Joseph D'Amico
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Play: Alabama Crimson Tide -11½
This is a huge Week 2 matchup. The Defending National Champion’s will be without Heisman winner RB Mark Ingram. But they aren’t worrying. #2 RB, Trent Richardson filled in quite nicely LW in Bama’s 48-3 dismantling of San Jose State. Richardson, Lang, and Goode combined for 243 YR and 4 TD’s. The defense completely shut down SJ State, and held them to just 7 FD’s and 175 yards. I know SJ State is not near the class of Penn State. But this is a team in sync. The Nittany Lion’s beat Youngstown State 44-14 a week ago. QB Robert Bolden looked good, throwing for 239 yards, 2 TD’s, and 1 INT. However, this will be a very different road environment against a great ”D” led by now healthy LB Dont’a Hightower. Alot of people say that Penn State actually took a step down in talent TY. They have very few recent big wins and the Big 10 has struggled in big games against the SEC. Tide QB Greg McElroy can and will exploit the Nittany Lion’s stop unit that allowed Iowa and Ohio State to rack up 391 combined YR in their 2 losses LY. Nick Saban and Alabama have been practicing for this game for weeks. With a big win here, ‘Bama solidifies their perch atop the National Ranks. The Crimson Tide is 7-1 ATS their L8 games played in September, 4-1 ATS their L5 games at home, and 4-1 ATS their L5 non-conference games. The Nittany Lion’s are 0-6 ATS their L6 games played in September and 1-4 ATS their L5 non-conference games. Take Alabama.
Gold Medal Club
25* Tennessee- +12
10* Army -3
10* UCLA +6
Adding
25* Tulsa
10* UAB
ASA
5* Alabama
AntonWins
3 Units Air Force -1
Sam Clayton
2* MICH vs ND -3 -120
Looking for continued success on the gridiron, I'm particularly drawn to this marquee matchup on Saturday afternoon. Where do I start? Okay, how about PUBLIC PERCEPTION. Michigan, I mean Denard Robinson, looked ELECTRIC against a surprisingly slow Connecticut defense last weekend on national television. Boy, can this kid run the damn football. He isn't as good of a passer as meets the eye, I allocate that more toward Randy Edsall trying to adjust by loading the box, thus hanging his relatively weak secondary out to dry. Notre Dame on the other hand really put the breaks on against Purdue and coasted the entire second half. And had the Irish really capitalized in the Boilers' red zone --- ahem, Michael Floyd's fumble on the 2 and TJ Jones dropping a surefire touchdown --- the game could have very well been ND 34-3 at the end of the third quarter instead of 20-3. So at the end of the day, Michigan looked GREAT; the Irish so-so.
For all the hype around Robinson, the kid is still incredibly raw and he hasn't been thrown into the wild yet. That's right, last week was his FIRST career collegiate start. It's one thing to tear it up in an extremely important "program game" in front of 100,000+ Big Blue fans in Ann Arbor. It's quite another to make your FIRST ROAD START in South Bend against a bitter rival that can light up the scoreboard in a New York minute. I cease to believe Robinson will be calm and collected as he was against UConn and I'm banking on a quick, underrated Notre Dame defense that is far too familiar with the spread offense to hold their own. Everybody seems to think the Irish defense is loaded with unathletic, unaware cadavers that aren't capable of moving, let alone tackling. (Note: I find it hilarious that after being writen off all off-season, Michigan is suddenly a dangerous team with a "Heisman candidate" under center). Fellow spreadsman Brian Kelly will be able to alter and change looks against Robinson with his very athletic defensive unit, notably DE Kapron Lewis-Moore and linebackers Darius Fleming and Manti Te'o. Then, when the spy and contain packages slow down Robinson's legs, he'll try to exploit a secondary boasting three seniors and junior Jamoris Slaughter. All these expectations for the aforementioned sophomore that hasn't started a road game?! Not so fast my friend!
On the offensive end, Notre Dame has the perfect balance of power and speed. Armando Allen is an absolute horse out of the backfield and QB Dayne Crist has a fantastic triumverate --- WRs Floyd and Jones, TE Kyle Rudolph --- to rely on through the air. Those three put LOADS of pressure on a very young, very inexperienced Wolverines secondary that got some lucky breaks against UConn. Kelly did a superb job last weekend using his weapons in their areas of strength. Floyd was targeted mostly on the perimeter with fade routes and thin posts while Rudolph lined up in-line, but also flexed out in the slot. The 6-6 tight end is a MASSIVE target for Crist and he just so happens to double as a safety blanket. I fail to see anybody in blue and maize that can contain him. Back to Michigan's depleted secondary, RichRod will imploy a lot of zone coverage not wanting to get beat on the home run. However, this can and will backfire giving the ND skill players ample wiggle room to attack the cushion areas.
