Andre Gomes
ATL / PHI Under 43.5
I like this contest to be a low scoring affair for several reasons. First of all, these two teams are second in their respective divisions and with records of 7-4 and 6-5, this game is huge for the wildcard battle, so we can expect a big effort from both sides. Both teams are banged up on their offense. Matt Ryan is out for this contest and QB Chris Redman will start in his place. RB Michael Turner is also out and some of their best receivers are banged up as well. Roddy White missed some practices this week and Michael Jenkins is even questionable for this game, so the Falcons will have tremendous problems to score today and in my opinion, they will look to have a low risk approach in here.
However, the Eagles aren't better than the Falcons, as RB Brian Westbrook remains in the sidelines. Their big time receiver DeSean Jackson is also out and WR Kevin Curtis didn't recover from an injury and will also miss this game as well, so the Eagles are also shorthanded for today. Sure that the Falcons are currently ranked 23th in yards per game allowed averaging 373.9 yds per game, but I expect a major effort from them in this department.
We have a totals line of 43.5 points and we have some room to work in here and so, I'm taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 345/346 Under 43.5
Sportsbets Now
3 Units Broncos -6
3 Units Dolphins +4.5
GOLD SHEET LTS
1.5* Texans
1* Titans
1* Patriots
1* Seahawks
Seabass
300* New England
200* NYG
100* KC
100* Seattle
100* Tenn
50* Arizona
50* Wash
50* 2team teaser KC Under/TB Under
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Washington +10
We had the Saints last Monday night as my **CODE RED** 2009 "BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR", but for a number of different reasons, I believe the value in this matchup is on the large home dog:
New Orleans (11-0) is one of two unbeaten teams, along with Indianapolis. The Saints continued their dominating play with a 38-17 win over New England on Monday night; although I believe they'll win this game outright, I expect it to be much closer than oddsmakers are leading us to believe and expect a small "letdown".
New Orleans lost its last two games versus Washington, falling 29-24 at FedEx Field on Sept. 14, 2008. The Saints have dropped four of the last six matchups and are 7-15 all time against the Redskins.
The Saints have dominated almost everyone they've played the last few years, but always seems to have its hands full with the Redskins; 2-4 ATS their last six matchups.
On the other side of the field: The Redskins managed to put a scare into their last two opponents, falling 7-6 to Dallas before blowing an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter and losing 27-24 at Philadelphia on Sunday.
Washington plays three of its final five games at home, where it is 3-2.
Bottom line: Washington has been playing much better lately; a perfect 3-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
Simply too many points in a hostile environment; look for WASHINGTON to move to 3-2 ATS of a loss against a division rival and for New Orleans to fall to 0-2 ATS this year after playing on a Monday night!
9* REDSKINS
Marc Lawrence
New England -4.5
Bill Belichick’s bunch enters South Beach reeling off its 21-point Monday night loss at New Orleans knowing they are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games off a double-digit loss. In addition, Belichick is also a mind-boggling 16-1 ATS as a favorite versus an opponent off a division loss in his NFL career as a head coach. Not to forget QB Tom Brady, the future Hall of Famer, who is 10-1 SU and ATS on the road off a loss in his brilliant career. Toss in the Pats’ 8-0 ATS mark as division road chalk of four or more points and you get the drift. The feeling here is that Miami is about to be exposed, having been outgained in five of its six games since its Bye Week. Miami is 0-8 ATS at home under Tony Sparano when it thinks it’s a good team (win percentage greater than .333). In addition, Miami has covered the number in only 14 of 41 tries at home during the 2nd half of the season this decade, including 0-6 ATS under Sparano. Too many good numbers supporting the better team here today. We recommend a 3-unit play on New England.
Evan Altemus
Tennessee +7
The Colts have won several close games recently, and now they have to face the hottest team in the NFL. The Titans are a bad match-up for the Colts in this spot for two main reasons. Tennessee has been one of the best and most physical running teams over the last few weeks. Indianapolis is banged up on defense, and they struggle against good running teams. Also, the Titans have a big revenge angle here after getting embarrassed by the Colts at home earlier in the season. Their secondary was severely banged up in that game though, which allowed Peyton Manning to move the ball at will through the air. The Titans pass defense has been much better lately, as their secondary is finally fully healthy. The Colts know that they essentially have home field advantage wrapped up for the playoffs, so they won’t be playing with a sense of urgency like Tennessee is. Look for this game to be very close with the Titans having a chance to win outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION TITANS
Bob Balfe
Oakland +14.5
The Raiders are traveling to the east coast and should be no match for the Steelers, but Pittsburgh has lost 3 straight and with Big Ben coming back from injury I just do not think the Steelers should be this big of favorites. Oakland has a good defense that will keep this game close. I am not saying the Raiders win on the road, but they have all of the weapons to make this a game. Take Oakland.
Tony George
New England -4.5
Pride and sterngth of character being questioned in Boston after the Pats threw in the towel against the Saints after an ass whipping on Monday Night. Forget the short week and travel, NE clearly better here and motivated in conference play, and the Fish have no offense to trade punches here. The Fish also have key players out on defense with a young secondary against Brady and company and their starting center. Expect QB Henne to see blitz after blitz as he folds under pressure..the Pats will throw the kitrchen sink at him.
