Matt Fargo
10* GOY Chargers
Dr.Bob
Washington +2
Chicago +3
Opinions
New Orleans -9
Houston +3
SIXTH SENSE
BEST BETS
YTD 44-36-1 +12.30% (43-39-1 6.00% with Sports Monitor)
3% OAKLAND +4
3% PITTSBURGH -8.5
3% CHICAGO +3
3% NEW ORLEANS -9
3% PHILADELPHIA/DALLAS OVER 51
3% HOUSTON +3
JACKSONVILLE -4 Oakland 42.5
Oakland ran roughshod over SD last week, out gaining the Chargers 251-21 and 4.8ypr to 2.6ypr. They also out passed them 6.9yps to 6.2yps. Overall, Oakland was out gained 5.6yppl to 5.3yppl because SD threw the ball 26 more times while Oakland ran the ball a whopping 44 more times than SD. Jacksonville went to Tennessee and made easy work of the Titans in their 17-6 victory. They out rushed Tennessee 258-57 and 4.9ypr to 4.1ypr. They also out passed them 6.0yps to 4.9yps. Overall, Jacksonville out gained Tennessee, 5.2yppl to 4.7yppl.
Oakland averages 4.7ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.2yps against 6.4yps and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. Jacksonville averages 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.7yps against 6.6yps and 6.2yppl against 5.6yppl.
Oakland qualifies in a momentum situation, which is 73-31-2. Numbers favor Oakland by two points and predict about 45 points. Oakland is getting healthy and may have all of their players back for the first time in a long time. They have played well on the road this year against teams with below average defenses, which is what Jacksonville has, losing by one at Arizona and winning 59-14 at Denver. Jacksonville is playing well but they are not blowing teams out at home, with a couple of seven point wins this year, but that’s their largest victory at home this year. Oakland’s two bad defeats on the road have come against much better than average defenses. The situation in their favor is extremely strong and there is value on their side along with the team getting healthier. Looks like wind could play a role in this game as well. OAKLAND 24 JACKSONVILLE 20
PITTSBURGH -8.5 Cincinnati 39.5
Cincinnati gave up a late score in their 34-30 loss at home to New Orleans. But, they were badly out gained in that game, getting out rushed 6.6ypr to 3.7ypr, out passed 9.4yps to 6.0yps and out gained overall, 8.2yppl to 5.0yppl. Pittsburgh got a huge turnover late in the game to put themselves in position to defeat Baltimore, 13-10. The Steelers only averaged 2.3ypr but held Baltimore to 2.2ypr. They were out passed 6.1yps to 5.7yps and out gained overall, 4.7yppl to 4.4yppl.
Cincinnati averages 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.5yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. Pittsburgh averages 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 2.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.8ps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl.
Pittsburgh qualifies in a home scheduling situation, which is 51-16-1 and qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 186-100-13. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 14 points and predict about 44 points. Weather could be a big factor on Sunday so the total may end up lower scoring. Since Roethlisberger came back Pittsburgh has scored at least 26 points in each home game. They haven’t allowed more than 17 points at home to a below average offense. Cincinnati has allowed at least 22 points in nine straight games this year. Pittsburgh should get their share of points at home against a below average defense, while limiting a below average offense on the road. A good mix of technical and fundamental situations, along with value in their favor. PITTSBURGH 28 CINCINNATI 13
New England -3 CHICAGO 37.5
NE destroyed the Jets on Monday night 45-3. They were out rushed 4.9ypr to 3.9ypr but out passed the Jets 9.5yps to 4.4yps. Overall, they out gained the Jets 7.0yppl to 4.6yppl as they won the turnover battle 3-0. Chicago escaped Detroit with a 24-20 victory. The Bears were out rushed 5.0ypr to 4.1ypr but out passed Detroit 6.6yps to 6.5yps. Overall, Detroit out gained Chicago 5.7yppl to 5.4yppl.
New England averages 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.8yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. Chicago averages 3.8pr against 4.3ypr, 6.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 6.4yppl.
