King Creole
2** PITTSBURGH STEELERS minus the pts vs green bay packers
2** OVER the TOTAL / GB Packers @ PIT Steelers
*optimum lines in this parlay would be PITT –2 or less… and an OU line of 40.5 or less
This one has a lot in common with last week’s 2-team on Washington (ALSO went to –2)… and an unlikely ‘OVER’ in their 34-13 win over the Raiders.
Playing a Packer ‘OVER’ after they have gone 0-3 O/U in their last 3 games? Yes. Green Bay has gone a perfect 4-0 O/U after playing the Bears in the last 2 years. When taking to the road in the month of December against AFC opponents, they have gone 6-1 O/U in the last 6 seasons.
Speaking of “Unders”, we didn’t find an OU tendency when running the query…. But an ATS tendency emerged.
So far this season, All non-division dogs of 10 < points playing off 3 or more ‘UNDERS’ in a row (Pack) have gone 1-9 ATS.
The Steelers laid 10 points last week at Cleveland.. and also laid an EGG, losing outright 13-7.
5-0 O/U since 2003: All NFL teams playing off a SU road loss as a DD FAVORITE (Pitt). Going all the way back to 1990, if these teams are e off BB losses in a row (like the Steelers), they have gone a PERFECT 5-0 ATS.
Pittsburgh has now lost 5 games in a row…
20-6 O/U since 2001: All home favs playing off 5 or more SU losses in a row… In the last 4 years, these teams have gone 6-1 ATS vs any opponent off a SU win (like the Pack).
Green Bay enters on one hell of an OPPOSITE run, winning EACH of their last 5 games.
1-9 ATS since 2002: All road dogs playing off 5 or more SU wins in a row (Pack)… versus any < .500 opponent (Pitt).
The Steelers were favorites in BOTH of their last two losses.
Dallas just hit with this System last night:
16-6 ATS last 3 years: All NFL teams off BB favorite losses. If taking on an opponent off a SUATS win (like the Pack), the results improve to 6-0 ATS.
We also note that within this System. When the OU line is 45 < points, the results are 14-4 O/U… and 8-2 O/U in non-division games.
5-0-1 O/U since 2001: All favorites playing off a THURSDAY favorite loss (Pitt).
5-0 ATS this season: All non-div home favs (Pitt) vs any opponent off BB ATS wins (Pack).
Marc Lawrence
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals will look to regroup following the tragic loss of WR Chris Henry when they invade San diego to meet the Chargers. Our attraction to the Bengals is straightforward. Until last week’s bewildering loss at Minnesota, the average margin differential in 11 of Cincinnati’s 12 games this season was a tad less than a touchdown per game, meaning they’ve had a propensity for playing games close to the vest. On the other side of the coin, only three of San Diego’s 12 games this season have been settled by more than 10 points. Hence, a chess match in the making. Digging deeper, an examination of this year’s results finds the Chargers 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in games against .666 or less opposition. In the only two games in which they have squared off against foes with a greater than .666 record they are 0-2 SU and ATS, both losses as a favorite. Then there’s the ever-present Norv Turner factor, he and his 16-30 SU career mark in games against greater than .667 opponents, including 3-7 during the final four weeks of the season. We wrap it up with this scheduling gem from our database: non-division favorites in a one-game home stand off back-to-back road wins, the last as a dog with a road game on deck, have been in this role only six times since 1980 when hosting an opponent off one-loss exact. They are 0-6 ATS - losing EVERY GAME straight-up! It’s in spots like this that wins streaks in December come to an end. We recommend a 3-unit play on Cincinnati.
