Right Angle Sports
Toledo -2 1.0 UNIT
Rocketman
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Minnesota vs. Northwestern
Play: 5* Minnesota +2.5
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Both teams come in with identical 2-1 records. Minnesota's loss was to a very good California team while Northwestern was beaten by Syracuse this past week. Their common opponent is Syracuse where both traveled to the Carrier Dome with Minnesota winning by 3 and Northwestern losing by 3. This Minnesota team returns 18 starters from last year's bowl team. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS at Northwestern since 1992. Northwestern is 0-4 ATS off a non-conference game vs opponent off a double digit SU loss. Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0. Golden Gophers are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden Gophers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. Golden Gophers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September. Golden Gophers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Golden Gophers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Wildcats are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games as a home favorite. Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Wildcats are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in September. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Road team is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings. We'll play Minnesota for 5 units today!
Maddux Sports
5 units on Penn State -9.5
4 units on Wisconsin -3
4 units on UAB +14
3 units on Cincinnati -16.5
3 units on Rice +7
THE KING MAKER
1 Unit Miami Hurricanes -3
RAS
1 Unit Each
Tenn Over 44.5
Kansas Over 58.5
Georgia Under 52
G Tech Under 47
USC Over 53
Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack
Matchup: Indiana at Michigan
Play: Michigan -20
MICHIGAN over Indiana - Indy is 2-13 SU in B10 openers but did win in ‘06 and ‘07. Indy is 7-20 ATS away vs B10 opps incl 0-3 SU/ATS vs Mich. Mich is on their 4th str HG but has a big revenge match vs rival Mich St on deck. Mich is 30-1 in the series winning the L/5 by 30 ppg but Rod is 2-5 as a HF (2-0 TY). UM awoke from just a 24-17 halftime lead to cruise to a 45-17 win over EM in which the Wolves rushed for their most yds (392) S/’03 and finished with a 448-285 yd edge. QB Forcier struggled (7-13, 68 yds) after LW’s heroics. The Hoosiers are 3-0 after a 38-21 win at Akron in which the Zips susp’d their starting QB on Friday and his replacement threw 4 int. QB Chappell avg 225 (68%) with a 3-3 ratio. UM has huge edges all around (#19-91 off, #27-60 D and #26-75 ST) and Rod’s team opens up B10 play like the good old days.
Fresno St at Cincinnati
Play: Fresno St +17
Fresno St Over CINCINNATI - 1st meeting. Cincy has won 15 in a row SU vs non-BCS teams. LY Fresno traveled to BE country and was outplayed in the 1H by Rutgers but rolled to a 24-7 win. They are 7-7 SU vs BCS teams on the road with 4 losses by a comb 9 pts. Cin returns home after a big win over Ore St, 28-18 (-1). QB Pike is avg 308 ypg (71%) with an 8-2 ratio. Kelly is 7-3 ATS at home and Hill is 2-14 off a SU loss and has lost 10 straight vs ranked teams (skid started USC ‘05). FSU is off a disappointing home loss to Boise 51-34. FSU is avg 270 ypg rush led by Mathews who is avg 149 ypg (9.1!). They now face UC that is all’g 69.3 rush ypg and held LY’s Pac 10 Off POY (OSU Rodgers) to 73 yds. The def edge goes to Cincy (#56-86), who is playing solid despite ret’g 1 str from LY. There will be a big crowd on hand to watch #14 Cincy take advantage of FSU who may not have much left in the tank on a long trip after a tough loss.
