Ethan Law
SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS: (FINAL)
3% OREGON STATE +1 (NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK)
2% TEMPLE +30
2% COLORADO -6.5
2% FLORIDA STATE +8
2% ARIZONA STATE -20 (ADDED)
2% OKLAHOMA -18 (ADDED)
OPINION SELECTIONS: FLORIDA STATE +$280
SUMMARY OF MANHATTAN SYNDICATE NCAA SELECTION: (FINAL)
MARSHALL +3
---------------------
THE NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK
CINCINNATI (2-0) at OREGON STATE (2-0)
6:45 EST, Fox Sports Net, Saturday, September 19
Those of you who follow me know I was in Las Vegas last weekend. While I was out there I decided to go check out the Oregon State vs. UNLV game live so if it seems like I know a little too much about this game its only because I personally saw Oregon State play less than 7 days ago. I anticipate this to be one of the more entertaining games to watch this weekend as we have very interesting dichotomy’s here. I am especially curious to see how Cincinnati is able to handle the west coast offense. With that said onto the analysis. It fair to say (like Penn State) were are uncertain exactly how good this Cincinnati (2-0 SU & 1-0 ATS) team is as they have played a pair of very easy games and is rolling. Nobody can knock the success of their head coach Brian Kelly as they rolled to a 10-3 SU & 9-3 ATS 2007 season and topped that last season going 11-3 with a Big East championship. In 2009, though the verdict is still out. Seven (7) starters return on offense, but they lost ten (10) on defense. Meanwhile, Oregon State (2-0 SU & 0-1 ATS) comes home after a scare, a 23-21 win at UNLV. They have their Pac 10 opener on deck against Arizona. Oregon State is also off an impressive 2008 campaign going 9-4 SU & 9-3 ATS behind head coach Mike Riley, with 6 starters back on offense, 3 on defense. Their offense is lead by senior quarterback Sean Canfield: (356 yards, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions) and they use balanced behind sophomore running back Jacquizz Rodgers (269 yards, 6.4 yards per carry). Last season he pounded out 1,253 yards on 4.8 yards per carry. The defense has gotten good practice the last 2 games playing Portland State and UNLV, two teams that run a spread offense, which most Pac 10 teams do.
Now I have search around some of the various forums and read what the public believes about this game. I also got to speak with the director of the sports book operations at Mandalay Bay (if you recall him and I are friends) and we discussed this game on Sunday when the line came out. Simply put guys, this has “trap” written all over it. Almost every forum poster is saying this game is the “lock” of the century, and the books know that the public will flood this game, which is why we have seen such a betting disparity. Indeed, as of this writing, this is the game that has the most lopsided betting on the board with 88% of the wagers placed on Cincinnati. Not surprisingly, the line has moved 2.5 points thus making Oregon State a home underdog. WOW. Obviously the betting public believes that a ranked opponent that has outscored their opposition (Rutgers and Southeast Missouri State) by a combined score of 117-18 can easily manhandle an opponent (that despite also be 2-0) has had a much tougher time needing a Justin Kahut field with seven seconds left to fend off a challenge from UNLV in Las Vegas. With that said, we need to examine the market place as to why there is this public perception. Cincinnati (on paper) looks great. No question about that. However, their power ranking and national ranking is a bit skewed as they played the above mentioned SE Missouri State and Rutgers and neither team is much of an offensive threat. If you read above I mentioned that Cincinnati lost 10 starts on the defensive side of the ball, but that’s not all. They also hired a new defensive coordinator. The problem, is that he switched the team to a new 3-4 defense that has not been tested in the least by the competition they played. Neither the Knights nor the Redhawks have anyone resembling Jacquizz or James Rodgers who have shown to be game-changers whenever they touch the ball. Look for both of them to frustrate a defense that has yet to be truly tested. Considering that the new defensive coordinator comes from Virginia (where they play more vanilla offensive teams) neither Cincinnati or the defensive coordinator has had much of a sniff at Pac 10 offense. We also cannot forget that Oregon State is a team that has won 28 games the past three seasons. They are 15-4 SU and 11-6 ATS at home during that time including wins over USC (twice), California, Utah and Oregon. Are we really getting points here? Really? OSU is a very underrated and dangerous football team…period. We have the added advantage of an east coast team traveling for a late Pacific Time start, the home field advantage, the stronger conference affiliation, and the equally if not more talented team. Oh by the way, the Beavers sport a 15-0 mark SU mark at home against lined non-conference opposition, are 4-1 ATS off a non-conference road win and 6-2 ATS before Arizona. Are we really getting points? See I cannot get over it.
