JR O'Donnell
3* SF 49ers -3
We note that "the better the team is the less they care about winning in the preseason" and the Colts have not won a preseason opener since 2002. The Back ups will play a huge role in this game as we note that role player Colts Qb Jim Sorgi is gone. The Curtis Painter era starts and he is awful. The Niners D will get after him all game , Let's play on the coach here that wants to win in Singletary. The sharps moved this NFL LINE to 3 as the Coaches from the Niners want this baby bad!
Fantasy Sports Gametime
50* Play Washington (-185) over Arizona
Arizona has lost 21 of the last 25 games as an underdog of +175 to +250 and they have also lost 9 of the last 10 road games when the total posted is 7.5 runs or less. Arizona has lost 44 of the last 69 games when playing on a Sunday and they have also lost 23 of the last 32 day games.
50* Play New York Yankees (-215) over Kansas City
Kansas City has lost 6 of the last 7 games and they have also lost 42 of the last 60 games when batting .240 or worse over the last 10 games. Kansas City pitcher, Bryan Bullington has lost 6 consecutive games and he has an ERA of 4.85 in all games this season.
50* Play San Francisco (-175) over San Diego
San Francisco pitcher, Tim Lincecum has won 10 of the last 12 games as a favorite of -125 to -175 and he has also won 4 of the last 5 games when playing on a Sunday. Tim Lincecum has an ERA of 3.41 in all starts this season and he has an ERA of 1.67 vs. San Diego over his career.
KIKI SPORTS
3 Units Seattle -145
1 Unit San Fran -3
1 Unit Houston -160
Chad Greene
Minnesota Twins -145
Craig Masters
Washington Nationals -1.5
Lenny Del Genio
Seattle / Cleveland Under 7.5
The M’s blasted the Indians yesterday 9-3. They pounded out 13 hits and were the beneficiaries of two Cleveland errors. Prior to this outburst the M’s had scored only 2.9 runs over their last seven games. In day games this season the M’s are hitting only .231, and we look for them to head back to the norm this afternoon. The Indians have an awful lineup full of minor leaguers and they’ll be overmatched this afternoon when they face Hernandez. The M’s righty gets no support and as a result has an awful 11-14 team start record despite a 2.81 ERA. On the season in his 25 team starts he’s posted a 9-15-1 under mark. Hernandez has pitched here in Cleveland three times over the previous two years and all three have gone under the total. Masterson gets the start for Cleveland and hasn’t pitched very well this season with a 5.47 ERA, but in his two career outings against Seattle he’s only allowed three earned runs in 12 1/3 innings of work. Seattle is a $140 favorite in this game which is good situation for Hernandez going under posting a 17-6 under record when favored by a $150 or less. Over the last two seasons the Indians have been good plays under at home in day games with a 28-13 under mark. It all adds up to a low scoring game today in Cleveland.
Scott Rickenbach
10* Los Angeles / Toronto Over
The Angels offense exploded for 7 runs in yesterday’s game and they gave the Blue Jays a little “taste of their own medicine” as the long ball led the way for Los Angeles against a Toronto team that leads the majors in homers. The sticks should stay hot today and the ball should carry even better in an afternoon setting where the temperatures will be in the 80 degree range and the winds will likely be blowing out toward center or right-center at a clip of 10 miles per hour. A little extra carry on the ball certainly never hurts an over player! The Angels have recorded four unders in their last ten games. The Blue Jays have recorded just 6 unders in their last 17 games. The last time Toronto was held to three runs or less in back to back games, they exploded for a 17-11 win in their very next game. We’re certainly not projecting 28 runs in today’s game but the point is that this powerful Blue Jays offense can only be held in check for so long.
The Blue Jays potent sticks will be doing battle against Dan Haren of the Angels in this afternoon’s match-up. Haren is 5-0 in his last six starts against the Jays but note the 5.85 ERA he’s compiled against Toronto in those games. Also, Haren is off of a very solid outing against Kansas City in his most recent start. However, prior to handcuffing the Royals, Haren had given up 62 hits in his last 52.2 innings of work. Also, he’s recorded just one win in his five day starts this season while compiling a 5.58 ERA and getting hammered at a .303 clip in those outings. In day games last season, Haren was hit 40 points higher than in night games. Look for the other starting pitcher in this match-up to struggle as well.
