BRANDON LANG
200 DIME - INDY MONEY LINE
100 DIME - INDY Minus points
It's a mismatch.
After using the Colts over the Ravens and the Jets, I am fully confident they will not only win this game but they will win it by double digits.
Let's start with the first big advantage the Colts have over the Saints and that is the Indy offense versus the New Orleans defense.
Now playing at home with all the advantages you could ask for, New Orleans got torched by a 40-year-old quarterback to the tune of 28 for 46 good for 310 yards while the Vikings ran for another 165 yards for 475 yards total offense.
The Saints were outgained by 218 yards at home, were the beneficiary of 5 turnovers and still almost lost. Had the Vikings gone to Indy and give Peyton Manning 5 turnovers, what do you think the final score would have been? My point exactly.
The last team to be outgained by that type of margin was the '94 Chargers, who were drilled in the Super Bowl by the Niners 49-26 after being outgained in the AFC championship game by the Steelers 415-226.
If Brett Farve was able to have that kind of success, on the road, in the Superdome, against that crowd noise, I will gladly roll the dice with Peyton Manning on a neutral field against this Saints defense.
Indy is about matchups, about getting a matchup that favors them and then attacking it until you fix it and if you don't, Peyton will go there all day long, as evidenced by his performance in the AFC championship game versus the Jets.
New York double-teamed Clark and Wayne leaving Collie and Garcon in solo coverage and Manning hammered it all day long to the tune of Collie getting 7 catches for 123 yards while Garcon got 11 catches for 171.
You may shut down Wayne and you may shut down Clark, but you are not going to shut down all four of them, just ask the Jets, who went into Indy with the best pass defense in the NFL and were completely picked apart for 377 yards by Manning and allowed nearly 500 yards total offense.
In fact, in beating the Ravens 20-3, the Colts beat the best scoring defense in the NFL, a unit that was ranked 3rd overall in total defense, 3rd against the run and 8th against the pass.
In fact, in beating the Jets 30-17, the Colts beat the best defense in the NFL, the best pass defense in the NFL and the 8th best run defense.
Indy now steps way down to face a Saints defense ranked 25th best in the NFL. They have the league's 7th worst pass defense are just 21st against the run.
Washington's Jason Campbell, who is not to be confused with Peyton Manning, torched this Saints secondary to the tune of 30 of 42 for 367 yards. Folks, that is Jason Campbell we are talking about here.
Here is the reality facing the Saints in this football game: If they don't create turnovers in this game, they have no shot of winning this football game whatsoever. None. Zilch. Nada.
For New Orleans to win this game they need the Colts, like the Vikings before them, to beat themselves and as you saw versus two defenses far superior to the Saints in this postseason, the Colts will not do that.
In two playoff games the Colts have committed a total of 5 penalties. I am talking about 5 here folks and get a load of this next statistic because it will blow you away:
In the last 2 years Peyton Manning has handled the football over 2,000 times and you know how many times he has fumbled? Zero. None. Zip. Nada. Big fat donut.
The New Orleans Saints have matchup problems all over the field and they are going to have to blitz to get to Manning and as you saw with the Jets and Ravens, you don't get there, he will light you up. Simple as that.
Indy has one of the most underrated offensive lines in the NFL. All they do is protect Manning and give him time and there is no blitz package the Saints can come with that the Colts offense hasn't seen in the last two weeks. Nothing.
You give Peyton 10 possessions in this game he is going to score on at least 5 of them against this Saints defense if not more. That is how bad New Orleans matches up with this Indy offense.
As for the Colts defense, they are a lot better than people give them credit for, a lot faster than people give them credit for. and they are a very hard defense to go 80 yards against consistently over the course of a football game because they are so fundamentally sound.
If you think the Saints are going to consistently go on long drives over the course of 60 minutes in this football game against this defense, you are dead wrong. They are not disciplined enough to pull that off.
In fact, the Saints are not disciplined enough as a team to beat this Colts bunch. They are highly penalized and in my opinion, poorly coached.
Undefeated and facing Dallas at home the Saints were completely dominated and lost 24-17. Playing for homefield advantage the next week against Tampa Bay they were held scoreless in the 2nd half before losing in OT.