Verdict: Oregon State 34, Cincinnati 28
PLAY 2* UNITS (3%) ON OREGON STATE +1
TEMPLE (0-1) at PENN ST (2-0)
When the schedule came out this summer I somehow tried to convince myself not to play this disaster of a game but here we are on the eve of it and I simply just cannot control myself. Maybe it is the underdog bettor in me or maybe I have lost my touch, but the bottom line here is that we are getting a ridiculous amount of value in this early season contest. As expected the public players are flooding to this match-up despite the incredible line of -30. Indeed, the line in this contest opened at -29.5 and has since moved up to -30 (-30.5 in some shops) as the public is placing their bets at almost a 9-1 clip for the favorite. Does this make sense? Well the answer to that question is yes, as setting the the line in Penn State games at ridiculous numbers has now worked twice (both Penn State SU wins but NOT covers) so the bookmaker is again trying to pull the wool over our eyes. Not so fast. Penn State supporters will certainly point to the fact that Temple has been outscored by a ridiculous margin of 133-3 in the series the last three times these teams met, but that is without a doubt the only reason I could find to support to Penn State argument.
Simply put, we know very little about how good this Penn State team will be this season as they have played two very predictable and mediocre offenses in Akron and Syracuse to start the season, beating the two by a combined score of 59-14. On paper, that looks impressive (if you are a Penn State fan), but the Penn State bettor knows all too well that in both contests they got out to early leads of 31-0 and 28-0 but the back door cover hurt meant a losing ticket when it was all said and done. In both contests, Penn State was virtually unable to get any semblance of a rushing attack (something they will desperately need when they start playing with the big boys next week) with Iowa coming to Happy Valley next week, followed by a trip to Illinois. So how bad has the Penn State ground game been? They managed only 136 rushing yards and a touchdown against Akron and just 78 yards and a score against Syracuse. That’s a pretty bad result considering those teams defensive lines cannot compete with the lines of Big 10 teams. So it is clear, that since this contest is basically like another practice game for Penn State they will want to work primarily on their rushing attack against Temple this week. As I always stress, with more running plays will be less possessions, which means that clock will keep moving, making this a shorter game with fewer opportunities to score, all great for crazy people thinking of taking a team like Temple.
Although Temple is off a disaster of a season-opening loss to Villinova from the FCS ranks, not all is bad for this team. There red shirt junior quarterback Vaughn Charlton (who I had questions about) went 19-of-28 for a career-high 317 yards and two touchdowns although some interceptions were thrown into the mix. What undid Temple was the whopping five (5) turnovers. They did convert on 55.5% of their third downs, and out gained Villinova by 100 yards. So despite the SU loss, we can at least take solice that Temple won that game ITS (in the stats) and if they do not turn the ball over 5 times this week they have a legitimate shot at keeping this one extremely close. Fundamentally, (as stated above) Penn State has been struggling with their rushing attack, and the defensive line is without question the strength of this Temple team so I fully expect them to win a few battles up front. Against Villanova the Temple defense allowed just 64 yards while registering five sacks and 11 tackles for loss. Incredibly, that makes them the No. 1 defense in the nation in those categories (I know its just Villinova) but the point is that this is the best defensive line they have played all season, so look for the Nittany Lion backfield to be penetrated. Situationally, this is also a much better spot for the Owls. They are off a bye and have had 16 days to prepare for this contest. Similar to my week #1 analysis for Navy, Temple players and coaches want to major defining win for this program. Although they will not get it here, they will fight to the end, something that is always good when you are getting 30 points. In contrast, Penn State has a huge revenge game on deck when they host the only team to beat them in the regular season in 2008 (Iowa) next week. Couple the fact that Penn State head coach Joe Paterno would likely not want to do anything to embarrass his former assistant and Temple head coach Al Golden and we have a situational sweep. Oh by the way, Temple is an incredible 24-8 ATS as a road underdog of 30 points or less off a loss take those points and pray! Verdict: Penn State 34, Temple 14
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON TEMPLE +30
WYOMING (1-1) at COLORADO (0-2)
This game is very much an outside the box selection for me given this situational set-up so early on in the season, however it is nevertheless a very good one. Ideally, this is the type of selection I normally play towards the end of the season, given the situational setting of a (must win) for the home team, but I do admit that is it hard to argue with somebody’s opinion that no game is a must win so early in a season. Those of you who have followed me know that I am not a huge fan of “laying” points on a bad team, but here the situation arises where we do have a home favorite that does have some value. The reason for the value is that there should not be a single bettor (I their right mind) that would want to lay points with this Colorado (a team they already had to lay points with and got crushed) team. In their two opening contests (against Colorado State and Toledo) Colorado was completely embarrassed as they fell behind by two touchdowns early each time, and allowed an incredible 92 points combined. WOW. Even more alarming perhaps is the fact that their defense gave up a whopping 624 yards of total offense against Toledo last week on national television. I do however like the fact that the game was on national television, because anybody who saw that drubbing watched how bad Colorado looked.
Despite the blowout situations, an educated bettor learns from the past, analyzes the line and compares those prior fundamental match-ups with what they are facing this week. Both Toledo and Colorado State had experience and depth on the offensive side of the ball as both teams possessed senior quarterbacks and fast, athletic wide receivers who (in a nutshell) were just too much for the very average Colorado secondary. In stark contrast, Wyoming hasn’t much of a semblance of any kind of a passing attack in at least four years. Wyoming (1-1 SU & 0-1 ATS) has a new head coach Dave Christensen, and a very vanilla offense. The 2008 offense was a joke, so Christensen brings in a no-huddle, up-tempo, spread offense, which might be hard as they do not have much experience at quarterback. They rotated quarterbacks Austyn Carta-Samuels (freshman) and junior Robert Benjamin again in last Saturday’s 41-10 home loss to Texas. In that contest they defense gave up 541 yards. Wyoming also had an unimpressive 29-22 win over Weber State, giving up 411 yards (322 passing).
