Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* GOM Bengals
Colts Under
Jets
Teaser - Seattle & Denver
BIG AL
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Colts and Jaguars to go 'under' the total. The Jaguars have played eight of their last 10 games 'over' the total, while Indy is on a 3-0-1 'over' run. And that's led to an inflated number here. Indeed, Indianapolis' last four games have gone 3-0-1 'over' the number mainly because it has played four high-powered offenses (New England, San Diego, Dallas, Tennessee). Against those four teams, the Colts gave up 31, 36, 38 and 28 points. But Jacksonville's offense is below average (it scores 22.7 ppg vs. teams that give up 23.2 ppg), and I project it will score below Indy's home defensive average of 21 ppg. Moreover, this game likely will determine the winner of the AFC South, as both Jacksonville and Indianapolis are in control of their own playoff destiny. And I expect a tense atmosphere at the RCA Dome, and a game in which both teams are a bit conservative at the start. Moreover, division games go 'under' the total 63.3% of the time in the last part of the NFL season (Game 11 forward) when the line is greater than 45 points. Take the 'under.'
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans to go 'under' the total. The Texans have played five of their last six games 'over' the total. The one game that went 'under?' That was three weeks ago against these same Tennessee Titans. Houston won that ballgame 20-0, and we easily cashed the 'under' 46.5 in that game. Now, the line in this game is slightly higher, notwithstanding the fact that Tennessee has averaged 12.5 ppg over its last four games (3 'unders' and 1 'over'). Houston did erupt for 489 yards of offense last week, but has gone 'under' the total 7 straight games on the road after gaining 400+ yards in its previous game. And, as I mentioned in the Colts/Jags write-up, division games tend to go over late in the season when the line is greater than 45 points. Take the 'under.'
At 1 pm, our selection is on the St Louis Rams over Kansas City. Both the Rams and Chiefs lead their respective divisions, despite less than impressive records (St Louis is 6-7; KC is 8-5). The Chiefs are a perfect 6-0 at Arrowhead this year, but a dismal 2-5 on the road, with their wins coming against Cleveland and Seattle -- both below-average clubs. St. Louis has a similar home/road dichotomy: The Rams are also 2-5 on the road, but have won 4 of 6 at home, and are currently a 1-point underdog (as of this writing). Last week, the Rams were throttled 31-13 by the Saints, but home teams are a solid 80-47 ATS in the late stages of an NFL season (Game 14 forward) if they're off a blowout loss by 16+ points, and are installed as a dog or PK. Additionally, the Rams fall into a 73-30 ATS system of mine which fades certain road teams off blowout losses late in the year. Take St. Louis.
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over Arizona. Last week, Arizona steamrolled Denver 43-13, while Carolina was blown out 31-10 by Atlanta, as a 7-point dog. And those results set up our play here, as losing teams are 40-11 ATS as a Favorite (or PK) off a loss, if they failed to cover by 8+ points, and their opponent is off a straight up win. Before erupting for those 43 points, Arizona had scored just 6 points in back-to-back games. But last week, Arizona was greatly helped by a staggering 6 Denver turnovers. However, Arizona is a poor 0-6 ATS off a game in which its turnover differential was +2 or higher. Take the Panthers minus the points.
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the NY Jets + the points over Pittsburgh. Rex Ryan's men have stumbled in December, losing 45-3 at New England, and 10-6 at home to Miami. But off those 2 losses, the Jets are primed to bounce back and cover the spread on Sunday, as underdogs of more than 3 points, off a home loss (and 2+ losses overall), are 41-11 ATS vs. non-division foes off a home win by more than 7 points (and 2+ wins overall). Take the points with New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss our big 29-0 ATS NFL Non-Division Underdog of the Year on Sunday, as we look to remain Red-Hot. And, looking ahead, we have our 5* College Football Game of the Year coming up shortly. We're 43-16 since December 2001, as documented by The Sports Monitor, on our 5* College Football Plays, so don't miss our #1 selection this season (out of a 100% Perfect System).
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Atlanta, as Seattle falls into several of my best systems -- with records of 29-0, 69-37, 30-7 and 43-24 since 1980. Last week, the Seahawks were blown out 40-21 by the 49ers, while Atlanta won its seventh straight game, a 31-10 win at Carolina. This will be Atlanta's third straight road game -- never a good situation for an NFL team -- and teams playing their 3rd straight game on the road are a dismal 24-43 ATS since 1980 off a straight-up win. Even worse: .290 (or better) NFL teams are 7-36 ATS on the road off a win by 12 or more points, if they scored at least 28 points in that victory, and are now matched up against a .180 (or better) foe off a loss in which it gave up 38+ points. And, if our road team (here, Atlanta) is NOT an underdog of more than 3 points, then our 36-7 system zooms to a perfect 29-0! Take Seattle + the points.