North Carolina at GA Tech
Play: GA Tech -2.5
GEORGIA TECH Over N Carolina - GT is 9-2 SU but LY #19 NC defeated #22 GT 28-7 as RB Houston ran for a pair of 4Q TD’s. GT did rush for 326 and had a 423-314 yd edge but was done in by -3 in TO’s. In ‘07, GT needed a FG w/:15 left at home 27-25 (-9’). Since taking a 24-0 lead vs Clemson TY, GT has been outscored 60-23. GT is 3-0 off a loss and 3-1 as a HF under Johnson. QB Nesbitt is avg 119 ypg (38%) with a 2-2 ratio and has rushed for 213 yds (4.6). RB Dwyer was inj’d in the 1H LW vs UM and did not return (168 rush yds, 5.6). NC is off to its first 3-0 start since winning 8 straight in ‘97. QB Yates is avg 191 ypg (67%) with a 5-3 ratio. True frosh Highsmith has 10 rec (17.2). NC has a very athletic D-line but GT needs to bounce back after being held to just 228 ttl yds on national TV last Thurs in their 33-17 loss to UM.
Marshall at Memphis
Play: Marshall +3.5
Marshall Over MEMPHIS - The HT has won all 4 SU (3-1 ATS) in the series. LY Marshall held the Tigers to a regular ssn-low 94 yds rushing and won 17-16 (-4) despite being outFD’d. The L/2 have been decided by 1 and 3. Marshall HC Snyder is just 6-16 as an AD, but Memphis HC West is 7-13 as a HF. The Herd is a off a 17-10 home win over BG as a 4H LPS Winner. Marshall was outgained 393-346, but held the Falcons to just 10 rush yds (0.5!). RB Marshall ran for 186 (8.9), incl an 80 yd TD run. Memphis got their 1st win as they beat FCS foe UT-Martin 41-14. Soph QB Tyler Bass got his 1st career start and was 21-27 for 293 with a 4-1 ratio. Leading rusher Steele (119, 5.0) missed LW and is expected to miss at least 1 more week. These teams always seem to play close games and we like a Marshall team with fewer question marks to come away with a key CUSA road win.
San Diego State at Air Force
Play: San Diego State +17
San Diego St (+) Over AIR FORCE - Air Force has been impressive ranking #1 NCAA (by 55 ypg) rushing for 344 ypg (5.0) but they now face SDSt’s DC Long who was a master at slowing the option while HC at NM. At NM, his units held AF to 70 ypg under their rushing avg. This season the Aztecs have held opponents to 135 ypg (3.8). In their last meeting, SD was without QB Lindley and led 10-7 at HT but then struggled in the 2H. This season Lindley has thrown for 242 ypg (54%) with a 5-1 ratio despite being banged up LW. AF is 5-0 as a conf HF and QB Jefferson inj his ankle LW and did not finish the game. Jefferson made his first start vs SDSt LY as AF rushed for 401 (5.2). SDSt is in their 3rd road game in 4 wks, but favor the well-coached squad in this series in which the dog has gone 10-6 ATS with 5 upsets in 8 yrs.
UNLV at Wyoming
Play: UNLV -3
Unlv Over WYOMING - UNLV is 7 seconds away from a 3-0 start and is now in the rare role of being a conf AF (0-1 ATS L5Y). Wyoming was off to a 2-0 ATS start but covered by a combined 1.5 pts. LW they ran into an angry Colorado squad and lost 24-0 and now have been outgained by a comb 870-503 the L/2 gms. LV QB Clayton threw for 340 yds and 3 TD in their comeback win against Hawaii and should have another solid performance against a WY D that has allowed 283 pass yds per game (61%). WY has used 2 QB’s TY and they have completed only 44% of their passes against two FBS tms. We don’t foresee much improvement as WY OL has all’d 11 sks which has forced the QB’s to hurry their passes. The Rebels have covered 3 straight in this series, are 5-1 ATS in Laramie, have the superior off (#74-117) and have a huge ST’s edge (#59-119).
