Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday September 12,2009

Maddux Sports

4 units on Tennessee -9
4 units on Southern Miss -14.5
3 units on Connecticut +4
3 units on South Carolina +7

Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack

Notre Dame at Michigan
Play: Notre Dame -3.5

Notre Dame Over MICHIGAN - The home team is 8-2 SU and the L/3 have been decided by 27 ppg. UM had 6 TO’s and trailed 21-0 just 4:00 in LY and despite losing 35-17 they had a 388-260 yd edge. In Rod’s 2nd year at WV his team went from 21.4 ppg to 30.5 ppg and with a mobile QB like Forcier (PS#16) should be potent. They beat ND 38-0 the last time here and also won 38-0 in ‘03 which is the only 2 times the favorite has covered recently (dog is 11-2 ATS) with 6 outright upsets the L9Y. ND is 2-7 ATS in their first road game. Both started the season with thrashings of solid foes as the Irish dominated Nevada leading 28-0 at the half in a 35-0 win (510-307 yd edge). Clausen hit 15-18 for 315 yd with 4 TD passes including 3 to Floyd (189 yds). The D pitched the 1st shutout in the Weis era in Tenuta’s debut as the D play caller. UM took a rough week out on WM leading 31-0 at the half while outgaining the Broncos 289-79. Forcier threw for 179 yd and 3 TD while fellow true frosh Robinson had 74 yds rushing including a 43 yd TD run. ND has the edges on both sides of the ball (#4-21 off, #11-24 D) but this should go to the wire.

Louisiana Tech at Navy
Play: Louisiana Tech +8

Louisiana Tech (+) over NAVY - First meeting. Navy has only faced one current WAC member and dropped a 48-41 (-3) decision to Hawaii in ‘99 in Honolulu. The Midshipmen are just 1-7-1 ATS (4-6 SU) in their first “true” (in Annapolis) HG. However, Navy is an outstanding 37-8 SU and 26-13 ATS vs non-BCS tms S/’03 incl a mark of 20-4 SU (9-8 ATS) in gms played in Annapolis. LY Navy went 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS vs non-BCS tms. LT played its first contest vs a service academy LY losing 14-7 (+2’) at Army gaining only 152 yds and 9 FD’s. The Bulldogs are just 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS in non-conf AG but Tech is 6-1 SU and 4-0 ATS vs non-conf, non-BCS tms S/‘05. The two are nearly even on off (Navy #86-87), def (Navy #89-90) and ST (LT #71-84). The Bulldogs are coming off a 37-13 loss to Auburn where they were outgained 556-245 and outFD’d 27-19. Navy gave Ohio St a scare before falling 31-27 after scoring a pair of TD’s in less than four minutes but the potential game-tying 2pt conversion was returned the other way. The Midshipmen were only outgained 363-342 and FD’s were even at 19 apiece. LA Tech only has FCS Nicholls St on deck while Navy travels to Pittsburgh next. LA Tech now has the scheduling edge with Navy in a BCS sandwich and disregard LT’s performance LW vs a motivated SEC squad.

Rice at Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech -26.5

TEXAS TECH Over Rice - Rice fell at home 59-24 (+28) to TT in their last meeting in ‘07. These schools played every yr from 1960-‘95 (SWC) and the HT had won 7 in a row SU prior to ‘07. Mike Leach has a big ego and will note that Rice passed for 327 ypg in ‘08 and he’ll be anxious to show that his attack is better. Rice does not have QB Clement or WR Dilliard and also lost their OC. While both teams have a young QB, TT always does well no matter who is at QB and Rice’s production LY with a veteran senior QB was 126 ypg better than when Clement was a 1st year starter. The L4Y Rice has lost to Texas and TT by 41.4 ppg. The Owls were hoping to rely on an experienced D as they broke in new QB’s, but they allowed 516 yds to UAB in a 44-24 loss LW. QB’s Shepherd and Fanuzzi split snaps and neither distinguished himself as they combined to complete 22-42 (52%) for 235 yds with a 1-1 ratio. Tech is off a 38-13 win over FCS North Dakota as new starting QB Potts completed 32-47 (68%) for 420 yds but only had a 2-3 ratio. Tech has a huge game vs Texas on deck, but Rice is just 1-9 ATS vs BCS teams the L4Y. Rice has inexperienced QB’s and a young O-line and that will be a problem in a very tough and loud stadium, so we expect the Red Raiders to cruise to an easy home win.

