SIXTH SENSE
BEST BETS
YTD 41-38 -2.70% Not counting Friday night win
3% SAN DIEGO/TENNESSEE OVER 47.5 W
3% GREEN BAY -14 No higher than -14
3% CINCINNATI -13 Only less than -14
3% NY GIANTS -7
3% NEW ENGLAND -7.5
3% SAN FRANCISCO -12.5
GREEN BAY -14 Seattle 42
Seattle was terrible last week, getting blown out at home by lowly TB, 24-7. They rushed for 5.1ypr to 3.9ypr for TB but threw for just 5.4yps and allowed TB 7.9yps. Overall they were out gained 5.7yppl to 5.3yppl and those numbers were only that close because Seattle threw the ball 21 more times. They were also intercepted four times. GB rushed for 5.0ypr and threw for 7.7yps but allowed Pittsburgh to throw for 472 yards at 9.3yps. They shut down the Steelers running game, allowing just 3.4ypr. Seattle averages just 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.5yps against 6.4yps and 4.9yppl against 5.5yppl. They also allow 6.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. Packers average 6.8yps against 6.4yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense allows just 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Numbers favor GB by 14 and predict about 47 points. Seattle qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 83-42-6 and GB qualifies in a negative situation based on their poor defensive performance last week, which is 88-42-4 and plays against GB here. But, the Packers also qualify in a late season scheduling situation, which is 124-64-1. The situations for both teams are all pretty solid situations. The line is fair and team history for this year suggests this game will not be close. I use a few different indicators to rate teams. Both of those indicators rate GB as the 7th best team in the league. Seattle has faced five good offenses on the road this year and allowed at least 31 points in each of those games for an average of 34 points. Seattle has managed just 12 points per game on the road against the above average defenses they have faced. GB has only faced one bad team at home, Detroit, and won that 26-0. As I have said all year, GB is talented and when they play teams that are clearly inferior to GB, their talent shines through. GB should get to at least 30 points in this game and I don’t see Seattle getting to 17 points. GREEN BAY 35 SEATTLE 13
CLEVELAND -3.5 Oakland 38
Oakland went to Denver and rushed their way to an upset victory. They rushed for 241 yards at 7.1ypr while holding Denver to just 2.9ypr. They only threw for 3.4yps and allowed Denver 6.9yps. Overall, they out gained Denver 5.4yppl to 5.2yppl. Cleveland gained 417 yards at KC and rushed for 351 yards at 7.2ypr. They allowed KC 168 yards at 5.6ypr. They also allowed KC to throw for 323 yards at 7.9yps. They only passed for 66 yards at 3.7yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.9yppl to 6.2yppl but had two kick returns for touchdowns as well. Oakland averages just 4.5yps against 5.9yps and 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.2yps against 6.6yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl. Similar poor numbers for Cleveland. They average 4.2yps against 5.9yps and 4.2yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.2yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. Numbers favor Cleveland by 2.5 points and predict about 34 points. If Oakland would become a dog of four or more points, Cleveland would qualify in a very strong letdown situation, which is 108-37-3 and would play against the Browns here. Tough game to call with Derek Anderson and Charlie Frye quarterbacking for Cleveland and Oakland. I would consider the Raiders as a Best Bet if I could get four or more points. Oakland at least has some quality wins this year over Denver, Philadelphia and Cincinnati. OAKLAND 20 CLEVELAND 17
CINCINNATI -13 Kansas City 40.5
KC lost at home last week to Cleveland but they moved the ball on offense and actually stopped the Cleveland passing game. They just couldn’t stop the rushing game. They allowed the Browns to gain 351 yards rushing at 7.2ypr. They did rush for 168 yards themselves at 5.6ypr and threw for another 323 yards at 7.9yps while holding Cleveland to just 66 yards at 3.7yps. Overall they out gained Cleveland 6.9yppl to 6.2yppl but allowed two kick off returns for touchdowns. Cincinnati lost a tough game at SD but played well. They rushed for 114 yards at 5.4ypr and held SD to 3.5ypr. They also threw for 293 yards at 7.0yps but did allow a good SD team to throw for 296 at 7.4yps. Overall, they out gained SD 6.5yppl to 6.1yppl. KC averages just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.9yps against 6.1yps and 4.