Akron at C.Michigan
Play: C.Michigan -15.5
C MICHIGAN Over Akron - CM is 6-1 SU and despite not being fav by more than 3’ in that span are 4-3 ATS with 3 (-3’) and 1 (-2’) pt wins. Akron is 3-9 SU on the MAC road w/the avg win by 4 ppg and avg loss by 14 ppg. CM is 8-2 as a HF and last time here in ‘06 was actually a dog (+1) and won 24-21. In their ‘07 non-cover CM had a 639-323 yd edge but was SOD 3 times and blew 12 pt leads twice. That game also did not matter in the MAC standings for CM but this year’s does. Akron is off a letdown as they were favored over a BCS team in their 2nd game at their new on-campus stadium but Sr QB Jacquemain was susp indef LW and his backup Soph QB Rodgers threw 4 int in his first start. CM did not show any hangover from their upset of Mich St as they dominated FCS Alcorn St with a 460-236 yd edge. CM is led by QB LeFevour who is avg 176 (69%) with a 3-2 ratio and has 3 rush TD. CM has the def edge (#73-106) and with Jacquemain out have a bigger off edge than the numbers show (#64-73) and catch the Zips at the right time.
TCU at Clemson
Play: Clemson -1.5
CLEMSON over Tcu - Last week we won our Sept 5* GOM with Clemson over BC. This is a dangerous spot for Clemson as they are in an ACC sandwich while the Frogs are in between Texas St and SMU and will be sky high for any matchup vs a BCS school. TCU just traveled to the East Coast and dispatched UVA 30-14 and may be the most talented non-BCS team (just like LY). Both teams have excellent D’s (TCU #7 vs CU #9). CU QB Parker is avg 174 ypg (47%) with a 5-4 ratio. RB Spiller, who sat out the 4Q LW with a recurring toe inj and was only at 85% to start the game, is avg 210 all-purp ypg. TCU QB Dalton is avg 207 ypg (74%) with a 3-2 ratio. RB Turner has rushed for 324 yds (9.0!). TCU’s ranking assures Clemson’s focus here.
Colorado State at BYU
Play: BYU -16
BYU over Colorado St - BYU’s BCS and National Title hopes were dashed LW getting routed at home 54-28 to FSU. The loss snapped their 18 game home winning streak. Despite the lopsided score BYU was only outgained 512-473 but were -5 in TO’s. Meanwhile, CSU is off to their best start (3-0) since 1994. LW they upset (+3’) Nevada 35-20 thanks in large part to a +5 TO margin. Despite the tm success, CSU QB Stucker has struggled in his 1st ssn avg 192 ypg (50%) with a 4-3 ratio. Don’t expect his performance to improve going up against a fired up BYU D who was embarrassed against the Noles. Meanwhile, BYU QB Hall is having a solid season avg 315 ypg (69%) but only has a 6-6 ratio. BYU’s veteran team should be focused to avenge LW’s loss as they start their run at a 3rd MWC Title in 4 years.
Army at Iowa State
Play: Army +10.5
Army (+) Over IOWA ST - #22 ISU beat Army 28-21(-17) on the road in ‘05, but trailed 14-7 at HT and was outgained 365-229. Army is 1-4 SU vs the B12 but has only been outscored by 5 ppg. Army is 5-1 as an AD (won at EM Wk 1). ISU is 1-4 as a HF and in the only cover was outgained (outFD’d 20-14, +3 TO). ISU snapped a 17 gm road losing streak LW vs Kent St, although KSU was depleted w/inj’s (no starting QB and RB). QB Arnaud bounced back LW from a 4 int day and is avg 150 ypg (55%) with a 3-4 ratio. Army (could be 3-0, up 10-0 vs Duke) beat Ball St LW despite being outgained (-110 yds) for the 1st time TY (+3 TO). True Fr QB Steelman has 228 ttl yds (1st true QB to start at Army in modern era). RB Mealy has 236 yds (10.7). Both tms come in at 2-1 and with the schedules getting tougher for each a win for either would be huge here.
