Ben Burns
9* Washington +3
The Bucs have had a great season. They're off a very difficult defeat vs. the division-leading Falcons though - a loss which should "seal the deal" in terms of them not making the playoffs. While they're still very much alive for a Wildcard spot, off back to back losses, reality is starting to set in. The fact that they had an opportunity to win last week's "big game," one which saw them really "leave everything on the field," figures to have a deflating effect.
Off a "difficult defeat" of their own two weeks ago (17-13 loss vs. the Vikes) the Redskins stumbled last week, getting blown out at New York. Note that the last time that they got "blown out," they bounced back with an outright victory (vs. Tennessee) when listed as a small underdog and facing a team which seemingly had far more to play for.
Clearly, they Bucs are an improved team from last season. However, keep in mind that they've still given up more points than they've scored on the season. Also, note that they were +9.5 underdogs when they played here last season. Now, despite being in a potential "letdown" situation, they're favored. That's a huge swing and, given the situation, I believe its too big of one.
The Bucs are 4-8 ATS (2-10 SU) the last dozen times that they were off back to back losses. On the other hand, during the same stretch, the Skins were 6-3-2 ATS when coming off back to back losses. I look for them to improve on those stats here.
Evan Altemus
1* Bengals +9
Pittsburgh hasn't really dominated any opponent besides Oakland this season. The Bengals were also very competitive against the Steelers earlier in the season after failing to score a game winning touchdown late in the game. Divisional games are always very competitive in the AFC North as well. Weather is expected to be fairly rough as well on Sunday in Pittsburgh, making it harder for the Steelers to win the game by margin. This is a value play but more importantly, it will win.
DAVID MALINSKY
PHILADELPHIA/NEW ORLEANS OVER 187.5
It was not going to take a guy like Doug Collins long to start figuring out the best way to deploy the pieces that he has to work with in Philadelphia. He has done some major tweaking in his rotation, seeing now that the best way to win with this group is to be aggressive and attack, since the defensive pieces are not going to become a good fit, and the result has been a 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS home-stand, with the only loss by a single point to the Celtics. But there is something even more important for our purposes today – those three games played Over the projected Totals by counts of 13, 17 and 13.5. And that includes scoring 101 vs. Boston and 109 vs. Charlotte, which is not easy to do. So we call for more of the same today, with the markets slow to react.
Collins has been going with a tighter rotation, and also getting more minutes for Jodie Meeks to open up opposing defenses. Meeks has scored 61 points in those three home games, seven players have scored in double figures in each of the last two outings, and there have been 67 assists vs. only 29 TO’s in the home-stand. With two days off to get the legs even fresher, look for them to set a brisk pace today, and again post another high level of offensive efficiency.
While the 76ers turn it up a notch, the Hornets remain in a funk, and in cashing that 4* ticket with Oklahoma City against them on Friday night, the New Orleans defense allowed 50 percent shooting, just two games after the Spurs had exploited them for 58.5 percent. Their full-season defensive numbers are still strong, but it does not represent the current realities, and that has us in the right place at the right time at a favorable price point, in a game in which it is easy to project the losing team to reach 95 points.
JIM FEIST
CINCINNATI BENGALS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS.
PLAY: CINCINNATI BENGALS
Reason: Inner Circle: Bengals. The Bengals have been in plenty of games, they just have struggled closing it out. They should have beaten the defending champion Saints on Sunday, another gut wrenching collapse, 34-30. Drew Brees threw a 3-yard touchdown pass to Marques Colston with 31 seconds left. 30-year old QB Carson Palmer (20 TDs, 15 INTs) has plenty of weapons with WRs Terrel Owens and Ocho Cinco. One problem is they are not winning the close ones, after losses to the Browns (23-20), Bucs (24-21), Falcons (39-32) and Dolphins (22-14), so they are not as bad as that record suggests. The Steelers (9-3 SU/8-4 ATS) come home from a big win at rival Baltimore, 13-10, as the defense was ferocious (54 yards rushing allowed) while Big Ben threw for 253 yards and a late TD to win it. Always a physical game, Steelers tight end Heath Miller sustained a concussion and offensive tackle Flozell Adams limped off the field with an ankle injury. The offensive line is banged up and has allowed 15 sacks the last four games (5 to the Bills, 3 to Ravens). This secondary is a weak spot and the division rival Bengals have the passing game to keep this closer than oddsmakers think. This is also a sandwich spot for the Steelers, with the Jets on deck.
