Lenny Del Genio
25* CFB Rivalry Game of the Year - Notre Dame
Veterans of Las Vegas betting will tell you that this matchup has the perfect setup to take the Irish in the first ever night game at "The Big House." Last week's results were very misleading for both of these schools, particularly Michigan. We caught a bit of a break in going against the Wolverines last Saturday as their 34-10 win over Western Michigan is viewed as "no action" by the books since the contest failed to go 55 minutes as both teams agreed to call off the game due to inclement weather. A look inside the box score reveals that Michigan was pretty fortunate as well last week. Total yardage for the game favored Michigan by only a 287-279 margin and first downs were even at 17 per side. The game swung on a huge 94 yd INT return by Wolverines LB Herron in the 2nd quarter when the game was tied at 7-7 at WMU was threatening to take the lead. Then, Herron would score a second TD via turnover becoming the first Michigan defender ever to do so twice in the same game. As outlined last week, the Michigan defense remains very shaky as they showed by giving up a TD to the Broncos on the opening drive. Last year, they were positively awful in allowing 458 points and 5,860 total yds! Now, Notre Dame was involved in a similar kind of game LW at home vs USF - only they came out on the 'short end of the stick' in a game severely impacted by weather (delays totaling 3 hrs - but not called). The Irish fell outright to the Bulls 23-20 as 10-point favorites, but the box score 'tells the story' as they were -5 in turnovers with almost all of the miscues coming at the worst possible moments. In fact, both QB's threw INT's in goal-to-go situations and there was also a 96 yr fumble return for a TD that swung the game similar to the Mich-WMU contest when it was tied 7-7. Irish HC Brian Kelly has the more talented unit here and will be switching starting QB's from Dayne Christ to Tommy Rees after the latter looked much better LW. We are well aware of the history of upsets in this rivalry game w/ the underdog winning outright six of the last seven years. Interestingly, at the same time, the home team is just 3-9 SU the past 12 meetings. However, doesn't it feel like Notre Dame is the "underdog" here? They have double revenge for losses each of the L2 yrs where they held the lead in the final :30 seconds only to lose both SU and ATS. They have not lost three straight times to Michigan in over 100 years! Michigan is just 3-8 ATS as a dog L2 seasons, including 0-3 ATS at home if taking 3.5 to 7 pts. Notre Dame is our 25* Rivalry Game of the Year.
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