Marc Lawrence
Texas Tech +3
When the Red Raiders host the Longhorns in the Big 12 opener for both teams tonight they will do so knowing that Texas Tech is 15-1 SU in its last 16 home games. In addition, head coach Tommy Tuberville is 14-9 SU and 16-7 ATS in his career as a college head coach against undefeated conference opposition, including 5-0 ATS as a dog of less than nine points versus an opponent off a win of less than 20 points. In addition, Texas head coach Mack Brown is 4-18 ATS in his college head coaching career as a favorite versus an undefeated foe, including 0-6 away. With Texas quarterback Garrett Gilbert making his first road start in an extremely tough venue, we'll take the points in this revenge payback tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Texas Tech.
Evan Altemus
4 Units Kansas St.-3.5
This game is a great match-up for Kansas State. They are all about running the ball and will no have no problem running against a weak Iowa State front seven. There is good value on this game being so early in the season because these two teams haven’t had a chance to go in different directions. Kansas State has a star running back in Daniel Thomas, as well as several starters back this season on the offensive line. Last season Kansas State was able to go into Iowa State and get a win, as well as winning the previous season when their program was struggling. Wildcats coach Bill Snyder is excellent at getting his team ready to play and putting them in a position to win. Iowa State has really been gashed on the ground this season and aren’t able to match up with Kansas State’s offensive and defensive lines. Last week’s result against Missouri State is a little misleading because they were winning 41-10 in the 3rd quarter before letting up. Look for Kansas State to blowout Iowa State with a dominating rushing performance.
3 Units Nebraska -3
This selection appears to be a square play, but it is really not once you look further at this game. Nebraska has one of the best defenses in the country and defense is able to travel on the road while offense sometimes isn't. The Cornhuskers haven't had huge blowout wins in their first two games, but those final scores are misleading. Nebraska picked off Idaho's starting quarterback five times last week and were leading 31-3 at halftime before taking off the pedal. The key for Nebraska's offense is to be able to run the ball and both BYU and Syracuse were able to run fairly effectively against Washington, especially BYU. Washington has a decent home field advantage, but I don't think it will be enough for them to get the win. The Cornhuskers have said that this game is huge for them because it's a chance to get a big non-conference win. They are a physical team that will be able to run the ball effectively, making it less of a downside with their freshman quarterback. The Huskies simply aren't physical and will really struggle with the Cornhuskers running game and defense. Nebraska played well at Virginia Tech last season, despite losing by one point mainly because of dumb mistakes. Bo Pelini is a great coach, and I expect Nebraska to get a dominating win.
Bob Balfe
LSU -7.5
LSU (at home, at night) is a magical place and the team usually plays well in this setting. Jordan Jefferson did not play well last week and yet the Tigers still won with ease because their defense is that good. LSU cornerback, Patrick Peterson, is so good that he takes away half of the field himself. He also handles the kickoffs and punts and is a threat to break one every time he touches the ball.
The LSU defensive line has 10 sacks already this year and will be looking to do major damage tonight. Mississippi State does not have a great running game and their style of offense is not going to cut it in SEC play. Mississippi State Coach, Dan Mullen, rotates too many guys at major positions which allows no rhythm whatsoever do be successful. Last year, Mississippi State hung tough but look for the Tigers to take them very seriously this time and to get the big, decisive win at home. Take LSU.
Cincinnati Reds -135
The Reds have a much better offense than the Astros and pitcher Bronson Arroyo holds a significant advantage over Figueroa. Arroyo has won his last three starts against the Astros and gets good enough run support when he pitches to make this a low-risk, high-reward game. Take Cincinnati.