Dr Bob
3* Baltimore -1
2* Seattle +6
Sixth Sense
BEST BETS
YTD 47-39-1 +11.40% (46-42-1 5.10% with Sports Monitor)
3% HOUSTON +1.5
3% JACKSONVILLE +5
3% CLEVELAND +1.5
3% NY GIANTS -2.5 -120 No higher than -3
3% DETROIT +5.5
3% ATLANTA/SEATTLE OVER 45
ST LOUIS PK Kansas City 43.5
KC struggled badly last week with out Matt Cassel as they were blown out 31-0 at SD. They managed to throw for only 20 yards at 0.8yps while allowing SD to throw for 8.4yps. They rushed for only 2.8ypr to 4.8ypr for SD. Overall, they were out gained 6.2yppl to 1.6yppl. KC actually won the turnover battle 2-0 but were so horrible in every other facet, it didn’t matter. St. Louis was really never in the game at NO in their 31-13 loss but played well from the line of scrimmage. They out rushed NO 5.7ypr to 4.6ypr and out passed them 5.5yps to 5.2yps. Overall, they out gained NO 5.5yppl to 4.9yppl.
Kansas City averages 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.1yps against 6.4yps and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. St Louis averages 3.8ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.4yps against 6.3yps and 4.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl.
Kansas City qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 726-584-44 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor KC by three points and predict about 38 points. Cassel looks like he will play in this game but it’s hard to recommend KC based on what they have shown on the road this year. KC has lost at Indy, Houston, Denver, Oakland and SD, while winning by just two points at Cleveland and blowing out Seattle. St. Louis has been competitive at home this year. From the line of scrimmage, KC is the better team so I will lean that way. KANSAS CITY 21 ST LOUIS 17
TENNESSEE -1.5 Houston 47
Houston started out slowly at home against Baltimore and then dominated the second half only to lose in OT on an interception return for a touchdown, 34-28. Houston out rushed Baltimore 5.0ypr to 2.6ypr, out passed them 5.9yps to 5.0yps and out gained them overall, 5.7yppl to 4.1yppl. Two turnovers and a kick off return for a touchdown did them in. The final numbers are skewed a bit because Houston threw the ball 26 more times than Baltimore. Tennessee started out slow and then make a comeback that fell short 30-28 at home against Indianapolis. Tennessee out rushed Indy 4.8ypr to 2.7ypr but were out passed 8.7yps to 6.3yps. Overall, Indy out gained Tennessee 5.9yppl to 5.7yppl.
Houston averages 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.7yps against 6.1yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.8ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.4yps against 6.5yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl. Tennessee averages 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.1yps against 6.4yps and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.0yps against 6.6yps and 5.2yppl against 5.6yppl.
Tennessee qualifies in a negative situation based on their poor defensive play last week, which is 81-37-2. Numbers favor Tennessee by 4.5 points before accounting for the situation and predict about 45 points. There is a big drop off with Kerry Collins at quarterback. Collins is just 1-4 SU in games he has started this year. Houston seems to find ways to lose games so there is a risk in taking them and the value before the situation favors Tennessee. But, Houston’s problems on defense are more pass related, which is not the strength of Tennessee. Their strength is running the ball and Houston has been good in that area this year. I like Houston and their ability to move the ball along with the strong side of their defense matches up well with Tennessee’s strength of their offense. HOUSTON 27 TENNESSEE 21
INDIANAPOLIS -5 Jacksonville 48.5
Jacksonville scored late to defeat Oakland 38-31. They rushed for 234 yards at 6.9ypr but allowed Oakland to rush for 153 yards at 6.1ypr. Oakland out passed Jacksonville 9.0yps to 6.3yps. Overall, Oakland out gained Jacksonville 7.8yppl to 6.6yppl, somewhat due to throwing the ball 12 more times. A long pass play to McFadden also aided their pass numbers some. Indy held off Tennessee to win 30-28 at Tennessee on Thursday evening. As usual, Indy was out rushed in the game 4.8ypr to 2.7ypr. They did out pass Tennessee 8.7yps to 6.3yps. Overall, they out gained Tennessee 5.9yppl to 5.7yppl.
