Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, December 27, 2009

PPP

4% Kentucky

TIM TRUSHEL

Atlanta Over
Pittsburgh
NY Jets
Washington

Kentucky

Pointwise Phone Service

3* NY JETS, G. BAY, SAN FRAN, KC

2* ST LOUIS, TENN

1* CHICAGO

WAYNE ROOT

Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants Giants
Take: Carolina Panthers

The New York Giants need help to reach the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. But the Carolina Panthers may be the team to destroy that dream. It seemed like just last week, Julius Peppers was all over the Vikings backfield causing all kind of problems for Brett Farve and the Minnesota Coaching staff. What a way to get the headlines except by doing the same thing to Eli Manning. WAR says it defense and creating T.O.'s and that exactly what Carolina has been doing. New York, averaging 38.0 points and 412.0 yards during its last three games, will face a Panthers defense that’s totaled eight interceptions and five fumbles over the last four contests. And the Panthers may have an answer to their offense. The Giants will have to find an answer for Matt Moore, who had career highs with 299 passing yards and three TDs against the Vikings. He found Steve Smith nine times for 157 yards, including the go-ahead, fourth-quarter score. Moore will make his third consecutive start for Carolina. Look for a rejuvenated Panthers team to "play spoiler" and with no pressure on them get the upset in New York. Take Carolina as a WAR Billionaires Club release.

DOG OF THE MONTH

NY Jets Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Take: NY Jets Jets

Rex Ryan watched Colts tapes all week searching for flaws. His conclusion: To beat the NFL’s last perfect team, it will take, well, the perfect game. “Obviously, you can’t afford any mental mistakes against this offense. Indy coach Jim Caldwell has been noncommittal about if, or how long, his starters will play Sunday. Caldwell said that will be determined in large part by injuries, reiterating what he said last week. Manning should start, as he has done in all 190 regular-season games since joining the Colts, but could exit after a series or two—or after he and his teammates attain individual goals, as has happened in the past. Caldwell doesn’t intend to let numbers impact his decisions. The Jets do have a formula that can beat Indy. They lead the NFL in rushing. And the New York Jets have a dream defense on paper, a unit that’s ranked No. 1 overall in the league and has piled up some gaudy stats. The Jets could actually provide a stiff test for the Colts’ offense. Among the many categories New York leads the league in are pass defense, yards allowed, offensive points allowed, yards per play and scoring drives. One would think that would add up to a team fighting for a No. 1 overall seed, not for its playoff life. The reality is the Jets do have a terrific defense, one that has the talent to be even better. A big performance against the Colts—and a win—could go a long way in them earning the respect they desire. WAR says this respect will be garnered with a Jets victory and has made the Jets his Millionaires Club underdog game of the month!!

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Take: Washington Redskins

It's no secret that WAR is big on defense. He starts with teams that can make a stop. The Redskin team currently has a decent defense ...for a horrible team. The Washington Redskins haven’t had much to hang their helmets on during what has been a dysfunctional season at best.The defense was one of the few bright spots. The Redskins defense has been ranked in the top 10 seven times this decade and the players want it to be there again this year. They are currently ninth in the NFL. “Staying focused the whole year is the key, whether you are the No. 1 defense or far down. I think we just are losing our focus a little bit.” But there's no better way to get recharged and refocused than a game against a bitter rival...that being the Dallas Cowboys...on National TV. With closing games against two red-hot offenses, home this week against Dallas followed by a road trip to San Diego, the Redskins will need to summon up their early season form to remain in the top 10 defensively. This is the 100th meeting between these 2 teams with both playoff meetings won by the Redskins. Emotionally, players and fans say there’s nothing like it, especially in Washington, where the rivalry has always been taken more seriously than in Dallas. WAR thinks the Redskins are up for their season average of allowing around 20 points and that will be enough defense to have the Skins cover the pointspread. This is WAR's No Limit selection taking the Redskins.

Teddy Covers

Jets
Giants
Bills/Falcons Under

Kentucky

Ron Raymond

5* Baltimore +2.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a classic letdown spot after their great come from behind win last weekend vs. Green Bay and they are 2-13-0 against the spread as a -3.0 or less. Home Favorite the last 10 years!

Dr Bob

Opinions/Leans

NY GIANTS (-7.5) 24 Carolina 18
Over/Under Total: 42.5
The Giants are in a must win situation this week and that usually results in the line being over adjusted to account for the fact that the public likes to bet on must win teams. However, that doesn't appear to be the case here, as my main math model favors the Giants by 7 points and my other model favors New York by 6 points.

GREEN BAY (-14.0) 27 Seattle 16
Over/Under Total: 41.5
My math model favors Green Bay by 14 points in this game, but Seattle applies to a 111-43-6 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on their upset loss to Tampa Bay and the Seahawks apply to a 241-123 ATS contrary indicator.

ATLANTA (-9.0) 24 Buffalo 17
Over/Under Total: 41.0
Buffalo lost two more defensive starters to injured reserve, as rookie safety Jarius Byrd and his 9 interceptions join CB Terrence McGee on the IR with 16 other Bills. The Bills secondary has been among the best in the league this season, rating at 0.8 yards per pass play better than average defending the pass while picking off 25 passes as a team.

