Trace Adams
Jaguars
Saints
2-Minute Warning
Denver Broncos
Chuck O'Brien
40 Dime Chicago Bears
The play here is on the Bears as a home underdog in an interconference clash with New England. As I go live with this selection, Chicago is a solid three-point pup acrhoss the board. Money has been coming in on the Bears the last two days, so we’re now seeing Chicago laying -120 at +3. Hopefully you have multiple wagering options that allow you to take advantage of the best value available on this game.
I failed to recognize the trap Vegas laid down in Thursday’s Colts-Titans game, but I’m not about to get fooled again. Much as the entire betting world jumped on the Colts’ bandwagon Thursday (in what was mostly a play against Tennessee) and got flattened, everyone is loading up New England today. Why? Because the Patriots have won four in a row, including Monday’s 45-3 destruction of the Jets (which followed impressive victories over two other playoff contending teams – Pittsburgh and Indianapolis – and a 21-point Thanksgiving Day road rout of the Lions). And the Patriots’ 10-2 record is tied with Atlanta for tops in the league.
Hey, I’m the first to admit I’ve underestimated New England at times this season (including Monday night), but I’m telling you this is the ultimate flat spot for a bunch of reasons. First, do you realize that New England has yet to play consecutive home games this year? That means they’ve been on a plane every single week this season, and this marks their fifth road game in the last eight weeks. Going back to Oct. 24, the Pats’ itinerary has been as follows: Fly from New England to San Diego back to New England to Cleveland to Pittsburgh back to New England to Detroit back to New England and now to Chicago. That is just brutal. … While the Pats hit the road for the fifth time in eight weeks, Chicago is playing at home for the fifth time in eight weeks. And while everyone is going ga-ga over New England’s four-game winning streak, nobody seems to care that Chicago has won five in a row, including dominating home victories over the Vikings (27-13) and Eagles (31-26, and the Bears led 31-14) sandwiched around three road wins (Buffalo, Miami, Detroit).
Yes, Tom Brady (17 TDs, 0 INTs last seven games) and the Patriots have been a machine offensively lately (39, 31, 45, 45 points last four weeks). But the Bears have allowed more than 23 points just once all year (the 26 they gave up to Mike Vick and Philadelphia, 16 of which were scored in garbage time). And after last week’s 24-20 win at Detroit, Chicago has held 10 of 12 opponents to 20 points or less. That includes 17 points to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers; 20 points to Tony Romo and the Cowboys (road); 17 points to Eli Manning and the Giants (road); and 13 points to Brett Favre and the Vikings. … At the same time, don’t be fooled by New England’s defensive effort against Mark Sanchez and the Jets last week. Prior to that, the Patriots had given up 24, 28, 26 and 34 points; they’re allowing 391 total yards per game (only the Redskins at 397 are worse); they’re allowing 277 passing ypg (only the Texans at 287 are worse); opposing QBs are completing 67.1 percent of their passes (only Dallas at 67.8 is worse); they have the worst third-down defense in the league; and prior to picking off Sanchez three times on Monday, New England had forced just seven INTs all season.
The Patriots are on a 6-2-1 ATS roll, including consecutive covers the last two weeks, but they haven’t cashed in three straight games this season. They’ve also covered just once in their last five when favored by a field goal or less, and they’re 0-3-1 ATS in their last four following a Monday night game. … Chicago comes in on ATS runs of 3-1-1 overall, 6-1 as an underdog, 5-0 as a short underdog (three points or less) and 7-3 as a home pup. And dispelling the notion that the Bears have taken advantage of a weak schedule, they’re 4-0 ATS in their last four against winning teams. Also, even though these teams meet very infrequently, the host has cashed in each of the last four battles (three outright wins).
Simply put, the Bears have been proving their doubters wrong all season and have been playing the disrespect card to the hilt. They’ll rally around each other again and not only get the cover, but the outright upset of the Pats, who are ripe for the picking.
Joel Tyson
75 Dime Atlanta Falcons
2nd road game in a row, and 3rd in the last 4 weeks for the Falcons, and normally that would be a red-flag when laying this amount of points, but let's be real, the Carolina Panthers are just playing out the season.
This team is setting itself up for next season. Just 1 outright win through a dozen games played, and the points haven't been all that much help either as Carolina is just 3-9 against the math in those 12 games.
All things considered, this should easily be a 14-point win for the Falcons who come into Bank of America Stadium with a 10-2 straight up record, and thoughts of nailing down the NFC's top record so they can host all of their playoff games this postseason.
Atlanta has covered 4 straight when laying points, and 7 of 10 overall this season when listed as the favorite.
Of course laying a TD on the road in the NFL can sometimes lead to failure, but this Carolina team has been decimated by injuries, and this Atlanta team is still not getting the respect that they should, as this line could easily be closer to double-digits and I would still lay it.
1st Ever 75 Dime Division Game of the Year is Atlanta all day long!