So I was commenting above a bit about the situational set-up for this contest. Well, there are already grumbling's about the future of Colorado Head Coach Dan Hawkins this is as much a “must win” spot as there could be this early. Colorado also has the advantage of having a bye week next week, so they will likely put everything on the line to get a convincing win here, which will basically hit the reset button on their abysmal start thus far. With trips on deck to West Virginia and Texas coming up next, and with three more road games to deal with over the second half of the season, this is simply a do or die situation. Meanwhile for Wyoming, they open their conference schedule next week against UNLV, so there is a look ahead. Fundamentally, the Colorado defensive line should find success against a Cowboy offensive line that has struggled, one that allowed seven sacks in the first two games. Overall, I do not think this game is going to pretty but we should walk away with an SU & ATS win. Verdict: Colorado 34, Wyoming 17
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON COLORADO -6.5
FLORIDA STATE (1-1) at BYU (2-0)
I step in a few times every year to play this Florida State team and this is clearly one of the more ideal settings for that this week. Everybody seems to be asking…what is the deal with Florida State (1-1 SU & 0-1 ATS)? Well the answer is quite simple…nothing really. We are only two games into the season and they still have a potent offense with 8 starters back, led by junior quarterback Christian Ponder (2 touchdowns, 1 interception). They also have the services of a very capable running back in sophomore running Ty Jones and arguably one of the better offensive lines in the nation. They topped 400 yards in the opener, and 402 yards against Jacksonville State. People are looking at the Jacksonville State game as an indicator that this is not the same Bobby Bowdin dangerous team we are accustomed to seeing, but that was a terrible spot for them since they has a top ranked opponent on deck. What has been a little concerning is their defense that gave up 476 yards in a 38-34 loss to rival Miami. However, that was the first game of the season and we are talking about a proud and traditionally strong defense, one that was exceptional last year allowing just 20.8 points per game and one that ranked 13th nationally in total defense. Meanwhile, BYU (2-0 SU & ATS) returns senior quarterback Max Hall (35 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 3,957 yards last fall), who led an offense that was electric, averaging 35 points, 135 yards rushing and 310 passing in 2008. They have two-year starting running back Harvey Unga (1,132 yards) and All-American senior tight end Dennis Pitta (1,083 yards). They certainly have the attention of the public as well as they opened the season with a stunning 14-13 upset of No. 3 Oklahoma, and later destroyed Tulane 54-3. Despite the success all is not right with BYU as this week they have to deal with another offensive line injury, with freshman starting left guard Braden Hansen out 1-3 weeks with a knee injury. The Cougars’ rebuilding offensive line (one starter back) has been adjusting all summer due to multiple injuries and some academic issues, which could spell disaster against the powerful Florida State pass rush.
Having been one of my favorite underdog tams to bet over the last eight season, the reality here is simple, Florida State is extremely dangerous underdog. Reports out of FSU is that Florida State players and coaches feel disrespected that they are a more than a touchdown underdog, even on the road against a top ranked opponent. Lets also be honest with ourselves here, was the Jacksonville State squeaker really all the terrible? How could Florida state possibly been up for that game when they were traveling to play a top 10 team the very next week, having to play a game in terrible weather, and knowing that a win will defiantly put them in the BCS picture (despite the loss to Miami). Meanwhile, the line is clearly artificially inflated as I had it set at -4. What happened is that BYU’s power rating when through the roof after this dismantling of lowly Tulane. Now BYU supporters will quickly point to the Oklahoma win as justification for this high line. But I am going to make a bold statement here, and listen up because it is true. The Florida State Offensive line is three times better than that of Oklahoma’s. Oklahoma came into that contest with a very inexperienced offensive line. Some people also believe the FSU will have trouble against the unbalanced defense of BYU’s 5-man secondary. But I also disagree with that as well, as the speed of the Seminole receivers with neutralize that formation. After all guys, this is still Florida State, a team that has had a top 5 recruiting class each and every year for the past three seasons and a team whos athletes are as good as anyone in the country, including BYU. Look for the Seminoles to pound the ball with their powerful and quick rushing attack to open the lane for the passing game. On defense, I look for them to completely shut down the run which will make BYU one dimensional. Its also going to be very curious to see how BYU reacts to all the attention they are getting as this game will defiantly qualify as one of the most important games in the school’s storied history. The entire nation is watching, which is something FSU is used too, not BYU. From the technical perspective we can take solace in the fact that the Seminoles are 6-0 ATS off non-conference game against a foe off win by 10 or more points, while BYU is 0-10 ATS as a home favorite of 14 or less off two road games. Don’t be surprised if Florida State wins this one outright!
