Wildcat
10* Tennessee
7* AZ
NSA
20* Philadelphia -5
20* San Diego -13.5
20* Western Kentucky -9
10* Miami +5
10* Dallas -1
10* Pittsburgh -14.5
Trey Scott
*300 San Diego Chargers -13.5
*200 Miami Dolphins +4
*200 Detroit Lions +13
*200 Kansas City Chiefs +6
*200 Villanova -2
Street Rosenthal
*300 Chicago Bears -9.5
*200 Seattle Seahawks +1
*200 Carolina Panthers -5
*200 Tennessee Titans +7 (buy 1/2 pt)
*200 Phoenix Suns +9
*200 Detroit Pistons -3
Frank Patron
Miami Dolphins +4
Executive
300 W Kentucky
Power Play Wins
Houston Texans -2.5
New England Patriots -4
San Francisco 49ers -1
Dallas Cowboys -1
Minnesota Vikings -3
DR BOB
2 Star Selection
NY GIANTS (+2.5) 26 Dallas 20
This game reminds me a bit of my Best Bet win on Denver over the Giants last week. New York has gone 1-5 straight up and 0-6 ATS since starting the season 5-0 straight up and people have suddenly concluded that the Giants are a bad team. Just like Denver wasn't a bad team because they lost 4 in a row the Giants aren't a bad team either. New York has actually been slightly better than average from the line of scrimmage during their 6 game spread losing streak, rating at 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) but rating at 0.3 yppl better than average on defense (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense). I chalk up some of that mediocre performance as nothing more than negative variance and I still believe that New York is a better than an average team just like I felt the Broncos were still a good team heading into last week's game.
New York still rates at 0.2 yppl better than average offensively for the season (+0.1 yppl if RB Ahmad Bradshaw does not play) and their defense is 0.5 yppl better than average for the season. I realize that leading tackler Antonio Pierce is out for the rest of the season (he's missed the last two games), but while Pierce was a solid run defender he was a liability in pass coverage and his value is negligible. The key to the Giants defense may be LB Michael Boley, who actually leads the team in tackles per game at 6.5 (Pierce is second at 6.1) and is good in pass coverage (he's broken up 4 passes and has 1 sack in 6 games while Pierce has just 3 passes defended and 1 sacks in 9 games). The Giants were 0.1 yppl worse than average in the 6 games that Boley has missed and they've been 0.9 yppl better than average in the 6 games that he has played. Boley returned in week 9 and the defense played great in holding San Diego's explosive attack to just 4.3 yppl and they then held a good Falcons' offense to just 4.6 yppl in week 11. I didn't expect them to play well last week in Denver and they didn't, but allowing 5.6 yppl at Denver is not a bad effort since the Broncos would average 5.7 yppl at home against an average team. Rather than make the Giants 0.9 yppl better than average defensively when doing my math on this game I decided to use the last two games with Pierce out and the Giants' rating in those two games is 0.6 yppl better than average.
Dallas is 1.1 yppl better than average offensively, so they still have an edge over New York's defense, but the Cowboys' defense is nothing special - rating at average against the run and just 0.2 yppl better than average against the pass if you take out the 330 yards at 8.7 yards per pass play that the Giants amassed against them in week 2 when top CB Michael ******* was out. Overall, my math favors Dallas by 1 1/2 points in one model and my other model makes this game a pick, which was the opening line. Either way, we have a bit of line value favoring the Giants and New York applies to a very good 33-4-2 ATS subset of a 94-39-4 ATS bounce-back situation. The Giants also apply to a very good 80-34-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Also, losing 5 or more consecutive games to the spread usually signals the time when teams start to play better, as well as being about the time when the public has given up on a team, which supplies line value going with the slumping team. Teams that have lost 5 or more consecutive games to the spread and are coming off a straight up loss are 17-0 ATS since November of 2006 as long as they're not favored by more than 3 points. This looks like the week the Giants turn their season back around and Dallas having revenge is not a negative, as teams at .500 or better seeking same season revenge against a team with a win percentage of less than .600 are only 78-113-5 ATS over the years. Dallas has also been favored on the road twice against winning teams this season and they lost both of those games straight up, 10-17 at Denver and 7-17 at Green Bay a few weeks ago. I'll take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 3-Stars if the line goes up to +3 (at -115 odds or better).
