Mike Handzelek
Minnesota U vs. NorthWestern
Pick: Minnesota U +2.5
The Golden Gophers showed a lot of class in hanging with powerful California last week (tied in the 4th Qtr.) before some costly INT's. On the other hand, the Wildcats gave up an alarmingly high dose of yardage to Syracuse yielding 471. Remaining in the minds of Minnesota is last season's loss to the Wildcats. They hovered @ 7-1 before that game and went into a downward spiral shortly thereafter. Revenge is in order here. The Golden Gophers were very respectable on the Big Ten road last year. I look for QB Weber to keep his composure this week as he should have easier pickings with 2 cornerbacks & a linebacker hurt for Northwestern. This series has been dominated by the road team ATS as 13 of the last 14 has been covered by the visitor. The dog has also dominated covering 5 of 7. We say to buy the point to + 3 1/2 and take the Minnesota Golden Gophers for $200.
Fresno State vs. Cincinnati U
Pick: Fresno State +16.5
This is a scheduling advantage for Fresno State as they played home last Friday night posting 34 on Boise and won't play again til' October 10th @ Hawaii. Cincinnati is coming back from the West Coast trip to Oregon State. The Bulldogs made the last trip to Big East land a happy one when they beat Rutgers 24-7. One thing that has Fresno State buzzing is their ground attack averaging 270 yards a game. That tells us ball control and clock management gets us under the number here. With only 1 defensive starter returning for the Bearcats, it's time for the dog to sneak up and bite them in the end ATS. Cincy QB Tony Pike may be talented enough to get the SU win, but we'll be on the Fresno State Bulldogs who should let it all hang out with 2 weeks off following this one. Buy the point to + 17 1/2 for the line value and take Pat Hill's crew for $200.
North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech
Pick: Georgia Tech -135
North Carolina has a 3-0 record coming in & should continue their assault on their opponents in this ACC matchup, right? Not so fast! Are Citadel, Connecticut & East Carolina amongst the best teams in college football? Last season saw the Tar Heels knock off the Ramblin' Wreck 28-7 but 3 series started in Tech territory for a big advantage. GT Coach Johnson knows his team put up 423 yards versus NC last season but unfortunately self-destructed. I'm sure his troops will be more opportunistic on the other end this time around @ Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. The good news hard facts state that Georgia Tech was a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS off a loss last season. These games were @ home like this week and the average scoring was in GT's favor 36-19. Paul Johnson has his team ready after a loss and revenge is in definite order here. Other numbers we cannot ignore are Tech's PERFECT 7-0 mark ATS at home before back-to-back road games & a convincing 9-3 ATS off a double-digit conference road loss. Take the Yellow Jackets outright for $200.
Marshall vs. Memphis
Pick: Memphis -3
Memphis got their first win last week versus UT-Martin 41-14 and is blistering with confidence against a Marshall squad who invade Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. The former Maryland Terrapin QB Tyler Bass looked sharp in his first start (4 TD passes, 21-27 for 293 yards) after taking over for Arkelon Hall. Marshall is more like the Blundering Herd in this situation going 1-6 ATS as a road underdog of less than a touchdown. Head Coach Mark Snyder has not has success in competitive games (-7 to +7) versus the spread going just 5-12. Marshall is also 2-5 ATS on the road off a SU dog win. The Thundering Herd hasn'e held opponents down on the orad the last 27 going 3-24 SU when travelling. Their ATS record during this stretch is laso miserable @ 6-19-2. The home team has won all 4 SU in this series so we're seeing the weak roadie Marshall biting the dust here. Take the Memphis Tigers but buy to - 2 1/2 for $200.
Rutgers vs. Maryland
Pick: Rutgers -2.5
Sometimes doom and gloom follows a team and it's real tough to get the monkey off their back. Maryland is one of those teams. They go up against a much better defense than they saw from the Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee State last week. This is a Maryland team that needed OT to beat Div. I-AA James Madison in Week 2. Giving up an average of over 200 yards raises the red flag even @ Byrd Stadium in College Park. Losing 116 career starts across the front lines suggests that the Terrapins' struggles will continue until some experience re-surfaces. Even though the Terps have been a pesky home dog in the past, they haven't put out a product like this in quite some time. One more thing you must realize. Revenge is BIG on Rutgers & their Coach Greg Schiano's mind. It was visiting Maryland who upset them in 2007 knocking them from the unbeaten ranks. Our Weak Sister Going Nowhere is to play against Ralph Friedgen's Terps and lay the -2 1/2 with the Scarlet Knights for $200.
