Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday September 5,2009

Jim Ashland
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25 DIME - EASTERN MICHIGAN -5.5
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Eastern Michigan
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This team is going to be better than they have been in previous years. Now I'm not talking about bowl contention, but I do think they will be more competitive in the MAC this year. Andy Schmitt is back and he is a big quarterback at 6'4". Last year he threw for 2,644 and 15 touchdowns with 8 picks. Those numbers will improve with 7 receivers returning with game experience including Jacory Stone and Josh Leduc is a strong tight end. Also, the offensive line returns 4 guys that have had either started or have game experience. On defense there are some questions, linebackers will be some what of a problem with the departure of Daniel Holtzclaw but the defensive line is bringing in Junior College transfer to fill the spots and the secondary is returning 3 starters. Yes, this is a unit that gave up 27 touchdowns through the air, however, you must remember Eastern Mich is playing Army, a notorious running team.

Army
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Army's offense has a lot of work to do they only threw 3, yes only 3, touchdown passes last year and only attempted 10 passes per game. In a normal college football game you usually play in between 65-70 snaps that means one out of every 7 offensive plays they tried to throw the ball. That's horrible. Army has a new coach in from Cal Poly. While he was there they ran the triple option to perfection. However, this isn't Cal Poly and Army isn't very good. In college when you play against a team that runs this sort of offense in the middle of the season it can be very difficult to prepare for because it has a lot of motions and fakes. But seeing that Eastern Michigan has been preparing all summer for this I think they get the job done. Also there is not one projected offensive lineman on Army's team who has started a game.

Final Thoughts
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Eastern Michigan is the better team. This is also week 1 Eastern Michigan is going to be excited to play especially at home. I like this game because Army will not be able to expose Eastern Michigan's secondary because they can't throw the ball at all. And Eastern Michigan's offense will be able to score at will against the weak Army 'D'.
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Army 17 - Eastern Michigan 31

15 DIME - ILLINOIS -6.5
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Illinois
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This is a very important season for Ron Zook. This Illinois team needs to play well early. On offense there isn't much of a problem, they have probably the second best WR unit in the nation behind only the Irish. Daniel Dufrene and Jason Ford will both take carries and are both capable of breaking the game open. Also having Dufrene back as a senior I think is very important. The offensive line returns three starters from last year's team. And when the Juice is on, he's as good as anyone. He's entering his senior season, it's time to grow up and I think he will with a lot of the supporting cast back. The defensive unit is a little bit of a mystery. Martez Wilson returns but is going to play middle and they return three starters in the secondary. I'm very interested in how the front seven will play as a lot of guys on defense have game experience but NO returning starters. It is very important for the Illini to stop the run this year.

Missouri
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On offense a ton of questions will be answered as Blaine Gabbert will take the reigns from Chase Daniel. Blaine will be starting his first collegiate football game. Jeremy Maclin is not here anymore, who is going to be their down field threat? Derrick Washington is back at running back and he is a tough player runs hard and is physical. But he's only one player. The offensive line returns three starters and that is a plus. I know how Missouri is going to come out -- they are going to run first and throw second -- they are not going to put a lot of pressure on Gabbert. I just do not see this offense being as explosive as they were last year. Onto the defense... Sean Weatherspoon is one of the best if not the best linebacker in the nation. But they only return four starters return on a defense that was BRUTAL against the pass last year. This secondary gave up on average of 286.6 yards through the air, good enough for dead last in the Big XII.

Final Thoughts
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Illinois' offense has the potential to put up a lot of points this year and it's so important that the Illini get off to a fast start. The defense is a question but if they can clamp down on the run early, I think that Illinois can jump out to a nice lead. Last year Jeremy Maclin had 234 all purpose yards and had 2 scores on special teams, a punt for 45 yards and a kickoff for 99 yards. HE IS GONE. I just cannot see Missouri winning this game. Missouri has to replace Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, Ziggy Hood, William Moore and Stryker Sulak. All have moved on to the NFL. Not to mention Missouri has to replace three players in the defensive backfield and they were BAD. Also, Mizzou head coach Gary Pinkel said in an interview that he will play 5 true freshman on Saturday. That doesn't sound good at all.
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Illinois 41 - Missouri 21

Jimmy Boyd
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5* NCAAF Non-Conference GOTY - Penn State -26
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The Nittany Lions dominated their non-conference schedule last season and I fully expect that to be the case again. They started off the year with a 66-10 win over Coastal Carolina and they'll be looking to send a message right out of the gate that they are every bit as good as last year's team. Quarterback Daryll Clark and running back Evan Royster lead the offense, but I expect Penn State's defense to be the key here. The Nittany Lions ranked 8th in the nation last year in both total and scoring defense and I expect them to be even better this season. The Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the MAC, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Lay the points.

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4* Major Week 1 Underdog Shocker - Toledo +10.5
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Toledo beat a Michigan team last season that was better than the Purdue team they will face Saturday. Plus, this Toledo team, which returns 16 starters is expected to be greatly improved as well. The Boilermakers will be a bottom of the barrel type team in the Big Ten this season. No Curtis Painter and no Kory Sheets equals no offense. The Boilermakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. the MAC and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Take the points.

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4* Major Conference USA Game of the Month - UAB -5
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UAB returns all 11 offensive starters, and I expect this unit, led by QB Joe Webb to torch a Rice defense which allowed 33.0 ppg last season. The Owls won 10 games last year but lost all of their offense and won't be able to answer the call. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September while the Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September. The Blazers are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. UAB finished the season with 3 wins in its last 5 games, and nearly beat Conference USA champ East Carolina. Look for UAB to be jacked up to start the year at home and in conference play.

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3* SMASH - Texas -40.5
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IL Monroe is one of the worst football teams in the country. The Longhorns opened up last football season with a 42-point win over a much better FAU squad. They then posted 42-point wins in their next two home non-conference games. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the S-Belt. Plus, UL Monroe is 7-21 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992. Texas will win by as much as they want to and that should be good enough for a cover here.

