GAMBLERS DATA
5* Indianapolis Colts -3 (1ST HALF)
4* NO Saints/Indianapolis Colts un 28.5 (1ST HALF)
4* Indianapolis Colts -3 (2ND HALF)
4* Longest run from Bush over 9 yards -140
Don Wallace Sports
New Orleans +5.5
DWAYNE BRYANT
NOS / IND Under 57
I studied this game for days and from every conceivable angle. I would've preferred to have played a side, but I can see this game ending too many ways. It's my opinion that the best value play on this game is on the UNDER.
It's easy to see why the public likes the Over. We have two pass-happy teams led by two of the best QBs in the game today -- Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. And we've seen some pretty high-scoring games lately, which definitely influences the public. We saw Arizona and Green Bay combine for 96 points. We also saw Arizona and New Orleans combine for 59 points. And we saw Minnesota and New Orleans combine for 59 points. So this line is inflated due to public perception.
This is essentially a road game for both teams, so I like to look at how these teams performed on the road this season. Saints road games averaged a total of 53 points, while Colts road games averaged a total of just 47 points. Both defenses did their part on the road, as the Saints allowed 21 points per game, while the Colts allowed just 19 points per game.
Despite having offenses that are very well-known for their passing prowess, I expect to see plenty of each team's running game. And with a total this high, we only need a couple drives to end with a FG to keep this Under the total. Surprisingly, the Colts have had quite a few drives end in FGs this season, and I look for that to continue. And the Colts have been more of a drive-oriented offense than a quick-strike offense this season. I also expect the Colts speedy defense to step up, avoid giving up the big play, and make the Saints earn every point.
Bottom line: I think this game starts slowly, as each team tries to shake off the nerves and get a feel for what the other side will try to do. Like I said, it's only going to take a couple of drives ending in FGs (or better yet, missed FGs) for this game to stay Under the total.
The first quarter will go a long way in determining where this total ends up. 14 points or more in the first quarter and I think we're in trouble. But like I said, I expect a slow start. I see this game ending with abou…t 47 to 52 points, so take the UNDER.
PROP BETS (just small action for me to add to the excitement & enjoyment)
1. #126 No team 3 straight scores +150
2. #2041 A FG made under 24½ yards +110
3. #2060 IND makes longest FG -115
4. #2119 Any punt results in a touchback -130
5. #2143 NOR longest punt return -110
JEFF BENTON
60 DIME: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Before I break this Super Bowl down and explain to you why the Colts will win this thing by double digits, let’s first start with the Dwight Freeney issue. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that Indy’s All-Pro pass-rusher has a bum ankle and hasn’t practiced in two weeks. Do I think Freeney will play today? I do. Do I think he will be effective? I’d be surprised if he was. Do I think it will matter? Not nearly as much as many other “experts” think it will. And here’s why: Does the name Bob Sanders ring a bell? It should, because it was just a couple of years ago that Colts’ hard-hitting safety was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
You haven’t thought much about Sanders this year, have you? That’s because he’s been out all season with an injury (out of sight, out of mind). Yet without one of their two defensive leaders (Freeney being the other), the Colts had the eighth-best scoring defense in the entire league (allowing less than 20 ppg), they won all 16 games this year that they’ve tried to win and they’re in the Super Bowl. The point? As much as any defense in the league, Indy’s is a “system” defense – it’s a defense that succeeds because GM Bill Polian drafts and signs players with a specific skill set who are best suited to fit the Colts scheme. So unlike most teams, they can survive when a Pro Bowler goes down – they’ve proven so in the case of Sanders, and they’ll prove it today if Freeney isn’t a factor.
Now, let’s get to my four reasons why I love the Colts today.