Lenny Del Genio
Navy-3.5
The Naval Academy suffered one of the more stunning losses in recent CFB memory in its opening game to Maryland, falling 17-14. The Middies had the ball inside the Terps 2yd line FOUR different times and came away with ZERO points on those drives. Overall, they would outgain Maryland by over 200 yards and gain 15 more first downs. Clearly, there was a hangover effect in last week's narrow 13-7 escape of Georgia Southern. That leaves HC Ken Niumatalolo's team at 0-2 ATS to start the year and we can now take advantage of the line value against a Louisiana Tech team we successfully played against last week. These teams met just last year and similar to that Maryland game, Navy completely dominated the TOP (41:11-18:49) while outgaining the Bulldogs by a +226 yard margin and out first downing them 23-10. This despite falling behind 14-0 early before 32 unanswered points led to an easy cover as seven-point favorites in Annapolis. The Navy defense certainly has not struggled in the early going, allowing just 47 yards passing TOTAL in two games (only 14 attempts). As mentioned last week, La Tech is transitioning to a new offense under 1st year HC Sonny Dykes and OC Tony Franklin and the spread has yet to pay dividends with only 36 points scored vs. Grambling and Texas A&M. Against the Aggies last Saturday, they ran the ball for just 61 yards on 40 carries! Defensively, it is always hard to prepare for Navy's triple option. Despite this year's slow start at the pay window, the Middies remain one of the best pointspread teams in the country, particularly when they sail outside of Annapolis, going 55-25 ATS in road games. That includes a sterling 36-14 mark when coming off an ATS loss. They are also 31-13 vs. the number coming off a home win. Take Navy.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Maryland +10.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:
The Terrapins are both 2-0 SU and ATS; in Week 1 they won 17-14 as a 6 1/2 points dog over Navy; in Week 2 they annihilated Morgan State 62-3; suffice to say I expect this team to keep things rolling in Week 3 and keep this one close enough down the stretch to get the ATS victory.
"We could have gone out and just not been into the game, but that wasn't the case at all," state head coach Ralph Friedgen. "Coming off a very emotional game Monday and on a short week of practice, I knew that Morgan [State] was going to come in here fired up and our team met the challenge and I was proud of them."
Maryland's biggest strength has been its ground attack which has wracked up nearly 500 yards in just the first two games.
The defense has been stout as well; a critical goal-line stand gave it a win over Navy in the opener; however they did give up 412 yards on the ground in that game.
Marylands response in Week 2; it allowed Morgan State just 37 yards on the ground on 28 carries; just another 85 more through the air.
And if Maryland's done one thing well over the last two years, it's playing well in the roll of underdog; 10-7 ATS (it's also 5-4 ATS in non-conference games).
On the other side of the field: So far the Mountaineers are 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS. In Week 1 it crushed Coastal Carolina 31-0, but failed to cover the spread as a 41 1/2 point favorite; in Week 2 in survived a scare against Marshall, winning 24-21, failing to cover the spread as a 12-point favorite.
West Virginia was down by 15 heading into the fourth quarter last week, to eventually win in OT.
QB Geno Smith got better as the game went on; RB Noel Devine was also sharp.
However, the Mountaineers defense was its weak-point and I believe the red hot Terps will be able to score against it; last week West Virginia gave up a couple of big plays to Marshall including a 96-yard TD.
It's interesting to note that West Virginia is in fact just 3-8 ATS in non-conference games over the last two years; also 4-8 ATS its last 12 in front of the home town crowd and just 6-15 ATS when playing the roll of favorite (also just 2-7 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins).
Bottom line: Maryland is looking to continue its hot run; note that they've already tied their entire win total from last season!
When taking into account all of the above information, it all adds up to a *10* ESPN "BOOKIEKILLER" on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS!
Mike Lineback
4* (POD) North Carolina Tar Heels -2.5
North Carolina still dealing with suspensions, but coming off bye week and home game vs. LSU. After adjusting to 13 suspensions vs. LSU, the Tar Heels came on strong in the second-half and nearly pulled off the come from behind upset. They out-first downed, out-gained and their offense out-scored the Tigers in their opener. LSU returned a punt in the 2nd Q for a TD, which turned out to be the difference in the game. Four year starter T.J Yates threw for 412 yards and 3 TD's. Senior tailback Shaun Draughn returns from suspension, which completes a very talented offensive unit, that basically returns intact this season, including one of the best OL's in the league. Yes, key DE Austin is suspended, and likely talented DE Quinnt and S Williams are out as well. However, Butch Davis has a deep & athletic NFL type D unit in place. In other words, talented players are ready to step in for suspended players. Georgia Tech has looked sloppy out of the gate. They lost last week to Kansas, who lost to North Dakota State at home, and was throttled by Southern Mississippi last night. Talented QB Nesbitt, definitely misses his two best playmakers--Dwyer & Thomas--who both left early for the NFL. Plus, the Yellow Jackets have had to replace 4 key offensive lineman. The defensive on paper is solid, but you have to wonder now, after giving up 28 points to the Jayhawks. Nevertheless, Tech have become very one-dimensional. Nesbitt is still the leading rusher (193 total; 63 Lweek), but he has struggled in the passing game. Only 124 total yards in two games (6-21, 29%). I think it's important to note, North Carolina have had 2 weeks to prepare for Georgia Tech's option offensive, and have the athletic personnel to defend the run. Not to mention, they have one of the best secondaries in the nation, with or without Williams. Plus, they have home field, revenge on their mind from last seasons beatdown, and you can't help but think, all the recent adversity will make the Tar Heels a tougher and more motivated team on Saturday.
