Rocco Vincintore Guaranteed Selections
MONSTER LATE INFO COLLEGE FOOTBALL B-E-A-T-I-N-G
Utah -14
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
Game: Colorado State Rams @ BYU Cougars
Selection: 5* BYU Cougars -16
The BYU Cougars look to rebound after suffering a very tough blowout loss at home to the Florida State Seminoles last week 54 to 28 breaking an 18-game home win streak. Even though the scoreboard was lopsided the yards per game was rather close with the Cougars actually outgaining the Noles 512 to 473. The key for FSU in that win was the fact they won the turnover battle with BYU a -5 in that department.
Tonight the Cougars open conference play and should be focused as they are coming off a loss and the Rams played them very close last year in Fort Collins. Add to that the Rams surprised Nevada last week winning SU as an underdog so the Rams will certainly have the Cougars undivided attention here tonight.
Colorado State is 3-0 this season but the wins have come against the likes of Nevada, Weber State and an overrated Colorado squad. In fact the Rams struggled against Weber State winning 24 to 23 as a 13.5 point home favorite. In that game they were held to 2.7 yards per carry and a total of only 63 yards rushing. Defensively they held Weber State to 58 yards rushing but gave up over 250 yards through the air and 8.9 yards per catch. Not good news when facing BYU’s QB Max Hall who is completing 69% of his passes for 315 yards per game.
In the Rams win over Nevada they took advantage of three Wolfpack turnovers but were outgained in that contest. They opened the season with a win over in-state rival Colorado Buffalos who have shown they were overrated and not deserving of the favorite status. Tonight’s contest will be their first true test and one we believe they will come up short in versus a motivated Cougars squad.
CSU QB Stucker has really struggled out of the gate his team has used turnovers and poor performances by the opposition to get that 3-0 record. He is only completing 50 percent of his passes for an average of 192 yards per game with a 4-3 TD/INT ratio. He will be in for a long night against this aggressive and talented Cougars defensive unit just ask Sooners QB’s about their ability.
Colorado State is 2-5 ATS playing away with conference revenge and 1-5 ATS on the road off back-to-back home games. CSU is also 1-5 ATS as underdogs of 7 or more when facing an opponent off a double-digit straight up loss in their last game. We know that underdogs in Game Four of the season have struggled when they are 3-0 and coming off a bowl season last year posting a record of 19-31-2 against the spread. Those numbers get worse when they are facing a team that won eight or more games last season going 11-23 ATS in that situation. One final element to that system tells us if their opposition is coming off a loss of less than thirty points they are 3-17 against the spread. All systems are go for a Cougars win and cover based on the tech set and system.
A check of the database we find that BYU is active in one of our CFB Systems that tells us to Play ON a home favorite of 3-42½ points before a lined home game with less than 6 days rest and not off a conference road favorite SU win. These home favorites are 14-0-1 ATS and average covering the spread by almost 10 points per game.
With solid support coming from our fundamental indicators as well as our technical elements we will lay the chalk here as the Cougars bounce back from a tough loss and bring the Rams back down to earth.
Graded Selection: 5* BYU Cougars 39 Colorado State Rams 17
UNLV Rebels @ Wyoming Cowboys
Selection: 4* UNLV Rebels -3
The UNLV Rebels hit the highway for a meeting with the Wyoming Cowboys in Laramie on Saturday afternoon. UNLV is 2-1 on the season and just a few seconds from being a perfect 3-0 on the year. The Rebels are coming off a 1 point win last week versus Hawaii 34 to 33 at home the week before they fell to Oregon State 23 to 21 as a 6.5 point underdog.
Rebels QB Clayton threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns in their comeback win against Hawaii last week. We expect Clayton and the Rebels to have another big day on offense with the Cowboys giving up 283 yards passing per game on 61 percent completions. They will face a Wyoming stop unit that has done little to stop anyone allowing 31.5 points per game at home this season.
UNLV has covered the last three straight in this series and 5-1 ATS when playing in Laramie. Wyoming is 4-25-1 ATS in their last 30 conference games including 2-17 ATS when coming off a SU loss in their last game.
