KBHoops
4* Iowa State +6.5
4* NC State -1.5
4* Notre Dame -3
Ultra Sports
Wake Forest
Cincinnati
Vanderbilt
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Cincinnati (+4.5) over Tennessee (NCAA Top Play)
Cincinnati has covered the spread in 11 consecutive games coming off a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better and they have also covered the spread in 8 of the last 9 games coming off a win by 35 points or more. Tennessee has lost 5 of the last 7 games against the spread when playing in the month of September and they have also lost 6 of the last 9 non-conference games against the spread.
100* Play Hawaii (+5.5) over Washington (NCAA Top Play)
Hawaii has covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games when playing in the 1st month of the season and they have also covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games coming off a win by 17 points or more. Washington has lost 21 of the last 27 games against the spread coming off a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better and they have also lost 14 of the last 19 games against the spread coming off a win by three points or less.
100* Play Notre Dame (-3) over Michigan (NCAA Top Play)
Notre Dame has covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games after gaining 375 passing yards or more and they have also won 7 of the last 8 games coming off a game with a turnover margin of -4 or worse. Michigan has lost 9 of the last 11 games as an underdog and they have also lost 10 of the last 14 games against the spread coming off a home game.
Frank Patron
Notre Dame / Michigan Over 55
Youngstown Connection
Ohio State -17
Minnesota -20
Oregon -26
Jimmy Boyd
5* Vanderbilt ML
4* Notre Dame -3
4* Oregon -26.5
3* Wake Forest +1.5
3* Brewers +1.5
DR. BOB
3* WASHINGTON ST. (-13.5) 40 UNLV 16
Washington State was horrible in coach Paul Wulff’s first two seasons, rating at about 18 points worse than average in 2008 and 2009, but the Cougars made big strides offensively last season (they went from being 1.2 yards per play worse than average offensively in ’09 to being 0.1 yppl better than average in 2010) and were just 4 points worse than an average team. I expect continued improvement this season, especially defensively, and I rated the Cougars at just 1 point worse than an average team heading into this season. The injury to starting quarterback Jeff Tuel, who was 0.8 yards per pass play better than average last season, is a blow, but senior backup Marshall Lobbestael has plenty of experience and he played well last week in the Cougars’ 64-21 win over lowly Idaho State, completing 14 of 19 passes for 230 yards and averaging 12.1 yards per pass play, which is good even when you consider that Idaho State would give up about 9 yppp on the road to an average quarterback. An average backup quarterback is about 0.5 yppp worse than the starter but Loebbestael was considerably worse than Tuel when they split time in 2009 and I can’t assume that last week is an indication that Loebbestael made up much of the gap between him and Tuel. I dropped the Cougars’ pass rating by 1.2 yards per pass play, which is 0.3 yppp worse than average. Washington State’s rushing attack also rates worse than average despite averaging a whopping 8.0 yards per rushing play on 36 runs last week. I may be being a bit too conservative in grading Washington State’s offense with Loebbestael at 0.2 yards per play worse than average, especially after last week’s showing, but I’d prefer to be conservative in my estimates until I see another game. I do expect the Cougars to post good offensively numbers again this week against a bad UNLV defense that was horrible last year (1.1 yards per play worse than average) and appears to be even worse this season with just 4 returning starters. The Rebels were steamrolled for 10.9 yppl by Wisconsin’s starting unit last week and I project Washington State to rack up 439 yards at 6.8 yppl against that unit in this game.