This game also lines up nicely for the Sam Clayton special, the REVENGE ANGLE. Last season was supposed to be the year for Jimmy Clausen and Co., yet it was THIS game last year (38-34 LOSS in Ann Arbor) that opened up the flood gates for an inevitable Irish downward spiral and Charlie Weis' eventual termination in South Bend. Something tells me the Irish will have that extra edge on Saturday, which doesn't bode well for Michigan. It's already bad enough that the home team has DOMINATED this matchup --- host is 7-3 ATS L10 contests --- now the Wolverines have to stamper into the home of Touchdown Jesus and try and knock them off for the second straight year. Oh boy.
Call me insane, but at the current marker I believe the VALUE is with Notre Dame. Vegas opened up the Irish as a six-point favorite and 10,800 wagers later with 77 percent off the money on Michigan, I'm locking this spread in at 3.5. I spoke earlier about the public overvaluing Michigan and underestimating Notre Dame. You have to wonder if all those bettors that were burned going against Michigan last week will change over and roll with the Wolverines on Saturday. Then again, you don't have to think, that's exactly what is happening here. I see past the hype and will roll with the Irish, benefactors of back-to-back home games to open their season. Last week against Purdue was a chance to iron out the kinks. When that was accomplished and the Irish took a 20-3 lead, they punched it into cruise control and began to direct ALL their attention toward Michigan, that overhyped school with the quarterback that has yet to start a road game.
Evan Altemus
4 Units Oklahoma / Florida St.Over 57
Florida State’s offense is going to be explosive last year, as they have one of the better quarterbacks in the country and a great offensive line returning. However, they have many question marks on defense, especially with the young and inexperienced secondary. The Seminoles defense was just horrible against the run last year, giving up over 200 yards per game on the ground. Their blowout win against Samford to start the season was a little deceiving because their defense is going to struggle this season, especially at first when they are still learning Mark Stoops new defensive scheme. Oklahoma’s offense scaled back last week against Utah State, as they didn’t want to show too much before their game this week against Florida State. The Sooners have enough offensive weapons to put up points against the Seminoles, and I expect Florida State to be able to move the ball against a fairly young and inexperienced Oklahoma defense. Look for this game to go over the total.
3 Units E. Michigan +16
I did not think that Eastern Michigan would be much improved from last season. However, I was wrong, as the Eagles were able to cover against a decent Army team and having a chance to win outright. Oddsmakers apparently are going to take a few games to adjust to just to the improvement of Eastern Michigan. This point spread is really surprising considering just one win separated these two teams last season. This point spread could also be reflecting last week’s results where Miami of Ohio played Florida somewhat tough and covered the point spread. However, that result was almost exclusively because of Florida’s lack of effort and execution. Miami also simply isn’t a high scoring team, as their offense is predominantly based on running the ball. I expect this game to be much closer than this point spread would indicate, as Eastern Michigan just isn’t this much worse than Miami. Look for the Eagles to cover.
3 Units Tennessee / Oregon Under 53
This selection is a great chance to fade last week's results and what the public saw. Both of these teams had huge offensive performances with Oregon putting up 72 points and Tennessee putting up 50 points. However, they faced very poor teams in New Mexico and Tennessee Martin. Oregon and Tennessee just used their size and athleticism advantage to a huge rushing advantage. However, both offenses won't be able to do as well in this game against vastly better defenses. This game features two quarterbacks with not much starting experience. In addition the Volunteers have five new offensive linemen this season and some of their offensive weapons out for this game. Oregon meanwhile is also playing a new quarterback with not much experience, and now Darron Thomas will face a much bigger defensive front seven. Tennessee's offense is going to struggle, and I expect them to slow down Oregon enough to keep this game under the total, especially with Oregon playing on the road with an inexperienced quarterback.
Bryan Leonard
BYU at Air Force
Play: BYU
The Cougars simply aren't getting enough respect here in a series they have dominated. In the Bronco Mendenhall era BYU has beaten the Falcons by margins of 17, 14, 25, 19 and 21 points. Also in the Mendenhall era the Cougars are 20-8 straight up on the road. BYU lost a lot of talent in the offseason but this is a program that recruits extremely well. They surprised a lot of late money bettors last week knocking off road favorite Washington 23-17 in Provo. The last four years BYU has posted an incredible 29-3 straight up mark in the Mountain West Conference. There is simply no way they should be in this price range here.