Wyoming is ranked 99th on offense averaging 312.3 yards per game. The Cowboys are rushing for an average of 136.3 yards per game but that number is definitely skewed by the fact they rushed for 246.0 yards on 5.1 yards per carry against Weber State. In their two most recent games against decent defensive teams they only managed 85 yards on 2.5 yards a carry against Texas and 76 yards on 2.2 yards per carry last week versus Colorado.
Wyoming has little in the way of an aerial attack averaging 176.0 yards passing per game. They have used two different QB’s versus Texas and Colorado with them only completing 44 percent of their passes. Lack of real talent and a very weak offensive front have caused 11 sacks and poor performances no matter which one is under center. At home this season they have only managed to score an average of 19.5 points per game.
The Cowboys are 5-21 ATS after gaining less than 275 total yards in their previous game, 7-19 ATS their last 26 games installed as an underdog, 16-35-1 ATS after scoring less than 20 points in their last game, 3-13 ATS after gaining less than 100 yards rushing in their last game, 2-9-1 ATS their last 12 in Laramie, 5-23-1 ATS their last 29 games overall, 1-11-1 ATS when facing a winning team and 0-5 ATS as an underdog in this price range.
With significant fundamental advantages and strong technical support we will back the visitor here as the Rebels grab an all important conference win on the road in a place they have had success. Lay the short price as the Rebels continue the trend by defeating the Cowboys and covering the spread.
Graded Selection: 4* UNLV Rebels 31 Wyoming Cowboys 17
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Selection: 3* Alabama Crimson Tide -17.5
This will be the SEC opener for the Pachyderms as they host the Razorbacks of Arkansas on Saturday afternoon at the capstone. Bama has won seventeen consecutive SEC openers and number eighteen is just sixty minutes away.
Arkansas will be seeking some revenge as the host went into Fayetteville last season and blasted the Razorbacks 49 to 14. To gain revenge you must have the players to enforce your will upon your opponent and that is where Arkansas will fall short today with little change for them since last season and nothing but positives and improvement for their opponent spells another horrible outcome versus this group of pachyderms.
Arkansas has talent on the offensive side of the ball and have proven to be somewhat explosive under second year HC Bobby Petrino. The Achilles Heel for this Razorbacks team is their defense which was exposed last week versus a so-so Georgia offense giving up 533 yards on 8.9 yards per play. What kept them in that game was Georgia’s poor performance on the defensive side of the ball and that will not be the case today as the Razorbacks face probably the most physical defense they will see this season.
The Arkansas defense will face a much more balanced attack from the Tide on Saturday. They are certainly a Saban offense, they beat you down with a powerful rushing attack that averages 287 yards per game on 6.7 yards per rush. Tide QB Greg McElroy has led this balanced attack with an average of 8.7 yards per pass play and a total of 244.7 yards per game through the air. This Tide team is averaging 46.5 points per game at home and 42.3 points per game overall.
Alabama has had two weeks to prepare for this SEC opener in that they faced two Sun Belt teams at home the last two weeks. But if we go back to their season-opener against Virginia Tech we see they had their way with them also piling up 508 yards of total offense on 6.5 yards per play against a very good Virginia Tech defense.
The real question in this game will be how Bama’s “D” will handle the Arkansas offense. Razorbacks’ QB Ryan Mallett will be making his first road start but he has played well to this point in the season having a solid outing in the loss to Georgia although that game was of course at home. The Tide returned 8 starters from last season’s defensive unit including three of their four defensive backs. Alabama’s defense is better this season allowing a mere 3.9 yards per pass play and 3.4 yards per play overall compared to 5.0 and 4.3 last season. Those numbers do not tell exactly how good this defense really is because the starters have been pulled early in the last two games because they were blowouts.
Arkansas is 1-5 ATS after allowing more than 40 points in their last game, 0-4 ATS their last 4 games during the month of September and 0-5 ATS after rushing for less than 100 yards in their last game. Alabama is 7-2 ATS their last 9 when installed as a favorite, 4-1 ATS after allowing less than 20 points in their last game, 6-2 ATS after a game where they had 450 or more total yards and 10-5 ATS off two or more consecutive wins. Bama HC Nick Saban is 19-5 ATS at home after a win by 17 or more points and 39-23 ATS off a home win.
