Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, December 6,2009

Maddux Sports

5 Units Denver & Kansas City Over 38.5
3 Units Pittsburgh -14.5
3 Units Washington +9.5
3 Units Arizona +3.5
3 Units New England & Miami Over 45.5

Pointwise Phone Service

3* SAN DIEGO, WASH, NEW ENGLAND, TENN, G BAY

2* MINNY, PITTS

Teddy Covers

20* Big Ticket: San Francisco Pk

Pittsburgh -14.5
Tennessee +6.5
St. Louis +9.5

Sirduke Sports

11* Tennessee Titans +7
7* Cincinnati Bengals -13
7* Green Bay Packers -3

DAVID MALINSKY

4* NEW ENGLAND over MIAMI

Let’s begin our N.F.L. week by locking in on this one, with 3’s available in the market as of Thursday afternoon. Those lines, of course, came when a major rumor was circulated this morning that Tom Brady was “questionable” for New England, and a game that had been as high as -6 began crashing. We will follow up later with more details on this game, with those “Bill Belichick off of a loss” numbers coming into play again, but for now here is the report filed by New England for the Thursday practice, which was more than 90 minutes after the mark surge took place –DID NOT PARTICIPATE:
RB Fred Taylor (ankle)
S Bret Lockett (groin).LIMITED PARTICIPATION:
WR Sam Aiken (hip)
LB Eric Alexander (groin)
TE Chris Baker (shoulder)
LB Tully Banta-Cain (shoulder)
NT Ron Brace (ankle)
WR Julian Edelman (forearm)
DE Jarvis Green (knee)
OT Nick Kaczur (ankle)
C Dan Koppen (knee)
OT Matt Light (knee)
RB Sammy Morris (knee)
G Stephen Neal (ankle)
LB Rob Ninkovich (knee)
OT Sebastian Vollmer (head)
DE Ty Warren (ankle)
LB Pierre Woods (groin).FULL PARTICIPATION:
QB Tom Brady (shoulder)
CB Shawn Springs (knee).We do not believe that we can be hurt by locking in now, and will go ahead with a full 4* play.ADDED INFO –OK, now the markets have had their fun and Brady’s status has is becoming well known, yet the books are still slow to trickle the game back up. That leaves outstanding value for the traditional handicap to get into play. In this week’s edition of ”Verities & Balderdash” we note those awful problems the Dolphins are having in the fourth quarter of games, allowing a league high in points. It happens when you have an inexperienced QB and one of the weakest sets of WR’s in the league, which means trouble making things happen, and also when the defense is so young at those key CB positions. Only the Lions, Raiders and Browns have a wider gap between Yards Per Pass and Yards Per Pass Allowed, and with the Patriots now seeing the Wildcat for the fourth time in the last two seasons it will be on that Miami passing attack to make things happen. That is far more than Chad Henne can shoulder right now, especially since the defense will one again be hard-pressed to make stops – the Patriots rolled to 432 yards in that earlier home win, with Randy Moss and Wes Welker running free to the tune of 15 catches for 231. As for Belichick off of a loss here are the numbers – in his last 21 appearances in the role the Patriots are a sparkling 20-1 SU and 18-3 ATS, beating the spread by 271 points in the process. That is a significant margin of 12.9 per game over what the oddsmakers are projecting. The base premise fits awfully well here, especially since a loss would reduce their division lead to a single game, and they take care of business against a young team that can be exploited by the experience and savvy that they bring to the table.