Executive
350% TB +6
300% NE -6
300% Philly -7
300% Cincy +7
300% Pitts Over 41
Jim Feist
5* Mid Ten St/So Miss OVER
5* Buff
Inner Circle SF
Platinum SEA
SCOTT SPREITZER
I'm laying the points with the Cardinals on Sunday. Last week, I released Baltimore on these pages and explained just how perfect of a matchup the Lions created for the Ravens. Final score: 48-3. I believe we have another blowout matchup on our hands again this week, and Detroit fits the bill again. The Lions are back at home, but will attempt to slow a fired-up Arizona attack with the league's worst defense. Detroit is 25th in the league against the run and 32nd against the pass. They now must face an Arizona offense that's obviously loaded at wide receiver, has an improving ground game, and of course, the pinpoint accuracy of Kurt Warner. The Lion defense has been getting torched by some of the lesser arms in the league. With little to no pass rush, Warner ought to have a career day...and that's saying something. Detroit DC Gunther Cunningham has gone on record recently complaining about his team's lack of focus in practice. He even went as far as saying the team was so bad last Thursday and Friday that he made them do on Saturday what they were supposed to have done the day before. The players weren't too pleased. Center Dominic Raiola has stated, "It's coming. This locker room is probably going to turn over again." The team has tossed in the towel, and Cunningham's public criticism of his players earlier this week is not going to help. On top of it all, the Lions are a walking M.A.S.H.-unit right now, including the young stars who were supposed to turn this franchise around. The banged-up defense has allowed 33.5 ppg in their last six outings, giving up an average of 436.5 yards per game on 6.33 yards per play. They're allowing over 140 yards rushing per game. The pass defense has been simply ugly over the last half-dozen games, allowing and average of 302 yards passing per game on 8.7 passing yards per attempt, and a 68% completion rate. Simply ugly. Meanwhile, take away one good game against equally poor Cleveland, and the offense has averaged 9.7 ppg in seven of their last eight games. Culpepper and Stafford have thrown 15 INTs in the last six games with just 9 TDs, five of those scores came against the Browns. Arizona owns an aggressive defense that brings a lot of heat, and the team will be ready to make last week's embarrassing loss a distant memory in a hurry. The Cardinals are two wins away from another NFC West title. They'll be one game away when this game goes final. Arizona is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall, including 6-2 ATS away from home. The Lions check-in with a 3-12 ATS mark in their last 15 at home. They are also 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS against teams with a winning record this season, getting outscored by an average of 33-13. I'm laying the points with Arizona, my Blue Chip Blowout Game of the Year.
I'm laying the points with the Chiefs on Sunday. Big win for the Browns over Pittsburgh last week. Big enough that the "front brass" is still interviewing Mike Holmgren to take the reigns. And after the major upset, I expect Cleveland to return to normal this week. Normal means we'll see their NFL-worst, 32nd-ranked offense at work. It's an offense that picked up its first rushing TD from a RB of the season in last week's contest. Normal also means the Browns will bring the league's 4th worst run defense. And that's "just what the doctor ordered" for Kansas City, who badly needs a win. The Chiefs ran the ball well last weekend. Jamaal Charles rushed for over 140-yards. And with Charles facing a bad run defense, the ground game should begin to open things up for the KC passing game, which by the way, gets their top receiver back on the field for the first time in a month. Dwayne Bowe returns after serving a four-game suspension for drug use. Between Bowe and Charles, Cleveland should be in a world of hurt. The Browns' defense has absolutely no team speed by NFL standards. One player (besides Matt Cassel) who'll benefit greatly from Bowe's return is underrated WR Chris Chambers. He will no longer draw doubles with Bowe on the field at the same time. It's a tough matchup for a Cleveland team that's off their biggest win in quite a while. The Browns are averaging just 11 ppg and 225 total yards per game away from home. Take away a 37-point outburst in their loss at Detroit and that average drops to a ridiculously low, 7 ppg. This is the home finale for the Chiefs, and with road games at Denver and Cincinnati, I expect Todd Haley's troops to focus on the task at hand and beat the softest team they will have faced all season. I'm laying the points with Kansas City, my AFC Wipeout Game of the Month.
I'm taking the points with the Panthers on Sunday night. With no postseason on the horizon, this game and their home finale in two weeks against the Saints become big games for the Panthers. And it's a team that has played well at home, for the most part. Carolina is 3-2 SU in their last five at this venue. The Panther defense has allowed just 313.6 total yards per game in those five outings, which would be good enough for the 10th best defense in the league if those were their season-long stats. They have held their "guests" to 56% passing, and have seven interceptions while allowing just four touchdown passes. A few teams have been able to run a bit on the Panthers, and the Vikings have Adrian Peterson in the backfield. But rushing teams are overrated in the NFL. In fact, six of the top seven passing teams in the league are in playoff position at the start of this week's action. The top four rushing teams are all on the outside looking in. The Vikings have not been all that impressive away from home as of late. They won their first three road games, but those were against Cleveland, Detroit, and St. Louis, teams with a combined record of 5-34 SU. Minnesota has lost two of their last three away from home. They have allowed 27, 26, and 30 points in their last three outside of the Metrodome for an average of 27.7 ppg. The defense allowed almost five yards per carry in those games, and the pass defense has shown plenty of chinks in the armour, allowing a 63% completion rate (63 of 100) for 7.5 pypa. In fact, Minny has allowed 7 passing touchdowns and they have no interceptions in their last three road games. The offense has put up middle of the road yardage numbers in those contests. And Brett Favre finshed the Steeler and Arizona games with a 2 to 3, TD to INT ratio, while getting sacked seven times. We have seen two "lesser" teams put up huge fights over "elite" teams the last three nights. Dallas beat New Orleans outright and Jacksonville covered what would have been the number against Indy, if not for the questionable playing time of the Colts' starters keeping the number low. I expect another strong underdog performance in this one. Minnesota has had some rough Decembers. But you can't rely on those numbers, because those teams didn't have anyone like Brett Favre under center. What you can "bring to the fight" are Carolina's December numbers. The staff and a lot of the personnel have been the same in recent years, and Carolina has gone on an 8-1 ATS December run, including 2-0 ATS so far this season. The Panthers are also 4-0 ATS against winning teams and they're on a 5-0 ATS run against the NFC, for a 9-0 combined situation. I believe this one goes right to the wire as far as the outright winner is concerned, making those generous points well worth taking. I'm taking the points with the Panthers on Sunday night.
