SIXTH SENSE
BEST BETS
YTD 36-34 –4.50%
3% NY JETS -3
3% BUFFALO PK
3% GREEN BAY -3.5
3% DALLAS -3
3% PHILADELPHIA PK
3% SAN FRANCISCO +3.5
3% NEW ORLEANS/ATLANTA OVER 50
INDIANAPOLIS -7 Denver 44
Denver dominated a bad KC team last week in their 44-13 victory. They out rushed the Chiefs 5.4ypr to 3.6ypr, out passed them 6.0yps to 2.8yps and overall 5.7yppl to 3.1yppl. Indy jumped out to a lead over Tennessee and the Titans could never get back in the game. Indy was out rushed, as expected, 4.3ypr to 3.3ypr, but out passed Tennessee 7.3yps to 5.3yps. Overall, they out gained the Titans 5.6yppl to 4.yppl. Denver averages just 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl but they allow only 5.2yps against 6.5yps and 4.6yppl against 6.4yppl. Indy doesn’t rush the ball well at 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr but throws the ball well, as usual, averaging 7.7yps against 6.5yps and 6.3yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense is also very strong against the pass, allowing just 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Indy by eight points and predict a total of 41 points. Indy has only played one tough defense at home this year and that was SF, who they defeated 18-14. The Broncos have only played one good offense on the road this year, SD, and they allowed 23 points in that game. Indy probably gets to about 24 points in this game. That means Denver needs to get to 17 points or more to cover, which they can probably do. INDIANPOLIS 24 DENVER 20
MINNESOTA -6.5 Cincinnati 43.5
Cincinnati got by Detroit in a game they controlled from start to finish but they were less than impressive in doing so. They were out rushed by Detroit 4.0ypr to 2.7ypr but did out gain them in rushing yards 119-80 thanks to 44 rushes versus just 20 rushing attempts for Detroit. They out passed Detroit 6.5yps to 5.2yps but were out gained overall 4.7yppl to 4.3yppl. The Vikings were dominated at Arizona from start to finish. That’s not something we’ve said yet this year. They were out rushed by Arizona 4.5ypr to 3.1ypr, out passed 8.9yps to 5.3yps and out gained overall 7.0yppl to 4.6yppl. Cincinnati struggles on offense, averaging just 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl but they have played well on defense, allowing 3.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Minnesota is throwing the ball much better these days, with last week the exception, as they average 7.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 6.1yps against 5.8yps and 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl so they remain below average on defense and lost EJ Henderson for the season last week. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Minnesota by 6.5 points and predict about 46 points. Cincinnati very quietly is allowing the fewest points in the league and the underdog has now gone 12-0 ATS in Bengal games this year. The Bengal’s haven’t allowed more than 24 points in a game this year with the lone exception an 11 point loss to Houston. Minnesota has scored at least 27 points in every game but two this year, including at least 27 in every home game so something has to give in this game. I like the Bengal’s to keep the game close as they have done all year long. MINNESOTA 27 CINCINNATI 21
NY Jets -3 TAMPA BAY 37
The Jets won a close game against Buffalo but the stats show it wasn’t nearly that close. They out rushed Buffalo 5.8ypr to 5.1ypr, including racking up 249 yards rushing. They out passed the Bills 3.7yps to 2.7yps and out gained the Bills overall 5.1yppl to 3.9yppl. TB out played Carolina from the line of scrimmage but were done it with crucial turnovers. They out rushed Carolina 5.9ypr to 4.8ypr, gaining 154 yards although they allowed 157 yards rushing to Carolina. They out passed Carolina 315-152 but were out gained per attempt 6.8yps to 7.2yps and out gained Carolina overall 6.5yps to 5.7yps. Those overall numbers are slightly skewed because TB threw the ball 25 times more than Carolina to inflate the overall yppl numbers. The Jets run the ball well, averaging 4.7ypr against 4.5ypr but average just 5.8yps against 6.4yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl overall on offense. The defense is very stout, allowing just 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 4.9yps against 6.2yps and 4.5yppl against 5.4yppl. TB also struggles to throw the ball, averaging just 5.3yps against 6.0yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They biggest difference between these two teams is on defense, where TB allows 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.8yps against 6.4yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. The Jets qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 694-557-43. Numbers favor the Jets by 8.5 points and predict about 37 points. Kellen Clemens gets the start for the Jets but they shouldn’t miss Sanchez much. Clemens doesn’t have as good of passing numbers as Sanchez but does carry a lower interception ratio and the Jets should spend much of the time on the ground. TB has their own injuries to deal with in this game as well. Jets have played two weak teams on the road this year and won both, 38-0 over the Raiders and 19-13 over the Bills. TB has won one game this year against GB, where they were beaten at the line of scrimmage, but won the special teams and turnover battle. Jets better rushing game and better defense win this game. NY JETS 24 TAMPA BAY 13