Miss. State at Auburn
Play: Auburn -14

AUBURN Over Mississippi St - Last year Auburn had a 315-116 yard edge but only won 3-2. Both are coming off of losing years and in ‘07 Miss St beat Auburn here in Jordan-Hare 19-14 (+13). We liked the Bulldogs here in ‘07 but this year the situation favors Auburn. The fav is 12-5 ATS in the series and Auburn is 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS in their SEC openers. Miss St has just 10 ret sts and 28 lett lost while Auburn has 15 ret sts. Aub turned in an impressive opener with two 100+ yd rushers (true frosh McCalebb 148, 6.7 and Ben Tate 117, 5.8) while QB Todd threw for 255 (65%) and a 2-0 ratio. MSU defeated Jackson St 45-7 outgaining the lower-tier IAA team 410-194 with QB’s Lee and Relf splitting snaps (comb 172 yds, 64%, 3-0 ratio). Both tms have new HC’s and much more dynamic offenses with MSU HC Mullen bringing in Florida’s off and Aub OC Malzahn bringing in Tulsa’s spread which could mean that TY’s meeting might be the opposite of LY’s defensive slugfest.

Bowling Green at Missouri
Play: Missouri -18.5

MISSOURI over Bowling Green - Missouri is 10-2 in home openers (win by 25 ppg). Pinkel has many MAC ties as he was a KSU grad, BG WR’s cch and Toledo’s HC (‘91-‘00). BG has beaten Pinkel twice: 20-13 in his 1st home game here in ‘01 and 51-28 at home in ‘02 (last meeting). Both teams are young as the Tigers are the least exp team in IA and BG has just 10 starters back and a new HC and are making their first road trip. The Falcons upset Troy 31-14 but that was inflated by a late 64 yd IR TD as they only had a 389-305 yd edge. BG QB Sheehan has avg 280 ypg (62%) in 4 games visiting BCS teams, including guiding 2 outright upsets and threw for 339 (73%) with a 2-1 ratio LW. The Tigers are off a 37-9 win (+6’) over Illinois in which they had a 442-325 yd edge and were +2 TO. Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert threw for 319 yds (76%) with a 3-0 ratio in his first start. Missouri has an FCS team on deck and will be focused here.

So. Cal at Ohio State
Play: So. Cal -6.5

Usc Over OHIO ST - 2008’s matchup between these programs was much closer than the final as OSU had the 1H yd edge but had TWO TD’s called back on pen, missed a chip shot FG and played without star RB Wells, plus phenom QB Pryor was just getting acclimated to the system. OSU is 47-1 at home vs non-conf (only loss vs #2 Tex ‘05) but may have been looking ahead somewhat vs Navy LW as they had to hold on for the 4 pt win (363-342 yd edge). OSU is 12-5 ATS in non-conf BCS gms and 9-3 SU/ATS vs the P10 but will be in unfamiliar territory as a HD here (1-2 ATS over L10Y incl loss to PSU LY). USC is 11-1 SU/ATS in their 1st RG and 8-0 ATS as a single digit fav over the L3Y, but does have true frosh QB Barkley making his first road start (233 yds, 79% LW). The Trojan D was suffocating as they recorded 16 tfl and held the Spartans to just 8 FD’s and 121 ttl yds. While both teams have just 12 ret sts and some major draft losses, the well wasn’t left dry for either program as they appear loaded again with this meeting playing a major role in the early BCS picture.

Utah at San Jose St
Play: San Jose St +14

SAN JOSE ST (+13) over Utah - Utah leads the series 4-1 SU (1-0 ATS) with the last meeting a 49-17 Utes win (-7) in ‘98. Utah currently owns the nation’s longest win streak (15) and finished last year #2 in the polls. The Utes are 5-0 SU/ATS on the road vs non-BCS/non-conf tms but all were vs Utah St. Utah is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS on the road and is on a current 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) run in AG’s. The Utes spent all but Wk 1 in the polls LY and entered TY ranked in a preseason poll for just the second time ever and the first S/’04. Utah opened the season last Thurs with a 35-17 win over Utah St, as they broke in a new starting QB. Utah has an edge on off (#67-95), def (#39-73) and ST (#57-99). SJSt was held to just 121 ttl yds (8 FD’s) in their opening 56-3 loss at USC. SJSt is 1-13 SU but 8-6 ATS against ranked tms S/’00. In the L/4 gms vs ranked tms at home the Spartans are 0-4 SU but 3-1 ATS having lost two contests in OT and one on a last-second FG. SJSt is 7-0 SU (2-0 ATS) in home openers S/’03 but 5 gms were vs FCS opponents. Utah’s QB Cain now makes his first road start and you have to believe that HC Tomey looked past a “sure loss” to USC to focus on a winnable home opener against a ranked foe.