The Bears qualify in the same home dog momentum situation they qualified in against Philadelphia a few weeks ago. That situation is 4-0 on the year and is now 46-15-1. NE qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 81-42-7 and plays against them here. Chicago also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-71-5. Numbers favor NE by just one point and predict about 46 points. Snow, rain and a heavy does of wind could be a big factor in this game. That will hurt the offensive side of the game but I think the Bears are better suited for more of a run first attack. No question NE is on a roll and playing terrific but they aren’t blowing teams away on the road. Against the better teams they have faced this year, they lost by 14 at the Jets and won by three at SD. They did blow out Pittsburgh but they match up well with the Steelers. They certainly are playing better now than their games at NY and SD but so are the Bears. Bears have the better defense and an offense that can move the ball against a below average defense, especially at home. Brandon Spikes is suspended for the Patriots and that will hurt them on defense as well. Situations and value lie with Chicago. CHICAGO 24 NEW ENGLAND 16
BUFFALO -1 Cleveland 39
The Browns forced three Miami turnovers in their 13-10 win over Miami last week. They struggled on the ground, averaging just 2.4ypr to Miami’s 3.6ypr but did out pass Miami 5.6yps to 5.1yps. Overall, both teams averaged 4.3yppl. Buffalo played a banged up Vikings team but was no match as they were beaten 38-14. The Bills forced four Minnesota turnovers but turned the ball over five times themselves. They were out rushed again 5.3ypr to 3.7ypr, out passed 7.4yps to 6.0yps and out gained overall, 6.0yppl to 4.9yppl.
Cleveland averages 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Buffalo averages 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.4yps against 6.3yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl.
Situations go both ways in this game as Buffalo qualifies in a negative situation based on their poor defensive effort last week, which is 94-48-4 and plays against them here. But, Buffalo also qualifies in a strong contrary situation, which is 69-21-4. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 45 points. Again, weather could be a huge factor in this game as well. If weather becomes a major problem in this game, I like Cleveland’s ability to rush the ball against a poor Buffalo rush defense. Cleveland has won four of their last six games and the two losses were the last minute OT loss at home to the Jets and the horrific loss at Jacksonville in the last minute as well. Cleveland posses the better ability to rush the ball and is playing better right now. If it weren’t for the strong situation on Buffalo, I would consider Cleveland. CLEVELAND 24 BUFFALO 20
NY Giants -3 MINNESOTA 43
The Giants jumped out to a huge lead over Washington and never looked back. They out rushed the Redskins, 5.5ypr to 4.6ypr, out passed them 6.4yps to 5.5yps and out gained them overall, 5.9yppl to 5.3yppl. NY force six Washington turnovers. The final numbers are skewed somewhat because Washington threw the ball 23 more times while the Giants ran the ball 20 more times. Minnesota overcame four turnovers by forcing five themselves on their way to an easy 38-14 win over Buffalo. The Vikings out rushed Buffalo 210-84 and 5.3ypr to 3.7ypr. They out passed them 7.4yps to 6.0yps and out gained them overall, 6.0yppl to 4.9yppl.
New York averages 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.0yps against 6.5yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Minnesota averages 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.3yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.2yps against 6.3yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl.
Minnesota qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 160-91-11. Numbers favor the Giants by 1.5 points and predict about 38 points. Minnesota is playing better since the coaching change but their two wins have come against Washington and Buffalo. The Giants are on a different level. A level Minnesota has struggled against this year. Favre will very likely miss this game. Tavaris Jackson would start and he threw three interceptions against Buffalo last week. Vikings will probably also miss Percy Harvin and have injuries on defense as well. The Giants aren’t completely healthy but they may get their two best wide receivers back this week along with one of their starting offensive lineman. Giants are the better team so I have to lean that way. NY GIANTS 23 MINNESOTA 17
Green Bay -6.5 DETROIT 46.5
The Packers struggled early but pulled away from SF in the second half in their 34-16 win over the 49ers. GB was out rushed 4.4ypr to 4.0ypr but out passed SF 8.1yps to 5.9yps. Overall, GB out gained SF 6.0yppl to 5.3yppl. Detroit fought hard but fell short in their 24-20 loss at home to Chicago. The Lions out rushed Chicago 5.0ypr to 4.1ypr and were slightly out passed 6.6yps to 6.5yps. Overall, they out gained the Bears 5.7yppl to 5.4yppl.