KANSAS CITY PK Buffalo 37
Buffalo lost a close game to the Jets on the scoreboard but were out gained pretty badly. They allowed the Jets to rush for 249 yards at 5.8ypr although they did manage 123 yards rushing at 5.1ypr themselves. They managed only 71 passing yards at 2.7yps but did hold the Jets to 82 passing yards at 3.7yps. Overall, they were out gained 5.1yppl to 3.9yppl. KC allowed over 400 yards of total offense again last week to Denver in their 44-13 drubbing. They allowed Denver to rush for 245 yards at 5.4ypr while gaining only 3.6ypr themselves. They also allowed Denver to pass for 6.0yps and managed just 2.8yps themselves. Overall, they were out gained 5.7yppl to 3.1yppl. Both these teams struggle on offense. Buffalo averages just 5.4yps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.4yppl. KC averages just 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.7yps against 6.0yps and 4.2yppl against 5.2yppl. The biggest difference between these two is on defense. Buffalo does struggle against the run, allowing 4.9ypr against 4.5ypr but they allow just 5.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl, making them above average on defense. KC allows 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr but a whopping 7.4yps against 6.6yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. Chiefs qualify in a couple of negative situations based on their poor defensive play last week, which are 88-42-4 and 78-33-2. Numbers favor Buffalo by three points and predict about 41 points. Bills won here last year 54-31. They have the better quarterback, running back, wide receivers and pass defense. Along with that they face a KC team who is horrible on defense and Buffalo has had a couple of extra days to prepare for this game. KC has now allowed 400 yards or more on defense in nine of their twelve games this year. The only games they did not allow at least 400 yards of offense were against Oakland twice and Washington. BUFFALO 24 KANSAS CITY 17
Green Bay -3.5 CHICAGO 41
Chicago has really fallen off over the last five weeks or so. They managed to get by the lowly Rams last week 17-9 but it was a weak offensive performance against a bad defensive team. They rushed the ball 38 times but at just 3.2ypr, while throwing the ball only 20 times at a more respectable 6.4yps. The Rams ran for 4.5ypr but threw for just 2.8yps. Overall, Chicago out gained the Rams 4.3yppl to 3.6yppl. The Packers jumped out to a big lead over Baltimore, let them back in it and then pulled away in the fourth quarter. They out rushed Baltimore 3.5ypr to 3.1ypr, out passed them 6.2yps to 3.1yps and out gained them overall 5.1yppl to 3.1yppl. The Packers offense continues to get better with their starters getting healthier each week. They are allowing a lot less sacks on offense and have all of their big play people now available. They average 6.7yps against 6.5yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. Where the biggest difference has come in with GB is on the defensive side of the ball. The team is adapting to the new 3-4 defense installed at the beginning of the year and the rookies – Matthews, Raji and Jones (replacing an ineffective Aaron Kampman) are starting to make noticeable plays. They allow just 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.4yps against 5.8yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. The Bears struggle to run the ball, averaging just 3.9ypr against 4.1ypr and are now well below average throwing the ball at 5.9yps against 6.3yps. Overall, on offense, they average just 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense is also struggling, allowing 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.8yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Packers qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 558-422-30 and 467-304-21. Numbers favor GB by 4.5 points and predict about 45 points. The Bears have faced six good defensive teams this year and averaged just 13 points (17 at home) per game. They have faced three good offensive teams at home this year and allowed an average of 26 points per game or a median of 24 points per game. The Packers haven’t faced a lot of good teams on the road this year with Minnesota being the only decent club. But, the Packers defense is playing at a level it hasn’t played at until now and should be able to stuff a less than stellar Bears offense which has injuries, including Devin Hester. Packers are better on both sides of the ball, have scored at least 21 points in all but one game this year, including at least 24 points when Jermichael Finley has started. GREEN BAY 27 CHICAGO 17