4* GREEN BAY over BALTIMORE

We know where we are going to be on Monday night, and because the markets are showing signs of aligning the same way we will pull the trigger now – the 3’s that are available are going to be harder to find as we get closer to kickoff.The Packers have been significantly better than the Ravens across the board, and in fact have been one of the N.F.L.’s best teams when we go through the base categories – they lead the opposition by a commanding 6:48 per game in time of possession, off of advantages of 49 first downs and 1,105 yards. They get 1.83 yards per pass more than they allow, and the rushing is 4.3 vs. 3.6. But they have not been able to show better than that 7-4 in the W/L column because of one significant weakness, the inability to protect Aaron Rodgers early in the season. Through those 11 games they have allowed an alarming 44 sacks. But as the OL developed some chemistry, and the playbook was tweaked to work around the protection issues, there are signs of real improvement, with no sacks allowed the last two games. And when Rodgers is not being sacked this passing attack brings tremendous abilities to attack down the field – he has had a passer rating of at least 108.0 in seven of the last nine games, and three different Green Bay receivers have are averaging better than 15.0 per catch with more than 20 receptions.The passing game presents a major headache for a Baltimore secondary that has struggled all season, and in the first road game since losing Fabian Washington they are even more vulnerable. To make matters worse they can not rely on the pass rush to pick up much of the slack with Terrell Suggs, who is expected to miss his third straight game, and they have not recorded a sack since he went down. And while it does look like Ed Reed will be able to go, Reed missed two days of practice this week, and is not going to be 100 percent.Do not be surprised to see a weary Baltimore team here off of those exhausting outings against the Colts and Steelers the past two weeks, while the Packers not only have the advantage of extra preparation time, but they were coasting in each of their last two outings (remember that the 30-24 win over San Francisco was at 30-10 in the fourth quarter). The edge in freshness brings an aggressive approach that can put the Raven pass defense on its heels, and leads to a convincing win

Brandon Lang

50 DIME - DALLAS COWBOYS - (if your line is 2 1/2 you buy the half and lay 2, if it's 1 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 1. Don't ever get beat by the hook. - All Cowboys today.

First and foremost, when the Giants barely won the first meeting in Dallas on Sunday night week two, they were given 4 turnovers by the Cowboys, had a pair of 100 yard receiveing games from Manningham and Smith and still only won the game by 2 points 33-31.

Lost in the shuffle of Tony Romo's 13 of 29 performance for a 129 yards and 3 INT's, was the fact the Cowboys rushed for 251 yards against a pretty healthy Giants defense.

Now facing a Giants team that is reeling, and I do mean reeling as they have lost 5 of their last 6 SU and 0-6 ATS, this game today is flat out a case of two teams heading in opposite directions.

The big change for Dallas is offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and his decision to run the ball more and get Tony Romo in more favorable passing situations.

Also favoring the Cowboys here is the emergence of Austin at wide receiver thus opening up the middle for Witten.

The Giants are having huge problems on the defensive side of the football and you saw just how far they fell last Thursday at Denver.

You factor in Eli Manning not being 100% and you can see where things just weren't meant to be for the Giants this year.

Dallas has all the momentum in the world where New York doesn't and you can use all the pep talks you want but reality is reality, and when you have lost 5 of your last 6 games the reality is you are just not a very good football team.

Folks, you get to the 2nd half of the season and you have lost 5 of your last 6 games that tells me you just don't have it. Teams are attacking you where you are most vulnerable and there just isn't anything you can do to stop it.

There is a reason the Giants have allowed 14 sacks in their last 5 games. There offensive line is beat up and injured and their QB is masking the fact his foot is causing all kinds of problems.

As I already said above, this game today is about two teams heading in opposite directions and I will jump all over the team going the right way.

My 50 dimer today is on the Dallas Cowboys as they handle their business and get the job done against a free falling Giants team that will fall further into the abyss with this loss today.

25 DIME - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - (if line is 4 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 4. - Feel sorry for the Dolphins today.

One of the worst things you can have to face as a football team in the NFL is facing a Bill Belichick team off a loss.

In their last 21 games off a SU loss the Patriots have won 18 of those. Think about that, 18-3 SU their last 21 off a loss.

Just look at this year and what they have done after their first 3 losses.

Off a 16-9 loss to the Jets they came back home and handled the Falcons 26-10 covering the 4 1/2 number. Off their 20-17 loss at Denver they came back home and just destroyed Tennessee 59-0.