Jacksonville averages 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.8yps against 6.5yps and 6.3yppl against 5.6yppl. Indianapolis averages 3.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.8yps against 6.5yps and 5.6yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.0yps against 6.6yps and 5.5yppl against 5.7yppl.
Jacksonville qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 126-55-8 and 293-199-22. Numbers favor Indianapolis by 8.5 points before accounting for the situations and predict about 48 points. Indy will get a little healthier this week but still is suffering from missing bodies. Since the injuries started, Indy has won only one game by more than six points. They will score points as they have scored 23 or more in seven of those eight games but they will also give up points as well. They have allowed 24 or more in six of those eight games and Jacksonville can score points with their running game and David Garrard playing extremely well at the quarterback position. Jacksonville hasn’t lost by more than seven points (just one time) here in Indy the last six years with two SU victories as well. JACKSONVILLE 28 INDIANAPOLIS 27
CAROLINA -2.5 Arizona 37.5
Arizona rolled over hapless Denver 43-13. They out rushed Denver 6.2ypr to 4.3ypr, out passed them 3.8yps to 3.7yps and out gained them overall, 5.0yppl to 3.9yppl. Denver turned the ball over six times to just once for Arizona. Carolina lost again, this time at home to Atlanta, 31-10. They did rush for 212 yards at 7.6ypr to just 3.5ypr for Atlanta. But, they were out passed 5.4yps to 2.5yps. Overall, they out gained Atlanta, 5.0yppl to 4.5yppl.
Arizona averages 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.8yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. Carolina averages 4.3ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.4yps against 6.1yps and 4.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Carolina by 1.5 points and predict about 43 points. Not interested in getting involved with two horrible teams. I will lean with Carolina only because they qualify in a decent contrary situation although they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. CAROLINA 23 ARIZONA 20
CINCINNATI -1.5 Cleveland 40
Cleveland struggled at Buffalo in their 13-6 loss. They were out rushed 4.6ypr to 4.2ypr, out passed 5.2yps to 3.9yps and out gained overall, 4.8yppl to 4.1yppl. Cincinnati jumped out to a 7-0 lead at Pittsburgh but then gave up the games next 23 points to lose 23-7, including two interceptions returned for touchdowns. They were out rushed 4.6ypr to 2.4ypr, out passed 6.2yps to 4.5yps and out gained overall, 5.5yppl to 3.9yppl.
Cleveland averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Cincinnati averages 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.5yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl.
Cleveland qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 126-55-8 and 489-314-22. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 43 points. Cleveland has the better offense and defense in this game and they get Colt McCoy back this week. Cincinnati has been horrible on defense this year and they lost another starter this week. The Bengal’s have allowed at least 22 points in 10 straight games, while Cleveland has played decent defense this year, allowing more than 24 points in only two games this year. Have to believe Cleveland can score in the 20’s and if so, it will be tough for Cincinnati to cover this number. Cleveland just won in Miami and took Jacksonville to the wire in a four point loss a few weeks ago. Those teams are much better than Cincinnati. Better running game and better defense getting points along with solid situations and value in their favor. CLEVELAND 24 CINCINNATI 16
MIAMI -5 Buffalo 40
Buffalo won at home against Cleveland, 13-6. They out rushed Cleveland 4.6ypr to 4.2ypr, including 192 yards rushing. They out passed the Browns, 5.2yps to 3.9yps and out gained them overall, 4.8yppl to 4.1yppl. Miami wasn’t pretty but left NY with a 10-6 victory. They out rushed the Jets 3.2ypr to 2.8ypr but were out passed 3.9yps to 1.3yps. Overall, they were out gained 3.5yppl to 2.3yppl. The defense played well but the offense couldn’t move the ball. The overall numbers are a little skewed because the Jets threw the ball 26 more times.
Buffalo averages 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.3yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl. Miami averages 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.1yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game although Miami almost qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 187-100-13. Numbers favor Miami by seven points and predict about 42 points. Miami has won here the last two years over Buffalo but always dangerous taking a Miami team that is just 1-5 SU at home this year. Buffalo has been competitive in their last eight games losing by three or less in seven of those eight games, while winning three of those games. I will lean Miami’s way because of the line value but it’s a weak lean at best. MIAMI 24 BUFFALO 17
NY GIANTS -2.5 Philadelphia 46
Philly escaped Dallas with a big win, 30-27. They out rushed Dallas 6.3ypr to 4.6ypr, out passed them 9.2yps to 6.6yps and out gained them overall, 7.8yppl to 5.8yppl. The Giants weren’t great but they were good enough, considering the circumstances, to defeat the Vikings 21-3. They rushed for 213 yards at 7.6ypr to just 2.8ypr. They out passed the Vikings 4.8yps to 2.6yps and overall, out gained the Vikings 6.0yppl to 2.7yppl.