Fantasy Sports Gametime
50* Play Tampa Bay (-240) over LA Angels
Tampa Bay has won 9 of the last 10 games as a home favorite of -225 to -250 and they have also won 7 of the last 9 games vs. Los Angeles at home. David Price has won 4 consecutive games vs. AL West Division Opponents and he is 8-2 at home this season with an ERA of 1.99.
50* Play New York (-200) over Baltimore
New York has won 15 of the last 18 road games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and they have also won 72 of the last 100 games as a favorite of -200 or higher. C.C. Sabathia has won 20 of the last 23 road games as a favorite of -175 or higher and he is 13-2 vs. Baltimore over his career with an ERA of 2.81.
Northcoast
3* UConn/Temple Under 49
Small College
4* E Mich
4* Penn St
Rocketman
West Va.
Okla
AZ St.
Northcoast
4* W Michigan -3
4* Ark St - 4
4* Florida St - 10
3* Ohio St - 29.5
3* Oklahoma - 16.5
Dave Cokin
Arkansas +3
San Diego State +16
Notre Dame +3.5
The Sports Boss
4* North Texas
3* Connecticut
3* Kansas State
3* North Carolina
BIG AL
Elite Play - Arizona Wildcats
High Roller Play - Wisconsin
Jeff Benton
20 DIME Florida State
10 DIME Virginia Tech
10 DIME Duke
FLORIDA STATE
Both BYU and Florida State are in bounce-back mode after disastrous three-touchdown road losses last week – BYU at Air Force; FSU at Oklahoma. But I give the Seminoles a much better shot at actually rebounding for two big reasons:
1) They have way better athletes than BYU; 2) They have an established senior quarterback; and 3) While losing by 30 points at Oklahoma (and they were down 47-10 before a fluke TD on the final play of the game) is never acceptable for a program like Florida State, it was still Oklahoma in Norman (where the Sooners haven’t lost in four years). BYU, on the other hand, had beaten Air Force six straight times and yet was completely outclassed in the 35-21 loss (the Cougars were outgained 477-309).
As for the athlete argument, look no further than last year when Florida State went to Provo as an 8½-point road underdog and destroyed BYU 54-28. The Seminoles rolled up 512 yards of total offense, including 313 on the road on 49 carries (6.4 yards per rush). And if not for the heroics of BYU senior QB Max Hall (20-for-31, 306 yards, two TDs), the Cougars would’ve lost by 40.
As it was, Hall tossed three picks in the defeat, and he was a third-year starter. This year, BYU has been juggling quarterbacks with Riley Nelson and Jake Heaps taking turns under center. It looks as though Nelson has won the job, but the two have still comained to complete barely 50 percent of their passes for 340 total yards, two TDs and one INT. And BYU’s usual high-flying offense has managed just four TDs and 37 points in two games.
While BYU is struggling at the QB position, the Seminoles have senior Christian Ponder (he’s actually a grad student already). Ponder did NOT play well at Oklahoma last week (11-for-28, 113 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs), but that’s why I like him all the more today – he’ll be highly motivated to atone for that stinker, especially at home. (Last year, when his tailbacks weren’t running up and down the field, Ponder went 21-for-26 for 195 yards, two TDs and no picks at BYU).
In his last four games in Tallahassee, Ponder has guided Florida State to point totals of 59 (Samford in Week 1), 29 (Maryland), 45 (North Carolina State) and 44 (Georgia Tech). That’s an average of 44.3 ppg, and if the ‘Noles come anywhere close to that average today, they’ll crush BYU by four TDs again as the Cougars offense is in a big state of flux and cannot trade scores with Florida State (which has been a strong bounce-back team recently, going 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games following a defeat)..
