Wunderdog
2 Units New Orleans +5
FIRST QUARTER UNDER 10.5
FOURTH QUARTER OVER 14
OVERTIME - NO
BLOCKED PUNT - NO
King Creole
2* BEST BET: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
1* OVER THE TOTAL
Last year, we got lucky. In each of the previous 4 Super Bowls… we scored a winner with the ‘UNDER’. In the Steelers / Cardinals game last season, we came out with a 3*** Play on the ‘OVER’, With 9 minutes to go in the game, we needed 19 total points. We were very fortunate to get 3 TD’s in that time span, including the game-winner with 35 seconds left. So it seems like we enjoy a little extra ‘mojo’ in the NFL playoffs as far as Lady Luck goes.
First off, we’ll run through the applicable Playoff and Super Bowl Systems and Tendencies that are active on Sunday.
SUPER BOWL:
1-5 ATS for all Super Bowl favorites of 4 > points (Colts).
0-3 ATS for all Super Bowl favorites off a SU home win w/ 100 > rushing yards (Colts).
1-5-1 ATS for all Super Bowl favorites of 3 > points playing off BB double-digit Playoff wins (Colts).
4-0 ATS for all Super Bowl teams who won 8 < games the previous season (SAINTS).
8-0 O/U for all Super Bowl teams who allowed 17 < points and 7 3 points playing off a SU win but an ATS loss (SAINTS).
3-0 ATS: All PLAYOFF teams who allowed 150 > rushing yards in their last Playoff win (SAINTS).
4-0 ATS: All PLAYOFF dogs of 4 > points playing off an ATS loss… and 8 < wins the previous year (SAINTS).
7-1 ATS: All PLAYOFF teams off a SU win in which they scored AND allowed 24 points in each of their last 2 Playoff games (SAINTS).
0-3-1 ATS: All PLAYOFF games with an OU line of 47 > points… and an OU line of 40 points when both teams have a current W/L percentage of .800 > (Colts).
3-9 ATS: All PLAYOFF favorites in the point spread range of –4 to –5.5 points (Colts).
8-1 O/U: All PLAYOFF games with an OU line of > 53 points.
7-0 O/U: All PLAYOFF favorites of 6 points (Colts).
6-1 O/U: All PLAYOFF underdogs off a SU win BUT an ATS loss (Saints).
SCOTT GREEN is the Referee for Super Bowl XliV. The UNDERDOG went 13-3 ATS in his 16 games this season.
As great as Peyton Manning is, he’s not God. His career record in Playoff games is only 9-8 SU. It’s the Underdog QB that actually has the better numbers for the season. In this year’s Playoffs, Drew Brees has a 116.1 rating with 6 TDs and 0 INTs; Manning 104.6, 5 TD, 1 INT. In the regular season, Brees had a passer rating 10 points higher with 5 fewer INTs as well.
Sharp players are always looking for Underdogs that figure to outrush their favored opponent. The Saints had the 6th best rushing offense in the NFL in the regular season, at 120 yds a game. The Colts were dead LAST in the NFL.
While neither of these defenses were much to write home about during the regular season, they have both stepped up their play here in the playoffs. New Orleans held an explosive Arizona offense to 14 points, and one of the NFL's best and most balanced offenses in the Vikings to 28 points. For a team whose defense has been dogged as much as the Saints, these were two very impressive performances. Most important was their pass defense against Minnesota. They held Favre to a 70.0 rating, 1 TD and 2 INTs. They did have some problems with Adrian Peterson, who gave them their 3 other scores. But as mentioned above, what part of Indy's rushing game could even hope to give them that kind of balance? When one looks at the Saints, they don’t see a GREAT defense… but one that is much better than it was the last couple seasons. Outside of the Minnesota game, they only gave up 28 points twice all season- on the road in Washington, and on the road in Miami. In an expected battle of passing yardage, it was actually NEW ORLEANS that held opposing QB’s much MORE in check than Indianapolis. In the Defensive PASSER RATING chart for 2009, we note that the SAINTS were the NFL’s 3rd BEST team. They allowed a passer rating of only 68.5 (behind the Jets and the Bills)…. And only 15 TD passes (while INTERCEPTING Tte ball 26 times!). Meanwhile, the Colts were ranked in the middle of the pack at #13 in this stat. They allowed MORE TD passes than interceptions.
