Opposite Action Plays
Indianapolis Colts -4.5
Al DeMarco
15 Dime - Indianapolis Colts
Experience. It's the factor that means the most to me when breaking down this game.
If you watched my video today, I hit you with lots of trends and stats pertaining to both teams and the Super Bowl itself. But the one that matters the most is this:
Teams making their Super Bowl debut against an experienced
title game opponent are 6-11 ATS.
Before I got into this business I used to be a sports journalist and time after time you'd hear about how teams didn't handle the bye week between the Conference Championships and the title game that well, how they struggled with preparation schedules while inexperienced coaches called others in their ranks for tips and advice. You'd see how the players had to deal with off-field distractions in various cities - which I personally believe were more prevalent in years past - and family situations (arranging for tickets for family and friends, arranging travel, etc.). With the explosion of the national media coverage over the past 15 years, the so-called "media-circus" has increased as well.
For those reasons above, and so many more, I simply like the Colts, who beat the Bears on this same field in Miami three Super Bowls ago. Think about this: 25 members of that title-winning team are still on this year's roster. Conversely, the Saints have a total of three players with Super Bowl experience.
At this point some of you might be asking yourself, "what about Arizona last year?" True, the Cardinals were a first-timer and they nearly beat the Steelers while easily getting the cover. But keep in mind they had a Super Bowl-winning veteran at quarterback in Kurt Warner. And his calming influence and experience was the difference in my book.
Reflecting back on the NFC Championship game, I bet the Saints at -3 after buying down the half point and was extremely fortunate to walk away with a push in a game they should have lost. Forget about the last drive of regulation when Favre's faux pas and a costly penalty cost the Vikings a chance to win the game. If not for the five turnovers, Minnesota should have and could have won that day, beating New Orleans on its homefield in the Superdome. In many ways, that was the Saints' Super Bowl.
Take the Saints out of the Superdome and you're also removing a "12th man" for them as the crowd noise is no longer present as is the artificial turf that makes an athletic team all that faster. And think back to how New Orleans struggled on the road in the second half of the season, barely beating Atlanta (26-23) and Washington (33-30 in OT) in early December, struggling to overcome lowly St. Louis (28-23) in mid-November.
Much has been made about the Saints being able to hammer Brett Favre throughout the NFC championship game.$,. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams threw the kitchen sink at Favre, who lost his mobility in the pocket a decade ago and was playing behind a good - not great - offensive line. Williams will undoubtedly try the same approach against Peyton Manning, but keep in mind he was sacked just 10 times during the regular season; twice each in the playoff games against the Ravens and Jets, who are defensively a step above the Saints when it comes to generating a pass rush.
One thing to keep in mind: Manning is 5-2 SU (5-1-1 ATS) vs. Williams' defenses over the years (he held a similar position at AFC South rivals Jacksonville and Tennessee you might recall), averaging 65% completions and 285 yards a game with 13 TDs and 4 interceptions. And in those seven games he was sacked just seven times.
Manning is the best in the business of finding someone when under pressure. Focus on Reggie Wayne and you get burned by Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie; just ask the Jets as that unheralded duo combined for 27 receptions in the AFC Championship game. And don't forget Manning has perhaps one of the top three tight ends in the business in Dallas Clark.
This is a tight price with Indianapolis around 5 as I post this play on Friday afternoon (3:00 P.M. Eastern); I anticipate the price might go up a bit as the game approaches once the public weighs in on the Colts. But this is not an insurmountable number to cover as history has shown us the Super Bowl is rarely a closely contested affair; 21 of the 43 games have been decided by 14 points or more; 32 by at least a touchdown.
Only eight times in Super Bowl history has the straight-up winner failed to cover. And SU winners are 9-1 ATS in the postseason with the only loser being the Saints versus Minnesota. But that trend only extends one I've updated for you weekly in my videos this season as SU winners are a combined 208-53-5 ATS in the regular and postseason combined for a spread-covering clip of 79.7%. Throw in the preseason and that figure jumps to nearly 83%. That's a trend I'm not bucking as I'm backing Indianapolis 28-20.