New Orleans -10 ATLANTA 50
The Saints survived their biggest scare of the year last week. They were actually out played pretty significantly by the Redskins. They were out rushed 3.5ypr to 2.3ypr, out passed 8.7yps to 8.2yps and out gained overall 6.8yppl to 6.3yppl. Nothing wrong with the offensive numbers for NO last week, although they probably would have liked to have better rushing numbers. But, they gave up huge offensive yards to a Washington offense that hasn’t been that good this year. Atlanta was without Matt Ryan and Michael Turner and was destroyed by Philly. They were out rushed 4.0ypr to 2.8ypr, out passed 9.6yps to 5.1yps and out gained overall 6.9yppl to 4.3yppl in their 34-7 loss. The Saints offense continues to chime along averaging 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 8.4yps against 6.3yps and 6.6yppl against 5.4yppl. They defense is about average, allowing 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Atlanta has really fallen apart. They are now below average running and throwing the ball at 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.9yps against 6.1yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. Defensively, they allow a whopping 7.2yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. That doesn’t bode well facing the leagues top offense. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor NO by 9.5 points and predict about 60 points. I went over in the first game between these two and will do so again. The Saints have totaled at least 51 points in all but one road game this year. If the Saints can get to 37 points in this game, which shouldn’t be that hard (they’ve done so in half their games this year), this game stands an excellent chance to go over the total. NEW ORLEANS 37 ATLANTA 24
BALTIMORE -13.5 Detroit 39.5
Detroit was actually respectable in their 10 point loss at Cincinnati last week. They out rushed Cincy 4.0ypr to 2.7ypr but were out passed 6.5yps to 5.2yps. Overall, they out gained Cincinnati 4.7yppl to 4.3yppl. Baltimore couldn’t get anything going on offense at GB as the Packers defense smothered the Ravens offense most of the night. They were out rushed 3.5ypr to 3.1ypr, out passed 6.2ypps to 3.1yps and out gained overall, 5.1yppl to 3.1yppl. Detroit really struggles to throw the ball at 5.1yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 6.2yppl. They also struggle to defend the pass at 7.5yps against 6.3yps and 4.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Baltimore is just above average on offense, gaining 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl but still defends the run well at 3.5ypr against 4.0ypr. Overall on defense they allow 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. Detroit qualifies in a league wide general situation, which is 51-22-1. Numbers favor Baltimore by 16.5 points and predict about 46 points. Detroit got a late score last week to backdoor Cincinnati and lose by 10 points. On the road this year they have lost by 18, 24, 26, 12, 17 and 10 points. Baltimore is struggling right now but they are good enough to handle bad teams. They have defeated the bad teams they have played this year by 14, 31 and 16 points, with the last game on the road. Ravens will probably be without Ed Reed again this week and the Lions are without Matthew Stafford. The situation supports the Lions but the history and value support Baltimore. BALTIMORE 33 DETROIT 14
JACKSONVILLE -2 Miami 44
Miami escaped with a win over NE last week but they were dominated by NE in that game. NE’s inability to score in the redzone was the culprit to their loss. Miami was out rushed 3.8ypr to 3.3ypr, out passed 12.1yps to 6.2yps and out gained overall 8.3yppl to 5.2yppl. Consider Miami threw the ball 24 more times than NE and those final yppl numbers are even skewed that much more. Jacksonville knocked Matt Schaub out of the game for the first quarter and into the second quarter and was able to jump on Houston early in the game. They out passed Houston 6.8yps to 6.0yps but were out gained overall 4.9yppl to 4.8yppl thanks to more passing attempts by Houston. Miami has become average running the ball at 4.5ypr against teams allowing 4.5ypr and they still struggle to throw the ball at 5.1yps against 5.8yps. Overall, they are well below average on offense at 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense struggles to defend the pass at 7.1yps against 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl overall. Jacksonville runs the ball well at 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr and averages 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl overall on offense. The defense is much like Miami in that it is above average defending the run but allowing 6.8yps against 6.1yps for a total of 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Jacksonville by just one point and predict about 49 points. Michael Sims-Walker will probably miss this game as will CB Rashean Mathis and DT John Henderson. Jacksonville has only played two games against above .500 teams this year and lost both of those games. While Miami isn’t above .500, they have won four of their last six games and I will lean their way because they are getting points. MIAMI 24 JACKSONVILLE 21