Member Plays
Buffalo at Temple
Play: Temple -2.5
TEMPLE Over Buffalo - UB beat TU on a 35 yd Hail Mary LY, the most miraculous play in UB history. UB is 12-1 all-time vs Temple (only loss in ‘70), incl 3-0 in MAC meetings. The Bulls are on their 3rd road game in 4W but did win here 42-7 in ‘07 with a 273 yd advantage. Gill is 15-6 as an AD (1-1 TY). UB lost their all-time leading rusher Starks for the year just prior to the season and RB Thermilus leads the team with just 164 ypg (3.2). QB Maynard is avg 248 (65%) with a 6-2 ratio thanks to his top WR Roosevelt’s 20 rec (16.2). TU QB Charlton is avg 261 (567%) with a 2-3 ratio incl 205 vs a tough Penn St def. While the Owls are off a short trip to Happy Valley, Buff returns from a long road trip to UCF where they let a 17-7 halftime lead escape them. While the Bulls have a slight edge on off (#106-110) the Owls have a bigger def edge (#55-96) and should be able to corral the Bulls.
RatedPicks
Cincinatti -16 vs Fresno St
Miami-Florida -3 vs Virginia Tech
Boise State -16.5 vs Bowling Green
Texas Tech vs Houston OVER 73
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket: Iowa +10
Texas A&M -14
Rice Over 48
Idaho +17
Stanford -8
Florida International -1
Ron Raymond
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Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -3
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The Badgers are 3-0 SU to start the season, but they were never tested in their games and now Badgers head coach Bret Bielema has been telling his players, it’s time to play Big TEN football now and it’s time to open up the playbook. Bielema has been keeping his plays on offense to a minimum the last 3 weeks, because he didn’t want to show too much to the other Big 10 rivals. Plus, while the Badgers have been playing teams like Wofford and Nothern Illinois, the Spartans have been getting banged up against big programs like Notre Dame and had to open up their playbook. In fact, here’s what Bielema was quoted in saying: “But in fighting to try to win those games, the Spartans had to reveal more of their playbook than the Badgers did in their wins over Northern Illinois and Wofford.” Bottom line, the Badgers have been scouting the Spartans for 3 weeks now and they are a -3 point home favorite this Saturday. When the Badgers are a -3 point or less home favorite, they are 7-3 SU and ATS since 1996. Take Wisconsin.
Evan Altemus
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North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -2.5
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Georgia Tech has gone from being everyone’s “up and coming team” to in everyone’s doghouse after their blowout loss at Miami. However, after watching Paul Johnson for several years at Navy, I truly feel that he is one of the best coaches in college football. He is a great tactician and motivator, and he looked truly embarrassed after the televised road loss at Miami last week. I expect for him to have his team really prepared for this game, especially with two extra days to prepare. This game is also a big revenge factor for the Yellow Jackets, as they were blown out 28-7 last year at North Carolina. However, a closer look at that game shows another story. Georgia Tech actually moved the ball very well on the ground, and they even out gained the Tar Heels by over 100 yards! North Carolina’s offense has looked very anemic this year, as it appears that they really miss their play maker wide receivers from a year ago. Even though I’m not high on this Georgia Tech defense this season, I still think that they will be motivated enough to shut down the North Carolina offense. The Yellow Jackets have a good home field advantage as well, and their fans will be hyped for this home game as well. Look for Georgia Tech to get the home win as a small favorite. Be sure to get this number under a field goal as well.
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3 UNIT SELECTION GEORGIA TECH
DR BOB
3 Star Selection
STANFORD (-7.5) 38 Washington 21
Washington pulled off the biggest upset of the season so far with their 16-13 win over USC and the Huskies are certainly a much improved team under new head coach Steve Sarkisian, but the Huskies are an average team at best and are now clearly overrated. Washington's offense is clearly better with Jake Locker back at the controls after missing most of last season. Locker has been very good so far in averaging 7.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.3yppp to an average quarterback. Locker is also the best runner on the team (97 yards on 21 rushing plays), as the running backs have been horrible and leading rusher Chris Polk has averaged just 3.7 ypr. Overall the Huskies' attack has generated 5.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 4.8 yppl to an average team, so that unit is solidly above average.
The problem with Washington is a defense that isn't any better than last year's sorry group. The Huskies' stop unit has allowed 6.5 yppl or more in all 3 of their games, including Idaho and they've allowed an average of 6.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. The defense is actually worse than the offense is good and Washington's upset of USC was a fluke given that the Huskies were out-gained 4.3 yppl to 6.6 yppl by the Trojans, who lost because of a -3 in turnover margin and not because Washington is a good team.
