Double Dragon
Packers -14
Browns -3
Chiefs +13.5
Steelers -2.5
Jaguars +10
Jets +4.5
Kentucky +7
Mark Lawrence
14-1 ATS Music City Bowl Key Play
Kentucky
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
4* Best Bet - Kentucky
4* Best Bet - New Orleans
3* - Minnesota (Monday night)
2* - Washington
2* - Oakland
Marc Lawrence
10* NFL Game of the Year
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins
The Cowboys invade the nation's capital to take on the Redskins in an NFC East Division battle Sunday night with Dallas looking to make it two wins in a row, while Washington looks to rebound following Monday night's embarrassing 33-point home loss to the Giants. We can’t envision the Cowboys suddenly turning on the switch this time of the season. Last week’s upset win at New Orleans aside, Dallas’ December woes are well chronicled. What’s not known is this: since 1996, the Cowboys are 4-13 SU and 1-16 ATS in games from December out versus an opponent off a loss, including 0-8 ATS in division games. Dallas is also 2-11 SU and 0-13 ATS in games off a win from December on out. Thus it’s no surprise to learn that Tony Romo is 3-14 ATS in his NFL career in games from December out, including 0-9 ATS off a win. It’s been tough enough for Dallas when taking on Washington when the Cowboys are off a win (1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS). It’s even worse knowing Cowboys are 5-13 SU and 3-15 ATS as favorites in games off a SU underdog win when facing an opponent with revenge, including 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS on the road. The clincher, though, comes from our powerful database. It tells us to: Play On any NFL home dog of more than three points off an immediate home loss of 25 or more points. That's because teams in this role are 25-8 ATS, including 11-0 ATS when hosting a division foe that won 11 or less games last season. Looking back we find a Washington squad that, prior to its embarrassing home loss last week, was playing its best ball of the season, riding a 5-game ATS win streak. In those games, the Redskins owned a pair of SU wins and three SU losses - by‰ a combined total of just seven points! Couple revenge with a huge Dallas look ahead to the Eagles next week and week see them reverting right back to their losing ways in December tonight. Grab the points with the Redskins. We recommend a 10-unit play on Washington
Stephen Nover
100-Dime Total of the Year: Over Ravens/Steelers
60-Dime Value Chalk of the Year: Falcons
20-Dime Bowl Bonus: Kentucky
100-Dime OVER Baltimore/Pittsburgh - Baltimore-Pittsburgh matchups are traditionally low-scoring with plenty of running and fierce hitting.
But that's not going to be the case in this game. Both teams will be attacking vulnerable secondaries.
Baltimore's secondary has serious issues with two of their top three cornerbacks out, along with star safety Ed Reed. These spots are filled by role-playing backups not capable of shutting down Ben Roethlisberger and his bevy of good receiving threats.
Pittsburgh's defense hasn't been the same since losing star safety Troy Polamalu. The Steelers were 4-1 with 10 takeaways when Polamalu has played. They are 3-6 without him with just six takeaways.
Joe Flacco has become a much better quarterback than he was as a rookie last season. His completion percentage has gone from 60 to 64 percent and his touchdown throws have gone up from 14 to 19. He also has thrown fewer interceptions than last year.
Making it tough on the defenses, too, is they have to respect their opponent's ground attack. Ray Rice is one of the best all-purpose backs in the NFL, while Pittsburgh's Rashard Mendenhall has developed as an emerging force. He needs just 22 yards to reach 1,000. He's averaging nearly five yards a carry.
Weather can be a problem this late in the year in Pittsburgh. But while there is a chance of snow, temperatures are supposed to be in the 30s with winds just 5-10 mph.
60-Dime Atlanta Falcons - Despite really having no chance of making the playoffs, the Falcons desperately want to win this game and their finale against Tampa Bay on the road next week so they can finish 9-7.
If that occurs, the Falcons would finish above .500 for two years in a row, something they've never accomplished in their 44-year history.
The Falcons are so serious about that they're risking franchise quarterback Matt Ryan, who has a toe injury. They also haven't ruled out star running back Michael Turner, although he has an ankle injury. They are willing to gamble on these key player's long-term health in order to reach this goal.
Turner isn't likely to play, but his replacements can gouge a Buffalo defense that ranks last versus the run.
But this isn't just a play ON Atlanta. It's also a huge play AGAINST Buffalo.