NEW ENGLAND -13 Carolina 43.5
Carolina was able to defeat TB but were dominated at the line of scrimmage. They allowed TB 5.9ypr to 4.8ypr, did out pass TB 7.2yps to 6.8yps and were out gained overall 6.5yps to 5.7yps. TB threw the ball 25 times more to help skew the overall yppl numbers. NE lost at Miami but dominated the game. They out rushed the Dolphins 3.8ypr to 3.3ypr, out passed them 12.1yps to 6.2yps and out gained them overall 8.3yppl to 5.2yppl. Miami threw the ball 24 times more or the overall yppl numbers would have been even worse. Carolina runs the ball well at 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr but can’t throw the ball, averaging just 5.3yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl overall on offense. The defense is just the opposite as they can’t defend the run at 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr but defend the pass at 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl overall. NE throws the ball well at 7.4yps against 6.1yps and 6.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They are about average on defense allowing 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor NE by 12 points and predict about 42 points. NE has lost five games on the road but are undefeated at home, scoring at least 25 points in every home game. Tough call here as Tom Brady is dinged up and it’s unknown how effective he will be. NEW ENGLAND 28 CAROLINA 14
HOUSTON -6.5 Seattle 44.5
Seattle defeated SF at home thanks to poor play calling by SF and turnovers. The Seahawks were dominated in that game by being out rushed 4.4ypr to 3.7ypr, out passed 6.6yps to 4.6yps and out gained overall, 6.1yppl to 4.2yppl. Houston lost qb Matt Schaub early in their game and fell behind before he came back in the game. They were out passed 6.8yps to 6.0yps and but out gained Jacksonville slightly, 4.9yppl to 4.8yppl. Seattle can’t run or throw the ball. They average just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.5yps against 6.3yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense they allow 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Houston hasn’t been able to run the ball all year, averaging just 3.4ypr against 4.2ypr but they do average 7.1yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. On defense they allow 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Houston by 7.5 points and predict about 46 points. Seattle has struggled on the road this year but they have played some pretty good teams. They did lose at SF early in the year by 13 but lost Hasslebeck in that game. The one game against a poor team, St. Louis, they won 27-17. This is a lot of points to be laying with a team that doesn’t play great defense, run the ball well, missing two of their key offensive skill players. I’ll lean towards Seattle. HOUSTON 24 SEATTLE 21
TENNESSEE -13 St Louis 41.5
The Titans five game winning streak came to an end last week at Indy as they finally met their match. They out rushed Indy 4.3ypr to 3.3ypr but were out gained in the passing game 7.3yps to 5.3yps and out gained overall, 5.6yppl to 4.9yppl. The Rams put up a good effort at Chicago but fell 17-9. They out rushed the Bears 4.5ypr to 3.2ypr but could only manage 2.8yps, while allowing Chicago 6.4yps. Overall, they were out gained 4.3yppl to 3.6yppl. The Rams have run the ball well all year long at 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr but can’t throw the ball at all, averaging just 5.0yps against 6.1yps. Overall, they average just 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense allows 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr and 6.9yps against 6.3yps for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. Tennessee rushes the ball very well at 5.3ypr against 4.2ypr and is averaging 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is about average at 5.7yppl against 5.6yppl. The Rams qualify in a league wide general situation, which is 51-22-1. Numbers favor Tennessee by 11 points and predict about 41 points. Tennessee may start Kerry Collins this week. The Rams have only won one game but they have stayed close in a fair amount of their games this year. Tennessee has been the sexy pick the last few weeks but the line may have finally caught up with them last week and this week. TENNESSEE 26 ST LOUIS 16
Washington -1 OAKLAND 37.5