WUNDERDOG
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Game: Baylor at Wake Forest
4 units Wake Forest -2 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
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The Demon Deacons have certainly been more of a factor in the ACC the past few years than they had been in the past. The good news is that Riley Skinner returns at QB with an offense that has nine starters returning. This has been great news for teams in the past as those returning nine starters have been a perfect 25-0 the past three years playing an out-of-conference game in the first month of the season. They are 55-7 over the past decade. And with the line set low, this provides a very favorable situation for Wake. Jim Grobe has gotten it done here as they have 28 wins in his last three seasons at the helm. Baylor has not been a factor for a longtime in the Big-12 and won't be this season either, despite an exciting QB in Robert Griffin. He can't do it alone and Baylor has had a lot of key departures from a year ago. Griffin could find the going tough, especially early as his offensive line is going to need some time to develop. In week one, that just isn't likely to happen. I'll go with Wake Forest in this one.

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Game: Western Michigan at Michigan
4 units Michigan -11.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
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The first year for Michigan under Rich Rodriguez was certainly one full of adjustments. They had a horrible season. But his teams are noted for making big strides in year two, and he certainly has the supporting cast in place to do just that in 2009. The offense returns nine starters from last year's team. What does that mean in this game? Home favorites that return 9+ offensive starters that are playing a non-conference opponent during the first month of the season have been premier bets to win the game, having gone 25-0 the past three seasons and 55-7 the past ten seasons. That does not even begin to tell the whole story here. The last five years in this situation the games have been brutally lopsided as the team returning the nine offensive players has won by an average score of 37.5 to 14.8. That is a huge 22.7 points per game. That sets the stage for a Michigan blowout in this one. Michigan is a bit underrated right now, given their disastrous 2008 campaign. We'll take advantage of that and get them here at a line well below what it should be.

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Game: San Jose State at USC
4 units USC -34 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
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The departure of one of the top QBs in the nation (Mark Sanchez) would leave most teams scrambling to find success the following year. But that simply has not been the case at USC. It's more like a yearly occurrence. The offense is loaded with playmakers, and the defense should be one of the top units in the country, if not the top. The Trojans have a veteran line to ease the transition. San Jose State has made strides, but the talent they face week-in and week-out pales in comparison to what they will see here in this one. Last year, they had one of the top defenses in the country, but against a lackluster schedule. The problem was that the three competent offenses they saw in Boise State, Nevada and Nebraska all burned them for an average of 36.3 ppg and this year's version isn't as talented. Offensively, they were held to 17 points or less in seven games, and that came against defenses that aren't even close to what they will face here. I would not be surprised to see the USC defense outscore the Spartan’s offense in this one. The Trojans are 29-17 ATS as a home favorite and 24-12 ATS in non-conference games under Pete Carroll. I like USC in a blowout.

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Game: Nevada at Notre Dame
4 units Notre Dame -14 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
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It has been a long time since Notre Dame has been a player on the National scene. Could this be the year the Irish rise and become a player once again? It could be a special year for two reasons. The first is that the talent level and experience is the most promising in years. And the second is that the schedule is pretty easy. Outside of USC midway through the season, the Irish have a full slate of winnable games on the schedule and it starts with the Wolfpack from Nevada. This will be the first trip ever for a Wolfpack team into South Bend, and it could just add to the normal game one jitters. The Wolfpack can score with the best of them, but the problem is that they can't stop a competent offense. In their four biggest games last year, the defense surrendered 69 points to Missouri, 35 to Texas Tech, 42 to Maryland and 41 points to Boise State. That is an average of 47 ppg. Not only did they all result in losses, but they went 0-4 ATS as well. In the past 15 seasons, the Wolfpack have gone 27-48 ATS when allowing 28+ points and Notre Dame is sure to reach that threshold here. The Irish have a good enough defense to hold them down, but the Wolfpack just doesn't have any answers on defense. In the end, it will cost them. Irish get the win and cover here.

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Game: Missouri vs. Illinois
4 units Missouri +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
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The Tigers lost a lot of talent, but that doesn't mean that there isn't a lot of talent left. They will certainly miss Chase Daniels at QB, but what they do have is an above-average running game that will assist the development of new QB Blaine Gabbert. The defense has certainly seen some potent offenses, so nothing they see from Illinois will shake them. New DC Dave Steckel has already made the necessary changes in discipline and schemes. Juice Williams will lead a dynamic attack for the Illini, but again, Missouri has seen the best QBs in the country, so this isn't going to be anything but business as usual. While everyone expects the Tigers' offense to take a giant step back, I think it will still be great, especially against the back seven of this Illini defense, which is not very good. Missou has won six of the last seven games between these two clubs and Illinois was 1-5 on the road last season. I'll take the points here and go with Missouri.

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Game: U L Monroe at Texas
4 units Texas -40.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
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Laying 40 points? Yeah - in this one, no problem. All you have to do is look at UL Monroe last season playing Mississippi and Auburn. Despite an offense that averaged nearly 30 ppg otherwise, they didn't net a single point in either of those games, while the defense surrendered 93 points! Now they have no QB and have to replace nearly their entire defensive line. It doesn’t help that they facing one of the top defenses, and one of the most explosive offenses in college football. Looking back at some games the Longhorns have played at home against Sun Belt teams provides further evidence that they can cover this big line. Here are four openers against Sun Belt teams: Texas won 52-10, 56-7, 60-3 and 65-0. This line is extremely high, but this Texas team has proven that it can deliver and cover against this type of opponent, and this may be the best Texas team of them all. Think the Longhorns will outgain the Warhawks by 200+ yards in this game? I think it's very, very likely to happen. If it does, it's a good sign as Texas is 44-11 ATS the past fifteen seasons when they accomplish that feat. I'd be surprised if UL Monroe can muster 14 points while Texas should score 60 or more. The Longhorns get the call here.

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Game: San Diego State at U C L A
4 units UCLA -20 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
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The Aztec's head coach Brady Hoke inherits a team that won just two games a year ago and suffered seven losses by 25 points or more. Outside of QB Brian Lindley, the talent level here is going to take the former Ball State coach time to develop and upgrade. This is a lacking team that has gotten blown-out on a weekly basis. The Mountain West has some good teams, but losing seven games by 25+ shows just how far they have to go. San Diego State had no preseason 1st team conference selections (in a lesser conference). They had just one that was chosen for the second team. Meanwhile the Bruins have 16 starters returning so the talent difference in this game is huge. UCLA will field one of the top defenses in the Pac-10, and that will be the deciding factor in this one. San Diego State scored 14 points or less in eight games a year ago. They averaged 9.8 points per game on the road where they went 2-4 ATS. When facing the top four teams in the conference, they lost by an average margin of 34.3 points per game. I don't see anything here that will change that. UCLA has gone 21-9 ATS in their last 30 non-conference home games. UCLA gets the call here.