And off their 35-34 loss at Indy, they came home to hammer the Jets 31-14.

Now they face a Dolphins team who starts 2 rookies at cornerback and an angry Tom Brady. Not a very good situation for the Dolphins at home.

In the first meeting 4 weeks ago, the Patriots won 27-17 in a game that really wasn't that close.

New England had 432 yards to the Dolphins 334, and it was only a broken play with Pat White at QB that set up the covering TD for the Dolphins.

I fully expect the blown coverages and assignments by the New England secondary on Monday night to be fully corrected against Chad Henne and an average at best receiving core of the Dolphins. This game sets up very well for New England.

Here is one more mind blowing statistic for you: New England has covered 13 of their last 15 conference road games. 13 of 15 folks.

That is good enough for me as Randy Moss and Wes Welker run wild on this very young and very beatable Miami secondary, Tom Brady has a huge day and New England runs away with a double digit win.

FREE SELECTION - ATLANTA FALCONS

HalfBets

8* Colts -6.5

7* Cincy -13

7* Redskins +10

4* Redskins +6.5 1H

3 team parlay for 1*

UNDER 47 Colts
OVER 46.5 Houston
OVER 41 San Fran

BOSTON BLACKIE

5* Atlanta +5.5

Major postseason implications. The Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons will each be missing major offensive weapons for their important NFC tilt Sunday at the Georgia Dome Vick has seen little action behind Donovan McNabb, carrying 15 times all season for 65 yards and attempting nine passes, completing three for six yards. Redman played last week and led the team to a comeback victory last Sunday against Tampa Bay. Atlanta is 5-0 at home this season and has won eight straight there dating to last year. The team will have a new kicker this week after releasing Jason Elam and replacing him with Matt Bryant.

BULLSEYE SPORTS

5*Chicago Bears

Top Dog - New York Giants

Upset Special Kansas City Chiefs

RON RAYMOND

5* NFL BEST BET OF THE WEEK!

Tennessee Titans +6.5

5* NFL UNDERDOG SUNDAY SHOCKER!

Kansas City Chiefs +6

5* NFL O/U BEST BET

Titans / Colts Over 46

BONUS PICKS

Saints / Redskins Under 47

Patriots / Dolphins Under 45.5

Tony George

Minnesota Vikings -3.5

Dallas Cowboys -1

New England Patriots -4.5

SIXTH SENSE

BEST BETS

YTD 33-31 –3.60%

3% DENVER -4.5
3% PHILADELPHIA -5.5
3% SAN FRANCISCO PK
3% GREEN BAY -3.5
3% HOUSTON/JACKSONVILLE OVER 46.5
3% NEW ENGLAND/MIAMI OVER 45.5

Denver -4.5 KANSAS CITY 38

Denver rolled over the Giants last week, out rushing them only 3.6ypr to 3.5ypr but 138-57. They out passed the Giants 8.1yps to 4.9yps and out gained them overall, 5.4yppl to 4.5yppl. KC was smoked at SD, although they did out rush the Chargers 5.0ypr to 2.8ypr but were out passed 11.4yps to 5.0yps and out gained overall 6.8yppl to 5.0yppl. Denver is average on offense, gaining just 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl but they have been very good on defense, allowing just 3.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.5yps against 6.5yps and 4.8yppl against 5.4yyppl. KC has really struggled on offense, gaining just 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.9yps against 6.0yps and 4.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 7.5yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. KC qualifies in a couple of bounce back situations based on their poor performance last week, which are 49-19-1 and 73-33-1. Denver qualifies in a couple of fundamental situations, which are 555-421-30 and 462-303-21. Numbers favor Denver by 10.5 points and predict about 40 points. While the situations go both ways, the value certainly lies in Denver’s favor. They are clearly the better team on both sides of the ball. KC has taken Dallas and Pittsburgh to OT at home (winning one and losing one) but they were dominated in both of those games. Turnovers and kick returns kept them in those games. Denver has struggled recently although they got back on track last week. But, during those struggles, they played a bunch of good teams. The only below .500 team they played during that stretch was at Washington, who has a very good defense. Denver was controlling that game until Kyle Orton left with an injury. The two games against bad teams Denver has played this year, they have won by 21 and 20 points. Meanwhile, KC has played four good teams at home this year and lost by 11, 6, 30 and won by 3 points. Again, in the six and three point games, they were dominated by turnovers kept them in those games. In those games, KC was getting 11, 9, 7 and 6 points so the line is way down for another quality opponent. Better offense and better defense with plenty of value. KC has allowed at least 24 points in all of those home games, while Denver hasn’t allowed more than six points against the two really anemic offenses they have faced this year. DENVER 26 KANSAS CITY 10