Strike Point Sports
3-Unit Play. Take Georiga Tech -2.5 over North Carolina
Tech at home is a tough out, especially with their option attack. UNC has yet to click on offense this year, and this is not defense to face with a struggling offense. I see a low scoring game, but in the end enough big plays made from both sides of the ball from the Yellow Jackets.
3-Unit Play. Take Minnesota +1.5 over Northwestern
I think Minnesota has shown more this year, notably their well played game last weekend against Cal. Northwestern allowed too many points and yards to a Syracuse team that lost to these Gophers. Minnesota is a notch or two above the Wildcats in the Big Ten, and it will show here. The road underdog wins.
3-Unit Play. Take Toledo -2 over FIU
54 points posted two weeks ago against Colorado and then shutout last Saturday against Ohio State, but Toledo will find a balance between those two efforts this week. Florida International doesn't have the offense to score with the Rockets, at least if the Toledo defense makes a modest effort. I think the winner could have at least 30 here, but the more liklier of the two of scoring that much is the MAC team. We back the better offensive side.
8-Unit Play. Game of the Year. Take Oregon State -2.5 over Arizona
The Beavers have dominated this series. Oregon State is 9-1 ATS in the last ten meetings and have also covered nine of their last eleven home games overall. And Corvallis is not an easy place to play for opposing teams. And even more so, Arizona has not shown a consistent ability to win on the road in the Mike Stoops Era. 9-18 overall away from Tuscon and 8-13 in Pac-10 play under the former Oklahoma assistent. Mike Riley will have his team ready after a competitive loss to a very good Cincy team last time out. Personnel wise, speed is big for the Rodgers brothers. Jacquizz at tailback and James at wide receiver are touchdown threats every time they touch the ball. Arizona hasn't shown they can stop the ground game, and they face their toughest test with the weapons that the Beavers have on the outside. You also combine the fact that Arizona has not gotten much production from the quarterback position so far and are switching it up and giving sophomore Nick Foles his first college start. That bodes well for the Oregon State defense and the team as a whole at home. Beavers control this game and come through with a cover as our College Football Game of the Year.
3-Unit Play. Take Washington +7.5 over Stanford
Several factors make this game not a letdown spot for Washington. Not only does having a first year head coach not wanting to get caught in a trap spot, but Jake Locker also missed this game last year as well. Stanford beat UW in Seattle last year, so Locker and the Huskies will want to seek out another Pac-10 victory and make up for their awful 2008. And with the line moving over a touchdown, more value is on Washington. But I do think there is a good chance for an outright win, and more likely that than a Cardinal double digit win. Stanford is a good team, but the line is off. Linesmakers are expecting a letdown, but I do not forsee one coming in another crucial conference game for Washington. Take the points.
3-Unit Play. Take Houston -1.5 over Texas Tech
We've been on the Cougars all year, notably having our top futures wager on them with 'Over' 7 wins on the year. Looking really good after their upset win over Oklahoma State, and now we expect it to look golden after knocking off the Red Raiders as well. Offense will dominant this game and by no surprise. But we'll take Case Keenum under center and Byrce Beall with him in the backfield. Houston has so many weapons on offense and an optimistic defense to boot. Cougars win at home in a shootout.
2-Unit Play. Take North Carolina/Georgia Tech 'Under' 47
2-Unit Play. Take Miami/Virginia Tech 'Under' 47.5
2-Unit Play. Take Western Kentucky/Navy 'Under' 50.5
We have a new totals system that we're trying out. These are our first trio of selections and ones that we think will start out a nice profit for us to go along with our normal side plays. We think a sweep of these two isn't out of the question, but two of three would be a nice start as well.
Doc's Sports
6 Unit Play. Take California -5½ over Oregon Top Game of the Week
Not always excited about laying points on the road, especially with our top choice; however, this one has the logic to justify the pick. This Bears team is for real and could win the National Championship before this season is over. Their defense is the unit that really stands out, as they return eight starters. The defensive line is not only deep and but very talented. This does not sit well if you are an Oregon fan, as the talent at the skill positions for the Ducks is not what it used to be. QB Jeremiah Masoli has had problems and his receiving core was hit had by graduation.
As for California, the skill positions are loaded with talent behind RB Jahvid Best and QB Kevin Riley. Expect them to pick apart a defense that returns just four starters. The Ducks allowed more total yards to Purdue and Utah then their offense gained and if that happens here, they will be on the wrong side of the pole. Certainly have to give the edge to Coach Tedford over rookie Coach Kelly. Granted the Bears host USC next week; however, I see no look ahead here, as Tedford will assure that does not happen. No hibernation for the Bears in Berkley! Cal 35, Oregon 14.