Oregon St at UNLV
Play: UNLV +7.5

UNLV (+) over Oregon St - This is the perfect time of year for UNLV to play OSU. HC Riley has done a tremendous job with the Beavers but opp coaches have noted that they are slow starters as Riley has gone 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS on the road in the first 4 weeks of the ssn with their avg ATS loss by 15.8 ppg! They have just 10 starters back and this is their 1st road trip and true test. The Rodgers brothers combined for 4 TD’s in their win vs Port St LW, however, it was somewhat alarming for the def as they allowed 349 yds to Vikings. QB Canfield (158 yds, 73% in just 1H) will line up behind center again TW and could be playing for his starting spot with LY’s #1 QB Moevao close to returning from spg shldr surgery. The Rebels won their 4th consec home opener LW vs Sac St 38-3 as they outgained the Hornets 466-228. HC Sanford is just 12-36 SU but is 8-2 ATS as an HD and LY beat #15 Ariz St on the road! UNLV has 14 ret sts incl vet QB Clayton (213 yds, 76% LW) and an excellent set of WR’s which could continue the early Beaver slide here as the Rebels look to knock off a BCS team at home for the 2nd consec ssn (34-31 OT win vs Iowa St LY).

Matchup: Iowa at Iowa State
Play: Iowa -6.5

Iowa over IOWA ST - The home team has won 5 in a row but ISU is 7-4 SU (dog in 9) and are 10-1 ATS. LY Iowa got an 81 yd PR TD with 6:19 left to lead 17-3 (-13’) but took an intentional safety with :28 left to give the Cyclones the cover. ISU beat FCS ND St 34-17 on Thursday night in HC Rhoads’ debut to end a 10 gm losing streak. ISU rec’d a fmbl in the EZ in the 1Q and led just 24-17 in the 3Q before pulling away despite being outrushed by the Bison 210-204. Iowa blocked 2 gm winning FG att’s to survive the FCS’s #4 team, N Iowa 17-16 as they were outgained 354-329 and trailed most of the game. QB Stanzi threw for 242 yds and the RB tandem of O’Meara and Robinson had just 79 yds. Iowa has a huge D edge (#14-96) and starts a new ISU losing streak.

The Boss

500% Untouchable Play BYU

300% 3 Team Steam Roll Parlay (Boise, BYU, Kansas)

200% Dog Pound! Michigan

100% Silent Assassins (Air Force, Navy, Virginia Tech)

Vegas Sports Informer

3 Unit Play. Take Iowa St +6½ over Iowa
The Iowa Hawkeyes were lucky to come away with a win in their opener (N Iowa) and they will surely not take any other opponent for granted. Iowa St possess matchup problems for Iowa and if they can make a few big plays they could get the home win. Taking the home underdog in this game! Iowa St is 10-1 ATS against Big 10 teams. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in this series.

3 Unit Play. Take Army -1½ over Duke
Duke struggled at home against Richmond and now the Blue Devils play a much improved Army squad on the road. The Black Knights should once again lean on the run and yes the Army Black Knights could be 2-0. Army is 7-3 ATS in their 10 games.

3 Unit Play. Take So Mississippi -15 over UCF
Southern Miss are flying high following their opening win and they will now try to begin conference play in the same impressive fashion. Last year the Eagles beat UCF on the road by double-digits so Saturday night we should see the same outcome. Southern Miss will control this game from start to finish and emerge with an easy home win. Southern Miss is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.

2 Unit Play. Take Under 45½ USC at Ohio St
USC is 9-21-1 O/U in their last 31 games as a favorite. Ohio St is 1-5 O/U in their last 6 games as an underdog. Both teams will want to establish the run and both QB’s will be conservative.

5 Unit Play. Take North Texas +3 over Ohio
(Game of the Week) I’m not surprised about the turnaround by North Texas from last year and Saturday night at home we should see another solid game from the Mean Green. The Mean Green were solid against Ball State, and against a weaker MAC opponent (Ohio), North Texas should be able to grab another victory. Ohio is 9-19-1 ATS in the month of September.