PITTSBURGH -14.5 Oakland 37

Oakland was blown out at Dallas as they were out rushed 7.8ypr to 5.2ypr, out passed 9.6yps to 4.8yps and out gained overall 8.8yppl to 4.9yppl. Pittsburgh put up a gutsy performance at Baltimore without Roethlisberger and were one fourth down stop from probably winning the game. They were out rushed 4.6ypr to 4.0ypr, out passed 6.5yps to 5.6yps and out gained overall 5.7yppl to 4.7yppl. Oakland has gone with Gradkowski the last two weeks and at least their offense has been better than terrible. They still average just 4.3yps against 6.0yps and 4.2yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense allows 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.0yps against 6.5yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. Pittsburgh has been very good throwing the ball this year and they will get Roethlisberger back this week. They average 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl overall. The defense is good once again, allowing just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.5yps against 6.0yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 17.5 points and predict about 34 points. Pittsburgh may play this game conservatively to make sure Roethlisberger doesn’t get hurt but they could easily cover this game doing just that. PITTSBURGH 24 OAKLAND 10

JACKSONVILLE PK Houston 46.5

Jacksonville lost badly at SF last week, 20-3, but out gained them in all areas, out rushing them 5.1ypr to 2.6ypr, out passed them 6.2yps to 5.7yps and overall, 5.9yppl to 4.7yppl. Houston out gained Indy 5.8yppl to 5.7yppl but had three turnovers to two for Indy and those turnovers were all crucial turnovers that really hampered their chances to win the game. Houston struggles to run the ball, averaging just 3.4ypr against 4.2ypr but they do average 7.2yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl overall. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Jacksonville rushes the ball extremely well, averaging 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow, however, 6.9yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They will be without CB Mathis again this week. Jacksonville qualifies in a couple of fundamental situations, which are 555-421-30 and 462-303-21. Numbers favor Houston by two points before accounting for the situations and predict about 47 points. I’d like to play Jacksonville here because of the situations, but I have my doubts about how good Jacksonville is. These two have totaled 54 and 57 the last two times they have played here. Both offenses are above average and both defenses are below average. Weather should be fine. The over looks like a good opportunity. JACKSONVILLE 30 HOUSTON 27

INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 Tennessee 46.5

Colts fell behind 17-0 but got a couple of stops on defense and let their offense get them back in the game and then crucial turnovers sealed the Texans fate. Indy was out gained slightly, 5.8yppl to 5.7yppl. Tennessee needed a late rally from Vince Young to win 20-17. The Titans out gained Arizona 7.1ypr to 3.8ypr, 7.9yps to 6.8yps and 7.6yppl to 5.6yppl. The Colts still don’t run the ball well, averaging just 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr but they do average 7.7yps against 6.5yps and 6.3yppl against 5.6yppl. The defense is still holding itself together even with all the injuries. They allow just 5.6yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. Tennessee has been running the ball well all year, averaging 5.4ypr against 4.3ypr but they are now almost average throwing the ball with the recent success they have had the past few weeks. They now average 6.0yps against 6.1yps, which is a huge improvement over the first part of the season. Overall, on offense, they average 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense allows 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl but they have gotten much better the past few weeks as they have gotten healthy. Indianapolis qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 49-15-1. Tennessee qualifies in a couple of fundamental situations, which are 555-421-30 and 462-303-21 as well as 157-77-7. Numbers, however, favor Indy by a whopping 14.5 points and predict about 50 points. Tennessee has played extremely well the last five weeks with Vince Young at quarterback. I would like to take them in this game but the value is clearly with Indianapolis and the situations go both ways. I’ll call for a seven point victory and let the line decide which way I lean. INDIANAPOLIS 28 TENNESSEE 21