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Cincinnati averages just 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl and allows just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 15.5 points and predict about 42 points. Cincinnati qualifies in a late season scheduling situation, which is 103-58-2. The dog is now 13-1 ATS in Cincinnati games and they are 0-6 ATS as a favorite. KC has allowed 41 or more points in three of their last four games. On the road this year against above .500 teams they have lost by 14, 20 and 29 points, allowing an average of 38 points per game. They scored 14 points each at SD and Philadelphia but managed 24 at Baltimore. But, in that Baltimore game special teams and turnovers gave them a large majority of those points. Cincinnati has recently played a couple of bad teams at home and failed to cover the number, winning by just nine points over Cleveland and ten points over Detroit but they are in a good spot here against a team that is really struggling to stop teams on the ground. There’s enough value along with the situation to make a play on Cincinnati here. CINCINNATI 34 KANSAS CITY 13
ATLANTA -9 Buffalo 41
Atlanta got the win at NY last week but they were out played at the line of scrimmage. They managed just 4.5yps while allowing the Jets to average 6.3yps although one long pass play accounted for most the Jets passing yards. Overall, they were out gained 4.7yppl to 3.8yppl. Take away the one long passing play and the Jets would have averaged only about 3.7yppl. Buffalo lost at home to NE but they out played NE from the line of scrimmage. They out rushed NE 4.6ypr to 3.2ypr but were out passed 5.0yps to 4.1yps thanks to six sacks. Overall they out gained NE 4.3yppl to 3.9yppl. Buffalo averages just 5.2yps against 6.3yp and 4.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. Atlanta averages 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense they allow 7.1yps against 6.4yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl. Numbers favor Atlanta by 6.5 points and predict about 37 points. Situations going both ways here. Atlanta qualifies in a let down situation after their upset last week, which is 58-29-1 and plays against the Falcons but they also qualify in a late season scheduling situation, which is 124-64-1. Situations go both ways and Buffalo will likely start Brian Brohm at quarterback this week as they are down to their third quarterback. Michael Turner most likely doesn’t play in this game. Buffalo also put Jarius Byrd on IR this week as well. If Brohm wasn’t starting I would consider Buffalo in this spot but as is I will just lean their way. ATLANTA 21 BUFFALO 17
MIAMI -3 Houston 45
Miami lost in OT to Tennessee last week. They threw for 7.4yps but allowed 8.1yps and overall gained and allowed 6.1yppl. Houston won only 16-13 at lowly St. Louis but they out gained Houston 367-149 passing and 419-237 total yards. They out passed the Rams 8.5yps to 5.5yps and 6.3yppl to 4.5yppl. Houston averages just 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr but 7.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 6.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl, making their defense just about average. Miami averages just 5.5yps against 5.9yps but that is a huge improvement from earlier in the year. Overall, they average 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 7.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Miami by .5 point and predict about 51 points. Miami qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 561-423-30. That situation does not perform as well late in the season. Value lies with Houston and situation lies with Miami. Can’t trust Miami as a favorite against a team I believe is as good, if not better than them. I’d like to consider the over but the Texans aren’t scoring a ton of points lately. HOUSTON 27 MIAMI 24
NY GIANTS -7 Carolina 42
Carolina played inspired football last week and destroyed the Vikings, 26-7. They out rushed Minnesota 124-41, although just 3.1ypr to 2.9ypr but out passed them 7.8yps to 6.3yps. Overall, they were even at 5.3yppl each only because Carolina ran the ball a lot more times to bring down their overall numbers. The Giants did their own destroying of the Redskins, 45-12. They were out rushed 5.2ypr to 3.8ypr but out passed Washington 8.5yps to 5.6yps and 6.2yppl to 5.5yppl. Carolina averages 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr but just 5.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl overall. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr but just 6.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl overall. The Giants average 7.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense allows just 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. Numbers favor the Giants by 9.5 points and predict about 48 points. Giants qualify in a late season scheduling situation, which is 124-64-1. Other than last week when was the last time the Giants played a team with a current record of less than .500? You would have to go all the way back to October 11th when they defeated Oakland 44-7. It was eight straight games against teams at .500 or better. Matter of fact, against teams below .500, the Giants have won by 6, 24, 11, 37 and 33 points. The first game they won by six against Washington they held a 13 point lead before allowing a late score to Washington at the end of the game. Carolina isn’t terrible but on the road against above .500 teams they have lost by 14, 10 and 10 points. They also lost by 10 at the Jets (.500) and won by 13 at Arizona (above .500). Plenty of value and a solid situation in their favor make this a strong play. NY GIANTS 31 CAROLINA 17
