BEN BURNS
NFL TOY
Kansas City/Cleveland Over
SIXTH SENSE
BEST BETS
YTD 41-36 +3.90%
3% TENNESSEE -3.5
3% KANSAS CITY -2
PITTSBURGH -2.5 Green Bay 40.5
Green Bay won the battle at the line of scrimmage last week as they out rushed Chicago 4.7ypr to 3.5ypr (146-59), out passed them 6.5yps to 5.0yps and out gained them overall, 5.5yppl to 4.5yppl. Pittsburgh really struggled at lowly Cleveland, getting out rushed 4.6ypr to 3.4ypr (171-75), although about half of that was on Josh Cribbs wild cat runs, were out passed 4.2yps to 3.5yps and out gained overall, 4.5yppl to 3.5yppl. They were also sacked eight times. GB is above average running and throwing the ball at 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr and 6.7yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has really played strongly as of late, allowing just 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.3yps against 5.7yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. Meanwhile, the Steelers have started going the other direction. They still throw the ball well at 6.9yps against 6.3yps and overall on offense average 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl, making them slightly better than GB. But, on defense, they are almost an average defense now, allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr but 5.6yps against 5.7yps for a total of 4.9yppl against 5.0yppl. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and project about 43 points. Going back to 2002, Pittsburgh is now just 2-14 ATS when laying four or less points. The Steelers have done very well in the Roethlisberg era when laying five or more points but they struggle when they are laying a short number, generally meaning the team they are playing is as good, if not better than them. Pittsburgh has lost five straight including embarrassing losses to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland. GB seems to be getting better and better each week. While it’s a short number and Pittsburgh is still a solid team, I have to lean with the team playing better right now. GREEN BAY 24 PITTSBURGH 20
TENNESSEE -3 Miami 41.5
Miami went to Jacksonville and got the win, 14-10. They out passed Jacksonville 6.7yps to 4.2yps and out gained them overall, 5.0ypr to 4.0ypr. Tennessee dominated a bad Rams team in their 47-7 win. The Titans our rushed St. Louis 5.3ypr to 4.2ypr (160-88), out passed them 10.6yps to 3.5yps and out gained them overall 7.8yppl to 3.7yppl. The Rams were intercepted five times. Tennessee runs the ball better than Miami with 5.3ypr against 4.2ypr compared to Miami at 4.5ypr against 4.4ypr, throws the ball better at 6.2yps against 6.0yps compared to Miami at 5.3yps against 5.9yps and is better overall on offense at 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl compared to Miami, who is below average on offense at 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Miami does defend the rush better at 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr compared to Tennessee’s 4.2ypr against 4.2ypr but Tennessee does a much better job defending the pass at 6.4yps against 6.5yps compared to Miami’s 6.9yps against 6.5yps. Overall, Tennessee is slightly better on defense allowing 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl and Miami at 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. Numbers favor Tennessee by five points and predict about 51 points. Tennessee qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 81-38-7. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 157-77-7. Meanwhile, Miami qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is 44-19-1 and plays against them here. Vince Young should get the start here. They have won six of their last seven games, in which Young has started all of those games. The lone loss on the road to Indianapolis, who defeats everybody. Better offense, better defense, value, laying a short number with solid situations behind them. TENNESSEE 30 MIAMI 17
New England -7 BUFFALO 40.5
NE got by Carolina but the game was pretty evenly played from the line of scrimmage. They were out rushed 5.3ypr to 4.6ypr, out passed Carolina 6.0yps to 5.6yps and were out gained overall 5.4yppl to 5.2yppl. Buffalo went to KC and controlled the game in their 16-10 win but the game was closer at the line of scrimmage. Buffalo was out rushed 5.8ypr to 5.7ypr although they did gain 200 yards rushing but allowed KC to rush for 152 yards. KC out passed the Bills 4.3yps to 3.3yps and overall both teams averaged 4.8yppl. KC threw the ball 25 times more to bring those numbers closer together seeing they didn’t maintain a very good average throwing the ball. NE averages 7.3yps against 6.0yps and 6.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. The Bills really struggle to throw the ball at just 5.2yps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense struggles badly against the rush, allowing 171 yards and 5.0ypr against 4.4ypr. But, they have played good pass defense, allowing just 5.4yps against 5.9yps and are average overall on defense at 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Numbers favor NE by 7.5 points and predict about 39 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. Buffalo has struggled at home against NE, losing each of the last five played here by at least 13 points. NEW ENGLAND 24 BUFFALO 17