Washington State’s defense has been horrible in each of Wulff’s seasons but this is clearly his most experienced and most talented defensive unit and the Cougars should defend the pass well with all 4 of last season’s defensive back starters returning after rating at just 0.2 yards per pass play worse than average last season. The run defense is improved but I still rate them poorly in that department and overall I rate the Cougars’ stop unit at 0.4 yards per play worse than average after being 0.7 yppl worse than average last season. Don’t be too alarmed by the 5.7 yppl allowed last week to Idaho State, as most of that damage was done against the Cougars’ second and third string defenders after the starters were pulled in the 3rd quarter with a 54-7 lead. Washington State’s starting defense only gave up 3.0 yards per rushing play and 4.3 yards per pass play, which is actually a little better than I had projected them to be against Idaho State’s offense. UNLV’s offense shouldn’t pose much of a problem, as the Rebels averaged just 4.4 yppl before Wisconsin pulled their starters with a 51-3 lead (UNLV scored two touchdowns against the Badgers’ backups). I rate UNLV’s attack at 0.9 yppl worse than average and project them to gain 304 yards at 4.8 yppl in this game.
Overall my ratings favor Washington State by 17 points even with me being conservative on estimating the Cougars’ offense without starting quarterback Jeff Tuel. IN addition to the line value the Cougars apply to a very strong 43-7 ATS early season indicator while UNLV applies to a negative 36-87-2 ATS early season situation. UNLV managed to barely cover in last week’s 17-51 loss as a 35 ½ point underdog thanks to two late touchdowns against the Wisconsin backups, but the Rebels are still just 9-30 ATS on the road, including 1-7 ATS under their current coach – with all 8 road games under coach Hauck resulting a loss of 23 points or more. I’ll take Washington State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -17 points.
2* AUBURN (+6.5) 31 Mississippi St. 30
Auburn needed a miracle to beat Utah State last week and the Tigers certainly didn’t play as well as expected. However, Auburn did out-play the Aggies from the line of scrimmage 7.2 yards per play to 5.4 yppl and that’s not too much worse than what I had expected (7.3 yppl to 5.1 yppl is what my ratings projected). New Auburn quarterback Barrett Trotter looked good throwing the ball, completing 17 or 23 passes (74%) for an average of 11.3 yards per attempt and 9.8 yards per pass play (including sacks). The mystery offensively was the poor rushing numbers, as Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb, who combined for 1903 yards at 6.9 ypr last season, managed just 101 yards on 23 runs against a Utah State team that was expected to have a worse than average run defense. Overall, however, the offense was only 0.1 yppl worse than what I had expected and I expect Auburn to be very good offensively this season even without Cam Newton and with 4 new starters along the offensive line. In fact, I rate Auburn at 0.9 yards per play better than average offensively, which is about what they were in 2009 before Cam Newton joined the team. Mississippi State is good defensively, as I rate that unit at 0.8 yppl better than average (a bit better than last season) and the 4.1 yppl that the Bulldogs allowed to Memphis last week was exactly what my ratings projected for that game. Both the Auburn offense and Miss State defense played at the level my ratings projected last week, which makes me pretty comfortable in my projection of Auburn averaging 5.8 yppl in this game.
The variance in my model is projecting Mississippi State’s offense, as the Bulldogs averaged 9.4 yards per play last week against a horrible Memphis defense, which is much better than I projected. Auburn’s defense, meanwhile, played exactly as expected against the run (I projected them to allow 4.6 yards per rushing play and they did allow 4.6 yprp to Utah State) and the Tigers should be better than average in that category. However, the Auburn pass defense gave up a worse than average 6.8 yards per pass play to Utah State freshman quarterback Chuckie Keeton. I had expected Utah State to be a bit worse than average throwing the ball this season and for Auburn’s pass defense to be about average (6.1 yppp is average). The question is if the 6.8 yppp that Auburn allowed to Keeton is a function of Auburn’s pass defense being considerably worse than average or a function of Keeton being pretty darn good. I watched this game and Keeton was extremely poised and accurate, so I’m guessing Keeton is going to be a slightly better than average quarterback this season and that Auburn’s pass defense will also be a bit worse than average. Auburn’s defense did perform better as last week’s game went on and allowing 5.4 yards per play isn’t horrible (5.5 yppl was the national average last season), especially if Utah State is projected to be a bit better than average offensively. Auburn looks about average defensively on a national scale (not good for an SEC team) and it’s pretty clear that Mississippi State’s offense, with 9 starters returning, is much better than the unit that was just 0.2 yppl better than average last season. In fact, I rate the Bulldogs’ attack at 1.0 yppl better than average and project them to average 6.2 yppl in this game.