Prop Plays
These are NOT rated releases; they're just fun plays to make SMALL wagers on if you're interested. Watch my video on my homepage for my thoughts on props and details on why I like these particular plays.
My selection for each is in bold beneath each listing.
Drew Brees Total passing attempts - Over/Under of 35.5
(Over -135)
Will Peyton Manning throw a 3rd quarter TD pass?
Yes (+145)
Will either team score 3 straight times without the other team scoring?
No (+145)
The first score of game will be Touchdown or Field Goal.
Field Goal (+190)
Will there be a defensive or special teams score?
Yes (+145)
Total Sacks by both teams - Over/Under of 3.5
Over (+200)
MVP Potential Winner:
Reggie Wayne (10-1)
Over/Under on time Carrie Underwood singing the National Anthem is 1:42
Under (-150)
St. Bernadine Sports
2* Iona -14
Teddy Covers
Magic
Maryland
BLAZER
Saints +5
Ethan Law
2% New Orleans Saints +5
LARRY NESS
Shocker Of the Year - Cincinnati
Cincinnati is tough at home and needs a marquee win to boost its NCAA Tournament resume. The No. 3 Orange is a perfect upset candidate today. Star forward Wes Johnson landed hard on the court after being fouled during Tuesday’s win over Providence. It looked bad, yet he stayed in the game but only played just a few minutes in the second half – SU didn’t need him with a big lead. Johnson has some pain in his leg but did return to practice on Thursday and should play Sunday. Johnson is the team’s heart and soul, leading the Orange in scoring (16.7 ppg) and rebounding (9.7 rpg). SU is 22-1 for the first time ever (4-1 ATS on the road) and has won nine games in a row since losing to Pitt. On the opposite side of the court; UC is a totally different team at home – it has lost four of its past six games overall, but all four came on the road. Cashmere Wright has started at the point recently. He moves Deonta Vaughn to the two, which is a more natural position because he’s a scorer. Lance Stephenson’s been coming off the bench, but I expect him to start against Syracuse (note: the Bearcats always play tough in front of the hometown crowd; 12-1 SU their last 13 at Fifth Third Arena). The Orange nearly were upset in their last road game, at DePaul, and have UConn, Louisville and Georgetown following the Bearcats. Plus Cincy is squarely on the NCAA bubble and “needs” this one much more; grab the points.
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
10* So.Florida +8
7* Cincy +4.5
7* Ohio St -19
5* UNC +7
5* No.Colorado -11
MustWinSports
5 DIME INDIANAPOLIS MONEYLINE (-200)
Sportsbetsnow
2 units Cincinnati +4.5
4 units Indy -4.5
PROPS
Total Receiving Yards - Austin Collie (Ind)
Over 45.5 -152
Total Receiving Yards - Pierre Garcon (Ind)
Over 63.5 -120
First Touchdown Scorer
Dallas Clark +700
Mike Neri Sports
3* New Orleans +5
3* New Orleans +190
3* New Orleans and Indianapolis UNDER 57
Play Top Props as ONE UNIT
TOP PROP: Total punts made in the game by both teams UNDER 8 -135
TOP PROP: Will there be a score in the last 3min 30 seconds of the game Yes (Score Last 3min30sec) -200
TOP PROP: Total Rushing Yards – Pierre Thomas Over 60½ -130
TOP PROP: Will Dallas Clark score a TD in the game? Yes -145
TOP PROP: Will there be a defensive or special teams touchdown scored in the game Yes (Defensive/Special Teams TD) +120
TOP PROP: Reggie Bush OVER 53.5 combined rush/rec yards -130
OPINION: Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game Yes (Both make 33+ yard FG) +170
OPINION: Will there be a score in the last 2 minutes of the 1st half? Yes (Score in the 2mins of 1H) -300
OPINION: Total Receptions – Reggie Wayne Over 6 -120
Craig Davis
75 Dime – SAINTS
10 Dime – MARYLAND
SAINTS --- In a similar fashion to last year, I'm more comfortable backing an explosive offense GETTING points rather than a supposed good defense giving points. Granted, last year's version of the Pittsburgh Steelers wasn't quite the offensive juggernaut the Colts were this year, but it's really not as wide of a margin as you might think. The Steelers of 2008 ran the ball much better than the Colts of 2009, but the Colts obviously throw it better than the Steelers did a year ago. Either way, I just don't feel comfortable backing a team by at least five points who could easily allow, at worst, a backdoor cover to a team that can score from anywhere on the field.