The Bills won't make the playoffs for the 10th straight year. They've played their three division rivals during the past four weeks and finish at home against Indianapolis in a game that could get a lot of media attention if the Colts are in position to go undefeated.
So this is a real flat spot for the Bills traveling to a dome stadium in a warm-weather city after a hard-fought home division loss to hated rival New England.
The Bills have been decimated by injuries and now they're down to third-string quarterback Brian Brohm. If you thought Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards were bad, wait until you see Brohm. He makes Fitzpatrick and Edwards look like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.
Brohm was a second-round pick of the Green Bay Packers two years ago. He was so bad - trouble reading defenses, holding the ball too long and being unable to adjust to the speed of the pro game - the Packers cut him.
Packers general manager Ted Thompson almost never cuts a rookie. For him to cut a second-round draft choice after just one season tells you all you need to know.
Making it really tough for Brohm, in this his first NFL start, is Buffalo has a makeshift offensive line because of multiple injuries.
20-Dime Kentucky Wildcats - If Clemson could have stopped Georgia Tech on the final drive in the ACC title game, the Tigers would be competing in a BCS bowl instead of this Music City Bowl in Nashville.
Clemson isn't excited about this game and neither are its fans. Ticket sales have been 4-to-1 in favor of Kentucky.
The Wildcats are a very live 'dog. They are battle-tested being in the SEC where they faced many of the top-skill position players in the nation. Despite being in the toughest conference and dealing with multiple injuries, the Wildcats still managed seven victories.
Now the Wildcats are healthy. One of the players they have back from injury is senior quarterback Mike Hartline. He gives the Wildcats a passing presence to go with mobile Morgan Newton.
Kentucky has a balanced attack. The Wildcats averaged 193 yards rushing per game and their offensive line only allowed 15 sacks. Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb give Kentucky a solid 1-2 running punch. Cobb averages 6.4 yards per carry and also is an excellent pass catcher. Locke averages 4.8 yards per run and is a dangerous kick returner.
Underdogs have been golden so far in the bowls. This matchup should prove no exception. Kentucky has won its bowl game each of the last three years. The Wildcats are 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 non-conference games. Clemson, by contrast, has failed to cover the past four years in its bowl games, losing straight-up the past three seasons.
The Wildcats are excited about this game. The same can't be said for Clemson. If Kentucky can keep dangerous C.J. Spiller in check and not commit turnovers, it should win this game straight-up.
MR EAST
NCAAB SUNDAY BOOKIE BUSTER
IONA GAELS @ UCONN HUSKIES
3 UNITS: IONA GAELS +16
The oddsmakers really love this Uconn team, and keep making them lay huge numbers against teams they are struggling with. Iona has already won fairly easily at both Creighton, and Providence, and played Florida St. to the wire, and took Baylor to overtime. This is not a team that should be getting mid-teens worth of points vs a Uconn team that can't put away anyone. You can go down the list, Maine,Central Florida,Hofstra,William &Mary, and Colgate, Uconn is so overrated it is insane. They have covered just 1 game all season. They have been posted as a 10+ favorite 5 times, and stand at 0-5 ATS, and have yet to come within 9.5 points of the cover. I'll go with Iona here.
Street Rosenthal
*500 Buffalo Bills +9
*300 Houston Texans +1
*200 Arizona Cardinals -14
*500 Kentucky +7
Great Lakes Sports
NFL
4* Cleveland
4* Miami
NBA
4* Miami
3* Cleveland
3* Denver
John Fina
GOY Bills +9.5
Steve Duemig
30 Dime - Redskins
This is a classic end of season over inflated visiting favorite lined game. There are SOOOOO many red flags in this one it is not even funny. As we all know, things don't always turn out the way we want them to or think they should. If we could win all of them we would all own our own island somewhere in the South Pacific. We don't own our own island, at least I don't....yet so we have to dance with what brung us and that is sticking with basic handicapping, especially with the type of red flags we are seeing in this one. First off Dallas is in a must win, so that doesn't mean they are going to win, especially on the road against a division rival. Remember Dallas had to win the season finale last year on the road and got bombed!!! What other flags do we have. Over inflation of the line! No way should Dallas be laying a TD on the road against a division opponent. Hell the Giants were only laying 3 in this very same spot last week. Are we now to believe that the Cowboys are that much better than the Giants?? No they aren't! Washington looked so bad last week and that is what people are remembering and Dallas is coming off of beating the Saints. The Cowboys felt disrespected going into NO and rightfully so, but that's no the case in this one. All of these factors are contributing to the inflation of the line. Now add in our old favorite of "reverse line move" 83% of spread bets and ALL of the "junk bets" are on Dallas, yet the line went down from 7.5 to the current position. Boys and girls. This is the epitome of LINE VALUE and + EV