Mississippi State does have an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage, as their offense is slightly better than Auburn’s attack while the Bulldogs’ defense is considerably better than Auburn’s stop unit. However, the projected difference in total yards is just 50 yards and Auburn has superior special teams. I think the odds makers have over-adjusted for last week’s narrow Auburn victory without taking into account that the Tigers out-played Utah State 7.2 yppl to 5.4 yppl in that game. My adjusted ratings favor Auburn by ½ a point in this game and I still get Miss State by only 1 ½ points if Auburn’s pass defense is actually bad rather than Utah State’s quarterback Keeton being better than expected. My worst case scenario is that Auburn’s pass defense really is horrible and the problems they had running are real problems and not just variance. In that case I get Miss State by 4 points and there would still be some line value. Any line value at all would make the Tigers a solid play given that Mississippi State applies to a negative 18-54-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation while Auburn applies to a 28-7 ATS game two angle that plays on home underdogs that were 7-5 or better the previous season and both teams are coming off an opening day win. I’ll take Auburn in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
STRONG OPINIONS
Cincinnati (+5) 31 TENNESSEE 30
Cincinnati went from 12-1 in 2009 under coach Brian Kelly to just 4-8 last season in coach Butch Jones’ first season at the helm. However, the Bearcats were actually a good team last season despite their record, as they out-gained their Division 1A opponents 421 yards at 6.0 yards per play to 382 yards at 5.6 yppl but were derailed by a randomly bad -15 turnover ratio. The offense was even better when quarterback Zack Collaros was on the field (he missed a game and a half) and after a disastrous start in their opener at Fresno State (a confused offensive line allowed 8 sacks) Collaros averaged an impressive 7.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Collaros combines with RB Isaiah Pead, who ran for 1029 yard at 6.6 ypr last season (and 6.7 ypr in 2009), to give the Bearcats a very good attack that has potential to be even better given that Collaros averaged an incredible 10.9 yppp on 125 pass plays in 2009 while completing 75% of his passes (he completed more modest 59% last season and should be better). There is no doubt that Cincinnati will be very good offensively again this season and could be much better in the second year of Jones’ offense.
Cincinnati’s defense was a bit below average last season, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense, but the Bearcats had just 5 returning starters last season and all 11 of last year’s starters return for this campaign. Teams with 10 or 11 returning defensive starters improve an average of 0.5 yards per play, which would put the Bearcats’ defense at 0.3 yppl better than average, which is certainly reasonable. That unit will be up against what should be a good Tennessee offense led by sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray, who averaged 7.3 yppp last year (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) after taking over for Matt Simms at mid-season. The Vols lost their top 3 receivers from last season, including big play WR Denarius Moore (20.9 yards per catch), but Bray looked sharp last week and sophomore Justin Hunter looks more than capable of filling to void left by Moore (Hunter averaged 25.9 ypc on 16 catches last season and had 146 yards on 6 catches last week). Bray threw for 293 yards on 24 pass attempts (skewed a bit by an 81 yard pass) against a pretty solid Montana defense and I expect him to be even better this season as a sophomore. The Vols rushing attack couldn’t move the ball against Montana last week, averaging just 3.6 yards per rushing play and Cincinnati is very tough to run against (the Bearcats were 0.7 yprp better than average last season and should be even better this year). Tennessee was just average last season running the ball (4.5 yprp against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp) and they don’t appear to be any better this year – and it’s unlikely they’ll have much success running in this game – so it will be up to Bray to exploit a mediocre Cincinnati pass defense, which he should be able to do (I project 7.7 yppp for Bray in this game). Overall, my ratings project 416 yards at 6.1 yards per play for the Vols in this game, but that may not be enough to beat the Bearcats given the state of Tennessee’s defense and the explosiveness of Cincy’s attack.