Washington played a great game last week at NO but unfortunately lost the game 33-30 in OT. They out rushed the Saints, 3.5ypr to 2.5ypr, out passed them 8.7yps to 8.2yps and out gained them overall, 6.8yppl to 6.3yppl. Oakland moved the ball through the air again last week as the insertion of Bruce Gradkowski has made the Raiders a somewhat decent team on offense. They were out rushed 4.9ypr to 3.9ypr and out passed 10.8yps to 7.8yps and ultimately out gained overall 7.7yppl to 6.1yppl. While allowing 7.7yppl is not good, the fact they managed to average 6.1yppl on offense is huge progress for this team. Washington struggles to run the ball at 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr but has brought their passing game back to average the last few weeks, now averaging 6.2yps against 6.2yps for a total of 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense continues to play solid at 4.2ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.8yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. Oakland doesn’t throw the ball well at 4.6yps against 5.9yps but those numbers have gotten much better the last few weeks. They now average 4.3yppl against 5.2yppl overall on offense but again are much better than when Russell was the quarterback. The defense still struggles to defend the rush or the pass, allowing 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.3yps against 6.6yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Washington by 6.5 points and predict about 28 points. Washington has played extremely well in covering four straight games but lost the last three games. All of those games were against elite competition. Now they face the lowly Raiders, who have to be excited to be back home after a thrilling come from behind win over Pittsburgh on the road. Oakland has won two of their last three games against good competition in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. But, for both of these teams, they have been sizeable dogs in those games but that’s not the case here. Tough game to predict because Washington is the better team but has injuries and Oakland has to be more focused in this game. OAKLAND 14 WASHINGTON 13
DALLAS -3 San Diego 48.5
SD jumped out to a huge lead, 27-6, over Cleveland and then allowed some late Brown scores to lose the cover and make the final score look closer than it was, 30-23. The Chargers were out rushed again, 5.2ypr to 2.8ypr but out passed Cleveland 14.3yps to 5.5yps and out gained the Browns overall, 8.1yppl to 5.4yppl. Dallas jumped out to a 10-0 lead on the Giants but couldn’t hold on in their 31-24 loss. They managed just 45 yards rushing at 2.0ypr and allowed 100 yards to the Giants at 4.3ypr. They were also out passed 9.1yps to 6.6yps. Overall they were out gained 6.9yppl to 5.3yppl. Those numbers are slightly skewed because Dallas threw the ball 31 times more than the Giants. SD doesn’t run the ball well at 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr but they can wing it at 8.1yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.4yppl overall. They allow 5.1yppl against 5.0yppl on defense. The Cowboys continue to run the ball well at 5.0ypr against 4.3ypr, throw the ball well at 7.2yps against 6.2yps and average 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl overall on offense. On defense they are average allowing 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 694-557-43. Numbers favor Dallas by 3.5 points and predict about 49 points. Dallas has the better balanced offense with both defenses about even. I like Dallas with slight value, solid situation, laying a short number at home. DALLAS 33 SAN DIEGO 24
NY GIANTS PK Philadelphia 44
Philly destroyed a decimated Atlanta team last week 34-7. They out rushed Atlanta 4.0ypr to 2.8ypr, out passed them 9.6yps to 5.1yps and out gained them overall, 6.9yppl to 4.3yppl. The Giants fell behind the Cowboys, 10-0 but regrouped and won 31-24. They out rushed Dallas 4.3ypr to 2.0ypr, out passed them 9.1yps to 6.6yps and out gained them overall, 6.9yppl to 5.3yppl. Considering Dallas threw the ball 31 times more, those overall numbers could have been even worse. Philly continues to sport very good numbers on offense as they average 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.7yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense continues to play stout, allowing just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.3yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl. The Giants are just average running the ball this year but are averaging 7.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl on offense. They allow just 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl overall on defense. Philly qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 467-304-21. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em before accounting for the situation and predict about 54 points. Philly brings the better offense, defense and a solid situation in their favor. PHILADELPHIA 30 NY GIANTS 24
BRANDON LANG
40 DIME - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - (Buy down a 1/2 to -6.5, or 7 if number goes to -7 or -7.5) - This is a bad matchup all the way around for the Denver Broncos.