In Manning I Trust: Hate to start off doing what everyone on the planet has been doing for the last two weeks, and gush over Peyton Manning. But I must. To say Manning is playing the best football of his Hall of Fame career is a colossal understatement – it might even be an understatement to say that he’s playing the best football of any quarterback in NFL history. To watch him carve up the Ravens (68.2 percent completion rate, 246 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) and Jets (66.7 percent completions, 377 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) in those two playoff wins was like watching Picasso create a masterpiece from a blank canvas.
Consider that against an opponent (Baltimore) that ranked third in total defense, third in scoring defense and eighth in passing defense and an opponent (Jets) that ranked first in total defense, first in scoring defense and first in passing defense and allowed just eight TD passes in the regular season, Manning did the following: He connected on better than two-thirds of passes for 623 yards with 5 TDs and 1 INT – and the Colts tallied a combined 50 points.
Now he gets to go up against a Saints team that ranked 25th out of 32 NFL clubs in total defense (giving up 357.8 yards per game) and 26th in passing defense (giving up 235.6 yards per game through the air). It’s a defense that, as you know, got absolutely shredded by 40-year-old Brett Favre and the Vikings in the NFC Championship game to the tune of 475 yards (310 passing, 165 rushing). Even more disturbing, it’s a defense that got sliced and diced this year by the likes of Atlanta’s Chris Redman (23-for-32 for 303 passing yards in relief of Matt Ryan), Washington’s Jason Campbell (30-for-42 for 367 yards and 3 TDs), St. Louis’ Marc Bulger (26-for-40 for 298 yards and 2 TDs) and Tampa Bay rookie Josh Freeman (21-for-31 for 271 yards).
No disrespect to Redman, Campbell, Bulger and Freeman, but they ain’t Peyton Manning. Simply put, he’s going to have a field day against this below-average New Orleans defense. And yes, I know that Saints defensive coordinator Greg Williams (whom I praised a lot when I backed New Orleans in that 45-14 rout of Arizona in the first round of the playoffs) has said he wants his defense to deliver “remember-me” shots to Manning. Well, let me just make these two points: 1) Manning was sacked just 10 times in the regular season, and while he was dropped twice each in victories over the Ravens and Jets – two defenses who are much better at pressuring the QB than New Orleans – he was hardly rattled as evidenced by the stats I mentioned above (623 passing yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT, 50 points); and 2) Manning is extremely familiar with Williams-coached defenses from the D-coordinator’s days with division rivals Jacksonville and Tennessee. He’s faced a Williams defense seven times, winning five of those games while completing 65 percent of his throws for an average of 285 passing ypg with 13 TDs and 4 INTs. And those defenses sacked Manning just seven times in those five games.
Of course, the counter-argument that Saints supporters will make is that New Orleans has a bend-but-don’t break opportunistic defense – as the Vikings found out two Sundays ago. Very true. New Orleans lives off turnovers, and the four they forced against Minnesota are the ONLY reason why they’re here in this game. And that brings me to my next point …
Don’t Drop the Ball: Peyton Manning and Brett Favre are both first-ballot Hall-of-Famers. But the difference is, you would NEVER, EVER see Manning make the throws under duress that Favre made two weeks ago. It’s just not going to happen. If the Saints get to Manning, he’ll eat the ball or throw it away. He will not make across-the-body, over-the-middle throws that are easily intercepted and kill his team’s championship hopes. Manning’s just not wired that way. And while he did average about an interception per game this season and may throw one today, I can assure you, he won’t be careless with the football in critical situations like most QBs are (including Favre).
At the same time, Indy’s running backs and receivers don’t put the ball on the turf like the Vikings. In fact, the Colts had just seven fumbles in the regular season, losing three. Only the Chargers (five total fumbles, three lost) were better.
In a nutshell, the only way the Saints can win this game is if they continue their ball-hawking ways. Favre, Adrian Peterson and the Vikings obliged in that department. Manning and the Colts will not.