I'm laying the points with Southern Miss in Sunday's New Orleans Bowl. These two teams were far apart this season in the way they dealt with other bowl participants. MTSU lost both of their chances and were no match for Clemson and Troy, losing 37-14 and 31-7, respectively. The overall statistics in those two games were just as bad as the final scores would indicate. Southern Miss split SU and ATS against four bowl participants and the average scores and yardage per game were virtually even. While the Golden Eagles have put up the strong numbers, it's their matchup advantages in the trenches and at the skill positions that puts us on their side. Southern Miss QB Martevious Young was tremendous after recovering from a foot injury. He can pull it down and run for daylight and plays behind an outstanding offensive line. Young finished with a 13 to 1, TD to INT ratio over the second half of the season, and his favorite deep receiver, DeAndre Brown, goes unmatched in this one. The key for MTSU in many of their games has been the pass rush generated by their front seven. The secondary is not too special. But as mentioned, USM owns a strong run and pass-blocking offensive line and a QB with quick escapability, negating the Blue Raiders' defensive strength. USM also gets good mileage on the ground from RB Damion Fletcher, who's just over 60 yards away from reaching 1,000 yards for the fourth straight season. Fletcher wasn't always at his best earlier this season, thanks to a groin injury. He's said to be 100% healthy for this one. Defensively, the Eagles down-linemen should have little trouble with MTSU's offensive line. The Blue Raiders have to run the football to win games. In their step-up games against Clemson and Troy, the ground game was held to 92 and 109 yards rushing. Their third loss came against Mississippi State, 27-6. The Bulldogs held the Raiders to 42 yards on the ground. In those three games, MTSU was forced into a one-dimensional attack. And passing without being set-up by the ground game is not their forte. The Blue Raiders connected on just 50.4% of their passes, with a 5.18 pypa, just two touchdowns, seven interceptions, and six sacks. I believe they're in for their fourth rough outing of the season. Southern Miss enjoys the Sun Belt Conference, having covered seven of their last nine opportunities. They have covered four in a row as a favorite, and they're making their eighth straight bowl appearance, including their second in a row to the New Orleans Bowl. The Golden Eagles own the edge in just about every category on the field and in experience. I expect a fully focused effort and a double-digit win. I'm laying the points with Southern Miss, my first Knockout of the bowl season.