Verdict: BYU 24, Florida State 28
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON FLORIDA STATE +8
OPINION SELECTION ON FLORIDA STATE +$280
THE MANHATTAN SYNDICATE PLAY
Syndicate play: The first and only play the syndicate collectively bet this week in the NCAA was MARSHALL +3! The “Thundering Herd” opened as a 3 point home underdog and line has remained at 3 number despite public sentiment at an 80% clip for Bowling Green. After some considerable discussion the group decided to place a $45,000 wager on Marshall +3. Shortly after the ticket was given to the runner the books adjusted their vig on the contest but to our shock did not move the line.
Ethan’s thoughts: I am happy to report that all three advisors flagged Marshall early in the week including myself. Although it was not one of my TOP selections, I thought that the selection did have some merit as I had it as the third strongest selection on the board. I fought very hard for my top selection (Oregon State) and there was some heated debate about it, but in the end I was overridden due to the fact I was the only adviser who flagged it as a top 3 play. Getting to merit of this selection, I do agree that this a very important game for them especially after last week’s 52-10 embarrassment to Virginia Tech. But in reality, they really had no shot to win that contest, and we all felt they were looking ahead to this very winnable game. Marshall has a very capable and dangerous rushing attack behind running back Darius Marshall who put up impressive numbers (109 yards) against a very stout VirginiaTech defensive unit. That is important as we all felt that Marshall has a unit on unit fundamental match-up advantage over the Bowling Green front seven as they lost their entire defensive line from a year ago. Bowling Green might be in for a surprise considering they have played Troy and Missouri, who possess pass oriented offensive ideologies. Look for the Mean Green to exploit the Bowling Green inexperience on their front seven, which will open up the passing game that is above average but nothing to write home about. This is also not the best situational setting for Bowling Green who is playing their second straight road contest, and has a huge home game against top 10 ranked Boise St. next week.
SYNDICATE PLAY: MARSHALL +3
Chris James Sports
3* BYU -8
3* Air Force -17
2* Va Tech -5
2* Army -8
1* Penn State -29.5
BOB BALFE
Eastern Michigan vs. Michigan
Play: Eastern Michigan +24
Michigan came away with a big win last week in come from behind fashion against Notre Dame. Michigan Freshman QB Tate Forcier burst onto the scene and played a great game getting the win as there was just seconds left on the clock. If they blew out Notre Dame I would say that this team is back on top, but they were seconds away from losing this game. Michigan is a very young team and they should not be over a three TD favorite to anybody. Rich Rodriguez is going to play a bunch of young guys in a tune up game before they get ready for Big Ten play. Eastern Michigan has a good veteran QB in Andy Schmitt and so many players that were overlooked in the recruiting at Michigan. This game will be close. Take Eastern Michigan.
Marc Lawrence
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame
Play: Michigan State +10
The Spartans, our No. 1 College Underdog play this week, is 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six visits to South Bend. In addition, MSU is 5-0 ATS on the road as a favorite or dog of 14 or less points under head coach Mark Dantonio versus a .500 or greater opponent. With the Irish 0-4 SU and ATS in Game Three of season under Charlie Weis, and 0-6 ATS as double-digit home favorites with a win percentage of less than .900 against an opponent off loss, we'll grab the points with the Spartans. Play On: Michigan State
PPP
5% Auburn
5% Army
4% S Miss
4% Baylor
3% Utep
3% Air force
3% Navy
NorthCoast
5* Clemson -7
4* Colorado
4* Nevada
3* Baylor
3* NDame
3* Ark
Nelly's LTS
1* Maryland
1* Syracuse
2* Oklahoma Computer Slam
2* Colorado St.
3* Baylor
Teddy Covers
CWS Under
Northcoast 5* Clemson-7
BEN BURNS
10* MAIN EVENT *8-1 L9 10s!
I'm laying the points with OREGON. The Utes were extremely good to me during the regular season last year and I won big in their outright bowl win vs. Alabama. However, as I pointed out when I successfully played against them a couple of weeks ago, I don't think that this Utah team is as strong as last year's team. Additionally, due to the current 16-game winning streak and that same big win over Alabama, I believe that their lines have been inflated so far this year. Yes, they're 2-0. However, both wins have come against weak teams and they've gone 0-2 ATS. Coach Whittingham said of his team: "We've got our fair share of deficiencies...You name it, we've got to work on it ... We're miles away from having all the answers..." I expect Whittingham's team to see their win streak come to an end on Saturday afternoon. Its true that the Ducks are 0-2 ATS and 1-1 SU. However, that SU loss came on the blue turf of Boise State (not an easy place to play!) and last week's game came vs. what's proving to be a fairly potent Purdue offense which was able to trade points with them. The Ducks, who were ranked #16 entering the season, may have been experiencing a little bit of a letdown after losing the big game vs. Boise, while also probably looking ahead to this week's big clash vs. Utah. Even though it was a tough situational scheduling spot for them, I didn't play against the Ducks last week (I did win with the 'over' in that game) as I believe that they're capable of being a very strong team. The defense was solid in the opening loss to Boise (I won with the 'under' in that one) and the offense got going last week. I expect them to build off that performance with a very strong effort on both sides of the ball. Coach Kelly was quoted as saying: "We have moved on from last week. I am very impressed with the effort and hard work all of these players have put forth. The offense was better this week. We ran the ball, and got a couple of first downs. It's all about the rhythm, and once we get going the only people who can stop us are ourselves." I expect them to carry that rhythm into this game, leading to a convincing win and cover. *10 Main Event
Brandon Lang
20 DIMER - UTAH UTES - Over the last few years this Utah team has been a fantastic underdog, and today I feel they will be good again.
