Sam Clayton
Iowa vs Arizona PK
Made this write-up Thursday night before Iowa was STEAMED heavily. Locked my wager in at Arizona +2, but still suggest a strong wager on the Wildcats given the spread has CROSSED ZERO with still upwards of 80 percent on Iowa.
Absolutely LOVE this play and the way it’s been capped by the public. I respect Kirk Ferentz and everything he’s done for the Hawkeyes football program, but this is a very rough spot for a team that in the eyes of the average bettor is still celebrating throwing Oranges around in Miami. Iowa has DOMINATED it’s first two opponents AT HOME beating Iowa State and Eastern Illinois (yawn) by a combined 72-14. HOWEVER, the biggest challenge is on the horizon traveling out of a definite Midwest comfort zone and into the desert to play No. 24 Arizona. The Wildcats have beaten their two opponents by a combined 93-8 – and haven’t allowed a touchdown. It's probably best to say both teams haven't really been tested, but props to UofA for not allowing a score. On the offensive side of the ball, ‘Cats QB Nick Foles has become one of the best in the nation since taking over the reigns after the Iowa game last year. He went on the road and led Arizona to impressive wins at Oregon State and USC and so far this year, he’s completed 49 of 59 passes for 574 yards. The home team has won the last THREE contests in this blossoming rivalry and Iowa backers are flirting with a serious PUBLIC DISASTER. This game kicks off at 10:30 p.m. ET and the already-80 percent backing the Hawkeyes will INCREASE as bettors chase and try and cut losses in the night cap. Public road favorites on the last game of a card are DANGEROUS. Iowa is 0-6 their last six trips west of the Rockies since 1987 and as I mentioned before, this is a definite disadvantage for the Hawkeyes playing outside of Big Ten country.
2* Notre Dame +3.5 +100 vs Michigan State
Simply put, the Irish a COMPLETELY different team without Dayne Crist. The junior quarterback drove Notre Dame all the way down the field on the opening drive for six points. On the ensuing drive, ND got a three-and-out on 'D' and got the ball back at the Michigan 30. Then, Tommy Rees threw the interception that swung the momentum and changed the entire landscape of the game. Crist is the CATALYST of the offense. When he’s in there, Notre Dame is one of the most versatile in all of college football. His 63 percent accuracy clip, his 3 to 1 TD/INT ratio and most importantly – his familiarity with Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph. I look at strength of schedule as well as ND has played an OK Purdue team and a surprisingly good Michigan Wolverines team. MSU on the other side of the coin has played two straight non-BCS cupcakes in Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic. Those schools are not going to prepare you for the Irish and that’s a FACT. It looks rather easy just scooping up the 3.5 points with ND, but with Crist back under center and this defense learning a lot about themselves after hanging with Denard Robinson, this should be a very close game. I like the Irish to win outright so I’m obviously stoked to grab a field goal and THEN some.
Sam Clayton
3* Iowa vs Arizona PK
Made this write-up Thursday night before Iowa was STEAMED heavily. Locked my wager in at Arizona +2, but still suggest a strong wager on the Wildcats given the spread has CROSSED ZERO with still upwards of 80 percent on Iowa.
Absolutely LOVE this play and the way it’s been capped by the public. I respect Kirk Ferentz and everything he’s done for the Hawkeyes football program, but this is a very rough spot for a team that in the eyes of the average bettor is still celebrating throwing Oranges around in Miami. Iowa has DOMINATED it’s first two opponents AT HOME beating Iowa State and Eastern Illinois (yawn) by a combined 72-14. HOWEVER, the biggest challenge is on the horizon traveling out of a definite Midwest comfort zone and into the desert to play No. 24 Arizona. The Wildcats have beaten their two opponents by a combined 93-8 – and haven’t allowed a touchdown. It's probably best to say both teams haven't really been tested, but props to UofA for not allowing a score. On the offensive side of the ball, ‘Cats QB Nick Foles has become one of the best in the nation since taking over the reigns after the Iowa game last year. He went on the road and led Arizona to impressive wins at Oregon State and USC and so far this year, he’s completed 49 of 59 passes for 574 yards. The home team has won the last THREE contests in this blossoming rivalry and Iowa backers are flirting with a serious PUBLIC DISASTER. This game kicks off at 10:30 p.m. ET and the already-80 percent backing the Hawkeyes will INCREASE as bettors chase and try and cut losses in the night cap. Public road favorites on the last game of a card are DANGEROUS. Iowa is 0-6 their last six trips west of the Rockies since 1987 and as I mentioned before, this is a definite disadvantage for the Hawkeyes playing outside of Big Ten country.
