Power Play Wins
SD Padres
NELLY
Vikings at 49ers
Pick: Vikings +3
Brett Favre delivered a magical performance against the 49ers last season in the regular season as the Vikings delivered a win in the final seconds. While San Francisco may look to avenge that game this could be a tough match-up following a strong preseason debut with a convincing win over the Colts. QB Alex Smith struggled in the game with a 3-for-9 performance and an interception. While Favre’s return to Minnesota will grab the headlines the 49ers also made a marquee addition with former Eagles RB Brain Westbrook signing this week. With Glen Coffee’s surprise retirement the 49ers needed more depth at RB and Westbrook will compete for time with Anthony Dixon, who had a strong effort last week, behind starter Frank Gore. The 49ers are expecting to give a lot of snaps to second-year QB Nate Davis from Ball State. Davis has mainly been a disappointment since being a 5th round pick and the plan is to give him some more meaningful snaps against higher level players early in the game. David Carr played well last week to entrench himself in the back-up role to Smith so this game could be given almost entirely to Davis. With two rookies on the offensive line the 49ers could struggle the entire game against arguably the best defensive line in football, as even the back-ups wreaked havoc last week against the Rams. The two biggest threats in the passing game will be on the bench as well as Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree are unlikely to play with minor injuries. Favre will obviously play minimally but his return should provide a boost to the team overall and Minnesota is now incredibly deep at QB. Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels both have starting experience and could start for several other teams in the league. Jackson did not play significantly last week as Rosenfels put on a show with 310 yards. Rumors have Minnesota possibly showing off Rosenfels this preseason as trade bait as he is getting paid like a starter and a number of teams could use a more reliable back-up option. Minnesota will face a 3-4 defense for the first time this summer which can always be an adjustment but the offensive edge should still side with the Vikings. San Francisco’s defense picked up four interceptions last week and the field position edge was evident throughout the game and was a big factor in the blowout margin. Minnesota has taken the preseason seriously in recent years and on the road this will still be an opportunity for the Vikings to pick up a win and build positive momentum.
Coach K
3* Vikings +3
Adam Nichols
4* TB Rays
Jeff Benton
25 DIME REDS / DODGERS UNDER
10 DIME OAKLAND A’S
Reds / Dodgers Under
First of all, don’t be fooled by the Dodgers’ eight-run outburst last night – it was very much a fluke. Prior to last night, L.A. had tallied three runs or fewer in 22 of its previous last 29 games, incauding seven of the previous eight. Over their last 30 games, the Dodgers have scored one run or been shutout 10 times.
Today, that putrid offense runs up against Bronson Arroyo, who has been consisetently solid for Cincinnati this season, going 13-7 with a 3.87 ERA overall, 8-3 with a 3.44 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA in his last three outings. The veteran right-hander allowed two earned runs or fewer while pitching at least six innings in six of his last nine contests, and Arroyo’s last two outings against the Dodgers were gems (combined three runs and 11 hits in 14 1/3 innings).
Also, Arroyo has been an “under” machine for the Reds, as the under is 31-15-5 in his last 51 starts overall, 4-0 in his last four road starts, 7-1 in his last eight against the N.L. West and 11-2-2 in his last 15 when pitching the third game of a series. Additionally, the under is 5-1-1 in Arroyo’s last six starts against the Dodgers.
L.A. counters Arroyo with their best pitcher, Clayton Kershaw (11-7, 3.03 ERA), who is coming off a 6-0 victory over the Rockies (seven shutout innings). He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 18 of his 25 starts this season, including five of his last six. More imporrantly, Kershaw has completely baffled the Reds twice in his career, giving up a total of three runs, 11 hits and three walks with 18 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings – and those two games were in Cincinnati, which is very much a hitter’s park. Today, Kershaw gets the Reds at home, where he has a 3.07 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this year. And the fact it’s a day game is also huge, as the 22-year-old southpaw is 5-1 with a 1.79 ERA in nine starts under the sun, seven of which have gone under the total.
Finally, L.A. had stayed low in each of the first four games of its current homestand prior to Saturday, and it is also on “under” streaks of 18-8-2 against right-handed starters overall and 8-2 in its last nine home games versus righty starters. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is on “under” stretches of 30-13-8 on Sunday and 38-16-5 in the third game of a series.
This has 3-2 final written all over it!