The last 7 times this Utah team has been a dog they have delivered the money 6 of those times and overall, how about an 18-5 run as an underdog since 1999.
Granted, they are 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS failing to cover their opener at home to Utah State, and then a very sluggish and poor effort at San Jose State winning 24-14 but failing to cover the double digit road number. But today they are back in the familiar role of a hunting dog.
This dog finds themselves getting a generous number from an Oregon team that imploded at Boise State and should have lost at home to Purdue, allowing over 350 yards total offense in both games.
You can count on the fact Utah is not going to come in here and lay down, and considering the early struggles of this Ducks team, the value is with the live dog who has shown they can play with anybody.
I am grabbing the Utes this afternoon in Eugene.
20 DIMER - WASHINGTON HUSKIES - As good a spot for the Huskies as you can ask for.
First of all, they catch the Trojans off the monumental win at Ohio State, and now get the Trojans on back-to-back road games which also happens to be their Pac-10 opener, where they have covered just once in their last 7 tries.
Now for the good stuff.
You know ex-offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, who spent 2 years running the Trojans offense knows every single way in which to attack this Trojans defense having faced over the last 2 years everyday.
You know he left with Pete Carroll's blessing, and his knowledge of every single thing USC does is as good an advantage as you can have plus getting close to 20 points at home.
As big a flat spot for the Trojans as they have had for sometime, and if you think for one second Pete Carroll will look to score in the 4th quarter and run up the score against his former coach, well I beg to differ.
You throw in the fact you are rolling with your backup QB as Barkley misses this game with his shoulder and you have all the more reason USC sticks to their ground game more in this one.
Locker has been great running Sarkasian's offense so far, and having faced LSU on this field to start the year, played very well.
They put up 478 yards total offense against SEC speed and probably could have won that game outright as a 17 point home dog.
Do I think Washington can win this game outright? No, but getting a boatload of points with a coach who is breathing new life into this program already, I will gladly grab the points in this battle this afternoon.
Washington gets it done.
20 DIMER - BAYLOR BEARS - Off their solid win at Wake, and a nice week off afterwards, you couldn't ask for a better spot for Baylor to deliver a huge home knockout of a deflated Uconn team.
The Huskies come in to this game off a heartbreaking loss at home in the 4th quarter on a safety and now have to lace them up without their starting QB and possibly without their star linebacker Scott Lutrus.
as a Uconn team that was offensively-challenged to begin with now must go to war with their backup QB Endres and traveling to Waco, I firmly believe a blowout is in order.
This is a damn good Baylor team to begin with as evidenced by having 16 starters back from last year including 8 on the defensive side of the football, including three all Big 12 first teamers and I really like this kid Griffin at QB for the Bears.
This is their home opener (4-0 as home favorite) and with the crowd ready to roll and to see head coach Art Briles 2009 addition, this as perfect a spot as you can ask for.
Uconn is 1-7 ATS as an away dog and considering the task in front of them today, I will lay it with a focused and angry Baylor bunch looking for revenge for last years loss at Uconn, a game they know they should have won.
Lay it with Baylor.
10 DIMER - FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES - This dog is looking to hunt today.
The Seminoles travel well out of the ACC as their 6-2-1 mark on the road will tell you, and yes they looked really flat against Jacksonville State but who could blame them off the Miami/Florida home loss.
I can't remember the last time a Mountain West team was laying more than a touchdown to a team out of the ACC, but that is the case with this game today and as of this writing the number continues to climb.
Yes, BYU did beat the Sooners on a neutral field, and knock out Sam Bradford while they were at it but Ponder is a lot more mobile than Bradford and he can keep plays alive and the chains moving.
Now to the line of scrimmage. The Seminoles can bring it which I expect them to do, and they will be able to slow down the BYU offense enough to keep this game close.
Team speed favors Florida State here, and I truly believe they will be a highly motivated bunch knowing they are more than a touchdown underdog in this game getting no respect from the linemaker whatsoever.
I will gladly take the Seminoles plus more than a touchdown any day of the week and that is exactly the case here.
Florida State is the play.