NEW ORLEANS -14 Tampa Bay 49
TB rocked Seattle on the road last week 24-7. They fell behind 7-0 but then scored the games last 24 points. They were out rushed 5.1ypr to 3.9ypr but out passed Seattle 7.9yps to 5.4yps and out gained them overall 5.7yppl to 5.3yppl. They also intercepted Seattle four times. The Saints were upset at home by Dallas and out played at the line of scrimmage. They did out rushed Dallas 5.0ypr to 4.0ypr but lost the yardage battle, 65-145. They were out passed 7.9yps to 5.5yps and overall 6.0yppl to 5.4yppl. TB averages 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 4.7yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. The Saints average 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 8.0yps against 6.3yps and 6.5yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl. Numbers favor NO by 19 points and predict about 53 points. I don’t have any situations on this game. A great game for NO to get healthy. They defeated TB 38-7 earlier in the year and should be able to score plenty of points here. NEW ORLEANS 37 TAMPA BAY 17
NEW ENGLAND -7.5 Jacksonville 43.5
Jacksonville rushed for 139 yards at 4.1ypr and allowed just 61 yards at 2.7ypr to Indy last week but they were beaten pretty badly in the passing game, 10.3yps to 4.9yps. Overall, they were out gained 7.0yppl to 4.5yppl. NE won at Buffalo but they were less than impressive in doing so. They were out rushed 4.6ypr to 3.2ypr but out passed Buffalo 5.0yps to 4.1yps. Overall they were out gained 4.3yppl to 3.9yppl. They did record six sacks. Jacksonville averages 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr but a whopping 7.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. NE averages just 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr but 7.0yps against 5.9yps and 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense allows 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. Numbers favor NE by 13 points and predict about 44 points. Jacksonville qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 561-423-30 but that situation doesn’t perform well late in the year. NE qualifies in a late season scheduling situation, which is 103-58-2. Situations go both ways here but the stronger situation favors NE who also has a ton of value in this game. Jacksonville hasn’t played many tough teams this year but they have played a few close games against decent teams. NE certainly isn’t the NE of old but they are tough at home five of their last six games at home by at least 10 points. The other win, over Baltimore, was by six points. This should be a good match up for the Patriots, who have handily defeated Jacksonville over the years. They throw the ball well and Jacksonville doesn’t stop the pass well. NEW ENGLAND 31 JACKSONVILLE 14
PITTSBURGH -2.5 Baltimore 42
Baltimore destroyed Chicago but who hasn’t recently. They won 31-7 and the only touchdown they allowed was a punt return. They out passed Chicago 6.3yps to 2.9yps and 5.2yppl to 3.4yppl. Pittsburgh allowed GB 376 yards passing at 7.7yps and 436 yards total at 7.1yppl but they gained 472 yards passing at 9.3yps and 537 at 7.7yps on their way to an exciting 37-36 win. Baltimore averages 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. Pittsburgh averages 7.2yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. Numbers favor the Ravens by two points and predict about 42 points. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Going back to 2002, Pittsburgh is now just 2-15 ATS when laying four or less points after failing to cover in this role last week. I’d love to play Baltimore in this game but will just lean their way. Plenty of line value along with history on Pittsburgh’s side of not being able to cover these types of numbers. BALTIMORE 24 PITTSBURGH 21
PHILADELPHIA -7 Denver 41.5
Denver simply got out played last week against Oakland. They couldn’t put the Raiders away early and it cost them. They allowed Oakland to rush for 241 yards at 7.1yps and gained just 2.9ypr. They did throw for 6.9yps and allowed just 3.4yps. Overall, they were out gained 5.4yppl to 5.2yppl. Phlly smoked SF 27-13 as they were out rushed 5.9ypr to 3.5ypr but out passed SF 7.8yps to 4.2yps, including intercepting three passes. Overall they out gained SF 5.9yppl to 4.7yppl. Denver is very average on offense at 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense remains solid against the pass at 5.1yps against 6.4yps. Overall, they allow just 4.7yppl against 5.4yppl. Philly averages 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl being above average against both, the run and the pass. Numbers favor Philly by six points and predict about 44 points. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Tough spot for Denver here but I’ll call for them to keep this game close. PHILADELPHIA 24 DENVER 20
