Jeff Benton
50 Dime Bears
15 Dime Bears ML
I generally stick with the philosophy that whenever one team is catching the majority of the action, I run the other way. I didn’t stay true to the principal on Thursday when I – along with pretty much every other ‘capper at this website and across the land – played the Colts as a 3½-point road favorite at Tennessee. And we all know how that turned out: The Colts jumped out to a 21-0 lead, couldn’t completely put the Titans away and – after kicking a field goal to go up 30-21 with 2:55 to play – they left the backdoor wide open and the Titans waltzed right on through it, scoring a meaningless TD with no time left on the clock to lose 30-28.
Well, this Bears-Patriots game smells very much like that Indy-Tennessee contest, as Vegas is BEGGING the public to lay the “cheap” price with red-hot New England. In actuality, though, this game looks even more similar to the Patriots-Browns game back on Nov. 7. I remember that game very fondly (and hope you do too!), as I had a 50 Dime winner on Cleveland plus the points and a 15 Dime bonus money-line winner on the Browns (at +180).
To reset the scene in that one: The Patriots went to Ohio riding a five-game winning streak, only it was a bit of a fraudulent streak as it included three straight narrow wins over the Ravens (23-20 in overtime), Chargers (23-20, with San Diego missing a game-tying field goal at the gun) and Vikings (28-18, with the Minnesota down just 21-18 late in the fourth quarter). After the hard-fought, emotional Vikings win, the Patriots hit the road for Cleveland, fell behind 10-0 and never were in the game, losing 34-14 as a four-point underdog, as Peyton Hillis ran for 184 yards and two TDs and rookie Colt McCoy (14-for-19, 174 yards) played every bit as good as Tom Brady (19-for-36, 224 yards).
Well, since that loss, the Patriots have ripped off four straight wins (3-1 ATS), including a 45-3 thrashing of the Jets on Monday night. So here’s New England taking another long winning streak on the road – its fourth roadie in the last six weeks and fifth in the last eight, by the way – and it is laying a few points against what everyone assumes is an overmatched opponent. Funny thing is, the Patriots aren’t the first team this year to go to the Windy City as a small favorite. Green Bay did it in Week 3 and lost 20-17 as a three-point favorite. Philadelphia did it two weeks ago and lost 31-26 as a three-point favorite. And even the Bears’ home game against the Vikings a month ago was a pick-em contest, and Minnesota got destroyed 27-13.
Here’s my point: The Bears have been vastly underrated this season. How much so? I’m five paragraphs into this analysis and I’m just now getting to this fact: Chicago is riding a five-game winning streak, one game longer than the Patriots’ current run! Why is that every so-called expert is crowning the 10-2 Patriots as 2011 Super Bowl champs but the same geniuses believe 9-3 Bears won’t even make the playoffs? I have no idea. Yeah, I know Chicago continues to have problems protecting QB Jay Cutler, but the Patriots rank among in the bottom third of the league with 19 sacks (only five other teams have fewer).
And while we’re on the topic of defensive rankings, get a load of this: The Bears rank third in scoring defense, third in total defense, second in rushing defense and 13th in passing defense. The Patriots rank 19th in scoring defense, 19th in rushing defense, 31st in total defense and 31st in passing defense. And while Chicago has given up 20 points or less in 10 of 12 games (and allowed just 23 and 26 in the other two), New England had surrendered 112 points in four games prior to beating up Mark Sanchez and the overrated Jets. Additionally, the Pats have allowed 24 points or more in seven of 12 contests, and now they’re facing a Bears club that’s generated exactly 24 ppg over the course of its five-game winning streak.
Bottom line here, guys: The Patriots are good – very good. And Brady has been unconscious over the last seven weeks with 17 TDs vs. zero picks. But New England is in a VERY tricky spot here against a solid opponent that fields an outstanding defense. And if you’re giving me points with that defense, which (again) has given up the third fewest yards in the league, against a defense that (again) has given up the second most yards in the league, I’m taking it.