Getting Defensive: When you have arguably the greatest quarterback in NFL history on your roster, obviously the majority of the attention will be focused on the offense. That’s the reality for Indianapolis. Fact is, though, the Colts’ defense has been wildly underrated. While they were in the middle of the pack in yards allowed (passing, rushing and overall), they finished eighth in points allowed (19.2 ppg). Take away the last two games of the regular season (when they gave up 29 points to the Jets and 30 to the Bills with the starters sitting out five of those eight quarters) and add the two playoff wins over the Jets and Ravens (who combined for 20 points) and Indy’s scoring defense drops to 16.8 ppg, which would put the Colts fourth in the league standings.
And if you eliminate those last two regular-season games, the Colts held 12 of their other 16 opponents to 17 points or less.
Yes, Drew Brees is phenomenal and the Saints’ offense is prolific. And New Orleans will put some points on the board in this game. But Indy’s defense, even without Freeney, will not get torched for 30-plus points (only one team has done that to the Colts all year). Keep in mind, too, that in the NFC title game – against a stout Vikings defense – New Orleans mustered just 257 total yards, with Brees throwing for just 197 yards.
Are You Experienced?: Don’t discount the been-there, done-that aspect of the Super Bowl. It is a big deal, and Indy’s got the obvious experience edge having played in this game four years ago (and in the same venue, too). Manning is one of 25 Colts that played in that 29-17 win over the Bears (who had as little Super Bowl experience as Indy that day). Guess how many Saints have played in the big game? Three.
Again, it’s a big deal – especially when you consider how nerves got to the Saints in the NFC title game. And that was played in the Superdome in New Orleans, the best home-field edge in the NFL. And yet the Saints were nervous from the outset and got thoroughly outplayed. Now they’re going to a neutral site, outdoors, to face an opponent that has been on this huge stage before. And this much we know for sure: If the Saints freeze under the white-hot spotlight early on and fall behind by a couple of scores, this thing will be over in a hurry.
Bottom line, guys: The Saints have no business being here – you know it, I know it, and they know it. The only reason they are here is because they caught EVERY break imaginable in the Vikings game (right down to winning the coin flip before overtime, followed by three questionable officials calls/decisions that preceded the game-winning field goal). Massive breaks like that happen once every few years in the NFL. They don’t happen twice in two weeks – not against a Peyton Manning-led team that’s won 25 of its last 26 games that it has tried to win.
The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meaningful games (i.e. not counting the last two regular-season contests against Buffalo and New York); they’re 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight playoff contests; and the SU winner has covered the spread in all 17 postseason games Indy has played with Manning under center.
Indy jumps out to an early lead, milks the clock in the fourth quarter and wins it 34-20.
MARK FOX
Saint vs. Colts
Pick: Colts -4.5
The COLTS are 7-2-1 ATS in their L10 overall games
The Colts are 6-2 ATS in their L8 playoff games
The Colts are 5-2 ATS in their L7 playoff games as a favorite
The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their L5 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0
The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their L5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0
The Colts are 3-0-1 ATS in their L4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their L6 games vs. a team with a winning record
The Colts are 6-0-2 ATS in their L8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
The Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their L11 games on grass
The Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their L9 games as a favorite
The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their L6 games following a ATS win
The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their L5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game
The Colts are 8-2-1 ATS in their L11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
The Colts are 15-5-2 ATS in their L22 games following a SU win
The NEW ORLEANS SAINTS are 1-6 ATS in their L7 overall games
The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their L5 playoff games
The Saints are 1-3-1 ATS in their L5 games as an underdog
The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their L5 games following a ATS loss
The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their L6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their L4 games following a SU win
The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their L5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
In their L3 matchups, the COLTS are a PERFECT 3-0 SU & ATS vs. the Saints (41-10 in '07, 27-14 in '06 & 55-21 in '03)!!!
SUPER BOWL XLIV Props!!
WILL BOTH TEAMS MAKE 33 YARD OR LONGER FIELD GOALS?