Air Force really struggled out of the gate last week hosting Northwestern State. They only led at the half 24-21 before wearing out the weaker opponent later on with their physical running game. But that won't be the case this week as the Falcons have really struggled against this BYU defense. Over the last four meetings Air Force has averaged 16.3 ppg against BYU. Compare that to the 27.4 ppg they averaged overall the past four seasons. That's a huge differential and it's even higher if we take out the BYU games from that equation. Air Force has dropped their last six games in this series by 14 or more points. This BYU program hasn't dropped off anywhere close to that degree.
LARRY NESS
MAC GAME OF THE YEAR
10* Ohio U
LPW Sports Forecast
100 Unit Elite Access Ole Miss -20.5 over Tulane
Tulane should be in a World of Hurt here against a furious and far more talented Rebel team.Greenwave struggled last week vs SE Louisiana and struggled to Run ball in that game.This Ole Miss defense is far more talented then they showed in last weeks upset loss to Jacksonville St and we should see it Saturday Night. Look for Rebels to benefit from great field position all night and Roll Over Tulane. Ole Miss 10-4 ats in last 14 road games and Tulane 8-21-1 ats in last 30 home games! Lay it!
10 Unit Game of Week - CSU/Nevada Over 57
CSU only managed 3 points last week against Colorado but that is a bit misleading as QB Thomas threw 3 crucial picks even as he completed 72% of passes. We feel both of these teams will be able to move ball and CSU poises more of a challenge for Nevada then did E.Washington last week. Take Over here
8 Unit Underdog Game of Week Michigan +3.5 over Notre Dame
Impressive opening week Win for Michigan last week and we feel this is a solid spot for them against Irish.Anyone wanting to lay this should consider the Irish are 8-20 ats in last 28 home games and albeit last week Win was impressive, it was against Purdue!! Take points in a Game we feel Wolverines Win SU!
6 Units Army -3 over Hawaii
We were impressed with Hawaii's grit last week vs Trojans, but feel travel and completely different offense will present challenges for Hawaii here. Lay Point
6 Units Bowling Green +17 over Tulsa
Bowling Green a little better then what many expected and Tulsa is simply struggling on Defense right now.Bowling Green should keep this game competitive.Grab Points!
Other College Plays For Saturday Sep.11th
5 Units Alabama -12 over Penn State
5 Units Florida Atlantic +28 over Michigan State
5 Units Tennessee +12 over Oregon
5 Units Rice +3 over North Texas St
Lenny Del Genio
VEGAS ICON - GEORGIA TECH
It goes without saying that the 1st game of the Turner Gill era at KU did not go according to plan. Last Saturday, the Jayhawks suffered a shocking 6-3 loss to FCS North Dakota State despite allowing just 168 yards of total offense. The problem however was the offense, which gained just 293 total yards and turned the ball over three times. Starting QB Kale Pick, a sophomore, was ineffective and had to be replaced by backup Jordan Webb. Normally, you'd expect a huge bounce back effort in Lawrence from the home team, but we believe that Gill inherited a true mess here and that opening week performance may be a sign of things to come. The ugly firing of Mark Mangino left the cupboard pretty bare and despite 13 starters returning from a year ago, the losses of QB Todd Reesing (school's all-time passing leader) and WR's Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier (two careers with 200+ receptions) were huge. It is quite rare to lose that kind of production at the wideout position in one year and last week we saw the results. Furthermore, we wonder if the hiring of Gill is all its cracked up to be. A much celebrated hire due to the pathetic lack of racial progress in College Football, Gill's resume essentially hangs its hat on a fortune-filled 2008 season at Buffalo with the team benefiting from several close wins and a incredible turnover ratio. His Bulls team actually ranked just 8th in the MAC that year in yard differential per game and was whipped in its bowl game by UConn 38-20 (outgained 407-237) His 4-year record at Buffalo was just 20-30 remember. Dating back to the end of the Mangino era, Kansas has actually lost eight straight games with the lone cover coming by a single point in the regular season finale vs. rival Missouri. They try and avoid their first 0-2 start since a 2-10 season in '02, but that's "easier said than done" against a Georgia Tech team that presents a matchup nightmare. Playing in the Big 12, the Jayhawks are accustomed to playing pass-happy offenses, so they're in for a rude awakening against the top rushing attack in the country from a year ago. Last week vs. their FCS opponent (41-10 W over S Carolina State), the Yellow Jackets threw just twice the entire game while 12 different rushers combined for 372 yards (6.6 yds per carry) and six touchdowns. This is the third year of HC Paul Johnson's systems and what he's accomplished in his first two years in Atlanta is pretty amazing considering the steep learning curve in converting to the triple option. He had GT in the Orange Bowl last year and returns 14 starters. The team is now 10-2 ATS in true road games during his tenure, including six straight covers on Saturday. Predating his tenure, the Yellow Jackets are 6-2 SU vs. non-conf BCS teams away from home. Although the defense struggled a bit in its first game playing as a 3-4 under new DC Al Groh, the offensive deficiencies of Kansas should make life pretty easy on Saturday. They are a phenomenal 10-1 ATS coming off a win by 28 or more points and this programs usually starts strong no matter whom the coach is with a 16-6 ATS record the 1st two weeks of the season going back over a decade. Kansas has gone 0-4 ATS the past two seasons as a home dog. Georgia Tech is our CFB "VEGAS ICON" Play.