Philadelphia -5.5 ATLANTA 43.5

Philly struggled to defeat Washington 27-24 but they out gained the Redskins. They out rushed them 4.2ypr to 3.3ypr, out passed them 6.8yps to 5.8yps and overall, 5.7yppl to 4.8yppl. Atlanta managed to overcome the loss of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner with a final minute win. Atlanta only managed to average 2.9ypr against a bad TB rush defense. They did hold TB to just 2.8ypr but they allowed TB to throw for 7.9yps and averaged just 4.4yps themselves. Overall, they were out gained 5.6yppl to 3.9yppl and were sacked six times by TB. Philly averages 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr and 6.5yps against 6.1yps for a total of 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They will be without Brian Westbrook again this week as well as DeJean Jackson. On defense, they allow just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.3yps against 6.1yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl. Atlanta will most likely be without Matt Ryan and Michael Turner this week. They average just 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl as they have really struggled on offense the past few weeks. They allow 7.0yps against 6.1yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Philly qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 462-303-21. Numbers favor Philly by three points (not accounting for the Atlanta injuries) and predict about 53 points. Atlanta has played four good teams with Matt Ryan at quarterback this year and lost three of those four games by at least eight points and the other game by three points. To be fair, all of those games were on the road. They should do better this week with Chris Redman having a full week to practice but I still have to believe it is going to be difficult for Atlanta to move the ball on a good Philly defense and stop a good Philly offense from scoring, despite the fact Philly is missing two of their best offensive players. PHILADELPHIA 28 ATLANTA 17

CINCINNATI -13 Detroit 42

Cincinnati didn’t destroy Cleveland but they did enough to win and controlled the line of scrimmage. They out gained the Browns, 4.7ypr to 3.2ypr (including 210 yards rushing), 3.6yps to 3.1yps and overall 4.3ypr to 3.1ypr. Detroit was dominated by GB, as they were out passed 8.6yps to 4.4yps and overall, 6.3yppl to 4.0yppl. They also turned the ball over five times to just twice for GB. Detroit continues to sport terrible numbers. They gain just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.1yps against 5.9yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl. They defense allows 7.6yps against 5.4yps and 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl. Cincinnati averages just 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Detroit qualifies in late season letdown situation, which is 103-57-2. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 15.5 points and predict about 45 points. I’d like to consider Cincinnati here but they simply don’t blow out teams unless it is Chicago. The underdog is 11-0 ATS in Cincinnati games. They haven’t scored more than 18 points in their last four games, all wins. Detroit has given up at least 26 points in every road game this year so no reason to think their defense will show up in this game, even against a Cincinnati team that doesn’t score a lot of points. CINCINNATI 30 DETROIT 17