Philadelphia averages 5.3ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 6.4yps and 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. New York averages 4.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.8yps against 6.6yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.2yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 5.4yppl.
The Giants qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 160-91-16 as long as they are favored by four or less points. If this line would go higher than three points, Philadelphia would actually qualify in a rushing situation, which is 156-82-8. Numbers favor the Giants by five points and predict about 51 points. The Giants played Philly tough in their first game but five turnovers did them in. They had the cover late in that game as they faced a fourth and inches for Philly at the 50 yard line with about four minutes left, holding a lead. If they allow Philly to get the first down, they probably end up kicking a game winning field goal but not covering. Instead, they allow Shady McCoy to rumble 50 yards for a touchdown and a game covering score. Steve Smith is out for the year and that will hurt but the Giants are getting a little healthier at other positions. Meanwhile, the Eagles probably get Asante Samuel back this week but lost two other contributors on defense. I like the Giants with their tough defensive line to contain Vick again this week and get the cover. They’ll have to score to do so as Philly has scored at least 26 points in each game Vick has started and finished. NY GIANTS 35 PHILADELPHIA 26
DALLAS -6 Washington 46
Washington managed to score with nine seconds left and then blow the extra point snap to lose at home to TB, 17-16. They out rushed TB 6.7ypr to 4.0ypr, managing to gain 188 yards rushing. They were out passed 10.1yps to 5.7yps. Overall, they were out gained 7.0yppl to 6.1yppl. The Cowboys lost at home to Philly, 30-27. They were out rushed 6.3ypr to 4.6ypr, including allowing Philly to rush for 171 yards. Philly out passed Dallas 9.2yps to 6.6yps. Overall, Dallas was out gained 7.8yppl to 5.8yppl.
Washington averages 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.1yps against 6.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.8yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. Dallas averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.2yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.6yppl.
Dallas qualifies in a negative situation based on their poor defensive play last week, which is 81-37-2 and plays against them here. Washington qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 293-199-22. Numbers favor Dallas by 5.5 points and predict about 50 points. The Redskins qualify in a couple of nice situations but they are banged up and it’s hard to take them in their current form. They will also play this game with Rex Grossman starting at quarterback, replacing Donovan McNabb. Dallas has scored at least 27 points in every game Jason Garrett has been head coach and knowing Washington hasn’t topped 19 points in their last four games makes it hard to back the Redskins. I’ll side their way because of the situations but can’t pull the trigger. DALLAS 27 WASHINGTON 23
TAMPA BAY -5.5 Detroit 43.5
Detroit snapped a 19 game losing streak to the rest of the NFC North with their 7-3 victory over GB. The Lions managed to rush for 190 yards at 4.6ypr to just 3.3ypr for GB. They were out passed by GB 4.7yps to 4.0yps as GB lost Aaron Rodgers to a concussion near the end of the first half. For the game, Detroit out gained GB 4.4ypr to 4.2ypr. TB escaped Washington with a 17-16 victory after the Redskins botched the extra point snap to tie the game at the end. The Bucs were out rushed 6.7ypr to 4.0ypr, including allowing 188 yards rushing to Washington. They out passed Washington 10.1yps to 5.7yps and out gained the Skins 7.0yppl to 6.1yppl.
Detroit averages 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.4yps against 6.4yps and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. Tampa Bay averages 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.1yps against 5.8yps and 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl.
Detroit qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 293-199-22. Numbers favor TB by 2.5 points and predict about 46 points. TB is 8-5 this year but their most dominating wins have come against Carolina twice and SF. While Detroit isn’t anything special, they are coming off a big win over GB and they been competitive against the non-elite teams, going 2-1 SU, not counting Dallas as a non-elite team because they are a different team with Garrett as their head coach. TB has suffered some key injuries on defense that last few weeks and this would appear to be the right time for Detroit to spring an upset as they look to break their road losing streak. DETROIT 24 TAMPA BAY 21
BALTIMORE -1.5 New Orleans 43.5
NO was out gained in the stats but won easily at home over the Rams, 31-13. They were out rushed 5.7ypr to 4.6ypr, out passed 5.5yps to 5.2yps and out gained overall, 5.5yppl to 4.9yppl. The Ravens jumped out to a 21-0 lead and used a kick off return at the beginning of the second half to lead 28-7 before Houston came storming back to force OT. Baltimore won 34-28 with an interception return for a touchdown to seal the game. They were out rushed 5.0ypr to 2.6ypr, out passed 5.9yps to 5.0yps and out gained overall, 5.7yppl to 4.1yppl. The overall numbers are skewed somewhat because Houston threw the ball 26 more times.