VIRGINIA TECH
Let’s see, you’ve got an 0-2 team – with one of those losses coming against a Division I-AA opponent at home – laying nearly three touchdowns to an opponent that’s 2-0 and has scored 51 and 49 points in its first two games. And there’s actually VALUE on the big favorite? Yep, sure is!
Look, there’s no excuse – NONE! – for Virginia Tech losing that game to James Madison last week as a 33-point home chalk. I don’t care about the hangover effect from the last-minute loss to Boise State the weak previous, and I don’t care that the Hokies only had five days to prep. When you’re a team that entered the season ranked 10th in the country, you HAVE to put forth a better showing than the Hokies did last week – maybe they don’t cover a 33-point spread, but to lose to James Madison? In Blacksburg? Totally unacceptable.
But it happened, and now that Va-Tech got its wake-up call, I’m of the belief it will show up breathing fire in this contest. Seriously, the Hokies will be in major stateement-making mode today, and I’m telling you there is no way Frank Beamer will call off the dogs until the final gun sounds to end the game. Which means you should pity East Carolina, which is taking a huge step up in class after season-opening home wins over Tulsa (51-49) and crappy Memphis (49-27).
True, the Pirates have now won 10 of their last 13, but look at who they beat: Central Florida, Marshall, Rice, Memphis (twice), Tulsa (twice), UAB, Southern Miss and Houston. Of those, only Houston stands out as a true quality win. The three losses? To SMU, Arkansas (bowl game) and, yup, Virginia Tech. Last year, the Hokies avenged a 2008 upset loss at East Carolina (27-22) with a 16-3 win as a 12½-point road favorite. A year after getting outgained 369-243 in the five-point loss at ECU, the Hokies had a 379-277 yardage edge last year, including a 242-110 discrepancy in rushing.
Now after two straight meetings at East Carolina, the scene shifts to Blacksburg, and it’s the first road game for new Panthers QB Dominique Davis – he was terrific in the wins over Memphis and Tulsa, but, again, this is a huge jump in caliber of competition and in a hostile venue, no less. Speaking of the road, East Carolina has lost seven of its last eight road debuts, and it is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 on the highway. The Pirates have also failed to cover in six of seven non-conference games and four straight against ACC foes.
Bottom line: Last week, Virginia Tech got a much-needed reality check with the loss to James Madison. Now the Panthers, who returned just eight starters from last year and are playing their first road game for a new coach, get their wake-up call, and it comes in the form of a 28-plus-point loss. Va-Tech big today – and I mean B-I-G!!
DUKE (First-Half and Game)
No way in hell do I trust Alabama to cover this ridiculously inflated number against Duke, which fields an explosive offense – one that’s put up 89 points and more than 1,000 yards of offense in two games. This much is certain: The Blue Devils’ offense is easily the best the green Crimson Tide defense (just two returning starters) has seen so far this season, as San Jose State and Penn State are inept with the football.
After two comfortable home wins – including last week’s destruction of Penn State – and now riding a 16-game winning streak, I fully expect the deferding champs to be so overconfident that they’ll have trouble putting their helmets on today. That’s not a team I’m willing to lay 24 points with. Not only is overconfidence a factor to consider today, so too is the fact that ‘Bama’s next three games are beyond brutal, as they visit Arkansas next week, then come home to host Florida, then hit the road again to South Carolina for a meeting with the revived Gamecocks.
Put it this way: When your schedule goes Penn State, Duke, Arkansas (road), Florida, South Carolina (road), what’s the one opponent you think would be taken the most lightly? Exactly!
Make no mistake: Alabama will win this football game and will almost certainly win it comfortably – by a good two touchdowns – because they’re way more talented than Duke. However, this is huge flat spot for the Tide, who are just 13-20 ATS in their last 33 games as a double-digit road favorite. Meanwhile it’s the Blue Devils’ biggest home game probably ever. And because Duke can put points on the board at any time – especially against second-stringers in the fourth quarter when Alabama has the game in hand and is looking to stay healthy for the upcoming three-game Arkansas-Florida-South Carolina gauntlet – we’ll have plenty of chances to cover this generous number.
MTi Sports
4* Dodgers
4* NY Mets
4* Astros