Nelly
3* UAB +11.5 over SMU
It has not taken long for June Jones to turn around the Mustangs with a dominant bowl win last season and high aspirations in Conference USA this season. SMU beat UAB 35-33 last season on the road as double-digit underdogs although the Blazers had more yards in the game with a big edge on the ground. UAB had a 345-93 yard rushing edge last week yet still managed to lose as heavy home favorites. Being a double-digit underdog will be a much more favorable situation and a more comfortable role for an improved UAB team that still has not been able to take the next step. Having played on Thursday while SMU played on Sunday will be a big advantage in this game and there is little reason to expect SMU to stop the Blazers on the ground. UAB should be a much better defensive team this season and the running game should be effective behind new QB David Isabelle who rushed for over 200 yards last week. UAB does not have a great passing attack but the top two receivers are back with the team and there will be more holes to hit against the Mustangs defense. SMU failed in a late upset bid with turnovers hurting the cause last week. The performance was not as respectable of a result as the final looked as the yardage was not that close in the loss to Texas Tech and SMU was well behind most of the way. A comeback bid made the game appear close, but it had a cost as well as QB Kyle Padron injured his hand. He is expected to play this week but he may not be 100 percent and the Mustangs clearly poured a lot into last week’s game emotionally. SMU has not covered as a home favorite in the last two years and the Mustangs appear to be overvalued in this critical conference clash between two teams looking for their first wins of the season. SMU has lost six straight home openers against FCS teams and the Mustangs have failed to cover in eight straight games as favorites. UAB does not have a strong S/U track away from home but the Blazers will be a dangerous underdog that can run the ball with great success and control the clock in this game. Motivational edges should side with the Blazers as well after a narrow loss last season in this match-up and after failing in the opening game despite being the better team. With a double-digit spread the Blazers look like a very favorable play in this match-up and we expect a competitive game decided by a single-score with a UAB upset as a serious possibility even with the double-digit spread.
Point Train
6-Units Oregon (-11.5) over Tennessee
Both teams are coming off blowout wins in their respective season openers. Oregon scored 59 points in the first half en route to a 72-0 victory over New Mexico. Tennessee defeated FCS UT-Martin 50-0. The Vols are still in major rebuilding mode and we like the Ducks to come in and win big.
Tennessee is returning just three starters on offense and six on defense. They inserted Jr. Matt Simms at quarterback and looked decent – but not spectacular – against UT-Martin, completing 14 of 24 passes for 181 yards. They’ve had to replace all FIVE starters on the offensive line. Look for them to struggle against a veteran Ducks defense (Dcks return eight of their nine top defenders), especially DE Kenny Rowe (11.5 sacks last season).
The Vols have played Pac-10 UCLA the past two seasons, and lost both times. UCLA was just 11-14 the past two seasons, and Tennessee couldn’t beat them. They are also 0-7 against teams ranked in the top-15 the past two seasons, losing by an average of 15.1 points per game.
Oregon has compiled a 20-6 record over the past two seasons, and is 6-3 against Top-25 talent. They have an electric offense, evident by their 72 point victory last week without their top-running back LaMichael James. Kenjon Barmer, Ramene Alston Jr., and Daryle Hawkins combined to run for 325 yards (6.7 yards per carry) and 5 touchdowns in his absence. Expect Oregon’s running backs to have a lot of success against Tennessee on Saturday. The Vols lost their four top defenders from a year ago and two of their projected starters on the defensive line are both out with injuries.
Tennessee is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pac-10. Expect Oregon to put up a lot of points against Tennessee and to walk away with a blowout win.
RAS
All 1 Unit
Arkansas St +3
San Diego St -10.5
Temple Under 49.5
Troy Over 61
Texas Over 49.5
Buffalo Over 49.5
Georgia Under 49
Wisconsin Under 56
San Diego St Over 47.5
DR BOB
Syracuse (+13 1/2) 2-Stars at +11 or more.
Opinions
Georgia (+3) Strong Opinion at +3 or more.
Air Force (-1) Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less.
Ohio (-9) Strong Opinion at -10 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -7 or less.