Indian Cowboy

4 Unit Play. Take Louisiana Tech +13.5 over Auburn

I know that Auburn is looking to rebuild from last year's disappointment - but I expect them to struggle in this game. The Tigers were a dismal 2-9 ATS last year. I just don’t see the Tigers magically improving this year. After all, there are still questions regarding the quarterback situation of this team as both Burns and Todd have their faults. First year coach Malzahn has a lot of pressure to produce results as if the Tigers are willing to get rid of a coach who went 75-27, certainly, they will can the new guy if he has subpart performance early. Louisiana Tech returns quite a bit of starters from last year and this team moved the ball well last year. In fact, La Tech should be able to move the ball very effectively as this team is familiar with the system they run as compared to Auburn who is trying to get used Malzahn's way of doing things. I expect La Tech to be in sync earlier in the game and consequently to fall within the spread and even have a shot at winning this game outright.

4 Unit Play. Take Oklahoma State -5 over Georgia

I just don't buy into the University of Georgia - yet. With a new quarterback and running attack, this team will find it tough in Oklahoma State. OSU is extremely well coached and this is a big game for their program. By handling the Bulldogs, this team can pave the way for what looks to be a very promising season. This team had a tough loss against Oregon in their last contest that they would like to forget and certainly this team has wonderful new facilities at their disposal. Heck, when Boone Pickens throws money down on your school, he expects a return. The Cowboys ended last season 6-0 ATS as a home favorite and are 15-6-1 ATS as favorites by this margin. I'm a fan of Coach Mark, but I just don't see his team being in sync this early on as I feel like they simply have too many holes to fill.

Dave Busk
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3 Unit Pick Take Ohio U (+3.5) over Connecticut
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Year five of the Frank Solich era begins in the home doggie role vs. Connecticut and this might be the best time to face the Huskies in the opener. Connecticut has to replace their quarterback plus their star running back plus they’re installing a new offensive bringing in the no huddle. Something like that could take some time for them to run even half good. While Connecticut defense was sixth in the nation in 2008 and return six starter’s on they defensive unit they will have to face Ohio offense that had a quarterback battle in the spring and return all their wide outs and running backs. I made this game a pick by my numbers and to be able to put (3.5) points in my pocket is something I can’t pass up.

1 Unit Pick Eastern Michigan (-5.5) over Army
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Both teams have hired new head coaches with Army bringing in Rich Ellerson a triple option expert who has coach and had great success at Cal Poly for the last eight years. Eastern Michigan brings in former Michigan and Louisville defensive coordinator Ron English who inherits 16 returning starters from last year with standout quarterback Andy Schmitt and all-Mac receiver Jacory Stone. These two teams played at West Point last year with Army coming out on top with a 17-13 win as a (2.5) point favorite, I think the second time around for Eastern Michigan defense of seeing the option and they amount of depth this team returns we have some value in the home opener.

Allen Eastman
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6-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-6.5) over Syracuse
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This is my Game of the Week. The Golden Gophers are one of the most experienced teams in the country and should be able to take advantage of a Syracuse team that is still trying to find its way. Syracuse has a new coach and a whole new system that they are working on and they are just 2-7 ATS in nonconference games and 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS on the road. They are a much more solid and stable team and they should take care of business here. Syracuse lost 30-10 to big 10 foe Northwestern last year. I can see a similar outcome in this game.

4-Unit Play. Take UAB (-5.5) over Rice
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I’m playing the Blazers in this one mainly because they are at home. The home team is 2-0 in this series and I like the experience that UAB brings to the table here. UAB finished last year on a 4-1 ATS run and I think that they will carry over some momentum and get off to a fast start here.

3-Unit Play. Take Oklahoma State (-4.5) over Georgia
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Oklahoma State is looking forward to making a big impression in their opener. They have one of the best offenses in the country and they are looking forward to sticking it to an SEC team. Mark Richt has been great in opposing stadiums over the last few years but Oklahoma State has revenge from their opener in Athens two years ago (35-14 UGA win). Georgia has a new starting quarterback and running back and Stillwater is still a tough place for even experienced teams to win. I think this one will be close for a half but the playmakers on Oklahoma State are too much.

2-Unit Play. Take Ohio (+3.5) over Connecticut
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Connecticut has been really banged up this month and I think that they might be taking Ohio a little too lightly. The Bobcats played some BCS teams tough last year. They only lost to Ohio State by 12 and to Northwestern by 8. They get this one close to home and are 6-3 ATS as a home underdog over the last few years.

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 53.5 LSU at Washington
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The LSU defense is still one of the fastest and strongest defenses in the country. Usually early in the season the defense is well ahead of the offenses and it results in sloppy play. The Tigers have been a really strong ‘over’ play over the last couple years but I think that the oddsmakers have overadjusted this early in the season. LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson is not really a proven guy and I could see him struggling. On the other side, Jake Locker is more of a runner than a thrower. I see LSU in the 20’s and Washington in the 10’s and this one staying well ‘under’.

Strike Point Sports
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5-Unit Play. Two team 6-point Teaser.

Take Minnesota (-6.5 -> -0.5) over Syracuse
Take UTEP (-8.5 -> -2.5) over Buffalo
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Our first match-up pits a much improved Gophers team against ‘Cuse. Greg Paulus is the starting quarterback, and it’s just this simple. We can’t see a scenario where the former Duke point guard, in his first competitive football game since high school, plays any better than just okay. I mean, this Minnesota team has bowl quality talent, and the pass and catch duo of wide out Eric Decker and quarterback Adam Weber are definitely a top 15 combo in the nation. Freshman MarQueis Gray gives them a running threat under center for another look, and this season the Golden Gophers have a defensive unit that will hold their own in most games. And let’s remember, this is still Syracuse. But being at home and under a new head coach, we will knock the number down and play Minnesota to essentially just earn the victory outright.
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Our second game gives the nod to UTEP. Explosive offense is a given from the Miners with quarterback Trevor Vittatoe. And the Bulls just don’t have the weapons to match Mike Price’s offensive firepower. Not only did quarterback Drew Wily graduate but top offensive option this season in tailback James Starks is out for the season. There’s no one in the backfield for Buffalo who can counterpunch what UTEP does at home here. The C-USA rep is the pick here.