New Orleans averages 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.8yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 5.8yps and 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl. Baltimore averages 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.4yps against 6.3yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Baltimore by two points and predict about 43 points. The number on this game is low, which keeps me off of NO but Baltimore is overrated in my opinion and as I said last week, they have not defeated a good team this year by more than three points. The Saints haven’t played a tough schedule but they can move the ball against a slightly better than average defense in Baltimore. If the Saints can move the ball, it will make it tough for Baltimore to keep pace and Joe Flacco is likely to make mistakes when pressed to lead his team to victory. NEW ORLEANS 23 BALTIMORE 21
Atlanta -6 SEATTLE 45
Atlanta rolled over Carolina easily 31-10. They did allow 212 yards rushing and were out rushed 7.6ypr to 3.5ypr. They did out pass Carolina 5.4yps to 2.5yps. Overall, they were out gained 5.0yppl to 4.5yppl. Seattle was blown out at SF 40-21, including turning the ball over six times. They out rushed SF 3.8ypr to 3.5ypr but were out passed 8.3yps to 6.4yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.0yppl to 5.6yppl but threw the ball 14 more times to skew those overall numbers somewhat.
Atlanta averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.1yps against 6.0yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. Seattle averages 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.0yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Atlanta by just 5.5 points and predict about 49 points. Seattle has lost every game this year by at least 14 points so when they aren’t winning, they are failing to be competitive. Seattle blew out SF to begin the year and defeated SD because of special teams but over the last eight games they have defeated Arizona twice and Carolina once. They were behind Carolina by 14 points and that is the only time Carolina has led a team by more than seven points this year. Seattle has allowed 40 or more points three times and at least 33 points in those games other than Carolina and Arizona over their last eight games. Meanwhile, Atlanta can score points and has scored 31, 28 and 34 points in their last three road games against similar competition. Seattle gets back Mike Williams this week and that bodes well for their passing offense, which has been decent in the later part of the season. Seattle will give up their share of points but should be able to score points against a sub par Atlanta defense. This game has an excellent chance to go over the total and I will lean towards Atlanta but don’t like laying points on the road with a bad defense. ATLANTA 34 SEATTLE 27
PITTSBURGH -5.5 NY Jets 35.5
The Jets suffered a bad loss at home to Miami, 10-6. The Jets defense played well, allowing just 3.2ypr and 1.3yps but were horrible moving the ball themselves, as they averaged just 2.8ypr and 3.8yps. Overall, they out gained Miami 3.5yppl to 2.3yppl. The Steelers used two interception returns for touchdowns to defeat Cincinnati 23-7. They out rushed Cincinnati 4.6ypr to 2.4ypr, out passed them 6.2yps to 4.5yps and out gained them overall, 5.5yppl to 3.9yppl. They also had a +3 in turnover margin.
New York averages 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.7yps against 6.3yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.4ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.7yps against 6.3yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl. Pittsburgh averages 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 2.9ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 6.5 points and predict about 34 points. Steelers may be without Troy Polamalu this week. Jets are struggling but getting a bunch of points is much different than laying a bunch of points. They are still a good team that can play defense. Knowing their only losses by more than four points are to NE and GB, they stand a chance to stay within the number in this game. Pittsburgh’s largest win over a quality team this year is six points over Atlanta in week one. PITTSBURGH 20 NY JETS 17
OAKLAND -6.5 Denver 43.5
Denver was throttled in Arizona 43-13 as they allowed 211 yards rushing and were out rushed 6.2ypr to 4.3ypr. They held first time starter John Skelton to just 3.8yps but managed just 3.7yps themselves. Overall, they were out gained 5.0yppl to 3.9yppl and turned the ball over six times. Oakland suffered a tough loss at Jacksonville, 38-31. They rushed for 153 yards at 6.1ypr but allowed Jacksonville to rush for 234 yards at 6.9ypr. They did manage to out pass Jacksonville, 9.0yps to 6.3yps and out gained Jacksonville overall, 7.8yppl to 6.6yppl.