Tennessee was mediocre defensively last season, allowing 5.7 yppl to a schedule of FBS teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team, and the Vols have just 4 of last year’s starters healthy with #2 tackler LB Herman Lathers still recovering from an injury and top defensive back FS Janzen Jackson (#3 tackler and 5 interceptions) having been dismissed from the team. Tennessee could still be better defensively in the second year under DC Justin Wilcox’ system, but giving up 346 yards at 5.1 yppl to 1AA team Montana last week suggest that the Vols’ stop unit still has issues – although 80 of those yards were on one pass play (a sign they may miss FS Jackson). I actually rate Tennessee’s defense at 0.2 yppl better than average this season, a bit better than last year, but that’s not nearly good enough to keep Cincinnati’s potent attack (1.1 yppl better than average) from moving the ball at a very good clip (I project 446 yards at 6.2 yppl). I expect Cincinnati to challenge for the Big East title this year and last week’s 72-10 win over a horrible Austin Peay team should have them confident for this game while Tennessee could get caught looking ahead to next week’s game with Florida. I actually think Cincinnati is a better team than Tennessee and my ratings favor the Bearcats by 1 point. I’ll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I’d take the Bearcats in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 or more.
KANSAS (+5.5) 35 Northern Ill 36
I’m not going to make a case for Kansas based on match-ups or line value, as my ratings favor Northern Illinois by 6 points in this game, but the Jayhawks apply to a very good 58-18 ATS early season indicator that plays on teams that were horrible the previous season and Northern Illinois applies to a negative 18-54-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation and a 33-80-1 ATS letdown situation based on their easy win over Army last week. I’ll consider Kansas a Strong Opinionbased on the strong technical analysis.
I also like the over in this game, as Northern Illinois’ no huddle attack led to 147 plays last week against an Army team that has averaged 122 total plays per game over the last 3 years with their methodical attack. Most similar types of no huddle attacks result in about 20 more total plays per game than average and I project 151 total plays in this game even with Kansas being a few plays below average in tempo. In addition to the additional plays, Kansas should be much improved offensively after being among the worst offensive teams in the nation last season (1.3 yards per play worse than average). Coach Turner Gill had a horrible first season offensively at Buffalo in 2006, but his offense improved significantly the next season and that appears to be the case with this year’s Jayhawks based on the 7.4 yppl that the Jayhawks racked up last week against a McNeese State defense that would have allowed 6.5 yppl on the road to an average Division 1A team last season (and returns all but one of last year’s defensive starters and should be better than that this season). I still rate the Kansas offense at 0.3 yppl worse than average but that unit should move the ball pretty well against a Northern Illinois stop unit that I rate at 0.8 yppl worse than average. Northern Illinois will also have success offensively, as the new offense appears not to have hurt the Huskies’ offensive production. Northern Illinois was very good offensively last season and the Huskies averaged 7.6 yppl in last week’s 49-26 win over Army (it was 49-6 after 3 quarters before they let up). Kansas was horrible defensively last season (0.8 yppl worse than average) and the 5.7 yppl that the Jayhawks gave up last week to McNeese State is also 0.8 yppl more than an average team would allow to McNeese. With both teams likely to move the ball well and with so many plays expected this ought to be a very high scoring game and I’ll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 64 points or less.