4-Unit Play. Take Wake Forest -2.5 over Baylor
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Here’s an interesting non-conference tilt between unranked teams. Baylor has some legit talk about them with quarterback Robert Griffin III, but their road woes were well evident in 2008. 0-5 away from Waco last season, and the Bears allowed at least 30 points in each of those setbacks. Combine that with a 28-point setback to these Deacons in the opener last season as well, and we’re on Wake Forest to make it two-for-two against Baylor. The weapons quarterback Riley Skinner has around him are far more than what Griffin and Baylor can say. Running backs Josh Adams and Brandon Pendergrass are a solid combination threat, while the passing game will do its job as well with D.J. Boldin and tight end Ben Wooster. Griffin is the better player, but Skinner has a better supporting cast. We back with the small home favorite.

4-Unit Play. Take UAB -5.5 over Rice
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One of our teams to fade this season was the Rice Owls, and this match-up really bodes well for the Blazers. After a season of offensive yards and lots of touchdowns, this is going to be a down and arguably bad season for Rice. There’s really no two ways around it. Having lost Chase Clement and Jarett Dillard, as well as do-it-all James Casey, the offense is bound for regression. Joe Webb could quite possibly be the multi-dimensional threat under center for UAB that Clement was for Rice. He has depth at the wide receiver position and is in a spot this year to really take off in Conference USA. Now let’s not confuse this UAB team for any legit contender, but they have a chance to win five or even six games. And this spot is set up to take it to Rice at home to begin their conference schedule.

3-Unit Play. Take New Mexico State -2.5 over Idaho
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The Aggies’ wins in 2009 might be few and far between, but a 2-0 start to the season is not out of the question. In fact, it’s going to happen. New Mexico State gets Prairie View A&M next Saturday and their opener is a game where they need to take care of business as well. Hal Mumme is out, and first year head coach DeWayne Walker can build off his ‘new regime energy’ and run with it. No more 3-5-3 soft defense and a run ‘n’ shoot offense that proved to be as much gimmick as effectiveness. Granted, still expect the ball to go downfield, but a running game will be evident and hopefully provide more versatility with the ball. Look out for tailback Marquell Colston. He has limited thanks to Mumme’s pass happy system in recent years, but he has 100-yard per game potential and could provide a true option on the ground. He’ll start off strong and be a big piece to a season-opening victory for Walker and the Aggies.

Vegas Sports Informer

3 Unit Play. Take Illinois -6 ½ over Missouri
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Expect Illinois to get its revenge on Missouri tonight as the Illini are 0-2 in their last two meetings. Juice Williams will be the difference for Illinois, as his experience and play-making ability will put the Illini over the top and finally beat the Tigers of Missouri. Illinois is 4-1 ATS in the month of September.

4 Unit Play. Take Texas A&M -14 over New Mexico
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New Mexico looks to be yet in another rebuilding year as New Mexico returns only 9 starters. Last year the offense for the Lobos had issues, but the defense generally kept things interesting. Texas A&M should have no trouble on offense and defense against New Mexico and the Aggies should easily win this game by double-digits. New Mexico is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games and 1-4 ATS as a road underdog.

3 Unit Play. Take Virginia Tech +6½ over Alabama
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Defense will rule this game! With both teams flexing their muscle on defense a low scoring game we should see. With that, too many points to give Va Tech on a neutral field Saturday night. Alabama should win this game but look out for the Hokies as they can easily win this game on defense and special teams. The winner of this game wins by a field goal! Virginia Tech is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.

Doc's Sports

6 Unit Play. Take Toledo +10½ over Purdue
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Weekend. The Rockets were only 3-9 in 2008, however, they did upset Michigan. This club returns 16 starters and I look for this team to be much better in 2009. The Rockets have a new coach in Tim Beckman and he was Oklahoma’s defensive coordinator the last two years. The Rockets had only 10 total seniors in 2008, but they will likely start 13 seniors in 2009.
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As for the Boilers, I picked them to finish last in the Big 10. Coach Tiller has retired and the cupboard is empty for the team in 2009. They must replace QB Curtis Painter and RB Kory Sheets. Both teams start with new coaches and a cat-and-mouse affair should turn this into a defensive battle. I like the points here and in fact will call the upset. Toledo 24, Purdue 21.

5 Unit Play. Take Illinois -6½ over Missouri
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Top Big 10 Selection. The Illini have lost to the Tigers in 2007, 40-34, and in 2008, 52-42, and four straight meetings overall. Illinois has 13 starters back including a powerful offense led by QB Juice Williams and outstanding wide receivers.
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Looking at Missou, they were hit hard by graduation, including the loss of QB Chase Daniels and three of their top receivers including Jeremy Maclin. Missou returns just four starters on defense and if Illinois is ever going to beat them, it will come this season. My only hesitation is that the public will be on Illinois this week. The Tigers were a disappointing 10-4 in 2008 and it appears they will regress even more in 2009, especially with all the good teams in the Big 12 South. The losses start in game one, as Illinois takes out years of frustration and emerges victorious. Illinois 35, Missouri 10.

5 Unit Play. Take Northern Illinois +17 over Wisconsin
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Top Underdog Play. Certainly have to always respect Wisconsin at home; however, this is not a typical Badger team as in years past. No question, Wisconsin has a strong running attack with Zach Brown and John Clay. However, the talent really drops off quickly with the other skill positions. Wisconsin will likely play two quarterbacks in this game and to me this means neither is very good. The offensive line is really banged up and not as strong as in years past without an all-conference player at left tackle. Wisconsin lost six games in 2008, and I look for that total to rise in 2009.
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As for Northern Illinois, the offense should be explosive with QB Chandler Harnish back. The real question will be the Huskies defense, which returns only four starters. The last two openers have been against Big 10 teams and they would have covered the line in this game in both of them, losing 31-27 in 2008 to Minnesota and losing 13-3 to Iowa in 2009. If NIU can stop the Badgers running attack, this could be a barn-burner. Call it close! Wisconsin 27, Northern Illinois 20.

