Marc Lawrence
San Francisco +2.5
Don't look now but the 5-9 49ers are just two wins and a Seattle loss this week from claiming the NFC West. With Jacksonville, San Diego, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and the Giants fighting for their playoff lives at 8-6 or better, it just doesn't seem fair. One person who will be heavily involved in today's outcome is San Fran HC Mike Singletary and we'll draw on Iron Mike's 10-4-2 ATS log as a dog, including 6-0-1 ATS off a loss, as a driving force today. It's also hard to look past Frisco's 8-0 ATS mark as a division road dog of 9 or less points. One number that won't get by us is St. Louis' brutal 0-14 SU and 4-10 ATS record in the final four games of the season since 2006 or its 3-14 ATS log as division favorites since 2003. While Rams' QB Sam Bradford has certainly been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2010 season, their 3-16 SU and ATS mark at home off a double-digit loss versus a foe off a SU and ATS loss, including 0-8 ATS versus division foes, is not. The clincher is this beauty from our powerful database as it tells us to: Play Against any Game Fifteen favorite in its final home game of the season off a double-digit loss versus an opponent off a loss of five or more points. That's because these teams are 0-14-1 ATS in this roles since 1980. We recommend a 4-unit play on San Francisco.
King Creole
2* Seattle +6.5
We mentioned in our preview that we would be holding our noses with this dog. But it also has a lot of BITE in it. First off, you do NOT want to be playing ON Tampa Bay at home these days. That's because the Bucs are a PUTRID 2-14-1 ATS at home in the last 3 seasons. And as non-division favs, they have gone a PERFECT 0-4 ATS.
Seattle makes the l-o-n-g trek EAST for this game. Pretty far from their comfort zone of the Pacific Northwest. They've actually done pretty well in these extreme TIME ZONE changes. The SEAHAWKS are 12-3 ATS as Eastern Time Zone DOGS of 6 > points... including a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing off a loss....
*on a side note, the BUCS have gone 0-3 ATS in the last 3 seasons when hosting these Western Time Zone opponents.
Seattle is playing off a BIG home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The final score was 34-18... and the Seahawks were home dogs of +6 points.
22-7 ATS last 3 years: All NFL teams playing off a SU non-div home DOG loss of 14 > points (SEAT). Amazingly, this situation has come up nine times this season. And our 'play ON' dog has gone a PERFECT 9-0 ATS.
Both teams come in off multiple ATS losses in a row (TB: 0-3 ATS / SEA: 0-2 ATS).
1-8 ATS since 1996 / 0-5 ATS since 2000: All non-div home favs of 6 > points playing off 3+ ATS losses (Bucs)... versus an opponent off 2+ ATS losses (HAWKS).
The line in this game as of Saturday night is Tampa -6 to -6.5. One might think that it would be more advantageous to be playing a dog of +7 or more. In this case, that may not be true. In fact....
ROAD DOGS with a closing line of +6 to +6.5 have gone 23-11 ATS since 2006 when playing off a SU loss (SEATTLE). Just this season ALONE, these dogs have gone 9-1 ATS. And if these dogs are taking on an opponent off a SUATS loss (like Tampa), the results have gone 7-0 ATS in the last 12 months.
Steve Duemig
15 Dime Lions
5 Dime Rams
Cowtown Sports
3* NE -8
3* KC -4
3* Balt -3.5
3* Fla Int. +1
Larry Ness
10* PERFECT STORM Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens
Baltimore can clinch a spot in the playoffs with a win this week. Baltimore entered the week tied with Pittsburgh in the AFC North with a 10-4 record but the Ravens trailed the Steelers in the divisional record tie-breaker, so the opportunity to earn another victory over an AFC North rival is important. That was BEFORE Pittsburgh easily handled the Panthers on Thursday night. Now, Sunday's game has even more importance! Baltimore earned an impressive 30-24 win over New Orleans for its second straight victory, as well as its FOURTH win in its last five games at home last Sunday. The most encouraging development for the Ravens was the performance of RB Ray Rice, who carried the ball 31 times for 153 yards. In all, Baltimore gained over 200 yards on the ground against the Saints defense. This formula for success should continue against a Browns defense that is 25th in the NFL by allowing 129.2 rushing YPG. The fact that New Orleans only rushed for 27 yards last week is also a very good sign for the Ravens in this game. Cleveland will want to get its rushing game going behind Peyton Hillis (1,129 YR/ 11 TDs). However, the Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by holding teams to just 93.6 rushing YPG. The Cleveland offense has struggled most of the year (despite Hillis' breakout season), ranking 28th in passing (187.8 passing YPG), 29th in total yardage (295 YPG) and 28th in scoring (18 PPG). This is bad news when facing Ray Lewis and the always-tough Ravens defense that is 4th in the NFL by limiting teams to just 18.1 PPG. Baltimore had to rally from a 17-14 deficit to defeat Cleveland by a 24-17 score in the first meeting between these two teams and Hillis 'killed' them, rushing for 144 yards plus catching seven passes. This should only help ensure that the Ravens take this divisional game very seriously. At 5-9 for the season and with head coach Eric Mangini's job status much in question, the Browns are playing out the string. Injuries are also setting in with this team as CB Eric Wright was placed on Injured Reserve this week. Both Hillis and QB Colt McCoy have been limited in practice this week due to nagging injuries. In all, the Ravens have too much at stake to slip up against a Cleveland team that they match up against very well. Joe Flacco is 5-0 SU all-time vs the Browns with all wins coming by at least seven points. The Ravens "beat the teams they should beat," going 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs an opponent with a losing record. That fits nicely here.
