RAS
Pitt -7 1 Unit
Baylor -10 1 Unit
Northcoast Sports Pick Pack
Matchup: Ohio State at Toledo
Play: Ohio State -20.5
Ohio St Over Toledo (Cleveland) - Last met in ‘98, OSU 49-0 (-37). This is a HG for Toledo but Cleveland is Tressel’s hometown and 90% of the crowd should be in Scarlet and Gray. Toledo does have a great situation as they are off an impressive Friday night whipping of Colorado (we had an easy Friday Night Marquee Winner on the Over) and catches OSU off of their last minute loss to USC with the B10 opener vs IL on deck. OSU is 14-3 as an AF. New UT HC Beckman was OSU’s DB coach in ‘05 and ‘06 and he has a veteran QB in Opelt who avg 371 ypg (62%) with a 7-2 ratio. The Rockets’ D is T-#2 NCAA with 6 int. OSU allowed true frosh QB Barkley to lead the Trojans 86/14pl scoring the gm winning TD with 1:05 left and also all’d Navy 2 late TD’s to nearly tie it up. The Bucks were outFD’d 18-10 and outgained 313-265 LW as OSU had just 90 yds after taking a 10-7 2Q lead. OSU has to focus on the run gm which is #81 NCAA (121 ypg, 3.5). UT should be confident after knocking off Colorado and beating Michigan in the Big House LY.
Louisville at Kentucky
Play: Louisville +14
Louisville (+) Over KENTUCKY - This game is played for the Governor’s Cup and has huge stakes in terms of recruiting. UL is 7-3 in this series (visitors 9-6 SU) but the Cats have won the last 2 (both outright upsets). UK has never beaten UL 3 years in a row. Last year UL failed to score a TD for the 1st time since 2000 and UK (+3) won 27-2 despite only a 210-205 yd edge. Both teams are off a bye. In week 1, UK dominated Miami OH 42-0 with a 488-188 yd edge. UK QB Hartline threw for a solid 222 (67%) with a 2-0 ratio. UL beat FCS Indiana St 30-10 with a 419-101 yd edge. UL QB Justin Burke (PS#12, NCSt transfer) will make his 1st road start and threw for 223 yds (55%) but with an 0-2 ratio in the opener. Burke missed his 1st 8 passes but hit 17 of 23 after that. UL has 3 DL returning this week (missed opener). UK is on a 1-5 run as a HF and in this series UK has only been favored twice the L10Y and lost both outright.
So. Cal at Washington
Play: Washington +20.5
WASHINGTON (+) Over USC - New UW HC Sarkisian helped the Huskies earn their 1st win in 16 tries LW vs Idaho as QB Locker (287 ypg, 60%, 5-1 ratio) has proven to be a legit passing threat over the L2W in the new Husky offense. Sarkisian was the Trojans’ OC the L2Y so he has great knowledge of the USC players and preparation. LY in the 1st gm after the announcement of Willingham’s termination, USC shutout UW 56-0 at the Coliseum as the Huskies failed to get past the Trojan 45. USC is just 1-6 ATS in P10 road openers and is off their huge, last minute win in Columbus as true frosh QB Barkley (195 yds, 48%, 1-1 ratio) matured quickly against a stellar OSU def (lost LY at Oregon St as a 25 pt fav the week after Ohio St). The Trojan def has been dominant the L2Y as they have kept 7 of their L/10 opp under 200 yds incl surrendering just 184 to UW LY. They are, however, just 2-7 ATS in the 2nd of B2B RG’s, and meet an energized UW program that is the most improved team in the country.
Michigan St at Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -10
NOTRE DAME Over Mich St - The visitor had won 7 in a row SU prior to LY’s MSU 23-7 win in East Lansing. ND had 3 TO’s deep in MSU terr and missed 2 FG’s. ND has faced the Spartans 8 straight years after playing Mich. MSU’s 6 str wins in South Bend is a record for an Irish opponent. Both teams were upset victims LW with the Irish allowing Michigan to drive 57 yd for the gm winning TD with :11 left after Weis called 2 passes in the series prior which saved UM 2 TO’s. The Irish finished with 27-21 FD and 490-430 yd edges and allowed a 94 yd KR TD. QB Clausen is #3 NCAA pass eff avg 326 ypg (66.7%) with a 7-0 ratio. WR Floyd (11, 320) is #2 NCAA rec ypg despite missing the last 6:22 LW while getting stitches in his knee. CM scored 9 pts in the final :40 capping a 72 yd TD drive, rec an onside kick missing a 47 yd FG but getting a 2nd chance to hit the gm winning 42 yd FG with :03 left to beat MSU for the 1st time S/’92. The Chips finished with 27-17 FD, 33:25-26:35 TOP and 418-316 yd edges. Cousins is #6 NCAA in pass eff avg 174 ypg (66%) with a 4-0 ratio despite being victimized by several drops. He QB’d the entire 2H LW and is likely to get his 1st road start here. The Irish have edges on both sides (#4-57 off) and (#21-29 D) and need to snap MSU’s streak if Weis wants to stay on the Irish sidelines.