4 Unit Play. Take Under 50½ in Toledo at Purdue
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Top Over/Under Play. Purdue had a bit of a transformation last season and started playing better defense and thus this sets up for a perfect situation to play the under. Both teams have new coaches and I truly believe Toledo has a great chance to win this game straight-up. Purdue held Penn State to just 20 points, Ohio State to just 16 points, and Minnesota to just 17 points in 2008. Purdue ranked fourth in the Big 10 last year defensively and that may be their best chance for success in 2009, with a ball control offense and a strong defense.
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Toledo beat Purdue back in the 1990s during Coach Joe Tiller’s first season at Purdue and I expect history to repeat itself in 2009 during Coach Danny Hope’s first season. Toledo 24, Purdue 21.

4 Unit Play. Take Michigan -12½ over Western Michigan
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Will this be the Michigan team of old or the Michigan team of the past two years? Looks to me like the old assuming Coach Rodriguez can find a quarterback to run his offense.
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The Broncos return only three starters on defense and Michigan should be able to move the ball. The Wolverines lost their openers in 2007 & 2008 and will not take this game lightly and if they have a chance, expect Michigan to run the score up! I realize that Michigan plays Notre Dame next week, but they need every win they can get and thus they will not be looking ahead. Western Michigan has been blown out in their last three openers, losing 39-20 to Indiana in 2006, 62-24 to West Virginia in 2007, and 47-24 to Nebraska in 2008. To me it looks like more of the same in 2009. Michigan 35, Western Michigan 14.

4 Unit Play. Take Texas A & M -14 over New Mexico
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Coach Mike Sherman got a taste of how strong the Big 12 South is last year and the Aggies struggled to a 4-8 record. Playing with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State will make your own squad better and with 16 starters returning expect to see those results in 2009. New Mexico has a new coach and returns just nine starters and is in serious rebuilding mode. The Aggies have next week off and need a big blowout win to get the faithful on their side and expect them to run it up if they can. The homer gets the call and we collect big in the process. Texas A & M 42, New Mexico 10.

4 Unit Play. Take Navy +22 over Ohio State
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The Buckeyes lost some real talent to the NFL but every year they just seem to reload. That will likely be the case in 2009. However, some exclusive information tells me that their offense is not yet at the 2008 level. The line is high because of QB Terrelle Pryor; however, they lost RB Wells and three lineman off of the 2008 squad. It will take time for this year’s squad to find its identity.
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Navy is always competitive and will give maximum effort regardless of the time and score. True, only 11 starters return. However, this team should be better. I like the fact that the Buckeyes have USC next week and it will be tough for Coach Tressel to keep his team focused on this game. This is the type of game where teams get upset. I will not go that far but will easily take the points. Ohio State 24, Navy 10.

Last Games left off of the Ticket
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No. 87 Middle Tennessee State +18 ½ over Clemson
No. 108 Take Memphis +17 over Mississippi
No. 32 Tennessee -3 ½ over Green Bay

Oskeim Sports

Virginia Tech (+7) (-120) over Alabama*
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*The Hokies are a 3* investment at +7 or more (at -125 odds or better), a 2* investment at +6 to +6.5 and become a Strong Opinion at +5.5 or less.
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When investing on college football, wagering on teams with experienced offensive lines pays huge dividends. Indeed, last season, eight of the Top 10 teams in the final Associated Press began the season with at least 65 combined career starts by their offensive lineman. Utah and Mississippi, two of the biggest surprises of 2008, had more than 80 starts of experience. This season, Virginia Tech has 100 career starts by its offensive linemen, while Alabama has just 50 career starts. Moreover, Virginia Tech is a vastly more experienced team overall this season with 15 returning starters, and the Hokies boast one of the most impressive offensive lines in the conference. In fact, after allowing college football's worst sack percentage last year, head coach Frank Beamer decided to transition to a more athletic front five by moving four tight ends to the offensive line.
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Once again, the Hokies will boast an outstanding defense as they return five players to the defensive line and 7 players to the secondary from a 2008 team that allowed a mere 16.7 points per game, including 104 rushing yards (3.2 yards per rush attempt) and 279 total yards (4.9 yards per play). Meanwhile, Alabama recently suffered a significant loss on defense when defensive end Brandon Deaderick was shot on Monday in Tuscaloosa. While Alabama fields one of the best defenses in the country, the Hokies should have success moving the ball based upon a more experienced quarterback and one of the most improved wide receiving units in the nation.
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Finally, scouts have informed me that over 50 Alabama students have contracted the H1N1 virus commonly known as the swine flu, while several Alabama football players are suffering from flu-like symptoms. Over the last two weeks, several Crimson Tide players have missed practice due to fevers and other flu-like symptoms, and Terrence Cody just returned to practice after a bout with the flu. With this game being played at the Georgia Dome where Virginia Tech will be well represented, and Alabama fielding an inexperienced quarterback, take the Hokies and the generous points in this game - invest with confidence.
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Technician's Corner: Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer is 16-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, 31-18 ATS in the first month of the season and 26-16 ATS with a total of 42 points or less. Meanwhile, Alabama head coach Nick Saban is a pedestrian 3-3 ATS in season openers, while the Hokies are a 70% winning proposition as road underdogs. Finally, Virginia Tech is a profitable 13-4 ATS as underdogs since 2001 and 10-3 ATS as underdogs over the last eight seasons!

Rating: 3*
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Investment Note: Please check back on Saturday for a possible investment upgrade. Also, if your sportsbook has Virginia Tech at +6.5 (as 85% of them do at the time of this writing), I strongly recommend buying the hook at -125 odds or better.

CKO
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11* CENTRAL MICHIGAN over *Arizona
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 23 - *Arizona 24
(at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX)
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Central Michigan HC Butch Jones is building a MAC powerhouse at Mt. Pleasant. The Chippewas, who own the
best recruiting class in the MAC, have 10 regulars back on defense and figure to improve considerably with 11
upperclassmen starting on the stop unit. Little needs to be said about QB Dan LeFevour, who completed 69% last season and has thrown for 74 touchdowns and run for an additional 32 scores in his CMU career. His top three targets return, and they combined for 199 catches LY. Arizona is retooling at QB, and running game keyed by Grigsby & Antolin might not be as effective without graduated QB Tuitama (65%, 3088 YP, 23 TDs LY), and with top returning receivers TE Gronkowski (47 recs.) and WR Dean (53) possibly limping from camp injuries.