Ricky Romero gets the start for the Blue Jays and the California native struggled in his prior start in Anaheim. He may be putting too much pressure on himself pitching in front of family and friends in his home state. Not helping in terms of “distractions” for this start is that Romero just signed a huge contract extension yesterday. While that could help him psychologically in the long run, it also can be a detriment in the short-term as that’s had a lot of his focus in recent days. The Blue Jays southpaw is 1-2 in his career against the Angels and they’ve hammered him at a .316 clip. He allowed five earned runs to the Red Sox in his most recent start and that was the 3rd time in his last 7 starts that Romero has allowed at least five earned runs. His ERA this season is nearly two full runs higher on the road compared to at home. Also, his ERA after the all-star break compared to before is more than 1.5 runs higher in his career. Romero simply seems to wear down as a season goes on and his only start at Angel Stadium was an absolute disaster and we would not be surprised to see a repeat here.
The Blue Jays are a solid 18-12 to the over as a road dog of up to +150 this season. The Angels are 11-5 to the over in their Sunday games this season. The Jays are 8-4-1 to the over in Romero’s road starts this season. Haren’s teams have gone 16-8-1 to the over this season when he takes to the mound. In five starts against AL East opponents, Haren’s teams have recorded one push and gone a PERFECT 4-0 to the OVER against the AL East. His day game starts are a near-perfect 4-1 to the over this season. We like the low total, the favorable weather, and the power of each of these lineups in these settings as there is reason to believe each starting hurler will struggle in this game. As for the bullpens, the Blue Jays ERA ranks in the middle of the pack in the majors while the Angels bullpen ERA ranks among the worst in the majors! Play OVER the total in the Los Angeles Angels game as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ New York
We are all guilty at times of short-term memory. In handicapping, being cognizant of that – and taking advantage of the effects it has on most people – can pay off big. That’s precisely the situation we feel we have here. Mike Pelfrey of the Mets is coming off of a very strong outing. Kyle Kendrick of the Phillies is coming off of a very rough outing. This is absolutely impacting perception with regards to this match-up and, as we’ve written about many times in the past, it is important to never over-react to just one start. That said, the key here is that, before his last start, Pelfrey was 0-4 with a 9.24 ERA over his last six starts. As for Kendrick, before his last start, he had gone 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his three prior starts. The Mets have scored just 27 runs in 12 games this month and New York’s weak lineup is much less likely to get going here than the Phillies are.
Note that Philadelphia is 9-3 this month and they’ve scored at least 6 runs in 7 of those 12 games. By comparison, the Mets haven’t even scored 6 runs in a game this entire month! The Phillies are averaging 5.2 runs per game in August while the Mets are averaging 2.3 runs per game. The Phils will face Pelfrey in this one and he’s 5-3 against the Phillies in his career but note his 4.83 ERA and .287 BAA versus Philadelphia. His overall 3.95 ERA this season is somewhat deceiving as Pelfrey has been rocked at a .293 clip on the year. The Phillies are 49-35 against right-handed starters this season. The Mets, when facing a team with a winning record, are 11-18 since the midway point of this season. The Mets won Pelfrey’s last start but, prior to that, they lost EACH of his last SIX starts! As for the Phillies, they lost Kendrick’s last start but, prior to that, the Phils were 12-4 in his last 16 starts. That said, we see plenty of line value here with the Phillies as a small road dog at New York tonight. The better sticks, the starting pitcher who is in better form, and the more confident team at this point in the season! Play Philadelphia on the money line as an *8* Regular Play selection.
8* Chicago / Detroit Over
The wind will be out of the northwest and blowing at a good clip for this one and that means a nice “out wind” at US Cellular Field on a mild mid-August afternoon. After yesterday’s 3-2 pitchers duel we look for nothing of the sort today. Armando Galarraga gets the start for the Tigers and his five road starts this season have seen him get hammered at a .323 clip and compile an ugly 6.66 ERA. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in 6 of his last 9 starts. Only once in his last nine starts has he allowed less than three earned runs. Particularly concerning about his last two starts is that Galarraga has walked nine batters while striking out just two. To put it bluntly, the Tigers right-hander is currently struggling with his command and then, when he does find the plate, he’s getting rocked by opposing sticks!
