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
BIG AL's 100% PERFECT (22-0 ATS) EARLY NCAA WINNER
At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Florida State, as Wake falls into a super 22-0 ATS System of mine. What we want to do is play on any home dog of more than a TD, if its win percentage is greater than .700 and less than .833; it's off back to back wins; and it scored more than 24 points in its previous game. Last week, Wake Forest won its 3rd straight game with a 27-19 upset at Boston College, and the Demon Deacons are 3-1 on the season. Look for this momentum to carry the Deacs to a victory at home on Saturday vs. the floundering Florida State Seminoles, who check in off back to back losses vs. Oklahoma and Clemson. And it's not a good thing to lay points on the conference road with a team off back to back losses, and especially not double-digits vs. a .500 or better revenging foe, as such road teams have covered just 18% of the time over the past 32 years. With the Demon Deacons playing with revenge from a 31-0 shutout loss last season, we'll grab the points with the home underdog. Take Wake Forest + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss any of my 9 College Football Winners here on Saturday, as we look to win for the 6th straight Saturday (65% thus far this season).
Marc Lawrence
4 Units Northwestern
3 Units Texas, Florida, Washington St