Remember, the Colts won a LOT of close games this season. SEVEN of their wins were by only 4 points or less. And we’re not talking NFL powerhouses here. Their close wins were against the likes of the Jaguars, 48ers, Dolphins, and Titans.
Final score: NEW ORLEANS 37 / Indianapolis 31.
Evan Altemus
5 Units Indianapolis Colts -5.5
The biggest reason for this selection is the game last week between the Vikings and Saints. New Orleans was outgained by over 200 yards but Minnesota threw the game away by committing five turnovers. New Orleans has looked very suspect against Minnesota, Dallas, and a few other teams this season. They have also had the luxury of facing the toughest teams on their schedule at home, where they have a huge advantage. However, this game will be played on grass and on a neutral field, so they won’t have those advantages. Indianapolis absolutely torched a very good Jets defense in the 2nd half last week after they made the appropriate adjustments. New Orleans defense is nowhere near as dominant, and I expect the Colts to put up close to 40 points in this game. Meanwhile, Indianapolis’ defense has been under-rated this season. They have been able to contain most of the offenses they have faced despite dealing with multiple injuries. The Colts defense was able to contain New York and Baltimore the last two weeks, and I expect them to contain a Saints offense that is mostly one dimensional with their pass game. Indianapolis’ weakness is with their rushing defense anyway, so they match-up very well against the Saints pass first offense. Experience is also a big factor here, as several members of the Colts have playoff and Super Bowl experience, while the Saints players do not. Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in the league, and I don’t expect him to be slowed down in this game. Look for the Colts to win handily and cover the small point spread.
The Duke's Sports
Saints/Colts Over (57) for 2 Units
Both of these teams' have dynamic big play making players. And we're probably going to see some no huddle from both offenses during this game to tire out the defenses. Both offense offer superior point making opportunities and we don't feel either defense will be able to keep this score down. Colts QB Manning hasn't been stopped by any team this season and we don't believe the Saints can slow him down either. On the other hand, Pass rush specialist Freeney is slowed by an ankle injury and we don't see him getting enough push force to speed rush effectively. And cagey QB Brees has great pocket awareness and a load of talented receivers to go to, especially with an extra fraction of a second to throw. The Saints are 5-0-1 O/U in their last 6 playoff games and 14-6-1 O/U in their last 21 after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Colts are in an "over" trend too at 5-1 O/U run and 13-6 O/U after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Both of these teams have a character of passing first to set up the run consequently, we see an extended long game with both teams doing what they do best.
Rocketman
5* New Orleans +5
I've felt like the Saints were the team to beat this year for quite some time now. Drew Brees, in my opinion, is the best quarterback in this game here tonight. The Saints defense will have to show up and stop Peyton Manning, but the Saints offense will be what helps the Saints win this game or at the very least cover this generous number. New Orleans is scoring 32.6 points per game overall this year and 32 points per game on the road this season. Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. My power ratings has New Orleans to win this game by 2.48 points outright. We'll play New Orleans for 5 units tonight!
Sal Devito
3* New Orleans Saints
Underdogs are currently on an outstanding 6-2 run in the Big Game. I'm backing the Saints here as I believe that the line is inflated due to New Orleans poor performance 2 weeks ago vs Minnesota. In a sloppy performance that should have resulted in a loss the Saints had 5 turnovers (3 lost fumbles, 2 Ints and 6 total fumbles). I expect them to take better control of the ball. The Saints averaged 31.9 PPG throughout the year compared to 26.0 PPG for the Colts. New Orleans gave up 21.3 PPG on Defense but forced 39 Turnovers during the regular Season. New Orleans Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams has had plenty of time to study Manning and has said that his defense will have to "Put some remember- me hits " on him if they are going to win the game. I believe that the Saints defense will step up and keep this game close. The Public expects a shootout but will be let down as I believe the key factor in this game will be Defense and Time of Possession. Time of Possession will go to the Saints as they have premier RB Reggie Bush to go to. Bush has shown signs of a more Physical game during this playoff run and I expect him to "Step up" his game in the grand-daddy of them all. This should be the defining game for Bush and QB Brees, and New Orleans will finally establish itself as a winning team and shed the"aints" moniker that has haunted them for Decades. Quarterback Drew Brees is 9-7 SU and 10-6 ATS against AFC competition, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS over the last two seasons. A Stat that I cannot pass up. 3* Superbowl Winner - New Orleans Saints.
SUPERCOLT SPORTS
Indianapolis Colts -4.5
Over 57
Clayton Rice
3* Saints
2* Under