Blade,
I just wanted to take the time to say thanks...everything you do is greatly appreciated...Halfbets (SSG) has been killing it for me!!
Cajun-Sports
SMU vs. UAB
Pick:UAB -11.
Legion Field in Birmingham will be the site of today’s clash between the host University of Alabama-Birmingham Blazers and the visiting Mustangs from Southern Methodist University. Both teams enter today’s game off straight up wins in their openers with UAB rolling past Rice 44 to 24 and SMU pulled out a victory over Stephen F. Austin 31 to 23 but they actually trailed 23 to 14 at the start of the fourth quarter and had to rally to get the win. We used UAB last week in our Gator Report Newsletter as our Conference USA Game of the Week and they provided readers with an easy win.
This could appear to be a letdown situation for the Blazers coming off such a big conference win but this is also a conference game and with UAB’s struggles in years past we don’t expect them to take anything for granted. The team is well aware of what a win here today means to them as far as their conference standings and their confidence overall.
UAB racked up 516 yards of total offense on 9.4 yards per play against Rice last week; the return of eleven offensive starters from a year ago was blatantly obvious for the Blazers. They are led by senior QB Joe Webb who threw for 221 yards and rushed for another 194 in the win over the Owls last week including four touchdowns, two through the air and two on the ground.
The key to this game will be UAB’s offense against the SMU defense or lack thereof. The Mustangs are coming off back-to-back 1-11 SU seasons and a defense that allowed 39.8 points per game and 38.2 points per game respectively. SMU is 5-30 ATS when they allow 500 or more total yards and this Blazers team is very capable of putting 500 on the Mustangs in this contest. SMU is 6-38 ATS when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play and 2-43 ATS when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards per play since 1992.
The Mustangs have also been perfect albeit negative in their last six road openers losing all six both straight up and against the spread with each loss coming by seventeen or more points. SMU failed to cover their last four to end the 2008 season and are 1-4 ATS their last 5 when installed as a road underdog. Their HC June Jones is now 4-12 ATS as a road underdog dating to when he was the head man at Hawaii. The Mustangs are 2-10 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season, 9-23 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game and 3-12 ATS after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992. UAB has not only improved their overall play they are also 7-2 ATS their last 9 games overall.
Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Blazers win by 17.7 points in this game and we also have a technical set with teams in this situation that is a perfect 13-0 ATS. The PPR (Player Performance Ratings) Index also signals another big win for UAB with a 16.3 point advantage over the Mustangs.
For a program like UAB every game holds significance and there can be no letdowns so we expect this Blazers team to rise to the occasion against SMU. Lay the chalk with the host as UAB rolls another conference opponent on Saturday afternoon at Legion Field in Birmingham.
Graded Selection: 5* UAB Blazers 40 SMU Mustangs 21
Central Florida vs. So Mississippi
Pick: So Mississippi -14.5
Southern Miss will play host to the Central Florida Golden Knights on Saturday evening in Hattiesburg Mississippi. Each team won their opener last week as UCF got a scare from Samford winning 28 to 24 while Southern Miss rolled past Alcorn State 52 to 0.
UCF had the worst offense in the nation last season averaging only 16.6 points per game and 230 yards of total offense. From their performance against Samford last week we see very little improvement as they had 282 yards of offense averaging 4.3 yards per play versus a weak Samford stop unit. They rushed for 125 yards on 3 yards per carry and their passing game went 13 of 24 for 157 yards. Southern Miss is 8-0 ATS when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards the last 3 seasons and 32-16 ATS when they allow less than 4 total yards per play since 1992.
Southern Miss on the other hand returns ten offensive starters from last season’s bowl winning team led by QB Austin Davis who threw for over 3,000 yards last season as a freshman. He had 23 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions behind a solid offensive front which returns all starters with the exception of tight end Shawn Nelson. The running duties will once again be left up to Damion Fletcher who rushed for more than 1300 yards on 6.0 yards per carry last season. The Golden Eagles had a huge edge in yardage when playing at home, 479 to 339 of total offense. The Golden Eagles are 20-2 ATS when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards per play and 15-0 ATS when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards since 1992.
Southern Miss returns nine defensive starters from the 2008 campaign and held last week’s opponent to 62 yards rushing on 2.3 yards per carry and 109 yards passing for 4.4 yards per pass attempt. We realize that came against Alcorn State but our Math Model projects numbers very similar to these with the UCF offense versus the Southern Miss defense.
Last season these two met in Orlando and UCF was held to 10 first downs and a total of 208 yards in a 17 to 6 home loss. The score doesn’t actually do this game justice as Southern Miss dominated the game running eighty-eight plays to only forty-nine by the host. Southern Miss has shown improvement while we expect much of the same from UCF even though they are playing with revenge. The revenge factor also triggers one of our CFB Systems that says; In games 1-2, play AGAINST a non-Thursday road underdog of more than 3 points seeking revenge for a SU loss of less than 20 points & ATS loss of 2+ points in the previous matchup from Game 8 on last season vs. an opponent not playing with a rest advantage. These underdogs are 0-11 ATS losing by an average of 14.7 points per game against the number.