10* Total of the Week is on Ind/Oak Over
The Colts' win last week over the Jags puts them in control of their playoff destiny. Win out and the Colts are postseason bound for the NINTH consecutive season! Amazingly, the Raiders also have longshot playoff hopes but more importantly, at 7-7, this club has "turned the corner" on a very 'dark' period in team history. The Raiders went 11-5 in 2002 and represented the AFC in the Super Bowl against the Bucs. The team's 48-21 loss sent the club on a downward spiral which saw them never win more than five games in any year since, until this season. While the Raiders are almost assured of not overtaking BOTH the Chargers and Chiefs, they can guarantee the team's first non-losing season since 2002, as well as possibly ending Indy's playoff chances. This will be Oakland's final home game, so don't expect them to go quietly.The Colts held the Jags to just 67 yards rushing last Sunday but the bottom line is this, Indy ranks 28th vs the run on the season, allowing 135.8 YPG on 4.7 YPC. Oakland is the league's second-best rushing team (157.5 YPG / 4.9 YPC) and RB McFadden comes in on quite a roll. He's run for 339 yards in his last three games (6.2 YPC) while catching 10 passes for another 155 yards. QB Jason Campbell will never be confused for Peyton Manning but he has looked more like a real NFL quarterback in recent weeks. He'll be throwing against an Indy pass D which allows 65.9 percent completions and has come up with just 10 INTs. The pass rush (once a strength) has been sub-par this year with only 26 sacks, as opposing QBs own a passer rating of 90.1 Speaking of QBs, it wasn't long ago that Peyton was in the "worst slump" of his career. He tossed 11 interceptions during a three-game losing streak with FOUR being returned for TDs. However, let me note that during that 'slump,' he completed 70.9 percent of his passes while throwing eight TDs and averaging 348.7 YPG through the air (it's all a matter or perspective!). Peyton has "righted the ship" the last two games (both wins), completing 73.0 percent of his passes while averaging 274.0 YPG. Most importantly, he hasn't thrown an interception while tossing four TDs. Oakland's pass D allows a low percentage of completions (54.5) and ranks 5th in passing yards allowed but has allowed a whopping 26 TDs while getting just EIGHT interceptions (91.6 QB rating). Now let's look at raw numbers. Indy games have reached 50 or more points 10 of 14 times in 2010, including averaging 59.6 PPG over the last five. Oakland's last four games have averaged 55.5 PPG with the Raiders scoring 28, 31 and 39 in their last three. Situationally, the Colts have played NINE overs in their last 10 road games (6-1 TY) and the Raiders have gone Over in SEVEN of their last 10 home games (5-2 TY). The total is high but this game is going over, anyway!