CLEVELAND (-3.0) 21 Oakland 17
Over/Under Total: 37.5
The Raiders will be starting former Browns' quarterback Charlie Frye, whose lifetime numbers are actually a bit worse than Oakland's season pass numbers. The Browns are also downgraded at the quarterback position with Derek Anderson back at the controls in place of Brady Quinn, who was put on injured reserve for the final two games.

NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) 30 Jacksonville 20
Over/Under Total: 43.5
The Jaguars are in desperation mode at 7-7, but the Patriots still need a win to lock up the AFC East and the Jags aren't likely to play their best in the cold weather. My math model favors New England by 11 points in this game, as Tom Brady should snap out of his mini slump (against two good pass defenses) with a big game against a Jacksonville defense that has given up 7.1 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 6.1 yppp against an average defensive team.

SAN FRANCISCO (-13.0) 26 Detroit 12
Over/Under Total: 41.0
The Niners may be disappointed about being out of playoff contention with last week's loss in Philly, but I doubt that coach Mike Singletary will allow his team to let up in the final two weeks. If San Francisco comes to play then there is no reason that they shouldn't whip a bad Lions team that is going to start Drew Stanton at quarterback.

ARIZONA (-14.5) 30 St. Louis 13
Over/Under Total: 43.5
Not sure who's going to be quarterbacking the Rams yet, Kyle Boller or Keith Null, but it probably doesn't matter. The Rams simply haven't been able to compete against decent teams the last 3 seasons. In fact, St. Louis is just 1-27 straight up and 5-22-1 ATS when not facing a losing team and when not coming off a bye (bad teams are good off of a bye week).

PHILADELPHIA (-7.0) 24 Denver 17
Over/Under Total: 41.5
I wish I had something interesting to say about this game, but I don't. There are situations that favor both teams in this game and my math model favors Philadelphia by 7 1/2 points. I'll pass.

INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) 18 NY Jets 16
Over/Under Total: 40.5
The Jets have the NFL's best defense and they have an advantage over Peyton Manning and the Colts' offense. New York has been particularly good defensively with Lito Sheppard joining top cornerback Darrelle Revis in the secondary. In 7 games with Sheppard starting the Jets have allowed just 3.7 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defense.

Dallas (-7.0) 23 WASHINGTON 20
Over/Under Total: 41.5
The Redskins had covered the spread in 5 consecutive games before getting routed 12-45 as a 2 1/2 point dog last Monday night by the Giants. Teams that lose to the spread by 25
points or more are 84-39-4 ATS the next week since 2001, so it's best not to overreact to last week's result.

Minnesota (-7.0) 25 CHICAGO 18
Over/Under Total: 41.0
I went against Minnesota last week with a Best Bet on Carolina +9, who thumped the Vikes 26-7, but Teams that lose to the spread by 25 points or more are 84-39-4 ATS the next week since 2001 and Minnesota should bounce back tonight with a decent effort as they try to garner a first round bye.

BRANDON LANG

50 DIME - BALTIMORE RAVENS - (If line is 3 you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2. Value number of 3 1/2 with the dog. If 2 1/2 you buy the 1/2 up to +3) - Let's see, my QB throws for over 500 yards at home and I still need the last play of the game to win the football game.

Folks, don't be fooled by the Steelers win over the Packers last Sunday. This is still an average football team all the way across the board.

How soon everyone forgets it was just weeks ago this team lost back-to-back-to- back weeks to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns.

Add it up and you will see a combined record of 11-31.

The bottom line is the Ravens didn't take the Steelers all that serious in the first meeting facing 3rd string QB Dennis Dixon making his first career start in the NFL.

They will take this game very serious with a playoff berth on the line.

Pittsburgh's defense is in big trouble here as they have been torched for over 20 points in 4 of their last 5 games, including 27 or more against the Raiders, the Chiefs and the Packers.

You start seeing the Raiders and Chiefs putting up 27 on you, then you know you have problems.

This Baltimore Ravens team is playing very well as they come off 48-3 destruction at home over the Lions, and a 31-7 win over the Bears.

Already this year on the road they have beaten the Chargers 31-26 and for all intents and purposes let wins get away at Minnesota, and New England.

People are betting the Steelers here as this line opened Pittsburgh -1 1/2, and as of this writing it's up to -3. Let me say now thank you to the betting public for handing me a 3 1/2 point road dog with the Ravens today.

They are the better team. They have a better offense and they are playing very well down the stretch.

50 DIME - HOUSTON TEXANS -You give me the 2nd best passing offense in the NFL against the 23rd ranked pass defense, and I will roll big with the offense every time.

The Texans know how to beat the Dolphins going 4-0 lifetime against them, and the bottom line is there is only one QB having a better year than Matt Schaub, and it just so happens to be Peyton Manning.

Not bad company to be in.

Here is the problem facing the Dolphins today. They can't cover the Texans man- to-man, so they have to play a zone behind it and if you do that, Schaub is going to eat you alive.