And as a parting thought, consider these three facts: 1) New England has failed to cover in its last five games following a Monday night contest; 2) Chicago is on a 6-1 ATS run as an underdog (5-0 ATS as a ‘dog of three points or less); and 3) if you take out the Bears win over Minnesota (a pick-em or one-point spread), the underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in Chicago’s games this season, including outright upsets for the Bears against the Cowboys, Packers, Dolphins and Eagles!
Chicago does it again, 24-19
DON WALLACE SPORTS
10 UNITS - CLEVELAND +12.5
3 UNITS - SAN ANTONIO -8
3 UNITS - NEW YORK -1.5
DAVID BANKS
ATL.FALCONS
CINN BENGALS
NO SAINTS
CHI BEARS
PHIL EAGLES
OVER 51
SA SPURS
VILLANOVA
Ben Burns
10* Chargers
10* Bills
10* Panthers
9* Redskins
9* Cardinals
9* Cowboys/Eagles Under
8* Bears
ASA
6* Falcons
3* Bears
3* Bears Under
3* Dolphins
MTi Sports
4* Hornets Under
ETHAN LAW
2% MIAMI +5
2% CINCINNATI +8.5
Jim Feist
3* LA Clippers +7
Helmut
La Salle Under 149
KELSO
50 Units Atlanta -7
25 Units Seattle +5
20 Units Bears +3
20 Units Phil +3.5
10 Unit Parlay Bears & Eagles
3 Units Bengals +8.5
3 Units Jacksonville -3.5
25 Units Ohio State -27
15 Units Wake Forest -9
10 Units Va Tech-8
Marc Lawrence
Chicago Bears +3
Quick turnaround for the Patriots who fly off to Chicago following Monday night’s explosive 42-point win over the Jets. It marked the first time in its last six games the Pats’ defense did not surrender more than 400 yards in a game. The reward for winning a huge division revenge game is to now take to the road as favorites against a surging squad that owns nearly 100 yards the better defense. We don’t think so. Not with a team that is 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS against .700 or greater teams hailing out of the NFC Black-and-Blue division (North and/or Central) the last 13 years. And not with Bill Belichick standing 0-4-1 ATS in his career in games off a win of 30+ points when facing an opponent off back-to-back victories. On the flip side, Chicago has really come to life following its Bye Week, entering today’s game on a five-game win skein. That’s great news for the Bears knowing that home dogs on a five-game win streak are 8-1 ATS when hosting a foe off a double-digit ATS win, winning six for the games in straight up fashion. Finally, if you think stepping up in class is a problem for the 2010 Good News Bears you can forget about it as Chicago has won and covered all three games they have played against teams sporting winning records this campaign – all as an underdog! Toss in the fact that NFL home dogs on a five game win streak are 6-0 ATS against opponents off a win of 24 or more points since 1980 and we have the look of another live home dog in this matchup. New England had better arrive early to the Windy City. This has all the makings of a TSA ‘Pat-down’. We recommend a 3-unit play on Chicago.
Lenny Del Genio
Cleveland +1
The Browns were a big winner for us as an Oddsmaker Mismatch play LW, winning outright at Miami 13-10 (as five-point dogs) in a game that featured very little offense. This game shapes up very similarly and quite frankly we can't believe the Bills would be actually favored. Believe it or not, but Buffalo has actually been favored in a pair of games TY and has gone 0-1-1 ATS, losing outright to Jacksonville and pushing in their first win of the season over Detroit. The Bills were a good play for us a couple of weeks ago when they beat Cincinnati 49-31 outright as four-point pups, which they followed up with an OT loss (and ATS win) at home vs. Pittsburgh, their third OT loss this yr and fourth loss by a FG in six games. Then, they got completely exposed LW in a 38-14 loss to the Vikings. The Bills run defense ranks dead last in the league and was run over LW by the Vikings for the tune of 210 yards. This week they face Peyton Hillis, who will become the first white RB (whatever that's worth) to rush for 1000 yds since Craig James did it in '85 and will also be the first Browns RB to run for 11 TD's since Jim Brown and Leroy Kelly! Cleveland doesn't have a loss anywhere near as bad as Buffalo's last week. They always play tough. They are 4-2 SU the last six weeks with the only losses to the Jets (in OT) and Jaguars (at the gun) by a combined 10 pts. They are 13-5 ATS their last 18 conference games and are 6-0 ATS their last six on turf. Bad weather is expected for this game which favors the run heavy Browns. These teams have played each of the last two years here in Buffalo and the weather has not been good either time. Cleveland won and covered both times. Except for the explosion against Cincinnati, Buffalo has scored 19 points or less five of the last six weeks. Take Cleveland.