North Coast Sports Line

4* Power Play
Michigan

Underdog Play of the Week
Washington Huskies

Economy Club Play
Baylor

Big 12 POW
Colorado

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
*Mississippi (-16.0) 40 MEMPHIS 13
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Mississippi was one of the nation's top 5 teams at the end of last season and the only team to beat National Champion Florida, doing so on the road. All 4 of the Rebels' losses last season were by 7 points or less (they were 2-4 in close games) and this season they are once again rated in my top-5 teams (#5).

Mississippi's offense is led by junior quarterback Jevan Snead, who barely lost out to Colt McCoy for the starting spot at Texas a few years ago before transferring to Ole Miss. Snead has a great arm and can get the ball down the field, which helped him average 8.4 yards per pass attempt despite only completing 56% of his passes. Snead did have some problems with interceptions early in the season, throwing 7 in his first 4 games and 4 in the loss to Vanderbilt, but he never threw more than 1 pick the rest of the season and totaled just 6 interceptions in his final 9 games. Snead may be improved this season, but losing big play receiver Mike Wallace (20.1 yards per catch) and probably facing more pressure without left tackle Michael Oher (1st round NFL draft pick) should result in a drop of about 0.5 yards per pass play this season. Losing Oher will probably affect the rushing numbers a bit too, but Ole Miss should still be a better than average running team and I rate the Rebels' offense at 0.8 yards per play better than average after rating at +1.0 yppl last season.
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Mississippi's defense was pretty good early in the season, but the Rebels became great defensively when pass rushing star DE Greg Hardy joined the lineup in game 4 after missing the first 3 games. Hardy also missed games against Arkansas and Auburn in which the defense didn't perform as well, but the Mississippi D was very good in the 8 games that Hardy played rating at 1.2 yppl better than average. The Rebels were only 0.2 yppl better than average defensively in the 5 games that Hardy missed and the sack totals were night and day. Mississippi averaged 1.6 sacks in 5 games without Hardy and 3.8 sacks per game with him and Hardy should enjoy a monster year this season if he doesn't get hurt. The Rebels do lose 1st round NFL draft choice Peria Jerry, who recorded 7 sacks and 11 other tackles for loss. Those are great numbers for a defensive tackle, but Mississippi is so loaded on the defensive line again this season that Hardy probably won't start. The Rebels return starters at the other 3 positions on the defensive line and former top recruit Jerrell Powe finally appears ready to dominate after getting in shape and dominating during the off season. The linebacking corps and the secondary are also loaded with talent and Ole Miss looks to have one of the best defensive teams in the nation and could be just as good as they were in the 8 games that Hardy played in last season.

Memphis has made it a bowl game the last two years despite being a bad team. Last season the Tigers were decent offensively, averaging 5.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, but they were once again horrible on defense. Memphis surrendered 6.1 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that would combine to average just 5.1 yppl against an average team. Memphis as an even worse 1.4 yppl worse than average defensively in 2007 and 1.0 yppl worse than average in 2006, so this is not a problem that is getting solved despite having 8 starters returning on that side of the ball in each of the last two years. This season 7 starters return on the defense, but one of them is not star DT Clinton McDonald, who earned 1st Team All-CUSA honors despite missing 3 1/2 games last season (he had 7 sacks and was also drafted by the Bengals). Memphis was even worse defensively without McDonald last season (-1.3 yppl) and they could be worse defensively this season now that he is gone. The Tigers do have the makings of a good defensive back 7, however, so the pass defense should be much improved while the run defense continues to struggle. I'll rate Memphis at 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively this season but there is a good chance they could be just as bad.
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The Tigers' offense looks like it could be decent again, as quarterback Arkelon Hall returns along with top RB Curtis Steele (1233 yards at 5.6 ypr) and some potentially game breaking receivers. The problem is a rebuilt offensive line that returns just 1 starter, so I don't expect the rushing attack to be quite as good. Hall may face more pressure this season, but he should be improved and his receiving corps is better, so the passing numbers should be solid once again. Overall, the Tigers should be about average offensively once again this season, but there is potential for them to be better if the receivers can reach their potential and the rebuilt line holds up.

I don't expect the Memphis line to hold up well against Mississippi's dominating defensive line in this game and Hall won't have enough time to find his fast set of wide receivers. On the other side of the ball, Jevon Snead and the rest of the offense should have another field day moving the ball on a bad Memphis defense, much like they did last year in racking up 7.4 yards per play. Memphis gained 5.5 yppl in last year's 24-41 loss, but the Rebels were without their two best defensive players in that game as Hardy and Jerry were both out and Mississippi wasn't much better than average defensively in 5 games without Hardy. Memphis this year will face a dominating Ole Miss defense and the Tigers didn't perform well against good defensive teams last season, gaining 183 at 3.2 yppl against ECU, 305 at 4.2 yppl against UCF, and just 238 at 3.7 yppl in their bowl loss to USF. My ratings favor Mississippi by 25 1/2 points in this game and the Rebels also apply to a 94-53-3 ATS week 1 situation. I'll take Mississippi in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 1/2 to -20 points.

Strong Opinion
Missouri 30 Illinois (-6.5) 31 (at St. Louis)
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Illinois was a better team from the line of scrimmage last season than they were in the win-loss column, going just 4-7 against FBS foes despite out-gaining those teams 6.2 yards per play to 5.3 yppl. Quarterback Juice Williams had a very good season overall, but he threw too many interceptions (16) and the defense managed to pick off only 6 passes all season. The Illini are loaded offensively with Williams coming back along with star WR Arrelious Benn and most of the other skill players. The line looks decent and I expect Illinois to be even better offensively in 2009 after ranking 15th in compensated offense in 2008.

The defense was better than average on a national scale last season, but I don't think they'll be quite as good this season without stars CB Vontae Davis, DE Will Davis and LB Brit Miller. There is some talent and the Illini should be solid against the run, but the pass rush is a potential issue and I expect only mediocre pass defense numbers this season.
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Special teams was a big issue with Illinois last season but there is too much talent in the return game to be as bad as they were in 2008, although I still think they'll be worse than average given that the Illini have been worse than average in special teams in 3 of coach Ron Zook's 4 seasons as head coach. Illinois should be bowl bound after last year's disappointing 5-7 season and their is potential for them to be near the top of the Big 10 standings with only one tough conference road game (Ohio State) and with most of their games against other good teams coming at home (Penn State, Michigan State).