Arizona -12.5 DETROIT 47
Arizona went to SF and fell behind early and weren’t able to come back for that early deficit. They were out rushed 5.3ypr to 47ypr (189-85), did out pass SF 4.8yps to 3.8yps and out gained SD overall 4.8yppl to 4.5yppl. They turned the ball over seven times to only two for SF, which prevented them from coming back. Detroit brought a poor offense and defense to Baltimore and left with a 48-3 loss. They couldn’t come close to handling the physical style of Baltimore. They were out rushed 7.7ypr to 3.2ypr, out passed 10.4yps to 3.6yps and out gained overall 8.7yppl to 3.4yppl. Arizona is above average throwing the ball at 6.6yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. Their rush defense has started to take a hit as they now allow 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. Detroit suffers badly on both offense and defense. They average just 5.0yps against 6.0yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense, they allow 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.6yps against 6.3yps and 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Arizona by 10.5 points and predict about 47 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. Fitzgerald is questionable in this game while Matthew Stafford is out and Calvin Johnson is questionable. They lost Kevin Smith for the season last week. Detroit is getting worse as the season progresses and losing key bodies as well. I would expect Arizona to be focused for this game after last weeks debacle in SF. ARIZONA 31 DETROIT 17
PHILADELPHIA -8.5 San Francisco 42.5
Philly won a shootout at NY last week, 45-38. They were out rushed 4.3ypr to 3.2ypr but out passed the Giants 10.2yps to 9.2yps. Overall, they were even at the line of scrimmage with both teams averaging a whopping 7.1yppl. Four Giant turnovers and allowing Philly to return a punt for a touchdown did them in. SF mauled Arizona early and often and used seven Cardinal turnovers to prevent Arizona from coming back from an early deficit. SF out rushed Arizona 5.3ypr to 4.7ypr (189-85), were out passed 4.8yps to 3.8yps and out gained slightly overall, 4.8yppl to 4.5yppl. SF is above average running the ball at 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr but well below average throwing the ball at 5.3yps against 6.2yps. They are much better recently throwing the ball with Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree. Overall, they average 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense continues to play well, allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They will be challenged this week against a good Philly offense that averages 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense is also very tough, allowing just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.6yps against 6.3yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Philly by 8.5 points and predict about 44 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. SF is able to put points on the board better than they have been with Smith and Crabtree now in the lineup. They’ll face a stiff test in this game against an aggressive Philly defense but they typically stay competitive in games, evidenced by just one loss by more than seven points this year. PHILADELPHIA 24 SAN FRANCISCO 20
NY JETS -5 Atlanta
Atlanta played a great game against NO last week despite missing key personnel but came up short. They out rushed the Saints, 4.2ypr to 3.7ypr, out passed them 8.7yps to7.2yps and out gained them overall, 7.0yppl to 5.8yppl. The Jets dominate an inferior Bucs team in their 26-3 victory. They out rushed TB 4.2ypr to 2.2ypr, out passed them 5.4yps to 2.3yps and out gained them overall 4.6yppl to 2.2yppl. Atlanta has become an average team on offense without Michael Turner and Matt Ryan. They average 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense has been the sore spot all year as they allow 7.2yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl overall. The Jets live on their running game and defense as they average 4.6ypr against 4.5ypr (169 yards rushing per game) but just 5.7yps against 6.3yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl overall. The defense allows just 3.9ypr against 4.4ypr, 4.7yps against 6.1yps and 4.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Numbers favor the Jets by 8.5 points and predict about 38 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. Mark Sanchez will get the start in this game. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are game time decisions. Atlanta is coming off of three straight home games and they haven’t fared well on the road against above .500 teams this year. They have lost by 16, 16, 8 and 3 points on the road against above .500 teams. Also, throw in a loss at Carolina by nine points. They did defeat SF on the road. Jets rush the ball well and have a much better defense, which is a recipe for success. NY JETS 23 ATLANTA 16
