Jeff Benton
40 Dime ALABAMA
15 Dime AIR FORCE
10 Dime BALL STATE
ALABAMA
Suffice it to say, I learned a lesson last week regarding Alabama. The Crimson Tide were in a classic letdown/sandwich spot, traveling to Duke for a non-conference game one week after a dominating home win over Penn State and a week before a killer three-game SEC stretch of @ Arkansas, vs. Florida, @ South Carolina.
The situation lined up perfectly as a go-against for Alabama, so I took 24½ points with Duke. And all the Tide did was roll to an unbelievably easy 62-13 victory, jumping out to a 28-0 lead 10 minutes into the game and finishing with an eye-popping 626 total yards. The result told me one thing: Alabama once again is absoluaely for real, and they’re not looking past ANYBODY at ANY time this season. So even though they have that huge rivalry game against Florida in Tuscaloosa next week, I’m convinced – after what they did at Duke last week – that the Tide will be fully focused on Arkansas.
And that’s bad news for the Razorbacks, because the only chance they had of competing in this contest was if they caught the Crimson Tide with their guard down. Yes, Arkansas is definitely improving. Yes, it is coming off an impressive road win at Georgia (though it blew a 24-10 fourth-quarter lead). And yes, the Razorbacks have an NFL caliber quarterback in Ryan Mallett (70 percent completions, 1,081 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs). But let’s be clear here: They’re not even close to having enough horses to run with the defending champs.
Alabama has now won 16 consecutive games, with all but two being by nine points or more. That includes eight wins away from Tuscaloosa by scores of 34-24 (Virginia Tech at a neutral site), 38-20 (at Kentucky), 22-3 (at Ole Miss), 31-3 (at Mississippi State), 26-21 (at Auburn), 32-13 (Florida in the SEC championship game), 37-21 (Texas in the BCS title game) and 62-13 (at Duke). And if you go back to the start of the 2008 season, Nick Saban’s squad has won 28 consecutive regular-season games, including an astonishing 22 double-digit blowouts!
In its three wins this year (San Jose State, Penn State and Duke), Alabama has put up 134 points and surrendered 19, including just one touchdown (which came near the end of the first half last week when Duke was trailing 42-6). The Tide are averaging 542 yards per game, including 250.7 on the ground (6.8 yards per rush), and their young defense has grown up in a hurry, surrendering just 253.3 ypg.
Granted, that defense will be facing its toughest challenge of the season here, as Mallett and the Razorbacks can move the football and score points. But at the same time, this is the most talented, most athletic defense Mallett and Co. have seen this season. In fact, it’s the best D Arkansas has faced in, well, exactly a year. It was 52 weeks ago that Arkansas went to Tuscaloosa and got dumped 35-7 as a 17½-point underdog, with Mallett going 12-for-35 for 161 yards. And the year previous, the Tide went to Fayetteville and posted an even more impressive 49-14 win as an eight-point road underdog (part of Alabama’s 28-game regular-season winning streak).
One more important point to make here, and it deals not with Xs and Os, but rather conifidence: Which of these teams do you think is going to be more comfortable and more prepared to deal with the pressure that comes with this game? Alabama, which in the last two-plus seasons has won marquee, pressure-packed games against such powerhouses as Penn State, Texas, Florida, Virginia Tech, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee (twice) and Clemson? Or the Razorbacks, who under third-year coach Bobby Petrino have just two signature wins (last week’s against a down Georgia squad, and a one-point win over LSU in the 2008 season finale when LSU had thrown in the towel on the season) to go with high-profile losses to Alabama (twice), Texas, Florida (twice), Georgia (52-41 at home) and LSU?
The bottom line is I have no question in my mind that the Crimson Tide will be clam, cool and collected from the get-go today – and I have no question that if ‘Bama does face some adversity, it will be able to overcome it. I do NOT have the same confidence in Arkansas, which I don’t believe is ready for prime time.
As for this pointspread, look, I know we’re paying an Alabama tax here (this was a 3½-point spread three months ago). But Saban has shown the last two years that when he wins, he tends to win BIG (again, 22 of 28 wins by double digits, plus a nine-point victory). And for what it’s worth, ‘Bama is on ATS runs of 5-0 overall, 9-2 on the road, 5-0 in September and 10-4 in SEC play. Also, the visitor has cashed in four of the last six in this rivalry.
Lay the points with confidence, and look for RB Mark Ingram and QB Greg McElroy (who has still NEVER lost a football game going back to his high school days!) to put up big numbers against a suspect Arkansas defense. Alabama by 17.
AIR FORCE
Air Force is in a tough spot here, traveling on back-to-back weeks after last Saturday’s impressive showing against Oklahoma (27-24 loss as a 17-point underdog – I had the Falcons as a free play in that one). Still, I trust the Fly Boys offense to have no trouble at all running – literally! – up and down the field against a Wyoming defense that has been shredded on the ground in its first three games. After giving up 191 rushing yards in a home win over Southern Utah, the Cowboys have gotten steamrolled the last two weeks by Texas (167 rushing yards) and Boise State (275 rushing yards).
Wyoming lost those two contests by combined margin of 85-13, and even though few would put Air Force in the same class as Boise and Texas, I’d imagine few thought the Falcons would go into Norman last week (where Oklahoma had won 31 straight games) and outplay the seventh-ranked Sooners (Air Force had a 458-367 yard edge in total offense and rushed for an astonishing 351 yards).
Already this season, Air Force’s triple-option attack has racked up nearly 1,200 rushing yards (399 per game), averaging 6.3 yards per tote. By compalison, the Cowboys have rushed for a grand total of 73 yards in three games (24.3 per contest) while giving up 211 ypg on the ground!