2 Star Selection
ARIZONA (+3.5) 27 Minnesota 23
The Vikings are 10-1 and have rolled to 3 easy wins over sub-par teams since their bye week. However, Minnesota hasn't been tested too often this season and the Vikings' 5 games against good teams have all been competitive. Minnesota needed a final play long touchdown pass to beat San Francisco 27-24 in week 3 at home. The Vikes beat Green Bay the next week at home 30-23 but were out-gained 5.6 yppl to 6.8 yppl. In week 6 at home against Baltimore the Vikings squeaked out a 33-31 win but were out-gained 6.8 yppl to 7.1 yppl and didn't cover. The next week at Pittsburgh the Vikings were out-gained 5.0 yppl to 5.4 yppl in a loss to the Steelers. The only game against a good team in which the Vikings out-played their opponent from the line of scrimmage was their week 8 38-26 win over Green Bay, in which the Vikes averaged 5.9 yppl and allowed 5.2 yppl. Minnesota won just 2 of those 5 games against good teams by more than 3 points and they were out-gained 5.6 yppl to 5.9 yppl in those games.
Arizona hasn't faced many good teams either and their results in those games have been mixed, but the Cardinals have a history of rising to the occasion, especially at home, as they are 20-9-2 ATS under coach Ken Wisenhunt in games in which they are favored by less than 3 points or getting points, including 4-1-1 ATS this season. The Cardinals are 6-2 straight up as a home underdog or pick under Wisenhunt, although they did lose this season as a small home favorite to the unbeaten Colts.
I addition to the Cardinals' history of playing well against good teams the Vikings apply to a number of road letdown situations, including a 31-80-3 ATS angle and a 19-57 ATS situation that plays against road teams that are 3 games or more better than .500 after winning 3 or more consecutive games when visiting a winning team that is coming off a loss. After beating up on 3 bad teams I don't think the Vikings will be ready to play a good team on the road. In fact, teams that win and cover against a losing team in 3 consecutive weeks are 0-10 straight up and 0-10 ATS when visiting a winning team the next week. Arizona coming off that last second road loss to a hot Tennessee team also helps their chances this week, as the Cardinals are 3-0 ATS after a loss this season and 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS at home after a loss under Wisenhunt (3-0 straight up as a home dog or pick).
My math model favors Minnesota by 2 points with Kurt Warner starting at quarterback for the Cardinals and by 3 1/2 points if it's Matt Leinart behind center, although Leinart played very well last week at Tennessee (6.8 yards per pass play and no interceptions against a good Titans' secondary). Warner missed last week's game due to lingering issues with a concussion he suffered the previous week, but he's been practicing all week this week and should play. Of course, he was supposed to have played last week too, but woke up on Sunday with a stiff back. I like the Cardinals even with Leinart, but I'd like it more if I knew Warner was going to play the entire game and he's listed as a game time decision. I'll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinions
CINCINNATI (-13.0) 31 Detroit 13
Detroit is 0-5 ATS on the road this season with an average losing margin of 19.4 points. Cincinnati has only had one blowout win this season and they're 0-3 ATS against bad teams (0-2 ATS against Cleveland and lost at Oakland), but both of my math models give Cincy more than a 56% chance of covering the spread in this game.
The Bengals should certainly be able to move the ball, as their slightly worse than average attack (5.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) has a big advantage over a horrible Lions' defense that has surrendered 6.4 yppl and 30.5 points per game this season. That unit has been even worse lately due to numerous injuries in the secondary and Carson Palmer is certainly still good enough to take advantage.
Detroit's offense has averaged just 4.7 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and they rate at 0.5 yppl worse than average in game with star WR Calvin Johnson healthy. In addition to being bad at moving the ball the Lions' rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford continues to throw interceptions at an alarming rate (18 in 9 games). Cincinnati has allowed just 15.8 points per game and they've allowed 14 points or less in 6 of their 11 games, so I don't see the Lions getting more than 14 points in this game.
My math model gives the Bengals a 55.7% chance of covering at -13 points and I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at -13 1/2 points or less.