VANDERBILT (-1.5) 21 Connecticut 14
I don’t expect much scoring from either of these teams, as both teams are good defensively and challenged on the offensive side of the ball. Both teams are also led by new coaches, as former long time Syracuse head man Paul Pasqualoni is back roaming the sidelines for Connecticut while James Franklin gets his first head coaching job with Vandy. Vanderbilt is blessed with two good running backs but starting quarterback Larry Smith has been among the worst passers in the nation in two years as a starter and he gave no indication last week that anything has changed (4.6 yards per pass play against Elon is pathetic). The problem is that new coach Franklin appears intent on throwing the ball more than he runs it (59% pass plays last week), which seems odds given the talent at running back combined with Smith’s abysmal track record as a passer (although at least he doesn’t throw many interceptions). Connecticut returns 9 defensive starters from a unit that was solid last season and I project Vanderbilt at just 4.3 yards per play in this game. I also project U Conn’s poor attack to average 4.3 yppl against a good Vanderbilt defense that returns 8 starters, so these teams should be pretty even from the line of scrimmage. The Commodores do appear to have better special teams and they’re less likely to turn the ball over with Smith not making those kind of mistakes (just 12 interceptions total the last two seasons). My ratings favor Vanderbilt by 3 points and the Commodores apply to a very good 43-7 ATS early season indicator that is certainly good enough for me toconsider Vanderbilt a Strong Opinion in this game at -3 points or less.
CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7.0) 28 Boston College 16
It’s tough to assess Central Florida’s 62-0 win over Charleston Southern given how bad their opponent is, but I rate the Golden Knights a couple of points worse than last year’s 11-3 squad since the defense probably won’t be quite as good with just 4 returning starters. Boston College should be improved, especially offensively, with 9 returning offensive starters and sophomore quarterback Chase Rettig having had a year of growing pains as a freshman starter. The Eagles started off their season with an upset loss to Northwestern, who was without their All-Big 10 quarterback, but BC out-gained the Wildcats 6.6 yards per play to 5.4 yppl in that game – so they actually played well and the offense certainly appears to be much improved (Rettig averaged 7.5 yards per pass play). The major problem for Boston College is their pass defense, which is worse than average as long as star CB Donnie Fletcher remains out with his injured back. The Eagles gave up 7.3 yards per pass play to a backup quarterback last week without Fletcher and both projected starting safeties are no longer with the program. I think BC’s pass defense will be okay when Fletcher returns, which may be this week (he’s listed as questionable). My ratings only favor Central Florida by 5 ½ points with Fletcher out and the line has gone up from the opening line of UCF -6 points. The lack of line value will keep me from playing UCF as a Best Bet, but I still like the Golden Knights based on a very strong 42-3 ATS subset of a 130-57-1 ATS situation that hasn’t lost in 6 years. The strong situation more than makes up for the negative line value and I’ll consider Central Florida a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
MICHIGAN (+3.5) 30 Notre Dame 28
Notre Dame is coming off a disappointing opening loss to South Florida despite out-gaining USF 6.5 yards per play to 3.7 yppl and teams that lose at home in week 1 are just 17-38 ATS as a road favorite in their second game. Notre Dame also applies to a negative 28-75-2 ATS game 2 road favorite situation while Michigan applies to a 60-19-2 ATS game 2 situation as long as they remain an underdog of 3 points or more. To top it all off, the underdog in this series is 20-3 ATS since 1982. It doesn’t get much stronger than that from a technical perspective, but my ratings favor Notre Dame by 5 points and it appears the loss to South Florida has caused an adjustment against the Irish when their performance actually enhanced my rating on them. Michigan was impressive in their shortened game against Western Michigan, winning 34-10 and out-gaining the Broncos 7.6 yppl to 5.0 yppl. The Wolverines’ defense does appear to be much better this season but I still have questions about that unit. Michigan’s offense looks great and I actually rate that unit as slightly better than a very good Notre Dame defense. The Irish offense will have a new commander this week, as Tommy Rees takes over at quarterback after taking over for ineffective starter Dayne Crist last week. Rees was 24 for 34 for 296 yards and nearly led the Irish to a comeback win, but Rees played a lot last year too and I rate him slightly worse than Crist on a compensated yards per pass play basis (even after last week) and Rees continues to have trouble with interceptions. Rees threw 2 picks last week and now has thrown 10 interceptions on 198 passes, which is an alarmingly high rate and probably the main reason why Crist was named the starter to begin the season (Crist has just 8 interceptions on 309 attempts since last season). Notre Dame’s offense appears to have a significant edge over the Michigan defense, which I still rate at slightly worse than average (they were 0.8 yppl worse than average last season). It’s certainly possible that Michigan is more improved defensively than I think they are, which would make a line of 3 ½ points in this game reasonable and there is certainly value in favor of Michigan if Rees continues to throw interceptions at the high rate he has in the past (unlikely). However, I think the line should be 5 points and I’m not willing to give up the line value to make Michigan a Best Bet in this game even with the overwhelming technical analysis favoring the Wolverines. I’ll consider Michigan a Strong Opinion in this game at +3 points or more and I’d take Michigan in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 ½ points or more.