Dating to a 27-point bowl win over Houston last year, Air Force has scored 47, 65, 35 and 24 points in its last four games, going 3-1 SU and ATS. Since Halloween of last year, the Falcons have won six of eight, scoring 34 or more in all six wins. They’ve also taken four straight in the Mountain West Conference rivalry with Wyoming (3-1 ATS), winning the last two by an aggregate score of 33-3.
Finally, the Falcons have been a spread-covering machine of late, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall, 5-1 ATS in their last six as a road favorite, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a double-digit chalk, 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against losing teams and 31-14-1 ATS in their last 46 September contests. Wyoming is in pointspread slumps of 0-4 at home, 2-7 as a home ‘dog, 1-4 as a double-digit home ‘dog, 5-14-1 against winning teams and 7-20-1 in non-conference play.
BALL STATE
I simply don’t trust Iowa to rebound from last week’s disappointing loss at Arizona and have the energy or desire to steamroll a MAC opponent by this kind of margin.
Not only are the Hawkeyes likely still down in the dumps after the way their trip to Tucson unfolded – they fell behind 27-7 at halftime, rallied with 20 unanswered points to tie the game, missed an extra-point blocked that would’ve given them the lead, then gave up the winning score with under 4 minutes to play – but they’ve got much bigger fish to fry. Iowa has four huge Big Ten games on deck against Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State, meaning this contest against Ball State is a classic sandwich/look-ahead situation.
Ball State bounced back from a humiliating home loss to Liberty and acquitted itself well at Purdue last week, losing 24-13 but covering as a 16½-point road underdog. The puts the Cardinals at 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last four as a double-digit road underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last seven against the Big Ten. Furthermore, Ball State has covered in 13 of its last 17 non-conference games.
On the flip side, Iowa has just two spread-covers in its last seven home games (all as a favorite), and while they are on an 8-2-1 ATS roll against MAC opponents, the Hawkeyes have also covered in just three of their last 13 against teams with a losing record (bolstering my belief that Iowa won’t bring the kind of intensity or focus necessary to cover a four-touchdown pointspread).
NSA
20* Houston -19
20* Notre Dame +5
20* Cincinnati +14
10* Temple +14
10* Arizona -6.5
10* Florida State Over 62.5
Chris Jordan
200* Air Force
Trace Adams
1500* Air Force
500* Kentucky
500* Alabama
Andy Iskoe
California at Arizona
Pick: California +7
It's not always just the public that overreacts to what it saw last but sometimes the linesmakers do as well. Such is the case in this Saturday's Cal at Arizona contest. Cal lost badly on national TV last Friday night at Nevada, 52-31, while Arizona got out to a comfortable lead the following night against Arizona, also on national TV, only to see Iowa rally to tie the contest before marching downfield in response for the 34-27 Arizona victory. The overreaction comes in the form of the line adjustment that occurred because of those two results. For most of the summer Arizona was a short -- and justifiable -- 3 point favorite over Cal in "College Games of the Year" wagering at the Las Vegas Hilton. Even as recently as last week, after the second week of the season but before last weekend's games, Arizona was still favored by 3 points in this game. Cal has fared well against Arizona since Jeff Tedford took over as Cal coach. Since Tedford's second season in 2003 -- when Cal began its run of 7 straight Bowl appearances -- Cal has won and covered 5 of 7 meetings and has been favored in all 7. The 2 losses did come in Cal's last 2 trips to the desert, losing 24-20 in 2006 (as 13 1/2 point favorites) and again in 2008 42-27 (as 2 1/2 point faves) after winning in Tedford's first trip to Tucson 38-0 in 2004 (favored by a huge 22 1/2). Cal has the talent to win this game straight up but getting at least double the FG we would have gotten last week makes Cal an attractive play at this price in what should be an entertaining back and forth contest.
Mike Neri
4* Boise State
4* Nevada
3* Virginia Tech
3* Houston
3* Air Force
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Twins +100
4 Units Colorado -135
KELSO
25 Units KC Royals -140
15 Units Philadelphia -160
10 Units St Louis Cards -160
Carolina Sports
4* Temple
4* Florida St
4* Arkansas
3* Ohio U
3* W Virginia
3* N Illinois
3* UTEP
Gameday
3* Texas
3* Tennessee
2* Georgia
2* Arkansas
2* Notre Dame
Joe D
25 W Virginia
20 G Tech
20 Auburn
15 Georgia
15 Northwestern
15 Arizona
LT Profits
3* Nevada
2* Duke Under
2* Temple
2* Indiana Under
2* Utah St
Preferred
5* Arkansas
3* BYU
LarryNess
10* Ole Miss
10* Notre Dame
9* Kansas St
8* Texas
8* BYU
8* Georgia
Sean Higgs
10* Oklahoma
Executive
400% Georgia Tech -7.5
300% Northwestern -6.5
Joel Tyson
40 Dime - Idaho
Score
400 Army
Scott Spreitzer
Mismatch GOY - Texas
Rival GOM - Notre Dame
Massacre - Georgia Tech
KO GOW - Mississippi
EZWINNERS
5* Texas
2* West Virginia
JR Tipps
15* Fresno St
10* Idaho
10* Stanford
10* Bowling Green
Real Animal
5* Boise St
4* Air Force
4* Georgia
4* Boise St Over
3* Oklahoma
3* Kentucky
3* Penn St Over
PPP
Added
4% So. Miss
3% Indiana
3% Florida Int.
SPORTS UNLIMITED
10* Georgia Tech
5* Louisiana Tech