BALTIMORE -11 Chicago 40.5
The Ravens dominated lowly Detroit 48-3 last week. They out rushed them 7.7ypr to 3.2ypr, out passed them 10.4yps to 3.6yps and out gained them overall 8.7yppl to 3.4yppl. Chicago lost to GB and although the game was close, they were beaten at the line of scrimmage and Jay Cutler tossed two more interceptions. Chicago was out rushed 4.7ypr to 3.3ypr (146-59), out passed 6.5yps to 5.0yps and out gained overall 5.5yppl to 4.5yppl. The Bears are falling apart on offense. They average just 3.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. And, their once proud defense is just average, allowing 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Baltimore averages 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense allows just 3.5ypr against 4.0ypr and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl overall. Numbers favor Baltimore by 11 points and predict about 40 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. Ravens are typically bullies in these types of games – above .500, laying more than a touchdown against a team below .500 – as they are now 14-2 ATS at home since 2000. During those 16 games, they have allowed the opponent to score more than 10 points in just 3 of those 16 games. At the same time, they have scored at least 22 or more points in 13 of those 16 games. Don’t see Chicago competing here. BALTIMORE 26 CHICAGO 10
KANSAS CITY -2 Cleveland 37
KC lost at home to Buffalo but didn’t play badly at the line of scrimmage. They out rushed Buffalo 5.8ypr to 5.7ypr, although they did allow 200 yards rushing (gained 152 themselves), out passed Buffalo 4.3yps to 3.3yps (202-73) but did throw the ball 25 times more. Overall, they were even at 4.8yppl to 4.8yppl. Four more Matt Cassell interceptions did them in. Cleveland shocked Pittsburgh on Thursday night last week in their 13-6 victory. There was nothing fluky about their win as they dominated Pittsburgh. They out rushed them 4.6ypr to 3.4ypr (171-75), out passed them 4.2yps to 3.5yps and out gained them overall, 4.5yppl to 3.5yppl. They also sacked Pittsburgh eight times. As bad as KC is, they do face a team that is actually as bad or maybe even worse than them. KC averages just 4.6yps against 6.0yps but Cleveland averages just 4.2yps against 5.8yps. Overall on offense KC averages just 4.3yppl against 5.2yppl but Cleveland averages just 4.1yppl against 5.1yppl. That makes KC’s offense ever so slightly better. On defense, both teams allow 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr and the KC pass defense allows a not so good 7.2yps against 6.5yps while Cleveland allows 7.1yps against 6.3yps. Overall, KC allows 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl, while Cleveland allows 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Cleveland brings an ever so slightly better defense, making these teams about even. Numbers favor KC by three points and predict about 36 points. Cleveland qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is 44-19-1 and plays against them here. KC qualifies in a contrary situation, which is a remarkable 66-18-4, including 43-4-3 since 1995. The situation is 2-0 so far this year. KC should get Bowe back this week at WR. This is as good a spot for KC as they have had all year long. KANSAS CITY 24 CLEVELAND 14
Houston -10.5 ST LOUIS 43
Houston got a badly needed win to stay in the playoff hunt. They smoked Seattle 34-7 by out passing the Seahawks 9.4yps to 5.6yps and out gaining them overall 6.7yppl to 4.5yppl. The Rams were blown out at Tennessee 47-7. They were out gained 5.3ypr to 4.2ypr (160-88), out passed 10.6yps to 3.5yps and out gained overall 7.8yppl to 3.7yppl. They also threw five interceptions. Houston continues to struggle to run the ball at just 3.4ypr against 4.2ypr but they do throw the ball well at 7.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense has improved and are just slightly below average for the season at 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. The Rams continue to run the ball well at 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr but average just 4.9yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl overall. On defense, they allow 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.2yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Houston by 10.5 points and predict about 39 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. The Rams are a mess. Nobody knows who will start at quarterback this week. They cut OL Richie Incognito last week after a series of 15 yard penalties. A number of players are believed to have come down with H1N1 this week and may miss this game. Houston has played a lot of good teams on the road this year. The only poor team they faced, Buffalo, they defeated by 21 points. The Rams have lost all but two of their home games by at least 10 points. They lost to Arizona by only eight points but were down by much more than that at halftime and then Kurt Warner got hurt and didn’t come back in. They also lost to the Saints by five points. A lot of points to be laying on the road for a team like Houston but no other way to play this at this time. HOUSTON 27 ST LOUIS 10