I first want to look at the Colts and why I believe they are susceptible to not only failing to cover the five points, but also losing this game SU. If anyone tells you to forget the regular season and ONLY look at the playoffs, you need to kick them in the teeth and tell them to get as far away from you as possible. The Super Bowl is the culmination of the ENTIRE body of work, from early September through the beginning of February, and we must all realize certain teams will slip up from time to time during that lengthy process... but we can never dismiss anything that happens along the way.
Before we look at each team individually, I want to first compare common opponents (including the playoffs). Keep in mind, I'm not saying this is a great barometer when trying to handicap a game, but it does give you a sense of how these teams have fared against the same type of competition. Early in the season, the Colts went to Miami and had to come back on four separate occasions to pull off a 27-23. In my opinion, Miami laid out the blueprint as one of the better ways to beat the Colts (though they never finished their business). Miami possessed the ball for nearly 46 of 60 minutes, keeping Peyton Manning and company on the sidelines in hopes of getting him a little rusty and out of rhythm. It didn't work, but it did allow Miami to not get blown out and have a legit shot to win in the end. New Orleans also visited Miami this season, and nearly suffered a worse fate than Indy. They fell behind 24-10 at halftime and actually trailed 31-10 at one point in the third quarter, but used a 22-0 spurt in the 4th quarter to secure a 46-34 win... once again proving there is no deficit too large for this offense to overcome.
Indy and New Orleans both pummeled Arizona, with the Colts beating them by 21 and the Saints beating them by 31. Neither game was very close.
The Colts and Saints both played the Jets (Indy got them twice), and both came out on top (I'm not going to count the regular season matchup). New Orleans did it with defense while Indy did it with a second-half surge after falling behind 17-6 late in the second quarter.
Both played Buffalo, but to Indy's credit it was the second team that got abused. The Saints completely destroyed the Bills as I believe Indy would have done had they played their starters.
However, the one game I'd like to pay the most attention to is the matchup with New England. Both Indy and New Orleans got the Patriots in a primetime game (Sunday and Monday night) and both played at home. Now, tell me who you were more impressed with... New Orleans whipping the Patriots by 21 (after calling the dogs off in the 4th) or the Colts who needed a bone-head decision from Bill Belichick to secure a one-point win? Honestly, I don't really care if both teams won or both teams lost, but the Pats were a playoff team and likely the best team to use for our comparison. Tom Brady torched the Indy secondary to the tune of 375 yards and 3 touchdowns. Brady threw for 237 yard, no TDs and two INTs vs. the Saints. Kevin Faulk rushed for a game-high 79 yards vs. the Colts. Faulk was non-existent vs. the Saints, though Laurence Maroney did rush for 64. Clearly the Saints beat this very same Patriots team SOUNDLY... just two weeks after the Colts earned their miracle win.
I don't bring these games up to necessarily compare stats or who fell behind by a larger margin... I bring them up for those people who have been telling me that the Saints aren't even in the same league with the Colts. For those people who tell me that Peyton Manning is clearly, head-and-shoulders ahead of Drew Brees. For those who keep reminding me that the Saints struggled to beat the Vikings at home two weeks ago. But as you can see, these two teams have played a lot of the same teams this year... and the results are eerily similar. So tell me, are the Colts really SUPERIOR in this matchup? If you look at only common opponents, I think it's safe to say not only are the Saints every bit as "classy" as the Colts, but they actually played better against the same set of teams.
