ATS LOCK CLUB
6 Units GB
6 Units Jets
5 Units SD
5 Units Minn
RAS
Stanford -17
N. AZ +2'
Both for 1 Unit
Great Lakes Sports
4* Denver +6.5
3* San Deigo +3.5
4* Atlanta -12.5
3* Oklahoma City +3.5
4* Miami Ohio +2.5
3* Depaul -6.5
3* xavier -3.5
MARC LAWRENCE
GOY - BRONCOS
LEE STERLING
10* - Chicago
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
3* CINCINNATI BENGALS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS.
The Vikings return home after the "Debacle in the Desert", getting embarrassed on national TV by the Cardinals. It's not a good time to be playing them. I'm not impressed with the overachieving Bengals (9-3). A close look at this schedule finds a lot of easy games, especially now that we've seen the demise of the Steelers and Ravens the last month. The Bengals do have a road win at Green Bay in Week 2, though they allowed 24 points, but they have a string of close, low scoring games they won, and got bombed by one of the few multi-dimensional offenses they faced, a 28-17 loss to Houston. And Minnesota has so many more weapons on both sides of the ball than the Texans. Cincy loves to run the football to take the pressure off Carson Palmer, but they won't be able to run against this awesome Minnesota front line. The Vikings (10-2) can secure a spot in the playoffs with a victory on Sunday, and a win coupled with a Green Bay loss would hand Minnesota its second straight NFC North title. But first the Vikings will need to put last Sunday night's 30-17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals behind them. The Vikings had a four-game winning streak broken, losing for the first time a 27-17 setback to Pittsburgh on October 25. That was also the only other time this season that Minnesota failed to score at least 27 points before this past Sunday, with the team having outscored its opposition 98-29 over the previous three games. Minnesota has won all six of its home games this year and 12 of its last 13 at the Metrodome. The home team has so much speed on offense and will win by double digits. Play the Vikings.
Underground Sports Connection
300* SD Chargers +3-
Northcoast
5* GOY Colts
3* Saints
3* Texans
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Clippers +6
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the home dog:
The Spurs have struggled offensively on the road, scoring 95 points or fewer four times and I expect them to have a "letdown" tonight, coming off a convincing and satisfying victory over Charlotte on Friday.
Keep in mind the Spurs are just 1-4-1 ATS their last six overall and just 1-7 ATS their last eight on the road.
On the other side of the court: Los Angeles continues its six-game homestand after splitting the first four. The Clippers, averaging 89.3 points over those four contests, lost 97-86 to Orlando on Tuesday; I expect a concerted effort on both sides of the ball tonight though as they look to rebound from that sub-par performance.
Despite the defeat on Tuesday, Los Angeles still has won five of eight. During that stretch, the Clippers are yielding 90.9 points and forcing 16.4 turnovers per game.
Also remember, the Clippers always play tough in front of the hometown crowd, especially lately; LA is 4-2 SU its last six in friendly confines.
Bottom line: LA has lost 12 in a row to San Antonio, so will also have the "revenge" factor on its side; look for the CLIPPERS to move to 3-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record and for the Spurs to fall to 1-3 ATS after allowing 85 points or less in their previous contest.
7* CLIPPERS.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
New Orleans Saints -10
We were on the Saints when they crushed the Patriots on MNF, and then went against them last week as the Red Skins almost pulled off the outright upset, but easily covered with the large spread they were being afforded.
This week however, I expect Drew Brees and company, to "bounce back" from that near disastrous performance with a big effort inside the Georgia Dome as I expect this team to continue to play with a chip on its shoulder and push down the stretch, determined to end its season strong, and garner more offensive records and the accolades they feel they deserve.
New Orleans clinched the division title and tied a franchise record for wins in a season with a wild comeback last week, beating Washington 33-30 in overtime; remember, the Saints also rallied from a 21-point deficit to beat Miami 46-34 in Week 7.
The Saints overcame four turnovers to beat Atlanta 35-27 on Nov. 2. Brees was intercepted and lost a fumble, but passed for 308 yards and two scores; expect Brees to be conscience of that fact and to protect the ball more this time around from an opportunistic Falcons defense.