Missouri was a very good team last season, rating at 1.6 yards per play better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl better than average on defense while having very good special teams. The Tigers will enter the 2009 season without star quarterback Chase Daniel, without 1st round NFL draft choice WR Jeremy Maclin, and without All-American TE Chase Coffman. There is no way that the Tigers can match last season's great offensive numbers, but they'll still be pretty good. With Daniel at quarterback the Tigers went from average offensively in 2005, to +0.6 yppl in 2006, to +1.0 yppl in 2007 and then to +1.6 yppl last season. New quarterback Blaine Gabbert is considered more of a pro prospect than Daniel ever was and he's looked good in 3 scrimmages, completing 74% of his passes for a solid 7.4 yards per attempt with just 1 interception on 57 passes. Even with the good showing by Gabbert, I expect Missouri to go back the +0.6 yppl level this season but they certainly could be better if Gabbert is as advertised. The rushing attack should continue to be very good with Derrick Washington returning after running for 1036 yards at 5.9 ypr last season, but I don't expect them to match last year's overall rushing numbers (0.7 yards per rushing play better than average) without the contributions of Maclin's 293 yards at 7.3 ypr. Backup De'Von Moore looks promising after averaging 5.6 ypr on 41 carries as a freshman last season and the offensive line is regarded as better than last year's group with highly touted RT Dan Hoch ready to step into the starting lineup after serving as a backup last season. The big drop in the offense will be in the passing numbers, but I still expect Gabbert and a talented group of up and coming receivers to perform at a better than average level with a lot of potential upside. The Tigers probably won't be as explosive offensively this season but they should be good.
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Defensively the Tigers have been consistently good in recent years, rating at 0.5 yppl better than average in 2006, 0.5 yppl better than average in 2007, and 0.4 yppl better than average last season. Last year's numbers may have looked bad (424 yards per game allowed), but that's because the pace of Missouri's games was fast (77 plays per game on defense) and their opponents were very good offensively. The 5.5 yppl that the Tigers allowed came against teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team. Only 4 starters return, but one of them is All-American LB Sean Weatherspoon, who was credited with 18.5 tackles behind the line of scrimmage while defending 10 passes. The defense will regress a bit, as I don't see Weatherspoon getting much better than last year, but the Tigers still figure to be better than average defensively and the coaching are very enthused about the quality and depth along the defensive line. I'll rate Missouri's defense at 0.2 yppl better than average heading into this season.

Missouri lost a lot of star power on offense, but coach Gary Pinkel has done a great job of recruiting in recent years so the cupboard is hardly bare and the Tigers appear to be underrated heading into this season. My ratings favor the Illini by just 1 point and the line opened at Illinois by 3 points and is now up to 6 1/2 or 7 points. Even if the odds makers were correct in making the Illini a 3 point favorite there is still plenty of line value in taking Missouri at +7. However, there is also a lot of variance because it's tough to know exactly how good Missouri's new quarterback is going to be (although I think he'll be good). I'll consider Missouri a Strong Opinion at +6 or more and I'd take the Tigers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 1/2 or more.

Strong Opinion
Cincinnati 27 RUTGERS (-6.0) 26
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Cincinnati only out-scored their 13 FBS opponents by an average of 3.6 points last season, yet the Bearcats were 10-3 in those games thanks to winning all 5 of their games that were decided by 7 points or less. Cincy probably won't come close to 10 wins this season with just 1 returning starter on defense but a healthy QB Tony Pike and a talented group of receivers should keep the Bearcats in the race for the Big East title.

Pike took over at quarterback after Dustin Grutza was injured in game 2 against Oklahoma and then suffered a broken arm a couple of games later. Pike returned at mid-season with a cast on his broken left arm and played pretty well - averaging 6.9 yards per pass in his 10 starts against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback. Pike's numbers should be a bit better this year with star WR Mardy Gilyard returning for his senior season. The sub-par rushing attack should improve with speedy sophomore Isaiah Pead (6.5 ypr on just 30 carries last season) getting more touches and the other top backs returning with him. Overall, Cincinnati's offense should improve significantly from a unit that had to use 4 quarterbacks last season due to injury.
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The Cincinnati defense was very good in 2008, rating at 0.8 yards per play better than average while being good against both the run and the pass. That will change this season, as just 1 starter returns from that veteran crew. The Bearcats still have decent talent along the defense, but they will go from very good (17th in my ratings in 2008) to near the middle of the pack defensively this season.

One advantage that Cincinnati has is their special teams, which I rated as 3rd best in the nation last season. Outstanding kick returner Gilyard is back after averaging 27.6 yards per kick off return (with 2 TD's), but the Bearcats aren't going to lead the nation is net punting again this season without star punter Kevin Huber. Cincy will still have an edge in special teams on most teams and they'll be a solid team unless the rebuilt defense is considerably worse than expected.

Rutgers shrugged off a sluggish start on offense last season (13.2 points per game in their first 6 games against FBS foes) and scored 43.3 points per game over their last 6 contests with 4 year starting quarterback Mike Teel airing it out to big play receivers Kenny Britt, Tim Brown, and Tiquan Underwood. Overall, the Knights finished the season with an average of 28.3 points and 6.4 yards per play against FBS competition, which are good numbers, but the offense won't be as good this season without Teel, Britt, and Underwood. senior Dom Natale and freshman Tom Savage are battling it out for the starting quarterback job and neither looked good in scrimmage last month against the Rutgers' number 1 defense. The Scarlet Knights do return all 5 starters from an offensive line that only allowed sacks on 4.4% of the team's pass plays (6% is average), so the new quarterback should have plenty of time to find a receiver and Tim Brown is a veteran receiver with great speed and an 18.8 yards per catch average over his career. The other receiver spots may be manned by red-shirt freshman and a compliment to Brown must emerge for Rutgers to have a good pass attack. My best guess is that Rutgers will be 0.4 yppp better than average throwing the ball, which is where the Knights graded before Teel became the quarterback. The rushing attack has been solid in recent years and the experienced line and good set of backs should produce better than average rushing numbers. Overall, I'll call for Rutgers to be 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively this season, but the poor performance of the offense in scrimmages could be a sign of trouble and I may be overestimating the new quarterbacks.
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Rutgers is known for having good defenses under coach Greg Schiano, but they've really only been really good for one season (1.2 yppl better than average in 2006). Rutgers was 0.3 yppl better than average in 2005, 0.4 ypl better than average in 2007 and they were actually 0.2 yppl worse than average last season despite allowing just 20.4 points per game. The Scarlet Knights gave up 5.7 yppl for the season (against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense), but that unit improved in the 2nd half of the season (just as the offense did) and I rate the Rutgers' stop unit at 0.2 yppl better than average heading into this season.

