Christian Alexander
Stanford at UCLA
Pick: UCLA +6
After laying an egg at Kansas State last weekend, I smell a bounce back for the Bruins this weekend at home. And it certainly doesn't hurt that Stanford hasn't won in Pasadena since 1996, losing six straight to the Bruins and falling to Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1, 2000. The Cardinal is still going to be tough but they won't sneak up on anyone this season and I think without bruising Toby Gerhart, they have lost some of their toughness. UCLA corrects some mistakes from week one and takes down Stanford.
DEREK MANCINI
25 Dime - Oklahoma
It's funny how bettors everywhere are looking at this game as the "lock of the week," touting the Seminoles excellent play in the opener versus the Sooners god awful effort against Utah State. BIG MISTAKE.
I can tell you two things that are going to happen in this contest that will lead to the public getting burned by the Seminoles. First, Florida State will not be the juggernaut we saw against sorry-*** Samford this afternoon in Norman. Who cares if they beat Samford by 50 or 100 points... It's still Samford! The Sooners are an infinately better team, coming off such a disappointing effort against Utah State, I expect their defense to bounce back big time today. It's clear the Sooners got caught looking ahead to this contest, and their backers paid the price... Florida State gets their full 100% attention this afternoon.
We all know how good Demarco Murray is, so there's really no need to tout his talent. But the one player I expect to really shine today is Landry Jones. I don't care if Bob and Mark Stoops are brothers, the FSU defense does not have the talent to stop a motivated Sooners offense. Give Mark Stoops a couple years and maybe that'll change, but not this year, and definately not today. Noles defense is vulnerable, and they'll be gearing up to stop Murray, giving Jones plenty of oppurtunities against this FSU secondary.
Looking at the line, this game was a no play for me at the opening number (Sooners opened as 10-point favorite), but with the public driving down the price to its current number (at 7 in most places), we can now afford to buy down to lay less than a touchdown. For as good as the Seminoles are, laying less than a TD with the Sooners, at home off a disappointing effort, is too good to pass up. Florida St has the offense, but their defense will be their downfall, as Jones leads his team to the win and cover this afternoon in Norman.
5 Dime - Padres
Fishy line here. Oddsmakers are clearly begging for Giants money, but it makes no sense. The public was going to bet San Francisco in this match up anyway, especially with Bumgarner versus Stauffer... So why are they trying to entice you with such an affordable price on the Giants?
Think about it. Giants have won 9 of 12, while the Padres are 3-12 over their L15 games. Bumgarner is coming off back-to-back excellent efforts, and has yielded two runs or fewer in 4 of his L5 starts. While on the flip side, Stauffer is a glorified reliever, who's happened to fill in nicely in a couple emergency situations this season. Then there's the struggling Padres offense to consider. And yet, all that being said, the Padres are slight favorites here? Red flags going up all over the place, and because of that there's no doubt the play here has to be the Padres.
So why San Diego? Well for one, Stauffer has been rock-solid when given the oppurtunity this season. He's more than capable of limiting a Giants offense that has been almost as futile as San Diego's over their last 10 games, batting a terrible .213 as a team over that span. Not only that, but after winning the first two games of this series (and now sitting tied atop the division), the Padres have to be extremely motivated here to protect their home field. Three straight losses could turn a losing streak into a tailspin.
Also, in case you didn't know, the Padres are 15-7 against lefties at Petco, averaging 4.9 runs per game in that spot... So this match up may be a little tougher for Bumgarner than most bettors think. Padres (Stauffer) over Giants (Bumgarner) Saturday.
CRAIG DAVIS
40 Dime Oklahoma State
KELSO
25 Units Minnesota Twins
15 Units Florida Marlins
10 Units Houston Astros
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* CFB GOY Southern Cal-19.5
Analysis: For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Virginia went 6-6 ATS last year; 3-9 SU. It won both SU and ATS in last weeks 34-13 victory over Richmond.
The only time these teams have met was back in 2008 and UVA was destroyed 52-7 and was outgained 558-187.
Virginia looked sharp in last weeks victory; Richmond is one thing, USC is quite another though; especially a USC unit that allowed almost 600 total yards of offense.
Suffice to say, I expect the Trojans to take out their defensive frustrations on the Cavaliers this week as they look to silence their pundits.
First year head coach Mike London knows that USC will be looking to drastically improve on the defensive side of the ball in front of the home town crowd; “They’re very talented players and have a very good team,” London said. “It’s one of those things, all of them were high school all-Americans, even the second- and third-team guys. We have to make sure we do the things necessary to give us a chance to move the ball against a very talented team."
It's interesting to note that Virginia is in fact 9-10 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons; also 0-1 ATS vs. Pac 10 conference opponents; also, Virginia is 2-7 in road openers with four straight losses by an average of 21 ppg (two were BCS teams).
On the other side of the field: USC went 3-9 ATS last year; 8-4 SU. In Week 1 it won SU on the road, 49-36 over Hawaii, but did not cover the large 20-point spread.
To say the Trojans are disappointed with giving up so many yards last week would be an understatement.
And don't think that USC or Coach Lane Kiffin will be "looking past" the Cavaliers in this spot; "They seem to be much improved," Kiffin said in his comparison to the 2008 team.
Don't forget; this is a spot that the Trojans have excelled in over the last two years; 7-5 ATS in front of the home town crowd; 2-0 ATS vs. ACC opponents; 6-3 ATS in non-conference games.
Bottom line: I was on Hawaii last week; however I believe this spot sets up perfectly for a convincing USC victory against a Virginia team that's ripe for a blowout.
Hawaii had the offense to keep up with the Trojans; the Cavaliers do not; and now they face a defense that will be looking to make a statement of its own.
The Trojans are 12-6 vs. the ACC and have won 12 straight home openers with the last six by an average of 46-7; what's even more impressive is that they are 6-0 in that span vs. non-conference/BCS teams with a 29-10 average score.