RAS
1.5 Units Kansas St -5.5
1 Unit Troy Over 63.5
1 Unit South Fl. Under 60
1 Unit Tulane Under 59
1 Unit Oregon Over 54.5
1 Unit UNLV Under 53
1 Unit Kansas Over 48
Wunderdog
5 Units Georgia Tech -8.5
5 Units Duke -6
5 Units Arkansas +7
5 Units Colorado State +7.5
5 Units Kansas -23
5 Units Georgia +1
5 Units South Florida -27
5 Units Fresno State +2.5
5 Units California +6.5
5 Units Oregon -11.5
David MalinskyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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4* WEST VIRGINIA +10 over L.S.U.
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Last week we focused in on the awful ATS tally that Les Miles has put together as home favorite since taking over for Nick Saban in Baton Rouge, and while the Tigers picked up a rare chalk cover in that one, the way it happened goes completely contrary to the way that the markets are playing this week. That gets us back in the game here at the generous plateau that has been created.
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OK, so L.S.U. got a 29-7 scoreboard win over Mississippi State. But take a closer look. A struggling offense managed only 15 first downs and 261 yards, with the margin coming from a +4 turnover differential. Yet despite being gifted with five INT’s and the great field position that came with several of them, the Tiger offense could only reach the end zone twice. This is after they had only managed 10 points into the fourth quarter at Vanderbilt two weeks ago, a tense 10-3 struggle that broke open late.
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Which leads us to this week. Now we have an offense basically without a go-to strength, with Jordan Jefferson showing little development at QB, netting just 6.0 yards per pass attempt, with as many INT’s as TD’s, despite not having taken a snap while trailing in a game all season. And except for Stevan Ridley breaking a 65-yard TD run in the 4th quarter at Vanderbilt, the ground game has been nothing special. Now they not only take on the best defense they have faced so far, but one that has a chance to be in the Top 10 nationally this season, and it leaves the Tigers hard-pressed to ever get any control of the flow, much less develop a margin. Especially since the Miles designs have rarely maximized opportunities in these settings.
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The West Virginia defense will be tough to penetrate overland (125 yards through two lined games), but the pass numbers will need time to correct after three major home runs were hit against them the last two weeks – Marshall scored on a 96-yard TD pass, and Maryland connected for scores of 80 and 60 yards. How out of character were those plays? In the other 50 pass attempts in those two games there were only 217 yards generated. And note that both of the Maryland TD tosses came after the Mountaineers had built a comfortable 28-0 lead in the 3rd quarter. Meanwhile the offense has the playmakers to seriously challenge the Tiger defenders – Geno Smith is going to be special at QB; Noel Devine is dangerous both as a runner and receiver in the open field; and Smith has excellent targets in Tavon Austin, Jock Saunders and Steadman Bailey.
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Wet Virginia has gone 4-1 ATS as an underdog under Bill Stewart, with three of the successes outright wins, and while the only pointspread blemish was that 41-30 loss as +7 at Auburn LY, it did not tell us anything at all about a talent imbalance vs. an SEC opponent – the Mountaineers led 509-400 in total offense, but were on the wrong end of a -5 turnover deficit, including an INT return for a TD. They physically stood toe-to-toe in that one, and can do the same here.
Dr Bob
Houston (-19) 2-Stars at -21 or less.
Boise State (-17 1/2) 2-Stars at -19 or less.
Nevada (-3 1/2) 2-Stars at -6 or less.
Stanford (-4) 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.
Strong Opinions
Toledo-Purdue UNDER (51) Strong Opinion Under 50 or higher.
Florida State (-19) Strong Opinion at -20 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -17.
Fresno State (+2 1/2) Strong Opinion at +1 or more.
Air Force-Wyoming OVER (49) Strong Opinion Over 52 or less.
Idaho (-7 1/2) Strong Opinion at -9 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -7 or less.
Southern Miss (-3 1/2) Strong Opinion at -4 or less.