First and foremost, just like last week when the public bet the Titans and the Colts went off a under a touchdown, and Peyton figured out a way to cover that number pushing the Colts record not only to a perfect 12-0, but a fantastic 9-3 ATS.
Only 3 pointspread blemishes were a 4-point win at home over the Niners laying 13, a 3 point win over the Texans laying 7 1/2 and the 1 point win over the Patriots laying 2.
Other than that, Indy has covered every game this year and it is very rare when you are as good as they are you are ever laying anything but double digits at home.
Today, just like last week you are getting value with the Colts, under a touchdown and it's value I can't pass up.
The million dollar question isn't what Peyton is going to do to the Broncos as we all know as good as he is playing he will get his. No folks, the question today is can Kyle Orton played good enough football to keep this a single digit game.
My dollar says he can't.
Indy is trying to become the only team in NFL history to win 22 regular season games in a row and also with a win today it's homefield all the way through the AFC playoffs.
The Broncos have made some noise the last 2 weeks crushing the Giants at home on Thanksgiving night, and then last week hammering a horrible Chiefs team.
Now all of a sudden people think they are back when prior to those 2 wins they had lost 4 games in a row by an average margin of 20 points.
Lastly, the Colts are very familiar with a lot of the Broncos scheme as they saw them when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator at New England. Advantage Colts.
Just like last week the Colts will execute their offense to perfection and when the 60 minutes are up, they will have won this game by double digits and covered the number right along with it.
Indy goes to 13-0 for the year, and 10-3 ATS right along with it.
20 DIME - CINCINNATI BENGALS (Buy up a 1/2 to +7, only if line is at +6.5) - The underdog in every Bengals game this year has covered the number. I'm not about to buck that trend now.
Adding to the woes of the Vikings in this game is the loss of middle linebacker E.J. Henderson. You have no idea how much that hurts the Vikings today.
When he went out last week against the Cardinals, you saw just how easily Arizona moved the football. That doesn't bode well for them today against this very balanced Bengals attack.
I'm talking about a Cincinnati team that won at Pittsburgh, won at Green Bay, and won at Baltimore.
You can bet on the fact the Bengals will not go quietly. They will battle because that is the makeup of this football team.
Brett Favre looked tired last week, and facing a Bengals defense that has allowed just 11 points a game the last 6 weeks and their defensive strength is the secondary.
Hard to blow a team out when they take away your passing game.
Only one QB has thrown for over 300 yards this year, and that was Matt Schaub and over their last 5 games this secondary has allowed less than 200 yards in every game.
They held the Ravens to 100 yards, Steelers to 146, Raiders to 186, Browns to 111 and the Lions to 165.
Brett may get his, but he won't get the big yards that will be needed to get a Vikings blowout, and I fully expect this game to go down to the wire.
And the river card for me is the fact since becoming head coach of the Minnesota Vikings Brad Childress is 0-7 ATS in the month of December at home.
Look for the underdog to remain perfect in every Bengals game this year.
10 DIME - NY JETS - (Buy down a 1/2 to -3 if line is at -3.5) - Simply put, rookie QB against #1 defense in the NFL.
A rookie QB who comes off 5 INT's on the road last week versus a Carolina defense that is no where near as good as the one he will see today.
This couldn't be a better matchup for Rex Ryan's blitz package against Josh Freeman, and if he thinks he saw some coverages last week, wait until he gets a load of this Jets defense.
Further compounding the Bucs problems in this game today is they are the 2nd worst run defense in the NFL facing the #1 rush offense. I've always maintained if you can't stop the run in the NFL you are not going to win football games.
The Jets were laying this same kind of number last week versus the Buffalo Bills and won by 6 in a game that wasn't as close as the score would lead you to believe. Their defense completely shut down the Bills to the tune of 194 yards total offense.
New York has playoff hopes. Every game is do or die. I like that in a football team.
As for Tampa Bay, it's living on a prayer. Living on the reality of losing and they have done a lot of that this year.
They have won win for the year, at home versus Green Bay and I feel Aaron Rogers had more to do with that than anything the Bucs did. He was sacked 6 times cause he held the ball to long and threw 3 INT's.
You are not going to get that from the Jets today who will run the ball and run the ball and run the ball some more.