Think about that for a moment: Playing for homefield throughout the entire NFC playoffs they were shut out at home by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and lost. Wow.
Two Sundays ago they were dominated by the Vikings but luck was on their side. Well guess what folks, they won't have luck on their side today and they will be dominated much the way Dallas did to them.
Across the board Indy is the better coached team, with the better offensive and defensive lines and they have perhaps the best QB in NFL history going back to his 2nd Super Bowl facing an inferior defense with two weeks to prepare.
New Orleans will have some success offensively but it won't be enough to offset everything Manning will be able to do on the other side of the football. As you saw against the Vikings, this is a very average Saints defense.
We should have been treated to the Vikings and the Colts, Farve versus Manning and not the Aints versus the Colts and because of this, Peyton will methodically pick apart New Orleans all game long, slowly build a lead and milk it away in the 2nd half.
I view the Colts as a 18-0 football team and for sake of argument, if they were 18-0 what would this line be? My guess is Colts would be favored by 7 and I would have still laid it so this line move doesn't scare me at all.
Congratulations to owner Jim Irsay, who I know personally and is one of the most sincere and geniune men I have ever met. And congratulations to rookie head coach Jim Caldwell for your Super Bowl win today.
And last, but certainly not least, congrats to you Peyton Manning as you cement yourself today as the greatest NFL quarterback of all time with a performance of the ages against this Saints defense.
Last year my final predicted final score between Arizona and Pittsburgh was 23-20 Cardinals and I was 2:33 seconds away from being right on the money.
This year I say the Indianapolis Colts are your Super Bowl champions with a 34-20 victory.
FREE PICK: Saints/Colts UNDER
STU FEINER
500,000,000-Dime Super Bowl Private Play
Indianapolis Colts -5 and Indianapolis Colts Money Line
BIG AL
NFL PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR 79% L2 YRS
Colts/Saints Under
LENNY DEL GENIO
IND / NOS Under 56.5
We have cashed a big totals play on each team during the playoffs w/ the Under on Indy vs. Baltimore cashing by three touchdowns in the Divisional Round and the Over in Minnesota vs. New Orleans was our huge "VEGAS ICON" play. The Saints have gone Over in both playoff games thus far, but barely. Both games were a result of fast starts by both New Orleans and its opponents, who the Saints have allowed to score on their opening drives both times. Note that their have been 49 first quarter points scored in the two New Orleans playoff games thus far. In the other six quarters, there were just 69 total points scored and that's including an overtime period. The Super Bowl is such a different animal and with this being the Saints' first, there could be a touch of nerves. Nine of the last ten Super Bowls have seen seven or less points scored in the first quarter. Seven of those have seen three points or less. Most of this has to deal with the nerves involved. Ironically enough, the one exception to this rule was when the Colts played the Bears three years ago when 21 points were scored, but that was with a Devin Hester kick return on the opening play, meaning the Colts had to immediately answer and had a sense of urgency. This brings us to our next point. Everything would have to go right for this game to go Over the total, and we don't see it happening. We figure that this number will continue to climb, which is an added bonus to us, due to the public liking to play the Over. But four of the last five Super Bowls have gone Under and last year's would have too if not for the late scoring barrage that sent it over by four points. Take Under New Orleans/Indianapolis.
Primetime Sports Advisors
40 Units Indianapolis Colts -4.5
10 Units OVER 56.5
PROPS
Colts Longest Field Goal in game -130
YES fumble in the first half -110
Total Sacks in game OVER 3.5 +2.5
Peyton Manning TOTAL Pass Attempts OVER 36.5 -135
Donald Brown total rush attempts OVER 5 +120
Tony George
Saints + 6
This line may drop, so bet it early. Depends on late action but get it at 6 where ever you can. I can throw out stats through the roof here, HOWEVER the team with the better running game is the Saints, with a 2 back threat. The most explosive player on the field is Reggie Bush, and special teams will come into play. The QB with the lower interception rate is Drew Brees and he also has the higher passer rating. It is rare for a team that rushes the ball for less than 80 yards a game and have had trouble scoring lately rarely wins the big dance, and running will be key. Also the injury to Dwight Freeny is HUGE, and although he will take a cortisone shot before this game, he has not practiced in 2 weeks other than riding a stationary bike. All in all a nail biter and New Orleans knows how to play through adversity and I like their chances. A 3 point game one way or the other in my opinion. Running, QB, biggest playmakers, momentum, coaching, special teams all favors the Saints here. The facts do not lie. Play 1 Unit on New Orleans
2 Team 6 point Teaser, same Game. Tease the Total UP to 62.5 and Take the Under, and Tease the Saints to +12, play a half unit.