5 Unit Play. Take Iowa +9½ over Penn State Top Big 10 Play.
This is the fourth straight home game for the Nittany Lions and they will be looking for revenge after losing last year, 24-23. One would think that the home team should be the call here, but not so fast! This Iowa team is not Akron, Temple, or Syracuse for that matter. The Hawks are loaded on defense with a solid defensive line and linebackers that are as good as anyone in the country. This core should give QB Clarke and RB Royster a real challenge. When one talks about defense, the Nittany Lions linebackers are always mentioned among the best. But this year’s group has been hit hard by injuries.Navorro Bowman is probable with a groin injury, Michael Mauti is out with a torn ACL, and Sean Lee is questionable with a sprained knee. With only four starters back, this unit was very thin already.
As for the Hawks offense, the OL is solid and the QB is in good hands with Ricky Stanzi. The real concern for the Hawks is the running back, with Shonn Greene in the NFL and Jewel Hampton lost due to injury. RB’s Wagher and Robinson have stepped in well and looked very impressive thus far. Always tough to go against the Lions at Happy Valley; however, I think this game will go to the wire. The Hawks have the coaching and the talent to make this a thriller. Iowa won last year with a thriller and Penn State will return the favor in 2009. Penn State 24, Iowa 23.
5 Unit Play. Take Illinois +14 over Ohio State Top Underdog Play.
The Illini opened the season with an embarrassing performance against Missouri and now one has to wonder if this team will stay on the path or throw in the towel? Coming off a bye week and a roster full of talent I expect them to play to their potential this week. Illinois has played the Buckeyes tough the past two seasons winning in Columbus, 28-21 in 2007 and losing, 30-20 in 2008. The game last year was misleading, as Illinois outgained Ohio State by over 100 yards.
As for the Buckeyes, this is not the same team as the past couple of seasons. Their offense is in disarray and they have yet to replace RB Beanie Wells. They have a talented QB in Terrelle Pryor but QB Juice Williams has more ability and leadership then him at the moment. What this really boils down to is that this is just too many points to be laying if you think Ohio State will win the game. Both sides are equal in talent and playing in Columbus certainly does not give the Buckeyes a two touchdown advantage. Would like to call the upset; however, I feel the Buckeyes will pull it out by a field goal. Ohio State 27, Illinois 24.
4 Unit Play. Take Over 48 in Minnesota @ Northwestern Top Totals Play.
Neither team has been able to establish a strong running attack and have had to rely on the pass in order to move the football. Passing slows down the clock and gives each team more possessions and more time to light up the scoreboard. Look for a lot of that in this game, especially since no team has an outstanding defense. This is a very tough game to pick a winner and I would wager that whoever has the ball last will emerge victorious in what will be a high scoring affair. Have no real choice in who will come out on top, but this game will go way over the number. Northwestern 31, Minnesota 30.
4 Unit Play. Take Wake Forest +1½ over Boston College
Went against BC last week as one of our top plays and easily won and will ride the horse against this week. As I previously mentioned, the Eagles lost most of their defensive firepower to graduation and this season’s linebackers have been hit really hard by injuries. BC has still not named a quarterback for this game and the offense is really sputtering. They got just four first downs and 54 yards last week vs. Clemson.
I do not see things getting any better here facing Coach Jim Grobe’s team with a veteran offense and a defense that has been much better then predicted. The Demon Deacons have a major edge at quarterback here with Riley Skinner and look for him to put up big numbers. Wake Forest also have revenge on their minds losing to BC in 2007 & 2008. Coach Grobe and company will be ready for the first road game of 2009. Wake Forest 24, Boston College 10.
4 Unit Play. Take Kentucky +21½ over Florida
No question the Gators are the best team in the land; however, even the powers have their days in the sun and a day in the rain. I totally respect Coach Brooks and although Kentucky does not have the talent of Florida, you can be sure he will have his team ready to play. Kentucky was crushed last year, 63-5 and thus no emotional speech will be needed since pride is at stake. One must remember that Kentucky entered that game last year off of three close encounters with Alabama, South Carolina, and a 1-point victory over Arkansas. The Florida game was the 2nd biggest loss in Coach Brook’s career.
Florida is coming off a victory over Tennessee, but it did not turn out to be the whipping that everyone thought it would be. Throw in the fact that the Gators have some key injuries and some problems with the flu, a cakewalk on Saturday is not in the cards. An angry Wildcat team is nothing to mess around with. Florida 34, Kentucky 24.