YES (+190)
REGGIE BUSH (NO) FIRST RECEPTION
Over 5.5 (-110)
PEYTON MANNING (IND) FIRST RUSHING ATTEMPT
Over 0.5 (+250)
SHORTEST TD OF GAME
Over 1.5 (+130)
Wayne Root
Millionaire - New Orleans Saints
It would be even higher rated...but Peyton Manning is just too good...he worries me...he might be the greatest QB and field general EVER...so that`s the only thing standing in the way of a Saints upset. But I will say that Indy is the worst "PERFECT" team I`ve ever seen. They ended last season 9-0...and started this season 14-0. That`s 23-0 in games they cared about winning! But they did it with smoke, mirrors and one amazing future Hall of Famer. They are built around one strength- Manning- which masks a very average team... with a inferior running game...and a pedestrian defense. They are also led by an inferior rookie coach Jim Caldwell who before this season...had a record of 26-63 as a Head Coach (of Wake Forest). But with Manning calling the plays...who needs a Head Coach? Give credit for 14-0 under Caldwell...as well as 9-0 to end 2008 under Tony Dungy...to Manning. Now don`t get me wrong- the Saints "D" is even worse (in every category) than the Colts, but that doesn`t matter. Against Manning, no "D" is safe. So the fact that the Saints` "D" is bad is actually not a factor in my pick. Manning will score 4 to 5 (or more) touchdowns against ANY "D"...good or bad. No one can stop him. The fact that our Saints` "D" is bad got us an extra 4 1/2 points. I`ll take it!!! But the Saints statistically inferior "D" does 2 things well - cause turnovers and pressure the QB. So I give the Saints as my upset pick because I think that Drew Brees can match Peyton TD for TD. And if our Saints get even 1 turnover...we win the game. Stop Manning ONCE and go the other way... plus 4½ or 5 points...the odds are greatly in our favor of beating the spread. Whoever has the ball last probably wins this game. So bet with some caution. Because it could be tied with 2 minutes to go...and Manning could throw a 7 as the clock runs out...beating the spread. That`s our worry. We might have the correct side and still lose the game to the greatest QB ever. But our ace in the hole is that +4½ point spread. Manning might score a field goal on that last drive...cementing his place in history...but clinching the "W" for us! One other factor I`ve found...the team that has more come-from-behind wins during the season has won 8 of the last 9 Super Bowl OUTRIGHT since `2000...and even the one exception...covered the spread as a dog (Carolina vs. New England). New Orleans has 7 come from behind wins this season...vs. only 4 for Indy. That`s a big difference. The prior teams with that big a difference in this trend all won the Super Bowl. All this trend really means is that with Brees` firepower, we are never out of the game. Take the 4½ as a gift. Let`s hope it goes up to +5.
PROPS
1) SAINTS - 7.5 PAYS +475
2) WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE FINAL 2 MINS OF THE FIRST HALF? NO PAYS +250
3) SAINTS WIN 1ST HALF AND THE GAME...BOTH MUST HAPPEN. PAYS 4 TO 1
4) MARGIN OF VICTORY WITH SAINTS WINNING...BY 5 TO 8 POINTS
PAYS 8 TO 1
5)THE FINAL POINTS SCORED BY THE SAINTS....35 PAYS 12/1
ANTHONY REDD
15-Dime - Saints-Colts Under
5-Dime - Notre Dame
5-Dime - North Carolina
5-Dime - Indiana
RINKPLAY SPORTS
3* Pittsburgh Penguins
NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
5* Indianapolis -5
4* New Orleans/Indianapolis OVER 56½
3* Syracuse -4½
RATED PICKS
5 Units Colts -5
Marc Lawrence
100% Perfect Angle Super Bowl Key Play!
Play On: New Orleans
A funny thing happened on the way to the Super Bowl this year – a pair of No.1 seeds actually made it for the first time in 16 years. Thus, it’s only fitting that the two teams who flirted with perfection this season – the Saints started 13-0; the Colts 14-0 – meet in Miami to decide the NFL championship.