Denver averages 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.0yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. Oakland averages 4.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.2yps against 6.3yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl.
Oakland qualifies in similar negative situations, which are 94-49-4 and 81-37-2 and play against them here. Numbers favor Oakland by eight points and predict about 54 points. Much like the Washington game, Denver qualifies in some solid situations but tough to play them knowing the value isn’t on their side and they are not playing well right now. As I stated last week, they have struggled to score points on the road this year. Other than their game at Tennessee where they scored 26 points (a key turnover aided their scoring in that game), they haven’t scored more than 17 points on the road this year. When you combine that with knowing they have allowed at least 24 points in eight of their past nine games, it makes it tough to cover this spread. The ray of hope for Denver is Oakland has allowed at least 33 points in three of their past four games. Kyle Orton may miss this start. OAKLAND 31 DENVER 27
NEW ENGLAND -12 Green Bay
GB suffered a tough defeat at Detroit 7-3 but more costly they lost Aaron Rodgers to a concussion that will probably keep him out of this game as well. GB allowed Detroit to rush for 190 yards and 4.6ypr to just 3.3ypr for GB. They did out pass Detroit 4.7yps to 4.0yps. Overall, they were out gained 4.4yppl to 4.2yppl. NE rolled over another opponent, this time Chicago, 36-7. They rushed for 124 yards at 3.5ypr to 3.4ypr for Chicago. NE out passed Chicago 8.2yps to 4.9yps. Overall, they out gained the Bears 6.1yppl to 4.4yppl, including winning the turnover battle 4-0.
Green Bay averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. New England averages 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.3yps against 5.9yps and 5.9yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor NE by three points (assuming Rodgers plays) and I would make them nine points without Rodgers. They predict about 51 points with Rodgers. It appears Matt Flynn will get the start for the Packers this week. That will make it very tough to win this game but if they are getting double digit points, the Packers defense is good enough to step up and contain the Patriots offense somewhat. Not sure their offense will be able to score enough even if they can hold NE to just 24 points. I would not look to play NE in this game just because Flynn is playing as the Packers defense is very good although they will miss Cullen ******* this week. NEW ENGLAND 24 GREEN BAY 13
Tim Trushel
AFC Dog GOY
New York Jets +6
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket Seahawks
Browns
Jets
Panthers Over
Anthony Redd
75 Dime St. Louis Rams
15 Dime 1st Half St. Louis Rams
15 Dime Indianapolis Colts
15 Dime Dallas Cowboys
15 Dime New Orleans Saints
ETHAN LAW
2% CAROLINA -3
2% SEATTLE +7
CONFIRMED MANHATTAN SYNDICATE SELECTION
$40,000 ON BUFFALO +5
Wunderdog
Redskins / Cowboys Under 45.5
The Washington Redskins had too many games last year where they just could not score a sufficient amount of points to post wins. They brought in Donovan McNabb to hopefully ignite a lethargic offense but obviously that hasn't been the answer. With the team averaging just 18.3 points per game, McNabb has been benched in favor of Rex Grossman. If you are putting Rex Grossman in for a spark, you are in REAL trouble. Long time subscribers of mine know my opinion of Grossman - he shouldn't even be in the NFL. The Skins went 11 games last year without scoring 20 and already have nine, and counting, this year. Their offensive woes in the last month show them at under 20 in each of their last four, averaging 13.8 points per game. The kicking game has gone south and cost them dearly last week. This is a team that has topped the 20 mark now just ten times in their last 40 games, or 20% of the time. If their offense doesn't improve (and why would it, under Grossman), Dallas would have to score 30 here to push this one over the total. That's something the Cowboys have done just four times in their last 22 games. The first game these two teams played finished at 13-7 and was posted with a total of 39.5. Washington is now 12-4 UNDER in their last 16 as a road dog of 3.5-10. The last four in this series have all gone UNDER averaging just 18.5 total points scored! I like the UNDER in this one.