Facing the White Sox certainly hasn’t helped matters for Galarraga in his career as, in seven games (five starts) he’s recorded just one win while compiling a 4.76 ERA. Another starting pitcher should struggle today and that’s Freddy Garcia of the ChiSox. He’s had success in his career against the Tigers but Garcia comes into this outing after getting rocked by the Twins in his most recent start. In fact, the right-hander has a 4.90 ERA on the season and he’s been hammered at a .292 clip. In other words, his 10-5 record on the year is not exactly commensurate with how he’s been pitching! Also, his ugly outing against the Twins was the 2nd time in his last 4 starts that Garcia has lasted 2.1 innings or less! As a road dog of +100 to +125 this season, the Tigers are 10-5 to the over. The White Sox are 11-7 to the over on Sundays. The Tigers are 6-3 to the over in Galarraga’s last nine starts. His five road starts this season have resulted in one push and a PERFECT 4-0 record to the over! Also, the White Sox are on a PERFECT 5-0 run to the over when Garcia takes the mound! Play OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Dwayne Bryant
Whites Sox -139
Chicago is 35-23 at home, including 22-5 in their last 27 at U.S. Cellular Field. Detroit is just 18-36 on the road, and 18-35 in the last 53 meetings in Chicago. The White Sox are 14-2 in Garcia's last 16 starts vs. the Tigers. Miguel Cabrera (.455 BA, 2 HR in 11 AB) is the only Detroit batter to have any success vs. Garcia over the last 5 years. Galarraga owns a 6.66 ERA & 1.73 WHIP in his 5 road starts this season. Garcia has had 8 Quality Starts out of 10 home starts this season. Detroit averages just 3.4 runs per game on the road against righties this season. Chicago averages 5.1 runs per game at home against righties this season. In their last 5 games, Detroit's bullpen owns a 5.79 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and .296 BAA. In their last 5 games, Chicago's bullpen owns a 4.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .211 BAA. After blowing last night's game in the 9th inning, Chicago wins the rubber match today.
Antony Dinero
Broncos at Bengals
Pick: Bengals -3.5
Bottom line, we're going against the Tim Tebow backdoor cover here. The Bengals will get Carson Palmer a good amount of work and you can count on improvement from a Cincy team that is playing its second preseason game. Denver has massive issues on the offensive line, starting rookies, and is looking to overcome the absence of Elvis Dumervil, not to mention taking a look at the three quarterbacks on the roster. For stability's sake, look for the Bengals to persevere. Lay the 3.5.
David Malinsky
4* Braves / Dodgers Under
Through the first two games of this series these two teams are tied at 2-2 in runs, and there is nothing fluky about it – there have only been three extra base hits through the entire set, none of them from the punchless Dodgers. We do not believe that form changes here in a Vicente Padilla/Jair Jurrjens hookup, and with no major fatigue ratings to be found from either bullpen, it is another pitcher’s duel.
Padilla has worked to a 5-2/2.22 since coming off of the DL, with a sparkling count of 54 K’s vs. only 41 hits allowed, and while the box score shows signs of struggling at Philadelphia in his last outing, we have to take that with a grain of salt – he was given an early 7-1 lead, and allowed to go into a coast mode. Joe Torre used that lead to get him out after only 83 pitches, which makes him even fresher for this setting (he has only 100 pitches once since the All Star break).
The Jurrjens story is similar to that of Padilla – he is undervalued because of early injury problems, with his stuff since coming off of the DL much better than this overall charts will show. In four starts from this mound since returning to the rotation it has been a 4-0/1.82, and in truth the only subpar statistical outing in his eight outings since the DL stint requires an * - he was charged with five earned runs over 6.2 innings at Cincinnati, but note that he led that one 2-1 into the bottom of the 7th. It was a solid outing, and a struggling Dodger lineup that lacks much experience against him will not turn that form around.
Paul Leiner
50* Bengals -3.5
50* Cubs +115
25* Blue Jays +115
Dave Cokin
Solid Gold - NY Mets
MTi Sports
4* Phillies +104
Power Play Wins
LA Angels -135
Beat Your Bookie
10* Play Houston (-155) over Pittsburgh (POD)
Pittsburgh is 4-28 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season
Pittsburgh is 0-8 vs. Houston on the road this season
Jeff Karstens is 0-5 in road games this season with an ERA of 4.15