Last week versus the Bills they ran 43 times for 249 yards and that was against the worst run defense in the NFL. Save to assume Kelly Clemens will be the beneficiary of over 200 yards rushing again today making him a play action QB all day long.
I am laying this number in what I feel will be a double digit win for the J-E-T-S....Jets, Jets, Jets.
FREE SELECTION - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Inside Corner
3 Units: New York Jets -3
3 Units: Green Bay Packers -3
2 Units: Eagles / Giants OVER 44.5
2 Units: Falcons / Saints UNDER 50
2 Units: Baltimore -13.5
2 Units: San Diego Chargers +3
Kelso
25 units Texans -7
25 units Colts -6.5
25 units Bills -2
25 units Jets +4
20 units Parlay all four 25 unit plays
10 units Chargers +3.5
5 units Bengals +6.5
4 units Raiders +1
3 units Dolphins/Jags under 43
igz1 sports
3* Cincinnati / Minnesota Under 43.5
JOE GAFFNEY
Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Under 44
this play is on our big ticket so we need it bad. we go the other way of the public and take under in a game that will be played tight . i do not see den putting up alot of pts on the road. they will try to keep mannning off the field short passes dumps and running it.den defense decent as well as 12-0 indy.
New York Jets vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
this ones on the big tkt so we need it bad. the jets should not lay any pts to anybody that theory won me the hilton 2yrs ago and still stands today tb was killed by turnovers last week.i live in ny i know the jets and they will fall.
Washington Redskins vs. Oakland Raiders
Pick: Washington Redskins -1
we are going against the grain here with travel across country but i think wash will win they should have won last 4 and if they have any pride left they will beat okl./ wash just the better team line move proves it. def is the diferance and wash has it okl does not.
Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Miami Dolphins +1
jacksonville a fav to much weight for them this one is on the big tkt so we need it bad mia is simply the better team and staying in flo to play helps us too. mia fresh off upset of ne and will keep it rolling against jags def thet is a sive.
BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wiseguy Bengals/Vikings Division-Leader's GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati +7
If the odds makers would give the Bengals the respect they deserved, this line would be Minnesota -3. Instead, they haven't bought into this team just yet while they have Minnesota overvalued. The Bengals have proven they can play with anyone in the league, with a new-found running game and one of the best defenses in the game. Cincinnati allows just 15.6 points/game and 293 yards/game defensively. The Bengals are 4-1 on the road this season, and a PERFECT 6-0 ATS as an underdog this year. Any time you can catch this team in the role of the dog, especially catching a touchdown, it's more than worth it. The Bengals are fighting for a 1st-round Bye in the AFC, so there will be no letting up for this team. The Vikings are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite since 1992. After getting dominated last week by Arizona, it's clear that the Vikings aren't as well off as everyone assumes. Plus, they lost one of their best players in LB E.J. Henderson for the season with a broken leg he suffered in the loss to the Cardinals. Any way you put it, the Vikings will not be winning this game by more than a touchdown against an underrated Cincinnati team Sunday. Take the Bengals and the points.
5* Wiseguy NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Seahawks/Texans OVER 44.5
Two excellent passing teams will be airing it out Sunday in a shootout down in Houston. The Seahawks are throwing for 224 yards/game while completing 62.3% of their passes and they have been playing part of this season without Matt Hasselbeck under center. But he is healthy, and Seattle has put up 20 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. Defensively, they have been awful on the road by giving up 29.7 points/game and allowing 264 passing yards/game while allowing opposing QB's to complete 70.6% of their passes. That bodes well for Houston Sunday, who are averaging 279 passing yards/game this season while completing 67.1% of their pass attempts. Matt Schaub and this Texans' offense should put up a big number on the Seahawks Sunday, while Seattle hangs right with them on the scoreboard. Seattle is 17-6 OVER (+10.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992. The OVER is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. Take the OVER 44.5 points.
