Kyle Bales
15* Carolina /NY Giants Over 42.5
10* Baltimore +3
10* Kentucky +6.5
10* Toronto -3
10* San Antonio -3
10* Akron -10.5
Lenny Del Genio
25* NFC Game of the Year New Orleans - 14
In the case of Tampa Bay, this is simply a case of playing the wrong opponent on the wrong week. Not only is this the Bucs' fifth road game in seven weeks, but they also have the unenviable task of drawing the Saints, in the Superdome, the week after they suffered their first loss of the season. Dallas showed that the key to beating New Orleans is to pressure Drew Brees. Well, TB ranks near the bottom of the league with just 26 sacks. QB Josh Freeman has a TD-INT ratio of 2-9 and the rushing attack ranks last in the league. New Orleans can essentially name the score here. They beat the Bucs 38-7 in Week 11, a game we cashed the Saints. They are still 13-6 ATS when laying points and their point differential of +185 is a NFL best. Last week, TB got just 24 points off five Seattle turnovers. They are 0-6 ATS off a road game this season. The last two seasons, the Saints are a perfect 7-0 ATS off a SU loss. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS if they lost the turnover battle by two or more the previous week. Finally, there's a system that says to play against a team playing with revenge, if they are coming off a SU win by two touchdowns or more as an underdog. As alluded to in the promo, this system is 43-17 ATS & that's over the last 25 NFL seasons! New Orleans is our 25* NFC Game of the Year.
ASA
3* Under 44, Jacksonville vs. New England
Both of these teams are still in contention for playoff berths so they will each bring their "A" game here. We tend to lean toward the "under" late in the year when teams meet up that are battling for playoff spots. We don't have to worry about the defenses take the "day off" and offenses opening it up. Teams in this spot usually stay conservative on offense.
New England has been just that in recent weeks. Quite conservative on offense. They have put up just 17, 20, 21 & 17 points over their last four games. Tom Brady is banged up with a sore shoulder and ribs. Bill Belichick will want to protect his franchise player going into the playoffs. Thus, we expect a heavy dose of the run game here. The last two weeks, vs. Buffalo and Carolina, Belichick has relied HEAVILY on the running game with 74 attempts in those two games combined. WR Randy Moss is becoming less of a deep threat with his moping attitude as of late. Brady attempted only 23 passes last week in their 17-10 win @ Buffalo. The weather forecast calls for rain and heavy wins in Boston on Sunday, thus the ground game will factor in even more for both sides.
The Jags offense is far from explosive. They average just 19 PPG and only 13 PPG on the road. David Garrard is a solid QB, however he has almost zero home run threats on the outside. Jacksonville's best offensive player is RB Maurice Jones-Drew and they will ride him until he drops. Jones-Drew ran the ball 27 times vs. Indy in their last game and those numbers will probably rise here. Head coach Jack Del Rio is definitely not a "pass first" coach. In fact, the Jags have stayed under 30 pass attempts in 6 of their last 8 games.
Due to the windy conditions expected and significance of this game, expect it to be played close to the vest. Run, run, run which eats up the clock. The Jags defense has allowed more than 21 points only twice in their last seven contests. The Pats stop unit has allowed more than 21 points only four times this entire season. Jacksonville has stayed under the total in four of their last five. New England has stayed under in four straight. We will stick with that and grab the under here.
4* Over 42.5, Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh
This game has 'over' written all over it as these two teams have changed their offensive philosophies and have become pass first, run second ball clubs. Ben Roethlisberger is averaging over 34 pass attempts per game and has 22 TD's on the season compared to just 11 INT's and is completing over 67% of his passes. If we throw out the Steelers game against the Browns a few weeks back which was played in bad weather conditions, Roethlisberger has had a QB rating of 109+ in three straight games.
Baltimore is very similar in that regard offensively as they've relied heavily on their passing game this season and young QB Joe Flacco. Flacco is attempting over 32 passes per game and in the first meeting of the season versus the Steelers he was 23 of 35 for 289 yds and 1 TD. The Ravens offense started out the season by scoring 30+ points in 5 of their first seven games but then went on a scoring drought for five games in a row. They now seem to be back on track after scoring 31 and 48 points in their last two games.
