RAS
1 Unit Ark. St -3
1 Unit UCF -7
1 Unit S. Miss -4
Bryan Leonard
Extreme Blowout
East Carolina at Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech
While this line has slowly moved up we still find solid value on the motivated favorite. East Carolina has been a huge surprise thus far under first year coach Ruffin McNeill. They returned just eight starters from a team that posted a 9-5 record a season ago. That is the lowest amount of returning starters in the FBS. They also lost a whopping 30 lettermen to graduation which points out just how young this team is. In the opening week they continued their dominance over Tulsa with a nationally televised 51-49 victory. Last week they beat up on one of the worst FBS squads in the country in a 49-27 victory over Memphis. But now they go on the road with all those young players for the very first time as they take on a frustrated Virginia Tech squad.
Virginia Tech lost a heartbreaker in week one as Boise State posted a 33-30 comeback victory in a Monday nationally televised affair. Last week after limited practices the Hokies were shocked at home by a very good FCS squad in James Madison. Now they must regroup and beat an East Carolina team that has had their number as of late. The Hokies are 8-5-1 ATS off a straight up loss. They are also 63-11 straight up the past 11 years in this building. While the Pirates have cashed with a 2-0-1 spread mark the last three seasons in this series, the circumstances are totally different this time around.
As opposed to the last two seasons when East Carolina returned 16 starters including the quarterback this is a very young inexperienced squad. In those three meetings the game meant much more to the Pirates who were taking on a national power. In 2007 Virginia Tech had a huge game at LSU on deck. In 2008 the Hokies were returning just 10 starters and struggled in the opening season loss to the Pirates. Last year Virginia Tech faced East Carolina right in the middle of ACC play after dropping back to back games against Georgia Tech and North Carolina. Now it's the Hokies who have all the motivation as the next two games are on the road at Boston College and NC State.
Every team that has lost to an FCS squad the previous week won and covered the following week except for Mississippi who decided to take a knee at the Tulane ten yard line instead of scoring a spread covering touchdown. Don't expect the Hokies to be so gracious.
SEC Game of the Month!
Vanderbilt at Mississippi
Play: Vanderbilt
The Commodores enter this game on a ten game losing streak and have lost former coach Bobby Johnson to retirement. But even though on paper this looks like a team to avoid we're willing to step in and take Vanderbilt in their best role. The Commodores are often overlooked when they take to the road but in fact they are an excellent money maker. They are 15-4-1 as a conference road underdog and the wise guys in Vegas agree as steady money has shown on Vanderbilt this week. Make no doubt about it this team is playing with a patchwork offensive line that struggled last week against the terrific athletes of LSU, but Mississippi hasn't shown the ability to put pressure on the quarterback. We look for Vandy to be able to move the ball this week and put up enough points to keep this game interesting. After all the Commodores have held their own in this series as of late cashing to the tune of 8-2-1 against the Rebels.
Mississippi struggled to run the football last week against an inferior Tulane team and Houston Nutt has already said they were going to feature the running game here. More running plays mean more time off the clock which shortens the game and is an edge for the underdog. It was telling that last week every team who lost to an FCS school the previous week went out and easily covered the posted number, that is except for these Rebels. They were a 20 1/2 point favorite over the Green Wave and yet could only win by a 27-13 mark. Last year Ole Miss beat Vanderbilt by 16 points as a 10 point home favorite. That has been by far the most lopsided Mississippi win in recent history. Before than win the Commodores had won 3 of the prior 4 meetings.
With Vanderbilt having a bye on deck and Ole Miss hosting an always dangerous Fresno State team Vanderbilt should be more focused here. They surely don't want to enter the break with an 11 game losing streak hanging over their heads.
Red Alert Shocker
Houston at UCLA
Play: Houston
The current line is in the range of Houston -3 because of the uncertainty of Houston quarterback Case Keenum who was injured last week in a 54-24 win over UTEP. But regardless of his return we want to back a Cougars squad that is multi-dimensional offensively. Backup quarterback Cotton Turner has already proven himself at this level completing a whopping 75% of his passes last year without throwing an interception. That's a higher completion percentage that Keenan last season. The Houston running game is dynamic and the Cougars have already shown their ability to step up their play when facing BCS caliber competition on the road. Last year they shocked #5 Oklahoma State 45-35 and won at Mississippi State 31-24. Those two teams are head and shoulders better than this years UCLA squad.
How bad have things gotten for the Bruins in Rick Neuheisel's third year? He actually apologized to the fans after last week's humiliating 35-0 home loss to Stanford. After losing 31-22 at Kansas State opening week the Bruins have now posted a 3-8 record their last 11 regular season games. None of those eight losses came by less than 7 points. In fact, UCLA has now lost outright eight straight games in which they were installed in the underdog role. The offense hasn't scored more than 28 points against any team other than San Diego State and Temple in the last 23 games. In fact, you would have to go back 36 games to find this team producing more than 33 points in any game. The reason we bring that up is that Houston averaged more than that many points over the past four seasons.