Tampa Bay/Washington Over 41
Tampa Bay has absolutely broken our hearts each of the last two weeks, first sneaking in through the back door in a 20-14 loss at Baltimore (were +7) and then LW blowing a 10 pt 4th quarter lead at home to Atlanta, losing 28-24 as three-point dogs. They are 6-0 ATS on the road this season and are now actually favored at Washington this week. Meanwhile, we played the total in the Skins game last week and won with Under 43 as they lost to the Giants 31-7. It was the third straight Washington game that went Under the total, but we had to keep our fingers crossed as QB McNabb was leading the team down the field for a garbage time TD before throwing an INT at the Giants 20 in the final minute. These teams played last year and went Under the total with a 16-13 final in favor of Washington. We buck convention here and side with the Over. Why? No team passes more the Washington, who runs it only 37.3% of the time. Not surprisingly, McNabb leads the league in incompletions at 18 per game. Tampa Bay has lost a starter in the secondary each of the last two weeks, so they could be susceptible against a pass-happy offense. Meanwhile, the Redskins defense is allowing 25.5 PPG at home this season. Take Over Tampa Bay/Washington.
Miami +6
This is a huge letdown spot for the Jets, who crashed and burned big time on Monday night losing to the hated rival Patriots 45-3 in humiliating fashion. On a short week, it will be very difficult to get up for yet another division game, particularly as a big favorite, this one against the division rival Dolphins. We played New York the first time these teams met, back in Week 3, when they won outright in South Beach on a Sunday night. That was a big play - a "VEGAS ICON" for us. Now we will go the other way noting that the Jets are 11-24 ATS off a division road loss. They are 37-63 ATS at home off a road game period. The Fins have a strong home/road dichotomy this season, but its probably the opposite of what you think. They are 5-1 SU/ATS on the road this season, but 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS at home. We went against them LW hosting Cleveland as they lost outright to the Browns 13-10 as five-point chalk. Taking Miami with the points is the way to go as they are 12-4 ATS as a road dog for HC Sparano. Overall, they are 14-8 SU away from home during his tenure. Don't forget that Cleveland also beat New England and took the Jets outright, so we're not too worried about LW's loss for Miami. Before losing to the Patriots LW, New York beat Cincinnati on Thanksgiving night. Prior to that, they beat Denver, Cleveland, Detroit and Houston by a combined 14 points and had a 9-0 home loss to Green Bay. Take Miami.
Hunter Price
NFL Game of the Year
10 Units - New England Patriots -2
I've had this game circled on my calender for just about the last 2 months and things have shaped up perfecting to lay the hammer down on one of the most over rated teams in the league [Da Bears]. If you look at just the X and O's aspect of this game 10 out of ten times I'll take my chances with Belichick and company over Lovie Smith. I realize that weather could play a monumental factor in this game. The current weather forecasts are calling for winds in excess of 30 mph from the North, which will put it running right from one end zone to the other. Additionally, there could be 5-7 inches of snow and sleet that comes down. This will cause nightmares for both teams trying to pass the ball when they are going against the wind. As such I will take my chances with the New England offensive game plan as it is much less of a finesse scheme as Chicago employs with Mike Martz running the show. The Pats on the other hand are a grind it out team with a Hall of Famer under center. Lets roll with the road squad to head into Chicago and get the job done by 7-10.