Rutgers looks like they could be a solid team if their new quarterback is decent, but they're not that much better than an average team on either side of the ball and I'll know a lot more about this team after this game with Cincinnati.

My ratings suggest that these teams are about even from the line of scrimmage, but Cincinnati has a huge edge in special teams and that could be the difference in this game. Too much is being made of Cincinnati having just 1 returning starter on defense, as that unit has plenty of talent and performed very well in scrimmages this summer. I rate the Bearcats' defense as average, which is a huge 0.8 yppl drop from last year's great defense, and I actually think they'll be better than average this season. Overall, my ratings favor Cincinnati by 1/2 a point based on their offensive advantage and special teams. I certainly don't see how Rutgers can be favored by 6 points in this game but I'll resist making the Bearcats a Best Bet because of all the variance involved with forecasting Cincy's new defense and Rutgers' new quarterbacks. I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I'd make the Bearcats a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

Strong Opinion
UNDER (51 1/2) - UCLA (-19.5) 31 San Diego St. 13
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San Diego State was a horrible mess defensively last season, as multiple injuries to the defensive line crippled the defense and allowed teams to run at will against them. The Aztecs also had issues on the offensive line, which had trouble run blocking. Bad line play greatly attributed to San Diego State being out-scored by an average of 19 points per game but they did win a best bet for me in their final game by taking down UNLV 42-21 as a double-digit home underdog. That win was not enough to save Chuck Long's job and Brady Hoke, who coached up Ball State's program in recent years, is the new head coach. I'm not completely sold on Hoke as a head coach (it certainly helped having Nate Davis at quarterback), but Hoke was wise enough to pick good assistant coaches in OC Al Borges and DC Rocky Long, whose defenses at New Mexico always out-played their talent.

Long is bringing in his 3-3-5 defense, an alignment that tends to make up for a lack of physical talent, which should suit the Aztecs. Long always had solid defenses despite mediocre talent at New Mexico (aside from Brian Urlacher), and his defensive units had an average rating of 0.5 yards per play better than average (on a national scale) the last 8 seasons. San Diego State isn't going to be that good just yet, but they are in much better shape this season with lots of players that have starting experience. Based on experience and talent ratings San Diego State would be about 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively this season, but Long's defenses at New Mexico were on average 0.3 yppl better than the projected defense based on those parameters. I have faith in Long but I'll base my defensive rating on experience and talent and call for the Aztecs to be 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively. However, that unit could be closer to average if Long does his usual magic.
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San Diego State's offense should be better as well, as Hoke has a pretty good young quarterback in sophomore Ryan Lindley, who was only 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp) and threw just 9 interceptions on 427 pass attempts as a freshman. Most of Lindley's receivers are back, but I'll call for about the same sort of numbers since the offense is learning a new system - although Lindley certainly could be average or better this year. The rushing attack was horrible last season (just 3.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) and I don't see too much improvement this season as all the top backs average around 4.0 ypr in their careers. I'll call for San Diego State's offense to be just slightly better than it was last year when Lindley played (he missed almost all of 2 games and the backup quarterback stats were horrible). The Aztecs look to be about 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively but could be better than that if Lindley can pick up the new system quickly.

San Diego State looks like one of the most improved teams in the nation, as I rate them at just 7 1/2 points worse than an average team after being 18.5 points worse than average last year.

UCLA was decimated by injuries last season, with 44 starts lost due to injury by starters (among the most in the nation), and the Bruins are in much better shape with 15 returning starters (compared to 6 last season) and young talent that is ready to contribute. Red shirt freshman QB Kevin Prince takes over the reigns of an offense that was among the worst in the nation last season, averaging just 4.2 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). Prince will be better than last year's quarterback Kevin Craft (now battling for the 2nd string job) and the rushing attack will also should be much better with a more experienced offensive line and without Kahlil Bell, who was banged up last season and averaged a pathetic 2.8 ypr. The Bruins have 7 returning starters on offense surrounding Prince (it will be 8 when RG Ekbatani returns in October) and there is a chance that they could be better than average offensively, but Prince was just 9 for 19 passing for a paltry 77 yards in the scrimmage last week. I'll rate UCLA's attack at 0.4 yppl worse than average heading into this season.
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The Bruins were solid defensively last season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team), with a mediocre run defense and a very good pass defense (1.0 yppp better than average). That pass defense should be even better with 1st Team All-Pac 10 CB Alterraun Verner back after leading the nation with 20 passes defended in 2008. Overall, the defense is more experienced and more talented and the run defense should be better than average this season while the pass defense could be among the nation's best if the pass rush improves (just 21 sacks last season).

The Bruins' defense dominated the offense in August scrimmages and new quarterback Prince completed just 17 of 31 passes for 146 yards with 2 interceptions in the most recent 2 scrimmages. That is not a good sign considering those stats were compiled mostly against UCLA's 2nd string defense. I'll stick with my initial projections for UCLA's offense but the state of the offense in August scrimmages certainly suggests that things may not have improved at all for the Bruins' offense.

My ratings favor UCLA by just 18 1/2 points so there is not much value on the side. The better play looks to be the Under (51 1/2 points). UCLA is strong defensively and weak offensively while San Diego State appears to be at least as good defensively as they are offensively given their expected improvements under new DC Long. My ratings project just 44 total points in this game and it could be even lower given how much UCLA's defense has dominated their offense in scrimmages - which either means that the Bruins' offense is worse than expected or their defense is even better than expected. Either way, that favors an even lower scoring game. I'll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 51 points or higher.