David Chan
10 Unit GOY - Baltimore -3.5
Two Minute Warning
Colts
Al DeMarco
Teaser - Patriots & Chargers
Colts
Chris Jordan
300 Dime Florida International
100 Dime Philadelphia Eagles
Bob Balfe
St Louis -1
Chicago -1
Kansas City -4.5
Denver +2.5
Toledo -1.5
ATS Lock Club
6 Units Ravens -3
5 Units Colts -2
4 Units Packers -3
4 Units Patriots -7.5
Tom Stryker
NY Giants
Wayne Root
Perfect Play - Kansas City Chiefs
No Limit - Cleveland Browns
Billionaire - Oakland Raiders
Millionaire - Buffalo Bills
KELSO
100 Units Washington Redskins +7
50 Units Baltimore Ravens -3.5
25 Units New England Patriots -9
10 Units Philadelphia Eagles -14
5 Units Chicago Bears -1
3 Units Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5
5 Units Florida International Golden Panthers +1.5
5 Units Indiana Pacers -4
Karl Garrett
50 Dime Ravens
10 Dime NY Giants
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Bulls -5
3 Units Pacers -5
Jeff Benton
25 Dime Tampa Bay
15 Dime Detroit
BUCCANEERS
Tampa Bay has been bitten badly by the injury bug the last few weeks, losing a slew of key players to season-ending injuries (mostly on the defensive side of the football). That, along with a healthy dose of late-season bad luck, has contributed to the team’s 1-3 slump (three losses by a combined 14 points, including last week’s 23-20 overtime loss to Detroit.
So why side with the Bucs today? Because they still have a shot (an outside shot, but a shot nonetheless) to make the playoffs; because their opponent is making the always-difficult trek from the Pacific Northwest to central Florida; and, most importantly, because the Seahawks are an abysmal football team.
Let’s tackle that latter point: Going back to Halloween, Seattle has dropped six of its last eight games. The two wins? 31-14 at home over Carolina (a game Seattle trailed 14-0) and 36-18 at Arizona. Throw in a 22-10 home win over the Cardinals on Oct. 24, and the Seahawks’ last three wins have come against two teams with a combined record of 6-23.
The six losses? Get a load of this: 33-3 at Oakland; 41-7 vs. the New York Giants; 34-19 at New Orleans, 42-24 vs. Kansas City; 40-21 at San Francisco; and, last week, 34-18 vs. Atlanta.
I’ll do the math for you: In their last six games against teams not named the Panthers and Cardinals, the Seahawks are 0-6 SU and ATS. The cumulative scoreboard: Opponents 224, Seahawks 92. Margins of defeat: 30, 34, 15, 18, 19 and 16 points!
In fact, when the Seahawks have lost this year, they’ve gone down HARD, as their other two defeats came against St. Louis and Denver by scores of 20-3 and 31-14, respectively. Thus Seattle sits at 6-8 with all eight losses being by at least 15 points! And the defense gave up an average of 34.4 points per game!
By comparison, if you give the Bucs a mulligan for last week’s overtime setback to Detroit, their other five losses were to the Steelers, Saints, Falcons (twice) and Ravens. Combined record of those four teams: 43-10, with all four squads sitting with double-digit wins right now!
A few final points to ponder: While this has been the year of the underdog in the NFL, it hasn’t applied to Seattle’s games lately. The favorite has covered in seven of the Seahawks’ last eight games, including the last five in a row, with Seattle going 0-4 ATS in its last four as an underdog. Speaking of pointspread trends, Seattle has failed to cash in 16 of 21 as a road underdog, nine of 13 as a ‘dog of 3 ½ to 10 points, 34 of 51 on the road, nine of 11 on grass, five of six in December and 18 of 26 against winning teams.
At the same time, the Bucs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six against losing teams and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five after a non-cover.
LIONS
Detroit halted the longest road losing skid in NFL history at 26 with last week’s impressive 23-20 overtime win at Tampa Bay. First the Lions kept the Bucs out of the end zone on a first-and-goal situation late in the fourth quarter, forcing Tampa to kick a field goal to go up 20-17 with 1:39 to play. Then Detroit marched down the field and got a 28-yard field goal as time expired to force overtime, followed by a 34-yard field goal in OT to end the lengthy road losing streak and post its second straight win overall.
Today the Lions return to Florida, only heading a little farther south to Miami for a matchup with the Dolphins, who started out 2-0, then lost two in a row, then had a bye week and since that point they’ve alternated wins and losses 10 straight games, including alternating spread-covers in their last eight.
If you believe in that alternating pattern then Miami should be the play today, seeing that the Dolphins are coming off last week’s 17-14 loss to Buffalo (a defeat that eliminated the Fish from playoff contention). To me, however, that alternating thing is trumped by Miami’s startling home-road split this year. The Dolphins are 6-1 SU and ATS on the road but a shocking 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS at home. The bizarre part? The Dolphins are actually outgaining their visitors by an average of nearly 40 yards per game (335.3-296.6), but they’ve been outscored by more than 6 points per game (22.6-16).
Miami’s home woes aren’t just limited to this season, by the way. The Fish are just 17-44-1 ATS in their last 62 games in South Beach, including 6-28 ATS in their last 34 as a home chalk. They’re also in ATS slumps of 13-27-1 against losing teams, 16-35 as a favorite regardless of venue and 6-20 when laying 3½ to 10 points.
As for the Lions, once again they’ve won two in a row (the win at Tampa was preceded by a 7-3 home win over Green bay), and they’re also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 overall, 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a big underdog (3½ to 10 points), 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a victory and 6-1 ATS in their last seven after a spread-cover.
Bottom line: Detroit’s last three games were decided by 3, 4 and 4 points and five of their last seven games were decided by four points or fewer, while Miami’s last three games ended in final scores of 13-10 (loss), 10-6 (win) and 17-14 (loss), and half of the Dolphins 14 games have been decided by five points or fewer.
I sense another tight contest here (especially with how badly Miami’s offense has struggled). And with veteran QB Shaun Hill due back under center for the Lions and with Miami QB Chad Henne regressing badly (QB ratings of 37.8, 58.3 and 86.9 the last three weeks), I’ll grab the points with the spunky visitor that clearly hasn’t quit on the season.
The Gold Sheet
Super Power 7 - Baltimore
1* Indianapolis Over
1* Houston Over
1* NY Giants
Lenny Stevens
20* Baltimore
20* Oakland
10* NY Giants
10* San Diego
Charlies Sports
500* 49ers / Rams Under 39½
30* Tampa Bay -6½
20* Tennessee +4½
10* Lions +3 (free play)
Ben Burns
10* Florida Int Over
10* Miami
10* Cincinnati
10* Cleveland
9* SF Under
9* Minnesota