The logical place to begin examining this matchup is to look at the engines that drive both highly-productive scoring machines: quarterbacks Manning and Brees. For two signal callers that operate mostly in weatherproof facilities, they both fare quite well playing outdoors. Current NFL MVP Manning has gone 41-22 SU outdoors, including 16-5 SU and 14-7 ATS versus .700 or greater opposition. Those numbers improve to an eye-catching 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS when the Colts are a pick or favored. Though Brees has compiled a mediocre 27-24 SU mark away from the Superdome, he does own a 30-17-4 ATS record away outdoors, including 12-2 ATS off back-to-back wins. But when it comes to squaring off against tough competition, the New Orleans QB has rung the ATS register with greater frequency. Brees is 19-5 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents (5-0 SU and ATS this season and 19-2 ATS when his team scores more than 14 points) while Manning has struggled to a 9-17 ATS mark versus comparable foes, including 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS if his adversary is off an ATS loss. Yes, we’re aware that Peyton is 16-0 SU this season in contests where he’s played the entire game. However, seven of those wins came by just 4 or less points.
The Colts own a flawless 5-0 SU and ATS series edge of late over New Orleans but the teams have met only once in the previous six seasons. More revealing is the fact that each team faced five common opponents this season. The Saints went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning the stats by an average +78 YPG while Indy went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS, losing the stats by an average -12 YPG… thus advantage New Orleans. The boys from the Big Easy look even more impressive when we note their domination of the AFC over the past two seasons: 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS. Those numbers include a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in 2009 with every win coming by double-digits. When matched up against fellow playoff teams from this season, both teams posted identical 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS records. Though technically a ‘rookie’ head coach, Indy’s Jim Caldwell is finishing his eighth year with the franchise and served as assistant head coach to Tony Dungy since the 2005 season. Fourth-year Saints head coach Sean Payton has excelled in today’s role, going 10-4 SU and ATS versus a team off back-to-back wins (5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS if the Saints are also off consecutive wins). Payton is also 5-0 SU and ATS against AFC opposition in games when both teams are off a win in his NFL career. New Orleans has been an underdog only once this season and that was in its final game of the year against Carolina, basically a ‘lay down’ affair where Payton rested many key players.
Indianapolis will have to buck some strong trends if they expect cash as favorites. Super Bowl chalk of 7 or less points has gone 6-11-1 ATS, including 5-7 SU and 2-9-1 ATS when playing off back-to-back home games. In fact, the last 14 Super Bowls have seen the favorite go 10-4 SU but just 4-8-2 ATS. And if the Colts are held to their season average of 26 points, it could be lights out for Indy: the last fifteen favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-13-1 ATS!
Of course, we can’t end the discussion without offering up one of our INCREDIBLE STATS: Since 1995 there have been seven Super Bowl games when one team rushed the ball for 4.0 or more YPR (Saints) on the season versus an opponent that allowed 4.0 or more YPR (Colts). The favorite in these games is 0-4-1 ATS; the underdog is 2-0 ATS – winning both games in straight-up fashion – as double-digit dogs, no less! Our database adds further support by pointing out the NFC teams are 18-11 SU and 17-10-2 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1980, including 7-1-1 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents.
The bottom line is laying points with a team that owns as many holes as the Colts is a recipe for disaster. We recommend a 3-unit play on New Orleans.
NORTHCOAST
PROPS
Single Play - saints and colts will have under 2- combined sacks-take the under
Double Play -the saints will score a 1st quarter touchdown-yes
Single Play - the 4th quarter will be the highest scoring quarter-yes +210
Single Play - both teams will kick field goals longer than 33 yards-yes they will +180
The Fall Miracle
Indianapolis -210
New Orleans/Indianapolis Under 57
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
3* Indianapolis
ATS Lock Club
5 Units Indy -4
3 Units Over 56
3 Units Maryland -6.5