SAN DIEGO -6.5 Cincinnati 43.5
Cincinnati went to Minnesota and their offense struggled badly as they were beaten badly by the Vikings, 30-10. They out rushed Minnesota 5.0ypr to 3.8ypr but were out passed 5.6yps to 3.1yps, throwing for just 91 yards. Overall, they were out gained 4.7yppl to 4.0yppl. SD got out to a lead at Dallas and held on but they were out gained at the line of scrimmage. They were out rushed 4.0ypr to 2.4ypr, did out pass Dallas 8.1yps to 7.7yps but were out gained overall, 6.0yppl to 5.3yppl. A key goal line stand in the second quarter and a missed field goal by Dallas helped SD keep their lead and ultimately win the game. Cincinnati’s offense continues to struggle, especially throwing the ball, as they average just 5.9yps against 6.2yps and overall on offense 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense remains above average at 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. SD doesn’t run the ball well at 3.2ypr against 4.2ypr but they don’t have to when they are averaging 8.1yps against 6.3yps. Overall, on offense they average 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is average at 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. Numbers favor SD by six points and predict about 45 points. SD qualifies in a late season situation, which is 103-57-4 but Cincinnati qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 560-422-30. I’ll lean towards Cincinnati but it’s a weak lean. SAN DIEGO 24 CINCINNATI 21
DENVER -14 Oakland 37
Oakland saw their party come crashing down last week as soon as Bruce Gradkowski left the game. Enter Jamarcus Russell and the old Raider offense appeared. They were out rushed 3.7ypr to 2.7ypr, out passed 6.3yps to 3.9yps and out gained overall 5.1yppl to 3.4yppl. They were also sacked eight times last week. Denver lost at Indy but came out ahead in the final stats. They fell behind 21-0 but then limited Indy to no drive of more than four plays until Indy put together a long drive near the end of the game for their final touchdown. Denver out passed Indy 6.0yps to 5.2yps and out gained them overall 4.8yppl to 4.5yppl. Oakland averages just 4.6yps against 5.9yps and 4.3yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense is allowing 4.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.2yps against 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Denver is average on offense at 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl but their pass defense allows just 5.2yps against 6.5yps and 4.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Denver by 18 points and predict about 32 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. Denver has played a tough schedule this year but when they have played cupcakes like Oakland, they have taken care of business. They have won their three games against bad teams by 21, 20 and 31 points, including that 20 point over Oakland on the road earlier in the year. In those games, they have averaged 31 points while allowing an average of 7 points. With Gradkowski out and Charlie Frye in for Oakland, I see more of the same. DENVER 31 OAKLAND 10
SEATTLE -6.5 Tampa Bay 39.5
TB was throttled at home by the Jets last week, 26-3. They were out rushed 4.2ypr to 2.2ypr, out passed 5.4yps to 2.3yps and out gained overall 4.6yppl to 2.2yppl. Seattle was also beaten badly at Houston last week, 34-7. They were out passed 9.4yps to 5.6yps and out gained overall 6.7yppl to 4.5yppl. TB averages just 5.0yps against 5.9yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl .On defense, they struggle at 4.7ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.7yps against 6.4yps and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. Seattle is well below average on offense averaging just 3.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.5yps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense is below average defending the pass at 6.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Seattle by 4.5 points and predict about 39 points. TB qualifies in a general league situation, which is 51-22-1. Seattle will be without Nate Burelson this week, while Kellen Winslow did not practice today and is listed as questionable. TB has lost by 13, 3, 3 and 10 points on the road against less than .500 teams this year. They also lost by just two points at Miami. Seattle has defeated similar competition to TB at home this year by 28 and 12 points. Value and situations lie with TB but trends lie with Seattle, which is enough to keep me off this game as a best bet. SEATTLE 21 TAMPA BAY 17
Minnesota -9.5 CAROLINA 43