With significant advantages on both sides of the ball and strong technical support we will back the host here as the Golden Eagles roll past an overmatched Golden Knights team on Saturday night in southern Mississippi.
Graded Selection: 4* Southern Mississippi 37 Central Florida 9
Fresno State vs. Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin -8
The Wisconsin Badgers welcome the Fresno State Bulldogs to Camp Randall Stadium in Madison Wisconsin on Saturday afternoon. Both teams enter off opening day wins last week with Fresno defeating UC-Davis 51 to 0 and the Badgers defeated Northern Illinois 28 to 20.
Wisconsin raced out to a 28 to 6 advantage over Northern Illinois before two late scores made the game appear closer than it really was. Badgers HC Bielema will make sure his troops remember that and stay completely focused on the job at hand after a near catastrophe last week. They only have Wofford on deck while Fresno State has a huge game next Friday when they face Boise State a mere six days away.
Fresno State will be stepping way up in class when they face the Badgers and they do not appear to know who their starting QB is going to be this year. Bulldogs HC Hill said he will probably have to use these first two games of the season as exhibition contests to help determine who will lead this Bulldogs offense. Not good news for Bulldog backers as they enter a very hostile environment at Camp Randall.
Fresno State was known for being a non-conference giant-killer in years past but they are on a run of 10-29-1 ATS since 2005, 6-10 ATS in the once profitable underdog role and currently 1-11 ATS their last 12 games overall. The Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS after playing a non-conference game the last 3 seasons and 24-41 ATS in road games after playing a game at home. Wisconsin is 42-23 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders and 39-23 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. The Badgers are also 6-3 ATS at home when facing non-conference opponents their last 9.
Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index favors the Badgers in this contest by 11.9 points and our PPR (Player Performance Ratings) Index also favors Wisconsin in this game by 12.5 points with whoever gets the call at QB for Fresno State.
The fact that the Bulldogs have a huge meeting with Boise State next week triggers one of our CFB Systems and it says; In games 1-9, play AGAINST a non-conference underdog before a home against Boise St versus an opponent not off a non-conference road underdog SU & ATS loss. These underdogs are a perfect 0-7 ATS and average losing to the number by 15.3 points per game.
With many unanswered questions for the Bulldogs and the Badgers playing a close non-conference game last week we expect Wisconsin to be ready and motivated here as they roll past a Bulldogs team that is already looking ahead to their next opponent. Badgers play four full quarters this week and cash the ticket for us on Saturday at Camp Randall.
Graded Selection: 4* Wisconsin Badgers 37 Fresno State Bulldogs 15
Hey Blade,
Long time no talk! Good to see your posts again. I couldn't do well without you. It's a shame these degenerates are ruining a good thing for the rest of us. I hope there's a way to weed them out before we lose this great service you provide! Thanks again for the hard work!
Guitar0408 (Pete)
Teddy Covers
Texas
SMU
North Texas
GERRY ANDINO
100* Buffalo +10.5 (LOCK CLUB)
100* Syracuse +29 (LOCK CLUB)
10* TCU under 41.5
10* South Carolina +7
10* LSU -14.5
10* Atlanta +100
FRANK "BIG MONEY" SANTILLI
100* TCU -11
100* Nebraska -21
75* BYU @ Tulane UNDER 52.5
75* South Carolina @ Georgia UNDER 40
75* Air Force +3
75* Toronto @ Detroit UNDER 8.5
FRED CALLAHAN
20* Navy under 51.5
15* Purdue +12.5
15* SMU under 60
15* Missouri -20
Doc's Sports
Baseball
5-Unit Play Take Cleveland Indians -145 over Kansas City Royals
3-Unit Play Take New York Mets +180 over Philadelphia Phillies
3-Unit Play Take San Francisco Giants -115 over Los Angeles Dodgers
Dave Malinsky
North Carolina
Auburn
Georgia
Tennessee
Kent St
Vanderbilt
Ohio St
Brandon Lovell
Double Your Wager Game of the Year
20* Duke -1
PPP
5% Army
5% So Mississippi
4% East Carolina
Tom Stryker
Tennessee
East Carolina
Executive
300 Conn
250 Ind
250 Minn
250 Ohio U
Big Money - Utah
Blazer 4-E Car, C Mich, 3-Duke, Stan, SMU, W Mich
Carolina Sports 5- S Miss, 4-ND, 3-E Car, W Mich, UNLV
Gameday 3-Aub, S Miss, 2-Io St, Kent St, S Jose St
Inside Info 3- E Car, 2-Vandy
Joe D 25- N Dame, 20-Wash, S Jose St, 15-WF, Duke
Chris Jordan
200♦ STANFORD CARDINAL - Not sure how much I'm geared toward playing on Stanford, or against the Demon Deacons. Most certainly, it's a little bit of both. I like this redshirt freshman quarterback for Stanford, Andrew Luck, who was eerily effective in his first college start, throwing for 193 yards and a touchdown last week at Washington State.