Rocky Sheridan
76ers +1
Knicks -1.5
Orlando -7
Spurs -7.5
Lakers -8
California -1.5
Don Wallace Sports
4* Atlanta -7
4* New Orleans -9
4* San Francisco -5
4* San Diego -9.5
4* Philadelphia -3.5
Scott Spreitzer
Main Event KC Under
Massive Mismatch - Jags
Blockbuster - 49ers
KO Blowout - Chargers
Shock Value GOM - Bears
Smackdown - Eagles
TKO - 76ers
Blazers
Oklahoma
Dave Cokin
Window - Green Bay
O.C. Dooley
2 Units Cowboys +4
One may want to call this a “law of averages” selection which actually has a connection to a heavy-hyped All-Star laden squad from the NBA. It was back in the month of November when LeBron and the Miami Heat (1-13 ATS skid) cost bettors a fortune, but things have dramatically turned around in December as that squad has now won-and-covered 7 consecutive tickets. It seems like an eternity since Wade Phillips was head coach and the Dallas Cowboys (1-7 ATS) were nothing even close to resembling America’s Team. With interim head coach Jason Garrett at the controls, Dallas (3-1 SU/4-0 ATS) has started to show flashes of being the serious playoff contender that the world thought they were back in the beginning of the campaign. The lone straight-up loss with Garrett calling the shots was back on Thanksgiving when the Cowboys were down 17-0 in the opening quarter at home against New Orleans, but refused to quit which had been the case during the prior regime. In that Turkey Day 30-27 thriller, Dallas recorded their first “3 rushing touchdown” game since the Cowboys Stadium opener when back in September of 2009. In the four games with Jason Garrett, the Pokes have rushed for a grand total of 595 yards which is one of the reasons why a now “balanced” offense has averaged an eye-opening 33 yards per contest. The Cowboys as a whole are now playing with more focus and attention to detail even though star quarterback Tony Romo continues to be sidelined. Speaking of quarterbacks it was earlier this week that 1960’s hero and former Monday Night Football star analyst Don Meredith passed away, which brings special aura to this particular contest. You can bet that former Monday Night Football play-by-play announcer Al Michaels who now cashes NBC paychecks will be talking often tonight about Meredith who was essentially ahead of his time when star athletes rarely made the transition to the broadcast booth. It would be very easy to side with visiting Philadelphia in this particular contest since they not only are arguably one of the best teams in the NFC, they also have been outstanding in the month of December (16-3 SU, 13-5-1 ATS) in the past four-plus campaigns. In addition the Eagles were beaten by Dallas 3 different times a year ago including the playoffs, creating a “triple revenge” scenario. But the Philadelphia defense has had problems on the road allowing 31, 28, and 37 points the most recent three times they have hit the highway. The defensive struggles of both teams have led to a very high posted total for tonight’s game (51’) and that open the door to an interesting long term database angle. Dallas is an outstanding 8-1 ATS/HOME the last nine times they have had a posted total of 45’ points-or-higher. Here is an approaching 80-PERCENT SYSTEM (26-7 past five years in the “second half” of the season) which plays ON underdogs like Dallas following a high scoring road affair where both teams put at least 24 points on the scoreboard. That means last weekend’s wild 38-35 overtime shootout at Indianapolis has actually made the Dallas Cowboys are very high percentage wager this evening
Teddy Covers
Akron
Boston College
SEABASS
300* Bengals
200* Saints
200* Bears
200* Bills
200* Eagles
100* Teaser Broncos & Chargers
Dr. Bob
Orlando -7
San Antonio -7½
Cowtown Sports
2* Tampa Bay
Sports Bank
500* Arizona Over
Executive
600 Eagles