Strike Point Sports Picks

6-Unit Game of the Month. Take North Carolina -4.5 over Connecticut
Here's a match-up where I feel the level of talent really sides with UNC. The Tar Heels broke out last season and have a chance to continue that under Butch Davis this year. A easy winner in their opener and they make it back-to-back impressive victories, taking out the Huskies here. Carolina's defense will be the unit that makes the most impact in this game, and along with an efficient offense, UNC comes through with a double digit win.

4-Unit Play. Take Fresno State +8.5 over Wisconsin
We're all over Pat Hill and the points here. I just feel Wisky is way too overvalued here. Fresno has proven over the years that this program is capable of winning anywhere, and in this spot I certainly think they are capable of winning outright. And getting over a touchdown on the road is too good to pass up. Play the underdog here and look for very close ball game in Madison.

3-Unit Play. Take Mississippi State +14 over Auburn
Two new SEC coaches clash here, and quite frankly the Bulldogs are not two touchdowns worse than Auburn, even away in this game. The Tigers have shown they are not an offensive juggernaut by any means, nor is MSU, so we'll see a defensive struggle that the conference is known for. Something maybe along the lines of a 17-13 score. Not really buying a one-sided victory, as linemakers are thinking. Mississippi State will hang in there and be in this game in fourth quarter. The points again come through and cash, so jump on this big number.

4-Unit Play. Take North Texas +3 over Ohio
This play isn't an overreaction to the Mean Green's upset win over Ball State last week, but more so fading an Ohio team who we're not keen on this season. North Texas, however, did show some signs that this year could be a season where a lot more success is found. The offense looked fairly solid last Thursday, and the Bobcats were pretty much unimpressive in their opener. Look for another productive game from UNT quarterback Riley Dodge, as he leads his team to another win, this time at home.

3-Unit Play. Take Washington State +2 over Hawaii
Yes, I know this could be considered playing with fire. Wazzou was so bad last year, and even this season they might not have many chances to win a game in 2009. But if there was a spot for them to turn in a nice effort and earn a 'W', it's here. Hawaii has to make the long trip up over the Pacific and up the coast to Pullman, and the Warriors aren't exactly the team from several years ago with Colt Brennan. Simply put, we have two medicore to bad football teams in this one, but I just think playing at home and looking to get on the board, the Coogs will find a way to win in front of the home crowd.

4-Unit Play. Take Minnesota -3.5 over Air Force
Opening their new home stadium and finally getting out of that dredded dome, look for an inspired effort from Minnesota here. The Gophers found a way to sqeak out a win in Syracuse to begin the season, and here they build on that with another win. Air Force's silly win last week against a true powerpuff doesn't tell me one thing about them, but I knew I was high on Minnesota this year. I pegged them to win at 'Cuse and I had this game as a victory as well. So we lay the number and feel good about the cover as well.

4-Unit Play. Take Purdue +12 over Oregon
Some may think this is a stay away game with the Ducks going back home. But Oregon is a mess after only one game. They lost their best offensive player when Blount was suspended, and when you look at this team, they do not have any big time threats on offense. Purdue has finally gotten away from that gimmick passing offense, and with some running threats in the backfield, I like their chances even more this time around. The Boilermakers had a chance but Oregon wound up scoring a win at Purdue last season, and while I feel this game could be a very competitive one, the points will be good throughout. I don't think Oregon will lead by any more than a single score throughout, and I actually give Purdue a better chance to win outright and fail to cover. We're on the road dog here.

Allen Eastman

3-Unit Play. Take North Carolina (-4.5) over Connecticut
Connecticut was just a small road favorite at Ohio last week and now they are a home underdog against North Carolina this week. The oddsmakers obviously don’t think much of this Connecticut team and I think that their beliefs are justified. They do have a strong running game but this strong North Carolina front is going to be much better than Ohio’s. North Carolina won at Rutgers last year by 32 points and beat Connecticut by 26 points at home. UNC has 15 starters and a majority of lettermen back from that team while Connecticut has just 12 starters back and is battling some injury issues. I like laying the small line on the more talented team.

2-Unit Play. Take Mississippi State (+14) over Auburn
Last year defense dominated this game and the final score was 3-2. That’s not a misprint! Defense should again control this game and as a result I think that the points will hold up. I’m not a big believer in Gene Chizik at Auburn and I haven’t seen enough to justify them being this large of a favorite in a conference game. The Bulldogs won 19-14 in their last trip to Auburn in 2007 and that means they have lost the last two meetings by just a total of five points.

