Northcoast
3'* Giants
3* Colts
3* Texans
DAVID MALINSKY
4* BOSTON / INDIANA UNDER 192.5
This Total came much higher than we expected, one of those prototype settings in which the markets Zig when they should Zag. In this case we are dealing with some rather extreme Boston pendulums, and that makes for excellent timing.
The Celtics have played back-to-back over’s, but there is no issue of the pace changing – in each of those games both they and their opponents shot 50 percent or better, a true extreme. Even off of allowing 51.7 percent in those last two games the Boston defense is #2 on our best set of ratings, and this bounce-back mode on that end has us in the right place at the right time, especially with Shaq returning to add depth up front, and slow things down on both ends of the floor.
Speaking of slowing things down, there is not a stronger pattern anywhere in the league right now than the way that the Pacers are playing in this role on the road. They have played Under the Total in eight of their last eight outings as road underdogs, by a collective 146 points, an average of 18.3 per game below the projections. What was a mediocre defense LY is now one that has moved up to #9 this season, and from a pace standpoint they are down 2.5 possessions per game. This is going to be half-court basketball for both sides, and we do not expect either the pace or offensive efficiency this Total is calling for.
Tom Freese
15* GOM Colts
JB Sports
2* Toronto +7.5
STEVE DUEMIG
30 DIME SEAHAWKS
15 DIME RAVENS
10 DIME COLTS
Don Wallace Sports
4* Dallas -9
4* New Orleans +2
4* Cleveland +1
4* Indianapolis -4.5
3* Boston -8
King Creole
5* GOM Arizona / Carolina Over
Northcoast
Marquee - Rams
Marquee - Patriots Under
Kyle Hunter
3* Jaguars/Colts Over 48.5
It should be no secret by now that the Indianapolis run defense is not any good. Jacksonville knows how to exploit this defense, as they have shown in recent meetings with the Colts. The Jaguars are averaging 179 yards per game on the ground in their last eight games against the Colts. At the same time, Peyton Manning has thrown for more than 300 yards in three of the last four meetings with Jacksonville's defense. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The over is 10-3 in the Colts 13 games this year and 8-4-1 in the Jags games this season. There is a good chance some of the starters will be back for the Colts in this matchup and Manning will have some extra weapons. Both quarterbacks have thrown a lot of picks this year, so don't be surprised if the defense scores in this one as well. I like the over in this game.
3* Eagles/Giants Over 46
The Philadelphia Eagles have had the best offense in the NFL over the last five weeks. Mike Vick is throwing the ball as well as ever and McCoy is proving to be the real deal in the backfield. The Eagles are averaging 35.2 points per game in their last five games. The Giants defense is solid, but at this point I believe the Eagles can move and score quite a few on everyone in the league. Philadelphia's defense is allowing 26 points per game on the road this year. The Giants running game has gotten going of late and I expect them to be productive again on Sunday. This may well be the biggest game of the week as both of these teams enter at 9-4. The over is 8-1 in the Eagles last 9 and 8-3 in the Giants last 11 games at home. I expect the offenses to have the upper hand all throughout this game. Take the over here.
3* Saints/Ravens Over 43.5
The single biggest takeaway from the Ravens game with the Texans last Monday night for me was that this Ravens defense isn't even close to the level they used to be. The secondary is fairly weak, and the front seven wear down by the fourth quarter as well. The New Orleans Saints offense may have started a bit slowly this year, but they are absolutely on fire of late. The Saints have scored at least 30 points in each of their last five games. The passing attack ranks third in the NFL, and I think they'll exploit the Ravens secondary in this game. Baltimore has been a little better offensively at home this year, and I think their trio of great wide receivers will be a mismatch against the Saints as well. Ray Rice is bound to have a breakout game soon, and I think it could be here. I think the line is set too low here, and I'm taking the over.
Joseph D'Amico
Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Atlanta Falcons -6
I know the Falcons are playing their 3rd straight road game. I also know they face division rival New Orleans next. But the NFCs best team is hot, hot, hot. They have won 7 in a row SU, going 6-1 ATS. They come off of two NFC South victories over Tampa Bay and Carolina. Matt Ryan has been superb with 22 TDs, just 8 INTs, and 3147 YP. Receivers Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are shredding secondaries for a combined 1784 YR and 12 scores. They also have Michael Turner running the ball for five 100+ yard performances and 10 TDs in his L7 games. Seattle will most likely get back WRs Williams and Obomanu but lost wideout Deon Butler LW. The Seahawks are having trouble protecting their immobile QB Matt Hasselbeck. They have the 31st ranked running game, averaging a mere 84.8 YPG on the ground. Their defense is just as bad, giving up 33 or more points in 5 of their L7. The ‘Hawks have been blown out 7 times this season by a minimum of 17 points. Two of those beatings were at home against solid running teams. Sound familiar? The Falcons are 5-0 ATS their L5, 5-1 ATS their L6 road, and 9-2 ATS their L11 as a favorite of 3 ½-10 points. The Falcons soar. Take Atlanta.