2* Notre Dame +3.5 +100 vs Michigan State
Simply put, the Irish a COMPLETELY different team without Dayne Crist. The junior quarterback drove Notre Dame all the way down the field on the opening drive for six points. On the ensuing drive, ND got a three-and-out on 'D' and got the ball back at the Michigan 30. Then, Tommy Rees threw the interception that swung the momentum and changed the entire landscape of the game. Crist is the CATALYST of the offense. When he’s in there, Notre Dame is one of the most versatile in all of college football. His 63 percent accuracy clip, his 3 to 1 TD/INT ratio and most importantly – his familiarity with Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph. I look at strength of schedule as well as ND has played an OK Purdue team and a surprisingly good Michigan Wolverines team. MSU on the other side of the coin has played two straight non-BCS cupcakes in Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic. Those schools are not going to prepare you for the Irish and that’s a FACT. It looks rather easy just scooping up the 3.5 points with ND, but with Crist back under center and this defense learning a lot about themselves after hanging with Denard Robinson, this should be a very close game. I like the Irish to win outright so I’m obviously stoked to grab a field goal and THEN some.
BEST PICKS HANDICAPPING
Notre Dame +3.5
Arizona -1
WAYNE ROOT
MILLIONAIRE - WASHINGTON
BILLIONAIRE - ARIZONA
NO LIMIT - TEXAS TECH
PINNACLE - CLEMSON
Seabass
300 Wash
100 Kent st
100 USC
100 Tulsa
100 Miss St
100 Tex Tech
50 Rice
50 Troy
200 Steam WMU
200 Steam Arizona
C-Star Sports
5000 Units Virginia Tech minus the points over East Carolina
5000 Units Georgia minus the points over Arkansas
1000 units Maryland plus the points over West Virginia
Purelock
Temple
Youngstown Connection
Kansas St -3.5
BIG AL
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos, as we will fade Toledo off its 20-13 upset win last week over Ohio (as a double-digit underdog). And, off that upset win, Toledo falls into two very strong negative systems of mine that each go against teams off upset wins. One is 86-29 ATS over the past 31 seasons, while the other is 159-99 ATS. Additionally, the Rockets have lost 4 straight games (1-3 ATS) to Western Michigan by an average score of 40-20. Take the Broncos.
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over LSU. The Tigers just might be the worst home team in college football. Indeed, on home or neutral fields, LSU is now 0-18 ATS off a win, when matched up against a conference foe. That's one reason I favor the Bulldogs. Another is that LSU falls into a negative 15-45 ATS system of mine that fades certain favorites in their home opener, provided they're NOT playing with revenge. Take Miss State + the points.
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Monroe Rajin' Cajuns + the points over Arkansas St. The Red Wolves play their home opener on Saturday night following two road tilts to start the season. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on such home teams, under the theory that they would be excited to finally play in front of their home faithful. Unfortunately, for Steve Roberts' men, unrested home favorites of -10 points or less (or PK) are awful bets in Game 3 after playing their first two games on the road. They've covered just 19 of 60 games. Take La-Monroe.
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Tulsa. The Cowboys have stormed out to a 2-0 start, with a 65-17 win over Washington State in Week 1, and then a 41-38 victory last week over Troy State. One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on offensive-minded teams, and the Cowboys certainly fit the bill, with an average of 53 ppg scored this season. And, since 1983, 2-0 home teams, that average 40 points per game, are 64% ATS in Game 3 vs. non-conference foes NOT off back to back wins, including 24-4 ATS the past 28! Moreover, the Cowboys are 75% ATS over the past 31 years at home vs. non-conference foes, if they scored 40+ points in their previous game, and are off back-to-back wins! And the home team in this rivalry is a super 12-1 ATS since 1986 when not laying double digits. College Football Roadkill on the Cowboys!
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Texas, as Texas Tech falls into a 112-48 ATS system of mine. Two years ago, we had one of our strongest plays in years on Texas Tech, and Michael Crabtree & Co. rewarded us with an upset of the highly-ranked Longhorns. That was Texas' last regular season loss, and Texas avenged that defeat last season with a win in Austin. But now the two teams hook up again in Lubbock, though this time old coach Mike Leach won't be on the sideline. Instead, former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville is calling the plays, and he has sensational QB Taylor Potts behind center. Potts has completed 56 of 87 passes for 652 yards and 7 touchdowns. Even more impressive, he has yet to throw an interception. So, even though former stars Crabtree and Graham Harrell are now earning paychecks in the NFL, that doesn't mean Texas Tech's talent level has dropped. Indeed, ex-coach Leach is on record as saying that the current roster of players is the best that Texas Tech has ever had. In contrast, this is a "rebuilding" year for the Longhorns. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert certainly won't make any of the burnt orange faithful forget Colt McCoy, and the Longhorn running game has yet to come completely together (it's averaging 4.9 yards per rush vs. defenses that allow 4.6 yards per rush). Last week vs. Wyoming, backup RBs Fozzy Whittaker and Cody Johnson had the biggest impact. Whittaker led the Horns with 62 yards on seven carries, while Johnson gained 46 yards on nine carries. Starter Tre Newton only picked up 25 yards on eight attempts. But even though Texas was a HUGE 28-point favorite vs. the Cowboys, it only had 389 yards of total offense. It also is starting very slowly in games, with just three points in the 1st quarter this year (in two games), compared to Texas Tech, which has scored 28 first quarter points. That won't get the job done against this Red Raider squad, which is 35-15 ATS at home vs. .500 (or better) conference foes since 1993. The underdog is also 19-11 ATS in this series. Take the points. Big 12 Game of the Month on Texas Tech.