Tulsa at Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -16.5
OKLAHOMA over Tulsa - Last gm in ‘07 saw a combined 83 pts and 951 yds and we won a Thurs Nite play on OU 63-21 (-23). The Sooners are on a 9-1 run vs TU with the avg MOV 36 ppg and they will be up for an in-state team that was 10-0 at one pt LY, especially since OU is off FCS Idaho St with only a bye on deck. Tulsa is on their 3rd str RG and all‘d 32 ppg on the road in ‘08 while OU scored 52 ppg at home LY (avg win 53-20). Both teams are off blowout wins as OU destroyed Idaho St 64-0 and TU got a solid road win over New Mexico 44-10. QB Kinne has taken the reins of TU’s high-powered offense and played mistake free LW. He threw for 310 yds (63%) with a 4-0 ratio as TU outgained NM 489-171. That may be the key for TU as OU looks to pound the ball with Heisman QB Bradford still sidelined. New starting QB Landry Jones settled in against the lesser foe and finished with 286 yds (56%) with a 3-1 ratio. OU had three RB’s with over 60 yds rushing with Murray leading the way (101, 8.4). There’s nothing wrong with the Sooners D (#2) which will keep the Hurricane at bay while Jones matures.
San Diego State at Idaho
Play: San Diego State -3
San Diego St Over IDAHO - SDSt leads the series 2-1 SU/ATS. The HT is 3-0 SU/ATS in this series (‘96, ‘02 and ‘06). This is UI’s home opener in the Kibbie Dome, which is in stark contrast from the sunshine and grass field of the NFL’s Qualcomm Stadium that the Aztecs call home. The Vandals are hosting just their 3rd non-conf FBS game in the L/5Y having gone 0-2 SU/ATS in such a matchup with losses to NI in ‘07 (42-35, -3) and WM in ‘08 (51-28, +8). UI is on a 6-2 ATS run after ending a 4-18 ATS skid from mid-’06 thru mid-’08 and the Vandals are on a current 3-0 ATS run at home. SDSt has the edge on off (#92-107), def (#95-112) and ST (#67-111). LY SDSt led 38-3 after 3Q outgaining UI 603-351 in a 45-17 win (-11’). SDSt QB Lindley hit 24-38 for 433 yds and 4 TD and the Aztecs picked off three passes. SDSt is just 5-25 SU on the road (lost L/8) and 0-3 ATS as an AF over 6 yrs. The Aztecs haven’t been an AF S/‘07 and haven’t covered as one S/‘03. Idaho has a trip to NI on deck while SDSt has its MWC opener at Air Force up next.
Nevada at Colorado State
Play: Nevada -3
Nevada Over COLORADO ST - CSU leads the series 8-1 SU but is 3-5 ATS. The Rams won all 8 meetings prior to their 28-10 loss (+3) in Reno in ‘06 in the last meeting. UN has the edge on off (#28-98) but CSU has the edge on ST (#103-115). Nevada’s “pistol” offense is capable of piling up lots of yds and pts and features a dual-threat QB, ‘08 WAC Off POY Kaepernick and two RB’s (Taua and Lippincott) who have led the WAC in rushing in each of the L/2Y. UN is coming fresh off a bye, however, following a 35-0 shutout loss in the season opener at Notre Dame where the Wolf Pack suffered just its second shutout loss in 343 gms (S/’80). UN was dead last in the NCAA pass D in ‘08 allowing 312 ypg and the Irish threw for 322 yds and 4 TD, incl strikes of 70 and 88 yds. UN is looking to rebound from an 0-4 ATS skid and has lost 3 of its L/4 gms SU. CSU started its season off with a bang defeating in-state rival Colo 23-17 (+10) in Boulder marking the first time the Rams won a game there in 23 yrs, but CSU needed a 4Q TD to squeak past FCS Weber St LW by 1 (24-23). The Rams have won 5 consec gms for the first time S/’02 and are 6-2 in gms decided by one score or less (8 pts) under 2nd yr HC Fairchild. CSU is on a 5-1 ATS run going 4-2 SU during that stretch. UN has a home game with Missouri on deck while CSU has its MWC opener at BYU up next.
SMU at Washington St
Play: SMU -6
Smu Over WASH ST - 1st meeting. Wash St has won 11 straight vs non-conf teams in Pullman by an avg of 25 ppg. These two combined for a 1-22 record vs FBS teams in ‘08 but both are much improved. Only 1 of Wash St’s losses was by less than 25 while SMU had 4 losses by 7 or less and almost beat Houston and Tulsa in CUSA play, but blew late leads. The Mustangs are off a huge road win at UAB (4H LPS Winner) that snapped a 21 game losing streak to FBS schools. SMU jumped out to a 28-7 1H lead and withstood a furious Blazer rally stopping a 2pt conv with :13 left for a 35-33 win. The Mustangs ended up being outgained slightly (448-437) but forced 5 Blazer TO’s. SMU now has 9 int in 2 games (8 all of LY). QB Mitchell threw for 353 (60%) and 3 TD, but did throw 2 int. WSU fell to Hawaii 38-20 in a “neutral” game (Seattle). The Cougs trailed 35-6 at the half and were outgained 626-403 on the night. The lone bright spot for the Cougars was RB Montgomery who rushed for 118 (6.9). This is the 2nd of B2B road games for the Mustangs who are an AF for just the 3rd time S/‘03, but they do have a bye on deck. WSU has mighty USC on deck, so they see this as their best chance for an early season win. WSU all’d 489 pass yds to a similar Run n’ Shoot attack LW, and SMU now has some swagger, so expect Wazzou’s losing woes to continue.