Stanford had a very good rushing attack last season but had a problem at the quarterback position, yet they were still better than average offensively in 2008. The rushing attack is still strong with Toby Gerhart back after rushing for 1136 yards at 5.4 ypr last season, and Jeremy Stewart is a good chance of pace back that has averaged 6.5 ypr on his 16 carries. The difference with Stanford's offense this season is the emergence of redshirt freshman Andrew Luck, who has averaged 8.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback). With a good pass attack to go with the running of Gerhart, the Cardinal are tough to stop and have averaged a robust 7.0 yppl in 3 games, including 6.5 yppl against a good Wake Forest defense. The Cardinal averaged a combined 7.3 yppl and 40.5 points in two games against bad defensive teams Washington State and San Jose State and they should score about 40 points tonight against a bad Washington defense.
Stanford's defense is still a slightly worse than average unit, as it was a year ago, so Washington will score a good number of points, but they aren't likely to score as many as their defense gives up. Basically. you have two good offensive teams (although Stanford's is better overall because of their ability to run) and one team with a horrible defense (Washington) against a team with a slightly worse than average defense and superior special teams. My ratings favor the Cardinal by 13 points in this game and Washington applies to a very negative 9-46-1 ATS road underdog letdown situation that is based on their upset win last week. The Cardinal, meanwhile, apply to a 106-43-4 ATS situation and a 107-47 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Jim Harbaugh is also a perfect 6-0 ATS at home for the Cardinal and I'll take Stanford in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10 points.
I'll also consider Over 54 points or less a Strong Opinion since my ratings project 61 1/2 points.
2 Star Selection
NAVY (-28.0) 42 Western Kentucky 7
Western Kentucky is the worst team in Division 1A football and their defense is so bad that they made Tennessee's offense look good (the Vols racked up 657 yards at 8.6 yards per play in a 63-7 win over WKU). In 3 games Western Kentucky has allowed an average of 509 yards at 7.9 yppl to Tennessee, South Florida and Central Arkansas, a 1AA team that averaged 7.6 yppl in last week's 28-7 win over the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has allowed 7.2 yards per rushing play, so stopping the Navy option attack is something that is not going to happen. While Navy is scoring on nearly every possession the Hilltoppers' pathetic offense 3.6 yppl, including just 3.8 yppl against Central Arkansas, will struggle to move the ball against a solid Navy defense that has allowed a respectable 5.4 yppl despite facing Ohio State and Pitt, who actually has a good offense this season. Since 2003, when Navy began their run of winning seasons, the Midshipmen are 11-2 ATS when facing a team that has allowed 4.8 ypr or more on defense and they should run away with this one. My ratings favor Navy by 33 points and teams that allow 6.5 ypr or more (after 2 or more games) are just 27-57-1 ATS in all games - and the Hilltoppers apply to a 3-30 ATS subset of that trend, which works even if the line is huge. Navy would apply to a 124-58-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator at -28 or less and I'll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at -28 or less and consider Navy a Strong Opinion from -28 1/2 to -31 points.