ARIZONA -14 St Louis 43
Arizona struggled a bit at Detroit last week. They won 31-24 but allowed the lowly Lions to rush for 161 yards at 6.0ypr. They rushed for 4.5ypr and threw for 5.7yps while limiting Detroit to just 3.7yps. Overall, they out gained the Lions 5.2yppl to 4.7yppl. The Rams played a close game against Houston but were beaten pretty badly on the field. They were out passed 8.5yps to 5.5yps and out gained overall 6.3yppl to 4.5yppl. The Rams average 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr but just 4.9yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.3yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Arizona averages just 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. Their rush defense has gotten worse as the season has progressed. Numbers favor Arizona by 17 points and predict about 37 points. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Arizona has rolled over the Rams the last two years here by scores of 48-19 and 34-10. In addition, they were rolling over the Rams earlier this year when Warner got hurt right before halftime and that allowed the Rams to sneak in with a back door cover. I don’t see the Rams competing much in this game. ARIZONA 27 ST LOUIS 10
SAN FRANCISCO -12.5 Detroit 41.5
Detroit played tough last week with limited resources. They lost 31-24 but managed to rush for 161 yards at 6.0ypr. They allowed Arizona 4.5ypr. But, they threw for just 3.7yps and allowed 5.7yps. Overall, they were out gained 5.2yppl to 4.7yppl. SF lost 27-13 at Philly and struggled with four turnovers, including three interceptions. They out rushed Philly 5.9ypr to 3.5ypr but were out passed 7.8yps to 4.2yps. Overall, they were out gained 5.9yppl to 4.7yppl. The Lions are simply bad, averaging 4.9yps against 6.1yps and 4.6yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is allowing 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.5yps against 6.3yps and 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. SF averages 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr but just 5.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. Numbers favor SF by 15 points and predict about 43 points. The 49ers qualify in late season scheduling situations, which are 103-58-2 and 124-64-1. SF is out of the playoff race but Mike Singletary said he wants to get every last bit out of his team, especially Alex Smith, in these last two games to give him as good an idea as possible heading into next year. These last two games against the Lions and Rams are the perfect set up for SF. They are a physical team who should easily control the game against these poor teams. SF, not only can control the ground game, but they can also use their skill position players to throw the ball against these teams as well. Detroit is without Matthew Stafford and Kevin Smith. Drew Stanton gets his first NFL start this week. The Lions have lost by 18, 24, 26, 12, 17, 10 and 45 points this year. I can’t see SF allowing them to score many points in this game and SF should control the game on the ground and go up top when they want to get the necessary scores for the cover here. SAN FRANCISCO 31 DETROIT 10
INDIANAPOLIS -5 NY Jets 40.5
The Jets out played Atlanta last week but couldn’t convert their yards into points and botched field goals dominated the game. They out passed Atlanta 6.3yps to 4.5yps and out gained Atlanta 4.7yppl to 3.8yppl. They did have one long pass play and without that play would have averaged just 3.7yppl. Indy went to Jacksonville and survived 35-31. They were out rushed 4.1ypr to 2.7ypr but out passed Jacksonville 10.3yps to 4.9yps and 7.0yppl to 4.5yppl overall. The Jets average just 5.8yps against 6.4yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.7yps against 6.1yps and 4.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Indy averages just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr but 7.6yps against 6.4yps and 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense has been great allowing just 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers favor Indy by eight points and predict about 40 points. The Jets qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 561-423-30 but that situation doesn’t perform as well late in the season. Indianapolis qualifies in a late season scheduling situation, which is 124-64-1. Just like last week, the value lies with Indy because of the unknown amount of playing time for the starters. The situations go both ways but the stronger situation lies with Indy. To tough to call without knowing the playing status for Indy. With that in mind, I will lean slightly towards the dog because I believe the starters will play a little less this week, but just enough at the right times to attempt to come away with a SU win. INDIANAPOLIS 21 NY JETS 17
Dallas -6.5 WASHINGTON 42