FREE SELECTION - BOWLING GREEN FALCONS
Vincent Chan
USC
UCLA
Oregon State
West Virginia
Larry Ness
Daytime Dominator
The Pirates are suffering through their 17th consecutive losing season but a rare bright spot in yet another dismal year has been the pitching of Ross Ohlendorf. Ohlendorf is 11-10 with a 4.03 ERA on the season. However, his home and away breakdowns show he's 3-8 with a 5.56 ERA on the road (team is 3-10) but 8-2 with a 2.74 ERA at home (team is 11-4). The Pirates are a horrendous 19-55 on the road this year but a respectable 37-34 at home, so his record makes sense but Ohlendor's home and away dichotomy is even greater than his team's. He hasn't lost at home since May 29, going 5-0 with a 1.69 ERA in nine starts since June 14 (team is 7-2). Ohlendor has pitched 169.2 innings so far, well above his professional baseball high of 131.2 and there is talk of "shutting him down" for the year. In fact, this may be his final start of 2009. If so, Ohlendor should 'LOVE' the opponent. Charlie Morton allowed just one run over seven innings in Pittsburgh's 5-1 victory last night over the Padres and what else is new? It was the 29th time the Padres, who average a major league-worst 3.86 RPG and are batting a ML-low .243 as a team, had been held to one run or fewer. The Padres are 41-56 ve right-handers on the year, including a 1-9 mark in road day games (like this is!). Meanwhile, San Diego will counter Ohlendor and his outstanding home record with Clayton Richard, one of four pitchers the Padres acquired in the deal that sent Peavy to the Chicago White Sox on July 31. Richard has made nine starts for the Padres since the trade, going 4-2 (team is 6-3) but with a 5.40 ERA. FOUR of those nine starts have come on the road, where he's lasted more than four innings just ONCE! His totals are, 16 IP, 29 hits allowed and 19 ERs (10.69 ERA). The lefty will face a Pittsburgh team which may be 4-16 on the road vs lefties but is 12-7 at home vs left-handers. Daytime Dominator 9* Pit Pirates
My 7* Value Game of the Week is on Colorado at 3:30 ET. The Buffs' 'ugly' 0-2 start allows us a to take full advantage of a 'cheap' number against the "still learning" Wyoming Cowboys.
My 7* Payback Punisher is on Baylor at 5:00 ET. In LY's meeting, Baylor QB Griffin was making his first-ever road start (accounted for four TDs). That wasn't a bad debut and this year an experienced and very dynamic Griffin leads a Baylor team with some high expectations under highly respected HC Art Briles. The Bears won at Wake on Sep 5 and had last week off. Baylor returns 16 starters while U Conn makes a rare visit to Texas, coming off back-to-back unimpressive wins. The Huskies slipped by Ohio 23-16 two weeks ago and last week edged North Carolina 12-10, late. U Conn has a new QB and RB Donald Brown (over 2,000 YR last year) is with the Ind Colts. Baylor's covered NINE of its last 11 games and makes it 10 of 12 here.
LEGEND play
Mike Riley is in his "second tour" at Corvallis, returning in 2003. He's led the Beavers to FIVE bowl appearances in those six seasons, winning all five times. Few people will forget last year's team which opened with a Pac 10 road loss at Stanford and then an embarrassing 45-14 loss to Penn State at Happy Valley. However, just two games later on a Thursday night, the Beavers DOMINATED then-No. 1 USC on both lines of scrimmage, winning 27-21 as 25-point dogs. The Beavers won EIGHT of nine games (three-point loss at Utah, 2009's lone unbeaten team in CFB '08) after that 0-2 start but then with a chance at a spot the Rose Bowl, lost 65-38 at home to Oregon. Ore St opened this year with a 34-7 win over Portland St and then last Saturday night in Las Vegas, almost blew a 20-7 third-quarter lead. UNLV backup QB Mike Clausen rallied the Rebels with two fourth-quarter TD passes, giving UNLV a 21-20 lead with 4:16 left. However, OSU answered with a 12-play, 87-yard drive that culminated in a game-winning 33-yard FG with seven seconds remaining. Jacquizz Rodgers rushed for 166 yards and a TD on 26 carries, adding 65 receiving yards on 10 receptions. His brother, James, finished with 109 total yards and a receiving TD. Last year's starting QB Kyle Moevao (59.3% / 2,534 yards / 19-13 ratio) has been sidelined with a shoulder injury but Sean Canfield really came through for the Beavers at Las Vegas, completing 25-of-31 for 198 yards with two TDs and no INTs. He's completing 78.6% after two games with three TDs and no INTs. The OSU defense returns just three starters from last year's team but that was the case last year as well and that unit was more than adequate (312 YPG allowed and 23.1 PPG). This year's unit hasn't really been tested yet but I expect it will be as good, if not better, than last year's. Coming to Corvallis this Saturday is 17th-ranked Cincinnati. The Bearcats are the lone AP top-25 from the Big East and last year's team set a school record with 11 wins and played in its first-ever BCS bowl (20-7 Orange Bowl loss to Va Tech). Brian Kelly is a wonderful coach who spent 13 years at Div II Grand Valley State (118-35-2) and since coming to FBS, led CMU to two winning seasons in three years (two bowls and a MAC title) before going 21-6 these last two years at Cincinnati. QB Tony Pike is off to a terrific start (77.2% / 591 yards / 6-1 ratio) and with Ramsey (142 YR / 9.5 YPC) and Pead (92 YR) both contributing at RB, the Bearcats have averaged 197.5 YPG on the ground (5.2 YPC). WR Gilyard (14 catches / 14.3 YPC / 3 TDs) became the first FBS player to score on a punt return, catch a TD pass and rush for a TD in the same game since 2005 last week vs SE Mo St. Are the Bearcats as good as they've looked in winning 47-15 at Rutgers and 70-3 over SE Mo St (578 yards-to-176)? I say the jury is still out and let's not forget, the Bearcats return just ONE starter from LY's defensive side (20.1 PPG). Let's check in on some history. Going back to 2004, Cincinnati has played five non-conference BCS schools on the road, plus played Va Tech in last year's bowl game. The Bearcats are 0-6 SU in those games, getting outscored 207-83. Let me note that OSU has gone 28-12 the last three seasons (2006-08) overall, including 15-4 at home, with all four losses coming to Pac 10 rivals. Oregon State has won 26 consecutive non-conference games at home, dating back to 1996. These schools are meeting for just the second time. Oregon State came to the Queen City back in 2007 for a Thursday night game. Cincy won that game 34-3, as the Beavers turned the ball over SEVEN times. Think Riley remembers? The Beavers own a HUGE edge in hosting this game and I expect the Bearcats will not be prepared for the crowd noise at Reser Stadium (Cincy should check in with USC!), LEGEND play on Oregon State (10*).