Green Bay averages 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.2yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.6yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. Detroit averages 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.7yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.6yps against 6.4yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor GB by 7.5 points and predict about 46 points. GB has dominated this game over the years. Mike McCarthy has never lost to Detroit, going 9-0 SU. The Lions are now 0-19 SU against the NFC North in their last 19 games. GB lost here in 2005 but that was a year they only won four games so they weren’t very good. Since 2004 (not counting 2005), GB has never won by less than seven points here in Detroit. The scores have been 38-10, 31-24, 37-26, 48-25 and 34-12 last year. They have scored at least 31 points in each of those games. In a perfect environment (dome) GB should thrive against an improving Detroit team but one that still isn’t nearly as good as the Packers. Detroit, at home, against better than average offenses this year has allowed 35 points against Philadelphia and 45 points against New England. They have scored at least 20 points in every home game this year, including games against good defenses like Chicago and the Jets (scored 20 in each of those games). In a perfect environment and against a below average defense like Detroit, you can mark GB down for 30-35 points. The question becomes can Detroit score 23-28 points in this game. They should get to 20 points based on what they have done at home this year. This game has a good chance of going over the total. GB has given up the fewest points in the league this year so that’s enough to keep me off the over as a best bet but I like GB and over as leans. You may want to consider GB over any team totals that are out there as long as they are less than 28. GREEN BAY 31 DETROIT 20
Atlanta -7 CAROLINA 42.5
Atlanta needed some late game miracles to overcome a 10 point deficit in their 28-24 win at TB. They were out rushed 5.2ypr to 3.1ypr but out passed TB 5.7yps to 4.4yps. Overall, they were slightly out gained 4.7yppl to 4.6yppl. A big kick off return for Atlanta kept them in the game after they fell behind by 10 points. Carolina jumped out to a 14-0 lead at Seattle but never scored again as they surrendered 31 straight points in a 31-14 loss. They were out rushed 5.2ypr to 4.4ypr, out passed 6.4yps to 4.1yps and out gained overall, 5.8yppl to 4.2yppl.
Atlanta averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.1yps against 6.1yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. Carolina averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.5yps against 6.0yps and 4.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Atlanta by 6.5 points and predict about 44 points. Carolina hasn’t fared well at home against better than .500 teams this year losing by 13, 17, 31 and 24 points. Can’t see myself on Carolina again this year unless I am getting a lot of points. ATLANTA 27 CAROLINA 13
Tampa Bay -1.5 WASHINGTON 41
TB lost a heartbreaker at home to Atlanta, 28-24, giving up a 10 point fourth quarter lead. They out rushed Atlanta 5.2ypr to 3.1ypr but were out passed 5.7yps to 4.4yps. Overall, they out gained Atlanta 4.7yppl to 4.6yppl. Washington was blown out at the Giants 31-7 as they turned the ball over six times. They were out rushed 5.5ypr to 4.6ypr, out passed 6.4yps to 5.5yps and out gained overall 5.9yppl to 5.3yppl.
Tampa Bay averages 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.1yps against 5.8yps and 5.4yppl against 5.0yppl. Washington averages 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.1yps against 6.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 5.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.6yps against 6.5yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl.
Tampa Bay qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 487-313-21. Numbers favor Washington by 1.5 points and predict about 41 points. Can’t lay points on the road with TB against a Washington team who has been competitive at home in all but one game this year and knowing the value lies with Washington. I will lean their way and towards the over. TAMPA BAY 24 WASHINGTON 20
NEW ORLEANS -8.5 St Louis 47
The Rams went to Arizona and easily handed a bad Arizona team a 19-6 loss. They were out rushed 5.5ypr to 3.3ypr but out passed Arizona 5.5yps to 3.6yps. Both teams averaged 4.3yppl for the game. The overall numbers are down some for the Rams because they ran the ball 17 more times than Arizona. NO escaped with a 34-30 victory at Cincinnati, needing a late score to win the game. But, NO dominated the game from the line of scrimmage. They averaged 6.6ypr to 3.7ypr for Cincinnati, out passed the Bengal’s 9.4yps to 6.0yps and out gained them overall, 8.2yppl to 5.0yppl.
St. Louis averages 3.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.4yps against 6.5yps and 4.7yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 5.9yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl. New Orleans averages 4.1ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 5.8yps and 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl.
NO qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 51-16-1. Numbers favor NO by 10.5 points and predict about 41 points. The Rams have played an easy schedule and this is the first game on the road against a quality team. It’s only their third game against a better than .500 team this year with one point losses at TB and a 17 point loss at home to Atlanta. The loss to Atlanta was closer than the final score but the Rams bring a below average offense and a defense that is slightly below average as well. They may be missing one of their key cornerbacks this week as well. NO is above average on offense and about average on defense but has the capability to make big plays on defense, especially at home. NO is playing well and that includes home wins in their last two home games by 15 over Seattle and by 10 over Pittsburgh. Saints have scored 30 or more points in four straight games, including 34 in three of those games. The Rams have scored more than 20 points only twice this year. NO is getting much healthier and Pierre Thomas is probably back this week as well. Saints bring too much offense for St. Louis to keep pace. NEW ORLEANS 31 ST LOUIS 13
SAN FRANCISCO -5 Seattle 41.5
Seattle fell behind 14-0 at home to Carolina before scoring the games final 31 points in route to a 31-14 victory. They out rushed Carolina 5.2ypr to 4.4ypr, out passed them 6.4yps to 4.1yps and out gained them overall, 5.8yppl to 4.2yppl. SF stayed close to GB for the first half but fell apart in the second half of their 34-16 loss. They out rushed GB 4.4ypr to 4.0ypr but were out passed 8.1yps to 5.9yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.0yppl to 5.3yppl.