Connecticut at Baylor
Play: Baylor -10
BAYLOR Over Connecticut - LY QB Griffin (PS#34) made his 1st road start on a Fri Night game in a cross country trip to Conn and did well (4 ttl TD) as Baylor (+13) led 28-24 mid-4Q and had a 377-340 yard edge. This time Griffin is exp and Baylor has 16 ret sts, is off a bye and catches UC in an unusual trip to Texas (lost to SMU 30-31 ‘89). LW UC gave up 12 4Q pts incl a GW safety with 1:32 left in their 12-10 loss to NC. The Huskies lost their QB Frazer 3Q with a knee injury and UC may be playing w/o their top LB Lutrus (check status). The UC def is all’g 258 ypg and will have to carry the team as the new offense develops. After rushing for 259 (5.3) in Wk 1 UC ran for 72 (2.1) LW. Baylor had a 17 pt 3Q lead and held on to defeat Wake on the road 24-21 (+2’) in Wk 1 outgaining the Deacons 366-269. Griffin threw for 136 (63%) with a 1-0 ratio and rushed for 41 (3.2) while RB Finley had 91 yds (6.5). Although nearly even on def (UC #41-45), Baylor has the off edge (#42-96) as well on ST’s (#15-69). Baylor returns three 1st Tm B12 defenders and 8 starters on defense. Conn is 1-7 as an AD and 0-4 SU/ATS traveling to the deep south being outscored 18 ppg. This is Baylor’s home opener (4-0 as HF) so the crowd will be excited as the Bears look to avenge LY’s loss.
Bowling Green at Marshall
Play: Marshall +3
MARSHALL Over Bowling Green - Marshall was 4-2 vs BG in MAC play from (‘97-’04). BG is 19-8 after a loss. Marshall has 16 ret sts and has bowl aspirations and BG has exceeded expectations early as they have just 10 ret sts and a new HC. This is in the 2nd straight AG for BG, as the Falcons are off a strong showing at Mizzou. BG led most of the game before the Tigers scored 14 unanswered in the 4Q to get a 27-20 win. BG was only outgained 353-320 by a Mizzou tm that put up 442 yds and 37 pts vs Illinois in the opener. BG Sr QB Sheehan is avg 273 ypg (68%) with a 3-1 ratio and RB Geter has 148 (5.1). MU hung tough in the 1Q vs 14th ranked VTech, but the Herd was outscored 28-7 in the 2Q and lost 52-10. MU allowed a school-record 444 yds on the ground (8.4) and were outgained 605-252. The lone bright spot for the Herd was RB Darius Marshall who returned from a 1 game suspension and rushed for 109 (6.4), incl a 61 yd TD jaunt. BG has a huge home game vs a ranked Boise squad on deck and Marshall needs a win before heading into conf play (Memphis), so we like a Marshall squad that is 8-2-1 as a home dog since 1999.
Florida St at BYU
Play: BYU -7
BYU Over Florida St - These 2 have met twice, both BYU losses in ssn opening Pigskin Classics in ‘91 and ’00. BYU is 5-3 SU hosting BCS teams inc winning the L/2 by a combined 79-7. FSU is making a rare trip into altitude coming from sea level and traveling almost 2,100 miles. They have just 5 starters back on D and only 3 scholarship Sr’s on off. FSU had a short week LW and it showed as they barely got by JSU. QB Ponder is avg 309 ypg (61%) with a 2-1 ratio. RB Ty Jones has 99 rush yds (4.5). This is BYU’s first home game and they already have 2 wins under their belts and have won 18 straight home games. BYU had a 245-164 yd edge 1H vs then-#3 Okla when Bradford was healthy. QB Hall is avg a solid 319 ypg (71%) with a 4-3 ratio. RB Kariya has 105 rush yds (3.6). BYU has already beaten Oklahoma and is confident with QB Hall while FSU is coming off a game vs FCS Jax St in which they trailed until in the 4Q.
FAU at South Carolina
Play: FAU +21
Florida Atl (+) Over S CAROLINA - This is a top situational game as FAU is coming off a bye while SC is between SEC games. SC also has a short week ahead as it plays Ole Miss Thursday. SC is 7-3 as a HF and 7-3 as a DD HF and this is their home opener. FAU usually uses these games (0-3 vs SEC avg loss 35 ppg) getting a lot of players action vs a quality team which helps them in conference play, but Schnellenberger talked tough about beating Texas (backfired) and may want a signature win. In their only meeting in ‘06 SC won 45-6 (-28’). SC has wins by just 10, 9, 7, 14, and 10 vs non-BCS foes in Sept and that includes 2 vs FCS Wofford. LW SC allowed 41 pts vs GA, the most since 2006, but held the advantage in yds 427-308 and FD 26-16. SC had a game winning pass broken up at the 7 with :22 left. FAU is worth the look with the generous points here.
Georgia at Arkansas
Play: Arkansas -1
ARKANSAS Over Georgia - UGA is 30-5 on opponents home fields under Richt. In the last meeting in ‘05, UGA pulled out a 23-20 win in Athens but Ark covered easily as 19’ pt dogs. Georgia is 8-1 SU vs the Hogs. Ark is 10-6 ATS in SEC openers but LY was crushed 49-14 by Alabama as a 9 pt HD and is now 2-6 SU in them. UGA is 3-6-1 as an AF while Petrino has won his last 3 as a HD with 2 outright upsets incl LSU LY. Arkansas is the fresher squad off a FCS foe and a bye and UGA battled #9 OSU on the road and just battled for a 41-37 win over SC in their home opener LW and travels again. Ark HC Petrino admitted that his team had already spent time preparing for this gm in Aug prior to their opener vs Missouri St. Ark QB’s Mallett and Wilson set a school single gm record with 447 pass yds in their 48-10 win over Missouri St and Petrino used top RB Smith sparingly (4 carries, 43 yd) to keep him fresh for SEC action. UGA QB Cox is avg 182 ypg (59%) with a 3-2 ratio and RB Samuel has 152 (4.3).