5* Wiseguy Eagles/Giants NBC Sunday Night BLOOD BATH on New York PK
This is the Giants' season. They trail the Cowboys and Eagles by 1 game in the NFC East, and after their win over Dallas last week, this team is back on track. After 3 straight losses to the Eagles, including an embarrassing road loss earlier this year, this one is personal for New York. They'll come together as a team Sunday and earn their biggest win of the season with revenge in mind against Philly. The Giants are 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. New York is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. This team has been solid at home, winning by an average of 7.5 points/game this season. New York is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. They are finally healthy in the secondary, and they are starting to get more pressure from their defensive line which will be key in stopping the Eagles' one-dimensional offense which relies solely on their passing game. Take the Giants and lay the points.
4* on St. Louis Rams +13.5
Tennessee has to be deflated. The Titans won 5 straight games after their 0-6 start and had a chance to get back to .500 last week, but a poor performance against division rival Indianapolis has them all but out of the playoff hunt. Now, Tennessee will have a very hard time getting up to play the 1-11 St. Louis Rams. The Rams have been very competitive in recent weeks, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and not losing once by more than 10 points. Simply put, the Titans are getting way too much respect from the odds makers here. St. Louis is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. The Titans are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Take the Rams and the points.
4* on Denver Broncos +7.5
The Denver Broncos have righted the ship after losing 4 straight following a 6-0 start. Not only have they won their last two games, but they have dominated with a 26-6 home win over the Giants and a 44-13 road win at Kansas City. Denver will give the Colts all they can handle Sunday with a balanced offense that is hitting on all cylinders, and a defense that can get pressure on Peyton Manning. Plus, the Broncos have one of the best secondary's in the league to keep the Colts' passing game in check. Denver's defense gives up just 16.8 points/game and 289 total yards/game, including 180 passing. Denver owns the #3 ranked defense in the league overall, and the #2 ranked passing defense. Their stop unit gives them a chance to pull off this upset. Offensively, the Broncos have rushed for 115 or more yards in 4 straight games to compliment a steady passing attack. The Broncos are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. Denver is playing their best football of the season right now, and are primed for an upset bid of the undefeated Colts. Take the Broncos and the points.
4* on Miami Dolphins +3
The Dolphins have a chance to get right back into the playoff race with another win Sunday. Miami just beat the Patriots last week in a huge victory, and now they take on 7-5 Jacksonville as they trail the Jaguars by 1 game entering play Sunday. The Jaguars are not nearly as good as their 7-5 record indicates, because though they are 2 games over .500, Jacksonville is actually getting outscored by 4.0 points/game this season. They have played a very easy schedule, and their offense is one of the worst in the league, averaging just 18.7 points/game. The Dolphins could have packed it in after their 0-3 start, but it just shows how mentally tough this team really is by winning 6 of their last 9 games. This team is well-coached and their players feed of of coach Sporano. Jacksonville is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. What more needs to be said? This team should not be favored Sunday against a superior team. The Dolphins are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Take Miami and the points.
4* on Atlanta Falcons +10.5
This is Atlanta's season. The Falcons will fight, scratch and claw to try and take down the undefeated Saints Sunday with their season on the line. They played the Saints tough in the first meeting, losing 27-35 as an 11-point underdog. We see no scenario playing out as to where the Falcons lose this game by more than 10 points. Atlanta is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season. New Orleans has escaped with a lot of wins this season, including last week's come-from-behind 33-30 overtime victory at Washington. If the Saints win Sunday, they will have to escape with it again because the Falcons will not go down easily. The Falcons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss. This team has been very resilient under head coach Mike Smith when coming off a loss. Take Atlanta and the points.
The Prez
GOY -Giants
Lee Kostroski
GOY Dallas -3.5
Al DeMarco
Texans
DOUBLE DRAGON
BRONCOS +7
VIKINGS -6
BEARS +3.5
REDSKINS -1
COWBOYS -3
49'ERS +3
David Banks
Kansas City +Pts
Chicago +Pts
Jacksonville Jaguars -Pts
Oakland Raiders +Pts
San Diego +Pts
New York Giants +Pts (BANKS BEST BET)
NYG/Philly Over
Cleveland Cavs -Pts
Villanova -Pts
Xavier -Pts
Donnie Black
20* Bears Over 41
Cinci +6.5
Tampa Bay Over 37
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
4* Best Bet -New England
4* Best Bet -N.Y. Jets
3* -Oakland
2* -Baltimore
2* -San Diego