2 Star Selection
UL Monroe 31 FLORIDA ATL. (-3.5) 27
Florida Atlantic has a good quarterback in Rusty Smith, who should finally be able to show his skills off after facing the tough defenses of Nebraska and South Carolina. However, the Owls' inexperienced and thin defense has been run over for an average of 278 rushing yards at 8.6 yards per rushing play in their first two games and that's bad regardless of the opposition (Nebraska and South Carolina would combine to average 5.2 yprp at home against an average defense). UL Monroe has a good back in Frank Goodin, who averaged a decent 4.1 ypr against the tough defenses of Texas and Arizona State, and a good running quarterback in Trey Revell, who has scrambled for 322 yards on 40 rushing plays in a career that consists of about 6 full games. UL Monroe ran for 354 yards at 6.9 yprp against Texas Southern, whose run defense is about as bad as Florida Atlantic's run defense, so I expect Goodin and Revell to run all over the Owls in this game. Revell is also a decent passing quarterback and the FAU pass defense is terrible too so scoring points won't be much of a problem for UL Monroe either. ULM actually has a decent defense by Sun Belt standards and a unit that is certainly better than FAU's stop unit, so we have an underdog that will be able to run the ball effectively and has a better defense than the favorite. That's usually a recipe for success. In fact, UL Monroe applies to a very good 151-61-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator and teams that allow 6.5 ypr or more (after 2 or more games) are just 27-57-1 ATS in all games - and FAU applies to a 3-30 ATS subset of that trend. The Warhawks are also 16-5 ATS in Sun Belt road games under coach Charlie Weatherbie, whose teams are 57-31 ATS away from home in his coaching career. I'll take UL Monroe in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars at +4 or more.
Strong Opinion
UNDER (53) - Mississippi (-4.0) 24 SOUTH CAROLINA 21
Prior to the beginning of the season my ratings would have favored Ole' Miss by 6 1/2 points in this game, but the Rebels haven't been as sharp as expected offensively and not quite as good defensively as I projected. The Rebels have averaged 6.9 yards per play, but they've done so against two bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 6.7 yppl to an average attack. Mississippi is better offensively than what they've shown so far, but they're certainly not as potent as last year's team. South Carolina has another strong defense based on the 4.3 yppl that they've allowed in their 3 games (against an average group of offensive teams) and the 6.5 yppl that they allowed to Georgia doesn't look so bad given how good Georgia's offense has proven to be. The problem with the Gamecocks is an offense that was just mediocre last season and was worse than that until averaging 8.2 yppl against Florida Atlantic last week. Of course, Florida Atlantic hasn't been able to stop anyone, so there are still concerns about Steve Spurrier's offense - although I do rate them at 0.2 yppl better than average heading into this game. That unit is at a disadvantage against an Ole' Miss defense that has been 0.6 yppl better than average in two games this season (4.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yppl against an average defense) and is better than that in my ratings (0.9 yppl better than average). My updated ratings favor Mississippi by 3 points with a total of 43 points, so I'll lean slightly with the Gamecocks at +3 1/2 or more and I don't understand how the total can be so high.
The average points scored in college football this season is 49.0 points and here we have a case where South Carolina's defense is at least as good as Mississippi's offense and Mississippi's defense is much better than the Gamecocks' offense. With that being the case the total should be under the national average of 49 points and my ratings project 45 points. I'll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 51 points or higher.
Strong Opinion
Fresno St. 26 CINCINNATI (-16.5) 37
Cincinnati was my second highest rated Big East team prior to the season (behind West Virginia), so it's not surprising that the Bearcats are exceeding expectations (I used them as a Strong Opinion as a dog in their week 1 blowout at Rutgers). However, the line is starting to catch up with how good Cincy is and the Bearcats apply to a very negative 18-74-2 ATS big home favorite situation against a Fresno State team with an explosive offense and a coach with a 25-6 ATS record as a non-conference underdog of more than 3 points - including an overtime loss at Wisconsin this season. Fresno State's offense has moved the ball as well as any team in the nation this season, averaging 7.1 yards per play, including 6.8 yppl against Wisconsin and Boise State, who are pretty good defensively. Cincy's defense has been better than ever despite just 1 returning starter from last year's stingy unit and the Bearcats' offense has averaged 7.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. It's tough to go against Cincinnati, but they're in a very negative situation and the line is close to fair (I make it Cincy by 17). I'll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at +16 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Minnesota 27 NORTHWESTERN (-1.5) 23
Minnesota gave #6 ranked California a battle last week before giving up two 4th quarter touchdowns to lose 21-35. Particularly tough on the Bears was potential All-American WR Eric Decker, who caught 8 passes for 119 yards with 2 receiving touchdowns while also throwing a TD pass on a fake reverse. Decker has 27 catches in 3 games and if he can do that much damage against a Cal secondary that is one of the nation's best then he should feast on a Northwestern defense that may be without their top CB Sherrick McManis for a 3rd consecutive week (he's questionable). Northwestern's pass defense looks good based on their raw stats, allowing just 5.1 yards per pass play, but they've also faced 3 horrible passing teams in Towson, Eastern Michigan and Syracuse, who would combine to average 4.6 yppp against an average defensive team. Northwestern has also struggled to defend the run, allowing Eastern Michigan and Syracuse to average 5.6 yards per rushing play the last two weeks. Minnesota should be able to move the ball well in this game, especially if McManis is still sidelined.