OC Dooley
4 Units Browns +4
3 Units Seahawks +6.5
3 Units Texans/Broncos Under 49.5
2 Units Packers -3
2 Units Vikings +14
Frank Patron
100,000 Toledo Rockets -1.5
Scott Spreitzer
GOY - Baltimore Ravens
3G Sports
10* Jacksonville
Carolina Sports
4* Florida Intl
4* Chargers
3* Chiefs
3* Bills
Mike Neri
4* New York Giants
3* Florida International
3* Florida International Over
Dave Cokin
3* Toledo
EXECUTIVE
400% NY Giants +3
300% Tennessee +4
300% Seattle +6'
250% Chicago -2
250% Det/Mia Over 41
250% Toledo -1
1. Asa 6-oak, 3-det
2. Ats 6-balt, 5-indy, 4-gb, ne
3. Ben burns 10-fla int over 10-mia, cin, cleve, minn, sf under
4. Big money 2 oak
5. Blazer 4-tb, 3-stl, indy
6. Carolina sports 4 4-fla int 4-sd, 3-kc, buff
8. Dr. Bob 2 3-oak, 2-sf, cleve
9. Gameday
10. Inside info 3-oak, 2-chi over
11. Joe d 20-hou, 15-jax
12. Kelso 5-fla int 100-wash, 50-balt, 25-ne, 10-phil, 5-chi, 3-tb
13. Lenny stevens 20-balt, oak, 10-nyg, sd
14. Lt profits 3-sd, 2-balt, ne
15. Million club 2-buff, nyg
16. Nationwide (goldst) super power 7: Balt
reg: Indy over, hou over, nyg
17. Neri 1 3-fla int and over 4-nyg
18. Ness 10-tol 6t 10-gb, balt, indy over,
8-kc, jax, sd
19. Northcoast op: Fla int over 3-kc, 3-balt, sd
20. Preferred picks 4-sf, 3-cin
21. Private players 3 4-fla int 4-indy, 3-stl, buff
22. Pure lock balt
24.underdog 3 minn
25. Wildcat 10-fla int 7-chi, 5-nyg, sf
ALATEX (Brent Crow)
15* SUPERPLAY - RAMS
10* VIKINGS
10* KANSAS CITY
10* FLORIDA INTL
LARRY NESS
10* CLUB 27 - PACKERS
10* PERFECT STORM - RAVENS
10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK - COLTS OVER
10* UNDER THE RADAR - TOLEDO
8* LV INSIDER - KANSAS CITY
8* DOLPHINS OVER
8* JAGUARS
8* SEAHAWKS OVER
8* CHARGERS
10* PACERS OVER
SCOTT SPREITZER
ROAD WARRIOR GOY - RAVENS
TOP DOG - RAIDERS
KO SHOCKER - BILLS
BLOCKBUSTER - FLORIDA INTL
GAME OF THE MONTH - HORNETS
JIM FEIST
30* SHOCKER OF THE YEAR - BILLS
20* HIGH ROLLER TOTAL - OVER TEXANS
INNER CIRCLE - RAMS UNDER
GAME OF THE WEEK - LIONS
THE UNKNOWN SOURCE
4* COLTS
4* RAVENS
3* BEARS
3* RAMS
3* KANSAS CITY
3* GREEN BAY
EZ WINNERS
3* LIONS
3* PACKERS
THE PREZ
9* COLTS
5* RAVENS
5* MIAMI UNDER
5* GIANTS OVER
5* SEAHAWKS UNDER
TEDDY COVERS
20* BIG TICKET - BEARS
10* BILLS
10* CHARGERS
10* OVER COLTS
FAIRWAY JAY
20* GOY - KANSAS CITY
MATT FARGO
7* BENGALS
5* REDSKINS
4* 49ERS
4* KANSAS CITY
4* GIANTS
LT PROFITS
3* CHARGERS
2* RAVENS
2* NEW ENGLAND
BOBBY CASH
15* CHARGERS
10* LIONS
10* SEAHAWKS
10* KANSAS CITY
DOC SPORTS
4* JAGUARS
4* LIONS
DR BOB
3* RAIDERS
2* 49ERS
2* BROWNS
GAMEDAY (Billy Hilton)
3* RAVENS
2* RAIDERS
2* GIANTS
LENNY STEVENS
20* RAVENS
20* RAIDERS
10* GIANTS
10* CHARGERS
POINTWISE LATE PHONES
3* RAIDERS
3* RAVENS
3* KANSAS CITY
3* 49ERS
3* OVER RAIDERS
TIPPS
5* 49ERS
5* FLORIDA INTL
COMPUTER KIDS
JAGUARS UNDER
EXPERT
JETS