MR EAST
4 UNITS DUQUENSE +6
Larry Ness
8* Jacksonville -3.5
After two straight games where their defense allowed 33 and 35 points respectively, the Raiders caught "lightning in a bottle" last week and buried the Chargers in San Diego, 28-13. However, after that startling performance that brought Oakland to an even 6-6 record, the Raiders must endure a tough challenge in having to travel to the East Coast to play in a 1:00 PM early game. Oakland has lost four of its six games on the road with its defense allowing 396 YPG along with 27 PPG over the last three games. Oakland must now play a team which has quietly become one of the hottest teams in the league. Jacksonville returns home after two straight games on the road, culminating in a 17-6 win against the Titans. The Jags have now put together FOUR wins over their last five games to climb into first place in the AFC South with a 7-5 record. Jack Del Rio's club is getting it done in the trenches by running the football and stopping the opponents' rushing attack. Maurice Jones-Drew has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last five games, leading an offensive unit that is 2nd in the NFL by averaging 150.8 rushing YPG on the ground (4.6 YPC) Jacksonville is gaining over 200 YPG rushing the football in its last three games and the Jags should be able to continue to establish a strong ground game against a Raiders defense that is 23rd in the NFL by allowing 124.3 rushing YPG (4.4 YPC). Oakland will also want to get its running game going as well, as the Raiders are 3rd in the NFL with their 149 rushing YPG average. However, the Jaguars run defense has gotten better as the season has moved on. Last week, Chris Johnson and the Titans' rushing game managed only 57 yards on the ground. Over their last three games, the Jags have held opponents to only 93.3 rushing YPG. The Raiders have been an inconsistent football team this season. Off their big win over San Diego last week, the difficult travel and kickoff time for West Coast teams will likely lay the seeds for a poor Oakland outing against a surging Jacksonville team.
8* Washington +3
Washington has now lost FOUR of its last five games, after falling to NFC East division rival the New York Giants 31-7 last Sunday. Despite that score, the Redskins were outgained in total yardage by only 10 yards. SIX turnovers made the difference in this game, including six Washington fumbles that resulted in four recoveries for the Giants. That is unlikely to repeat itself this week against Tampa Bay. The Redskins will benefit with the likely return of their top RB, Ryan Torain, who is listed as probable for this game, fighting off his knee injury. Torain is leading Washington with his 4.3 YPC. His return will help the Redskins exploit a suspect Buccaneers run defense that is 26th in the NFL by allowing 128.5 YPG (also 4.6 YPC) Torain's ability to run the football will take some pressure off QB Donovan McNabb and it should help open up Washington's passing offense that ranks 9th in the NFL by gaining 243.8 YPG. While Torain will be joining the active roster again this week, the Redskins will be without defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth for the rest of the season after Mike Shanahan suspended him for the rest of the season for conduct detrimental to the team. Frankly, I suspect this move will help the team grow closer together. Haynesworth had "one rogue" (ala Sarah Palin) regarding following coaching instructions on the field and the results were clearly not working. Shanahan's decision to finally make a stand should help the cohesiveness of the defense. Washington's defense cannot get any worse, as it ranks dead-last in the NFL by allowing 397.3 YPG. However, Washington has a nice opportunity for an improved effort against a Tampa Bay offense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in both yardage (319.8 YPG) and scoring (20.2 PPG). Also note that the Bucs could be without one of their key weapons in rookie wide receiver Mike Williams, who remains listed as questionable with knee injury. It's been a well-documented stat that the Bucs are winless vs winning opponents this year (0-5) while going a perfect 7-0 vs losing ones. While the 5-7 Redskins fall into that "losing" category, the Bucs have been installed as a road favorite in this game, for the first time all season. This has not been a favorable proposition for this franchise in its recent history, as Tampa Bay has only covered THREE times in the last 16occasions where the Bucs have been laying the points away from home. I'm fairly confident that McNabb and Shanahan will "get the job" in this spot, as I expect the Bucs to 'fold' down the stretch.
