DAVID BANKS
DOLPHINS
CHIEFS
JETS
CHARGERS
EAGLES
UNDER 40
TOLEDO
OVER 56
PISTONS S
HAWKS
Larry Ness
27 Club Packers
LT Profits
3* San Diego
2* Baltimore
2* New England
Rainman
3* Baltimore
3* Chicago
1* Indy
1* Seattle
1* Tennessee
1* San Fran Under
1* Fla International
1* Fla International Over
NORTHCOAST
3'* CHIEFS
3* RAVENS
3* CHARGERS
MR EAST
5 UNITS: BALTIMORE RAVENS -3
The Cleveland Browns had a good 6 week stretch where they were 4-2 and really should been 5-1 but lost to the Jets in overtime after blowing a lead late, and the 6th game was a 4 point loss at Jacksonville. The rest of the Browns season before and after has been painful to watch as they are just 1-7 with the lone win against Cincinnati, a team that lost 10 straight games, and beat them soundly last week. The Browns offense has gone cold scoring just 36 points in the last 3 weeks, and it won't get any easier against the Ravens. The Ravens have a solid defense, but it is the offense that is finally playing up to expected levels, and they have gone for 30+ in their last 2 games. They have held 9 of 14 teams to 17 or less this season, and a struggling Browns team should become the 10th. Ravens own a 13-4 ATS mark vs teams with a losing record, while the Browns after an ATS loss are 5-13-1 ATS in their next game in the last 19 occurrences. I''ll go with Baltimore here.
4 UNITS: WASHINGTON REDSKINS +7
The Redskins have had a tough season in many ways. Donovan McNabb was supposed to be the answer, and before he completes 1 season in Washington he is benched in favor of Rex Grossman. The defense which carried them a year ago, has been disappointing to say the least as the Skins rank dead last in the league. Despite all the miseries, this team could be trading places with Jacksonville, and instead of being 5-9, a few breaks, they could be 8-6. The Skins have lost 5 games by 4 points or less, so if you turn 3 of those around they are sitting at 8-6, and this line is nowhere near 7, which is way to high. Jacksonville ranks #26 on defense, so they aren't exactly getting it done either. When you consider this team has lost 4 games by more than 3 TD's, and has won 5 of their 8 by a TD or less, it is clear they are not a TD better than the Redskins. Skins are 6-2-1 ATS as a road dog, and this one is part of a POWER-EAST SYSTEM subset that is 88-44 ATS in the last 132. I'll go with Washington here.
4 UNITS: NY JETS +1
The Chicago Bears have actually played better on the road this season than they have at home. The Bears have 3 losses at home, and 2 of them are to bad teams in Washington, and Seattle. They also needed 18 penalties, and a punt return to beat Green Bay by just 3 points, and a botched call in the endzone to beat the Lions. Overall, there is simply not much room for error with this team. The Jets had a couple horrible offensive games, byt were able to muster 22 points against a tough Pittsburgh team last week on the road to nail down a big win. Their defense has allowed 20 points or less in 17 of their last 20 regular season games, and will make life miserable for the Bears. Jets defense keeps them in all games that are expected to be close, and they are now 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games as a dog of 3 or less. bears at 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 after giving up 15 or less. I like the Jets in this one.
4 UNITS: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +2.5
The Atlanta Falcons come into this game at 12-2 and they are the antithesis of the San Diego Chargers and Green Bay Packers, as those 2 teams have been the best teams from the line of scrimmage in the NFL, but neither might make the playoffs. The Falcons are negative 0.4 yards on both offense and defense when you consider the yards allowed and gained by their opponents to date. That does not translate to a 12-2 record, but here they are. New Orleans will be out to make a statement in this game, and they will try to make it with the better team. The Falcons have played 7 games vs a team with a winning record, and have yet to beat any of them by a TD, which shows just how razor slim their margin is. They have been outgained by these 7 teams by a total of 251 yards on the season. Michael Turner in the 7 games vs winning teams has carried the ball 152 times for 445 yards or 2.9 yards a carry, vs losing teams 148-711 at 4.8 yards a carry. Teams off 6 straight covers are 31-42 ATS and teams off of 8 straight wins are 41-54 ATS as a favorite. New Orleans is 6-1 in their last 7, and 12-4 ATS as a dog of 2 or more in their last 16, and 16-5 ATS after a loss. Atlanta is 9-19-1 ATS playing a team with a winning road record. New Orleans wins.