The Vikings bounced back strongly last week in their 30-10 win over Cincinnati following their poor performance at Arizona the week before. They were out rushed 5.0ypr to 3.8ypr (although gained 142 yards to 119 for Cincinnati), out passed the Bengal’s 5.6yps to 3.1yps, including limiting Cincinnati to just 91 yards passing. Overall, they out gained Cincinnati 4.7yppl to 4.0yppl. Carolina fought hard at NE but came up short. They out rushed NE 5.3ypr to 4.6ypr (but out gained 185-126), were out passed 6.0yps to 5.6yps and out gained NE overall 5.4yppl to 5.2yppl. Three NE turnovers kept Carolina in the game. Minnesota averages 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl, making them average on defense. Carolina is rushing the ball well at 5.8ypr against 5.4ypr but just 5.3yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense struggles against the rush, allowing 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Minnesota by just six points and predict about 45 points. Carolina qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 80-32-3. Carolina has been pretty competitive in their games this year when they aren’t turning the ball over and Matt Moore has done a better job of protecting the ball than Delhomme did. But, Carolina is missing both their offensive tackles and they don’t defend the rush well. If I could get 11 points in this game I would make Carolina a play. MINNESOTA 27 CAROLINA 20
NY Giants -3 WASHINGTON 43.5
The Giants lost a shootout against Philly last week. Both teams averaged 7.1yppl but NY turned the ball over four times and allowed a punt to be returned for a touchdown. Washington dominated Oakland, especially after Gradkowski left the game and was replaced by Russell. They out rushed Oakland 3.7ypr to 2.7ypr, out passed them 6.3yps to 3.9yps and out gained them overall, 5.1yppl to 3.4yppl. They also sacked Oakland eight times. The Giants pass offense has been stellar, averaging 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense remains above average at 6.2yppl against 6.5yppl. Washington averages just 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.2yps against 6.4yps and 5.3yppl against 5.6yppl but their pass offense has improved in recent weeks. The defense remains strong at 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. Numbers favor the Giants by 1.5 points and predict about 41 points. I don’t have any situations in this game although Washington does qualify in a couple of situations that are decent but don’t meet my criteria. Washington has struggled lately here against the Giants, losing by at least six points in each of the past three seasons. On the road this year, against better than average teams, the Giants have totaled the following margins: 2, -21, -23, -20. They defeated the two bad teams they faced by 24 and 11 points. I rank Washington somewhere in between but the Skins have been playing good ball as of late. I’ll lean towards Washington in this game. WASHINGTON 21 NY GIANTS 20
Double Dragon
Packers +1
49'ers +9
Ravens -11
Chargers -6.5
Seahawks -6.5
Vikings -9
Pointwise Phone Service
3* HOUSTON, SEATTLE, G. BAY, NY JETS
2* SAN FRAN, WASHINGTON, UNDER BUFF/NE
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket - Kansas City -2
San Francisco +8.5
Baltimore -11
Houston -11 This play is good up to -13.*
Cincinnati +7
Southern Miss Over 57.5
Sirduke Sports
8* Pittsburgh Steelers-2
8* Kansas City Chiefs-2
8* Oakland Raiders+14
9* Mid Tenn St +3.5
Tim Trushel
20* Cincy
Pitt
Balt Over
K City
Carolina
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: Carolina +9
Detroit +13.5
Kansas City -2
Inside Corner
2 Units Minn/Car Under 43
2 Units NE/Buff Under 40.5
2 Units Seattle -6.5
2 Units Arizona -12.5
2 Units Pittsburgh -1
Brandon Lang
40 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - (if 7 1/2 you buy the 1/2, and lay 7. Never get beat by the hook) - It just won't be there today for the Bengals.
If you struggle offensively at Minnesota, and only throw for 97 yards against the 16th rated pass defense of the Vikings, what are you going to do against the 10th pass defense in the Chargers? A defense that is getting better week-in and week- out.
Fact of the matter is the Bengals offense hasn't really been all that dynamic all year and when you start throwing for less than a 100 yards in week 14, I just can't trust you back to back on the road against anybody anywhere.
It was a very physical game at Minnesota, and they were completely shut down and now they face an even hotter team in the Chargers winners of 11 in a row in December under Norv Turner and if that isn't enough for you, get a load of this:
Philip Rivers is 18-0 SU, and 15-3 ATS when facing a team off a loss at home, which of course is the case with the Bengals last week at Minnesota.
My gut feeling right now is you can pencil in the AFC Championship game right now in Indy between the Chargers and the Colts because you are going to see just how outclassed this Bengals team is against what I feel is the 2nd best team in the AFC and right now the 3rd best team in the NFL.
And folks, you can't discount the Chris Henry factor on the hearts and minds of these Bengals players and if they were at home it might be a different story but on the road in this situation, I will gladly lay the number in what I truly feel will be a double digit home win for San Diego.
