BEN BURNS
I'm playing on Dallas and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Mavericks to finish 'under' the total a couple of times last week. On 12/14, I played on them to go 'under' vs. the Hornets - a 14 point winner. Two days last, on 12/16 at Oklahoma City, I again played on them to finish below the total. Despite some late fireworks that was also a relatively easy winner. I passed on their last game, thankfully, as it sailed 'over' the total - a 116-108 loss vs. Houston. Off that poor defensive effort, playing with 'revenge' vs. an elite defensive team from the East AND likely (curently listed as doubtful) without Nowitzki, I expect a return to their low-scoring ways.
Note that the Mavs have seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they were coming off an upset (SU loss as a fav) loss and 6-2 the last eight times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss.
Yes, the earlier game (Cavaliers won 111-95 on 11/28) was high-scoring. However, that was at Cleveland. The last four games between these teams, here at Dallas, have finished with 176, 181, 177 and 178 points. Not surprisingly, all four of those games stayed below the total. Looking back a bit further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 12-3 the last 15 series meetings, here at Dallas.
I already mentioned that the Mavs have been involved in some low-scoring games recently - they've seen five of eight dip below the number. That's been even more the case for the Cavs. In its last game, Cleveland combined with Milwaukee for a mere 167 points. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 10-5 in the Cavs' last 15 games.
I don't normally pay much attention to what day of the week it is - at least in terms of how teams perform. However, if nothing else, the Cavs tendency to play low-scoring games on Sunday is "interesting." Check this out. With last week's game (barely) staying below the tota, the Cavs have now seen the UNDER go 25-6 their last 31 games played on a Sunday. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 79-39-2 their last 120 Sunday games. The Mavs have also been profitable for 'under' bettors on the "Lord's Day." They've seen the UNDER go 70-48-5 their last 123 Sunday games, including 17-9 the past 2+ seasons.
Both teams have also shown a tendency to play low-scoring games at this time of year. The Mavs have now seen the UNDER go 25-14 their last 39 games played in December. During the same stretch, the Cavs have seen the UNDER go 24-14 in their 38 December games. I expect another defensive affair. *9 Non-Conf TOW
John Ryan
10* Middle Tenn State +3.5
Northcoast
S Miss
Larry Ness
NFC Game of the Year 25* Sea Seahawks
One of the ugliest NFL games I have ever watched. 😀
The last three minutes of the Steelers game was amazing. 8)
Larry Ness
Sunday Night Delight (New Orleans Bowl)
My Sunday Night Delight is on southern Miss in the New Orleans Bowl at 8:30 ET. Southern Miss is not known as a football power but the team has posted a winning season in each of the last 16 years. This year's New Orleans Bowl appearance makes it 12 bowl games in the last 13 years (mostly under Jeff Bower, who is now coaching the New Orleans Hornets, how about that for a transition?), including seven wins in its previous 11 bowl games. This marks the Golden Eagles fourth New Orleans Bowl in the last six years, with the school going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the previous three. MTSU has a much more modest FB history (moved to FBS in 1999) with just one previous bowl appearance to its credit, a 31-14 loss to Central Michigan in the 2006 Motor City Bowl. The Blue Raiders finished 7-6 that season but dropped to 5-7 last year, while averaging 22.8 PPG and 348.6 yards. However, MTSU hired offensive guru Tony Franklin, who had a short an unspectacular stint as Auburn's OC in 2008. The Blue Raiders hopes for a second bowl game didn't look good after the team's 3-3 start but the Blue Raiders ended the 2009 regular season with six straight victories SU and ATS. It took awhile but the Blue Raiders caught on to Franklin's system, averaging 41.2 PPG and 466.8 YPG during their strong finish. Franklin may have called the plays but QB Dasher executed them. Dasher has a team-high 953 YR (4.8 YPC / 11 TDs) while passing for 2,627 yards with 21 TDs. Quite amazingly, 10 different players caught a TD pass and nine receivers reached at least 100 yards. DD Kyles added 822 yards rushing (6.5 YPC / 3 TDs) at RB, replacing Phillip Tanner (813 yards LY), who was lost to a knee injury in the season's second game. MTSU has a decent defense, ranking first nationally in tackles for loss per game (8.83) and fourth in sacks (3.17). Sun Belt Conference co-defensive player of the year Chris McCoy DE), accounted for 22 tackles for losses and seven sacks. As for Southern Miss, QB Martevious Young played very well after replacing Davis, who was lost to an injury in Week 5. Young would post a 13-1 TD-to-INT ratio in his seven starts and he'll be joined by two very dangerous offensive performers. Senior RB Damion Fletcher needs just 63 yards to become the ninth player to reach 1,000 in all four seasons. Fletcher has 5,224 career yards and expect him to surpass Herschel Walker (5,259) and LaDainian Tomlinson (5,263) for eighth on the NCAA's all-time rushing list in this game. WR DeAndre Brown caught 43 balls (16.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and will be the most dangerous receiver in the game. While MTSU finished with that six-game winning streak, note that the Blue Raiders lost in "step-up games" vs SBC champ Troy (31-7) and Clemson (37-14) plus also lost to the SEC's Miss St (27-6). The Blue Raiders were held to just 81.0 YPG on the ground in those contests, which made them a one-dimensional team. This kind of game is "old hat" for Southern Miss and as mentioned, the venue is very familiar. Sunday Night Delight 15* Southern Miss.