Dallas got a big win at NO last week as they out passed the Saints 7.9yps to 5.5yps and overall 6.0yppl to 5.4yppl. Washington got blown out on Monday night at home against the Giants 45-12. They were out passed 8.5yps to 5.6yps and 6.2yppl to 5.5yppl overall. Dallas averages 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.3yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is average at 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. Washington averages just 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense is allowing 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.8yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. Numbers favor Dallas by 5.5 points and predict about 35 points. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Dallas has won just once in Washington over the last ten seasons by more than six points, including losing the last four games here. They struggled in the earlier game at Dallas as well, winning 7-6. Dallas has also only won one road game by more than seven points this year and that was the first game of the season at TB. Washington was brutal last week but they have played well at home this year. Line inflated based on both teams results last week. DALLAS 20 WASHINGTON 16
Rainman
5* New Orleans
5* Green Bay
3* Kansas City
3* Baltimore
1* San Francisco
MONTE WINS
2000* SYNDICATE MAX OUT - RAVENS +3
I am backing the Baltimore Ravens as my Sunday NFL 2000* Syndicate Max Out Selection. I am basically betting against the Steelers in this spot .Pittsburgh won on a Miracle/Lucky play on the last play of the game to beat the Packers last week. The Steelers were very close to having lost 6 straight games. However they prevailed against the Packers and somehow still have playoff hopes. They have a Huge game Today against the Ravens and Frankly I feel Pittsburgh has no shot of Winning this game! You don't lose 5 straight games in the NFL on bad luck, your just a bad team and that's what Pittsburgh is! The Steelers have lost to some terrible teams, Cleveland, Oakland and Kansas City. The Steelers defense has banged up and the Ravens can exploit that! I expect the Ravens Ray Rice to have a huge game! The Ravens have scored 79 points in their last 2 games and are playing some good offensive football. This game also falls into a System that I have used with success over the last 3 years. The Steelers are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 1/2 to 3 Points & 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 1/2 to 3 Points! Let's also make a note that the Ravens are 6-2 ATS as Dog's of 1/2 to 3 Points in their last 8 games in that situation. Let's Grab the 3 Points and Make this our 2000* Syndicate Max Out - Ravens +3
2000* MAX OUT TEASER
2 Teams - 7 points
GIANTS -2 & NEW ENGLAND -3
1000* SYNDICATE - REDSKINS +7
I am backing the Redskins as my Sunday Night 1000* Syndicate Selection. I will make this short and Sweet! Dallas Beats the Saints Pretty Bad on National TV & the Giants "Man-Handle" the Redskins on Monday Night Football. Now they very Next Week the Cowboys on Extra Rest play the Redskins on short rest! So it's that Simple to make money betting the NFL in December right? DEAD WRONG! That line has sat at 7 points with 80% of the Public hammering Dallas. Here are the Facts, Dallas should be flat after defeating the previously undefeated Saints and by the way, Dallas Still Sucks in December! Redskins were embarrassed on National TV! They have to man up now and play for respect on National TV again. I am sure there were some fired up Washington veterans after Monday's game. This is a Trap game for the Cowboys Bettors, Don't get Sucked in! Let's take the Home Dog Redskins tonight! 1000* Syndicate - Redskins +7
POINT TRAIN
10-Unit NFL GAME OF THE YEAR
NY Giants (-7) over Carolina
New York is on the outside looking in at a playoff spot right now. They are one game behind the Cowboys and Packers with two games to play. Since their bye week in mid-November, the Giants are 3-2, losing closely to the Broncos and the Eagles. They got a huge win against the Redskins on Monday night in their last game. They need this win to stay in contention and they get the Panthers in a let-down situation here on the road. Go with the Giants to win big.
Carolina defeated the Vikings last week at home, 26-7. They were losing 7-6 in the 4th quarter before piling on 20 points late. That win puts them in a good situation to bet-against. They would’ve likely been a double digit underdog had they lost to the Vikings, now they are just a 7 point dog on the road against a playoff battling team. They’ve had their share of problems on the road. They’ve lost three straight on the road by an average of 10.3 PPG (no games were within 7 points). They are going to be without starting QB Delhomme and back-up Matt Moore (who started last week) is nursing an injured shoulder but is likely to play. Starting RB DeAngelo Williams is also out so backup Jonathon Stewart will get the majority of the carries.
