Maddux Sports
20* Wisconsin -19
10* Auburn +7
10* Georgia +3
Northcoast
Early Bird - San Diego St -10
Sam Clayton
2* Indiana +7
Wow. Talk about a quick change of pace. After going into a rough neutral site game in their opener against a young, hungry, up-and-coming Ball State team, Indiana goes from a 7-point favorite to a 7-point dog. And the public is eating that shit up. Not to brag or anything, but I was pretty confident in the Cardinals’ chances to upset IU and we all capitalized. Call me crazy, but I think we’re in for some déjà vu with the Hoosiers catching a touchdown in their home opener. IU was a little shaky at Lucas Oil Stadium, but let’s give credit where credit is due. Ball State QB Keith Wenning was extremely sharp, the BST offensive line was impressive and Wenning’s top three targets downfield were seniors. What’s lost in translation though: Indiana never turned the ball over, they committed only 3 penalties and totaled up 375 yards of offense (8 less than Ball State). Aside from being completely shell shocked when the Cardinals springboarded into the lead, the Hoosiers didn’t play a bad football game. Ball State was just better. As I talk about year after year, I love when teams like Indiana, Northwestern and Purdue are underdogs, especially at home. Their mentality is completely different, they are out to impress and therefore are much more dangerous. Virginia comes into this contest after beating down a distant cousin in William & Mary 40 to 3. Yaawn. The Cavaliers are a young football team, with a young quarterback, young offensive line and maligned defense. They didn’t impress me last week and nothing has changed in the last few days. And the sharps tend to agree. 80 percent of the money has come in on Virginia, yet the line has dipped at half of the shops down to 6.5. Remember what we said about key numbers --- a move just under a line of 3, 7, 10 is totally warranted. Over the last 10 years, UVA is 44-57 on the road. And people are lining up to bet Virginia to not only win, but win by a score? Doesn’t make any sense to me. This is what my good friend Mike Hook and I call buying low, selling high. I sold on the Hoosiers as a ridiculous 7-point favorite, but I’m definitely buying them after the 14-point swing as new head coach Kevin Wilson’s back is against the wall. This game means more to Indiana. Expect a more relaxed, comfortable Hoosiers team this weekend playing at Memorial Stadium. And watch out for Indiana QB Ed Wright-Baker. The southpaw wears #7 on his back and dare I say, he has some qualities that remind me of a young Michael Vick at Virginia Tech. 22-for-32 last week for 272 yards a touchdown. I expect him to rally the troops and give Indiana their own shot to make some noise as a 7-point underdog.
1.5* Penn State +10
This is a HUGE revenge game for Penn State and the Big Ten. Alabama had an absolute cakewalk in its opener against Kent State, but the Tide are going to struggle throwing up "7s" on the Nittany Lions vaunted defense. And God help them if PSU gets out to an early start at home in front of those wild white-clad fans in Happy Valley. Last year, Bama shut down freshman Rob Bolden en route to a 24-3 win in Tuscaloosa, but Bolden's stock has risen immensely over the summer and his competitive battle with Matt McGloin has only sweetened the deal. The Nittany Lions have a senior offensive line and a solid backfield with Silas Redd and dual threat QB Bolden. On the other side of the ball, PSU has some serious NFL-caliber talent up front -- Eric Latimore and Devon Still are animals -- and the all-senior secondary matches up nicely with the Alabama receiving core. So yes, Linebacker U’s quote unquote weakest link on defense is their linebackers, and trust me when I say that they are far from weak. I don’t necessarily think PSU is going to dominate the game, I just know that Vegas has the line at 9.5-10 for a reason. Everybody is betting Alabama the same way everybody bet Oregon last week and we all know how that turned out. Said one offensive lineman, "Lots of the younger guys were intimidated last year at Alabama. We're more confident as an offense now. We're ready." I dig it. Bama has the speed advantage on defense, but when Penn State has the power in the trenches, the discrepancy isn't as large as you think. Alabama QB AJ McCarron is making his first ever road start at the collegiate level and Penn State's experienced front line is going to fluster Greg McElroy's protégé. My true line was about 7 and I'm thinking we're in for a 24-17 type football game . . . first one to 17 wins. Based on the position of the line and what the house needs, PSU covers this game 6 out of 10 times. I'm just playing the percentages.
Bryan Leonard
Rutgers at North Carolina
Play: North Carolina
Rutgers was outscored by 5.7 points per game last year in a 4-8 season. While many expect Greg Schiano to rebound this year we feel it will be more of the same in New Brunswick. The defense brings back just five starters and the starting cornerback tandem has just four combined starts between them. The running game that was so strong in the past with Brian Leonard (I just like mentioning his name), averaged just 2.7 ypc last season. The Scarlet Knights played four quality teams on the road last year and allowed 35 to West Virginia, 69 to Cincinnati, 28 to South Florida and 41 to Pittsburgh. They should be in for a long game against a big and physical Tar Heel team.
North Carolina has a stud in highly touted QB Renner and an experienced offensive line. After averaging just 25.3 ppg a season ago we can see this team blowing past the 30 ppg threshold. Defensively the Tar Heels allowed just 17.1 ppg in 2009 before suspensions decimated the stop unit last year. That said they still held the opposition to 23.2 ppg last season. With those players back for a full season we expect this defense to be one of the best in the country.
North Carolina played a very good James Madison team last week and the JMU coach was very impressed. He said North Carolina is the best team by far they have played in years. Keep in mind James Madison beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg last year when the Hokies were ranked #13 in the nation.