The Cougars have now gone eight straight road contests in which they scored 31 points or better. That includes 32 at East Carolina, 32 at Central Florida, 45 at Oklahoma State and 41 once again at East Carolina in 2009. Each of those clubs went to play in the postseason. UCLA permitted just 21.2 ppg a year ago, a 7.8 ppg improvement on the 2008 season. After two games they have allowed 31 and 35 points to Kansas State and Stanford. Last year they held those two squads to a combined 33 points. The offense isn't any better than a season ago and the defense has regressed. There is simply no way UCLA can exchange scores with this Houston offense regardless of who gets the call behind center for the Cougars. Grab this number now because if it's announced that Keenum is back the line will shoot even higher.
David Malinsky
4* TROY over UAB
We do not believe that marketplace has the proper read as to just how bad things are at U.A.B. right now, and also that there is next to no home field advantage for this matchup. So the chance to play the far superior program in this short of a price range can not be passed up.
We wrote an NCAA “Verities & Balderdash” column about Joe Webb LY, and how the SR Blazer QB might have been worth more to his team than any other player in the nation. So the question became how bare the cupboard would be without him, and the answers are ugly – in opening 0-2 SU and ATS, we can not find a strength in Neil Callaway’s team. What look like respectable rushing numbers in the opener were not that – Florida Atlantic was not prepared to see QB David Isabelle running so much, and he picked up 214 yards on 22 carries in that game. That is nearly half of the entire rushing output for the young season, with no individual RB even reaching 20 carries yet. When S.M.U. was prepared for Isabelle’s running last week the entire offense was shut down – U.A.B. could not muster a first down in the first 27 minutes of game action, and had only 95 yards of total offense at the half. Finishing with seven points, 11 first downs and 261 yards is truly sad against that class of defense. But when you show little ability to either run or pass (Isabelle is under 50 percent completions through two games, netting only 5.5 yards per attempt with a pair of INT’s), even a weak defense can rise up. Through two games they have already had a dozen 3-and-outs, and also three other possessions in which they turned the ball over in five plays or fewer.
The most alarming part of the S.M.U. defeat was not the offense, however. It was a defensive front that allowed a finesse Mustang attack to bully them right at the point of attack, running for 247 yards on 37 attempts, for an ugly 6.7 per try. Note that these were not option plays or tricky designs, but mostly plunges between the tackles, keyed by Zach Line, who ran for 122 yards at 7.6, with a pair of TD’s. So if Callaway could only go 11-25 in this first three seasons with the dynamic talent of Webb around, we see in these opening results just how decrepit this program is. With only five SR starters on this week’s two-deep chart there is a dearth of leadership, but the younger players seeing action do not seem all that talented anyway.
Troy shows talent. The Trojans are also young, but we saw much of that potential at Oklahoma State on Saturday night, when they carried a 27-20 halftime lead, but saw the upset get away with four second-half turnovers, two of them inside the Cowboy 10-yard line. They also benefitted from some bounces in that game, but overall it was a solid performance in a hostile environment. That particularly helped the growing process of dynamic young QB Corey Robinson (national record of 91 TD passes in his SR High School season, yes 91), who has thrown for 524 yards and four TD’s at 70.7 percent completions, and five different Trojans have already caught five passes or more, while three different players have at least 60 rushing yards. Even with Webb on the field they controlled U.A.B. to the tune of 551-285 in total offense LY, a significantly greater dominance than the 27-14 final score shows, and that is an indication of the gap in talent and direction between these programs. With plenty of seats available for Troy fans for this short trip (a little over two hours), we peg this close to a neutral environment, which makes it even easier for the Trojans to gradually pull away.
Asian Executive
10 Dimes Game of the Month 140 Miami-OH -8
9 Dimes Game of the Week 113 Ball St +16.5
9 Dimes Game of the Week 118 Temple +6.5
8 Dimes 187 UNLV +7
4 Dimes 141 Florida -14
3 Dimes 192 UCLA +3
RAS
1 Unit Ark. St -3
1 Unit UCF -7
1 Unit S. Miss -4
2 Units Ark St Under 54.5
All 1 Unit
Arizona Over 43
UCLA Over 60
S Miss Over 49
Buffalo Over 44
N Dame Over 51.5
SMU Under 57.5
WUNDERDOG
5 Units TCU -21
4 Units Minnesota +11.5
4 Units Missouri -13.5
3 Units Temple +6.5
3 Units Penn State -21
3 Units Duke +24
3 Units on Utah State +5.5
2 Units Ohio State -30
2 Units Ole Miss -12
Larry Ness
Legend - Arizona
Tim Trushel
20* Wake Forest
Washington
Rice
Dr Bob
Arizona (+1.5) 2-Stars at -1 or better.
Stanford (-17) 2-Stars at -19 or less.
Strong Opinions
Iowa State-Kansas State OVER (49.5) Strong Opinion OVER 51 points or less.