The Chargers are the play.
20 DIME - GREEN BAY PACKERS -"Unleash hell" in December.
Famous words of Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin days before his team took the field at home against the Raiders, this after his team lost to the Chiefs in Kansas City the week before.
"Unleash hell" was a 27-24 home loss to Oakland as a 13 1/2 point home favorite.
Ok Mike, we will give you a mulligan and let you go to Cleveland and face a Browns team you had beaten 13 in a row and another chance for you to "unleash hell."
You then proceed to lose 13-6 in one of the most embarrasing, lethargic efforts I personally have ever seen since I've been a handicapper.
Let's be honest here, this team should have never won the Super Bowl and they should never have been put up on that holy pedestal they were put on because then this fall they were on wouldn't have been as shocking.
Fact of the matter is this is an average football team playing average football, and once you really accept them for who they are, then losses like at Kansas City, home to Oakland and at Cleveland won't seem so shocking.
Green Bay on the other hand is playing solid football and from an X's and O's standpoint, they propose some serious matchup problems against this very beatable Steelers defense.
The bottom line for me is the fact when the Steelers returned home to face the Raiders and QB Brad Gradkowski, they were playing for their season and they failed. Then they went on the road with their season even more on the line facing Brady Quinn and they failed.
Now against the best team they have faced in weeks and a hot QB in Aaron Rodgers, I just don't see them having the will power nor emotion to step up with 60 minutes of football if they weren't able to do it the last 3 weeks against 3 of the worst teams in football.
I am going to war with the Packers all day long.
10 DIME - CLEVELAND BROWNS - The bottom line is the Kansas City Chiefs shouldn't be favored over anybody in the NFL. Simple as that.
They were a home favorite once this year and that was at home to the Raiders and they lost outright 13-10.
This Cleveland team is playing perhaps their best ball of the year right now and with the extra time off since beating the hell out of the Steelers 13-6, a game they sacked Big Ben 8 times, it is going to be a long day for Matt Cassel.
If Cassel plays well enough against this improving Browns defense to get the win, so be it, I will take my loss and move on but for my dollar I say no way.
Since their super bowl type win at home over the Steelers 3 weeks ago, they have proceeded to get destroyed by the Chargers 43-14 and back-to-back games at home by Denver 44-13, and the Bills 16-10.
Head coach Todd Haley now realizes Matt Cassel isn't the answer, but then again as bad as this team is they have no answers and I will take the Browns in this spot who have at least shown some consistent play the last few weeks.
Cleveland has covered 4 in a row, and 7 of their last 10, and I really like what I am seeing from Brady Quinn at QB, and the wildcat with Joshua Cribbs.
I will go to war with the small dog here and call for the Browns to get their 2nd straight win here
Cleveland is the play.
FREE SELECTION - ARIZONA CARDINALS
Brett Atkins
20 Dime NFL Sunday Night Sure Thing - MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Minnesota has a high-scoring offense and a defense that is throttling the opposition, both bad news items for the Panthers. The Vikings average 29.9 points a game and allow just 18.7. Carolina has scored 17 points or less in each of its last four games and manage just 17.3 points a game. Lay the chalk and play the Vikings tonight as they win thsi one by 17.
10 Dime NFL Power Play - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The Chargers are the hottest team in the NFL, winning eight straight and pushing their way to the No. 2 spot in the AFC playoffs. They are getting great play from QB Philip Rivers and they've won 16 straight (11-5 ATS) December games. Cincinnati has too much on its mind to get this one. They got drilled by the Vikings a week ago, had a WR die on Thursday and now have to travel cross-country for this one. Look for San Diego to win this one by 14 at least.
