Coach K
3* Steelers/Broncos Under 37.5
Freddy Wills
4* Brewers RL +115 (4-Dime POD)
Tommy Gun
3* Cards RL -120
2* NYY/CHW Under 9.5
SPORTS BANK
300% Steelers/Broncos Under
Wayne Root
No Limit - Padres
SEABASS
300* SF -1.5
100* CHW
100* TB/BOS Over
TONY WRIGHT
Denver
BIG AL
MLB TV TOTAL OF THE MONTH
Red Sox ? Rays Over
By most accounts, the first season for righthander John Lackey in a Red Sox uniform has been a disappointment. The big veteran starter has a very solid 12-7 record after his first 26 starts, but his 4.51 ERA and 1.49 WHIP are certainly not what he or the Red Sox had hoped for. The one thing that's been there pretty consistently for Lackey all season is run support. Lackey is averaging 5.2 runs of support per start, which is the highest such number for him since his first season in the Majors nine years ago. Even lately, with Boston suffering so many injuries to their lineup (Pedroia, Youkilis, Cameron, Varitek, Ellsbury), Lackey continues to get runs when he goes to the mound. In his last seven starts, going back to July 22, the Sox have scored a total of 37 runs, and in only one of those games have they failed to score at least five runs. Rays righthander James Shields has had a similar season to Lackey's, which is to say that the veteran righthander also has 12 victories and a winning record (12-11) but has definitely not performed up to the expectations that he or the team have wanted. At 4.8 runs per game started, Shields' run support has not been quite as good as Lackey's but it's been decent enough to get him into a position to win 15 games this season for the first time in his career. Heading into Sunday's game, five of the last eight meetings have gone a total of 10 or more runs. Take the 'over.'
Power Play Wins
Minnesota Twins -159
ROCKETMAN
3* Boston +140
These two teams fighting it out along with the NY Yankees in the AL East division race. Boston needs this one to make up some ground on the Devil Rays. Boston has won 5 of their last 7 games overall. John Lackey is 12-7 overall this year and 2-0 with a 3.91 ERA his last 3 starts. Lackey is 11-3 with a 3.54 ERA overall vs Tampa Bay since 1997. James Shields is 4-11 with a 5.02 ERA overall vs Boston since 1997. We'll play Boston for 3 units tonight!
NICK "BOOKIEKILLER" PARSONS
10* Rays / Red Sox Over 8.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the “over”:
John Lackey gets the call for the visitors; although Lackey is coming off a victory, he’s been a huge disappointment this year for the Red Sox; he’s 12-7 on the year with a 4.51 ERA; previous to his last victory, Lackey entered with a 6.49 ERA over his previous four starts.
Important to point out that Boston has in fact seen the total go “over” the number in 29 of 50 games vs. division opponents; also in 28 of 51 contests following a loss.
In the other dugout: James Shields heads to the hill for the home side; Shields has been pitching decently of late but has a 6-3 record with a 4.75 ERA; not the best ERA, but his team has given him plenty of run support. He’s just 1-2 with a 5.03 ERA in three starts vs. Boston this season.
Tampa Bay has seen the total go “over” the number in 35 of 59 when playing against a team with a winning record.
Bottom line: The Rays look to win the deciding game of their home series against the Red Sox tonight, which would give them a 6 1/2-game lead for a playoff spot.
A lot on the line for both sides and I expect the starters to get chased early;
Marc Lawrence
Boston Red Sox +130
The 3rd and final game in this pivotal A. L. East Division battle takes place at Tropicana Field in Tampa this evening where the Red Sox send John Lackey to the hill in hopes of cutting the deficit in the playoff chase. Lackey enters tonight's game in great KW form with three walks and 19 strikeouts in his last three starts knowing he sports a 12-3 career team start mark with a 3.54 ERA against the Rays. On the flip side, James Shields take the mound knowing he is 4-13 in his 17 career team starts against Boston with a 5.01 ERA. Back the better pitcher with the better numbers here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Boston.
Tony George
Pittsburgh -2
Cannot ignore the RB issue for Denver. They have all top 3 RBS out. You also cannot put a ton of stock in preseason stats, HOWEVER the Broncos have not played any defense this preseason, allowing 29 ppg and only scoring 22. The Steelers are back to basics, running the ball and playing defense. They have allowed just 12 ppg this preseason. We judge this on the better team, better running game, deeper at QB and better defense. All Pitt! Starters play 3 quarters for both teams, Pitt is deeper at skill positions including QB. Denver has a young OL that is getting a ton of snaps against a veteran DL, not good news for Denver, even at home. Play 1 Unit on Pittsburgh.
RICH GREEN
3* Steelers/Broncos Under 37
Scott Spreitzer
Denver +2.5