DAVID MALINSKY
4* Toledo / Ohio St Over 50
Many times early non-conference games with high lines like this one become stodgy affairs – the underdogs try to slow the pace early in order to hang in, and often take their skill people out late to avoid injuries, while the favorites are content to hold back, and save their best stuff for later in the schedule. A prime example of the concept would have been Ohio State’s 42-0 win over Akron here in Columbus last week.
This is not that game. For once we have an underdog that is going to attack aggressively, using a lot of no-huddle looks to accentuate what they do best. And after coasting last week we have a favorite that also needs to open up the offense playbook, with the Buckeyes having their schedule drastically pick up (at Miami F., home vs. Colorado and Michigan State, and at Nebraska in the next four weeks), and needing to show that both of their QB’s are ready to go.
Toledo may have the usual problems of a lack of depth on defense, but the Rockets can absolutely challenge when they have the ball – in Austin Dantin and Terrance Owens they have two QB’s capable of making plays; RB Adonis Thomas ran for 1,098 at 6.3 per carry LY and also caught 31 passes for 372 more yards; ER Eric Page caught an amazing 99 passes, while also being one of the nation’s best kick returners; and emerging SO WR Bernard Reedy now brings a compliment for Page on the other side, catching five passes for 113 yards and two TD’s in last week’s rout of New Hampshire. Toledo got off 83 offensive snaps in that win, and that pace is the best way for the Rockets to utilize their weapons.
Meanwhile the Buckeyes did not have to show much vs. Akron, but now it is time for QB’s Joe Bauserman and Braxton Miller to exhibit that they are ready for the challenges ahead. They have plenty of down-field weapons, with five different players having a reception of 20 yards or more last week, and now WR Corey Brown and RB Jordan Hall get added to the mix, after having to sit out with suspensions vs. Akron. That kind of firepower is too much for a Toledo defense that lacks the kind of depth and athleticism to hold up for 60 minutes.
Northcoast Comps
Early Line Mover - San Diego St
Dog - Cincinnati Bearcats
Star Rated Play - Washington Huskies
Economy Play - South Florida
NFL Total - Houston/Indianapolis Under
Big Dog - Midd Tenn St
RAS
Arkansas St -13.5
Army +10.5
Western Kentucky +12
Washington -3.5
California -4.5
New Mexico St./Minnesota Under 51.5
San Jose St./UCLA Over 47.5
Navy/West. Kentucky Over 51
Virginia/Indiana Under 55
Fresno St./Nebraska Over 50
Goldsheet
Solid Gold TCU -2
LTS
1' Units Hawaii +6
1 Unit Rutgers +10.5
1 Unit Alabama / Penn St Under 42
1 Unit Utah +9
1 Unit UCLA -21
Dr. Bob
Washington State (-13.5) 3-Stars at -14 or less, 2-Stars up to -17 points.
Auburn (+6.5) 2-Stars at +6 or more.
Opinions
Oregon State (+20 1/2) Strong Opinion at +20 or more.
Kansas (+5.5) Strong Opinion at +4 or more.
Northern Illinois / Kansas Over (60.5) Strong Opinion Over 63 or less.
Cincinnati (+5) Strong Opinion at +4 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +6 or more.
Vanderbilt (-1.5) Strong Opinion at -3 or less.
Central Florida (-7) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Michigan (+3.5) Strong Opinion at +3 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +4 1/2 or more.
Joseph D'Amico
TCU vs. Air Force
Play: TCU -1
TCU gave up 50 points to Baylor last week. They gave up a total of 156 points all of last season, in their 13-0 campaign. I look for the Frogs to begin their MWC play in high-style. TCU has traditionally always been prepared for the Air Force offense. HC Patterson gets his boys ready for this opponent. The Horned Frogs defense will not be spread as they were against Baylor. They have a huge size advantage on their OL that will allow QB Casey Pachall time to pick apart the Falcons "D." The Academy and their triple-option stormed for 391 yards a week ago over South Dakota. However, South Dakota still managed to post 20 points on them. QB Tim Jefferson was sloppy and out-of-sync in his 4 for 9 performance with 1 TD and 2 INTs. This week, a highly-motivated TCU stop unit will come out and avenge their Week 1 loss. TCU has won 17 straight MWC games. The Falcons are 1-6 ATS their L7 Conference games and 3-8 ATS their L11 overall. The Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS their L8 games played as a favorite of .5-3.0 points and 4-0 ATS their L4 games following a SU loss. Take TCU.
Today's Picks
San Diego State Aztecs -9.5
Mississippi State Bulldogs -6.5
Hawaii Warriors +6.5
Rice Owls +2
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3.5
Central Florida Golden Knights -7
Pointwise Phones
4* Cincinnati, Michigan
3* San Diego St, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Miss St, North Carolina, Oregon, S. Miss
2* Tulsa, Temple
DOUBLE DRAGON
TOP
MISSISSIPPI STATE -6
TCU -1.5
UTAH +8.5
MICHIGAN +3.5
REGULAR
WISCONSIN -20.5
CINCINNATI +5
OREGON -27
SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5
Gold Medal Club
10* Auburn +5.5
10* Kansas +5.5
Chip Chirimbes
California vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado +7
This will be Colorado's first game as a member of the PAC-10 although it won't count as a conference game because it was scheduled before they made it official. Last year at Berkeley the Bears won 52-7 as Cal turned in on scoring 21 fourth quarter points after the game was well decided. This year with more returning players the Buffaloes get their home revenge.