New Orleans -9.5 WASHINGTON 47.5

The Saints were incredible on Monday night in destroying NE. They out passed NE 15.3yps to 5.8yps and overall, 9.6yppl to 5.2yppl. Washington had Philly on the ropes for most of the game and lost by only three points, 27-24, but they were out gained badly. They were out rushed 4.2ypr to 3.3ypr, out passed 6.8yps to 5.8yps and overall, 5.7yppl to 4.8yppl. The Saints continue to be dominant on offense as they average 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr (151 yards per game), 8.4yps against 6.3yps and 6.6yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense they have been about average, allowing 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. The Redskins continue to be hit with key injuries and the offense has been below average just about all year. They average just 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl but the pass defense has been good, allowing just 5.5yps against 5.9yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor NO by 12 points and predict about 47 points. Washington has only scored more than 17 points in two games this year but those two games were two of the last three games. They also have only had one game where they have lost by more than 10 points. The Saints have scored at least 24 points in every game this year and 28 or more in 9 of their 11 games. I’ll lean towards Washington but it is a weak lean. NEW ORLEANS 30 WASHINGTON 21

CAROLINA -6 Tampa Bay 39.5

TB lost in the final seconds of last weeks game at Atlanta and they deserved to win that game. They out passed Atlanta, 7.9yps to 4.4yps and overall, 5.6yppl to 3.9yppl. They also sacked Atlanta six times. Carolina was terrible at the Jets in losing 17-6. They were out rushed 3.6ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed badly, 6.9yps to 2.8yps and overall 4.7yppl to 2.9yppl. Jake Delhomme threw four interceptions and he will miss this weeks game. TB averages just 5.1yps against 5.9yps and 4.7yppl against 5.2ypp. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.8yps against 6.4yps and 5.7yppl against 5.6yppl. Carolina still rushes the ball well, averaging 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is still playing well, allowing just 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. Carolina qualifies in a couple of fundamental situations, which are 555-421-30 and 462-303-21. Numbers favor Carolina by 8.5 points. I’m not going to guess which Carolina team we get this week. I’ll lean to the situations and call for a Carolina cover. CAROLINA 24 TAMPA BAY 17

CHICAGO -8.5 St Louis 41

The Bears were destroyed by the Vikings last week 36-10. They were out rushed 159-43 and 4.7ypr to 3.9ypr, out passed 378-126 and 7.7yps to 4.7yps and overall 537-169 and 6.5yppl to 4.4yppl. The Rams lost at home to Seattle but they out gained Seattle 4.7yppl to 4.6yppl. They were out rushed 5.5ypr to 4.0ypr but out passed them 5.0yps to 3.7yps. The Rams average 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr but just 5.2yps against 6.1yps for a total of 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. Stephen Jackson is still banged up and questionable for this week. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. As bad as they Bears have been as of late, they have a chance against the Rams defense. Chicago averages just 5.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is also falling apart, as they now allow 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. The Rams qualify in a general situation, which is 51-22-1, while the Bears qualify in a letdown situation, which is 88-42-4 and plays against Chicago here. Numbers favor Chicago by 9.5 points and predict about 39 points. The situations lie in the Rams favor and Chicago isn’t playing good football but they have played two horrible teams at home this year and defeated Detroit by 24 points and Cleveland by 24 points. I’ll side with the Rams because of the situations but never like taking such a bad defense on the road. CHICAGO 24 ST LOUIS 17

San Diego -13.5 CLEVELAND 42.5

Chargers destroyed KC last week 43-14. They were out rushed 5.0ypr to 2.8ypr but out passed the Chiefs 11.4yps to 5.0yps and overall, 6.8yppl to 5.8yppl. Cleveland managed a cover at Cincinnati but they were out played and their offense went back to the dreadful state it has been in six week 11 of last year. They gained just 3.2ypr and allowed Cincinnati 4.7ypr, including 210 yards. They were out passed 3.6yps to 3.1yps and out gained overall 4.3yppl to 3.1yppl. The Chargers are on a roll despite their inability to rush the ball. They average just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr but 7.6yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They defense has been about average, allowing 5.1yppl against 5.0yppl. Cleveland, is of course, terrible and there are no signs they will improve. They also lost Shaun Rodgers for the year last week. They average just 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 4.1yps against 6.0yps and 3.9yppl against 5.1yppl. They defense is almost as bad, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SD by 13.5 points and predicts about 45 points. SD has scored at least 23 points in every game but one this year (21 points in the other game), while Cleveland has scored more than 20 points just once this year – against the Lions. Cleveland has played three teams at home this year with good offenses and lost by at least 14 points in each of those games with an average loss of 19 points. SD has played one game on the road this year against real poor teams and won that game by 30 points. SAN DIEGO 31 CLEVELAND 14