We mentioned the first meeting of the season which had a final score of Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 17 and that game was an OT thriller so how will they get to 42 points in this game you ask? Remember the Steelers didn't have Big Ben for that game nor did they have their #2 QB in Charlie Batch so they started 3rd stringer Dixon who was 12 of 26 for just 145 yards in the game. Without their full play book to work with the Steelers designed a very 'vanilla' game plan for their young QB to keep him out of trouble. That changes this weekend.
The Steelers have a solid history of playing 'over' versus AFC teams as they have gone 'over' the total in 19 of their 27. At home the Steelers are 50-22-2 'over' their last 74. Yes, both teams have solid defenses that rank in the top 11 in Total defense but both also have offenses that rank in the top 13 in Total 'O' and average 22.5 and 25 points per game. Both teams have plenty to play for and we expect a high scoring shootout with a final combined point total much higher than the set number of 42. In fact, our predictive math model projects a number of 49 on this game and a long term 'total' system of ours which is 43-13 'over' the last 56 times its applied supports our thinking. Best of luck.
Lenny Del Genio
25* AFC North Total of the Year Over 42 Baltimore / Pittsburgh
Despite plenty of evidence to the contrary, the oddsmakers are treating this rivalry as if both teams were still defensive stalwarts. They are anything but. Both have "good" defenses to be sure, but no longer really top five caliber thanks to injuries. It just cannot be overstated how much the loss of Safety Troy Polamalu hurt the Steelers. With him in the lineup, they are 4-1 straight up with 10 takeaways. Without him, they are 3-6 SU with just six takeaways. They rank just 10th in points allowed after being first in that category last season. Last week, they were carved up by Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay to the tune of 36 points and 436 yards. Baltimore's defense commits an ungodly amount of pass interference penalties, which of course puts the opposition in good position to score. It also bears mentioning how prolific both teams offenses are. Both average 21 first downs per game. Pittsburgh is now a passing team. They have over 600 passing yards the L2 wks compared to just 140 yards on the ground. The same can be said of the Ravens, as they throw the ball 57.7% of the time compared to just 44% last year. Eight of the last nine meetings here in the Steel City have gone Over. Baltimore is 13-4 Over as a road underdog.
Boston Blackie
5* GOW Seattle +14
PPP
3% Houston
3% Pittsburgh
2% Washington
4% Kentucky
MustWinSports
5 DIME TEASER NY GIANTS & WASHINGTON
Joyce Sterling
10* Knicks +3
Cal Sports
4* Nuggets
4* Iona
Kelso
25 Units Ravens
50 Units Dallas
Preferred
10* GOY Washington
3* Kentucky
Northcoast
3'* Phily 3.5
3* Jets 3
3* Packers 3
3* Clemson 3
The "Greatest"
5* Pittsburgh
5* Oakland
5* Tampa Bay
5* Kentucky
Executive
350 Carolina
300 Atlanta
300 Philly
250 Clemson
Monday
250 Texas A&M
Lenny Del Genio
Green Bay -13.5
If last week was any indication, the Seahawks have mailed it in for the season. The major disadvantage of being the NFL's lone team in the Pacific Northwest is that the frequently have long flights to make, and that wears them down by season's end. This early start time certainly doesn't help. Just to show how far they've fallen, Seattle is just 9-21 SU their last 30 games. They are 1-6 SU in road games this year (only win vs. St. Louis) with every loss coming by double-digits. The favorite has gone 12-2 ATS in Seahawks games this season with Seattle at 0-7 ATS when they are the underdog. They are just 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they've played a team with a winning record. They are also 0-6 ATS off a home game this season. The last time they visited Green Bay was the 2007 playoffs when they lost 42-20. Don't look for any sympathy from the Packers this week after the last second loss to Pittsburgh last week. They are still trying to sew up a Wild Card berth. Aaron Rodgers is playing about as well as any QB in the league. Take Green Bay.