Northern Ill 36 at KANSAS 35 OVER 60.5
I’m not going to make a case for Kansas based on match-ups or line value, as my ratings favor Northern Illinois by 6 points in this game, but the Jayhawks apply to a very good 58-18 ATS early season indicator that plays on teams that were horrible the previous season and Northern Illinois applies to a negative 18-54-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation and a 33-80-1 ATS letdown situation based on their easy win over Army last week. I’ll consider Kansas a Strong Opinionbased on the strong technical analysis.
I also like the over in this game, as Northern Illinois’ no huddle attack led to 147 plays last week against an Army team that has averaged 122 total plays per game over the last 3 years with their methodical attack. Most similar types of no huddle attacks result in about 20 more total plays per game than average and I project 151 total plays in this game even with Kansas being a few plays below average in tempo. In addition to the additional plays, Kansas should be much improved offensively after being among the worst offensive teams in the nation last season (1.3 yards per play worse than average). Coach Turner Gill had a horrible first season offensively at Buffalo in 2006, but his offense improved significantly the next season and that appears to be the case with this year’s Jayhawks based on the 7.4 yppl that the Jayhawks racked up last week against a McNeese State defense that would have allowed 6.5 yppl on the road to an average Division 1A team last season (and returns all but one of last year’s defensive starters and should be better than that this season). I still rate the Kansas offense at 0.3 yppl worse than average but that unit should move the ball pretty well against a Northern Illinois stop unit that I rate at 0.8 yppl worse than average. Northern Illinois will also have success offensively, as the new offense appears not to have hurt the Huskies’ offensive production. Northern Illinois was very good offensively last season and the Huskies averaged 7.6 yppl in last week’s 49-26 win over Army (it was 49-6 after 3 quarters before they let up). Kansas was horrible defensively last season (0.8 yppl worse than average) and the 5.7 yppl that the Jayhawks gave up last week to McNeese State is also 0.8 yppl more than an average team would allow to McNeese. With both teams likely to move the ball well and with so many plays expected this ought to be a very high scoring game and I’ll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 64 points or less.
BIG AL
3* Wash St
3* Army
3* Iowa St
3* UTEP
3* Kansas
3* Indiana
Elite Info - Central Florida
Heisman
5* San Diego St Under
5* Florida Atl Over
5* Georgia Tech Under
Big Daddy
20* Stanford -20
12* Tulsa -12.5
12* Teaser Stanford -14, Tulsa -6.5
PPP
5% Texas
5% So. Miss
4% Wash St
4% Duke
3% SMU
3% Ball St
3% Arkansas
5% So Miss Over
4% Kentucky Under
4% Kansas Over
3% TCU Under
3% Texas Under
3% Boston College Under
ATS Lock Club
15 Units N Illinois
7 Units Cal
7 Units Purdue Over
7 Units Houston
6 Units Indiana
6 Units Indiana Under
6 Units Houston Over
5 Units TCU Over
Ben Burns
10* Mich St
10* Washington
10* Duke
10* Georgia
10* N Texas
10* UCLA Under
Joe D
25* Cincinnati
20* Rice
20* Houston
15* Texas
15* San Diego St
Mike Neri
3* Washington St
3* Central Florida