SEATTLE PK San Francisco 41.5

Seattle rushed for 170 yards last week at the Rams, as they averaged 5.5ypr to just 4.0ypr to a good Rams rushing team that was playing with an injured Stephen Jackson. They were out passed by the Rams, 5.0yps to 3.7yps and out gained overall 4.7yppl to 4.6yppl. SF defeated Jacksonville rather easily, 20-3, but they were out gained in that game. Jacksonville out gained SF 5.1ypr to 2.6ypr, out passed them 6.2yps to 5.7yps and overall, 5.9yppl to 4.7yppl. SF averages just 5.3yps against 6.3yps and 4.9yppl against 5.5yppl. But, Alex Smith is improved the passing offense since starting at quarterback as well as Michael Crabtree at receiver. The defense allows just 3.6ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. Seattle averages just 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.6yps against 6.4yps and 4.9yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense allows 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. The 49ers qualify in a couple of fundamental situations, which are 555-421-30 and 462-303-21. Numbers favor SF by .5 point and predict about 39 points. SF went here last year and won 33-30. Seattle has won four games this year, two against the Rams, one against the Lions and one against Jacksonville. SF’s losses have come against good teams this year – Minnesota, Atlanta, Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Green Bay. While Atlanta and Houston aren’t great teams, they are better than Seattle. Better offense now that they have opened up their offense, better defense and solid situations in their favor. SAN FRANCISCO 23 SEATTLE 16

Minnesota -3 ARIZONA 48

The Vikings were dominant in their win over the Bears last week, 36-10. They out rushed Chicago, 159-43 at 4.7ypr to 3.9ypr, out passed them 378-126 at 7.7yps to 4.7yps and overall, 537-169 at 6.5yppl to 4.4yppl. Arizona lost on the last play of the game at Tennessee without Kurt Warner. While the game was close, they were out gained badly, 7.1ypr to 3.8ypr, 7.9yps to 6.8yps and overall, 7.6yppl to 5.6yppl. The Vikings continue to get better and better on offense. They now average 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.2yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They defense allows 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl but they also continue to get better. Arizona is averaging 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Kurt Warner will be a game time decision in this game. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Minnesota by three points and predict about 50 points. I just don’t see how the Cards can win this game. They haven’t defeated a good team all year long, with only three games against above .500 teams and 2-1 record against those teams, while being blown out by the best team they faced, Indianapolis. Minnesota hasn’t played a bunch of good teams either but they are 2-1 against Green Bay and Pittsburgh and really out played Pittsburgh but turnovers did them in. They have scored at least 27 points in every game but the Pittsburgh game this year. You can just about mark them down for 27-35 points a game. Arizona has scored more than 28 points in just three games this year. Add in the fact Kurt Warner may not play and I think the only way to look here is Minnesota. I would consider the over but need Warner to play before I would bet it. MINNESOTA 30 ARIZONA 21

Dallas -2.5 NY GIANTS 45.5

Cowboys smoked Oakland last week 24-7. They out rushed Oakland 7.8ypr to 5.2pr, out passed them 9.6yps to 4.8yps and overall, 8.8yppl to 4.9yppl. The Giants were beaten badly at Denver, 26-6. They were out passed 8.1yps to 4.9yps and overall out gained 5.4yppl to 4.5yppl. Dallas averages 5.3ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.3yps against 6.2yps and 6.4yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense allows 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. The Giants average 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They defense allows 5.7yps against 6.3yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. The Giants qualify in a bounce back situation, which is 73-33-1 as well as a 52-25-1 bounce back situation. Numbers favor the Giants by .5 point and predict about 48 points. I’ll lean with what seems to be the better team right now. But, must note Dallas has played three decent teams on the road this year and scored 10, 20 and 7 points for an average of about 12 points so their offense has struggled against good teams on the road. DALLAS 24 NY GIANTS 21