Now, first thing I might think is this his first game outside the Pacific Time Zone against a rugged ACC team; but Wake Forest's defense returns only one starter in its back seven, and I'm not so sure the rather soft defensive line can pressure Luck. With enough time on the majority of his drives, this kid will pick apart the Demon Deacons' inexperienced secondary. He has plenty of talent to turn to, as his skill-position players are all upperclassmen.
Honestly, the Cardinal could make it to its first bowl game since the 2001 season, and this is a game that would weigh heavy in certain bowl committee members' eyes. I'm grabbing the field goal or then some, and looking for the Cardinal to aim for the outright win.
200♦ EAST CAROLINA PIRATES - Revenge, I know. But you know what, East Carolina is going to do everything possible to not let the Mountaineers use that revenge factor from last season's 24-3 thumping that ended WVU's 14-game non-conference win streak.
ECU, the defending Conference USA champion, beat Appalachian State, 29-24, last week and has nine starters back on offense and eight on defense from that team that stymied West Virginia. And all due respect, while the Pirates eked out their win over Appy State - which is always a tough team in non-conference play - the Mountaineers let Liberty put 20 points on the board last week in a 33-20 win.
The Pirates are going to bring the heat against a newly built offensive line and pressure Jarrett Brown the entire game. And in case you were unaware, that loss to East Carolina a year ago, West Virginia allowed the Pirates to tackle them 11 times for a loss for minus-32 yards. I see a lot of that taking place all over again. Add in a bit of lookahead with a trip to Auburn on deck for the Mounties, and it's easy to see why I like the Pirates to pull off another upset.
200♦ UNDER Tcu/Virginia - Don't be surprised to see a 13-10 ball game here. Who wins? I don't know, and that don't mean to take th underdog. But the fact is Virginia is as defensively sound as the Horned Frogs. I was quite surprised by the point spread the oddsmakers made on this one.
So why not take the Cavaliers? Well, there's gotta be a reason TCU is laying the price it's laying, right? I'd much rather count on a defensive tussle, as the Cavs boast the best secondary during Al Groh's tenure at Virginia, and have an experienced and talented front line to apply the pressure. The only question mark, admittedly, will be the new faces at linebacker in this 3-4 front. But once this game gets physical, the linebacking crew will catch on quickly.
As for Texas Christian, we're talking about the reigning No. 1 stop unit in the nation. And while just about everyone else started last week, the aggressive Horned Frogs start their season tonight. The 16th-ranked Frogs should be able to take advantage of a Virginia offense that struggled against William & Mary's defense in its opener. Gary Patterson's infamous 4-2-5 defensive alignment uses three safeties, and shuts down spread offenses. It allows him to utilize speed in the secondary, and get this, he still has defensive end Jerry Hughes putting O-Lines on blast; the 6-foot-3, 255 pound senior led the nation in sacks last season with 15. Stay away from the side in this one, it comes down to defense.
BEN BURNS
Shocker
I'm taking the points with UTEP.
I believe that the Week 1 results have caused this line to be a little higher than it should be, creating value with the home underdog Miners. Kansas destroyed Northern Colorado. Utep lost by six vs. Buffalo. Despite the setback, there were a few bright spots. The Miners posted 139 rushing yards on a respectable 4.8 yards per attempt. Donald Buckram had 108 of those yards, on 14 carries. The defense was also respectable, holding the Bulls to just 309 total yards. (Utep had 372) QB Trevor Vittatoe didn't have a great game in the opener, going 27-of-45 for 233 yards and 0 TDs. Keep in mind that he threw for 3,274 yards and 33 scores in 2008 though. The Miners are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range. Looking back further and we find them at 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were home underdogs in the +10.5 to +14 range. I expect them to give the Jayhawks to improve on those numbers, giving Kansas a much tougher game than most are expecting. 7*
ATS LOCK CLUB anybody??? I do good with their picks....thxs
ATS LOCK CLUB anybody??? I do good with their picks....thxs
Please stop with the requests, if it is around I will post it and if you want it that bad buy it and share.
MIKE LINEBACK
4* North Carolina Tar Heels -4.5
4* South Carolina/Georgia Bulldogs UNDER 40
4* LA Dodgers/SF Giants UNDER 8
Anthony Redd
15 Dime Fresno State
15 Dime Houston
15 Dime Washington State
BIG AL
Roadkill - Michigan
BRAND X
UCONN +5
Central Michigan +15
Fresno +8.5
Carloina Sports
5* GOM Southern Miss
My bad sorry about that, didn't mean to cause any trouble....thxs for letting me know....keep up the good work..Blade
nothing from brandon lang?
just wondering if anyone got his plays today
ATS Lock
8 UTEP
8 UNLV
7 AUB
2 rr parlay
6 Vandy
5 UNC
Dave Cokin
20* Missouri
20* S. Mississippi
Pure Lock
UCLA
My bad sorry about that, didn't mean to cause any trouble....thxs for letting me know....keep up the good work..Blade
Your not causing trouble it's just I and many others get tired of seeing request after request when everyone knows if it's out there it will be posted. Everyone likes to see a clean thread and we like to keep it that way here.