3-Unit Play. Take Notre Dame (-3.5) over Michigan
Notre Dame and Michigan are both coming off routs last week but I was much more impressed with the Irish. Notre Dame has a significant experience advantage in this game. And they proved last year with their 35-17 win that the talent is clearly there. These games are very hyped up but recently they have been blowouts. The last three have been decided by an average of 27 points per game so I don’t have a problem laying just over a field goal. Experience wins out here.

4-Unit Play. Take TCU (-11) over Virginia
Virginia is coming off a loss to a Div. I-AA school last week and they were sloppy while doing it. The Cavaliers are one of the worst teams in the sorry ACC and they just don’t have the talent to compete against top teams. TCU did not play last week so they are chomping at the bit to get after the Cavs this weekend. TCU is a solid 13-6 SU against teams from BCS conferences over the last six years. They play their best against the top competition and I expect more of the same this weekend.

2-Unit Play. Take Ohio (-2.5) over North Texas
North Texas went into Ball State and stole a win last week. But Ohio is a better team than Ball State this year and they are coming off a tough loss at home to Connecticut. North Texas is just 17-30 ATS over the last four years and they are just 6-8 ATS as a home dog. They have lost 21 of 25 games since the start of 2007 so I don’t think I’ve seen enough to think that last week wasn’t just a fluke.

Dave Busk

5 Unit Pick Take Washington State (+2) over Hawaii
Hawaii head coach Greg McMakin did a nice job stepping into that role and winning seven games and taking Hawaii to a bowl game after June Jones bolted the program. Hawaii returns just two starters on the defensive side of the ball this year and has a lot of young guy’s hitting the mainland for the first time visit Washington State. As bad as Washington State was last year and they were bad I don’t think they should be a dog in this situation. Washington State lost last week vs. Stanford in week one in a neutral field game vs. Stanford 39-13, but this team will improve this year. Second year head coach Paul Wolff put this program through a rigid off season workout program and they have installed a no huddle offense, they have a combined 14 starters back from a team that lost at Hawaii last year in the last game of the year at Hawaii 24-10. I like the Pac ten team here and I think they should be the favorite. Great Value

4 Unit Pick Take Houston (+15) over Oklahoma State
These two teams scored a combined 93 points as Oklahoma State registered a 56-37 comeback win vs. Houston ironically in week two of the 2008 season. Big difference this year, Oklahoma State is coming of a big win vs. Sec power Georgia and I think they could be a little full of themselves here. That was a physical game last week and I’ am sure it took a toll on the Cowboys. They now have to deal with standout Houston quarterback Case Keenum who rip apart Okie State and has thrown over 300 yards in 14 of his last 15 starts. I think it will be awful hard for the favorite to cover this how number in what should be another shootout.

2 Unit Pick Take Over (45.5) Iowa at Iowa State
The last two games of this rivalry have been low scoring with a 17 -5 Iowa in 2008 and 15-13 Iowa State win in 2007. I think this year will play out much different with Iowa State improving their power on that side of the ball with Florida Transfer Bo Williams and returning quarterback Austen Arnaud with the addition of new offensive coordinator Tom Hearn who set records with the Rice offense the last two years and installing the spread offense. Iowa offensive improved by fifty yards a game in 2008 from 2007 and have quarterback Ricky Stanza back along with three offensive lineman from 2008. Last year total closed at 48 in that low scoring game and now the odds maker has made adjustment but I believe it is the wrong adjustment, I made this total 51 by my numbers and I’ am playing that value.

1 Unit Pick Take Over (38) South Carolina at Georgia
First Georgia quarterback Joe Cox is going to play and if he didn’t I would still be on the over here. This total is all about precipitation after South Carolina 7-3 win at North Carolina State and Georgia holding a powerful Oklahoma State offense to 24 points. This is just two low for two offensive minded coaches and while this is not a big play on the weekend it is still a play.

Joe Wiz

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Iowa

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1-Unit Notre Dame -3

Dr. Bob

It's rare that I don't have any Best Bets, but this is one of those weeks. There were a lot of games that were close to being Best Bets, but I didn't want to force the action as there will be plenty of Best Bets over the course of the season. I do have 8 Strong Opinions.