Now let's quickly look back at the Colts 2009 regular season and see just how many times they were involved in close games with LESSER offenses than what New Orleans brings to the table. San Francisco came to Indy, led the game at halftime, and nearly pulled the upset. Colts held on for an 18-14 win. How about Jacksonville? I realize the Jags have perenially played the Colts tough, but a 2-point win and a 4-point win is hardly anything to get excited about if you're a Colts' backer today. Houston? The Texans actually had the lead in both meetings, but the Colts imposed their will in the second half of both games and won the first meeting by 3 points and the second game by 8. How about the Ravens? A late Joe Flacco interception (with the team already clearly in field goal range) cost the Ravens a potential win and the Colts held on for a 17-15 win. My point? As good as the Colts are, several teams were easily able to keep the game close with a chance to win in the end. I'm not asking the Saints to win, I'm just asking them to keep it close.
A smart handicapper who is siding with one team or the other in this game doesn't necessarily need to look at which team is better on paper, a smart handicapper puts his clients in the best position to win, and there are far more scenarios that favor the underdog Saints here today. Depending on the angle you want to take, you can make arguments as to why each team is better, but in the end it's all just an opinion. What I'm doing is looking at both teams over the entire season and giving you the team I think puts us in the best position to win money. The general public LOVES to bet the favorites and at last check, nearly 2 out of every three bets has been placed on the Colts. That's GREAT news for us.
What's even better is that despite the heavy money on the favorite, the line is actually coming down a bit. That's called reverse line movement and although it's not a sole reason to bet a team, it sure does help. We all saw the Saints struggle with the Vikings while the Colts decimated the Jets in the second half. As soon as Vegas opened this line, the public flooded in on the Colts. And considering this game is being played at a neutral site, the 5-point line would normally tell us (using the standard 3-point home field advantage) the Colts would be favored by 8 or 9 at home and would actually be favored by 2 or 3 IN New Orleans. Obviously that's ridiculous and I think Vegas might be begging us to take the Colts.
Folks, the bottom line is... we have two very talented teams who are more than capable of winning this game. The Colts have the advantage at the QB position, the Saints have the advantage at RB, both teams have good WRs and TEs, both have solid O-lines and D-lines, and both teams have solid linebackers and defensive backs. The Saints have the advantage in special teams with Garrett Hartley, Reggie Bush and Courtney Roby (don't forget about him). When all is said and done and the smoke clears, the Saints may not end up winning this game but I just can't imagine them losing by more than a field goal. 75-dime Super Bowl Winner #2 in a row on the New Orleans Saints PLUS the number.
MARYLAND --- Even back when the Tar Heels were dominating the world, they still found ways to struggle against Maryland. The Terps have, surprisingly, won three of the last four meetings with the Heels and have covered four straight in this series. Now, as Carolina continues to struggle and Maryland seems to just be getting better, I can't help but backing the Terrapins even on Super Bowl Sunday when football rules the roost. Having picked my spots carefully this year, I have successfully picked on or against Carolina four times so far this year, including my latest winner WITH the Heels over their rival NC State. But as you read in that analysis, I will always back the Heels vs. NC State because they just seem to own the Wolfpack. But they aren't playing their rival today and I can see this group actually getting blown out of the gym. These kids aren't stupid... they know they will need a miracle to make the NCAA Tournament. I'm not suggesting they will give up, but this team is a far cry from last year's championship team that ran roughshod through the tourney and were never really challenged. This year's version of Carolina is younger, less experienced and getting more and more frustrated with every loss. Maryland, on the other hand, has won five of their last six and seven of their last nine and hasn't lost a home game in conference yet this year. In fact, they've only dropped one home affair this year and it came in one of those "sleeper" type games to William & Mary. Play that game 10 times and Maryland wins 9 of them. Enough said. Maryland is not only better than Carolina, they are in contention for the ACC Title and need this win to continue to keep pace with Duke for the conference crown. Terps roll today.
Prop Bets
1st Half Completions -- Drew Brees (11.5) (-125) --- OVER
1st Half Total Interceptions --- UNDER 1 (-115)
Longest Completeion Drew Brees --- UNDER 39.5 (-115)
Receptions by Joseph Addai --- OVER 2.5 (100)
First Score of the Game/Field Goal or TD ---- Field Goal (200)
WAYNE ROOT
Vegas Legend- Cincinnati +4.5
Millionaire- Indiana +9.5
Millionaire- Saints & Over
Teddy June
10* Bearcats
10* Saints
RAS
2 Units Eastern Washington