Play 1 Unit on New England.
Lenny Del Genio
New England -4
The Patriots are 7-1 ATS the past three seasons when coming off a SU loss, including 3-0 ATS this year. They are a NFL-best 24-2 SU in the month of December, including 12 straight wins. They also have the best division record in the league since '01, going 42-12 SU. What we're saying here is that this number is far too low. Miami is probably still down on itself for the 31-14 loss to Buffalo last week, which really hurt the team's playoff chances. The Dolphins are just 5-16 ATS L21 home games, including 0 for 6 in Weeks 10 through 13. They are 1-8 ATS coming off a two-game road trip. Favorites are 8-3 SU/ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams and the Dolphins are just 2-5 ATS as a home dog under HC Sparano. Take New England.
Sean Michaels
25 Dime - New England
Blazer
4* Panthers
Beatyourbookie
100* Milwaukee Bucks
Gamebreakers
Arizona +3.5
70% of all bets are pouring in on Minny but the line is moving the opposite way down from -4. See this one before, smart money is all over the Cards and public perception is the sole reason the Vikings are road favs of more than a FG vs a solid team. Arizona should have Warer back and Lienart got his act together in the 2nd half last week. Arizona has playmakers, home field, and a much improved D. Minny hasn't seen the road in a month and the outright upset would not surprise me. Take Arizona for a 4* Play.
Tennessee +6.5
Tennessee has some serious mojo on their side and they're a dangerous team because they believe. One more and they climb all the way back to .500 and a win vs the Colts would be huge for them in every way. They have talent and no doubt we'll have their best effort. Take Tennessee +6.5 for a 3* Play
Al DeMarco
15 Dime - Seattle Seahawks
Lost the guaranteed play on Cincinnati Saturday, and some will say it was the proverbial "tough beat" because the Bearcats failed to push or cover by one lowly point depending on your closing price. But, let's be honest here: Cincinnati never deserved to be in the game after falling behind by 21 early because its defense was defenseless when it came to stopping Pitt freshman running back Dion Lewis, who I thought was either going to collapse from exhaustion or run for 300 yards in the contest after his hot start. On the other hand, the final quarter of that game was one of the most exciting I've seen this season and was a helluva of a lot more enjoyable to watch than anything the Florida-Alabama snoozer offered.
To use a golf analogy, in college football this season I've been like a duffer who is consistently struggling with his shot off the tee. But, staying with the link-lingo, I've consistently scrambled back to par by making birdies or eagles with my NFL performances on Sunday and Monday. And that's why games are rated independently and why I'm in position to record my 8th straight winning football season with eight more weeks of action remaining.
Back to the matter at hand, today's selection on Seattle; the oddsmakers are just begging you to back San Francisco in this game.
Yes, the Niners won the first meeting in the season's second week, 23-10 at home as Frank Gore ran for 207 of his team's 256 yards. But this is a different San Francisco club playing today, one that is now a passing team with Alex Smith at quarterback instead of Shaun Hill.
Here's the most interesting thing I can tell you about the 49ers: they've been outgained in seven of the past eight games. Think about that for a second because there's only a couple of reasons behind that fact. Either the offense moves the ball but gets bogged down in the red zone and/or turns it over, or the defense is unable to get key stops. And that's why this team is nothing more than a .500 club that if you recall needed an incredible five interception performance by Jay Cutler to beat the lowly Bears a few weeks ago on a nationally-televised home game (in which I had San Fran).
Seattle is coming off a 27-17 win at St. Louis which capped a three-game road trip that began with stops in Arizona and Minnesota, two games in which Matt Hasselbeck gallantly played through despite an aching shoulder that affected his throwing motion. But today the Seattle signal-caller gets to face another lousy pass defense, one that is ranked 28th in the league with an average yield of 256 yards a game.
For the Seahawks, this is just their second home game in a six-week stretch. And Hasselbeck also takes the field today with some semblance of ground support. Justin Forsett, who has cracked the century mark in two of the past three games filling in for Julius Jones, is coming off a 22-carry, 130-yard, two-touchdown effort at St. Louis and is averaging 5.7 yards per carry. And Jones is expected to be back in action today as well.
I know the Niners are coming off a 20-3 home win against Jacksonville last Sunday, but when have the Jaguars played well on the road this season? And San Fran was outgained in that game as well by a 357-284 margin.
FYI - that was the same Jacksonville team the Seahawks whipped at home 41-0 back in the second week of October.
As I said at the outset, I believe the oddsmakers are just begging you to bet San Francisco today. The 49ers have been a tremendous play as an underdog during Mike Singletary's brief tenure, especially on the road, but they're not getting the big points in this one like they were two road games back when they caught 13 at Indy. And don't forget in their last road outing, when they were a six-point pup at Green Bay, they needed a furious fourth-quarterback comeback in garbage time to get the cover in a 30-24 loss in which they were thoroughly outplayed.
Seattle surprises today with a 28-24 win.