Team Mismatch
My 9* Team Mismatch is on Oklahoma St at 7:00 ET. The Cowboys opened the 2009 season with a 24-10 win over then-No. 13 Georgia and rose to 5th in the AP poll, their highest ranking since 1985. However, the Cowboys lost 45-35 last Saturday at home to Houston, the Cougars' first win over a top-25 team since 1984. It was a CRUSHING loss but the talented Cowboys get Rice this week, playing its THIRD straight road game. The Owls went 10-3 last year but in 2009, QB Chase Clement (over 4,000 YP / 44 TDs 7 INTs) is gone, as are WRs Casey (111 catches / 13 TDs) and Dillard (87 catches / 20 TDs). Rice has opened with a 44-24 loss at UAB and 55-10 at Texas Tech. Here, the Owls draw OSU off its shocking loss to Houston with teh Cowboys only having Grambling and a bye on deck. Talk about being in the WRONG place at the WRONG time.! By the way, Rice is 0-15 SU vs Big 12 teams with seven consecutive ATS losses by an average score of 46-14. Rice WON'T come that close, here!
I've had the Auburn Tigers each of the last two Saturdays and will 'ride' the Tigers for a third straight weekend on Saturday night. Here's what I wrote before Auburn's opening game of 2009."Auburn is coming off a 5-7 season. However, this program went 42-9 the previous four seasons, including 25-5 here at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Tigers have a new coach in Gene Chizik, who just completed a two-year stay at Iowa St, where the Cyclones went 5-19. Pay no attention that record. This guy was a terrific DC, who was at Auburn for the Tigers' 13-0 season in 2004. He then moved to Texas in 2005, the year the Longhorns won the national title by beating USC in that classic Rose Bowl. Chizik will be just fine at Auburn and he's brought in quality coordinators. Phil Roof is the DC, a former HC at Duke, who took over a Minnesota defense last year, cutting its PPG average to 24.8 in 2008, from 36.7 in 2007 (don't forget, Chizik knows a little something about defense, as well). The defense returns eight starters from last year and will be typically tough SEC unit. Auburn's new OC is Gus Malzahn and the team needs a new one after barely averaging over 300 YPG in 2008 (302) and just 17.3 PPG. What's Malzahn been doing the last two years? He's been at Tulsa where his offense averaged 268 YPG rushing and 302 YPG passing last year (47.2 PPG), after averaging 173 YPG rushing and 371 YPG passing in 2007 (41.1 PPG). Auburn's had sub-par QBs the last couple of years but look for Malzahn to get that turned around. Chris Todd has won the starting job and reports are he's healthy (off shoulder surgery) and set for a good year, Also expect the running game to be greatly improved with a healthy Ben Tate (had 903 YR two years ago and owns a 4.7 YPC average in his career) plus freshman Ontario McCalebb, who is the fastest player the team has had in a few years. Chizik needs a fast start at Auburn to erase the team's 5-7 season of 2008 (last seen losing 36-0 at Alabama) and to let everyone know his 5-19 mark at Ames has no relevance to his tenure here at Auburn."