Texas-El Paso at New Mexico St
Play: Texas-El Paso -13.5
Utep Over NEW MEXICO ST - UTEP leads the “Battle of I-10” series 49-35-2 as these two interstate rivals are just 45 miles apart. These 2 have combined to avg 63 ppg in the L/9 with the L/3 decided by 6 pts or less. The HT in this series is 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS, however, the visitor has covered each of the L/4 gms. NMSt has won the L/2 gms outright as a 7-pt dog in both ‘07 (44-34) and ‘08 (34-33). NMSt is on a 2-6 ATS skid and is 8-19 (just 4-19 vs FBS teams) SU and 8-15 ATS S/’07. UTEP has the edge on off (#78-120), def (#104-117) and ST (#92-100). The Miners are on a 3-1 ATS run in road openers but 0-5 ATS as an AF S/’05 with 4 outright losses. NMSt has another rivalry game on deck with a trip to in-state foe New Mexico while UTEP travels to Texas next week.
Boston College at Clemson
Play: Clemson -6.5
CLEMSON Over Boston College - BC had won 5 in a row in this series but Spiller had a schl rec (for RB) 105 yds rec and then-interim HC Swinney got his 1st win 27-21 (+3’) on the road. This matchup has been decided by a ttl of 13 pts the L4Y. In last trip here, #18 BC upset #15 CU 20-17 on a 43 yd TD pass w/1:43 left, stealing the Atl Div Title. BC has a 2 QB’s still trying to determine a starter and they’re making their 1st road trip to a very hostile place. BC is 11-2 ATS as an AD but does have their 3rd HC in 4Y. BC posted their 2nd str lopsided win LW vs a non-BCS. QB’s Shinskie and Tuggle have comb for 389 yds (43%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Harris has rushed for 181 (5.3). CU is 4-11 ATS as an ACC HF. LW WR Ford and RB Spiller showed their blazing spd after GT had taken a 24-0 lead thanks to 2 ST’s scores as Spiller took off for a 63 yd TD pass and Ford went 77 yds for a TD (both track tm). QB Parker is avg 210 ypg (47%) with a 5-2 ratio. RB Spiller has 99 rush yds (4.1) and 4 rec (17.3) despite missing most of the opener. WR Ford has 8 rec (22.4).
Tony George
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Ball St vs. Army
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Ball States first road game, they are deplorable on offense have a tough time stopping the run. Army lost to Duke last week, and I was on them, but ride them again here as their triple option attack should slice and dice Ball State all day long. 300+ yards of rushing would not surprise me here. Ball States best RB managed 21 yards against New Hampshire..no WAY they can trade points with a pissed off Army bunch here on the road.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play 1 Unit on Army.
RAS
AZ St. UNDER 52' ... 2 Units
Bama UNDER 52 ... 1
Rutgers ... UNDER 52 ... 1
TA&M OVER 57' ... 1
Cinn OVER 55 ... 1 Unit
Mike Lineback
Tennessee/Florida Over
Purelock
Colorado State +3
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
ARMY (-7.0) 28 Ball St. 10
Army is an underrated team and I made the Black Knights a Strong Opinion last week against Duke, a game that they lost 19-35. The reason that I didn't make Army a Best Bet in that game was my concern that Duke's good run defense would limit the success of Army's option running attack and force the Cadets to throw the ball, which they don't do well. That was exactly what played out, as Army's 274 rushing yards at 4.7 yards per rushing play wasn't quite good enough to give them the lead late in the game and the Knights turned to the air and turned a 13-21 deficit into a 13-35 deficit when consecutive passes were intercepted and returned for Duke touchdowns with under 2 minutes left in the game. Army did march down the field and score with time running out to make the final 19-35 and they actually out-gained the Blue Devils 385 yards at 4.8 yards per lay to 238 yards at 4.3 yppl (but were -2 in turnover margin). The reason I'm not afraid of making Army a Best Bet this week is because Ball State has a worse than average run defense that has allowed an average of 219 yards at 5.1 yards per rushing play to North Texas and New Hampshire, which are about average running teams. Army has averaged 5.9 yprp against two teams that would allow a combined 5.0 yprp to an average team, so the Cadets should be able to run on Ball State. Army also has a good defense that has limited Eastern Michigan and Duke to just 4.0 yppl (those teams would combine to average 4.6 yppl against an average defense). Ball State has one good player on offense in RB MiQuale Lewis, but Lewis' numbers are down (just 4.3 ypr) with just 1 experienced offensive linemen and because opponents don't respect the passing of freshman Kelly Page, who has connected on just 44% of his passes for a horrible 3.7 yards per pass attempt and 2.9 yards per pass play. Army shouldn't have any problem shutting down that attack just as North Texas and New Hampshire did. In their two games Ball State has been out-gained by an average of 3.7 yppl to 5.4 yppl against a schedule that is about 11 points worse than average. Army, meanwhile, has out-gained Eastern Michigan and Duke (schedule that is 10 points worse than average) by an average of 5.2 yppl to 4.0 yppl. My ratings favor Army by 10 1/2 points in this game and using this year's games only would favor the Cadets by 21 points. The reason for the play is a very strong 79-17-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that was a very profitable 7-1 for me last season. I'll take Army in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars from -9 1/2 to -11.