Carolina has the 26th ranked rush defense in the NFL. That will prove to be costly against the Giants, who boast two starting caliber backs; Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs has 834 yards and 5 touchdowns while Bradshaw has rushed for 712 and 7 touchdowns. If Carolina manages to slow down their running attack, then we have strong faith that Eli Manning will take over with his bevy of receiving weapons. If it weren’t for Eli’s brother, Peyton, Eli would have a strong case for MVP this season. He’s completing over 60% of his passes for 3584 yards with 26 touchdowns and just 11 picks.
Carolina is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. New York is 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. win. The favorite in this series is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and we expect these trends to continue. Go with New York.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
8* (Regular Play) OVER the total in Pittsburgh vs Baltimore
Pittsburgh’s offense caught fire last week and it led to a key win over Green Bay to keep the Steelers playoff hopes alive. That insures that Pittsburgh will bring positive energy to this key divisional home game with Baltimore today. However, the trouble for the Steelers is their defense has been impacted by injuries this season and it’s certainly appeared to take its toll. Pittsburgh has proven unable to hold leads late in games as the defense definitely seems to be worn down! The Steelers have gone over the total in four of their last five games and they’re facing a Ravens offense that has additional confidence from scoring a total of 79 points the last two weeks.
While it is true that the recent big wins for Baltimore came against weaker opposition but that is still a tremendous boost for a team’s confidence and the Ravens will take advantage of a Pittsburgh defense that truly has been a shell of it’s former self. Although cold at Heinz Field today, the winds will be light with no precipitation so the weather conditions are ideal for points early and often in this one. The Steelers are 8-2 to the over when revenging a loss versus an opponent while the Ravens are 7-1 to the over as a road dog of 3 points or less. These two trends stretch back over the last three seasons and provide us with combined ATS support of 15-3 (83%) to the over in this one. Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh as an 8* Regular Play selection.
10* (TOP PLAY) New York Jets (+) @ Indianapolis
The feeling here is that we’re going to see quite a few guys sitting out and/or getting plenty of rest in this game. Until the #1 seed in the AFC was sewn up it was justifiable for the Colts to keep giving it their all. That said, Indianapolis still barely even got by Jacksonville last week as it took a late TD for the Colts to get the four point win. Their prior game was a 12 point win over Denver but Indy was outgained in the game. The week before that was a 10 point win over Tennessee but the Colts were again outgained in that game! Before that win over the Titans, the Colts did beat the Texans but Houston held the yardage edge in that one. Prior to that it was a two point win for Indianapolis over Baltimore in a game the Ravens clearly should have won outright. Honestly, if you look at back at all the stats and/or scores from Indianapolis the last 8 weeks you simply will not be all that impressed. Yes, the Colts are undefeated but they were blowing teams away early in the season. Now, it’s a fierce battle each week just for the Colts to remain unbeaten. Amazingly, the Colts have managed to continue to not only sneak out wins but also they’ve often snuck out the point spread covers as well. That’s not likely to continue here.
It’s official, the Colts have locked up everything there is to lock up and there’s just two weeks left in the regular season. How can they risk guys getting hurt in a spot like this? Simple answer, they can not. The Colts certainly will play many starters here but anyone hurting (even with a minor injury) is likely to sit. The other issue for Indianapolis here is that the match-up edges are also favorable toward the Jets. If anybody is built well to beat the Colts when they are less than 100% physically and mentally (Indy is looking ahead to post-season), it’s the Jets. New York has been rock solid against the pass this season which is what the Colts like to do. Defensively, Indianapolis has a tendency to struggle against the run which should allow the Jets physical offensive line to open up holes for the running game. This will alleviate pressure on the passing attack of the Jets and allow New York to try and control this game with their defense and a ground-based ball-control offense. We like this formula for the Jets (still alive in the playoff chase) against a Colts team that is finally in “slow-down” mode in advance of the post-season. The line has been dropping but there still is fantastic line value with the underdog in this one. Look for the Jets to improve to 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against AFC South opponents while the Colts drop to 13-22 ATS in home games where the total is posted anywhere between 38.5 and 42 points! Play the New York Jets plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.
SuperSportsGroup
Music City Bowl
Interessing game and matchup in this game. Kentucky has been pretty quiet this season and come to the Bowls with a 7-5 record but a 3-1 road record. Clemson comes in with an 8-5 record and 2-3 road record. Not too impressive for this team that has looked good all year. This is a tough game especially considering that Kentucky plays Clemson tough every time they meet. We are gonna lay the points here since we like this Clemson team and think they really get some revenge on Kentucky
PICK: Clemson -6.5 Game (8*)
NCAAB
Valparaiso v. Akron 2pmVal comes in to this game as a 1-7 on the road record against Akron who is 6-1 at home. Both these teams are averaging around 73 points per game. We see the UNDER as the best play here but also will be taking the points with Val.