The Wildcats have played well in one aspect this season, which is the passing game on offense, as quarterback Mike Kafka has averaged 7.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Kafka for some unknown reason has not taken advantage of his great running skills this season and Northwestern's running backs are terrible, which has resulted in just 4.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.6 yprp to an average team. Minnesota defends the run very well, as they've allowed just 4.2 yprp for the season and held Cal's vaunted rushing attack to just 4.5 yprp last week, but Minnesota has been just average against the pass (6.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average team) so Kafka should have success through the air.
Overall my ratings favor Minnesota by 1 1/2 points in this game and the Gophers apply to a solid 115-58-5 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and a 57-29-1 ATS game 4 angle. The road team in this series is also 13-1 ATS the last 14 meetings and I'll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +1 or more.
Strong Opinion
TEMPLE (-3.0) 31 Buffalo 23
Buffalo was not a good team last season, just a lucky one. The Bulls were out-gained 5.5 yards per play to 6.1 yppl but were +18 in fumble margin, which is almost completely random. The Bulls have more than adequately replaced 4 year starting quarterback Drew Willy with talented sophomore Zach Maynard (65% completions and 7.3 yards per pass play) but the rushing game is terrible without injured star RB James Starks (just 3.8 yards per rushing play) and the defense is still bad (5.8 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team - they were also 0.7 yppl worse than average last season). This year's Bulls are actually about the same from the line of scrimmage as they were last season, but they aren't as lucky (-6 in turnover margin) and are still overrated based on last year's luck induced success.
Temple, meanwhile, has been improving each season under coach Al Golden and this year's team has played well despite their 0-2 record. Losing at home 24-27 to a Villanova team that is ranked #2 in Division 1AA (FCS) is actually impressive given that the Owls out-gained the Wildcats 7.9 yppl to 5.2 yppl in that game and only lost by 3 points despite being -4 in turnover margin. The Owls also played decent against #5 ranked Penn State on the road, limiting the Nittany Lions to 5.5 yppl and gaining a respectable 4.0 yppl on offense (Penn State would allow just 4.1 yppl at home to an average division 1A team). Temple quarterback Vaughn Charlton has averaged an impressive 7.8 yards per pass play in two games to make up for a bad rushing attack and the Owls' offense looks about the same as that of Buffalo (better than average pass attack and bad rush attack). The Owls, however, are much better defensively and my ratings favor them by 8 points in this game, which gives Temple a solid 55.7% chance of covering based on the historical accuracy of my early season ratings. Buffalo is 16-6 ATS on the road under coach Turner Gill (1-1 this year), but I'll consider Temple a Strong Opinion at -3 or less and a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
Gold Medal Club
TCU Moneyline
Arizona State +
Arizona Moneyline
Indian Cowboy
4 units Florida Over 53
4 units Arizona St. +12.5
4 units Vanderbilt Over 48
4 units Auburn -33
Pointwise Phone Service
4* BYU, PENN ST
3* MICHIGAN, CINCY, MICHIGAN ST, BAMA, AIR FORCE, LOUISVILLE
2* NORTH TEXAS, AUBURN
DAVE MALINSKY
6* Alabama -16
4* Wake Forest +1.5
4* Indy/Mich Under 54.5
4* Ohio +24
4* Florida/Kentucky Under 53.5
4* Purdue +7
4* TTech/Houston Under 74.5
4* Oregon State -1