10 Dime - Texans
think we all could agree that this game is between two evenly matched teams right? Glad you agree. We have two "must win" teams playing in a game where the loser will be eliminated from playoff contention, and therefore the opener in the game was strictly the HFA for Miami at -3. Therefore creating the "even" match on a neutral field. What is it then that we look for in these types of match ups. First off, who is better in the trenches? EVEN Who has the edge at QB? Houston does. Who has the more explosive play makers? Houston does. Who is more experienced? Neither really. Miami went to the playoffs last year based off of two things. Turnover ratio which was big time in their favor last year and NOT this year. As a matter of fact it is the opposite. The Dolphins also had the experienced QB in Pennington last year. They have Chad Henne this year. But the biggest reason we are going strongly with the Texans is something that I noticed yesterday while watching the money flow and the lines on my screen. At 3:35 yesterday afternoon the line was at Miami -3 where it had been all week. Then at 3:36 the line was all of a sudden Miami -1 !!!!! Do you know how much money it takes to move off a 3 with two perceived even teams??? A TON!! It's either that or someone who is highly respected as a bettor pulled the trigger on the Texans in a big way. It was probably both. The next thing that I then looked for was some buy back in case it wasn't what I thought it was. There wasn't and so I am convinced that someone either has some info that we don't have or they are willing to trust their handicapping in a BIG WAY. I'm not proud, and I know what to look for and why a line moves like this. Want the latest example of this type of line move and how it did? You don't have to go back very far. Christmas night is when the Chargers were getting 3 from the Titans. During the day it went crashing down to +1. Who won that game?????? WE will "follow the money " on this one.
5 Dime - Ravens
The Steeler were all but out of it until the last second thrwo by Big Ben rose them from the depths of missing the playoffs to still being alive, barely. But that game showed me a lot about what the Steelers really are this year. Not all that good folks. They continue to give up 4th quarter leads. They got so bad in protecting the lead that their opwn coach put his head on the line by trying an onside kick to avoid not giving the ball back to GB. We all know what happened there and GB did get the ball and they proceeded to march down the field for the apparent game winning score. But Big Ben had other plans and he was able to rally the troops. Simply put though folks, good teams do not continue to do these types of things in the 4th quarter. This is no longer an accidental occurrence, it is what the Steelers are. The Ravens on the other hand have won when and beaten teams while sitting on the edge of extinction as well. But they are winning with authority and they ARE THE BETTER TEAM. The wrong team is favored in this one based only on the Steelers being the Super Bowl champs. Bah!!! Oh and one other thing. The explanation that I gave you for the above Houston- Miami game is the same reason in this one. One of the books went off the -3 yesterday and as I write this, it is still under the 3 and with no buy back it tells me what I need to know. I think that it must be pointed out though that the opener was -2 and then moved to -3. That could be two reasons, first, positioon taking in case it rose above the 3, or to get it out of the teaser window Ravens are not only the better team here, they are who the better bettors like as well.
3GWINS
NFL FOOTBALL:
10* GAME of the Week: BALTIMORE +3
5* NY Jets +4
4* Carolina +9
4* TB +14
COLLEGE FOOTBALL:
5* Clemson -6.5
NBA & College HOOPS:
passing
ICEMAN HOCKEY:
4* Vancouver +125
Pittsburgh's defense is in big trouble here as they have been torched for over 20 points in 4 of their last 5 games, including 27 or more against the Raiders, the Chiefs and the Packers. You start seeing the Raiders and Chiefs putting up 27 on you, then you know you have problems especially in the secondary. This Baltimore Ravens team is playing very well as they come off 48-3 destruction at home over the Lions, and a 31-7 win over the Bears. Already this year on the road they have beaten the Chargers 31-26 and for all intents and purposes let wins get away at Minnesota, and New England in tight games.Baltimore is the better team. They have a better offense and they are playing very well down the stretch. This Ravens team appears primed to make some noise heading into post-season. Baltimore won first meeting with defensive formula that can work again.