PICK: UNDER 145.5 Game (8*)
PICK: Val +6 1H (5*)
PICK: Val +10.5 Game (5*)
San Fran v. Washington 3pm
PICK: UNDER 148 Game (7*)
Austin Peay v. Missouri 3PM
PICK: Missouri -20 Game (9*) Best Bet of the day
3 team parlay for 1* pays 6*
UNDER Missouri 149.5 Game
UNDER 131.5 UConn Game
Sacramento St +5.5 Game
NBA
Detroit v. Toronto
OK so looking at this game, the one thing that stands out is why is the line so low? Toronto at home should be at least a 7-8 point favorite here over a Detroit team that they have beaten pretty big the last few meetings. Why is this line so low then might we ask. They only conclusion is that this is a trap game. We will take a chance here with Detroit based solely on the fact that this line doesnt make sense and 95% of the public looks like they are on Toronto right now.
PICK: Detroit +3 Game (6*)
Houston v. Cleveland
Well we missed on our Houston pick last night over the Nets but once again, Houston as an 8 point dog is just too tempting for us to refuse. Looking at the previous matchups between these two teams, the Rockets have hung in tough. We will take our chances here and hope Cleveland is tired from a long roadtrip over the past week.
PICK: Houston +8 Game (9*) Best Bet of the day
PICK: UNDER 191.5 Game (5*)
San Antonio v. NY
This once again is another game that just is fishy. The Spurs who started a road trip with a 15 poitnt win over the Bucks yesterday now are 3 point favs at NY? Can NY really match up to the talent of the Spurs? We just dont see this line making any sense. We also dont like the fact that 85% of the public is on the Spurs. WE will take our chances with NY in this one.
PICK: Knicks +3 Game (7*)
Dallas v. Denver
PICK: OVER 106 1H (8*)
PICK: Denver -6.5 Game (6*)
JIM FEIST
4* Stl/Az UNDER
5* TB/Nor UNDER
Inner Circle Jax/Ne UNDER
Platinum NYJ/Ind UNDER
NSA
20* Patriots -10
20* Broncos +7
20* Mavericks +6.5
10* Dolphins -1
10* Giants -7.5
10* Jets +4
The Boooj
50 units on Clemson (-6.5) over Kentucky :grrr:
20 units on Miami (-1.5) over Houston
10 units on Jacksonville (+10) over New England
10 units on Cleveland (-7.5) over Houston
Sean Higgs
Play Title 10* GAME OF THE MONTH
Play Selected Point Spread: 4/-110
Take the NY Jets today. I pretty much liked the Jets all week. They are going to pound and pound and keep the ball away from Peyton with their run game. If this was week 4, the line would be 13, but here, the line has dropped. The public goes down in flames here. No way Manning stays out there the entire game vs a relentless Jets defense. This is the Jets Super Bowl in every aspect of the word. A must win. An undefeated opponent. This is what a player lives for. Jets get it done OUTRIGHT in Indy. NEW YORK JETS 10* GAME OF THE MONTH
Play Title 10* Houston Texans
Play Selected Point Spread: 1/104
10* Houston - We like the Texans here. They have beaten the Fish 3 stright years and 4 of 5 lifetime match-ups, with the fish winning a pre-season game. But the main reason we like the Texans is we think the fish are going to be drained. They fought all the way back to tie Tenn and then lose in OT, a game in which Henne did not play well. Now the pressure in on Miami again, with them being home. We said in the beginning of the year Houston has a breakout year, and they need this win and some help to get one step closer to the playoffs.
Play Title 5* Carolina Panthers
Play Selected Point Spread: 9/-119
5* Carolina - Maybe losing Delhomme was the best thing for the team. Matt Moore seems to be getting more comfortable with the offense, and looked very composed last week against Minny. The Carolina D looked awesome last week, and maybe they believe Moore is the future and want to start winning and building confidence for next year. A loss by the Giants pretty much sends them home. Peppers and company know this, and Fox likes beating the Giants, so look for Carolina to deliver a nice present to Manning and Tom.