Stanford (-5) Strong Opinion at -7 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.
Oklahoma State (-13 1/2) Strong Opinion at -14 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -12 or less.
BOB VALENTINO
SEC GAME OF THE YEAR
60 Dime Vanderbilt Commodores
Gold Medal Club
25* Tennessee- +12
10* Army -3
10* UCLA +6
COACH K
5* Stanford -6
3* Colorado St +24
2* Notre Dame -3 (-115)
2* Kansas +14.5
Sal DeVito
10* Georgia Tech -13.5
Teddy Covers
20* Mississippi Rebels -20.5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3.5
Alabama Crimson Tide -12
Stanford Cardinal -6
DOUBLE DRAGON
GEORGIA TECH -14
CALIFORNIA -10
OKLAHOMA -6
MICHIGAN +4
BYU +2
Brandon Lang
100 Dime LSU
PPP
5% BYU
5% San Diego St
4% USC
3% Florida St.
TIM TRUSHEL
20* Colorado
S.Florida
TIM TRUSHEL
20* Colorado Buffaloes
S.Florida
David Malinsky
4* EASTERN MICHIGAN over MIAMI O.
Let’s establish some perspective here. Miami O. is 3-22 SU the last 2+ seasons, with one of the wins coming in an unlined game vs. Charleston Southern. The other two wins both came by seven points. In their lined games in that stretch the RedHawks averaged 15.9 points per game. In 2009 they were #116 (of 120 teams) in the nation in scoring offense, #119 in rushing offense, #120 in sacks allowed, #104 in passing efficiency, #120 in kickoff returns, #118 in net punting, and #113 in sacks recorded by the defense. In 2008 it was #107 in scoring offense, #101 in rushing offense, #101 in passing efficiency (note back-to-back seasons of rating worse than 100th in both rushing offense and passing efficiency, an awful daily-double), #106 in rushing defense, #108 in pass efficiency defense, #101 in scoring defense and #108 in defensive sacks. Yet suddenly this team is favored by more than their scoring average of the last 2+ seasons. And for further perspective, the 5th year SR’s on the Miami roster have played 33 MAC games in their career, and have won one of them by more than seven points.
So what is going on here? Why is a young team (only five SR starters) bereft of big-play ability, or the actual experience of winning games, elevated to this point? Largely because of a result at Florida on Saturday that we do not believe means all that much in terms of upgrading Michael Haywood’s team. The Gators were remarkably sloppy that day, letting the ball touch the ground nine times via either a fumble (Miami O. recovered three of them), or a bad snap. So perhaps we give the RedHawks some credit for hanging tough and competing on defense. But do we elevate an offense that did not score a TD, and managed only 212 yards in 68 snaps, including four INT’s? Absolutely not.
So what are we left with? A favorite that lacks the talent, swagger or confidence to get anything easily, and one that is not looking to go for the jugular here anyway. When you are so bereft of wins, you do not possess a killer instinct, and if anything the failure to win games in the past often makes for outstanding situations to buck bad teams when they are big chalk. There is such a tendency by the coaches to go conservatively to try to hang on and gut the game out, because they are so rarely playing with a lead, that they play right into the hands of the underdog from an ATS standpoint.
So Miami is a bad team that was handed a lot of gifts last week yet still lost by 22 points, and now lays major wood here despite not having appreciable edges in size, speed or overall talent. So can we trust this underdog? Absolutely, vs. this class, and especially at this tempo. Ron English has made a concerted focus to improve the Eagle ground game in his second season, and we saw immediate dividends paid vs. Army last week – both QB Alex Gillett and RB Dwayne Priest ran for over 100 yards, part of a 285 at 5.6 per carry they generated as a team, and they held the lead until the Black Knights scored with 0:38 remaining to escape 31-27. Eastern may not be talented, but the Eagles played hard, and smart, in that game, not being flagged for a single penalty. So if we get a big underdog that is going to run the ball to slow the game flow, vs. a favorite that lacks the big-play ability to score quickly or easily, this becomes a mountain of a pointspread to climb, and this particular favorite is not accustomed to that altitude at all.