Marty Otto
Big O - KC Chiefs
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Vikings / Eagles Under 4.5
Jorge Gonzalez
Florida Intl vs. Toledo
Play: Over 56
The Florida International University Panthers will be playing in their first bowl and taking on a Toledo Rockets team that is very familiar to playing Bowl Games. Both teams are very similar in that they have very athletic skilled players on offense and special teams. Both teams have trouble stopping their opponents. The Rockets are allowing 36 points per contest over their last three games. FIU is giving up 28 points per game. Take the Over.
Texas Sports Wire
4* Indianapolis Colts
Alatex
Florida International
Tim Trushell
Upset GOY - Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals Under
Oakland Raiders
BIG AL
4* Atlanta Falcons Under
4* Houston Texans Under
4* Oakland Raiders Under
3* Buffalo Bills
DAVID MALINSKY
4* KANSAS CITY over TENNESSEE
We do not believe the markets are right on this one, and now that the -4’s become a major item on the “Christmas Clearance” shelf, we can get in play. When we have the superior team playing at home in a setting the ensures the top level of concentration and physical energy, the opposition must bring something special to compete in this short price range. Tennessee doesn’t.
The Titans have won one game over the past two months, and it was a victory that does not signal any kind of turnaround. Last week they caught a Houston team that was physically and mentally drained off of a bitter O.T. loss to Baltimore the previous Monday night, and the Texas brought no energy at the start of the game, falling behind 21-0 in the first quarter. Because of that Tennessee did not have to go to the air much at all, enabling Kerry Collins to gut it out despite having an injured right thumb, on top of a torn flexor tendon in the middle finger on that same hand earlier in the season. He did not practice on Wednesday because of those issues, and this time around will have to make some plays, because the Chiefs simply do not give anything away.
Kansas City has only turned the ball over 10 times this season, with only New England having a lower count. QB Matt Cassel is now back to full health, and his ratio of 24 TD passes to five INT’s is a tribute to is maturing in an offense that places a premium on taking care of the football. And that passing game fits well with the Jamal Charles/Thomas Jones tandem already reaching 2,131 yards overland, creating favorable down and distance situations to limit opposing pass rushes (only 24 sacks). It also leads to a game flow that has enabled a young and developing defense to flourish, holding seven opponents to 14 points or less, something that only Pittsburgh can match. They are 6-0 at Arrowhead this season, winning those games by an average of 12.5, and deserve a much higher range than what is now offered.
Larry Ness
8* San Diego -8.5
San Diego is absolutely desperate to close out its season with two more victories to finish with a 10-6 record. The Chargers are two games behind the Ravens and the Jets in the AFC wild card hunt while trailing the Chiefs by one-game in the AFC West race. They cannot afford any more slip ups and still need help. "We've got to win. That's the only thing we can control and that's the only one we really have to worry about," said QB Phillip Rivers. "Trying to figure out all those scenarios, it doesn't help you ... Certainly we know we've got to win the next two to have a chance and then we'll see what happens." After being upset at home by the Raiders three weeks ago, San Diego has been playing with a sense of urgency, outscoring its last two opponents by a 65-7 margin (were double-digit favorites in both those contests). The Chargers remain one of the best statistical teams in the league. Rivers leads an offense that is 2nd in the NFL in both passing yards (284.8 YPG) and total yards (397.8 YPG). The defense has played just as well, as this unit is 2nd in the NFL against the run (89.4 YPG / 3.7 YPC) while leading the league in pass defense (170.3 YPG) and in total yards allowed (259.7 YPG). San Diego now faces a Cincinnati team that snapped its 10-game losing streak and won just its third game of the season last week. The Bengals beat in-state rival Cleveland 19-17 last week. Despite that victory, the Bengals are a team waiting for its disappointing season to finally end. Head coach Marvin Lewis will likely not return next season. The offense took another hit this week when Terrell Owens, the team's leading receiver, was placed on Injured Reserve with a torn meniscus in his knee. While that could create more opportunities for Chad OchoCinco, he is hobbled by his own ankle injury and will not be featured in the offense. Lewis described OchoCinco as "mopey" this week regarding the injury, which did not sit well with the enigmatic wide receiver. It's not an overstatement to suggest that this team is not very motivated to play hard for its coach at this point. The Bengals will likely hand the ball off more often to Cedric Benson after his 150-yard effort last week but ONE games is NOT a season. He is averaging only 3.6 YPC this season while the Cincy offense ranks 27th in the NFL by gaining only 95.0 YPG on the ground (3.7 YPG) and faces that Sand Diego rush D allowing 89.4 YPG (3.7 YPC). Cincinnati has not enjoyed much of a home field advantage over the last two seasons, covering just three times in its last 11 home games. The Chargers may have cost themselves a playoff berth by "giving away" games early this season but right now, I see no reason to buck this team, especially vs the pathetic Bengals.