3 Star Selection
BYU (-7.5) 34 Florida St. 17
BYU beat Oklahoma 14-13 in their opener as a 22 1/2 point dog and they were playing the Sooners even before Sam Bradford was hurt, so there was nothing fluky about that win. In fact, the Cougars should have won by more given that quarterback Max Hall averaged 7.4 yards per pass play and the offense averaged 5.4 yards per play as a unit (4 turnovers kept them from scoring more). The Cougars avoided a letdown and beat the crap out of Tulane 54-3 in a game in which they out-gained the Hurricane 532 yards at 7.0 yppl to 162 yards at 3.1 yppl. Hall should have no trouble exploiting a Florida State secondary that has been burned numerous times in 2 games by long pass plays. The Seminoles have allowed 18.2 yards per catch in two games, which is a bad omen for the big arm of Hall. I actually still rate Florida State's pass defense as better than average even though they've given up 8.0 yards per pass play in 2 games, as it's not likely that they'll continue to give up 18 ypc going forward. Even with that concession I still project Hall to average over 8 yppp and for the Cougars to rack up over 400 yard at 6.3 yppl in this game. Everyone expected BYU to be good on offense, but they've also been great defensively after a down year last season in which they were slightly worse than average. Bronco Mendenhall's defense has never been mediocre in consecutive years and he's done his magic again this year, as the Cougars held Oklahoma's explosive offense to just 4.7 yppl and shut down a pretty good Tulane attack last week (3.1 yppl). Even Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford was struggling against BYU's defense, as he averaged just 6.9 yards per attempt before getting injured (he averaged 9.8 ypa last year). Florida State has been mediocre offensively in two games, averaging 6.1 yppl against Miami and Jacksonville State, who would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack. The Seminoles' rushing attack has been bad (just 4.4 yards per rushing play) and quarterback Christian Ponder hasn't proven to be anything more than just average so far this season after being horrible last year (4.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average QB). My ratings favor BYU by anywhere from 10 to 14 points depending on how much slack I cut Florida State on their pass defense, so the line is favorable even if the Seminoles have a better than average pass defense despite allowing 8.0 yppp in their first two games. Aside from the line value, BYU applies to a very good 108-39-1 ATS momentum situation and this a tough trip for Florida State, who has to travel over 2000 miles and play in high altitude for the first time. I'll take BYU in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 or less and for 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10.
Strong Opinion
Arizona 21 IOWA (-5.0) 20
Arizona has won their first two games by respectable margins of 19-6 over Central Michigan and by 34-17 over Northern Arizona, but the Wildcats have been much more impressive than those scores indicate. The Wildcats have out-gained their opponents by an average of 6.7 yards per play to just 4.1 yppl and Central Michigan went on to win 29-27 at Michigan State last week after struggling to move the ball against Arizona's tough defense (just 3.6 yppl). The Wildcats' defense should limit a mediocre Iowa attack that's averaged a modest 5.5 yppl in games against Northern Iowa and Iowa State. Iowa struggled to beat Northern Iowa in their opener and their 35-3 win last week at Iowa State was largely due to a +4 in turnover margin (although the Hawkeyes did out-gain ISU 5.9 yppl to 4.7 yppl, which would normally result in a 10 to 14 point win). My ratings favor Iowa by just 4 points in this game and Arizona applies to a solid 72-26 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Iowa is just 1-11 ATS the last few years after consecutive wins. I'll consider Arizona a Strong Opinion at +4 or more and I'd take the Wildcats in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Strong Opinion
Bowling Green (-2.5) 28 MARSHALL 20
Bowling Green has played well in 2 games under new coach Dave Clawson, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons' defense was solid last year and wasn't expected to be so with just 3 returning starters on that side of the ball, but that inexperienced unit yielded just 4.8 yards per play last week in a near upset of a good Missouri team and they gave up just 4.7 yppl in an upset of Troy in week 1. That unit isn't going to be quite as good without leading tackler SS P.J. Mahone, who has been suspended indefinitely, but they should be good enough to limit a sub-par Marshall offense that has averaged just 4.8 yppl in their first two games against Southern Illinois and Virginia Tech (those teams would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack). Bowling Green is equally challenged offensively, but Marshall's defense gave up 4.7 yppl and 28 points to a bad Southern Illinois attack in week 1 (the Salukis would average about 4.2 yppl on the road against an average Division 1A team) and were stampeded by Virginia Tech last week (allowed 467 rushing yards at 10.2 yards per rushing play and 613 total yards at 9.0 yppl). Bowling Green applies to a solid 93-40-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Falcons have now covered the spread in 11 consecutive road games. I'll consider Bowling Green a Strong Opinion at -3 or better.