PROPS found at Sportbook.com - almost all books have similar props or the same. I would play no more than half unit each. My best prop bet would be Reggie Wayne total receiving yards.
Prop bet 1 - Will the Saints score in the first quarter - YES +105
Prop Bet 2 - Saints will score a first half rushing TD- YES +140
Prop Bet 3 -Peyton Manning longest completion play - Over 39.5 yards - YES -115
Prop bet 4 - Reggie Wayne TOTAL receiving yards OVER 77.5 - -120 (1 Unit Play)
Dave Malinsky
4* NEW ORLEANS over INDIANAPOLIS
It is absolutely no secret what the numbers 3 and 4 are worth in the NFL. When they are established as win numbers in a competitive game it means that we have a lot going for us, and it is the process that made those numbers available of the New Orleans side of this equation that has created extreme value for this game. There was a lot of discussion on the day of the Conference Championship games as to where the Super Bowl would open, and the back-room consensus was a -2.5 with the Colts over either the Saints or Vikings, or a -3 that would be shaded via the money line towards the underdogs. Our own contribution to the processes was that it was the proper range, based on nearly five months of watching the teams play. And once Indianapolis had the Jets firmly in hand, we saw one of the strongest stores open the game at -2.5 for a while, before taking it down when the Vikings/Saints kicked off. It was a good line. Indianapolis has had a special season from Peyton Manning (back in an October Verities & Balderdash column we were noting that he was playing as well as any QB we had ever charted), and deserved the role of the slight favorite, but the Colts are not an overpowering side.
So fast forward and the markets are sitting at -5, with our hopes of getting +6's negated by Dwight Freeney likely to be only a minimal factor on Sunday. The +3 and +4 have turned into New Orleans win tickets, not necessarily because of what had happened over the course of the season, but rather the fact that the Saints appeared to be as much lucky as good in escaping vs. Minnesota. That is an awfully big adjustment off of a single result, but as is so often the case, the markets can be overly influenced by what they saw last. So what is the proper context? We do not know who the better team is, and one side has been established as a substantial favorite despite the fact that their ground game is much weaker, and that they are going to have a difficult time getting the opposing offense off the field.Manning has been absolutely brilliant this season, overcoming the absence of a reliable ground game (that is an understatement, with the Colts gaining 129 fewer yards overland than any team in the league, with only the Chargers getting less per attempt), and a lack of depth and experience in the receiving corps. It was his savvy that led to a remarkable run of 7-0 in games decided by four points or less, and they compiled six wins in single digits against opponents that did not make the playoffs. This is a team that does not have much margin for error, especially with Freeneys lessened status taking away a key cog defensively, and their reputation is in conflict with their reality in terms of the public perceptions in the upward surge of this line.
So lets go to the matchups. The overall defensive numbers for the Saints are not special because of a weakness against the run, but that soft spot will not be exposed here. What this group does do is generate a pass rush and make plays, with 35 sacks and a sparkling ratio of 26 interceptions vs. only 15 TD passes allowed. And most important for our purposes, those numbers were not just piled up with big leads against weak opponents. Down the stretch and in the playoffs they faced Tom Brady, Kurt Warner and Brett Favre, and in those three games generated 10 turnovers, and a fantastic ratio of five interceptions vs. only two TD passes allowed. You do not expect Manning to be forced into mistakes, but the same can be said about those other three savvy veterans that struggled so much vs. this defense.