Chuck O'Brien
20 DIME - CARDINALS
20 DIME - 49ERS
20 DIME - SEAHAWKS
Cardinals
BREAKDOWN: How pissed off do you think Kurt Warner and the Cardinals are after that disastrous seven-turnover performance at San Francisco on Monday night? Arizona was held to a season-low nine points, suffered its second-worst loss (24-9) of the season and blew a chance to clinch the NFC West title. Because of all that, you can expect the Cardinals to come out on a mission today at Detroit and put it on the pathetic Lions, who have lost three straight games by scores of 34-12, 23-13 and 48-3 to the Packers, Bengals and Ravens, respectively. Last week’s loss in Baltimore as a two-touchdown underdog was as ugly as it gets, as Detroit got outgained 548-229, giving up 308 rushing yards. Daunte Culpepper played quarterback for the injured Matthew Stafford and was predictably a disaster (16-for-34, 135 yards, two INTs). Good news for the Cardinals’ defense – which is just two weeks removed from picking off Brett Favre twice and holding Adrian Peterson to 19 rushing yards – is Culpepper is getting the starting nod again today. And he won’t have his best RB, as Kevin Smith is out (also, Pro Bowl WR Calvin Johnson continues to nurse an injury). … Last week’s turnover-fest aside, the Cardinals boast one of the most explosive, productive offenses in the league. Conversely, the Lions are dead last in the NFL in scoring defense (31.2 ppg allowed) and total defense (400.5 ypg allowed). And with or without Stafford, Detroit’s offense is awful, averaging barely 16 points and just 297 total yards per game, and they have the second-worst turnover margin (minus-11). … Despite the loss in San Francisco, Arizona is still 13-5 ATS in its last 18 overall and 5-2 SU and ATS on the road this year (6-2 SU and ATS on the road going back to last year’s playoffs), and it has cashed in four straight games after a SU loss and four straight after a non-cover (Arizona hasn’t had back-to-back non-covers all year). Meanwhile, Detroit is 3-9-1 ATS overall, 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight, 3-12 ATS in its last 15 at home and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six as a double-digit underdog
49ers
BREAKDOWN: The 49ers have just one win in six road games – on opening day at Arizona – but they’ve been very competitive in their five road losses, none of which have been by more than six points. In fact, those five losses were by a total of 19 points, including a three-point last-second defeat at Minnesota as a seven-point underdog; a four-point loss at Indianapolis as a 13-point ‘dog; and that six-point setback at Green Bay as a six-point pup. Obviously, the Vikings, Colts and Packers are all playoff teams, as are the Cardinals, whom San Francisco beat twice (including Monday’s 24-9 home rout in which the defense forced seven turnovers) … The 49ers are 8-3-2 ATS on the season, 3-1-2 ATS on the road (only non-cover was a three-point loss at Seattle as a one-point favorite) and 4-0-2 ATS as an underdog. Since last year, the Niners are on an 8-1-2 ATS roll when catching points. … Philadelphia is riding a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS), but it has failed to cover in its last two home games (four-point loss to Dallas; three-point win over Washington as a 9½-point favorite). … The 49ers’ defense has been stout of late (13.6 ppg last five games), but Philadelphia has given up 31, 20, 24 and 38 points in four of its last five games, including 38 points and 500-plus yards in last week’s game at the Giants. Lastly, the Eagles have just one win of more than seven points in their last six contests, and that was against the Matt Ryan-less Falcons, while six of the 49ers’ last eight games were decided by a TD or less (and the only two that weren’t, San Francisco won outright).
Seahawks
BREAKDOWN: The last time a team from Florida traveled all the way to Seattle, it lost 41-0. That team was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are a billion times better than the woeful, one-win Buccaneers. In fact, four of Seattle’s five wins this season have come at home, and the Seahawks cashed in all four of those games. One was against the 49ers two weeks ago (20-17 as a one-point underdog), and San Francisco showed on Monday against Arizona that it is a quality team. Seattle’s other three home victories were double-digit routs of the aforementioned Jaguars, plus NFL bottom-feeders Detroit (32-20) and St. Louis (28-0). Well, Tampa Bay certainly qualifies as a bottom-feeder. Not only are the Bucs 1-12 on the season, they’re 1-16 SU (and just 5-12 ATS) going back to last December. Since upsetting Green Bay 38-28 at home after their bye week, the Bucs have lost five in a row, including three double-digit setbacks to New Orleans (38-7 at home), Carolina (16-6 on the road) and the Jets last week (26-3) … Tampa’s offense is a joke, ranking 29th out of 32 teams in points scored (14.6 per game) and 28th in total yards (278.2 ypg). It has scored 17 points or less in eight of its last 11 contests, failing to crack double digits in three of the last four. And the Bucs’ defense isn’t any better, giving up 27.4 ppg (only the Lions and Rams give up more). … With blowout wins over the Rams (twice) and Lions, Seattle has proven that, while it is no longer an elite team, it can dominate inferior competition. It will do so again here with an easy victory as the Seahawks improve on impressive ATS runs of 6-2-1 at home, 5-1 as a favorite, 10-3 as a home favorite and 5-1 against losing teams.