The Duke's Sports
Oakland (-7) for 2.5 Units
Denver/Oakland 4:15: The Broncos should continue to struggle offensively without McDaniels calling the plays. Newly appointed OC McCoy doesn't have a firm grasp on play calling and uncertainty remains at QB with Orton banged up and taking limited amount of snaps throughout the week. Tebow should see action but shouldn't be a threat vs an Oakland defense that plays the pass well and will most likely spot blitz repeatedly. The Raiders blasted Denver in the first game and sport a 5-0 ATS mark vs the AFC West. The Broncos haven't responded well off losses and Studesville is left with a team in a building stage of development without an identity on both sides of the ball. The Raiders, however, know who they are and possess a solid run game with McFadden and Bush whose success running helps alleviate the pressure on QB Campbell. The Raiders have responded well off losses with a 7-3 ATS mark and we'll take them here.
Vince Akins
4* Green Bay / New England Over 43
With Matt Flynn at QB for Green Bay, New England will try to take advantage. They always blitz young QBs and what that does is create the opportunity for big plays – for both the offense and defense. Look for New England to get close to this total themselves and for Green Bay to do enough to push it over.
That’s what happened last week in a 36-7 win over Chicago. It was an impressively commanding win as they led by 7 after one quarter and 33 at half. The Patriots are 7-0 OU (8.4 ppg) since January 07, 2007 at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on the road (team=Patriots and H and 10<=p:margin and 7<=M2 and p:A and 20070107<=date).
It was a clean game for New England with just four penalties. The Patriots are 13-0 OU (13.5 ppg) since December 24, 2006 when they led by at least a TD after one quarter last game and committed five or fewer penalties (7<=p:M1 and p:penalties<=5 and team=Patriots and 20061224=4 and team=Patriots and p:AW and NB and 20070107<=date).
Green Bay had a killer 7-3 loss last week when Aaron Rogers went out with a concussion. They were not prepared for life without Rogers, scoring 23.5 points less than expected as a 6.5 point favorite. The Packers are 13-0 OU (14.0 ppg) since November 14, 1999 after a game where they scored at least 10 points less than expected and failed to cover by at least a TD (p:ats margin<=-7 and p:DPS<=-10 and team=Packers and 19991114<=date).
They just could not move the ball consistently with only 13 first downs, however, the Packers are 11-0 OU (16.5 ppg) since January 2, 2000 after a game which they picked up 15 or fewer first downs and scored 14 or fewer points (p:FD<=15 and p:points<=14 and team=Packers and 20000102<=date).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND 38, Green Bay 17
Jim Feist
Underdog GOY New York Jets
GOW Buffalo Bills
Inner Circle Detroit Lions
Oskeim Sports
3* Seahawks
2* Jets
2* Ravens
Larry Ness
8* St Louis -2.5
Kansas City has a serious problem at QB given the emergency appendectomy that Matt Cassel went through last week. Coach Todd Haley has said that his starting QB will be a game-time decision and I'm expecting Cassel to play. However, can be really be that effective having gone under the knife just over a week ago? Cassel may be limited to just handoffs or quick throws from the shotgun formation. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, that may still be preferable to having to play Brody Croyle who is winless in 10 career starts. Last week against the Chargers, Croyle was completely ineffective by completing 7-of-17 passes for only 40 yards. Kansas City managed a mere 67 total yards of offense while failing to convert ANY of their 11, third down opportunities. The result was a 31-0 mauling at the hands of the Chargers. Now Kansas City must stay on the road for the second straight week, where the Chiefs have lost (and failed to cover) in FIVE of their last six games. KC will hope to get its rushing game going (No. 1 at 165.4 YPG) but it will face a very strong front-seven from the Rams' defense. St Louis ranks 12th in the NFL by limiting teams to just 105.7 rushing YPG and on its home field, has held teams to only 89 rushing YPG (KC averages a more modest 130 YPG rushing on the road). The Rams are allowing just 310.5 total YPG and 16.2 PPG at home, overall. Given the limited passing attack the Chiefs will be relegated to one way or another, the Rams will be able to stack more players in the box to further complicate Kansas City's aspirations to run the football. St Louis returns home after three games in a row on the road that concluded with a 31-13 loss in New Orleans. The Rams should rebound with a better effort here as they have covered in SEVEN of their last eight games coming off a pointspread loss. St. Louis has won (and covered) in FOUR of its last five games on their home field and one of the reasons the Rams have been more effective at home is that rookie QB Sam Bradford is given a 'longer leash' to orchestrate their passing attack. Both of these teams need a win to keep pace in their respective playoff chases. However, the KC quarterback situation is just too much for them to overcome. St Louis will take care of business back on its home field and move to 7-7, not bad for a team which had won just SIX games (combined) the previous three seasons!