Cleveland Browns +1
The Bengals had a lot of people on the bandwagon when the season began, many thinking this could be a Super Bowl team or at least a playoff team that could make a run. In a season of dissapointments, the Benglas are staking a claim to the biggest. They come into this one with a 10 game losing streak and a 2-11 mark on the season. This team was up by 17 at the half to Buffalo and were outscored 35-0 in the second half. Last week they gave Pittsburgh all they could handle in what was in reality their Super Bowl. They will have nothing left in the tank this week against lowly Cleveland and, when you have a bad team playing with a lack of purpose and motivation good things rarely happen. The Browns are simply a more effective offense behind Colt McCoy and the inspired legs of Peyton Hillis in the backfield. Cleveland should be able to get in the end zone vs. the Bengals. The Browns defense has really gotten strong, especially with the emergence of Joe Haden. They rank 21st against the pass, but since their bye week they rank #6! Carson Palmer has a dead arm and just can't get any zip anymore, so the Bengals offense should continue to struggle here. The Browns are 15-3 ATS on the road facing a home team with a winning record in their last 18. The Bengals simply should not be favored here after losing ten straight and going 5-21 ATS in their last 26 as a favorite (including 1-11 their last twelve). To add icing to the cake, the Bengals are 0-8 ATS the past two seasons vs. losing teams. Take Cleveland.
Browns / Bengals Under 40
The Bengals are playing low in December at 13-3 to the UNDER in their last 16 and four of the last five in this series at Cincinnati have fallen shy of the total. Eric Mangini's teams are 13-4 UNDER in the last four weeks of the regular season while Marvin Lewis is 37-26 UNDER in his career at home. The UNDER gets the call in this one.
Jaguars / Colts Under 48.5
The Colts have scored 30+ points in back-to-back games now for the first time all season. This is still a good offensive team, but even in the days where 30 points for the Colts was the norm, the large totals never seemed to live up to their billing. This is a team that played against a posted total of 49 vs. New England earlier this year, so the only reason this one is in the same area is the Colts last two games. Indy has actually been a 67% UNDER team when facing a total of more than 48 in their last 24 times as they are 16-8 to the UNDER. The Jags defense was bit leaky last week vs. the Raiders as they allowed 31 points. But, that really just drives the total artifically higher for this game. The reality is the Jags have been playing good defense overall with their previous five opponents averaging just 18.2 ppg. The Jags have only gone OVER in two of their last nine on the road when facing a team with a winning home record. The Colts are UNDER in seven of their last ten games vs. a team with a .500 or better road record. I like this one to fall short of the total.
Buffalo Bills +5.5
The Bills are a well-disguised good team. How can I call them good when their record reads 3-10? Simply because they have played well above that record and are better than they first appear. The Bills had a hiccup vs. Minnesota a couple games back where they were doused 38-14, but over an eight game stretch discounting that one, this team is right there in every game. Their other seven games show three wins and overtime losses at three top teams on the road in Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They also dropped a 3-point decision to Chicago. That is four teams that will all be playing in January and the Bills took them all to the wire. Ryan Fitzpatrick has made the offense respectable with his 21 TD passes and 85 QB rating. The Dolphins opened the season 2-0, but haven't put together consecutive wins since. The problem is they are a very unbalanced team. The defense plays superb most of the time, but the offense is a continuous struggle having scored 15 points or less in more than half their games. If the defense gives up even one TD here, covering 5.5 is going to be a chore. The Dolphins are one of the worst home favorites in the NFL as they are a horrific 6-27 ATS in their last 33 as home chalk. Under Tony Sparano, this team is 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bills, despite their vastly improved play, are still under the radar at 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight. I like Buffalo in this one.
Kansas City Chiefs +1.5
The Chiefs lost big last week at San Diego without Matt Cassel. His status is unclear at this point, but he said he is ready to go and he has practiced all week. I am assuming he makes the start. The Rams have suddenly started to wear down on defense. They are going to have a tough time stopping the KC run game which is ranked #1 in the league at 165 yards per game. The Rams have given up 100+ rushing yards to each of their last four opponents and the fifth, San Francisco, just missed at 98. The combined numbers show 121 carries 592 yards 4.9 yards a pop. Kansas City is going to run the ball down their throat in this one and the Rams seem helpless to stop it. The Chiefs have been a big bounce back team at 5-1 ATS in their last six after a loss. That's part of a larger trend that shows Kansas City at 32-17 ATs in thier last 49 road games following a loss. In their last 26 road games following a double-digit loss, the Chiefs are 20-6 ATS. The Rams offensive woes have followed them into their next game as they strive for consistency. St. Louis now 17-35-2 ATS in a game after scoring 14 or less in their last one. The Chiefs get this one.