Joel Tyson
600♦ - Arizona Cardinals minus the points
Detroit should just throw in the towel, as last week's 48-3 debacle in Baltimore puts them at 2-7 against the spread this season when getting double-digits!
2-7 WITH DOUBLE-DIGITS!!!!
That is almost impossible to believe an NFL team in 2009 can be installed as a double-digit underdog 9 times in 13 games.Arizona is off that horrid Monday night 7 turnover effort at San Francisco, and still hasn't clinched the West Division title yet. Today the Cardinals shred the porous Detroit defense, and come up with the double-digit road win, and cover.
200♦ - San Francisco 49ers plus the points
Saturday's snow storm has forced this game to be moved back to a 4pm eastern kick-off, and I just get the feeling the Niners will be game today against the Eagles.Philly may get their win, but their downfield burner Desean Jackson will be neutralized by the weather, and it should be noted that San Francisco is on an 8-0-1 against the spread run when getting points under Mike Singletary.This team prefers being the underdog, they seem to thrive with the chip on their shoulder, and nothing to lose.Philly knows that Dallas was a winner last night in New Orleans, so the pressure will be on the Eagles to close this one out, but Philadelphia has failed their last pair of home games against the spread, and they will fail here.
Take the Niners.
WAYNE ROOT
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers
Take: Cincinnati Bengals
Music was playing in the Bengals’ locker room as players packed up to leave for California. The team also held a 90-minute afternoon practice. With a win over the 10-3 Chargers, the Bengals (9-4) will clinch the AFC North title and grab the inside track for the second seed in the conference playoffs. One of the team captains, said it was good for the team to be together to deal with Henry’s death. The team held its holiday gathering as scheduled on Thursday. “We had enough motivation already and now it’s added with the guys trying to live up to his legacy,” Whitworth said. “Things go on. “Coaches and players included. We’re going to ball that fist up and try to deliver a good, solid punch to whoever. If we were here or on the road it doesn’t matter. We’re going to be that unit.” This should be a very emotional game for the Bengals. Defensively, the Bengals are set as are the entire team. The Bengals are within reach of just their second playoff spot in the last 19 years. The Bengals swept their division games, winning twice against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, who in turn beat the Chargers. The Bengals planned to travel on Friday, something they didn’t do before going to Oakland and losing last month.Palmer said arriving a day early will be “a huge advantage. The Bengals (9-3) can clinch the AFC North title with a win or a Ravens loss, as well as keep themselves in the running for the No. 2 seed. Players will put a commemorative No. 15 sticker on their helmets and coaches will wear commemorative pins during the game. Theyb will be ready for this contest...a close contest at that!! WAR has this rated a No Limit play!
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Take: Pittsburgh Steelers
If someone would have told me Pittsburgh dropped five straight and Green Bay had won 5 straight I would have made GB the favorite. Throw in Big Ben's concussion... the Steelers, without star safety Troy Polamalu and a Steelers team riddled with injuries, I would have made a play for GB. But not so fast....Years ago, I developed a theory and called it " DON'T MAKE SENSE" and applied it to handicapping the NFL and the Las Vegas Sportsbooks/Oddsmakers. There was NO way the sportsbooks were offering FREE MONEY. So when I would see something like an easy line or the perceived wrong favored team...I would take notice. Why is Pittsburgh favored. It "don't make sense"! Throw in the internal problems of the Steelers, injuries and the past 5 weeks of results, it "don't make sense". There's no free money in Vegas....play the Steelers as a Billionaires play!
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Take: Carolina Panthers
WAR thinks Pittsburgh should beat Green Bay. With that in mind consider this: With Favre sitting at 27 touchdown passes and just six interceptions, the Vikings are one victory away from the NFC North crown. They could have it wrapped up before they hit the field Sunday night if Green Bay loses to Pittsburgh. And then the old man sits most of the game out. A scenario built into a week 15 NFL schedule so bet this game early in the day. Matt Moore will make his third consecutive start at quarterback for Carolina. Favre's last ugly performance was in a blowout loss to Arizona on the road. Last year, he had trouble at the end of the season as the wear and tear takes a tow. WAR has this rated Millionaires Club and is playing Carolina.