Tampa Bay (+5) 20 CAROLINA 21
Tampa Bay is an improving team that has covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games and is likely to cover again this week. The Bucs still rate at 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively with Josh Freeman at quarterback but the defense has improved since being confused with the new schemes early in the season. The secondary has been particularly solid lately, giving up more than 5.8 yards per pass play only once in their last 4 games and that was a game in which they held the Saints Drew Brees to just 6.4 yppp (he averages over 8 yppp for the season). The secondary would take a hit if top CB Aquib Talib is unable to play due to an injured hamstring and he appears to be a game time decision. That improving secondary will be up against a lightly experienced backup, as Matt Moore steps in for veteran Jake Delhomme for the Panthers this week (Delhomme has a broken finger). Moore started several games in 2007 when Delhomme was injured and he did a decent job. In fact, Moore's career yards per pass play average of 5.7 yppp is actually higher than Delhomme's average this season. I don't think Moore will improve the Panthers' struggling offense, but he could.
Tampa's sub-par attack could struggle more than usual against a solid Panthers' defense but my math model favors Carolina by just 5 1/2 points, which is what the point spread is. The reason for favoring Tampa Bay in this game is a technical. The Buccaneers apply to a very good 68-17-4 ATS situation and a 70-21 ATS situation that both play on losing teams as a road dogs after a loss when facing another losing team.
I'm going to resist making this game a Best Bet because it doesn't look likely that Talib will play and he held Panthers' star WR Steve Smith to just 1 catch in the first meeting. I actually adjusted my math assuming Talib will be out, but I'm concerned that he could be worth more than I adjusted for. I'll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion based on the strong situation.
Denver (-5.0) 27 KANSAS CITY 16
I mentioned last week that Denver really hadn't been playing as poorly as their results during their 4 game losing streak and the Broncos are certainly better than an improving but still bad Chiefs' team. The improvement for Kansas City is on offense, as the rushing attack is better without Larry Johnson and the pass attack has been better since Chris Chambers arrived from San Diego in a trade. However, the suspension of top WR Dwayne Bowe almost takes away the entire value from the addition of Chambers. My math model favors Denver by 7 points, as Denver's mediocre offense should move the ball well against a bad Chiefs' defense (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team) while the stout Broncos' defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team) limits a still bad KC attack that I rate at 0.6 yppl worse than average even with the recent improvements. There are situations that favor both sides, but Denver applies to a 36-6-4 ATS situation that is stronger than the 41-19 ATS angle that the Chiefs apply to. Kansas City still only 5-31 straight up in their last 36 games and the Chiefs are 0-9 ATS when not an underdog more than 6 points against a team with a win percentage of .400 or higher. In other words, the Chiefs usually need more than 6 points to cover against average or good teams. I'll consider Denver a Strong Opinion at -5 or less in this game and as a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.
CLEVELAND (+13.5) 17 San Diego 24
San Diego has won 6 consecutive games and is coming off consecutive blowout wins over divisional foes Denver and Kansas City. If ever there was a time to relax this would be it - facing a horrible Cleveland team as a big favorite. Teams on a winning streak that won at home the previous week are just 17-43-2 ATS as road favorites of 10 points or more, so history certainly has proven this to be a flat spot for the Chargers. This season teams in that spot are 1-2 ATS with Philadelphia losing straight up at Oakland, New Orleans struggling to beat the Rams 28-23 and Green Bay beating up on Detroit on Thanksgiving (national TV generally helps to avoid a letdown, as the angle is just 4-6 on Thursday and Monday games). The Chargers also apply to a negative 25-66 ATS situation that plays against big favorites after winning and covering consecutive divisional games (Cincy losing straight up at Oakland applied to that angle). Both of my math models favor San Diego by only 11 1/2 points, so it appears as if there is some line value to go along with the favorable situations. I'll consider Cleveland a Strong Opinion at +12 points or more and I'd take Cleveland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
Sports Unlimited
5* New England Under
4* Arizona
3* San Fran Over
Underdog
Seattle Seahawks
Savannah Sports
3* San Diego -13.5
2* Cleveland Under 42.5
Jim Feist
Platinum - Seattle
Ben Burns
GOM - ARIZONA
Cleveland
SCORE
400 San Diego
What city ar you in? I want the under !
Having some power outages so be patient
No its snowing and blowing about 40mphWill be blowing in Seattle today 😉
So much for the wind sticking around. 🙁
What city ar you in? I want the under !
Having some power outages so be patient
No its snowing and blowing about 40mphWill be blowing in Seattle today 😉
So much for the wind sticking around. 🙁
God I hate sweating Unders. 😀