Las Vegas Insider
The Tigers have beaten La Tech 37-13 and Miss St 49-24 to open 2009. They've outscored La Tech 24-3 in the second half and Miss St by 21-7. That 45-10 second-half domination is attributed to the Tigers beng able to wear their opponents down (weather this time of year in Alabama helps, even at night). QB Todd has completed 55.1 percent for 441 yards and most importantly, has not thrown a single INT. Backup QB Burns has been used in the "wildcat formation," adding four TDs runs (three LW) and a 13-yard TD pass. Tate has run for 274 yards (6.9 YPC) and freshman McCalebb for 262 (also 6.9 YPC). Under Malzahn and Chizik, the Tigers are averaging 43.0 PPG and 572.5 YPG. As for the Chizik/Roof defense, the Tigers are allowing 271.0 YPG and 18.5 PPG. So far, so good! West Va is also 2-0, having beaten Liberty 33-20 and East Carolina 35-20. The Mountaineers used last year's 24-3 loss at East Carolina as motivation and improved to 13-0 all time at home against the Pirates. QB Jarrett Brown threw for a career-high 334 yards and had four TD passes. While West Va had all the motivation last week vs East Carolina, "the shoe is on the other foot" regarding motivation in this game. Auburn jumped out to a 17-3 last year at Morgantown, only to see West Va score the final 31 points of the game, led by Pat White (now gone to the NFL) who had three TD passes and Noel Devine (207 yards rushing). Auburn was held to 33 yards in the second half and was held scoreless the final 40 minutes. As mentioned at the top, this is a VERY different Auburn team. Believe it not, this will be Brown's first-ever road start and let me also note that this will be the first time in 31 regular season games that the Mountaineers have been an underdog. West Va was a one-point underdog at Louisville in 2006, losing 44-34. The Mountaineers have played 30 regular season games since, laying point each time. West Va has a young OL (three sophs start), a QB making his first road start and let me note that while LW's win over East Carolina was a good one, the Mountaineers did commit 11 penalties plus turned the ball over four times. Auburn only has Ball St up next (4th straight home game to open '09) and a win here gets Chizik off to just the kind of start he needed, as SEC play begins Oct 3 at Tennessee. Las Vegas Insider on Auburn (8*).
Weekend Wipeout Winner
The 23rd-ranked Bulldogs will visit Fayetteville Saturday night to take on the Razorbacks. Georgia opened the 2009 season with a disappointing road loss to Oklahoma State, 24-10. Georgia led 7-0 after the first quarter in Stillwater but scored just three points the rest of the way. The Bulldogs followed that road loss with a four-point home win last Saturday over South Carolina. In a game expected to be low scoring, the Bulldogs prevailed, 41-37. QB Joe Cox played well with a supposed bad shoulder (17-of-24 for 201 yards with two TDs and an INT) but the Georgia 'D' was quite disappointing. South Carolina had opened the CFB season on September 3 with a 7-3 win at NC State, gaining a paltry 256 total yards, as QB Garcia threw for just 148 yards (0 TDs and one INT). The Gamecocks gained 427 yards vs the Bulldogs and Garcia threw for 313. Good news may be coming Georgia's way this Saturday. Caleb King, Knowshon Moreno's top backup last season, has missed the first two games for the Bulldogs with a hamstring injury but may play on Saturday night. Richard Samuel has run for 152 yards in the first two games (4.3 YPC) but he's no Moreno and King would be a HUGE upgrade. Cox has looked OK at QB for Georgia but it's safe to say he's no Stafford, either. Richt's teams own an impressive 30-5 SU in true road games but the Bulldogs have opened the '09 season with a brutal three-game stretch. The Razorbacks are "lying in wait," having last played on September 5, routing Missouri St 48-10. Arkansas returned the season's opening kickoff for a TD against the Bears and wound up with a 591-205 edge in total yards. The Razorbacks set a school record with 447 yards passing in the victory which is saying something, as the school had never thrown for over 400 yards in a game in its history, Ryan Mallett, who sat out last season after transferring from Michigan, went 17 for 22 for 309 yards and a TD while backup Tyler Wilson also played and threw for 138 yards and two TDs. Coming off a 5-7 season, the Razorbacks are expecting a HUGE improvement in Bobby Petrino's second year. Mallett hadn't played in a game since November 2007 and Petrino let both him and Wilson throw the ball, choosing to rest RB Michael Smith (1,072 YR / 5.2 YPC / 8 TDs), who carried only four times for 43 yards. Last year was a tough one for the Hogs, as Petrino was the subject of a lot of controversy after leaving the Atlanta Falcons during the season to accept the Arkansas job two years ago (quit on the Falcons with three games still left in the season). However, this guy can coach (41-9 in four years / four bowl games / two, top-6 AP finishes) and almost everyone anticipates for things to turn around this fall. Petrino's Louisville teams always put up big passing numbers and expect that to be the case in 2009 with Mallet in charge. Don't forget about RB Smith though, as while he's no McFadden, he figures to be a solid 1,000-yard-plus rusher. Georgia's defense has not looked sound in the early going and while Arkansas is home and playing for just the second time in three weeks, the Bulldogs have been to Stillwater, back to Athens and now on to Fayetteville these last three Saturdays. Weekend Wipeout Winner on Arkansas. (7.5*).
Adam Wins
LSU 6 units
Nevada 4 units
Kent State 4 units
Cal 5 units
Bankers Sports
300 Kentucky
Directors Sports
Bowling Green
Joyce Sterling
Ohio St -20.5
Virginia Under47
Florida Atlantic +20.5
Blazer
4 Kan St
3 BC
3 Colo St
3 Okla St
3 Kty
Seabass
20* Clemson
50* Purdue over
200* Kentucky
Psychic
2 unit Northwestern -3
2 unit Florida State +8
2 unit Boston College +7
3 unit UNLV -7 (best bet)
3 unit Oregon State +1.5 (best bet)
4 unit Kansas State +12 (Major)
4 unit Florida Atlantic +21 (Major)