Strong Opinion - Iowa State (+6 1/2) Strong Opinion at +6 or more.
Strong Opinion - Army (pk/-1) Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less.
Strong Opinion - Tulane (+17 1/2) Strong Opinion at +17 or more.
Strong Opinion - Wyoming (+33) Strong Opinion at +32 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +35 or more.
Strong Opinion - Michigan (+3) Strong Opinion at +3 or more.
Strong Opinion - RBoston College (-20 1/2) Strong Opinion at -21 or less.

Strong Opinion
Clemson 24 GEORGIA TECH (-5.0) 23

Redshirt freshman quarterback Kyle Parker makes his first road start after playing pretty well last week in his home debut, a 37-14 win over Middle Tennessee State. Parker got plenty of help from great special teams play, but the Tigers starting offense out-gained their Blue Raiders' counterparts 5.8 yards per play to 3.9 yppl even with an injured RB C.J. Spiller getting just 4 carries due to a tweaked hamstring (he's practicing and listed as probable this week). Clemson looks just average offensively this season even with Spiller, but the Tigers have a very good defense that I rate at 1.0 yppl better than an average team and their special teams continue to be among the best in the nation. Georgia Tech had a pretty easy time against Jacksonville State, as the starters jumped out to a 31-7 half time lead before coasting to a 37-17 win. Jonathan Dwyer has 95 yards on just 7 carries before taking an early seat on the bench, but Clemson's defense will provide a huge test for the Yellow Jackets' option attack given how strong the Tigers are on the defensive front. My ratings favor Georgia Tech by just 3 points and Clemson applies to a 41-8-2 ATS game 2 situation. I'll consider Clemson a Strong Opinion at +4 or more based on the situation.

Strong Opinion
TOLEDO 30 Colorado (-4.0) 28

Both of these teams were beaten pretty soundly last week, as the Rockets lost on the road 31-52 at Purdue while Colorado was upset 17-23 by Colorado State as a 10 1/2 point home favorite in a game that really wasn't that close (the Buffs were out-gained 4.1 yards per play to 6.0 yppl). Colorado looks as dismal on offense this season as they were last year (0.9 yppl worse than average) and the Buffaloes' rebuilt defense (4 returning starters) was exploited with numerous big plays by the Rams, who took advantage of two young Colorado safeties to average 20.8 yards per completion. Toledo's 4th year starting quarterback Aaron Opelt should have pretty good passing stats against that Buffs secondary after throwing for 423 yards at a solid 6.3 yards per pass play on 67 pass plays against a good Purdue secondary last week. The absence of last year's leading rusher Morgan Williams (suspended for 2 games) isn't that big of a deal considering that Toledo threw the ball nearly 80% of the time last week and will probably do so again tonight. Toledo's defense was a huge problem, allowing 535 yards at 8.0 yppl to the Boilermakers, so it appears that the Rockets are having a tough time grasping the new defensive scheme. However, Colorado doesn't appear to be able to fully take advantage of that defense like Purdue did last week. My ratings favor Colorado by 2 points and the Buffaloes apply to a negative 35-83-7 ATS scheduling situation. Toledo, meanwhile, tends to play much better at home than they do on the road, as the Rockets are 38-21 ATS all time at home. I'll consider Toledo a Strong Opinion at +3 or more.

Strong Opinion
IOWA ST. 26 Iowa (-6.5) 27

Iowa nearly escaped with a 17-16 win over Northern Iowa last week and this game could be another tough one for the Hawkeyes. Northern Iowa is a good FCS team that rates at just a few points worse than an average FBS team but Iowa played a slightly below average team even at 5.1 yards per play apiece on their home field. The Hawkeyes were down two starting offensive lineman last week and the makeshift line averaged just 4.6 yards per rushing play and allowed 4 sacks. One of the Hawkeyes' offensive linemen returns from suspension this week, so the line play should be better. Even so, Iowa is without starting RB Jewell Hampton for the season and Robinson and O'Meara showed nothing last week (just 79 combined yards on 24 carries) that suggests Iowa will be able to run the ball successfully this season. The Hawkeyes should run the ball at a pretty good clip today against a Cyclones' defense that allowed North Dakota State to run for 232 yards at 6.8 yards per rushing play and quarterback Ricky Stanzi should post good passing numbers as long as the Cyclones' new found pass rush (4 sacks last week against a decent N. Dakota State team) takes advantage of Iowa's line. Iowa State's Austin Arnaud is a good dual threat quarterback and the Cyclones do have a good offense this season, but Iowa's defense should play better than it did last week. My ratings actually favor Iowa by 8 points, which is what the line opened at. The reason for taking Iowa State is a number of good situations, including a negative 35-83-7 ATS game 2 situation applying to Iowa and a 56-15 ATS early season indicator that favors Iowa State. The technical analysis is enough to make Iowa State a Strong Opinion at +6 or more.