4 Unit Play. Take Michigan State +3 over Wisconsin
This is a do or die game for the Spartans, as this team enters the conference opener having lost two straight games. I am sure that Coach Dantonio has pointed out the fact that the real season starts now and they still have a chance to achieve greatness in the Big 10. I felt since the start of the season, this team has a good chance to win the Big 10 since they do not play Ohio State and have Penn State in East Lansing. The QB position is in good hands with Kirk Cousins, who leads the conference in passing rating. They have talented wide receivers that should give a weak Badger secondary trouble all day long. MSU is solid on defense with 8 starters returning and remember that the Spartans did win 3 of 4 road conference games in 2008.
As for Wisconsin, QB Tolzien has looked outstanding and is ranked just behind Cousins in passer rating; however, the Badgers have had problems moving the football on the ground. This will hurt them dearly in the Big Ten, especially with a suspect defense that has trouble getting off the field. Wisconsin has not been behind all season and this game will tell us if they are for real or just pretenders. Look for the Badgers winning streak to end here, as the Spartans are up against the wall and need this win. Michigan State 31, Wisconsin 20.
Strong opinion plays
#76 Take Clemson -2½ over TCU
#91 Take Notre Dame -7 over Purdue
#102 Take Stanford -7½ over Washington
Eddie Vickers
50 DIME - UNC +3
Scott Spreitzer
Big 10 Shocker of Month
Michigan St
Jim Feist
Executive Blowout
New Mexico
Jefferson-Sports
Stanford -7 -130 1 unit
BEN BURNS
Burns total of the Month
I'm playing on Arizona State and Georgia to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams are off back to back high-scoring games. That's helped to keep this number fairly high, which I feel has created excellent value with the UNDER. These teams faced each other at Arizona State last season. That game had an o/u line of 52 and finished with a final score of just 27-10, in favor of the Bulldogs. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair for this year's rematch at Georgia. Note that while they've played high-scoring games within the SEC, the Bulldogs saw their only non-conference game fall well below the total. That game (vs. OK. State) finished with a score of 24-10, staying below the total by 25+ points. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 25-13 the Bulldogs last 38 games (with a total) played in September. While they won last week, the Bulldogs know they need to play better defensively if they want to compete in the SEC and I expect a strong effort from them on that side of the ball this week. I won with the 'over' in last week's Arizona State game, so wasn't surprised to see the Sun Devils score a lot (38) of points. In fact, I was rather fortunate to get that many of them, as the Sun Devils only managed 15 first downs and 338 total yards. That was against UL-Monroe, a team which had lost 59-20 in its only previous 1-A game. The Sun Devils other game came against Idaho State. In other words, they have yet to face a quality defense. While I'm still not convinced that the offense is "the real deal," I do believe that the Sun Devils defense is stout. They're solid in all areas and have an excellent front seven. While the opponents have admittedly been weak, its still worth noting that ASU is only allowing 149.5 yards and 8.5 points per game. I wouldn't normally mention a kicker but it should be noted that Thomas Weber is out for the Sun Devils and will be replaced with a freshman. That's worth mentioning as Weber was 24-of-25 last season, en route to winning Lou Groza Award. The Sun Devils have seen the UNDER go 7-2 their last nine road games. They've also seen the UNDER go 8-2 the last 10 times that they were coming off back to back victories. Look for those numbers to improve as this series proves lower-scoring than expected for the second year in a row. *10 Top TV Total
Lenny Stevens
20* Stanford
20* Utah
10* Rice
10* TCU
10* PSU
Kelso
100 Units UNLV
Jon Russo
4 Units Cal -5.5
3 Units Clemson -2.5
3 Units Oregon St -3
2 Units BYU -16
Joe Wiz
Pay After You Win Sports Service
Early Saturday PAYW: California
Late Saturday PAYW: Texas Tech
Bonus MLB: Yankees
Early Bird NFL PAYW: New Orleans
NCAAF 3-8 (-5.80 units)
NFL: 4-2 (+3.20 units)
MLB: 8-1 (+6.30 units)
Vegas Sports Experts
10* Take NY Yankees (-175) over Boston (Power Play)
Bonus Play
5* Take Atlanta (-200) over Washington
FRANK PATRON
20000 UNIT NON CONFERENCE LOCK
BOISE STATE BRONCOS -16.5
NEXT UPDATE AT 10:30 SO NO NEED TO KEEP HITTING REFRESH!!
Maddux Sports
(added plays)
4 units on Wisconsin -3
3 units on Cincinnati -16.5
4 units on UAB +14
3 units on Rice +7
3 units on Stanford -8.5
5 units on Penn State -9.5
3 units on Arizona +3
3 units on UL Monroe +3.5
3 units on Arkansas St -2.5