Indian Cowboy
6 Unit Play. Florida Gators -29.5 over the Tennessee Volunteers
I love me some Gator. And, Tennessee is Gator bait this weekend. I am sick and tired of hearing Lane Kiffin talk. He has talked so much trash. The comments stating that they will be singing Rocky Top once they beat Florida is playing over and over again in the Florida locker room I’m sure. Urban will get his boys more than ready to play for this SEC clash. What is humorous is why would Kiffin run his mouth against the defending national champs and as he admittedly stated the greatest college football quarterback and team of all time? If Tennessee struggled against the UCLA defense of the Pac-10, would they not struggle like hell against the Florida Gators? If the Vols had struggling scoring points and matching the line strength of the Bruins, would they not struggle against the speed and power of the line against the Gators? If the Gators defeated this team by 24 points on the road, can they not certainly defeat this team by 30 points at home - in a nationally televised game where the Gators will be amped to shut up Kiffin and company up for good? Also, Urban knows the spread. You better believe he does. I expect Florida to treat the Vols no differently than Troy. Expect the Gators to score, keep scoring, and then keep scoring some more. Granted, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tennessee covers the first half line, but I expect the Gators to open it up in the second half. The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Welcome to the SEC Mr. Kiffin. Enjoy singing Rocky Top on the bus ride back as your Vols will be 1-2 to start the year and 0-1 in conference play. Don't worry, I know of at least 3 other coaches who want to whoop your behind befor the season is done - Alabama (because you stole Saban's key recruiter), UGA (because you tried to steal one of their top coaches) and South Carolina (and you went after Spurreri's brother-in-law).
4 Unit Play. Over 53.5 West Virginia @ Auburn Tigers
Auburn's offense has done some damage in the first two games. They certainly opened a can of whoop-a$$ on Mississippi State. Give Coach Chizik some credit, he has them playing well and unlike Kiffin, he has temporarily silenced his crtics at Aubur. He is also covering spreads for them which I'm sure they appreciate. Auburn is interested in one thing right now - winning and winning big. They have a coach that will continue to have a chip on his shoulder because many Auburn faithful believe he can't coach. After all, he stunk at Iowa State prior to arriving at Auburn. He needs to prove many people wrong and make those who have showed faith in him look good. West Virginia of course is no slouch and this team has put up back to back 30 point games. I expect this game to be high scoring as the Over is 5-0 for the Mountaineers as a dog by this margin, the Over is 4-0 for the Tigers against the Big East - and the over is 4-1 for the Mountaineers against the SEC.
4 Unit Play. Over 53.5 Georgia Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks
With 65% of the public on Georgia, I expect the Razorbacks to be very game in a near pick-em. The line is set for a reason and this is a huge game for Arkansas and their coaching staff. The Razorbacks are looking to improve from last year’s disappointing performance and beating Georgia at home would go a long way for the program. Georgia comes off an emotional win over South Carolina. Georgia played poorly in their first road game at Oklahoma State so I expect them to do better here and at the same time, I expect the Razorbacks to be very game. The Over is 5-0-1 for the Bulldogs on a short spread such as this on the road, the Over is 4-0 for the Razorbacks as a home favorite of late and the Over is 7-3 for Arkansas in their last 10 conference games.
4 Unit Play. Take Washington +19.5 over Southern Cal
I'll keep this write-up brief. Southern Cal has some quarterback issues as to who is starting this week. Also, I like SC to have a bit of a let down after their huge win over Ohio State and this seems like a solid let down spot on the road. Washington is not a joke this year as they lost by 8 to LSU in a similar game where the spread was roughly the same (+18). Washington remembers the 52-0 dubbing they took on the road last year and will be looking to this game for some revenge. I like Washington to hang tough here as they likely lose this game by 10-12 points as I expect this game to play very similar to the LSU game. Besides, I think Jake Locker is a stud and one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country as I expect him to shine against quality competition and while the cameras are rolling.
Vegas Sports Informer
3 Unit Play. Take Syracuse +3 over Northwestern
The “Cuse” took on two Big 10 teams the last two weeks and so far they have 2 straight covers. I believe Minnesota and Penn St are better teams than Northwestern so that makes me like Syracuse. The defense of Syracuse has been surprising and if the “D” can keep them in the game the home team should win this. Northwestern is 2-9 ATS in the month of September and 6-20 ATS following a SU win.
2 Unit Play. Take Iowa -4½ over Arizona
Arizona struggles against Big 10 teams and the last time they faced a Big 10 on the road Purdue beat them badly (59-7). Iowa is coming off a road win against Iowa St and Iowa played much better than their week one game against N. Iowa. Arizona St is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Big 10 teams. Iowa is 30-14 ATS in their last 44 home games.
2 Unit Play. Take Under 51 Nebraska at Virginia Tech
We like this game going under just because it will be played in Blacksburgh and the crowd in Blacksburgh will be hostile. Virginia Tech is 4-13 O/U in their last 17 home games.
5 Unit Play. Take Auburn -7 over West Virginia
(Game of the Week) Both Auburns running backs (McCalebb and Tate) have had great success rushing the ball this season and Saturday night they should have no trouble with the Mountaineers defense. West Virginia defense has given up 20ppg and again if they can’t tackle the run game of the Tigers this game could get out of hand quickly. West Virginia is 3-7 ATS following a SU win.
3 Unit Play. Take Over 52 Tennessee at Florida
Florida has had this game circled for a while and the Florida Gators could hit the total by themselves. Florida first two games the Gators have outscored their opponents 118-9 and granted they played two small schools but this shows me that running up a score could be an issue against the Tennessee defense. Florida is 20-8 O/U in their last 28 games and again the Gators will run up this score.
4 Unit Play. Take Cincinnati PK Oregon St
Was not a fan on how the Oregon St. Beavers played against UNLV last week! The Beavers defense didn’t show me anything against UNLV and now the Beavers have to prepare for Cincinnati’s QB Tony Pike. Pike is a much better QB then anything UNLV has on their QB roster. Pike picks apart the defense of the Beavers and watch out for Cincinnati’s defense they have only given up 18 points in two games.