When the Saints have the ball it is a different story. Consider this pointspread in light of a team that ran for over 2,000 (#4 in the NFL) yards at 4.5 per carry vs. a defense that allowed over 2,000 (#24) at 4.3. That matchup provides an awful lot of leverage for Drew Brees and the passing game, creating extra time in the pocket via play action, and then it is Brees and his 70.6 percent accuracy vs. a defense that allowed 63.8. And with Freeney unlikely to be a significant factor (as a speed rusher that ankle injury takes away the heart of his game), we expect to see the Indy defense on their heels throughout. While their overall numbers in the regular season were respectable they did not face a lot of major challenges, and were nothing special when they did have to step up (like the 34 points and 477 yards they allowed to Brady and the Patriots). And while the Saints were having to deal with Warner and Favre in the playoffs, Indy faced Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez, with the gap in experience between those duos about as wide as can be possible.
The bottom line is that the Colts do not bring advantages anywhere near what this pointspread indicates, and even past experience is not a huge factor, with only 19 players on this roster holdovers from their Super Bowl win on this field four years ago. This is absolutely anyone?s game to win outright, and it would be no surprise at all to see Brees and all of those New Orleans weapons in the skill positions dictate the flow throughout against a favorite that brings holes that can be exploited.
WAYNE ROOT
Millionaire - Saints +4.5
BEATYOURBOOKIE
100* Play New Orleans (-2.5) over Philadelphia
100* Play Cornell (-21) over Yale
VEGAS SPORTS EXPERTS
10* Take New Jersey (-200) over Toronto
10* Take Minnesota (+10.5) over Dallas
10* Take Brown (+4.5) over Columbia
SIXTH SENSE
3% NEW ORLEANS +5
INDIANAPOLIS -5 NEW ORLEANS 56.5
Colts struggled early on against the Jets in their Championship game but scored the games final 24 points for an easy 30-17 victory. They out gained the Jets 7.1yppl to 6.5yppl. But, a broken coverage 80 yard touchdown pass and a wildcat look pass from Brad Smith for 45 yards amounted for 125 of their 388 yards. Take away those two plays and they averaged just 4.5yppl. While you can’t erase those plays, they aren’t typical plays, at least not the wildcat look. The long 80 yard touchdown pass could be a concern against an explosive passing offense like the Saints. The Colts averaged 8.8yps against a tough Jets pass defense and ran for 4.2ypr while limiting a solid Jets rushing offense to 3.0ypr.
Meanwhile, the Saints escaped with an OT victory over the Vikings, 31-28. Minnesota out gained NO 5.8yppl to 4.7yppl, out rushed them 4.6ypr to 3.0ypr and out passed them 6.7yps to 5.9yps. The Vikings were minus four in the turnover category and that cost them the game. Much was made about the Saints defense being controlled by the Vikings but they were actually an average defense against the Vikings. It was the Saints offense that disappointed in that game. The Vikings were averaging about 5.7yppl and they gained 5.8yppl in that game. They averaged 6.9yps and gained 6.7yps in the game and they averaged 4.1ypr and gained 4.6ypr in the game. So, the Saints defense, which was almost completely healthy for that game, played the Vikings as an average defense, although their ability to beat up Brett Favre, played a huge role in the outcome of the game. I’m not too concerned about the Saints offense because it has played well against good defenses this year but it definitely underperformed in that game.
Using regular season stats during meaningful games, Indy averaged 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr. They averaged 7.6yps against 6.3yps and 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense, Indy allows just 4.2ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. The Saints run the ball better than Indy at 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, throw the ball better at 7.9yps against 6.3yps and are better overall on offense at 6.4yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense isn’t as good as the underrated Colts defense. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. Those numbers aren’t exactly accurate because the Saints were hit hard on defense with injuries during the middle to late part of the season. The Saints played five games where they were missing three or more of their starters on defense this year. Their rough stretch at Washington and Atlanta saw them play without four and three of their starters respectively, including missing three starters in the secondary against the Redskins. While there is no question their defense isn’t as good as the Colts, they aren’t as bad as they looked the second half of the season with all of their injuries.
Numbers for this game favor the Colts by one point and predict about 59 points. NO qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 58-23-3, including 2-1 in this year’s playoffs. These teams played four teams this year at the same location and the Saints fared even in those games. They defeated NE 38-17 while Indy won 35-34. NO defeated the Jets 24-10 while Indy won 30-17. They defeated Miami 46-34, while Indy won 27-23. NO defeated the Rams 28-23 while Indy destroyed the Rams 42-6. I don’t believe this is a great resource to determine the winner of this game but the Saints certainly do not lose with this scenario. NO won their games by an average of 34-21, while Indy won by an average of 34-20. Looking at the median score, it was NO 33-20 and Indy 33-20 so nothing there that would indicate the Colts should be favored by five points in this game. I left off the Buffalo game because Indy pulled their starters.