Psychic
2 unit Oakland +3
3 unit Houston +2 (best bet)
3 unit New Orleans -14 (best bet)
3 unit Ny Jets +4.5 (best bet)
4 unit Washington +7 (major)
5 unit Denver +7 (wiseguy)
3 unit Clemson -6.5 (best bet)
LARRY NESS
AFC GOM NY Jets
Caldwell and the Colts say they aren't going to let up. That's all well and good but the fact is that they ARE likely to give some key players some rest and that the Jets ARE going to go all out for a victory. Caldwell had this to say: "The thing about this next game is how we're going to play depends on the health of our team and what it looks like. Now, the health of our team also could include getting them rested and ready as well. That's part of that, but it also may mean some injuries here or there. That may dictate some changes in the lineup." Jets coach Ryan speculated the following: "We're going to start with the injury report, obviously. "Manning, (Dallas) Clark, (Joseph) Addai, Reggie Wayne, (Dwight) Freeney, (Robert) Mathis, (Gary) Brackett - all those guys will not play." In reality, Ryan and the Jets aren't likely to be that fortunate. Still, they should give the Colts all they can handle and very possibly more. The Jets are off a tough loss but they're still a quality team and they're still very much alive in the race. The Jets have the league's top-rated rushing offense, which should give them an edge against a Colts rush defense which is ranked 16th. The Jets, who have limited opponents to a total of only 32 points over the last four games, are also tough on the other side of the ball, particuarly against the pass. In fact, New York has the top-ranked pass defense in the league. Five of the Colts last eight games were decided by four or less and the Jets have only lost one of their last 10 by more than five. Grab the points. *10
Blowout GOW Philadelphia
The Broncos were a great story early in the year. As the saying goes, that was then, this is now. With last week's home loss to the Raiders, this is a team that has now lost two in a row and six of their last eight. Those six losses came by an average of 15.5 points. Other than last week's 1-point setback vs. the Raiders, all five losses came by double-digits. If the Broncos couldn't win a home game vs. the Raiders, there chances of winning at Philadelphia are slim indeed. The Eagles, 15-5 their last 20 December home games, have won five straight overall, covering each of the last three. They won those three games by an average margin of 35.3 to 19.3. Their last three December home games (1 this year, 2 last year) have resulted in scores of 30-10, 44-6 and 27-13. The Broncos running attack has stalled in recent weeks and they'll be without receiver Eddie Royal. The Broncos need this game to stay alive in the playoff race. The Eagles need it too though, as a win here puts them in the driver's seat for the NFC East title and keeps them alive for the #2 overall seed in the NFC. The return of Dawkins and to a lesser extent Buckhalter may provide Denver with an emotional boost to begin the game. It won't be enough though. Andy Reid noted: "Our team understands that we're not playing Buck and Dawk, but we're playing the Denver Broncos. They know that they need to study the team as opposed to studying those two players and that's what they are going to do." The Eagles are currently better on both sides of the ball. They've got the much better QB, the better coach and they're playing at home. Line has dropped providing extra value. This should be one-sided. *8 Philadelphia
#1 NFC East Total Was/Dal Under
The Redskins are off an awful defensive performance on National TV last Monday. That has stuck in the memories of bettors which has worked to help keep tonight's number generously high. The current number is even slightly larger than it was for the earlier meeting. That earlier meeting wasn't exactly a shootout. The score was 3-0 at halftime and the final was 7-6. That was at Dallas but the previous meeting here at Washington was also of the low-scoring variety. The final score was 14-10 in favor of the Redsksins. The 2007 game here at Washington, also played in late December, finished with 33 points, a 27-6 win by the home team. As bad as the Redskins looked last week and have been this season, their defense has been largely respectable. Before last week's debacle, they'd only allowed 18.5 points per game at home. The problem has been the offense. The Skins are scoring only 16.7 points per game at home and 15.2 in their divisional games. Things won't get any easier against a Dallas defense that is clicking on all cylinders. The Cowboys have held six of their last seven opponents to 20 points or less. That includes high-scoring teams like Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Diego and New Orleans! Six of their last seven have dipped below the number. Looking at a couple of other o/u stats finds that the Under has gone 6-1 the last few years when Dallas has played against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Also, the Under has gone 10-4 the last 14 times that the Redskins were playing with revenge from an earlier loss and 10-4 when they were home dogs in 3.5 to 7 range. *10 Under
Gameday
5* NY Giants -7.5
2* Pittsburgh -3
2* Philly -7
1* Kentucky +7
ATS LOCK
6 Units Pitt -2.5
6 Units Cincy -13
6 Units Kentucky +6.5
4 Units NE -9.5