Baltimore Ravens -1
The Saints will put their six game winning streak on the line in Baltimore this week. The Saints started a bit slow at 5-3 but have begun to have that "Super" look again. Or have they? The Saints schedule has been kind of to them all season long. Their six-game winning streak shows just a single win vs. a team over .500 and that one kicked off in New Orleans. On the season, they have beaten just three winning teams and they have just one such road win. Yes, this team is 10-3 but they have benefited from playing Minnesota, San Francisco, Carolina (twice), Arizona, Cleveland, Seattle, St. Louis and Cincinnati. This will be their toughest road opponent of the season and the Ravens have been extremely tough at home. Over their last 23 home games, the Ravens are just 15 total points away from being 23-0! The Ravens stand at 18-5 straight up and the five losses by a combined total of 15 points, with no loss larger than 4 points. The bottom line here is they are in every single game here over just about three seasons of home games. When you add up what they have done at home, the tally shows 44-21-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 66. The Saints are in a role they have struck out in here as they are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine as a dog of 3 points or less. I like the Ravens to make a statement here.
Seattle Seahawks +6
The Falcons are having a big year and at 11-2. They now control their own destiny to establish homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. They have rattled off seven straight wins despite remaining statistically below average on both sides of the ball in terms of yards per play. They are not turning the ball over, getting smart and clutch play from Matty Ice, and Michael Turner is running the ball efficiently. Defensively they are a bend, but they don't break defense and that has withheld enough to keep them winning. They rank in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed. Don't get me wrong. Atlanta is a solid team, but their stats don't indicate an 11-2 record. Seattle has struggled offensively, but the good news is that two of Hasselbeck's top two targets in Mike Williams and Ben Obumanu will be back for this one. It should help cut down on the mistakes he is forced into with having his top two recievers back in the lineup. Colin Cole was back on defense last week and it showed as the Niners ran for just 83 yards on 23 carries. Playing the team with the best record always gets the juices flowing for the home team. This is a huge game for Seattle as they are still alive for a home game in the first round of the playoffs. So, we should see a top effort here from the Seahawks. They have delivered an 8-3-2 ATS mark over their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Seattle has been victim to some bad luck lately losing the turnover battle 10-2 in their last three games. That kind of stuff tends to even out and if it does, they will perform better. I like Seattle with the points here. Important note: Remember to risk no more than 5% of your entire bankroll on any pick!
Denver Broncos +7
It has been a long time since the Raiders have had to tackle a sizeable number like this. Most look back at last week and see Denver failing miserably against a weak Arizona team and will turn to Oakland here. Last week's poor performance is always good for some line value the following week and we get it here with Denver. What gets easily forgotten is Denver's 4-point loss at Kansas City two weeks ago, their 3-point loss to St. Louis three weeks ago and their 20-point win vs. what was then a hot Chiefs team. I think Denver comes into this one with a lot of fire as Oakland beat them 59-14 earlier in the season. They are going to be busting their butts to avenge that game. There is no doubt you will see a different Denver team on the field for this one. The Raiders aren't exactly playing great football and last week Jacksonville racked up over 200 yards rushing against them. The Raiders are bound to be a bit over-confident after destroying the Broncos early in the season. And, they have Kansas City and Indianapolis on deck, games that will get more of their attention than this one. Oakland is killing backers as a favorite at just 6-21 ATS in their last 27. Road teams have gotten the money in the last five in this series, with the Broncos 5-2 ATS in their last seven here. This is just too many points. Take Denver plus the points.
SCOTT SPREITZER
GOY - COLTS
BLOCKBUSTER - JETS
KARL GARRETT
40 DIME LIONS
10 DIME JAGS
CHUCK O'BRIEN
75 DIME SEAHAWKS
20 DIME JAGS
TRACE ADAMS
1500* SEAHAWKS OVER
500* EAGLES
2 MINUTE WARNING
10 DIME RAIDERS
JOEL TYSON
75 DIME SAINTS
BRETT ATKINS
40 DIME JAGS
5 DIME NY JETS
STEVE BUDIN
50 DIME GIANTS
DOUBLE DRAGON
RAMS -2.5
JAGUARS +4.5
EAGLES +3
COWBOYS -7
SEAHAWKS +5
RAIDERS -6.5
PATRIOTS -14
BEARS -7 (-120)
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Tenn
Billionaire - Ravens
No Limit - Seattle
Board - Dallas
TV GOW - Miami
Pinnacle - Giants
Perfect Play - Jets
Chris Jordan
Dallas -7
Rocky Sheridan
7* Falcons -6
7* Raiders -6.5
5* Eagles Over 46
5* Colts Over 48
5* Saints +1.5
5* Atlanta -4