New England -3.5 MIAMI 45.5

NE was destroyed last week at NO and no surprise here as they have not fared well on the road this year against good competition. They were out passed a whopping 15.3yps to 5.8yps and out gained overall 9.6yppl to 5.2yppl. Miami lost at Buffalo and the final numbers were not good but that game was much closer than the final indicated. They were out gained 5.2ypr to 4.2ypr, 6.5yps to 5.1yps and overall 5.9yppl to 4.6yppl. They were out scored 24-0 in the fourth quarter but the game got away from them in the last four minutes. Buffalo made a 56 yard field to go up by three points with less than four minutes left. Had they not made that field goal, Miami would have had great field position to win the game. Instead they fell behind and it only got worse as they tried to play catch up in the last four minutes. Patriots average 7.1yps against 6.0yps and 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense now allows 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl after last weeks debacle. Miami still rushes the ball well, gaining 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.0yps against 5.8yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr but 6.7yps against 6.4yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Miami qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 130-68-5 and 462-303-21. Numbers favor NE by five points and predict about 50 points. The situations support Miami but the value isn’t even close to favoring Miami. I don’t understand this line. NE has lost four games on the road this year (actually all four at visitor sites – TB was a neutral field) but all four of those teams are better than Miami. Miami has lost the last two years here by 19 and 20 points, while both of those games totaled at least 76 points. I don’t think Miami wins this game but they have scored at least 23 points in every home game this year. NE has scored at least 25 points in all but three of their games. All three of those games were on the road but all against good defensive teams or in the case of last Monday night, Tom Brady was pulled once they were so far behind. NEW ENGLAND 31 MIAMI 27

GREEN BAY -3.5 Baltimore 43

The Packers played extremely well in their blow out of Detroit last week. They out passed Detroit 8.6yps to 4.4yps and out gained the Lions overall, 6.3yppl to 4.0yppl. They also forced five turnovers. Baltimore to by a Ben Roethlisbergerless Pittsburgh team. A key fourth and five conversion for Baltimore with less than four minutes kept a drive alive and allowed them to tie the game and then win it in OT. They out rushed Pittsburgh 4.6ypr to 4.0ypr, out passed them 6.5yps to 5.6yps and overall 5.7yppl to 4.7yppl. Baltimore averages 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr but their pass defense is now average after being below average for most of the season, allowing 6.3yps against 6.3yps. Overall, they allow 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. GB now averages 6.8yps against 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has really played well lately, allowing just 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.6yps against 5.8yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. GB qualifies in a Monday night situation, which is 27-8-2 and if they are favored by three or less points, they also qualify in a momentum situation, which is 81-38-7. Numbers favor GB by three points and predict about 47 points. GB lost CB Al Harris a couple of weeks ago along with Aaron Kampman. The Harris loss is big but Kampman was really a fish out of water this year in the new 3-4 alignment for GB. Despite those losses, the Packers have done a very good job on defense and continue to get better. Meanwhile, the offense is really hitting their stride right now. They are finally just about completely healthy on offense and that includes finally getting their offensive line in tact. GB has scored at least 24 points in 8 of their 11 games this year. Baltimore hasn’t scored more than 20 points in their last four games. GB actually runs the ball as well as Baltimore, throws the ball better, actually stops the run better and stops the pass much better. All that, with a short number, at home, with a solid situation in their favor make GB worth a shot. GREEN BAY 27 BALTIMORE 17

R.A.W. FOOTBALL

4* Best Bet Minnesota
3* Chicago
3* Tennessee
2* Pittsburgh
2* Philadelphia
2* Washington