Seattle averages 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. San Francisco averages 4.2ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl.
Seattle qualifies in a momentum situation, which is 73-31-2. Meanwhile, SF qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 392-252-18 and 487-313-21. Numbers favor SF by 4.5 points and predict about 40 points. Alex Smith gets the start this week at quarterback for SF. Tough to lay points at home with SF who has won just one game by more than five points at home this year but Seattle has a propensity to get blown out on the road as well. Seattle is hurting at wide receiver. Really not interested in having either team on my side this week. SAN FRANCISCO 24 SEATTLE 20
NY JETS -5.5 Miami 39.5
Miami turned the ball over three times, including a crucial interception in the last few minutes inside their own territory, as they loss at home again, 13-10. They out rushed the Browns 3.6ypr to 2.4ypr but were out passed 5.6yps to 5.1yps. Overall, both teams averaged 4.3yppl for the game. The Jets were blown out at NE, on center stage Monday night, 45-3. They did manage to out rush NE 4.9ypr to 3.9ypr but were out passed 9.5yps to 4.4yps and out gained overall 7.0yppl to 4.6yppl.
Miami averages 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. New York averages 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.9yps against 6.5yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 6.4yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl.
The Jets qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 487-313-21. Numbers favor NY by four points and predict about 35 points. Jets lost here last year to Miami despite dominating the game from the line of scrimmage but kick returns did them in. Two years ago, they lost at home to Miami in the last game of the season, as Favre was hurting. The two years prior to that the Jets won both games by just three points. Miami has played NY tough here over the last few years. Miami’s offense is better than the Jets and their defense isn’t far behind. The Dolphins do have a few injuries this week at receiver and on the offensive line. I’ll lean with the Jets because of the situation but the lack of value and series history in their favor is enough to keep me off the Jets as best bets. NEW YORK 21 MIAMI 13
Denver -4 ARIZONA 42.5
Denver suffered a tough loss at KC 10-6 as they averaged 7.0ypr but allowed KC to rush for 4.7ypr. Their passing game was nonexistent, as they were out passed 5.3yps to 2.7yps. Overall, they were out gained 5.0yppl to 4.5yppl. Arizona was horrible in their lack luster 19-6 home loss to the Rams. They did out rush the Rams 5.5ypr to 3.3ypr but were out passed 5.5yps to 3.6yps. Overall, both teams averaged 4.3yppl. The Rams overall numbers were diluted some because they ran the ball 17 more times than Arizona.
Denver averages 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.6yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.3yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Arizona averages 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.9yps against 6.1yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Denver by two points and predict about 52 points. Arizona starts John Skelton at quarterback for Arizona this week. I’d love to play the over in this game but I certainly can’t trust Arizona with Skelton at quarterback and Denver isn’t lighting it up on the road with five of six games seeing 17 or fewer points scored in each game. No interest in having either team in this game. DENVER 27 ARIZONA 24
SAN DIEGO -7 Kansas City 46.5
KC struggled in their 10-6 victory over Denver. They rushed for 185 yards and 4.7ypr but allowed Denver to rush for 161 yards at 7.0ypr. They won the passing battle 5.3yps to 2.7yps and won the overall numbers, 5.0yppl to 4.5yppl. SD was beaten badly at home and only the fact Oakland ran the ball 44 more times than SD, while SD threw the ball 26 more times made the overall 5.6yppl to 5.2yppl numbers in SD’s favor look good. They allowed Oakland to rush for 251 yards at 4.8ypr, while gaining just 21 yards rushing at 2.6ypr. Oakland out passed SD 6.9yps to 6.2yps.