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over Iowa. Last season, Iowa defeated Arizona at Kinnick Stadium 27-17, as 4.5-point favorites, so Arizona plays this ballgame with revenge. And, according to my database, they'll get it, as they fall into a revenge system that also incorporates a team's points scored, which is 27-2 ATS over the past 31 years (Arizona is averaging 46.5 ppg after 2 games). In that 27-17 loss, Arizona QB Nick Foles came off the bench and threw a TD pass. He's been the Wildcats' starting QB ever since, and has plenty of weapons at his disposal (nine Wildcats caught passes last week vs. The Citadel). So far this season, the 6'5" junior QB is a terrific 49-for-59 for 574 yards and 3 TDs. Admittedly, Iowa has a superb defense (especially on its defensive line, which returned four seniors), and is very physical on both sides of the line of scrimmage, but I fully expect 7th-year coach Mike Stoops' men to defeat the 9th-ranked Hawkeyes. Indeed, Arizona's defense has also played great this year, as well, as it's not yet allowed a touchdown. The Wildcats have been dominant at home for 3 1-2 seasons now, as they're 12-2 ATS since November 3, 2007, with the only pointspread losses being by 1 point and 5 points! Take Arizona.
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Arizona State. Sports betting is always about finding value, and one of the things that creates value is when a team comes into a game off a string of pointspread defeats. Teams that fail to cover the spread don't attract many followers, and that's the case on Saturday with the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisky opened up its 2010 campaign with a 20-point win over UNLV, 41-21. Unfortunately for the Badgers' backers, they were favored by 20.5 points, so Wisky burned all the tickets on them. However, if one looked beyond the final score, and examined the stats in that game, one would have seen that the Badgers completely dominated UNLV, as Wisconsin outgained UNLV in yardage by a 475 to 217 count. Last week, the Badgers played an uninspired game at home vs. San Jose State. Wisconsin was favored by a whopping 39 points, yet won by only 13, 27-14, and only outgained the Spartans by 96 yards (403 to 307). Now, the Badgers will get their first "true test" of the season, when they welcome Arizona State to Camp Randall Stadium. The Sun Devils are 2-0, and have 553 and 450 yards of offense in their first two games (while surrendering 238 and 263 yards to their foes). But we'll step in and lay the points with Wisconsin, as College Football teams are 35-1 straight-up and 29-6-1 ATS over the past 31 seasons in Game 3, when they're priced from -13.5 to -40 points, and off back to back ATS losses as a favorite. And, if our 'play-on' team failed to cover the spread by 9+ points in its last game, then our 29-6 stat zooms to 15-0 ATS! NCAA High Roller on the Badgers.
Executive
400 Iowa State
AntonWins
4 Units Arkansas +2
POWER PLAY WINS
PENN ST -21
VIRGINIA TECH -20.5
NEBRASKA -3
WISCONSIN -12
FLORIDA ST -10
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. -3.5
WESTERN MICHIGAN -3.5
NAVY -3
BOISE ST -23.5
HOUSTON -4
KELSO
25 Units Philadelphia Phillies -160
15 Units Minnesota Twins -120
10 Units Colorado Rockies -125
Preferred Picks
3* Georgia Tech
3* Washington
3* UAB
Info Plays
10* Ole Miss
Teddy Covers
Boston/Toronto Over 9
Dave Cokin
Reds
Ultra Sports
Notre Dame
Florida St
Washington
Arizona
Texas Tech
Bruce Marshal
UNLV at Idaho
Pick: UNLY +7.5
After facing rugged Wisconsin and Utah, UNLV will feel like it's on a group date with a collection of Fox News anchor babes (take your pick) for this trip to the Kibbie Dome. Expect some of the things that couldn't work for the Rebel "O" vs. the Badgers and Utes to come a bit easier vs.a movable Idaho "D" that allowed 36 ppg in '09, with UNLV QB Omar Clayton likely to have more of an infantry diversion to set up his play-action a bit better. Meanwhile, the rebuiilt Vandal OL is a long way from last year's veteran forward wall featuring NFL first-round draftee Mike Iupati (49ers), and QB Nate Enderle (5 picks last week at Nebraska) has struggled when pressured in the past. Play UNLV