Ohio-Ohio State UNDER (46) Strong Opinion Under 45 points or higher.
Oklahoma State (-6.5) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
King Creole
2* Georgia Tech +2
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket GOM - USC Trojans
Baylor
Navy
Miss St
N Mexico St
Stanford
Tony George
UConn -6.5
LPW Sports Forecast
10 Unit Game of Week - Va.Tech -19.5 over ECU
Hokies simply plagued by sloppy play last week as they had a 23-14 1st down advantage and simply didnt appear focused after loss to Boise.St ECU off miracle Win against Tulsa and Win over Memphis that was a bit misleading as Memphis garnered 413 total yards! ECU will have difficult time here slowing down a motivated Hokie team! Blow out!
10 Unit Underdog Game of Week - Clemson +7 over Auburn
Auburn off huge SEC win last week and will face toughest test of season to date with Clemson and a very balanced attack.This should be a close game with Clemson having solid shot at su and we feel experience at QB gives added edge.Take Points
Other College Releases
6 Units Army -5.5 over N.Texas St
6 Units Washington +3 over Nebraska
5 Units BallSt/Purdue Under 49
5 Units Washington St +23 over SMU
3 Units Hawaii/Colorado Over 55.5
The King Maker
10* Arkansas +2
401KSports
4* BOISE ST. -23.5 over Wyoming
Well Boise took a big blow last week seeing Virginia Tech lose to lowly James Madison as the win over V Tech does not look all that impressive now to the voters are computers now they travel to Wyoming to face the cowboys who have not looked good at all in the 2 games they have played against southern Utah they only had 36 yards rushing and were just 4/10 on 3rd downs and were sacked 3 times and S.Utah held the ball for 35 minutes and had 384 yards of offense versus Wyoming and things did not get any better last week versus Texas they were 3/15 on 3rd and 4th down combined sacked 3 times and only had 257 yards of offense. Wyoming cannot run and if they are no better on 3rd downs then Boise will do what i expect here the broncos know they must go out and lay the wood to these teams and let the chips fall were they may as for the rankings go. I look for Boise to lay a whooping on Wyoming even on the road. Boise 48 Wyoming 14.
3* HOUSTON -4 over UCLA
The bruins have really looked bad in these first two games Kansas St. rushed for 313 yards and last week Stanford rushed for 211 yards and both teams controlled the clock 35 and 36 minutes respectfully the bruins were really pushed around last week at home versus Stanford losing 35-0. In the first two games the bruins are a combined 4/22 on 3rd downs and the Qb is 20/47 with 4 int's. The cougars offense continues to roll as they had 308 yards rushing last week versus UTEP to go along with that terrific passing game and after two games they are averaging 61 points per game now this would be even a better play if we new for sure that Case Keenum was going to play i for one think he plays here but for now we will leave it at a 3*. Even if the bruins can hold the cougars to half their average 30 points i just cannot see the bruins offense matching it. One other tidbit last season the bruins averaged 79,000 at home but only had 56,000 last week and they are not expecting more than 50,000 Saturday night the bruins are 0-2 and with a trip to Texas next week it looks like a rough year for the bruins.
3* NEBRASKA -3 over Washington
I was surprised when this line came out as i was expecting to see Nebraska -7 so -3 is a nice gift the Cornhuskers have rushed for 649 total yards in the first two games and the defense got better from game 1 to game 2. Now Washington will have to have balance here on offense if locker is forced to throw the ball 40 times here against this defense and secondary he will be in for along day last week the Cornhuskers held Idaho to 60 yards rushing forcing them to the air and they were 21/39 for 219 yards passing but the Cornhuskers had 5 int's and 7 Qb sacks if the huskies do not have balance it will be a tough day for locker. For those who read my top 25 before the season knows i like Nebraska to make it to the national title game so laying only -3 on the road against a team who may or may not make it to a bowl game i will gladly take that lets lay the number with Nebraska here today.
2* WISCONSIN -12 over Arizona St.
Last year the Sundevils were 4-8 they have started this season 2-0 but those wins were against Portland State and northern Arizona but today is a whole nother matter traveling to the east coast to face one of the big tens best as i mentioned the Sundevils were 4-8 last season and only return 4 starters on offense and 7 on defense. The badgers have all 5 offensive linemen back from last season and a terrific back in john clay and the badgers believe they have a shot at the Big Ten title. The badgers will pound the rock and control the clock and the Sundevils young QB will make mistakes i see a Wisconsin 35-13 final here today.
2* W.MICHIGAN -3 over Toledo
The rockets are averaging less than 3 yards a carry on the ground and less than 200 yards of total offense and on defense while they were better last week versus Ohio the bobcats never really attacked them thru the air where they are vulnerable and QB carder and the W.Michigan offense is averaging near 300 yards passing and should have no trouble throwing the ball against this rockets squad. I will back the broncos at home only laying a field goal here!!