New Orleans is very tough on the road; obviously other than being perfect, it's also 5-2 ATS its last seven away from friendly confines. The Saints always play the Falcons tough as well and also have history on their side; New Orleans is 6-1 SU its last seven vs. Atlanta.
On the other side of the field: Without Michael Turner, Atlanta was held to 61 yards rushing in a 34-7 loss to Philadelphia last Sunday. Turner was one of six offensive starters, including QB Matt Ryan, to miss time in that matchup as the Falcons lost for the third time in four games.
Ryan, injured in a 20-17 win over Tampa Bay on Nov. 29, sat out a siˆxth consecutive practice Friday and is listed as questionable on the team’s injury report.
To make matters worse for the Falcons; starting right cornerback Chris Houston, arguably the best corner on the 29th-ranked pass defense, has been ruled out of Sunday's game with a hamstring injury.
Remember, Atlanta is just 2-5 SU its last seven and always struggles against New Orleans; 2-4 ATS its last six in the Georgia Dome vs. the Saints.
Bottom line: Look for the Saints offense to get out to a quick start and then watch the defense shut the door down the stretch; expect NEW ORLEANS to improve to 9-4 ATS this season when playing the roll of favorite and for Atlanta to fall to 1-2 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent!
10*
TONY WESTON
30 Dime Chargers
10 Dime Saints
CHARGERS (ML) - Even though the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints are undefeated, the San Diego Chargers may very well be the hottest team in the NFL.
San Diego strolls into Dallas riding a 7-game SU winning streak and is beating opponents by an average of 16 points per game in that stretch. On the road during that streak the Chargers have gone a perfect 4-0 SU and are 3-1 ATS. In those four games, San Diego has beaten its opponents, on average, by 16.7 points per game.
Today, facing a Cowboys team that’s installed as about a 3 1/2 point favorite, not only will the Chargers cover, but they will win outright and increase this winning streak to 8 games.
SAINTS - After so much promise last season, things have quickly fallen apart for the Atlanta Falcons this season.
The team is just 6-6 SU and is 7-5 ATS. However, the team started the season 4-1 SU and ATS and has gone just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS over its last 7 games.
Now they get to battle the undefeated Saints, who are riding a perfect 12-0 SU mark and are chasing that undefeated season.
New Orleans comes into this game 4-2 ATS on the road this year where it is beating its opponents by more than 16 points per game (36.7-20.5).
After a tough 33-30 overtime victory over the Redskins last week, the Saints get to battle a Falcons team that was destroyed 34-7 against the Eagles last week.
The Falcons have gone just 1-3 SU and ATS their last 4 games and will drop another one today.
Dominic Fazzini
30 Dime - TEXANS
Houston has really had a tough time of it lately, losing its last four games (1-3 ATS) to fall out of the playoff picture.
But those losses were by three, three, eight and five points, respectively, against tough division opponents in Indianapolis (twice), Tennessee and Jacksonville. While so many close losses had to have hurt, the Texans are going to want to unleash some pain on someone else today, and Seattle looks like a good team to do it against.
While the Seahawks have won their last two games, the victories came against a horrible St. Louis team and at home against a struggling San Francisco squad. And the 49ers actually outgained Seattle 356 to 292 in last week's game.
The Seahawks have been awful on the road this year, going 1-5 straight up and ATS. And outside of the victory over the Rams, they have lost by margins of 13, 17, 21, 11 and 26 points away from Seattle.
With quarterback Matt Schaub and star receiver Andre Johnson leading the way, the Texans possess the NFL's fourth-best passing attack with 278.9 ypg. And defending the pass is not exactly the Seahawks' strong suit, as they allow 243.5 ypg through the air to rank 26th in the league.
Houston has been a strong second-half team in its existence and is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games in December. And Seattle is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog, 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 0-7 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog. Load up and take the Texans to win in a rout today.
10 Dime - Bengals
Cincinnati is getting absolutely no respect this season despite a 9-3 record, but this team is for real.
And while the Bengals possess some real weapons on offense with Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco, it is the defense that have really sparked the team this year. Cincinnati is allowing a league-low 15.6 ppg this season, including an average of 11.5 over its past six games.
Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson are going to provide a tough test for the Bengals today, but if rookie receiver Percy Harvin, who has been suffering from severe migraines this week, has to miss the game or is limited, that could really hurt Minnesota's offense.
The Vikings are without standout linebacker E.J. Henderson, who was placed on injured reserve after breaking his left thigh bone last weekend, and that should help open some things up for Benson and the Bengals' running game today.
Cincinnati is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog, including 6-0 this year, and the underdog has covered the spread in every one of the Bengals' games this season.
Minnesota is 2-7 ATS against teams with a winning record, while Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. I like the Bengals to cover the points today, and they might even win this game outright.
Chris Jordan
300♦ PACKERS - If the Bears' already lethargic running game could only manage 3.2 yards per rush against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league - last week against St. Louis - what do you think is going to take place when arch-rival Green Bay arrives at Soldier Field with the league's No. 1 overall defense? I've seen all the headlines ... "mission statement" and "must-win" and "arch-rivalry" ... none of it matters when the Packers tune up that defense. And anyway, if all those key phrases for this clash are true, couldn't it go Green Bay's way as well?
I realize Chicago coach Lovie Smith has an amazing record against the Packers, as he's never been swept by the Packers alternating split series' or sweeping them the past five seasons. And since the Bears lost the season opener, one might believe he'll have his troops ready for the Pack in this meeting.
I doubt it. The Bears could barely get past the Lambs, er, the Rams, last week. Now you expect them to stop the league's fifth-best quarterback? Seeing how the Packers' then-unestablished defense picked off Jay Cutler in Week 1 of the season, can the Bears honestly think the passing game will be the answer today?
I say no all around, as the Packers have hit their stride and are riding a four-game win streak and long gone is the memory of becoming Tampa Bay's only victim this season. Meanwhile, the Bears have lost six of eight and will likely miss the playoffs for the third straight year since their Super Bowl run. They're dinged up, and that won't help either.
This one could be over by halftime.
300♦ TEXANS - Think about this wisely, the line on a mediocre football team that has lost four straight is sitting on -7 points. Strange, huh? Well, maybe not so much when you look at the fact two of those losses by the Texans came against Indianapolis, one came against a suddenly red-hot Titans team and last week at Jacksonville it was against a scrappy Jags squad.
So here come the Seahawks, who have won two straight, but those wins were against the Rams and Niners. In fact, while the Seahakws might be 3-4 in their last seven games, make note the third win was against Detroit. But the four losses came against Arizona twice, Dallas and Minnesota. And three of those four were on the road.
Thus, you take the 'Hawks on the road and put 'em up against a decent team, they're likely going to fold. Make note, the Seahawks have not won a road game outside of the division since 2007.
The Texans can still clinch their first winning season in franchise history by winning the rest of their games. And for as bad as the non-first place AFC teams have played, who knows if the playoffs are out of the question.
There's a reason this line is so big, and I'm laying it knowing the Titans still have some things to play for.
300♦ COWBOYS - Speaking of strange lines, I had to double take the Pokes-Bolts line today. I did buy the half-point down to -3, and advise you to do the same thing. But again, we have a situation in which the oddsmakers are telling you which team is going to win by making the Cowboys the favorite. There's just too much talk about "what about the Cowboys in December," and "how about the Bolts in December." I am not buying into that and will lay a field goal here.
I'm looking for an aggressive pass rush to take advantage of a bit-banged up San Diego offensive line. The Cowboys have to keep pressure on Philip Rivers all day, frustrating him enough to make bad decisions, which in turn would result in costly turnovers.
A good indicator in this one will be who wins in the first quarter. During a seven-game win streak, the Chargers have outscored their opponents 52-7 in the first quarter. Conversely, the Cowboys have given up a mere 20 points in the first, their stingiest quarter no doubt about it.
The Bolts played in Cleveland last week, and are now back on the highway for the second of back-to-back road games. In such situations, the Bolts are 5-13 this decade. This is the week they hit the wall.
Tom Stryker
GOY - Ravens
ASA
GOY - Dallas Cowboys