Bottom line is the Saints run the ball better, throw the ball better and are good enough on defense to stay in this game. While the Saints defense isn’t as good as the Colts, the fact they can run the ball is huge because it gives the Saints multiple ways to attack a good Colts defense, which improves their chances of moving the ball. While the Colts are a one dimensional team, they throw the ball so well and Peyton Manning is so good, it doesn’t hurt them like it would another team. And, the fact their defense plays so well, works in their favor.
The lone concern here is I don’t have the best defense but they are close enough, when combining the fact I am getting five points to make this a good value wager. While the numbers support the over and I think it could be high scoring, the total is simply set too high for me to bite on. Everything needs to almost go perfect for this game to go over the total. With two explosive offenses, it’s very likely both teams will sit back in a cover two type defense and keep everything in front of them, forcing teams to dink and dunk the ball down the field. That will eat up clock and if some of those drives end up as field goals instead of touchdowns, it could hurt the chances of this game going over the total. Solid value play on the underdog.
NEW ORLEANS 33 INDIANAPOLIS 30
NorthCoast
Props
SINGLE play: Largest lead of the game UNDER 16.5 (even)
DOUBLE play: New Orleans + .5 pt in the 4Q (-130)
SINGLE play: Saints/Colts UNDER 2.5 sacks (+120)
DOUBLE play: The Saints WILL score a 1Q TD (+110)
DOUBLE play: Marques Colston OVER 4.5 receptions (-140)
TRIPLE play: Reggie Bush OVER 53.5 combined rush/rec yds (-130)
SINGLE play: Will 4Q be highest scoring Q - YES (+210)
SINGLE play: Will both teams make FG’s of 33 yds or longer - YES (+200)
Double play: Drew Brees longest completion OVER 38.5 yds (-125)
DOUBLE play: Pierre Thomas WILL score a TD (+140)
Triple play: Manning more gross passing yds in 2H (even)
Double play: YES there will be a DEF / ST TD (+145)
TRIPLE play: Reggie Wayne OVER 5.5 receptions (-115)
SINGLE play: Jeremy Shockey WILL score a TD (+330)
DOUBLE play: Reggie Wayne WILL score a TD (even)
DOUBLE play: Jonathan Vilma OVER 6.5 total tackles (+105)
Scott Delaney
80 Dime - New Orleans
ASA
Colts/Saints Under
FRIENDS OF MIKE LEE
The 2010 Super Bowl sets up as a championship fight between the two highest ranked contenders, a
rather rare occurrence. In keeping with the prizefighting analogy I thought long and hard to come up
with the appropriate comparison and have settled on the classic and now almost mythical
confrontation between George Foreman and Muhammad Ali in Zaire, Africa. Lest there be any
confusion concerning my point of view, I feel that New Orleans will play the Foreman role, the Colts
Ali.
Like many Colt games I start out thinking that the other side represents tremendous value here. The
Saints offense appears unstoppable with Drew Brees throwing to a deep, big and talented group of
receivers, all of whom are capable of making big plays and a running game that complements things
perfectly with a bruising inside runner like Pierre Thomas and the game breaking speed of Reggie
Bush who can score every time he touches the football. New Orleans, in addition, rates a huge edge
in the kicking game with Bush returning kicks and a field goal kicker who probably has 7-10 yards
greater range than the Colts’ ancient Matt Stover. On defense, the Who Dats are healthier than
they’ve been in a long while and will do everything possible to put pressure on Peyton Manning while
relying on Darren Sharper and Co. to rein in (somewhat) the Colt receivers and force turnovers as is
their customary style. They aren’t above taking a cheap shot or two either and I expect The Colt QB to
take a couple of nasty hits during the game. It’s simply too tough to defend this offensive juggernaut
and with Dwight Freeny out or significantly impaired it is hard to understand why the Saints are taking
5-5 ½ here when the likely should be favored. Easy choice, right?