Tennessee (-13 1/2) Strong Opinion at -14 or less.
Northern Illinois (+4) Strong Opinion at +3 1/2 or more.
Arkansas State-Troy OVER (66) Strong Opinion Over 68 or less.
Teddy Covers
UNC
Penn St
Ark Over
Stanford
BYU
S Carolina
Tim Trushel
20* Underdog GOM Colorado State
Wake Forest
BYU
Ben Burns
10* Personal Fav - Oklahoma -15.5
10* Situational GOY - Utah State +7
9* Conference GOM - Georgia Tech -8.5
9* Total of the Week - Boise St Under 56.5
8* Shocker - Arkansas +7.5
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Stanford Cardinal vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Play: Stanford Cardinal -4½
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The Cardinals have cracked the Top 20 with a 3-0 record on three decisive victories over Sacramento State, UCLA, and Wake Forest. The offense looks very confident with HC Jim Harbaughs playbook. This is a well-balanced offense that can beat you up with either the run or the pass. They are averaging 51.7 PPG. Losing a Heisman Candidate RB this year has not slowed down to squad at all. Stanford QB Andrew Luck has tallied 674 TP, 10 TDs, and 0 INTs. He has played mistake-free football. He may be without WR Ryan Whalen (check status) but with or without him, the receiving corps is stacked. They have 4 RBs, each with 100 plus yards on the season. Their "D" is giving up just 13.7 PPG. They took Notre Dame last year in a 45-38 barnburner. They exude confidence and although are playing Oregon next week, they would love to show up the Irish on national television. Notre Dame is lucky to be 1-2 TY. They opened up their season with a victory over Purdue, only to drop their L2 games to Michigan and Michigan State. QB Dayne Crist has looked good thus far, but is still very young and truly inexperienced. Notre Dame has two problems. For starters, they can't run the ball with any consistency. The second problem is that their defense is yielding 24.7 PPG because they can't stop the run either. Over their L2 games, they have given up 491 YR and 518 YP. Their "D" might be without Safety Jamoris Slaughter (check status). Notre Dame doesn't have any big-time playmakers. Stanford will hand Notre Dame their 3rd loss of the season. Take Stanford.
Tony George
Connecticut -20
Look for U Conn to bounce back big against a Buffalo team who simply has NO offense and miss head man Turner Gill who left for Kansas. They have 1 TD in the last 2 games and U Conn is ticked off and wanting a huge bounceback game to run it up. Not afraid of the line, this is a 25+ point blowout in the making here. Losing to Temple last week and losing to Michigan with some bad timing on turnovers, I expect U Conn at home here to open the flood gates. Play 1 Unit on U Conn.
Bettor Wins
5 Units Arkansas +7
5 Units Arizona State +11.5
Platinum Plays
Premier Plays (Top Plays)
Kansas State
Boise St
400K Play
N Illinois
500K Play
Alabama
Reg Plays
Cen Mich
BC
Flor St
N Carolina
BYU
Miss St
S Carolina
S D State
W Va
UTEP
Totals 4 U
Top Plays
BC UNDER 47.5
Alab UNDER 56
Boise OVER 56
Reg Plays
B Green UNDER 58
Ga Tech OVER 58
ND OVER 59
Oka UNDER 52
S Car UNDER 46.5
LSU OVER 43.5
David Banks
Maryland -12
Iowa -28
Notre Dame +4.5
Texas -15.5
Alabama -7
Oklahoma -14
South Carolina +3
LSU -10
Arizona St. +11.5
NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* Arizona Wildcats
3* South Carolina Gamecocks
3* Standford Cardinal
3* Georgia Bulldogs
3* Oregon St /Boise State Over
John Fina
GOY 5 Units Georgia +1.5
2.5 Units Mississippi -2.5
2.5 Units Oregon State +18.5
2.5 Units California +7.5
2.5 Units UNLV -10.5
2.5 Units Arizona State +12.5