LARRY NESS
Legend - Oregon State
Insider - Auburn
RatedPicks
3 Units - BYU -6.5 vs Florida State
2 Units - Ohio State -21 vs Toledo
2 Units - California -14 vs Minnesota
2 Units - Oklahoma -14.5 vs Tulsa
Maddux Sports
3 units on Pittsburgh -7
3 units on Boston College +7
3 units on Buffalo +4
4 units on BYU -7 -120
5 units on Arkansas -1
3 units on Oregon State +1
Wunderdog
Eastern Michigan at Michigan
3 units on Michigan -24
As we all know, Michigan had a very disappointing year a season ago, but Rich Rodriguez has been known for some big turnarounds when he reaches his second season. After taking out a powerful Notre Dame last week, optimism is running high. Often these are good fade situations for a big favorite off an important win. But not in this case. I think Michigan is motivated and will deliver once again here. The biggest change at Michigan is where they thought they'd be hurting and that is at the QB position. The difference is a phenom named Tate Forcier. Forcier was highly touted out of high school where he completed over 70% of his passes, but stepping up the way he did as a freshman and leading his team for a game-winning score against a national powerhouse shows they have a gem. Forcier picked apart a great Notre Dame defense going 23-33 and 240 yards. The only question to be answered in this one is not if Michigan can cover the big number against a lowly cross-town rival, but will they show up after a big emotional win? After last season's humiliation, this team has a BCS Bowl mindset and won't be taking the week off. A peek at the last four years says a letdown is not coming as Michigan is a perfect 4-0 after Notre Dame including upset wins vs. Wisconsin and Penn State over that span. Do you think those are games they had to show up for because they were big games? Then how about four years ago when after Notre Dame they were a prohibitive four TD favorite against, guess who? Eastern Michigan. The final score was Michigan 55 - E. Michigan 0. Enough said. Michigan rolls here.
Boston College at Clemson
3 units Boston College +7
This is an interesting battle and I like how these teams have been treated in the minds of the public and press over the years. Almost each and every year Clemson is deemed an ACC powerhouse. Yet by the end of the season, we seem to always be reading about how they underachieved. Boston College never gets the top billing, but year after year they seem to rise above expectations of the press and public, and finish under the radar. They then go on and in business-like fashion, win their Bowl game - something they have done in eight of the last nine years. Clemson had a big revenge game last week vs. Georgia Tech and before fans were comfortable in their seats, Tech was up 24-0. Clemson made a nice comeback, but after a 24-0 start, I think Tech got back on their heels a bit and wound up in a dog fight. In the end, Clemson lost and I don't think they are in a great spot here emotionally. Tack on the fact that this team is still learning under a new head coach and new quarterback, and laying a touchdown in a conference game is asking a lot. The Tigers are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite in conference games. Boston College has long been considered the dog in this series vs. Clemson, yet the Eagles own a 5-1 mark lifetime and are 3-0 ATS on the road. Boston College is on the over-achiever list again this year and that's fine by me. I'll take BC and the points here.
Ball State at Army
4 units Ball State +8.5
When you see an Army team as a TD+ favorite you certainly should take a close hard look at the game. This team was once a national power, but the last decade of Army football sure hasn't looked pretty. Since the turn of the century, covering nine seasons, Army owns a 20-85 straight-up record, winning just 19% of their football games this decade. During the course of those nine seasons, the Black Knights have never had a season where they won more than four games. Over the same period, they have been listed as a favorite just 10 times. If you exclude their game vs. Navy, where anything can happen, they are just 2-7 ATS as a favorite. And, when they have been favored by two points or more they are just 1-7 ATS, having lost straight up in five of those eight games. Those straight-up losses include one as a 15.5 point favorite and another as a 10 point favorite. The bottom line is that this team giving points, especially in this range, simply makes no sense. Ball State lost a lot of firepower from last year and has struggled, but what they do have is experience defending the triple option. They played Navy and beat them and their triple option each of the last two years. Army does not run it nearly as cleanly or as successfully (four turnovers did them in against Duke last week). I expect more of the same here and will back Ball State in this one.
Alabama Birmingham at Troy
4 units Alabama Birmingham +7
This is a big game for both of these teams, but Troy may have their eyes on the week ahead where they square off in a much more important battle with expected top threat in the Sun Belt - Arkansas State. UAB suffered a devastating unexpected loss against lowly SMU a week ago, and will be ready to leave those bad feelings on the field here against the men from Troy. The Blazers self-destructed vs. the Mustangs, commiting five costly turnovers. The Blazers have a superior balanced offense that went for over 200 yards on the ground and through the air. Troy was beat-up badly last week in the swamp, as expected, by the Gators 56-6. That's always deflating despite the fact it was expected. Troy also lost a very winnable game at Bowling Green. Their losses in the defensive secondary have been exploited in each of the first two weeks and UAB has the personnel to do it again. UAB is 44-26 as an underdog over the past fifteen years and Troy is 0-6 ATS following the last six times they were held under a touchdown last game. UAB has 18 returning starters compared to just 12 for Troy. I'll go with the better team here getting points on the road, as UAB gets the nod.