While the Saints were tearing things up the Colts seemed to be life and death most weeks to pull out
victories. Funny thing, whenever they cared, they won. Peyton Manning seemed more like Houdini at
times pulling one escape after another until Indy, at 14-0, decided to shut things down and prepare for
the playoffs. They left most with the impression that they are still a (fine-tuned) finesse team that
needs everything to go right to win games, a team built for regular season glory but not tough enough
to go all the way. Aside from Freeny (and the absent Bob Sanders) the defense is anonymous (or
“average” as someone from CBS Sportline wrote in a very negative piece the other day), they have no
running game, can’t return a kick and have a social security recipient kicking field goals. How can this
team be favored?
Well, let’s look a little bit deeper. The Saints started their offensive circus against Detroit and their
rookie QB, then crushed Philly (McNabb got hurt). The defense put in their best efforts at Buffalo and
then at home against the Jets (rookie QB with the training wheels still on). They hung beatings on the
Giants (no defense), Miami and Atlanta (no defense). After that things slowed a bit (or more) with the
takedown of New England representing the high point and a 17-24 loss to the Cowboys the low (They
WERE trying in that one, just got beat). Looking back on the body of work they played quite a few
stiffs (especially in retrospect) with the New England win standing out and the Dallas loss leaving a
question mark. Aside from Dallas they played two playoff teams (Jets, Philly)……in short, the going was
pretty easy. They faced an Arizona team that was completely out on its’ feet in round two of the
playoffs and beat the Viks in a game better described as the Viks beating themselves. The Colts only
faced two playoff teams “in earnest” (Arizona and Baltimore), beating one soundly and squeaking past
the other. They did, however, face the prolific Texans (a LOT like the Saints) twice, the Jags twice
and the Titans twice, along with Denver (when they were good) and New England, winning them all.
They played a (surprisingly) dominant DEFENSIVE game against the powerful Raven rushing attack
in playoff round two and then hung 30 on the Jets top rated defense. In both playoff games taking the
points seemed like the obvious way to go and in both cases it was the wrong way to go.
Make no mistake: while New Orleans’ defense is far from perfect the Saints sport an extremely
impressive offense and a superior return game. Drew Brees is both a fiery leader and a great
quarterback... I DO have some concern about his arm strength however as a number of his throws
were not particularly sharp in the Minnesota game (I am certain he relished and needed the two weeks
off). I can not see this team being “stopped” when they have the ball. Very well coached team, should
be well-prepared here. Very tough to beat. And yet…
As we have written countless times Peyton Manning is the supreme hustler. He dares you to fade
him, he beats you and you come back for more. I have to laugh about some of my “analysis” when it
comes to handicapping his games but I’ve made a lot of money going with this guy whenever I feel the
deck is stacked against him. Indy’s defense is better than rated (faster and somewhat more physical)
AND better coached than recent additions (less predictable) The O-line is solid, the receivers
disciplined and sure-handed. In short, the Colts have enough of a supporting cast to help Manning
grab his second Super Bowl and, in so doing, add to the evidence that he is the best to ever play his
position.
Foreman/Ali. The Saints will pound, they will throw bombs, they will score with heavy blows. The
Colts will duck; they will stick and move, they might even get pinned on the ropes. Peyton will jab, jab,
jab, scoring here, scoring there. In the end the Saints defense will wilt while Indy absorbs the early
beating and eventually perseveres. Should be a great game.
COLTS 38 SAINTS 31
Although playing over in the Super Bowl is generally considered the “dummy’s way” (and the number
is juiced up) it is hard to fathom either team scoring less than 24 here. Since one team has to win I’d
say the “minimum” final score would be in the area of 27-24, several points south of the number. In
my local “box pool” I actually took 73 and 74 (41-33, something like that) which I have tempered just a
bit here. I actually think a couple of the kickoff props are pretty good if you like the over, especially the
OVER NINE TOTAL KICKOFFS which seems quite appealing. Since you’ve got two in the bag to
start (if I have to explain you don’t watch football!) you need only a combined eight scores (TD’s or
field goals) to get the money. You could reach that mark with 24 total points (8 field goals)!! A 27-24
game would have ELEVEN kickoffs which seems highly probable to me.