Winning Points
7 Tenn
5 San Diego
4 Jets
3 S Miss
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Dolphins
Rocketman
Chiefs
Bob Balfe
Bills
Lenny Del Genio
Chiefs
Larry Ness
25* NFC Game of the Year (67% s/Week 4)
My 25* NFC Game of the Year is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:15 ET. The Seahawks were down 24-0 before they got their initial first down last week at Houston and were outgained 311-25 until their last drive before halftime. As for the Bucs, they were held to 15 yards of offense in the first half at the Jets before finishing with 124 for the game. The Bucs didn't manage a first down until the middle of the third quarter and that came on a penalty in the team's 26-3 loss. Why get involved in a game like this? Because the Bucs are a perpetual nightmare, while the Seahawks have shown an ability to play very well at home, especially against competition of this level. Tampa Bay was 9-3 last year before losing its final four games (1-3 ATS). The Bucs are 1-12 (4-9 ATS) in 2009, leaving them with just one win on their last 17 games (5-12 ATS). Rookie QB Josh Freeman led the Bucs to that lone win in his first NFL start, as he threw for three TD passes in a 38-28 home win against the Packers. However, he's got just four INTs and 12 INTs in his five starts since (all losses), with zero TDs and eight INTs in his last two (was 14-of-33 for 93 yards with three INTs and a 12.1 QB rating LW vs the Jets). Tampa has scored seven points or less in THREE of its last four games and the defense is allowing 27.4 PPG on the year (only the Lions and Rams have allowed more). The Bucs will take an eight-game road losing streak into Seattle, where the Seahawks can still be a formidable opponent. Hasselbeck didn't play in Seattle's Week 3 home loss to the Bears and except for one poor home game vs the Cards (10-of-29 for 112 yards with no TDs and one INT), the veteran has been excellent. He's completed 65.0 percent with a 10-4 ratio (92.3 QB rating) in his five home starts and in wins over the Rams (28-0), Jags (41-0), Lions (32-20) and 49ers (20-17), Hasselbeck has completed 70.9 percent for an average of 261.8 YPG with 10 TDs and just three INTs. I've had "big plays" on the Seahawks in THREE of those four games and will 'ride' them again here as my No. 1 play of the NFL Weekend. NFC Game of the Year 25* Sea Seahawks.
C-Star Sports
5000 Units Arizona minus the points over Detroit
5000 Units Houston minus the points over Rams
1000 Units new England minus THE POINTS Over Buffalo
1000 Units KC -1 over Cleveland
50 units San Francisco plus the points over Eagles
Larry Ness
20* Club-80 Play-NFL (83.3% s/2003)
My 20* Club-80 Play is on the Bal Ravens at 4:15 ET. The 7-6 Ravens are in the wild-card mix with the Broncos, Dolphins, Jags and Jets. However, after opening 3-0, the Ravens have yet to win back-to-back games and in fact have alternated wins and losses in their last seven contests. The Ravens are off a 48-3 win over the Lions last week and get the Bears this week. They then finish at Pittsbugh (Steelers have lost five straight) and Oakland (Raiders are 4-9). Clearly, the Ravens have a legitimate chance at finishing 10-6. That may not be enough but first things first. The Bears opened the 2009 season with a 21-15 loss at Green Bay (Cutler threw four INTs) but then won three straight games (Cutler had 7 TDs and 1 INT). Not much has gone right since. The Bears are 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS over their last nine games, as Cutler has turned in an awful season. It's hardly just his fault, as RB Forte has not been nearly as good as his rookie season and the OL has played poorly as well. The Bears come into this game ranked last in the NFL in rushing (85.8 YPG / 3.9 YPC) and the team's best (only?) WR Hester is listed as doubtful. Hester had 52 catches through his first 10 games (on pace for just over 80) but caught just one pass in two straight games and now looks to miss his second straight contest. The Chicago D lost Urlacher before the year began and has never become much of a factor all year. Baltimore has been defined by its defense this decade but this year's unit has allowed about 45 more YPG than last year's, although the Ravens are allowing just 16.8 PPG (third-best in the NFL). Suggs (the team's best rusher) returned last week and safety Reed could play this week. Either way, the unit should have little trouble with Chicago's stumbling offense. Cutler has just eight TDs and 17 INTs (63.8 QB rating), as the Bears have gone 1-5 SU and ATS on the road so far. The Baltimore offense has seen Ray Rice become one of the NFL's better backs this season. Rice rushed for a career-high 166 yards last week and has 1,041 yards (5.4) on the season along with 68 catches. Flacco has been in a funk after a string start but came around some last week (13-of-20 for 230 yards) as the Ravens set team records for rushing TDs (five) and total yards (548) against the Lions. The Ravens have dominated the poorer teams in the league for the last couple of years and the Bears surely fall into that category. What's more, going back to the beginning of the 2003 season, the Ravens are 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 (83.3%) when hosting NFC teams. Club-80 Play 20* Bal Ravens.
PowerPlayWins
New England Patriots (-7) Over Buffalo Bills
New York Jets (-7) Over Atlanta Falcons
Miami Dolphins (+5) Over Tennessee Titans
Kansas City Chiefs (-2) Over Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) Over San Francisco 49ers
San Diego Chargers (-7) Over Cincinnati Bengals
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minnesota Vikings vs Carolina Panthers: Under 43
NC STATE (+10) Over WAKE FOREST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. (+3.5) Over SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Dr Bob
2* Carolina