FINAL SCORE
RAVENS
GOLD SHEET
SUPER 7 - RAVENS
1* COLTS OVER
1* TEXANS OVER
1* GIANTS
POWER PLAYS
10* REDSKINS
PLATINUM PLAYS
CHARGERS
SEATTLE
NEW ENGLAND
RAVENS
REDSKINS
PRIVATE INVESTORS
SEAHAWKS
REED HARRIS
2* VIKINGS
SUPER LOCKLINE
BEARS
SUPER SYSTEMS
DOLPHINS
SWAMI
RAVENS
TRU-LINE
RAMS
BEARS
JAGUARS
UNIVERSAL
VIKINGS
BILLS
USA SPORTS
COLTS
GREEN BAY
VEGAS PIPELINE
10* NEW ENGLAND
WIZARD
RAMS
TEXANS
GIANTS
SIXTH SENSE
3% SAN FRANCISCO
3% CHICAGO
3% OAKLAND
3% INDIANAPOLIS NOVER
3% HOUSTON OVER
BOBBY VALENTINO
75 DIME - BROWNS
CHUCK O'BRIEN
30 DIME - KANSAS CITY
10 DIME - BILLS
STEPHEN NOVER
100 DIME - COLTS
BRANDON LANG
30 DIME - RAVENS
ANTHONY REDD
25 DIME - VIKINGS UNDER (1st Half)
25 DIME - UNDER VIKINGS
25 DIME - FLORIDA INTL
ANDY FANELLI
90 DIME - RAMS
60 DIME - BENGALS UNDER
BRETT ATKINS
50 DIME - RAIDERS
10 DIME - 49ERS
CHRIS JORDAN
300* FLORIDA INTL
100* EAGLES
STEVE BUDIN
BEARS
JAY McNEIL
10 DIME - BILLS
CRAIG DAVIS
50 DIME - RAMS
25 DIME - TEXANS
20 DIME - FLORIDA INTL
DEREK MANCINI
30 DIME - RAIDERS
JOEL TYSON
50 DIME - JAGUARS
10 DIME - KANSAS CITY
TRACE ADAMS
2000* KANSAS CITY
JEFF BENTON
25 DIME - TAMPABAY
15 DIME - DETROIT
MATT RIVERS
150K - LIONS
75K RAVENS
KARL GARRETT
50 DIME - RAVENS
10 DIME - GIANTS
NICK PARSONS
10* VIKINGS UNDER
ETHAN LAW
2% BRONCOS OVER
2% RAMS UNDER
2% PACKERS
GREAT LAKES SPORTS
4* MIAMI
4* RAMS
4* VIKINGS
KELSO STUERGON
100* REDSKINS
50* RAVENS
25* NEW ENGLAND
10* EAGLES
5* BEARS
5* TAMPA BAY
BEN BURNS
10* OVER FLORIDA INTL
10* DOLPHINS
10* BENGALS
10* BROWNS
9* 49ERS UNDER
9* VIKINGS
CHARLIE SPORTS
500* RAMS UNDER
30* TAMPA BAY
20* TENNESSEE
BIG MONEY
OAKLAND
PREFERRED PICKS
4* 49ERS
3* BENGALS
PRIVATE PLAYERS PITTSBURGH
4% FLORIDA INTL
4% COLTS
4% RAMS
3% BILLS
PURE LOCK
RAVENS
CAROLINA SPORTS
4* FLORIDA INTL
4* CHARGERS
3* KANSAS CITY
3* BILLS
MIKE LINEBACK
4* RAVENS
4* UNDER RAVENS
4* PACKERS
END ZONE
LOCK - PACKERS
THE HOTLINE
30* RAVENS
20* OVER DENVER
10* RAIDERS
SPORTS NETWORK
LOCK - REDSKINS
SPORTS ONE
10* KANSAS CITY
SUNBELT SPORTSWIRE
10* MIAMI
VEGAS STEAM
10* 49ERS
VICTORY SPORTS
LOCK - RAIDERS
WORLD WAGER
LOCK - TENNESSEE
JOE D SPORTS
20* TEXANS
15* JAGUARS
BANKERS SPORTSWIRE
500* MIAMI
400* RAMS UNDER
INSIDE STEAM
BILLS
RAIDERS
TOLEDO
LV INSIDERS CLUB
500* GIANTS
300* BROWNS OVER
WINDY CITY SPORTS
9% BEARS
7% BILLS UNDER
COWTOWN SPORTS
2* KANSAS CITY
GATOR
3* CHARGERS
INSIDE INFO
3* RAIDERS
2* BEARS OVER
DOLPHIN SPORTS
5* DOLPHINS
3* OVER DOLPHINS
NORTHCOAST
3.5* KANSAS CITY
3* RAVENS
3* CHARGERS
MARQUEE - OVER RAIDERS
MARQUEE - VIKINGS
MARQUEE - OVER FLORIDA INTL
MIKE NERI
4* GIANTS
3* FLORIDA INTL
3* OVER FLORIDA INTL
BLAZER
4* TAMPA BAY
3* RAMS
3* COLTS
Rainman
3* Baltimore
3* Chicago
1* Colts
1* Seattle
1* Tennessee
1* 49ers Under
1* Florida Intl
1* Florida Intl Over
ASA
6* RAIDERS
3* LIONS