Strong Opinion
ARMY (pk/-1) 23 Duke 17

Army was an underrated team heading into last week's game with Eastern Michigan, but a 27-14 upset win with a 6.0 yards per play to 3.8 yppl advantage has people taking notice. Army's new option offense ran for 317 yards at 7.0 yards per rushing play against a horrible Eastern Michigan defense, but doing that against a good Duke run defense will be a tougher task today. Duke lost 16-24 at home to FCS team Richmond, but Richmond has a ton of talent returning from a team that was the FCS champion last season and last year's team was about 5 1/2 points better than an average FBS team, so that was not really an upset (Duke was favored by just 2 points at home). Duke did, however, out-gain Richmond 5.3 yppl to 4.8 yppl, which is actually pretty impressive. Army's defense was solid last year when LB Stephen Anderson played (he didn't start until game 4) and the Cadets' defense looked good last week, so Duke should also have some trouble moving the ball - although experienced quarterback Thaddeus Lewis had a pretty good game (6.1 yards per pass play) against a very good Richmond defense that would rate at 0.6 yppl better than an average FBS defense. My ratings favor Army by 2 points but and the Black Knights apply to a very good 56-15 ATS early season indicator while Duke applies to a negative 60-124-1 ATS situation. My only concern is the match-up, as Army's offense could stall if Duke's good run defense can stop the run, as Army quarterback Trent Steelman accounted for -4 yards on 7 pass plays last week. I'll consider Army a Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less based on the technical analysis, but I'll pass on making this game a Best Bet due to the uncertainty of how well Army's rushing attack will perform against a good run defense.

Strong Opinion
BOSTON COLLEGE (-20.5) 33 Kent State 7

Boston College opened the Frank Spaziani era with a 54-0 win over Northeastern last week and that victory is impressive even after accounting for the fact that their opponent is 25 points worse than an average Division 1A (FBS) team. Kent, meanwhile, wasn't so impressive in a 19-0 win over lowly Coastal Carolina, who is about 21 points worse than an average FBS team. Kent's defense played well, but the Flashes have struggled defending the run against better competition in recent years and Boston College should be able to run the ball very well in this game while their quarterbacks post decent numbers in support of the rushing attack. Kent's offense averaged just 4.7 yards per play last week against a bad Coastal Carolina defense and they will likely struggle against what appears to be another good Boston College defense that gave up just 2.5 yppl to a Northeastern offense that would average 4.1 yppl on the road against an average FBS team. Boston College does have some injury problems on the defensive side of the ball, but the backups played well last week and are certainly more talented than Kent's offensive personnel. Eugene Jarvis is a good back, but he appears to be Kent's only weapon and BC's tradition of good run defense should continue this year under their new leadership. My ratings favor BC by 21 1/2 points, so the line is pretty fair, but the Eagles apply to a very good 101-32 ATS momentum situation and Kent is 0-8 ATS following their last 8 victories. I'll consider Boston College a Strong Opinion at -21 or less.

Strong Opinion
MICHIGAN 26 Notre Dame (-3.0) 23

Both of these teams were impressive in week 1 blowouts against decent competition and this will be a true test for each squad. Notre Dame came into the season with more hype and they were more impressive last week in beating Nevada 35-0 than Michigan was in beating Western Michigan 31-7, but the team that looks the best rarely gets the money in this game. In fact, the underdog in this game is 12-8-1 straight up and 18-3 ATS since 1982, including Notre Dame's 35-17 win as a 2 point home dog last year. That pushed the mark of home underdogs in this series to 7-0 ATS and I see that pattern continuing. My updated ratings favor Notre Dame by 3 points, which is right on the number, but aside from the series trend the Wolverines apply to a very good 77-24-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation and a 56-15 ATS early season indicator. The technical analysis is strongly in favor of Michigan in this game and I'll consider Michigan a Strong Opinion as an underdog of 3 points or more.