Trace Adams
1500♦ Jacksonville
500♦ St Louis
Well, well, well, Just when you thought the Raiders were dead, they rise up and slap divasion rival San Diego 28-13 in San Diego to raise some eye brows.
Perfect situation today to back the host Jags, as I highly doubt the Raiders are going to come through in this road spot todhay.
Jacksonville knows Indianapolis is ripe for the picking in the AFC South division, and the Jaguars will not let this golden opoortunity pass them by at home today.
Jax has won 4 of their last 5 straight up, covering ALL 5, and they have won and covered 4 of their 6 home games this season.
This is Oakland's 2nd in a row on the road, and their 3rd in the last 4 weeks away from the Black Hole. The Raiders have been wildly inconsistent this year, and just because they beat up on the Bolts last week does not make me want to back them plus the small points this week on the road.
Jaguars grind down the Raiders today for a big win and cover.
I think the Saints continue to be an overpriced favorite, as New Orleans certainly has the firepower to blow teams out, but their injury situation has led to consistency problems with Drew Brees, and Brees has been far more generous this season turning over the ball then he was last season.
That has led to a pair of blown covers their last 2 games, and has put the Saints at 4-7-1 now for the year against the spread.
St. Louis is playing their 3rd in a row on the road, usually a "go against" for me, but they are just getting too many points for me to pass on today.
The Rams have covered 6 of their last 7 overall, and have covered 7 of their 10 this year when getting points.
With St. Louis vying for the top-spot in the NFC West, look for them to play this one against the Saints close to the vest.
Saints win it, but the Rams cover it.
JIM FEIST
OAKLAND RAIDERS VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS.
TAKE: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS.
A long road trip for the Raiders, who have already traveled to Tennessee and Pittsburgh (losses of 38-13 and 35-3) and played at San Diego Sunday, a big 28-13 win. The Raiders (6-6) have been up and down all season and I don't trust this run defense, allowing 124 yards per game, 25th in the NFL. I also don't trust QBs Jason Campbell (8 TDs, 6 INTs) or Bruce Gradkowski (5 TDs, 7 INTs), who have battled injuries and shared time. The Raiders were blown out of the water at home by the Dolphins, 33-17. They were outgained 471-263. Even more alarming was a run defense that gave up 186 yards to Miami, a problem all season. The Oakland offensive line has allowed 34 QB sacks in 12 games. The Raiders also lead the league with 115 penalties for 989 yards. Oakland is 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS on the road. Jacksonville (7-5 SU/8-4 ATS) is motivated and in the hunt, taking over first place with the Colts struggling. Ever since the Kansas City Chiefs stampeded them for 236 yards a month ago, the Jaguars have been stoning ball carriers. Peyton Hillis, a 245-pound back, came in averaging 4.8 yards per carry, but was held to 48 yards on 21 carries. Defensive tackle Terrance Knighton is playing well, along with linebackers Daryl Smith, Justin Durant and Kirk Morrison. They outrushed the Giants by an impressive 207-135, but turned it over twice in a 24-20 loss giving up 4 sacks. RB Jones-Drew was the story Sunday, with 186 yards rushing in a 17-6 win at Tennessee as the defense allowed 220 total yards (57 rushing). It's his fifth 100-yard rushing game in a row, the first time he's done that in his career. Dirk Koetter kept the Titans off balance with tight end Zach Miller running a couple end-arounds and having Garrard run a naked bootleg or option keeper. The Jaguars held an opponent under 90 yards rushing for the fourth time in the last five games, all wins. Jacksonville is 4-2 SU/ATS at home and wins by double digits against the road weary Raiders. Play the Jaguars!
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
5* Denver
4* San Francisco
4* San Diego
3* Atlanta
3* Jags/Raiders Over
Maddux Sports
20 Units Bears +3
10 Units Steelers -8.5
10 Units Lions +6.5
10 Units Redskins +1
10 Units Saints -8.5
10 Units Cowboys +4
10 Units Texans +3
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Redskins
Billionaire - Bears
No Limit - Texans
Pinnacle - Vikings
Board of Directors - Rams
Prime Time TV - Cowboys
Perfect Play - Lions
GREAT LAKES SPORTS
5* GOY COWBOYS +4
ATS Lock Club
6 Units San Diego-9
5 Units Jacksonville-3.5
4 Units New Orleans -8.5
4 Units Jets -5
4 Units Lasalle +9
Bob Valentino
Redskins
Jimmy Boyd
5* Eagles -3.5
4* Redskins +3
4* Packers -6.5
Al DeMarco
Cowboys / Eagles Over
Will Cover
Kent St
Florida St
Lenny Stevens
20* Jacksonville
20* Chicago
10* Denver
10* Detroit
OC Dooley
5 Units Washington
3 Units Chicago Under
2 Units Cincinnati
2 Units Buffalo
2 Units Dallas
Gary Sanders
Oakland
San Diego
Chicago
NY Jets Under
RAS
Drake +6
Portland State -4.5
Northcoast
5* GOY New Orleans
3* Pittsburgh
3* San Diego