Oakland A’s
You give me the Oakland A’s as a home underdog in a day game, and I’m all over it. Why do I bring up “day game”? Because no team in baseball has been better when playing under God’s flashlight than the A’s. They’re an MLB-best 29-12 in day games, which equates to a .707 winning percentage. At night, Oakland is just 32-49.
Dallas Braden has done his part in daytime action, too, going 5-1 with a 2.79 ERA in seven starts, including his perfect game against these Rays back on May 9 (a 4-0 victory). Braden struggled for several weeks after that perfecto, but the lefty has been on his game lately. He’s given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, and Oakland is 5-1 in his last six outings. That includes a 5-1 win in Seattle on Aug. 11 and a 6-2 home win over Toronto on Tuesday, and in those two contests Braden surrendered a combined two earned runs, seven hits and four walks in 16 innings.
One more point about Braden: Not only was he perfect against Tampa Bay in May, but in five of his last six starts against the Rays he’s given up just seven runs in 32 2/3 innings (1.93 ERA).
Meanwhile, Rays starter Matt Garza is just 1-2 in his last three starts despite pitching very well (1.31 ERA); he’s got a 4.05 ERA in 12 starts on the road (Tampa is 5-7); and he’s 1-2 in three career starts against Oakland (all last season), allowing nine runs in 18 2/3 innings (4.34 ERA).
Throw in the fact the A’s have won four of the past five meetings with the Rays (all at home) – going back several years Tampa has lost 38 of 52 at the Coliseum – and this one is a no-brainer, especially at this price.
Bob Balfe
Oakland Athletics +117
Dallas Braden has been on a good roll this year and the A's usually pitch very well at home. The A's took the first two in this series and, if not for a big 8th inning for Tampa, would be going for the sweep today. Look for Oakland to finish the series on a positive note. Take the A's.
49ers/Vikings Under 34.5
The 49ers looked sloppy to start the preseason last week. Alex Smith threw a INT early on and the offensive line allowed a few too many sacks. This team is not very deep at running the ball either. The Vikings will start Brett Favre tonight, but expect to only see him for a few minutes. The 49ers have a great rush defense which will be very important because this Viking team has 5 quality backs. Both teams have good, solid defenses and are good against the run. Look for a low-scoring game. Take the Under.
Mike Neri Sports
1 Unit NY Mets -155
1 Unit LA Dodgers -145
1 Unit Boston -145
King Creole
3* REDS / DODGERS OVER
Major League Baseball's Top 'OVER' Umpire will be working behind the dish in Dodger Stadium on Sunday afternoon. ANGLE CAMPOS comes in with a 16-6 O/U record on the year... and he's been even HOTTER as of late. He's gone 7-1 O/U in his last 7 games... and a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in his last 4, with an average of 10.5 combined runs per game. He's also gone 10-3 O/U this year in All National League games. With the winds blowing OUT to Center Field today... and a LOW Over / Under line of 7 runs.... we'll take a BITE with the 'OVER'!
THIS IS HIS FREE PLAY
Rocketman
St Louis -140
VEGAS SPORTS MASTERS CONSENSUS
49ERS (-2.5) VIKINGS ( 4 OF 6 CAPPERS )
SPORTS BANK
300% Minnesota Vikings
PHIL MAXWELL
MINNESOTA -117
Ben Burns
Main Event - San Francisco 49ers
KELSO
10 Units Minnesota Vikings +2.5
15 Units Reds/Dodgers Under 7
10 Units Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
10 Units NY Mets
10 Units SD Padres
5 Unit Parlay
The Duke's Sports
San Diego (-130) for 2 Units
The Padres haven't lost a series in a while and shouldn't here: after all, they're 6-0 after losing their first 2 games of a series. We like the pitching matchup. Jon Garland has been red hot while his counterpart Manny Parra has been struggling. Garland controls a 0.90 ERA over his last 3 starts and hasn't allowed a run over his last 17 innings pitched. He is 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA in 3 starts vs Milwaukee. He also sports a strong 2.94 ERA during daytime action. On the other hand, Parra sports a bloated 5.06 ERA over his last 3 starts, controls a lofty 5.91 ERA in two starts vs SD, and has not fared well in daytime action (6.99 ERA). The Padres are a sweet 14-3 as a road favorite in this price range, 4-0 with Garland on Sunday, and 5-1 with him in game 3 of a series. SD the call.