Kansas City averages 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.4yps against 6.7yps and 5.6yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. San Diego averages 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.8yps against 6.5yps and 6.2yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 3.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.3yps against 6.1yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SD by 7.5 points and predict about 44 points. Matt Cassel will most likely miss this game. Brodie Croyle gets the start in place of Cassel. Croyle’s lifetime average of 4.6yps won’t get it done in this game. This is it for SD if they are to remain alive in the playoff race. KC can certainly run the ball. KC’s has four losses on the road this year and SD has been pretty dominating at home this year, with the exception of last week and a three point loss to NE. Tough game to call but with the back up quarterback in, I have to lean towards SD. SAN DEIGO 27 KANSAS CITY 17
Philadelphia -3.5 DALLAS 51
Philly’s win over Houston was closer than the 34-24 final score indicates. They were out rushed 4.2ypr to 4.0ypr but out passed Houston 8.9yps to 8.5yps. Overall, Houston out gained Philly 6.7yppl to 6.6yppl. Dallas jumped out to a 17-0 lead over Indianapolis and then needed a big interception in OT to win 38-35 at Indy. The Cowboys won the turnover battle 4-0 and out rushed Indy 4.7ypr to 2.4ypr (217-40) but were out passed 7.6yps to 5.4yps. Overall, Indy out gained Dallas 6.2yppl to 5.0yppl. Indy threw the ball 20 more times than Dallas, while the Cowboys ran the ball 29 more times than Indy.
Philadelphia averages 5.2ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.8yps against 6.4yps and 6.1yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. Dallas averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.1yps against 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl.
Philadelphia qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 392-252-18. Numbers favor Philly by 3.5 points and predict about 60 points. Philly continues to score with Michael Vick starting and finishing games as they have scored at least 26 points in each of those games. Nothing wrong with the Dallas offense since Jason Garrett took over as head coach as they have scored at least 27 in each game and 33 or more in three of those four games. The Dallas defense also continues to give up an average of 27 points to above average offenses. Philly may be without Asante Samuel again this week and his injury as affected the Philly defense. They have allowed at least 24 points in five of their last six games. I’ll lean towards Philly because of the situation and the value seems fair but the Samuel injury is enough to keep me off them laying points on the road. I do like the over in this game as both teams are showing an ability to move the ball on offense on a consistent basis. PHILADELPHIA 34 DALLAS 27
Baltimore -3 HOUSTON 46
Baltimore was one first down away from putting away the Steelers last Sunday night but a costly sack and fumble opened the doors for Pittsburgh and they took full advantage in their 13-10 win at Baltimore. The Ravens only allowed 2.3ypr but gained just 2.2ypr themselves. They threw the ball better than Pittsburgh at 6.1yps to 5.7yps and out gained the Steelers 4.7yppl to 4.4yppl. Houston played relatively well at Philadelphia last Thursday night but came up short 34-24. They out rushed the Eagles, 4.2ypr to 4.0ypr, were out passed 8.9yps to 8.5yps but out gained the Eagles overall, 6.7yppl to 6.6yppl.
Baltimore averages 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.6yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Houston averages 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.6yps against 6.5yps and 6.1yppl against 5.6yppl.
Houston qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 136-71-5 and 392-252-18. Numbers favor Houston by .5 point and predict about 44 points. No question Baltimore brings the better defense in this game and that is a concern for me but at least Houston is getting points in this game. But, I also feel Baltimore is slightly overrated as their offense is below average and their defense is slightly above average. Baltimore is slightly better in the match ups but being on the road evens that out. No question Houston is struggling but Baltimore hasn’t exactly lit it up on the road either. They have won by one over the Jets, lost at Cincinnati, won by three at Pittsburgh without Roethlisberger, lost by three at NE and lost by five at Atlanta. I don’t count the Carolina game seeing they are terrible this year. Normally I wouldn’t consider a defensive team like Houston in this situation but the situations and the value say otherwise and Houston came through for me at the Jets a few weeks ago. The Ravens haven’t scored more than 21 points on the road other than their game at Carolina, where the defense chipped to help them score. HOUSTON 24 BALTIMORE 21
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Denver Sports Advisors
4 Units Denver Broncos -4
3 Units Green Bay Packers -6.5
3 Units Cleveland Browns +1
Wunderdog
Carolina Panthers +7.5
Chicago Bears +3
Detroit Lions +7
Detroit Lions Under 47
Minnesota Vikings +3
New York Jets Over 39.5
Washington Redskins +2
STREET ROSENTHAL
*200 San Francisco 49ers -5
*200 Philadelphia Eagles -3
DOUBLE DRAGON
PACKERS -6.5
BEARS +3
FALCONS-7
BENGALS +8.5
CHARGERS -8.5
COWBOYS +3.5
RAVENS -PK
Bobby Maxwell
Jets -5.5
Broncos -4
Steve Budin
Saints