I give Miami credit for fighting hard this year, but fact of the matter is they don't match up at all with this Texans team and especially Andre Johnson, who is going to tear up this young Dolphins secondary.

He leads the league with 1,433 yards and 4th with 90 receptions and quite frankly, I see him going for about 12 catches for over 200 yards. That is the day I see him having.

This Texans team has had some impressive road wins putting up 34 on the road at Tennessee in a 34-31 win, beat the Bengals 27-14, crushed Buffalo 31-14 and almost took down Indy 20-17.

The line move on this game has come down a bit, but I always thought it should be a pick'em game, or even the Texans as a small favorite. That is how much better I feel the Texans are than this Dolphins team.

The river card for me in this game is the fact the Texans are 7-2 ATS last 9 as a road dog while the Dolphins are a horrific 5-24 ATS their last 29 as a home favorite.

Big day for Schaub and for Johnson as the Texans win this game outright, and keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

50 DIME - KENTUCKY WILDCATS - (if 6 1/2 you buy the 1/2 up to 7. Value number of 7 with the dog. If line is 7 you buy the 1/2 and get +7 1/2) - Can't pass up the S.E.C rep getting points in a bowl game from an inferior conference.

This Wildcats team that has won 18 straight non conference games SU dating back to 2006.

It should also be noted Kentucky is looking for their 4th straight bowl win which would be quite the accomplishment for this senior class.

The bottom line is I just have to question where the heart of this Clemson team is after the heartbreaking loss to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game cost them their BCS bowl dreams.

I understand the huge advantage it is for the Tigers to have C.J. Spiller, but one guy does not make a football team.

This is an SEC team getting almost a full touchdown on a neutral field, with just as much if not more team speed across the board.

You look at the last 6 games in which the linemaker has seen fit to make the SEC an underdog and you will see them covering 5 of those 6.

Let me further point out this is a Clemson team that has gone 0-7 ATS their last 7 against the SEC including getting drilled by South Carolina this year 34-17.

Some will say they didn't care about the game because it didn't affect the ACC Championship game the next week. I say bullshit.

You can howl at the moon all you want about the Tigers having the higher rated offense and defense but that was against ACC competition and not the SEC, where Kentucky had to play the likes of Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina.

I will also point out Kentucky put up over 300 yards total offense versus the # 1 team in the country in Alabama which was almost as much as what Florida and Tebow were able to put up in the SEC Championship game.

My point is Kentucky has not only the speed to be in this game but the playmakers to win this game and quite frankly I am comfortable with both Hartline, who comes back and should be ready to play here, or freshman Morgan Newton.

All about getting the SEC and the points in bowl games and I will gladly grab the points here.

FREE SELECTION - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Kikki-Sports

2* GOM Steelers
1* NY Giants
1* Cowboys

Dave Malinsky

6* Steelers

Steven Budin

50 DIME RELEASE

Pittsburgh

I got this play at 7:00 A.M. Eastern on Christmas Eve. This line has been Pittsburgh -2 1/2 at most Vegas and offshore books, but it wouldn't surprise me if it goes to -3 by Sunday's kick off. As I always say, you don't sit on winners and that's why I released this play within 30 minutes of getting it. At the same time, this gives the best opportunity to buy down the half point at -2 1/2 right now. If this line goes to -3 or -3 1/2, or that's the price you get after shopping around, in those cases as well I advise you to buy down the half-point as insurance on the Steelers.

Don Wallace Sports

New Orleans -14
Buffalo +9
Baltimore +3
Bengals -14
Washington +7

San Antonio -5

Kelso

100 Units Packers (-14) over Seahawks

5 Units Dolphins -1.5
4 Units Cards -15
3 Units Bills/Falcons Under 40

Chairmans Club - 15 units Saints -14

King Creole

SEA / GBP Over 41

Green Bay’s offense comes into this one in ‘HIGH’-gear. After last week’s 73-point game in Pittsburgh (final score: 37-36!), the Packer offense is averaging 30 PPG in their last 5. And put ‘em at home in DECEMBER as b-i-g non-div HF’s of > 7 points, and these Cheeseheads have gone 11-1 O/U in the last 12 seasons. Speaking of that shoot-out against the Steelers, we note that All NFL home teams off a SU road loss in which they scored AND allowed 35 > pts have gone 22-8 O/U s’1983... and 12-2 O/U vs non-div opponents.

There’s a big line swing in this one as Green Bay goes from a dog role to h-u-ge home favs. 7-1 O/U: All non-div HF’s of 13 > points playing off a SU loss as a dog of 4 points in which they were a favorite of 6 > points. And in this decade, UNDERDOGS have gone 8-1 O/U in this situation.

When these two divisions get together vs each other, a ton of points usually occurs. 19-8-1 O/U L4Y: All NFC WEST teams (Sea) playing a NFC NORTH opponent (GB). When the OU line is < 43 pts, the results are 10-2 O/U. It’s no surprise therefore, that Seattle is 6-1 O/U vs the NFC North while Green Bay is a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in their last 6 games vs NFC West opponents. And when playing off a SU road loss BUT an ATS win, the Packers have gone 14-2 O/U!