8* Tampa Bay / Washington Over 41
I'm also playing this game over. Donovan McNabb throws the most incompletions per game of any QB in the NFL, which stops the clock. Even with Torain returning, don't expect the Redskins to drastically increase its running amount of running plays, as the Tampa Bay secondary has lost DB starters in each of the last two Sundays. Meanwhile, Josh Freeman should be able to move the ball vs the sieve-like Washington defense. Go Over a very "makeable" number.
8* Las Vegas Insider New Orleans -8.5
St Louis has won two games in a row on the road after the Rams dispatched the hapless Cardinals by a 19-6 score last Sunday. However, it may be too much to ask for them to stay competitive against the defending Super Bowl Champions, in their THIRD straight game away from home. The Rams solid defense has let up on the road, allowing hosts to gain 355.5 YPG and score 23.3 PPG. They now have to face a Saints team that will happy to return to New Orleans after two straight games way from home (and three of their last four games on the road). The Saints are 'heating up' in the stretch drive of the season, having won FIVE straight after taking care of business in Cincinnati against the Bengals by a 34-30 margin. The Saints are gaining 448 YPG along with scoring 32.7 PPG over their last three games and will give this St Louis defense "all it wants!" The New Orleans offense is getting back to 100% as RB Pierre Thomas looks to return to play for the first time since he was injured in Week 3 against the Falcons. The New Orleans defense has improved this season under the second year of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, ranking 3rd against the pass (199.2 passing YPG), 9th in total defense (307.1 YPG) and 5th in points allowed (18.9 PPG). While rookie Sam Bradford shows promise in his first year at QB for the Rams, I do not see him being able to match what Drew Brees will be able to do in the Superdome. Brees is completing 69.5 percent of his passes with 25 TDs and will easily surpass 4,000 yards passing this season for the FIFTH consecutive year! The St Louis offense ranks 25th in the NFL in both yardage (314.7 YPG) and scoring (19.3 PPG). New Orleans has an excellent opportunity to put up a big number in this one against the road weary Rams and that's EXACTLY what I expect them to do!
8* San Francisco -5
Seattle evened its record at 6-6 (and tied for first place in the NFC West with the Rams) after the team's 31-14 victory over the hapless Carolina Panthers last week. However, the Seahawks as a franchise have been terrible propositions after a win by at least two TDs. Seattle is a woeful 3-22-2 ATS in its last 27 games following a victory of at least 14 points. I could stop the analysis right here, as there is every reason to believe that this season's club is VERY likely to continue this level of inconsistent futility (or should I say consistent futility?). Despite Seattle's .500 record, this is NOT a good football team! The offense is just 30th in the league in rushing (84.8 YPG) which helps explain why the offense averages only 305.3 YPG (28th in the NFL) under the direction of first-year head coach Pete Carroll. The defense (supposedly Carroll's specialty) is 30th in the league against the pass (268.1 YPG) and 30th in total defense (389.3 YPG). The defense has been particularly vulnerable on the road, allowing 297.5 passing YPG, 398.5 total YPG and 26 PPG. Even worse, over their last three games, the Seahawks defense is allowing 426.7 YPG along with the 30 PPG. This unit will be a welcome sight for a 49ers offense that has struggled this season. Alex Smith returns to taking snaps under center after Troy Smith was benched for his ineffective play last week in San Francisco's 34-16 loss at Green Bay. The 49ers will certainly benefit in returning home after two straight games on the road. Despite its struggles that has led to their 4-8 record, the San Francisco defense has still met expectations this season, ranking 11th in the NFL by holding teams to a modest 324.6 YPG. At home, this unit has been even stingier, limiting its guests to only 289.8 YPG. The 49ers should rebound with a much better effort than the one we saw at Lambeau Field last Sunday (note: the Packers are pretty good!), as they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing 30 or more points in their previous game. Seattle, on the other hand, has been a consistent pushover on the road, given the fact that the Seahawks have only covered TWICE in their last 14 road underdog situations! San Francisco's defense should lead the way to a win (and more importantly, a cover).
LT Profits
3* Cleveland Pk
2* Philadelphia -3.5
2* Minnesota +3