Strong Opinion
TULANE 23 BYU (-17.5) 35

If ever there were a letdown game this is it. BYU opened the season by knocking Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford out of the game and upsetting the #3 ranked Sooners 14-13 as a 22 1/2 point dog. BYU was playing the Sooners even when Bradford was in the game and the Cougars out-gained Oklahoma 5.4 yards per play to 4.6 yppl (5.3 yppl with Bradford stats only), so their win was no fluke. In fact, it should have been easier than a 1 point win given how easily Cougars' quarterback Max Hall dissected the Sooners' defense for 26 of 38 passing for 329 yards. That win, however, sets up BYU in a very negative 0-15 ATS subset of a 5-30 ATS game 2 letdown situation and Tulane wasn't that bad last week against an explosive Tulsa team. Tulane didn't cover as a 14 point dog in their 13-37 loss, but being out-gained by just 1.2 yppl (5.5 yppl to 6.7 yppl) was exactly what I expected in that game. It was the Tulane special teams that cost them about 10 points (a 66 yard punt return TD by Tulsa and about 3 points worth of field position). Tulane's special teams aren't likely to be quite as bad and star running back Andre Anderson should perform better this week after averaging just 2.6 ypr last week after being weakened by the flu. In fact, 23 of Tulane's players were hit with the flu in late August and the entire team should have more energy for this game. New Tulane quarterback Joe Kemp is a good passer (16 for 26 for 278 yard) that can take advantage of a BYU team that is probably spending more time this week taking pats on the back than studying film on how to beat the Green Wave. BYU will get their points, but Tulane has a good enough offense to compete. My ratings favor the Cougars by 18 points - so the line is fair - I'll consider Tulane a Strong Opinion at +17 points or more based on the strong situation. I'd take Tulane in a 2-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more.

Strong Opinion
WYOMING 13 Texas (-33.0) 41

Wyoming is still a bad offensive team, but the Cowboys are better than average defensively and should slow down the Texas offense enough to stay within a huge number at home. Wyoming's defense gave up just 5.0 yards per play last season (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and I rate the Cowboys' stop unit even better this season with 8 starters returning, including all 4 defensive linemen and their best 3 defensive backs. Wyoming allowed just 27.8 points per game in 2008 despite a horrible offense and a -22 in turnover margin that constantly put them in bad field position. That unit was tested last week by a very good Weber State attack that averaged 455 yards at 6.9 yppl last season and would have averaged 6.4 yppl against an average FBS defense. All of Weber's star offensive players are back from that team and Wyoming held them to 5.7 yppl and picked off 5 passes in last week's 29-22 victory. My math has that Wyoming defense limiting Texas to just 6.0 yppl in this game, so it will be a challenge for the Longhorns to score enough points to cover such a huge number even if Wyoming's offense struggles as expected (I project just 4.0 yppl for the Cowboys). Wyoming isn't likely to get more than 1 or 2 scoring opportunities against the Longhorns' #1 defense, but UL Monroe marched down the field twice in the 4th quarter last week against Texas subs to cover a big spread and Wyoming has a pretty good chance to cover in this game with just one touchdown. My ratings favor Texas by just 28 points and the Longhorns will be dealing with high altitude and could be caught looking ahead to their big revenge game with Texas Tech next week. Wyoming has 16 returning starters and teams with 16 or more returning starters are a solid 91-52-4 ATS as home underdogs in the first 3 games of the season over the years, including Washington's spread win against LSU last week. I'll consider Wyoming a Strong Opinion at +32 points or more and I'd make the Cowboys a 2-Star Best Bet at +35 or more.

LT Profits

5 units GOW UCONN +4

3 units USC -6.5

2 units Air Force +3

Pointwise Phone Service

4* Auburn, Air Force

3* East Carolina, North Texas, South Carolina,Vandy,
Central Michigan, Southern Miss

2* Stanford, UNLV, South Florida

Teddy Covers

20* Big Ticket: Auburn -14
East Carolina +6.5
Louisiana Tech +7.5
Air Force +3
Southern Miss -14.5
North Texas +2.5

Apache

22 N.C.
27 E.C.U.
14 V.T.
22 Northwestern
17 Duke
22 Fresno St
14 S Carolina
9 Tulane
12 Pitt
17 T.C.U.
18 Air Force over
22 Missouri over
12 S Miss
20 Houston over
18 Tulsa
27 San Jose St
17 Alabama
24 Memphis