U S C at Washington
4 units Washington +20
Last week was a stiff challenge for USC heading into the tough environment at Ohio State with a freshman QB. They came away proving once again that they are an extremely tough team, regardless of the situation. Matt Barkley may be a freshman but he is a senior when it comes to raw talent and leadership. He proved this by taking the Trojans down the field for the winning TD on their last drive. The problem this week is that he isn't likely to play. If he does, he's going to be hobbled with his shoulder injury and coming off very little if any practice. Without him, the Trojans head to Washington, a horrible team that is down and out. While USC wins the big games, these are the games in which they struggle. Coming off a big emotional win in a huge game, this is the perfect spot for a let down. A look at the Pete Carroll-era shows the no-show Trojans just 1-5 ATS as a conference road favorite of 14+ and when taking to the road for the second straight week, they are just 2-7 ATS. In their last seven Pac-10 road openers, they are 1-6 ATS. While the Trojans have the talent to easily out-point the Huskies, history shows us that talent takes a snooze when the challenge and resistence is minimal. I'm taking the points here and going with Washington.
San Diego State at Idaho
3 units Idaho +3.5
Both of these teams are down statistically on both sides of the ball with ranks around the No. 100 mark, so no inherent advantage from either side there. The big difference lies in the venue. San Diego State has been put in the favorite role here and I'm not sure how they earned that right. But I will gladly exploit it. The Aztecs are far removed from the day Marshall Faulk was King of College Football. They are just 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a win. This is a team that has won all of two games in the last 20 they have ventured out on the road to play, and they have covered just four of them. They have only been installed as a road favorite three times in the last six years, having come up empty in all three. They have not covered a game as road chalk since 2003! Meanwhile, the Vandals have been vandalizing the books, taking their last three at home for the money - all three times as a dog. They will also have the sweet essence of revenge on their minds for a 45-17 pasting they took at San Diego State a year ago. The Aztecs are also just 8-21 ATS after allowing less than 20 in their last game, showing the inconsistency they have had over the years. I'm going with the live home dog here.
Florida State at B Y U
4 units B Y U -8
My how things have changed! It wasn't long ago that Bowden's crew was winning 10+ games a year without a blink. That was then, this is now. The Seminoles come off a colossal struggle at home vs. Jacksonville State, where they needed a late score to escape the embarassment as a 34 point favorite. The mighty have fallen. If you need more proof, look at the fac that Bowden must take the troops on the road as a TD+ dog vs. a Mountain West team. Well it is the changing of the guard and it is now BYU with the talent and the special QB and a rugged defense that used to belong to the Noles. BYU was left standing outside the BCS party after a season-ending loss to Utah last year. They have a lot of the same cast returning and served notice in Norman in week one, handing the Sooners a blow. With a big win here, BYU will once again be in the BCS talk, so expect them to come out with all barrels blazing at home for this one. Florida State once cruised through these types of games, but not anymore as Bowden's boys are now just 1-6 ATS in non-confrence underdogs in their last seven on the road. BYU moves into the national spotlight with a convincing win and cover here.
Ben Burns
Situational GAME OF THE MONTH!
I'm taking the points with MINNESOTA. These teams have been good to me so far this season, as I've gone 3-0 ATS in their games. In Week 1, I played on California and the Golden Bears rewarded me with a 52-13 thrashing of Maryland. The same week, I successfully played against Minnesota. The Gophers managed to eke out a SU win (at Syracuse) but weren't able to cover as road favorites. Last week, I didn't touch California's game (Bears won 59-7 as -34 point favorites vs. Eastern Wash.) but I did successfully play on the Gophers, who were opening their new stadium vs. Air Force. The Gophers fell behind early but rallied to take a 20-10 lead, eventually holding on for a 20-13 win and cover. Note that victory came against an Air Force team which is always tough to prepare for and which was coming off a blowout victory. I feel that this will be a good spot to back the Gophers again. While Minnesota has now been tested twice, California has yet to play a close game. Yes, that tells us that the Bears are a dangerous team. However, they may be starting to pat themselves on the back a bit and there's a lot to be said for being "battle tested." Last week's Ohio State/USC game provides an example. The Trojans were off a blowout win. The Buckeyes also won. However, their victory was a hard-fought one. Those results seemingly worked in Ohio State's favor. While the Buckeyes still lost the game, they came out with more energy which helped lead to them covering the spread. I used the USC/Ohio State game as an example, as it also featured a Pac-10 team traveling across the country to take on a Big-10 opponent. Like the Trojans last week, the Bears will be playing their first road game of the season. Note that Bears QB Kevin Riley didn't play particularly well on the road last season. In fact, the Bears haven't been a good road team, period. Over their last 20 road games, they've gone just 7-13 SU and 6-13-1 ATS. That includes a 1-6 ATS (2-5 SU!) mark the last seven times that they were laying points on the road. Looking back further and we find them at just 10-24-1 ATS their last 35 in the road favorite role. Speaking of the Trojans, the Bears face them in two more weeks, on October 3rd. Naturally, that's their biggest game of the season. First, they travel to Oregon, on Sept. 26, to play their Pac-10 Opener, another very important game. Off a couple of blowout victories, playing their first road game and with those two critical conference games on deck, I feel that it may be easy for the Bears to get caught looking ahead. It should also be noted that that this game kicks-of at noon EST, which is only 9:00am PST for the West Coast based Bears. The Gophers are 9-5-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were getting points, going 5-2-1 ATS as underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 point range. This is a huge game for them and I expect them to give the Bears all they can handle.
College Computer Crusher
Nebraska +5
Boston College +7
BYU -7.5