Play Title 4* Cleveland Browns
Play Selected Point Spread: -3/-115
Going with the Browns at home. Raiders off a huge division win over Denver, but the value lies with Cleveland. Mike Holmgren will be taking control of the club, so every player is extremely motivated to show the new boss what they have. Browns have been playing solid football the last few weeks, and against the Raiders, they should continue that trend. Cribbs is an unbeliveable special teamer who will be responsible directly or indirectly for at least 3 scores by the offense. 4* CLEVELAND BROWNS
Play Title 4* AKRON
Play Selected Point Spread: -10.5/-104
Going with the Zips at home. A good revenge spot for the home team who is more balenced and a better defensive club. Valpo has been brutal on the road. We will take Akron to get it done. 4* AKRON
Wayne Root
4* Kentucky (+6½) over Clemson
3* VEGAS LEGEND - Denver
Al DeMarco
15 Dime - Arizona Cardinals
Is it hard for you to believe the Cardinals are such huge favorites – despite the opposition today – considering they’ve already clinched the NFC West title and realistically are the longest of long shots to earn a No. 2 seed and a 1st round bye in the playoffs? And laying over two touchdowns is even harder to swallow when you consider how poorly they’ve played the past two weeks on the road, losing at San Francisco in that 7-turnover Monday night debacle and then blowing a 17-0 halftime lead at Detroit last Sunday, needing a Kurt Warner TD pass with 1:54 remaining to squeak out a 31-24 win over the lowly Lions.
With all that being said, I love them today for three reasons. First, coach Ken Whisenhunt said immediately after the Detroit game that he is playing to win the season’s final two games; no starters will be rested. Smart man that Whisenhunt; he knows the importance of going into the playoffs on a roll.
Next reason I like them: Remember last year’s 0-2 close when the Cards got crushed by Minnesota and New England in the second- and third-to-last weeks of the regular season by a combined 82-21 score after clinching the division crown. Yes, they did make a phenomenal run to reach the Super Bowl, but Whisenhunt and the players are smart enough to realize that such things are often lightning in a bottle that isn’t easily recaptured.
Final reason I’m in the Cards’ corner today? It was just three Sundays ago in their last home game they put the hurt on Minnesota, manhandling Brett Favre and Vikings. If you can do that to Minny, you can certainly do the same – if not worse – to St. Louis.
Don’t be fooled by the Rams’ 16-13 home loss to Houston last week at home. The Texans dominated that game but allowed St. Louis to stick around and make it look good on the scoreboard because of their redzone inefficiency (one TD, two FGs in four trips inside the 20).
It doesn’t matter who quarterbacks for St. Louis today, rookie Kent Null or ineffective Kyle Boller, this is still an offense averaging about 11 points a game. The offensive line is in tatters with two new guards, and running back Steven Jackson is bothered by an assortment of injuries that have contributed to his 47- and 82-yard outings the past two weeks.
Defensively, the Rams are just what the Cards need for a playoff tune-up. Warner should carve up a pass defense that’s generated just 20 sacks in 14 games while allowing 65% completions. No surprise the secondary has been scorched for 19 TDs while coming up with only eight picks.
Warner should also get some ground support from Beanie Wells, who is coming off a career-high 110-yard effort against Detroit. The Rams also don’t stop the run, yielding 140 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry to opposing backs.
As I said, if ever there was an ideal spot for a team to get a much needed playoff tune-up against an ideal opponent, it’s today in Glendale as Arizona rolls 37-13.
Strategy Note:
You've heard me discuss this many times on TV and radio; I don't believe in buying half points on any numbers other than 3, 4 or 7 so don't for a minute think I'm recommending buying the hook on 14 1/2 (if that's the price you get today). Seriously, a lot of handicappers say to do that but I've always been of the opinion that's it's a waste of money; when the line is this big the favorite should win by a blowout margin or the dog should cover easily; there should be no in-between. And since I'm expecting and calling for a blowout, there is no need to be wasting extra money foolishly buying a hook today.
DB Sports Consultants, Inc.
7* NY Giants -8.5
5* Buffalo +8
4* Denver +7.5
3* NY Jets +3
5* Kentucky ML +220
Chris James Sports
2* Arizona Cardinals -14.5
2* Philadelphia Eagles -7
2* Washington Redskins +7
3* Kentucky +6.5