LARRY NESS
MAC GAME OF THE YEAR
10* OHIO U
Toledo was unable to generate much offense at all at home last Friday night against a suspect Arizona defense which returned only four starters from a season ago. Arizona coach Mike Stoops was very worried in the press prior to the game given his defense's poor performances in practices and scrimmages. Unfortunately for the Rockets, Toledo made this unit look like the New York Jets, as the team's usually effective spread offense (which ranked 12th in the nation in 2009) managed only 183 total yards. Sophomore QB Austin Dantin looked shaky while completing 14-of-23 passes for only 101 yards and an interception. Toledo entered this season with big concerns about its running game after graduating DaJuane Collins (991 YR in '09). These fears appear justified as the Rockets gained only 80 yards on the ground with just a 2.9 YPC average. Now Toledo must go on the road to face Frank Solich's Ohio Bobcats, who return six starters from a defense that allowed only 21.3 PPG last year. Solich is developing a strong program at Ohio (two MAC East titles and two bowl games in five seasons) and he has high expectations for this season's club. Note that when Solich won the MAC East in '06, that defense allowed just 18.3 PPG. He expects this year's unit to be on par with those two. Ohio tied Texas for most takeaways last season and had three vs Wofford, one of which was returned for a TD. "It's time to take the next step" said Solich. "We have more depth than we've ever had. If all goes well, we should have a great chance of having a good year." Ohio won the MAC's East Division in 2009 and did a good job in containing the dynamic spread offense of Central Michigan (led by QB Dan LeFevour) in the MAC Championship game, despite losing 20-10. MLB Noah Keller emerged as one-man wrecking crew to end the season with his 16 tackles against CMU and then 17 tackles in Ohio's bowl game. He's back and the Bobcats defense will be well prepared to handle Toledo's struggling spread offense. However, the Rockets' bigger concern is their nearly non-existent defense which allowed 37.7 PPG and just under 410 YPG last season. Toledo returned only four starters from last year's group this season and the team's inexperience showed as Arizona walked up and down the field for over 500 total yards. Boo Jackson is healthy and back as the Bobcats starting QB plus Iowa St transfer Phil Bates is on hand to give Ohio solid depth at that position. Jackson was injured in Ohio's second game last year and missed the rest of the season (opening the door for QB Theo Scott who has since graduated). Jackson WAS and IS the better QB given his dual-threat capabilities and a very strong arm. LaVon Brazill and Terrence McCrae combined for 15 TD catches last season and may be the best WR duo in the MAC. Three starters return on the offensive line to help a rushing attack that needs to improve. The results from Ohio's 33-10 win over Wofford are encouraging, as Vince Davidson and Ryan Boykin led a ground game that accumulated 230 yards with a more than respectable 4.9 YPC average. Toledo hardly looked ready for "prime-time" vs Arizona and that should come as no surprise. While the Rockets were an impressive 55-19 (.743) the first six years of the previous decade (2000-05), they were just 18-30 (.375) the last four years (2006-09), including 5-18 on the road. Note that 15 of those 18 road losses have come by at least double digits, with the average margin of defeat coming by a whopping 19.6 PPG. These two Mid American Conference teams have not met since their 43-40 barnburner in 2007. Toledo won that contest (Ohio racked up 560 yards but seven TOs did them in) but they do not seem to be close to the same level as that team. Solich's crew should take care of the Rockets with ease and if you check Ohio's schedule, a 10-win season is not much of a stretch.
MTi Sports
4* Reds
4* Angels
4* Cubs
Stu Feiner
South Florida +17
Eddie Roman
Washington Huskies -13
Alabama Crimson Tide -12.5
Oklahoma State Cowboys -7 (First Half)
Bobby Esposito
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3.5
Colorado Buffaloes +10
Air Force Falcons -1.5
Anthony Redd
60 Dime Army
15 Dime South Carolina
15 Dime Florida State
15 Dime California
KIKI SPORTS
3 Units California -10
2 Unit Notre Dame -3.5
1 Unit Georgia Tech -13.5
1 Unit Vanderbilt +10
1 Unit Iowa State +13.5
1 Unit Florida State -7
1 Unit Alabama -12