A check of the database reveals a system that is active for today’s game. Play against CFB road teams after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game against an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in two consecutive games. Playing against these road teams has produced a record of 46-16 ATS for 74.2% winners!
We will back the much better defensive team playing at home in their conference opener as the Pachyderms trample this group of Razorbacks on Saturday afternoon at the capstone.
Graded Selection: 3* Alabama Crimson Tide 37 Arkansas Razorbacks 14
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Houston Cougars
Selection: 3* Texas Tech Red Raiders +1.5
The Houston Cougars have had a week to enjoy their upset victory over the then number 5 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys while their opponent was locking horns with Texas.
Texas Tech held the high-powered Longhorns offense out of the endzone until the second half of their game last week and made a game of it until the fourth quarter. Tech QB Taylor Potts hit on 46 of 62 for 420 yards passing in the loss at Texas. He has stepped right into the Mike Leach offense and they don’t appear to be missing a beat.
Key here will be how well the Cougars defense can contain the Potts led attack of Texas Tech. The Cougar offense returned eight starters from a number 2 ranked offense in 2008 but their defense was ranked 101 in the country and has shown very little improvement in that department even with the win over the Cowboys two weeks ago.
The Cougar defense gave up 194 yards rushing and 240 yards through the air in the win over Oklahoma State. They will not catch a Red Raiders team off guard this week and their defense will certainly be put to the test here tonight.
Houston is 3-9 ATS after a SU win and 17-35 ATS following an ATS win in their last game. Texas Tech is 5-0 SU and ATS following a game against Texas, 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five in this series, 38-14 ATS off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS when facing teams that have a winning record at home.
A check of the database reveals a system that is active for tonight’s contest. Play ON a non-conference road team (not a favorite of more than 7 points or underdog of more than 3 points) off a SU loss of 3+ points & ATS win/push not seeking revenge for an ATS loss of more than 3 points last season vs. an opponent not off a home game. These road teams are 12-1-1 ATS and average covering the spread by 13.3 points per game.
With the Cougars riding high off their win overconfidence and a strong offensive unit in Texas Tech will bring them back down to earth. Take the point(s) with the Red Raiders as they spoil the Cougars dreams and grab a win on Saturday night in Houston.
Graded Selection: 3* Texas Tech Red Raiders 41 Houston Cougars 34
Seabass
100* Steam Play Stanford
WAYNE ROOT
2009 Football Upset Club
4*Arizona State (+12) over Georgia
7*Stanford (-8½) over Washington
Kelso
15 Minn
5 Iowa
4 Wake
3 TCU
3 S Miss
PPP
3-Ill-KY-Stanford
4-S Fla-Cal-Idaho
5-Iowa
Eexecutive
600% W.FOREST
300% ARIZONA
There are a lot of factors considered when we release a 600% Lock.One of those factors today is momentum. Wake has won their last 2 games at home, and they now go on the road for the first time this season,and it is their ACC conference opener as they take on B.College.BC is coming back home this week after a tough road game against Clemson in their conference opener last week. Wake is playing with big time revenge, as they lost the past 2 in this series and 3 of the last 4.Wake is starting to air it out a bit more downfield which will help open up their rushing attack lead by Josh Adams and Brandon Pendergrass.BC's offense struggled last week, as they only managed 7 points against Clemson,and they are unproven, as their 2 wins are home against Northeastern and Kent St. Wake has already been tested against the likes of Baylor and Stanford. We look for the Deamon Deacons to open up conference play today with a road win.
PREDICTION: W.FOREST 24 - B.COLLEGE 16
Score
500% Notre Dame
Millionaires Club
2* Wake Forrest
Wayne Root
Vegas Legend - Virginia Tech
Millionaire - Arizona State
Billionaire - Colorado State
No Limit - Stanford
Perfect Play - Oregon
Underdog
North Texas
Big Al
Stanford Pac 10 GOM
NC ST GOM
Houston Roadkill
N Texas Conference GOY
Sports Bank
500 NC State
ProPicksWeekly
5 Unit MICHIGAN -19.5 ov Indiana
5 Unit FLORIDA ST. -14 ov So. Florida
5 Unit UNLV -3.5 ov Wyoming
Adam Meyers
6* Utah -14/ Louisville
6* Underdog of the week Illinois + 14/ Ohio St.